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01.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Correct When Paired, Wrong When Split: Decoupling and Editing Modality-Specific Neurons in MLLMs

Although Knowledge Editing provides an efficient mechanism for updating the knowledge of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), we find that current paradigms still suffer from an important yet remain underexplored issue : editing decoupling failure, where entity-related knowledge can be updated when the model is triggered by multimodal inputs (text–image query pairs), however, it often reverts to outdated pre-edit facts when the paired inputs are split into unimodal ones. Our in-depth empirical analysis reveals that the entity knowledge in MLLMs is not stored as a unified representation, but is instead distributed across disentangled modality-specific pathways. As a result, updates biased toward multimodal queries fail to propagate effectively to unimodal circuits. To bridge this gap, we propose DECODE, which explicitly disentangles and localizes modality-specific neuron groups for targeted knowledge. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DECODE consistently achieves effective knowledge updates under different modality triggers, thereby mitigating editing decoupling failures.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

The Discrete-Log Clock: How a Transformer Learns Modular Multiplication

arXiv:2606.17399v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When small transformers grok modular multiplication, prior work reports that the learned embedding has a "dense" Fourier spectrum requiring all frequencies. This contrasts with modular addition, where only a sparse set of key frequencies suffices. We show this density is an artifact of analyzing in the wrong basis. The natural Fourier transform for multiplication is not the standard additive DFT but the multiplicative character transform, which decomposes functions on the multiplicative group $(\mathbb{Z}/p\mathbb{Z})^*$ into its irreducible representations. Applying this transform to a grokked transformer trained on $a \cdot b \bmod 113$, we find the embedding spectrum becomes highly sparse (Gini coefficient 0.58 vs. 0.07 in the additive basis) with only 4 key frequencies carrying significant energy. Furthermore, 96.9% of MLP neurons are cleanly tuned to a single multiplicative frequency, and neuron activation heatmaps reveal 2D-periodic structure when reordered by the discrete logarithm. These results demonstrate the transformer reduces multiplication to addition in discrete-log space, implementing a "Discrete-Log Clock" algorithm analogous to Nanda et al.'s Clock algorithm for addition. The methodology generalizes: matching the analysis basis to the algebraic structure of the task reveals interpretable structure where standard tools see noise.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Can Agents Read the Room? Benchmarking Visual Social Intelligence in Multimodal Simulation

Social interaction depends on both language and visible social signals, such as facial expressions, posture, gaze, and emotional shifts. Yet existing social-agent benchmarks are largely text-based and rarely test whether multimodal agents can use visual cues to guide interaction. We introduce \textsc{\benchmarkname{}}, a benchmark evaluating visual social intelligence in multimodal social simulation. It contains 240 scenarios, 585 role instances, and 2,340 role-task instances, combining aligned textual-visual evidence, structured role profiles, and four role-level tasks: expression task, characteristic task, interaction regulation task, and interaction outcome task. Evaluating seven recent MLLMs under verbalized-vision and direct-vision reveals a clear gap between local role enactment and interaction management: role-specific expression and conflict handling are near saturation, whereas interaction regulation and visually grounded outcome achievement remain substantially more difficult. The code is released at https://github.com/JunsWan/AgentViSS, and the dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/JunsWan/AgentViSS.

04.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Limit theorems for random Dirichlet series with summation over primes, with an application to Rademacher random multiplicative functions

arXiv:2508.15032v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: It is shown that two conjectures put forward in the recent article Iksanov and Kostohryz (2025) are true. Namely, we prove a functional central limit theorem (FCLT) and a law of the iterated logarithm (LIL) for a random Dirichlet series $\sum_p \frac{\eta_p}{p^{1/2+s}}$ as $s\to 0+$, where $\eta_1$, $\eta_2,\ldots$ are independent identically distributed random variables with zero mean and finite variance, and $\sum_p$ denotes the summation over the prime numbers. As a consequence, an FCLT and an LIL are obtained for $\log \sum_{n\geq 1} \frac{f(n)}{n^{1/2+s}}$ as $s\to 0+$, where $f$ is a Rademacher random multiplicative function.

05.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Marked random graphs with given degree sequence: large deviations on the local topology

arXiv:2401.00351v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We investigate the behavior of the empirical neighborhood distribution of marked graphs in the framework of local weak convergence. Here we extend known results by considering uniform random graphs with given degree sequences and i.i.d. marks on half-edges and vertices. We establish a large deviation principle for such families of empirical measures. The proof builds on Bordenave and Caputo's seminal 2015 paper, and Delgosha and Anantharam's 2019 introduction of BC entropy, relying on combinatorial lemmas that allow one to construct suitable approximations of measures supported on marked trees. Possible applications of these results are in the study of interacting diffusions on top of random graphs.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Compiler-First State Space Duality and Portable $O(1)$ Autoregressive Caching for Inference

arXiv:2603.09555v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: High-throughput Mamba-2 inference is usually tied to fused CUDA and Triton kernels, limiting portability across accelerator backends. We show that the state space duality (SSD) recurrence has a compiler-friendly structure: diagonal per-head dynamics, fixed-size chunking, einsum-dominated compute, and static control flow. Expressing this structure in standard JAX primitives gives a single-source inference path with no custom kernels, a registered JAX PyTree cache, and a compiled on-device autoregressive loop. On a single Google Cloud TPU v6e, batch-1 prefill reaches approximately 140 TFLOPS, or 15% model FLOP utilisation (MFU), the roofline ceiling for this regime, and cached decode reaches up to 64% hardware bandwidth utilisation (HBU). At a 4096-token context, cached decode is 27x–36x faster than full-prefix recomputation across five Mamba-2 checkpoints from 130M to 2.7B parameters. The same source runs unmodified on NVIDIA L40S, where cached decode remains sequence-length independent across all model scales. WikiText-103 validation perplexity matches the Triton reference mamba_ssm v2.2.2 within +/-0.0005 points, and hidden states agree to float32 rounding tolerance. Code is available at https://github.com/CosmoNaught/mamba2-jax.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

A Hybrid LSTM–Vision Transformer Architecture for Predicting HRRR Forecast Errors

arXiv:2606.19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena. Previous work demonstrated that Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks can successfully predict forecast errors in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model using mesonet observations, but we believe performance degradation is linked to periods of complex vertical atmospheric evolution. To address this limitation, we develop a hybrid LSTM-Vision Transformer (LSTM-ViT) framework that combines temporal sequence learning from surface observations with atmospheric profiles from the New York State Mesonet profiler network. The LSTM-ViT framework is trained to predict HRRR hourly precipitation, 10 m wind speed, and 2 m temperature forecast errors at individual mesonet stations. Across all three predictors, incorporation of profiler-derived atmospheric structure improves forecast error prediction skill relative to the baseline LSTM architecture, with the largest gains occurring at shorter forecast lead times and during periods of enhanced PBL activity. Improvements are particularly pronounced for precipitation forecast error, where the LSTM-ViT framework achieves approximately a twofold increase in predictive skill relative to the baseline LSTM while better capturing convectively driven error evolution and reducing degradation associated with PBL processes. These results demonstrate that combining temporal sequence learning with vertically informed attention mechanisms provides a physically meaningful pathway for improving forecast error prediction in operational NWP systems. Our research offers forecasters enhanced guidance regarding model bias and forecast confidence.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Be Your Own Teacher: Steering Protein Language Models via Unsupervised Reward Optimization

arXiv:2606.18961v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Protein language models (PLMs) have emerged as powerful tools for controllable biomolecular design, yet their post-training adaptation typically relies on costly wet-lab validation or curated preference datasets. To overcome this supervision bottleneck, we introduce unsupervised reward optimization of PLMs, a comprehensive framework for steerable protein generation without ground-truth labels. Our key insight is that task-agnostic rewards, which combine intrinsic model uncertainty with extrinsic semantic consistency informed by protein representation models, exhibit strong correlation with controllability measures across base models and temperature regimes. Building upon this discovery, we propose two offline algorithms: Soft Reward Optimization (SRO) and Binarized Reward Optimization (BRO), which effectively maximize the classical RLHF objective induced by these proxy rewards. Extensive experiments on compositional out-of-distribution prompts demonstrate that both methods significantly outperform competitive baselines (DPO, KTO), while approaching oracle performance across multiple sampling temperatures, model scales and protein families. Moreover, PLMs fine-tuned with unsupervised rewards can achieve consistently higher coverage compared to their base model in pass@k evaluations. By enabling self-improvement of PLMs through their own generated experience, our framework provides a scalable pathway toward controllable biomolecular design in settings where labeled preferences or experimental feedback are scarce or unavailable.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Magnetic control of an exciton-polariton condensate in a van der Waals magnet

arXiv:2506.06010v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Quasiparticle condensates are among the most spectacular solid-state manifestations of quantum physics. Coupling macroscopic real-space wavefunctions to additional degrees of freedom, such as the electron spin, would add valuable control knobs for quantum applications. While creating spin-carrying superconducting condensates has attracted enormous attention, man-made condensates of light-matter hybrids known as exciton-polaritons have lacked an analogous spin-based perspective. Here we open a new door by demonstrating magnetically tunable exciton-polariton condensation in the van der Waals magnet CrSBr. Under photoexcitation, CrSBr microwires embedded in an optical cavity show the hallmarks of polariton condensation: a dramatic increase of the emission intensity from an excited laterally confined polariton state by multiple orders of magnitude, spectral narrowing of the emission line, and a continuous shift of the peak energy. Interferometry evidences an increase in spatial and temporal coherence. Owing to the strong coupling between the spin order and excitonic correlation, the energy of the condensate can be tuned by up to 10.5 meV by an external magnetic field of only 2 Tesla. Our results establish CrSBr microcavities as a powerful platform for exploring magnetic control of polariton condensates and mark a significant step toward spin-controlled coherent quantum light sources.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

C2FL: Clustered Continual Federated Learning under Spatial and Temporal Drift

arXiv:2606.18003v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Collective Adaptive Systems (CAS) increasingly rely on machine learning to let each node learn from locally sensed data, aligning its behavior with the surrounding environment. Scaling this intelligence, however, raises fundamental challenges: sensed data is often privacy-sensitive, preventing centralized collection; nodes are mobile, traversing regions where nearby nodes perceive similar phenomena while distant ones observe radically different conditions, creating natural spatial clusters; and these distributions evolve over time due to mobility, introducing temporal drift that makes local models progressively stale. These dynamics arise across domains - vehicular sensing, drone-based monitoring, smartphone crowdsensing - yet the interplay of privacy, spatial heterogeneity, and temporal drift severely undermines conventional learning strategies. Therefore, we propose C2FL, a fully distributed Federated Learning (FL) approach where nodes self-organize into learning groups through spatial clustering, reflecting the geographic structure of the environment. To counteract temporal drift, each node combines experience replay with a dwell-time-aware adaptive averaging step, progressively incorporating the regional consensus as it remains longer within the same area, while preserving previously acquired knowledge under evolving distributions. We evaluate our approach on synthetic experiments that systematically reproduce spatial and temporal shifts, showing that standard federated strategies degrade significantly under these conditions and that our method restores robust collective adaptation.

11.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Expressivity of Quantum Reservoir Computers

arXiv:2501.15528v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Using Hamiltonian encoding to inject an input into parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs), the output of the PQC can be written as truncated Fourier series. In recent years, the expressivity of PQCs was established as the number of frequencies contained in this Fourier series. While this concept has also been applied to other quantum machine learning (QML) paradigms, a clear notion of expressivity for temporal information processing with quantum systems is still lacking. Here, we introduce such a notion to the field of quantum reservoir computing (QRC). We analytically derive an expression for the readouts showing that the output of a QRC can be interpreted as a multi-dimensional Fourier series. We give a formula for the growth of expressivity induced by the sequential information injection, which we corroborate with numerical simulations, calculating explicitly the number of multi-dimensional output functions which can be generated from the readouts. Our results show that the specific interplay between system size, input encoding, and memory time gives rise to a boundary on the system size beyond which it is obstructive to further increase the reservoir size in extreme scrambling systems. We propose a recipe for determining this maximal system size for a given QRC setup.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Swarm-Inspired Generation of Collective Behaviors in Graph Dynamical Systems

arXiv:2606.24958v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Collective behavior arises when locally interacting units produce coordinated global organization, from synchronization in dynamical systems to task-relevant information flow on graphs. The central challenge is not only to explain how collective behavior emerges, but to design local interaction rules that can produce desired global organization and generalize across graphs, dynamics and tasks.To address this challenge, we introduce the Swarm-Inspired Emergent Synchronizer (SIES), a graph-dynamical framework that learns generalizable local-interaction laws for controllable collective organization. Each node is an agent-like dynamical unit with a state and task cue, and signed source-target-conditioned attention acts as an adaptive coupling term inside an explicit evolution model. Therefore, SIES combines an explicit dynamical engine with local agent intelligence, similar to biological swarms. For synchronization control, SIES learns a generalizable coupling operator that produces prescribed synchronization patterns for CDSs across untrained network scales, target phase relations, and intrinsic node dynamics without retraining. The learned operator also reaches gait-related modes faster than three oscillator baselines and generalizes synchronization-driven locomotion to simulated multi-legged robots of different scales and a physical hexapod after leg disablement. For graph representation learning, SIES applies the same signed interaction principle to message passing and achieves the highest performance among the compared methods on heterophilous node-classification benchmarks. Together, these results position SIES as a generalizable and learnable graph-dynamical interaction framework with promise for synchronization control, adaptive robot coordination, and heterophilous graph representation learning.

13.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

Lehner's operator norm formulas, semidefinite programming, and spiked matrix models

arXiv:2606.14687v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Lehner (1999) derived elegant formulas for the operator norm $\|\mathfrak{X}\|$ of operators of the form $\mathfrak{X} = \mathbf{A}_0 \otimes \mathfrak{1} + \sum_{i = 1}^n \mathbf{A}_i \otimes \mathfrak{m}_i$, also easily generalized to the spectral edge $\lambda_{\max}(\mathfrak{X})$, in terms of nonlinear optimization problems over positive definite matrices. Here the $\mathbf{A}_i$ are finite-dimensional Hermitian matrices, the $\mathfrak{m}_i$ are either free semicircular or free Rademacher families of operators, and $\mathfrak{1}$ is the identity operator. We first show that both of Lehner's nonlinear optimizations can be rewritten as linear semidefinite programs (SDPs), even in the Rademacher case where Lehner's optimization is not itself convex. We give the primal and dual forms of these SDPs, derive the complementary slackness relations and consequences thereof, and propose that the SDPs are more stable and accurate than the iterative numerical scheme proposed in Lehner's original work. We then apply the SDPs from the semicircular case to spiked matrix models, studied recently via Lehner's formula by Bandeira, Cipolloni, Schröder, and van Handel (2024). We give a new proof of the Baik–Ben Arous–Péché (BBP) transition they establish in models with isotropic (but possibly correlated) Gaussian noise by constructing feasible variables for the associated primal and dual SDPs. Combining our construction with a sensitivity interpretation of optimal dual variables, we study the fluctuations of leading eigenvectors of such models. We conjecture and give numerical evidence that these fluctuations are Gaussian but anisotropic and non-universal, and that their covariance may be computed in terms of the optimizer of the dual of Lehner's formula, which in turn is approximately the leading eigenmatrix of a completely positive operator associated to the covariance of the noise model.

14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

A physical adaptive material motor unit neural network: a hygromorph composite material machine

arXiv:2606.18275v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Advances in novel materials science enable structures to function as intelligent machines by embedding memory and learning capabilities directly into materials. Our work introduces a physical adaptive material motor unit neural network,leveraging a new generation of controllable actuators composed of wood- and carbon black-based composites, sensitive to temperature and relative humidity. These material actuators are assembled into a motor unit-like structure inspired by muscle contraction trigger, forming an intelligent machine capable of dynamic shading control that can be used, for example, in buildings. The machine is governed by a neural network trained on over 350 experimental data points collected under diverse environmental conditions. By establishing a new data-aware backpropagation training, we show that the machine predicts shading responses and learns to predict appropriate behaviour incrementally as the database expands. We also demonstrate the ability of the machine to optimise configurations to achieve similar shading outputs under two distinct conditions.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Reliable Conformal Prediction for Ordinal Classification Using the Ranked Probability Score

arXiv:2606.24959v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Ordinal classification (OC) arises in high-stakes domains such as medicine and finance, where uncertainty quantification must account for the severity of ordinal errors. Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction sets with marginal coverage guarantees; however, its practical effectiveness depends critically on the choice of nonconformity function. We introduce a CP method for ordinal classification based on the ranked probability score (RPS), a proper scoring rule defined over cumulative predictive distributions. Although it reflects ordinal risk quite naturally, it has largely been neglected in conformal ordinal prediction (COP). When used as a measure of nonconformity, RPS yields median-centered contiguous prediction sets by construction. The method is model-agnostic, supports both assessed and grouped ordered categorical outcomes, and permits efficient implementation compared to greedy interval selection procedures. Across multiple ordinal image and tabular datasets, RPS-based CP produces contiguous prediction sets and strikes a favorable balance between prediction set width and the magnitude of ordinal miscoverage relative to existing CP methods.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Uncertainty-Aware Longitudinal Forecasting of Alzheimer's Disease Progression Using Deep Learning

arXiv:2606.24604v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Longitudinal modelling of Alzheimer's disease progression is clinically useful only if it can describe not just the most likely next diagnosis, but how a patient may evolve over time and how reliable that forecast is. Most deep learning approaches reduce this problem to single-step classification, treating cognitively normal, mild cognitive impairment, and dementia as flat categories while providing limited insight into how uncertainty accumulates across future visits. We propose a probabilistic framework that combines ordinal diagnosis prediction, multi-horizon trajectory generation, and decomposed uncertainty estimation. A Temporal Fusion Transformer encoder is adapted with a CORAL ordinal output layer, asymmetric loss weighting, and converter oversampling to respect disease-stage ordering and improve sensitivity to MCI-to-dementia transitions. Conditioned on the learned patient-context representation, an autoregressive Mixture Density Network generates five-year probabilistic trajectories for diagnosis state, CDR Sum of Boxes, MMSE orientation, and hippocampal volume. On ADNI, the model outperforms linear, recurrent, and transformer baselines for next-visit diagnosis prediction, with the strongest gains on MCI-versus-dementia discrimination. Generated trajectories achieve near-nominal 90% credible interval coverage, widening uncertainty across the forecast horizon, and biomarker dynamics consistent with expected Alzheimer's disease progression. We further separate aleatoric from epistemic uncertainty using analytic mixture variance and a five-member bootstrap ensemble, which provides the strongest encoder diversity and output-level epistemic signal. Epistemic uncertainty is higher for rare progression archetypes, MCI and dementia patients, and under external evaluation on OASIS-3, where it increases alongside prediction error.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

SCR-Guided Difficulty-Aware Optimization for Infrared Small Target Detection

Infrared small target detection remains challenging due to severe background clutter, low contrast, and weak spatial responses where geometric overlap alone is insufficient to characterize detection quality. In this work, we propose REEM (Reweighted Explicit-visibility Enhanced Modulation), a lightweight SCR-guided difficulty-aware optimization framework that incorporates Signal-to-Clutter Ratio (SCR) as a physically meaningful visibility prior during training. Instead of modifying the network architecture or directly optimizing SCR, REEM computes a ground-truth local SCR from the input image and applies a differentiable modulation to the soft-IoU learning signal, emphasizing low-visibility targets while preserving stable optimization and identical inference behavior. REEM is integrated into a U-Net-based MSHNet without introducing additional parameters, architectural modifications, or inference-time overhead. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent improvements over the baseline, achieving higher IoU and detection probability (Pd) together with substantially reduced false alarms (FA), particularly under challenging low-visibility conditions. These results suggest that SCR-guided difficulty-aware optimization provides an effective and physically grounded complement to conventional overlap-based objectives for infrared small target detection. The code is available at https://github. com/yall-in-one/Reemm.

19.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

A Universal All-Fiber Quantum Buffer for the Telecom Band

arXiv:2606.24681v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The realization of a scalable quantum internet relies on the ability to temporally align asynchronous photonic signals through on-demand buffering. While matter-based quantum memories achieve long storage times, their extremely narrow bandwidths and cryogenic requirements pose significant barriers to integration with existing telecommunications infrastructure. Conversely, current all-optical memories operate at room temperature but are hampered by high input/output losses and a lack of universality across different photonic degrees of freedom. Here, we demonstrate a universal, fully fiber-integrated quantum buffer operating over the full telecom C-band that overcomes these fundamental trade-offs. By implementing an actively switched dual-Sagnac cavity driven by cross-phase modulation, we achieve an ultra-low input/output loss of 0.46 dB and a storage time exceeding 18 $\mu$s. The device exhibits an operational bandwidth exceeding 12.5 THz ($\sim$100 nm), covering the full telecom C-band. We show the simultaneous buffering of over 200 temporal modes with the ability to address them either collectively or one by one. We demonstrate high-fidelity storage for all three degrees of freedom compatible with optical fiber propagation, namely time-bin, frequency-bin, and polarization qubits, along with faithful preservation of entanglement, confirming the platform's true universality. These results provide a robust, room-temperature solution for the high-rate synchronization of multidimensional quantum states, clearing a major hurdle for the deployment of global photonic quantum networks.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

ModTGCN: Modularity-aware Graph Neural Networks for Text Classification

Graph-based text classification models typically rely on local neighborhood aggregation and overlook global community structure, despite semantic document graphs exhibiting strong class-consistent clustering. Ignoring this can blur class boundaries and lead to over-smoothing. We propose ModTGCN, a modularity-aware graph neural network for text classification that jointly optimizes cross-entropy and a modularity-based auxiliary objective to promote class-coherent document communities while preserving discriminative representations. The modularity term is computed on a document-document similarity graph derived from transformer embeddings (pretrained or fine-tuned). To improve scalability, we decouple the original heterogeneous TextGCN graph into separate document-word and word-word components, achieving 2x-10x faster training. We further study graph construction strategies, label-aware edge reweighting, and supervision choices for modularity optimization. Experiments on five benchmarks show consistent gains, with larger improvements on complex, low homophily datasets such as Ohsumed and 20NG.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Filtered ANN as a Phase Transition: When Selectivity-Estimation Error Causes Plan Regret

arXiv:2606.16341v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A filtered approximate-nearest-neighbor (ANN) query returns the k nearest vectors among those satisfying an attribute predicate P of selectivity s. The best execution strategy – pre-filter, post-filter, or in-filter – changes with s, so a system must estimate s and choose. We model this as an argmax over a landscape with phases (regions where each strategy wins) separated by boundaries, and show that selectivity-estimation error produces plan regret – recall lost versus the oracle strategy – only in the critical regions around those boundaries. The regret is a wedge of log-width equal to the multiplicative estimation error epsilon and height equal to the local cliff |V'(s*)| epsilon; the flip-margin 1/|V'(s*)| is the condition number of a sibling cardinality-estimation study reappearing as the local boundary theory. The two phase boundaries follow from independent mathematics: order statistics place the post-filter cliff at s ~ k/K, and site percolation places the in-filter cliff at s_c ~ 0.83/M for graph degree M (corpus-size independent). Criticality exists only under a constrained budget B < sqrt(k n). Under pre-registered decision rules we confirm, on synthetic sweeps and real SIFT1M, that regret concentrates ~290x at the boundary and that the regret curves obey a finite-size scaling collapse onto one universal wedge across two decades of corpus size. A real approximate index does not mis-locate the boundary, but a biased cost model opens a persistent miscalibration band that estimation-error robustness cannot fix. The contribution is a characterization, not a new index. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Development and External Validation of a Machine Learning Model for 10-Year Ischemic Stroke Risk Prediction in Diverse Populations

Importance: Machine-learning models for ischemic stroke risk prediction are rarely validated across ancestrally distinct cohorts, and the contributions of polygenic risk scores (PRS) and self-reported race in such models remain unclear. Objective: To develop and externally validate a 10-year ischemic stroke risk model and quantify the incremental contributions of laboratory trajectories, PRS, and self-reported race and ethnicity across populations. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study with model development in the All of Us (AoU) Research Program (n = 34,987; 1,920 incident strokes) and external validation in the BioMe Biobank at Mount Sinai (n = 10,693; 107 incident strokes). Adults aged 45 years or older with at least 1 year of pre-baseline electronic health record data were anchored to a January 2010 baseline with 10-year follow-up. Exposures: Three XGBoost model tiers added laboratory feature trajectories (M2) and 20 PRS (M3) to clinical baseline features (M1); evaluated under race-blind and race-aware specifications. Main Outcomes and Measures: First inpatient ischemic stroke within 10 years; discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]) and calibration (observed-to-expected [O/E] ratio). Results: In the AoU test partition (n = 6,998; 384 cases), M3 achieved an AUROC of 0.813 (95% CI, 0.788-0.837), outperforming the Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (AUROC difference, 0.164) and Pooled Cohort Equations (AUROC difference, 0.181; both P < 0.001). Discrimination transferred to BioMe (AUROC, 0.745), but predictions were systematically high (aggregate O/E ratio, 0.12 vs 1.00 in AoU), consistent with intercept-shift miscalibration; BioMe-fitted intercept recalibration restored calibration in African American and Hispanic participants but not European American participants. The PRS contribution was significant only among Hispanic participants in BioMe (AUROC difference, 0.042; P = 0.003), with no significant within-stratum gain in the other 5 cohort-by-race combinations. Adding self-reported race produced small gains when combined with PRS (BioMe AUROC difference, 0.022; P = 0.034; AoU AUROC difference, 0.006; P = 0.052) but not when added without PRS. Conclusions and Relevance: A machine-learning ensemble combining clinical, laboratory, and polygenic features outperformed traditional risk scores by 0.16 to 0.18 AUROC and retained discriminative validity in an ancestrally distinct external cohort but required site-specific recalibration of absolute risk. The marginal contribution of self-reported race overlapped with polygenic signal, supporting per-ancestry calibration over universal race-aware model deployment.

23.
PLOS Medicine 2026-06-23

Prevalence and epidemiological patterns of <i>Neisseria gonorrhoeae</i> infection in sub-Saharan Africa, 1964–2025: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

作者:

by Aisha Osman, Hina Akram, Bayan Alemrayat, Sumaya Al-Maraghi, Manale Harfouche, Laith J. Abu-Raddad Background Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) infection is a global health concern because of its morbidity and increasing antimicrobial resistance. Sub-Saharan Africa is believed to carry a disproportionately high burden of NG infection, but the epidemiology of NG infection in this region has not been comprehensively synthesized. This study systematically reviewed and analyzed NG prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa to characterize prevalence patterns and identify populations at risk. Methods and findings A systematic review was conducted and reported following PRISMA guidelines. Embase, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched from inception to June 4, 2025. Eligible studies reported NG prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. Random-effects meta-analyses generated pooled prevalence estimates, and random-effects meta-regression analyses identified associations and sources of heterogeneity.Nine hundred fifty publications contributed 1,604 prevalence measures spanning 1964–2025. In the general population, pooled urogenital prevalence was 3.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9–3.5), with substantial between-study heterogeneity and a wide prediction interval, indicating considerable variation in prevalence across settings. Prevalence was high in key populations: among female sex workers, 11.5% (95% CI: 9.9–13.2) for urogenital and 2.0% (95% CI: 0.4–4.5) for anorectal infection; and among men who have sex with men, 2.8% (95% CI: 2.4–3.3) for urogenital, 8.3% (95% CI: 5.8–11.0) for anorectal, and 5.7% (95% CI: 3.6–8.3) for oropharyngeal infection. Symptomatic men exhibited high urogenital prevalence (51.5%; 95% CI: 47.5–55.5), and symptomatic women showed 9.0% (95% CI: 7.7–10.4). Among women with adverse pregnancy or birth outcomes, urogenital prevalence was 8.6% (95% CI: 5.3–12.6). Meta-regression analyses explained over half of the variability in prevalence, showing a long-term decline of 1% per year, a clear population type gradient, subregional differences, and decreasing prevalence with increasing age, but no variation by sex. These findings may be affected by variability in data availability across countries, anatomical sites, and population groups, as well as heterogeneity across included studies. Conclusions NG prevalence remains markedly high in this region but has declined over time. These findings highlight the need for strengthened surveillance, expanded prevention and diagnostic strategies, and continued monitoring of gonococcal antimicrobial resistance to support effective control efforts in sub-Saharan Africa.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Questioning the Coverage-Length Metric in Conformal Prediction: When Shorter Intervals Are Not Better

arXiv:2601.21455v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction(CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We demonstrate that the interval length might be deceptively improved through a counter-intuitive approach termed Prejudicial Trick(PT), while the coverage remains valid. Specifically, for any given test sample, PT probabilistically returns an interval, which is either null or constructed using an adjusted confidence level, thereby preserving marginal coverage. While PT potentially yields a deceptively lower interval length, it introduces practical vulnerabilities: the same input can yield completely different prediction intervals across repeated runs of the algorithm. We formally derive the conditions under which PT achieves these misleading improvements and provide extensive empirical evidence across various regression and classification tasks. Furthermore, we introduce a new metric interval stability which helps detect whether a new CP method implicitly improves the length based on such PT-like techniques. Code is available at https://github.com/benben-cd/PT-Conformal-Prediction.

25.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

IgG2 Galactosylation is related to higher antibody dependent enhancement for dengue in cross-reactive antibodies from Sars-CoV-2

Cross-reactive antibodies against dengue virus are known to cause antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of infection or disease severity under specific conditions. In our previous study, we showed that primary immunization with the COVID-19 vaccine induces induces cross-reactive IgG causing ADE against dengue. In the present study, we investigated the influence of IgG Fc-glycosylation (analyzed by LC-MS/MS) on ADE mediated by cross-reactive IgG against dengue from IgG against SARS-CoV-2. We found a clear correlation between anti-DENV2 E IgG2 galactosylation and the ADE capacity of cross-reactive IgG against dengue in individuals vaccinated against COVID-19. IgG2 sialylation increased over time; however, it was not correlated with ADE capacity. This phenomenon was restricted to IgG2, whereas anti-DENV2 E IgG1 Fc-glycosylation remained stable after COVID-19 vaccination.