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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Polynomial-Time Mistake-Bounded Language Generation

作者:
H\'ector Jimenez↗Alexander Kozachinskiy↗Vicente Opazo↗

arXiv:2606.16077v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this note, we introduce a polynomial-time version of the mistake-bounded language generation (MBLG) framework due to Kleinberg, Peale, and Reingold (2026). We observe that the family of parities of variables, and the family of conjunctions of literals, are polynomial-time MBLG. Our main result states that the family of monotone Boolean functions with polynomially-many maxterms is polynomial-time MBLG. This family includes all monotone Boolean functions, computable by polynomial-size decision trees. Our technique can be presented as a new combinatorial game about writing numbers on a board.

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02.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Multipartite synchronization residuals in driven-dissipative spin networks

作者:
Jatin Ghildiyal↗Shubhrangshu Dasgupta↗Asoka Biswas↗

arXiv:2606.24360v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce a phase-space measure of quantum synchronization that quantifies relative phase localization for two-qubit and three-qubit systems. This measure is built from the first angular moments of phase distributions obtained from Husimi-Q quasiprobability functions. Using this framework, we formulate a new class of synchronization residuals, motivated by subadditivity-type hierarchies of information-theoretic measures. We investigate these residuals in a driven-dissipative quantum Rabi network in the dispersive adiabatic regime. We show that, for two qubits, collective synchronization remains bounded by single-qubit contributions yielding a non-negative bipartite residual. The three-qubit nonequilibrium steady state exhibits a negative tripartite residual, which indicates collective phase synchronization, which cannot be described by pairwise decomposition. The corresponding entropy-based residuals, however, remain non-negative in both cases. Our results therefore, underscore that phase-sensitive synchronization measures and entropic correlation measures probe distinct aspects of open-system dynamics.

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03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Realistic noise synthesis reduces bias and improves tissue microstructure estimation with supervised machine learning

作者:
Bradley G. Karat↗Ma\"eliss Jallais↗Ali R. Khan↗Santiago Aja-Fern\'andez↗Jelle Veraart↗Marco Palombo↗

arXiv:2606.02044v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Diffusion MRI enables non-invasive probing of tissue microstructure, but accurate parameter estimation is challenged by noise-related effects. In supervised machine learning frameworks trained on simulated data, discrepancies between the noise characteristics of simulated and acquired signals introduce a form of covariate shift, whereby the input signal distribution differs between training and inference. We investigated the impact of this mismatch on microstructure parameter estimation and propose a realistic noise synthesis (RNS) framework to mitigate it. RNS incorporates both the Rician expectation and the effective post-processing noise variance into simulated training signals. The Rician expectation was modelled using a noise standard deviation estimated with MPPCA, while the effective standard deviation was derived from spherical harmonic residuals of preprocessed data. The method was evaluated using the cylinder-zeppelin and the SANDI models on simulated datasets across multiple SNR levels and on in vivo diffusion data with repeated acquisitions. Sensitivity to noise misestimation was also assessed. Ignoring magnitude-induced noise effects during training produced systematic, SNR-dependent parameter bias, particularly at low SNR. Incorporating the Rician expectation substantially reduced bias to the level of noise-aware nonlinear least-squares fitting. Modelling the effective standard deviation further improved precision. Performance was largely independent of regression architecture but sensitive to accurate noise estimation. These findings demonstrate that realistic noise modelling in simulated training data mitigates signal-domain covariate shift and is essential for unbiased supervised microstructure estimation, particularly in low-SNR regimes associated with high b-values or high spatial resolution.

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04.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-11

Malaria Risk among Internally Mobile Individuals and Heterogeneous Mobility Patterns in Two Hypoendemic Communities: Implications for Malaria Elimination in the Peruvian Amazon.

作者:
Ramirez Saavedra↗Acosta↗Rodriguez↗Cabrera-Sosa↗Escalente↗A. A↗Vinetz↗J. M↗Torres↗Gamboa↗

Background: Human mobility is increasingly recognized as a key factor influencing malaria transmission dynamics, particularly in low-transmission settings approaching elimination. This study aimed to assess mobility patterns and their association with malaria risk in two hypoendemic communities in the Peruvian Amazon. Method: A longitudinal study was conducted in the communities of Libertad and Urcomirano (Mazan River basin). Monthly population screenings were combined with weekly active and passive case detection. A total of 678 individuals were enrolled. Mobility patterns were assessed through structured questionnaires, and social network analysis was used to characterize travel connections. Log-binomial regression analysis was applied to identify risk factors associated with malaria infection. Result: Internally, mobile individuals in Libertad showed a higher malaria incidence (>32.47 cases per 1,000 person-months) than those in Urcomirano (

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05.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-15

Multiple Fault Analysis and Drug Therapy on Signaling Pathways Using Dynamic Bayesian Network-based Model

作者:
Chowdhury↗Maitra↗Agarwal↗Sur↗Sarkar↗Majumder↗Lodh↗

Cell growth is an intricate biological phenomenon that is closely regulated by the interplay between various growth factors and transcription factors. Signaling pathways are the main mediators in this event, which provide the driving force for mitosis or sometimes meiosis. However, when malfunctions occur within the biological network, they can cause uncontrolled cell division, regardless of external stimuli. By employing Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs), these malfunctions can be explicitly simulated, offering insights into their effects on cellular behavior and growth regulation. To a significant extent, the resultant outcomes can be mitigated through the use of reduced drug combinations. This study delves into the intricacies of signaling pathway behavior under the influence of concurrent malfunctions. Initially, we replicate the effects of these dysfunctions within DBNs. Subsequently, drug therapy is applied to alleviate their impact. Our methodology introduces a parameter known as efficiency_score, enabling the identification of optimized drug combinations without prior knowledge of specific dysfunctions. Particularly relevant in the context of realistic cancer conditions, these tailored drug inhibition points demonstrate enhanced efficacy compared to conventional treatments. Leveraging GPU acceleration throughout the modeling process accelerates the analysis of multiple faults within the biological networks, rendering our approach notably faster and more efficient.

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07.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

A More-Than-Human Approach to Designing for Mental Health: Remixing Prototypes for the Contexts of Complex Healthcare Infrastructures

作者:
Allen↗Stasiak↗Lottridge↗

Digital mental health tools (DMHTs) often fail to be successfully implemented in clinical settings. While user- and human-centred design frameworks are frequently proposed for developing effective tools, they are insufficient to address the sociotechnical complexity of healthcare environments. This paper addresses this limitation by detailing the application of a more-than-human design framework to incorporate wider contextual factors into design decisions. To demonstrate the application of this more-than-human design framework, we present a case study showcasing the design of one specific feature within a DMHT intended to support Health Improvement Practitioners (HIPs) in New Zealand's Integrated Primary Mental Health and Addictions (IPMHA) service. Our process blends usage-context storyboards with interface prototypes, using think-aloud interviews to test the contextual fit of our prototypes. The initial design concept failed due to contextual factors such as inconsistent wait times and the administrative burden on clients and clinic staff. This led to a pivot to a more context-appropriate, practitioner-focused, in-session concept for digital psychometric administration and automated scoring. This case study demonstrates that for DMHTs to be viable within complex healthcare environments, design must focus on more than the needs of a single user, incorporating multiple stakeholders and contextual variables across the wider service-delivery context.

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08.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-17

Optical fibre gripper for high-performance 3D micromanipulation

作者:
Deng Pan↗

Optical tweezers offer precise, non-contact control, but operate in a limited force regime and impose strict requirements on the characteristics of the targets as well as the environmental conditions1–4. Millimetre-scale mechanical tweezers can offer higher gripping force but are not suitable for precise manipulations5–11. Integrating microgrippers directly at the optical fibres provides a new approach for precise micromanipulation. However, existing fibre-integrated tweezers still face challenges in achieving high-performance manipulation of micro-objects (for example, single cells) within narrow spaces, mainly due to simplified architectures, constrained designs and millimetre-scale footprints12–14. Here we report a three-dimensional (3D) optical fibre gripper (OFG), which is fabricated by two-step, two-photon polymerization. The OFG consists of rigid photoresist microclaws and soft thermoresponsive hydrogel muscle doped with silver nanoparticles, and its size is only 38 × 38 × 61 μm3. The OFG exhibits a force-to-mass ratio of about 340 μN mg−1, outperforming previously reported fibre-integrated tweezers by one to two orders of magnitude. The OFG can manipulate opaque particles, irregular micromechanical components and diverse single-cell types. We further demonstrated its potential in 3D microassembly of complex microdevices (bearings, shafts and gearboxes) and biomimetic sampling in the narrow environment (<300 μm). These results position the OFG as a compact fibre-tip manipulator for 3D micromanipulation, offering reversible and tunable gripping in an intermediate force regime between optical field trapping and millimetre-scale mechanical tweezers. A miniature three-dimensional optical fibre gripper enables powerful, precise micromanipulation of particles and single cells in confined spaces, bridging the gap between optical and mechanical tweezers.

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09.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Learning New Tasks via Reusable Skills: Skill-Compositional Experts for Embodied Continual Learning

作者:
Shuaike Zhang↗Shaokun Wang↗Haoyu Tang↗Jianlong Wu↗Liqiang Nie↗

Embodied Continual Learning (ECL) aims to enable robots to continually acquire new manipulation tasks while retaining previously learned behaviors under closed-loop control. Compared with conventional continual learning, ECL suffers from more severe catastrophic forgetting. Feature drift accumulated under closed-loop control progressively propagates through sequential decision-making, leading to degradation of previously learned behaviors. A key challenge in ECL lies in structured skill reuse across continually evolving tasks, since existing methods primarily focus on skill learning without explicitly organizing them for coherent task execution. To address this issue, we propose SCE, a Skill-Compositional Experts framework for ECL. SCE builds a skill base via Compositional Skill Grounding (CSG), which decomposes task demonstrations into reusable skills. Based on this, Dual Execution-and-Transition Experts (DETE) enable new task learning through skill composition, where one branch ensures skill execution and the other supports transitions between skills for coherent behavior. Experiments on LIBERO benchmarks and real-world manipulation tasks demonstrate that SCE consistently improves retention and overall task performance. Further feature drift analyses and ablation studies verify the effectiveness of our method. Project website: https://eqcy.github.io/sce/.

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10.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

Care Delivery Gap framework: a proof-of-concept patient-reported measure of guideline-referenced care-process omissions in sickle cell disease

作者:
Agbalalah↗Rowaiye↗

Abstract Background:Sickle cell disease (SCD) is concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, where delivery of guideline-referenced care remains challenging. Current evaluation approaches rely largely on access indicators and clinical outcomes, which do not directly measure care delivery. We developed the Care Delivery Gap (CDG) framework, a patient-reported approach for identifying care-process omissions, and conducted a proof-of-concept study to assess feasibility and explore variation across income strata. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional framework-development study involving a proof-of-concept sample of 52 individuals with SCD or caregivers recruited through clinics and moderated SCD communities across Africa, North America, and Europe between June 2025 and March 2026. The CDG framework assessed patient-reported omissions in specialist involvement, follow-up continuity, cardiovascular screening, and biochemical surveillance. Analyses were descriptive. Results: Substantial multi-domain care-process omissions were identified despite high reported healthcare engagement. Across geographic income strata, cardiovascular screening was reported by 4/35 (11%) LMIC versus 16/17 (94%) HIC participants, and regular follow-up within the preceding 12 months by 14/35 (40%) versus 16/17 (94%), respectively. High CDG scores, representing 1 omissions across three or four domains, occurred in 20/35 (57%) LMIC compared with 1/17 (6%) HIC participants. Similar disparities were observed across specialist review and vitamin B12 surveillance domains. Conclusion: A structured patient-reported framework identified multi-domain omissions in guideline-referenced SCD care, including among individuals reporting healthcare access. The divergence between access indicators and reported care delivery suggests that service contact alone may not reflect care quality. The framework provides a feasible foundation for future process-level quality measurement in high-burden settings.

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11.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-24

Sim-to-Real Betting on the E-Process: Bringing "simulators" to anytime-valid confidence sequences

作者:
Yujia Chen↗Bowen Weng↗

arXiv:2606.24038v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This note describes an integration of the sim-to-real performance estimate with betting (from Chen et al.) and the safe anytime-valid inference (from Ramdas et al.). Using the scaled simulators. The method produces efficient, reliable certificates for the mean estimate, an approach that is especially valuable in robot performance testing. This note gives a primary, self-contained account of the construction; preliminaries of the respective methods are kept at a minimum, and one shall refer to the original works for full detail. Some synthetic examples demonstrating the proposed algorithm can be found at https://github.com/ISUSAIL/Bet4Sim2Real-EProcess.

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12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Sensor-Conditioned Representation Learning via Scene-Relevant Observation Quotients

作者:
Yan Jiao↗Pin-Han Ho↗Limei Peng↗

arXiv:2606.16210v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Learned representations in intelligent sensing systems are often evaluated by reconstruction fidelity or downstream prediction accuracy, but these criteria do not specify which latent distinctions are justified by the sensing process. In sensor-conditioned environments, nuisance factors can change measurements without changing the scene, while distinct scenes may be indistinguishable under limited sensing capability. This paper formulates sensor-conditioned representation correctness as preserving sensing-supported scene distinctions while suppressing nuisance-induced and sensor-unsupported variation. We introduce the scene-relevant observation quotient, a representation target induced by sensing-supported distinguishability after nuisance canonicalization, and develop Observation-Quotient Tucker-Structured Autoencoding (OQ-TSAE), a scene-nuisance factorized framework with diagnostics for false distinction, false merge, nuisance sensitivity, and latent ordering consistency. Experiments on a controlled benchmark show that quotient-consistent supervision improves representation-correctness diagnostics over reconstruction-oriented, metric-learning, and contrastive-learning baselines. Sensitivity, perturbation, and ablation studies show the importance of quotient-aligned supervision, reliable quotient relations, and quotient geometry. Complementary real-radar experiments show that a reconstruction-only OQ-TSAE variant retains competitive downstream utility, robustness under observation degradation, and low seed-to-seed variability. These results suggest that sensor-conditioned representations should be evaluated not only by predictive utility, but also by whether their latent geometry preserves sensing-justified scene distinctions.

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13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

SPATIA: Multimodal Generation and Prediction of Spatial Cell Phenotypes

作者:
Zhenglun Kong↗Mufan Qiu↗John Boesen↗Xiang Lin↗Sukwon Yun↗Tianlong Chen↗Manolis Kellis↗Marinka Zitnik↗

Understanding how cellular morphology, gene expression, and spatial context jointly shape tissue function is a central challenge in biology. Image-based spatial transcriptomics technologies now provide high-resolution measurements of cell images and gene expression profiles, but existing methods typically analyze these modalities in isolation or at limited resolution. We address the problem by introducing SPATIA, a multi-level generative and predictive model that learns unified, spatially aware representations by fusing morphology, gene expression, and spatial context from the cell to the tissue level. SPATIA also incorporates a spatially conditioned generative framework with confidence-aware OT reweighting and morphology-profile alignment for modeling target-state morphology distributions. Specifically, we propose a confidence-aware flow matching objective that reweights weak optimal-transport pairs based on uncertainty. We further apply morphology-profile alignment to encourage biologically meaningful image generation, enabling the modeling of microenvironment-dependent phenotypic transitions. We assembled a multi-scale dataset consisting of 25.9 million cell-gene pairs across 17 tissues. We benchmark SPATIA against 18 models across 12 tasks, spanning categories such as phenotype generation, annotation, clustering, gene imputation, and cross-modal prediction. SPATIA achieves improved performance over state-of-the-art models, improving generative fidelity by 8% and predictive accuracy by up to 3%.

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14.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Amplified Arctic iceberg traffic reshapes benthic biodiversity

作者:
Thomas Krumpen↗

The Arctic is undergoing rapid warming, resulting in retreating sea ice and glaciers1, yet how cryospheric changes propagate into the deep ocean remains poorly understood2. Here we identify a climate-driven mechanism linking accelerating glacier disintegration to an increase in deep-sea hard-bottom habitats far beyond calving fronts. Seafloor observations in Fram Strait show a localized increase in the density and patchiness of dropstones delivered by debris-laden icebergs. At the same time, four decades of shipboard records show that the occurrence of icebergs increased abruptly in the early 2000s. Backtracking links these icebergs to the main outlet glaciers in northeast Greenland and the Russian High Arctic. In northeast Greenland, the timing of glacier destabilization coincides with this rise, whereas sparse satellite coverage in the Russian sector limits temporal attribution despite indications of enhanced glacier activity. A model sensitivity study shows that, apart from intensified calving, a more dynamic sea ice cover enhances downstream transport of glacial ice. Along these pathways, increased iceberg activity could reshape deep-sea habitats through enhanced melt and associated lithogenic input, and elevate navigational hazards as maritime traffic expands in the Arctic. Although modest compared with the iceberg discharges of Pleistocene Heinrich events, this mechanism provides a modern analogue of long-range cryospheric influence on the seafloor in a warming climate. Accelerated Arctic glacier disintegration and a more dynamic sea ice cover are increasing iceberg-delivered dropstones in the deep ocean, reshaping seafloor habitats and extending cryospheric impacts far beyond glaciers.

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15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

FastMix: Fast Data Mixture Optimization via Gradient Descent

作者:
Haoru Tan↗Sitong Wu↗Yanfeng Chen↗Jun Xia↗Ruobing Xie↗Bin Xia↗Xingwu Sun↗Xiaojuan Qi↗

arXiv:2606.14971v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While large and diverse datasets have driven recent advances in large models, identifying the optimal data mixture for pre-training and post-training remains a significant open problem. We address this challenge with FASTMIX, a novel framework that automates data mixture discovery while training only a single proxy model. Instead of relying on predefined heuristics or resource-intensive simulations, FASTMIX jointly optimizes mixture coefficients and model parameters, substantially improving efficiency and scalability over prior approaches. At the core of FASTMIX is a reformulation of mixture selection as a bilevel optimization problem. Under this reformulation, we show that optimizing mixture ratios is mathematically equivalent to assigning per-source loss weights under uniform source sampling. This embeds the mixture coefficients directly into the differentiable iterative optimization objective, enabling efficient, gradient-based optimization of both mixture and model. To solve the optimization problem, FASTMIX implements an approximate iterative optimization procedure, alternating between (i) updating model parameters on data sampled according to current mixture ratios (inner loop) and (ii) updating mixture ratios based on validation feedback (outer loop). Across pre- and post-training, FASTMIX outperforms baselines while drastically reducing search cost. Code (https://github.com/hrtan/fastmix)

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16.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Fisher geometry reshapes the effect of incompatibility in multiparameter quantum estimation

作者:
Jiayu He↗Matteo G. A. Paris↗

arXiv:2606.11343v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multiparameter quantum estimation faces two fundamental obstacles: sloppiness, i.e., anisotropy of the quantum Fisher information matrix (QFIM) that renders some parameter directions insensitive, and incompatibility, the non-commutativity of optimal measurements for different parameters. The trade-off bound $C_T$ captures their joint impact on precision, but it has remained unclear how the distribution of incompatibility across parameter planes affects its overall cost. Here we separate the total amount of incompatibility from its location. We introduce a dimensionless quantity $G_n^{(F)}$ that measures the alignment between the incompatibility distribution and the eigenvalues of the QFIM, and show how the Frobenius scale of the incompatibility contribution factorizes. We obtain a bound and prove the incompatibility cost lies between this bound and a rank-dependent multiple thereof. We also prove that at fixed sloppiness, or equivalently fixed Fisher volume, concentrating incompatibility into a single parameter plane reduces the optimized trade-off cost because the Fisher geometry can then be reshaped to allocate more Fisher area to that plane. A qutrit $SU(2)$ encoding numerically confirms that states with larger incompatibility strength can nevertheless incur a smaller cost if the matching factor $G$ is sufficiently small. Our results establish that the distribution of incompatibility relative to the Fisher eigenbasis is a central diagnostic for multiparameter estimation, beyond the total incompatibility strength.

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17.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

The use of Peres lattices in periodically driven systems

作者:
Luk\'a\v{s} Honsa↗Jan St\v{r}ele\v{c}ek↗Jakub Novotn\'y↗Pavel Cejnar↗

arXiv:2606.20009v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We demonstrate the strength of the method of Peres lattices in periodically driven quantum systems. The method, which has previously been used mostly in stationary systems, enables us to efficiently detect resonances in the driven system, to monitor the onset of chaos, and to recognize critical properties of the Floquet modes. It also allows quick comparisons of the spectra of Floquet modes for various driving Hamiltonians and transparent tests of the iterative approximation techniques based on effective stationary Hamiltonians.

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18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

TelcoAgent: A Scalable 5G Multi-KPM Forecasting With 3GPP-Grounded Explainability

作者:
Geon Kim↗Dara Ron↗Sukhdeep Singh↗Suyog Moogi↗Pranshav Gajjar↗V V N K Someswara Rao Koduri↗Een Kee Hong↗Vijay K. Shah↗

arXiv:2606.19821v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Key Performance Measurement (KPM) forecasting is essential for proactive network management of 5G and next-generation telecom networks. However, existing machine learning (ML) approaches face significant limitations in scalability and explainability, restricting their effectiveness in real-world deployments. We propose TelcoAgent, a foundation model-based framework that enables accurate, scalable, and explainable forecasting of multiple KPMs across diverse network cells without the need for site-specific training. Specifically, the framework comprises three key components: (i) an automated three-agent pipeline that constructs a 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) knowledge graph directly from specification documents, (ii) a scalable, time-series foundation model (TSFM)-based prediction pipeline to deliver accurate, zero-shot forecasting, and finally (iii) a reasoning and explanation pipeline that provides actionable, domain-grounded diagnostics. Evaluated using a 3-month, real-world, city-scale 5G KPM dataset from a U.S.-based network operator, TelcoAgent demonstrates high forecasting accuracy for all 7 considered KPMs per cell across 200 cells, while delivering explainable insights and actionable instructions to address network degradations.

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19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

A Longitudinal Attribute-Conditioned Neural Network for Modeling Health-State Transition Probabilities in Temporally Irregular Data: The LANTERN Framework

作者:
Bright Kwaku Manu↗Beckett Sterner↗Petar Jevtic↗

arXiv:2606.13880v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate estimation of long-term care transition probabilities is central to disability insurance pricing, reserving, and solvency assessment. Classical actuarial multi-state models commonly rely on Markov, semi-Markov, or proportional-hazard specifications, which provide a direct connection to cohort projection but may be restrictive for irregular longitudinal health data with nonlinear aging patterns and heterogeneous covariate histories. This paper develops a well-calibrated estimator of multi-state transition probabilities for irregular longitudinal health data. The model learns from individual health history, incorporates the time elapsed between observations, and conditions transition probabilities on demographic and socioeconomic attributes. It produces a valid probability distribution over the next observed health state, with four possible states: healthy, mild disability, severe disability, and death. Individual probabilities are aggregated by age group and origin state to form transition matrices compatible with actuarial cohort projection. Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, we compare the proposed estimator with logistic regression, gradient-boosted trees, a recurrent neural network, and a last-state persistence benchmark. The evaluation considers probabilistic accuracy, endpoint discrimination and calibration for severe disability and death, risk concentration, and transition matrix error after aggregation. The proposed estimator improves severe disability discrimination relative to logistic regression and gradient-boosted tree benchmarks, maintains strong calibration, and yields the lowest transition matrix error among the evaluated models in the held-out test analysis. Results show that a structured machine learning estimator can support long-term care transition modeling when judged by calibration and projection fidelity, beyond discrimination.

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20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Simulation-Augmented Multi-Step Split Conformal Prediction for Aggregated Forecasts

作者:
Andro Sabashvili↗

arXiv:2606.16356v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study uncertainty quantification for aggregated forecasting tasks such as annual totals and year-over-year growth rates. We propose SA-MSCP, a simulation-augmented multi-step split conformal method that generates future paths from cross-validated residuals using a block bootstrap and constructs prediction intervals from empirical quantiles. Experiments show that SA-MSCP improves empirical coverage over a simulated-path baseline for aggregated and growth-rate targets. Our results demonstrate that simulation-enhanced conformal calibration is an effective and general framework for uncertainty quantification in aggregated time-series forecasting.

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21.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-23

A novel biclustering algorithm for mining m<sup>6</sup>A co-methylation patterns based on beta-binomial distribution and data screening strategy

作者:
Zhaoyang Liu↗

by Zhaoyang Liu, Yuteng Xiao, Dao Xiang, Hao Shi, Kaijian Xia Studies have shown that m6A plays a key role in different life processes such as RNA metabolism, physiology and pathology. However, due to the complexity of life processes, its specific regulatory details are still not revealed. The computational approach based on co-methylation pattern mining of m6A sequencing data can assist in revealing its mechanism and save time and economic cost, however, the current algorithms suffer from the problems of insufficient robustness to low signal-to-noise data and unreliable performance. Based on this, this paper proposes an enhanced beta-binomial distribution biclustering algorithm (EBBM) based on data screening strategy. This algorithm is based on the framework of Bayesian, adopts Gibbs sampling method for parameter inference, and introduces the data screening strategy in the process of parameter inference, which effectively removes the problem that the low signal-to-noise data in the original sequencing data of m6A affects the reliability of the clustering results. The simulation experiment results show that this algorithm can effectively deal with the interference of low signal-to-noise data and accurately mine the co-methylation patterns pre-planted in the data, which is significantly better than the current mainstream biclustering algorithm. In real human m6A sequencing data with 32 samples, this algorithm mined two effective co-methylation patterns, which were enriched to different biological processes, such as negative regulation of phosphorylation and peptidyl lysine methylation, etc. The scoring results of GEO_Score indicate that the results of this algorithm are more biologically meaningful than the clustering results of current mainstream m6A co-methylation pattern mining algorithms.

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22.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Layer-Resolved Optimal Transport for Hallucination Detection in NMT and Abstractive Summarization

作者:
Mariia Onyshchuk↗Maksym-Vasyl Tarnavskyi↗Marta Sumyk↗

Optimal transport (OT) has been shown to detect hallucinations in neural machine translation (NMT) by measuring the geometric distance between cross-attention distributions and a reference distribution, without any supervision. We extend this analysis to all six decoder layers of the Fairseq DE-EN model ($N=3{,}414$), showing that Wass-to-Unif and Wass-to-Data are complementary detectors specialised across hallucination types, that detection is concentrated in layers L1–L4 with L5 anti-predictive for subtler types, and that hallucinated translations lack the exploratory attention phase present in correct translations from the first decoding step. We further evaluate whether the geometric signal transfers to abstractive summarization faithfulness detection: our unsupervised OT detector on AggreFact ($N=1{,}116$) achieves $57.2\%$/$57.6\%$ balanced accuracy on CNN/XSum – above chance but substantially below supervised MiniCheck-Flan-T5-L($69.9\%$/$74.3\%$). This gap is principled: unlike NMT hallucinations, unfaithful summaries can attend correctly to source tokens while misrepresenting their content, a failure mode invisible to concentration-based OT metrics by construction. Structural experiments on T5-base confirm consistent decoder organisation across depth, with Layer~3 showing peak concentration and Layer~12 being most critical for generation quality. Together, the results establish OT on cross-attention as a reliable detector when the failure mode is source disengagement, a principled interpretability tool regardless of task, and fundamentally limited when faithfulness failures occur downstream of attention.

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23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Morphology-Aware Sample Assignment: Overcoming IoU Insensitivity for Surface Defect Detection

作者:
Pengfei Liu↗Yuhan Guo↗

Intersection-over-Union (IoU), as a pivotal metric for evaluating the spatial alignment between candidate proposals and ground-truth annotations, directly determines the quality of positive sample sets and the training efficacy of visual detection models. Through theoretical modeling and analysis, we uncover a non-sensitive region on the IoU response curve, within which samples yield nearly identical IoU scores despite distinct geometric overlaps. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a set of morphological similarity metrics covering area, shape, and aspect ratio, to refine the positive sample assignment process, thereby ensuring more discriminative and reliable matching. A supplementary matching score is derived via mean-based aggregation of these multidimensional similarities, compensating for the intrinsic limitation of IoU in representing structural correspondence. Theoretically, incorporating morphological similarity reshapes the response distribution of the matching function, yielding both effective directional gradients and polygon-like iso-response contours, which tightly confine high-response regions around each ground-truth instance and substantially enhance the precision of positive sample selection. Experiments based on the YOLOv9 framework demonstrate consistent performance gains on both NEUDET and GC10- DET datasets. Notably, the proposed approach is fully plug-and-play and incurs zero additional inference overhead, thereby ensuring deployment efficiency for industrial visual inspection.

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24.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Evaluating LLM Usage for Efficient and Explainable Numerical and Classified Implicit Sentiment Analysis of Product Desirability

作者:
Sherri Weitl-Harms↗John Hastings↗

Qualitative product feedback can reveal nuanced user experiences, but its implicit sentiment is difficult to measure. This paper presents a scalable and interpretable framework that uses large language models (LLMs) to quantify product desirability from such data. Using two Product Desirability Toolkit (PDT) datasets from ZORQ and CARMA comprising 106 respondent term groupings with gold-standard human annotation, zero-shot continuous numerical sentiment scoring and categorical sentiment classification are evaluated without relying on explicit review scores. Across the datasets, LLMs generated numerical sentiment scores directly from qualitative responses and closely matched expert labels, achieving Pearson correlations up to 0.97 and classification accuracy up to 94%. LLMs maintained robustness even when handling data presented in multiple forms and consistently expressed high confidence. In contrast, lexicon-based and transformer baselines did not produce statistically significant results. Among the models tested, GPT-4o-mini achieved performance comparable to larger models at 94% lower cost, supporting scalable deployment. The framework also incorporates model confidence ratings and human-readable rationale explanations (xAI), improving interpretability, transparency, and trust while supporting practical use in product satisfaction assessment. In general, using the PDT tool as a survey method along with a cost efficient LLM for sentiment analysis has the potential to provide for product evaluation with results that are rich in terms of sentiment scores (both numerical and classified sentiment) and in terms of the high-level user impressions of the product that can be used to identify ideas for product development and improvement, as well as marketing ideas for target audiences.

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25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Efficiency-Performance Trade-offs in Neural Speaker Diarization via Structured Pruning and Low-Bit Quantization

作者:
Rishit Chatterjee↗Tahiya Chowdhury↗

Streaming speaker diarization is crucial for time-critical medical dispatch, but deploying it on resource-constrained hardware requires smaller, faster models. Using SIMSAMU, a dataset of simulated medical-dispatch conversations, we evaluate streaming behavior before compressing the segmentation model with pruning and low-bit quantization. We characterize performance across a range of streaming latency budgets and find that additional buffering is not consistently beneficial, while very low-latency operating points can substantially degrade performance. Our study shows that model compression trades performance for memory footprint, and we highlight an operating point where FP16 reduces model size by half with essentially unchanged real-time factor, at a cost of a 40\% relative DER increase against the baseline. This work characterizes the trade-offs for real-time deployment and contributes to speech technology that can enable reliable human communication in time-critical contexts.

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