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01.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

The Target ALS Global Natural History Study: Cross-platform proteomics to accelerate biofluid biomarker and drug target discovery in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal, rapidly progressive neurodegenerative disease of motor neurons for which therapeutics are limited. Improved biomarkers are imperative to improve patient care and therapeutic development. Here, we employed 35-plex isobaric tandem mass tag labeling based on isobutyl-proline reporter group (TMTpro) to perform unbiased proteomic analysis of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma from control (n= 28, n= 31) and sporadic ALS (sALS) (n= 39, n= 41), from the Target ALS Global Natural History Study (TALS GNHS). We identified 2,875 proteins in CSF and 1,118 proteins in plasma and identified known and novel differentially expressed proteins (DEPs) between controls and sALS, some of which were orthogonally validated using immunoassay. Comparison of TMTpro-MS and Olink proximity extension assay proteomics revealed common and non-overlapping differentially expressed proteins illustrating strengths unique to each platform. This initial cross-sectional proteomic study of biofluids from the TALS GNHS, with unrestricted availability of study results to the research community, highlights the potential of this resource as a potent platform for ALS biomarker discovery.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

PaLMR: Towards Faithful Visual Reasoning via Multimodal Process Alignment

Reinforcement learning has recently improved the reasoning ability of Large Language Models and Multimodal LLMs, yet prevailing reward designs emphasise final-answer correctness and consequently tolerate process hallucinations–cases where models reach the right answer while misperceiving visual evidence. We address this process-level misalignment with PaLMR, a framework that aligns not only outcomes but also the reasoning process itself. PaLMR comprises two complementary components: a perception-aligned data layer that constructs process-aware reasoning data with structured pseudo-ground-truths and verifiable visual facts, and a process-aligned optimisation layer that constructs a hierarchical reward fusion scheme with a process-aware scoring function to encourage visually faithful chains-of-thought and improve training stability. Experiments on Qwen2.5-VL-7B show that our approach substantially reduces reasoning hallucinations and improves visual reasoning fidelity, achieving state-of-the-art results on HallusionBench while maintaining strong performance on MMMU, MathVista, and MathVerse. These findings indicate that PaLMR offers a principled and practical route to process-aligned multimodal reasoning, advancing the reliability and interpretability of MLLMs.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

VLADriveBench: Evaluating CoT-Action Relationship in VLA for Autonomous Driving

Vision-language-action (VLA) models generate chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning alongside driving trajectories, but existing benchmarks evaluate only trajectory quality and do not assess whether the CoT is relevant, consistent, or causally connected to the driving action. We introduce VLADriveBench, a framework that combines observational metrics (mentioning, hallucination, contradiction, action alignment) with a CoT intervention protocol to provide complementary views of the CoT-action relationship. Applying VLADriveBench to three models across two architectures, we find that the two analyses can diverge sharply: ORION scores highest on observational alignment yet its CoT is epiphenomenal, while Alpamayo v1.5 scores lower yet its CoT is strongly causal, with visual salience gating the extent of CoT influence.

04.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-16

PhenoBIC: operator-free single-cell spatial phenotyping in multiplex imaging data using deep learning of cell staining patterns

Multiplex imaging is a valuable tool for spatially examining tissue microenvironments at the single-cell level to uncover biological and clinical insights. However, most multiplex image analysis workflows currently require manual intervention for cell phenotyping, which slows progress, demands human effort, and yields operator-dependent outputs. Here, we developed PhenoBIC, a pre-trained deep learning model for image classification of the multiplexed biomarker signals in a cell (Biomarker Imprint of a Cell) to classify cell phenotypes. We show that PhenoBIC (F1-score ~0.88) outperforms manual gating (widely used) and other machine learning-based computational approaches for cell marker expression classification. We validated this across multiple biomarkers, tissue sampling strategies (whole biopsies and tissue microarrays), multiplex panels, imaging platforms, and tissue types. We have released our in-house training and validation datasets of ~1.4 million manually curated cell expression ground truth labels. We have also open-sourced PhenoBIC and enabled its community-wide deployment via the QuPath interface.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Phys-JEPA: Physics-Informed Latent World Models for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606.16076v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multivariate forecasting in physical systems requires models that predict coupled temporal variables while preserving meaningful state evolution. Deep forecasters can fit temporal correlations, and physics-informed models can regularize predictions with scientific constraints, but these directions are often connected only at the decoded-output level. As a result, the hidden predictive state that generates future trajectories may remain statistically useful but physically unstructured. We introduce Phys-JEPA, a physics-informed joint-embedding predictive architecture for multivariate time-series forecasting. Phys-JEPA learns a latent world model in which predictive states are decomposed into physical and residual components, and physical consistency is imposed directly on latent states and latent transitions rather than only on decoded forecasts. This formulation uses known physical variables to organize the representation space while retaining residual capacity for unresolved dynamics. On Jena Climate 2009–2016, Phys-JEPA reduces aggregate MSE from 0.12482 to 0.12273 and temperature MSE from 0.01892 to 0.01831 at H=24. On Traffic, full Phys-JEPA improves aggregate MSE over the supervised baseline across all tested horizons, reducing H=192 MSE from 0.800784 to 0.773873. On Electricity, the best variant depends on horizon: static latent consistency is strongest at H=24 and H=48, while full Phys-JEPA gives the best aggregate and target-variable MSE at H=192. These initial results suggest that moving physics-informed learning from output space to latent predictive state space is a promising direction for interpretable temporal world models.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Neuromorphic Wireless Split Computing with Resonate-and-Fire Neurons

arXiv:2506.20015v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Neuromorphic computing offers an energy-efficient alternative to conventional deep learning accelerators, particularly for real-time processing of time-series data. However, many edge applications, such as wireless sensing and audio recognition, generate streaming signals with rich spectral features that are not effectively captured by conventional leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) spiking neurons. This paper investigates a wireless split computing architecture that employs resonate-and-fire (RF) neurons with oscillatory dynamics to process time-domain signals directly, eliminating the need for costly spectral pre-processing. By resonating at tunable frequencies, RF neurons extract time-localized spectral features while maintaining low spiking activity. This temporal sparsity translates into significant savings in both computation and transmission energy. Assuming an OFDM-based analog wireless interface for spike transmission, we present a complete system design and evaluate its performance on audio classification and modulation classification tasks. Experimental results show that the proposed RF-SNN architecture achieves comparable accuracy to conventional LIF-SNNs and ANNs, while substantially reducing spike rates and total energy consumption during inference and communication.

07.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Continuous stochastic flows driven by white noise and their duals

作者:

arXiv:2606.12143v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study a class of continuous stochastic flows driven by a space-time white noise and characterize their dual flows by explicit stochastic differential equations. A key ingredient of the proof is the convergence of solutions under coefficient approximations. As an application, we derive the dual flows in two illustrative examples, the squared Bessel flow and the Jacobi flow. We also introduce a new model of polynomially self-repelling (PSR) flow and show that it enjoys a self-duality property.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

AdversaBench: Automated LLM Red-Teaming with Multi-Judge Confirmation and Cross-Model Transferability

Scaling adversarial evaluation of large language models requires both a method for generating hard inputs and a reliable way to confirm that resulting failures are real. We present AdversaBench, an end-to-end red-teaming pipeline that mutates seed prompts with five structured operators, queries a target model, and confirms failures through a three-judge panel with a meta-judge tiebreaker. We report experiments on 45 seeds across three categories: reasoning, instruction-following, and tool use. Every seed produced a confirmed failure. Four findings stand out. First, operator effectiveness varies sharply by category: inject_distractor scores 0.00 mean reward on instruction-following seeds but 0.80-0.83 on reasoning and tool-use. Second, binary failure rate hides difficulty: instruction-following seeds required 2.4 attacker iterations on average versus 1.1 for other categories, a gap visible in survival curves. Third, pairwise judge agreement of 80-87% coexists with near-zero Cohen's kappa due to label skew; category-level disagreement rates are more informative. Fourth, adversarial prompts generated against Llama 3.1 8B transfer zero-shot to Llama 3.3 70B, suggesting the mutations exploit general behavioral patterns rather than model-specific weaknesses. Code, dataset, and analysis scripts are available at https://github.com/khanak0509/AdversaBench .

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

A Geometry-Aware Efficient Algorithm for Compositional Entropic Risk Minimization

arXiv:2602.02877v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper studies optimization for a family of problems termed $compositional entropic risk minimization$, in which each data's loss is formulated as a Log-Expectation-Exponential (Log-E-Exp) function. The Log-E-Exp formulation serves as an abstraction of the Log-Sum-Exponential (LogSumExp) function when the explicit summation inside the logarithm is taken over a gigantic number of items and is therefore expensive to evaluate. While entropic risk objectives of this form arise in many machine learning problems, existing optimization algorithms suffer from several fundamental limitations including non-convergence, numerical instability, and slow convergence rates. To address these limitations, we propose a geometry-aware stochastic algorithm, termed $SCENT$, for the dual formulation of entropic risk minimization cast as a min–min optimization problem. The key to our design is a $stochastic proximal mirror descent (SPMD)$ update for the dual variable, equipped with a Bregman divergence induced by a negative exponential function that faithfully captures the geometry of the objective. Our main contributions are threefold: (i) we establish an $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ convergence rate of the proposed SCENT algorithm for convex problems; (ii) we theoretically characterize the advantages of SPMD over standard SGD update for optimizing the dual variable; and (iii) we demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of SCENT on extreme classification, partial AUC maximization, contrastive learning and distributionally robust optimization, where it consistently outperforms existing baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/Optimization-AI/SCENT.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

Test-Time Training for Robust Text-Guided Open-Vocabulary Object Counting

Text-guided Open-vocabulary Object Counting (TOOC) enables counting arbitrary object categories specified by text prompts, offering substantially greater flexibility than conventional closed-set counting. However, existing TOOC methods are developed and evaluated primarily on ideal images, while real-world scenes often suffer from adverse conditions such as rain, fog, darkness, and sensor noise, which severely degrade visual quality and impair vision-language alignment. To bridge this gap, we introduce Robust-TOOC, the first benchmark for evaluating TOOC under diverse corruption conditions, which covers six representative degradation types: rain, fog, darkness, Gaussian noise, salt-and-pepper noise, and mixed corruption. To improve robustness while preserving the original counting architecture, we propose Dual-TTT, a dual-architecture test-time training framework for TOOC. Specifically, during test-time training, Dual-TTT updates only the Text-guided Lightweight Denoising module (TL-Denoiser), while keeping the original counting network frozen. Inspired by diffusion models, the TL-Denoiser is optimized to remove corruption-aware noise from image representations under degraded conditions. Since only the TL-Denoiser is trained at test time, Dual-TTT is annotation-free and can be seamlessly integrated into existing TOOC models without modifying their original architecture. Extensive experiments on multiple recent TOOC baselines demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Unlocking air traffic flow prediction through microscopic aircraft-state modeling

arXiv:2605.10083v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Short-term air traffic flow prediction in terminal airspace is essential for proactive air traffic management. Existing approaches predominantly model traffic flow as aggregated time series. However, traffic dynamics are governed by aircraft states and their interactions in continuous airspace. Such aggregation obscures fine-grained information, including aircraft kinematics, boundary interactions, and control intent. Here we present AeroSense, a state-to-flow modeling paradigm that predicts future traffic flow directly from instantaneous airspace situations represented as dynamic sets of aircraft states derived from ADS-B trajectories. By establishing an end-to-end mapping from microscopic aircraft states to future regional traffic flow, AeroSense preserves aircraft-level dynamics while naturally accommodating varying traffic density without relying on historical look-back windows. Experiments on a large-scale real-world dataset show that AeroSense exhibits admirable predictive accuracy and robustness over aggregation-based forecasting approaches, particularly during high-density traffic periods. These findings suggest that aircraft-state situation modeling provides a promising alternative to conventional time-series forecasting in air traffic flow management.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

CAGE: Curvature-Aware Gradient Estimation For Accurate Quantization-Aware Training

arXiv:2510.18784v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Despite significant work on low-bit quantization-aware training (QAT), there is still an accuracy gap between such techniques and native training. To address this, we introduce CAGE (Curvature-Aware Gradient Estimation), a new QAT method that augments the straight-through estimator (STE) gradient with a curvature-aware correction designed to counteract the loss increase induced by quantization. CAGE is derived from a multi-objective view of QAT that balances loss minimization with the quantization constraints, yielding a principled correction term that depends on local curvature information. On the theoretical side, we introduce the notion of Pareto-optimal solutions for quantized optimization, and establish that CAGE yields strong convergence guarantees in the smooth non-convex setting. In terms of implementation, our approach is optimizer-agnostic, but we provide a highly-efficient implementation that leverages Adam statistics. CAGE significantly improves upon the prior state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy, for similar computational cost: for QAT fine-tuning, it halves the compression accuracy loss relative to the prior best method, while for QAT pre-training of Llama models, its accuracy for 3-bit weights-and-activations (W3A3) matches the accuracy achieved at 4-bits (W4A4) with the prior best method. The official implementation can be found over https://github.com/IST-DASLab/CAGE .

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

"**Important** You should give me full credits!": Exploring Prompt Injection Attacks on LLM-Based Automatic Grading Systems

arXiv:2606.03090v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The emergence of large language models (LLMs) has significantly accelerated recent research on LLM-based automatic grading (AG) systems. Benefiting from the strong instruction-following capabilities and broad prior knowledge of LLMs, educators can deploy AG systems across diverse tasks using only natural language rubrics while achieving satisfactory grading performance. Despite these advantages, new security concerns may also arise. In particular, prompt injection (PI) attacks have recently become a major threat to LLM-based applications. In the context of AG, attackers can potentially exploit PI vulnerabilities to manipulate grading systems into assigning artificially high scores regardless of the actual answer quality. Such behavior poses serious risks to the fairness, reliability, and integrity of educational assessment. In this work, we study PI attacks in AG systems, and systematically investigate the effectiveness of such attacks in educational scenarios. We further evaluate the effectiveness of existing defensive strategies against these attacks. Through comprehensive experiments under rubric-based grading settings, we demonstrate that current LLM-based AG systems remain highly vulnerable to PI attacks. We hope that our findings raise awareness of this emerging threat and motivate future research toward secure, robust, and trustworthy LLM-based educational systems.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Venice-H1: Failure-Aware Query Re-Ranking with Multi-Scale Grid Signatures for Referring Image Segmentation

Modern Referring Image Segmentation (RIS) systems generate multiple candidate masks per expression but rely on a simple heuristic–typically the argmax detection score–to select the final output. We identify query selection as a failure-case bottleneck: although heuristic selection succeeds on 82-93% of samples, the residual 7-18% of failures dominate the error budget, leaving a best-query selection gap of 3-11% mIoU. We introduce Venice-H1, a lightweight, backbone-decoupled post-hoc re-ranking module that encodes each candidate through multi-scale grid signatures–compact spatial descriptors pooled onto 4x4, 8x8, and 16x16 grids–and feeds them to a Transformer-based re-ranker with a Failure Gate (ROCAUC 0.78-0.82) that intervenes only when the default choice is likely suboptimal. Instantiated on DeRIS-L and DeRIS-B, Venice-H1 achieves delta_fail of +1.40 and +0.89 mIoU with strictly positive 95% CIs on all 16/16 (split, backbone) pairs and harmful-switch rates below 0.53%. Zero-shot transfer to medical referring segmentation (MS-CXR, M3D-RefSeg-2D) yields +1.16 and +0.51 mIoU without RIS-backbone fine-tuning. The module adds approximately 11.3M parameters and under 1 ms latency.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

HeteRo-Select: Informativeness as the Participation Driver in Heterogeneous Federated Learning

arXiv:2508.06692v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Federated learning systems typically allocate gradient compression by link speed. This is sensible when bandwidth and data informativeness align. However, under non-IID data, these signals often decorrelate or invert. A bandwidth-driven allocator then risks compressing the most informative gradients hardest. We propose HeteRo-Select, a framework that replaces bandwidth with a per-client informativeness score as the primary driver of compression. The score jointly governs three decisions per round: client selection, compression ratio, and server aggregation weight, with bandwidth retained only as a hard ceiling. Score-proportional selection provably reduces the effective heterogeneity of the chosen subset; score-proportional compression provably lowers aggregate top-$k$ error at fixed traffic. Under the exact FedCG simulation protocol, HeteRo-Select delivers a $1.78\times$ speedup and an $18.2\%$ reduction in traffic on CIFAR-10. The same configuration, unchanged, scales from a $7{,}850$-parameter logistic regression to an $11.27$M-parameter ResNet-18, hitting the accuracy target on three of four benchmarks. When bandwidth and informativeness are deliberately anti-correlated, the method still achieves the target accuracy with less traffic than the normal-bandwidth run.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Is GraphRAG Needed? From Basic RAG to Graph-/Agentic Solutions with Context Optimization

As advanced RAG variants like GraphRAG and Agentic RAG emerge, one leading question is when and how to use them. Here, we introduce a framework for different RAG scenarios evaluation and comparison on semi-structured knowledge bases, including regular RAG, GraphRAG, Modular RAG and Agentic RAG. We provide implementation for 9 standardized RAG scenarios, and conduct experiments for a comprehensive comparison. These scenarios are designed for real use cases regarding data and domain restrictions, spanning from simple document-based retrieval to advanced features such as hybrid text-graph retrieval, integration with computed or pre-defined domain knowledge graphs, agentic multi-step planning, and agent-graph integration. Besides, we present a novel context engineering method for GraphRAG and Agentic RAG, addressing the context/memory overflow issues, efficiently managing text and graph retrievals with new representations and agentic loop design, leading to 19%-53% reduction on token usage. Moreover, further analysis identifies a retrieval-generation gap where expanded retrieval does not proportionally improve generation quality, suggesting retrieval-oriented metrics overstate advanced retrieval benefits. This work provides data-driven insights on when and how to use them for building production-ready intelligent RAG systems.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Amortized mean-shift interacting particles

arXiv:2606.15871v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian inference for inverse problems is run to evaluate integrals – posterior expectations, tail probabilities, and risks – across a stream of observations. The standard estimate averages the integrand over posterior samples, a Monte-Carlo average whose error decays only as the square root of the sample size, so accuracy demands many samples – prohibitive when each one calls a partial-differential-equation forward model. Mean-shift interacting particles need far fewer: they return a small set of signed-weight nodes – a deterministic quadrature whose weighted averages estimate those integrals. Finding the nodes, however, is a per-observation optimization that, in its most accurate form, reads the posterior score at every step – returning the cost it meant to save. We introduce amortized mean-shift interacting particles, a learned map that emits the weighted nodes from an observation and a few posterior samples in a single forward pass. Training asks only for joint parameter-observation samples and a posterior to draw from – a conditional normalizing flow, an empirical conditional, or any reference the user can sample – and the map learns to integrate that posterior from samples alone, evaluating neither its density nor its score. Once trained, it generalizes to unseen observations and integrands at any node budget and improves on independent samples in two ways: by reweighting them, provably no worse than the equal weights of Monte-Carlo; and by moving them, which empirically lowers it further. Across closed-form, sampled, learned, and physics-based posteriors – up to a thousand-coefficient groundwater field – it integrates more accurately than the same number of samples at every budget, and a posterior-whitened, dimension-aware kernel removes the high-dimensional wall. The result is a Pareto improvement on Monte-Carlo integration, not a competitor to drawing more samples.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Reversal Q-Learning

arXiv:2606.17551v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Iterative generative modeling techniques, such as flow matching, provide powerful tools to model complex behaviors for effective offline reinforcement learning (RL). In this work, we propose a new off-policy RL algorithm that trains a flow policy based on prior data. Our idea starts from the "expanded" Markov decision process (MDP) framework, which treats individual flow refinement steps as separate actions in an MDP. To enable off-policy RL within this framework, we apply two techniques: we generate virtual on-policy trajectories (by "reversing" flows) to make this framework compatible with prior data, and we apply a bias-and-variance reduction technique to mitigate the curse of horizon in off-policy RL. We call the resulting algorithm Reversal Q-learning (RQL). RQL has several advantages over previous flow-based RL methods: it does not suffer from backpropagation through time, makes better use of the learned value function, and directly trains the full, expressive flow policy. Through our experiments on 50 challenging simulated robotic tasks, we show that RQL leads to the best average offline RL performance compared to state-of-the-art flow-based offline RL algorithms.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

MetaboNet-Bench: A Multi-modal Benchmark for Glucose Forecasting in Type 1 Diabetes

arXiv:2606.18640v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Glucose forecasting algorithms are an important aspect of glycemic control management in type 1 diabetes. So far, the research community has developed numerous algorithms and models for forecasting. However, it is well-recognized that the lack of standardized model performance evaluation benchmarks makes fair comparison difficult and hinders further innovation, and thus benchmark standardization is in urgent need. Furthermore, many published glucose forecasting algorithms are limited to CGM data alone, ignoring other multimodal signals such as insulin dosing and carbohydrate intake. Here, we introduce MetaboNet-Bench, a benchmark for multimodal glucose forecasting for patients with type 1 diabetes that provides an extensible open-source evaluation framework for comparison of glucose forecasting algorithms that leverage glucose, insulin, and carbohydrate data. We then demonstrate its utility by benchmarking several recently published glucose forecasting models and a custom multimodal time-series model, representing different model architectures. The results show that the benefit of adding data modalities is conditioned on the complexity of the model and that incorporating more clinical metrics helps identify meaningful gaps to fill for future research.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

The Stable Recovery Manifold: Geometric Principles Governing Recoverability in Continual Learning

arXiv:2606.13637v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Catastrophic forgetting is often viewed as the destruction of previously learned knowledge during sequential learning. Building on the Accessibility Collapse framework, we investigate the geometric structure of recoverability in continual learning. Using Split CIFAR-100 and a sequentially trained ResNet-18, we analyze recoverability, representational drift, and recovery complexity across ten tasks. We introduce Recovery Subspace Dimensionality (k_t), a measure of the minimum number of singular directions required to preserve 90 percent of full probe performance. Contrary to our Recoverability Diffusion hypothesis, recovery dimensionality remains stable throughout training (mean k_t = 8.0) despite substantial representational drift. Principal-angle drift strongly predicts recoverability (r = -0.862), and a simple geometric model explains 82.2 percent of recoverability variance. These findings support the Stable Recovery Manifold hypothesis, suggesting that forgotten knowledge remains compactly decodable despite representational reorganization. The results indicate that catastrophic forgetting is primarily an accessibility and manifold-alignment problem rather than information destruction.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Spatiotemporal downscaling and nowcasting of urban land surface temperatures with deep neural networks

arXiv:2605.13566v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable for various applications, such as urban climate and ecology studies. Yet, existing satellite-derived LST products provide either high spatial or high temporal resolution, resulting in a fundamental trade-off between the two. To address this trade-off, we combine observations from a geostationary and a polar orbiting satellite and provide LST fields at high spatial and high temporal resolution (1 km at 15-min intervals). We demonstrate their application for intraday forecasting of LSTs. To estimate LST fields at high spatiotemporal resolution, a U-Net model is trained to map LST fields from SEVIRI/MSG (3 km and 15 min resolution) to LST fields from Terra/Aqua MODIS (1 km, 4 overpasses per day) that are collocated in space and time. The presented model has been trained on LSTs across large European cities with a population exceeding 1 million inhabitants, and achieves an RMSE = $1.92${\deg}C and near-zero bias MBE = $0.01${\deg}C on the hold-out test set. As a second step, we present an LST nowcasting model based on ConvLSTM architecture, trained across downscaled LST fields with forecast lead times of 15 to 75 minutes. The nowcasting model outperforms a persistence and a Climatological Rolling Median benchmarks, with RMSEs of $0.57$ to $1.15${\deg}C for the considered lead times and biases ranging from $-0.1$ to $0.14${\deg}C. An additional validation conducted against independent MODIS overpasses confirms robust performance. Our LST forecast model at high spatiotemporal resolution is directly applicable to operational satellite-based LST monitoring.

22.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Information gain and measurement disturbance for quantum agents

arXiv:2402.08060v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The traditional formalism of quantum measurement (hereafter ``TQM'') describes processes where some properties of quantum states are extracted and stored as classical information. While TQM is a natural and appropriate description of how humans interact with quantum systems, it is silent on the question of how a more general, quantum, agent would do so. How do we describe the observation of a system by an observer with the ability to store not only classical information but quantum states in its memory? In this paper, we extend the idea of measurement to a more general class of sensors for quantum agents which interact with a system in such a way that the agent's memory stores information (classical or quantum) about the system under study. For appropriate sensory interactions, the quantum agent may ``learn'' more about the system than would be possible under any set of classical measurements – but as we show, this comes at the cost of additional measurement disturbance. We experimentally demonstrate such a system and characterize the tradeoffs by considering the channel capacity required to erase the effect of a measurement.

23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

A Quantitative Analysis of Multimodal Biomarkers in Alzheimer's Disease

Despite increasing adoption of multimodal approaches in Alzheimer's Disease (AD) research – aimed at integrating molecular, structural, clinical, and genetic biomarkers to enhance disease characterization – the relationships among these modalities remain poorly understood. A systematic analysis of their dynamic interaction is essential for improving disease modeling, identifying redundant assessments, and reducing patient burden and acquisition costs. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis of multimodal AD biomarkers by integrating tau-PET, structural MRI, cognitive scores (MMSE and CDR), and APOE4 data from 789 subjects drawn from the ADNI dataset. In our analyses, we (A) quantify cross-modal mutual information and explained variance to assess redundancy and predictive dependencies; (B) examine associations between tau topologies and structural atrophy across brain regions to select informative ROIs; (C) perform a statistical decomposition of the tau-cognition association into atrophy-related and atrophy-independent components; (D) and identify a dominant neurodegenerative trajectory that aligns with cognitive decline. This study provides a systematic characterization of cross-modal relationships, improving the interpretability and selection of biomarkers in AD. Code is publicly available at: https://github.com/antonioscardace/Multimodal-AD.

24.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

AFFORDABILITY OF INTOXICATION FROM CHEAP ETHANOL: EVIDENCE FROM RETAIL ALCOHOL MARKETS IN UGANDA

Background: Alcohol affordability is a determinant of consumption and alcohol-related harm. In many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), informal production, variable alcohol strength, and non-standard packaging complicate conventional affordability measures, limiting evidence on the economic accessibility of alcohol and the cost of intoxication. Objective: To assess the affordability of intoxication in Uganda by estimating the cost of obtaining ethanol to reach intoxication across alcohol products, packaging types, and retail contexts. Methods: Data were collected on 824 alcoholic beverages from urban, rural, and urban-slum retail markets. Ethanol-standardized pricing (price per gram of alcohol) was calculated, and the cost of consuming 60 g of ethanol was estimated. Multivariate regression identified determinants of ethanol affordability. Results: Affordability varied by product type and packaging. Opaque beers and illicit spirits provided the cheapest pathways to intoxication, with median costs of UGX 1,200-1,500 per 60 g of ethanol. Plastic packaging was associated with lower ethanol costs than glass packaging. Ethanol prices differed across formal and informal markets (p < 0.01), while rural areas and urban informal settlements had 20-25% lower costs than urban areas. Regulatory status alone did not predict affordability. Conclusions: In Ugandas diverse alcohol market, affordability is driven by access to ethanol rather than beverage price alone. Low-cost, high-strength alcohol sold through informal channels enables intoxication at minimal expense, among disadvantaged populations. Implications: Alcohol policies should target ethanol content through minimum unit pricing, alcohol-content-based taxation, and regulation of informal markets and packaging practices to reduce harmful consumption and inequities.

25.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

A multistate model of frailty progression after severe infections in adults >=65 years in England: a matched-cohort study

Background Evidence on frailty progression following severe infections is limited. We compared rates of transition to greater frailty or death between adults with and without severe infection in England. Methods We conducted a matched-cohort study among adults aged [&ge;]65 years (1,452,117: median age 76 years, 45% male) in Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum (2006-2019). Adults with severe infection (hospitalised primarily due to infection) were matched on calendar time to individuals without severe infection on age, sex, and primary care practice. The admission date was used as index date and same was assigned to matched unexposed adults. We measured frailty using Electronic Frailty Index, a proportion of 36 health deficits in validated categories (Fit 0-0.12, Mild >0.12-0.24, Moderate >0.24-0.36, Severe >0.36). In a time-varying Markov multistate model, we focused on forward transitions from baseline or intermediate frailty states to higher states or death. For each transition, we used Cox regression to estimate cause-specific transition hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), comparing adults with and without severe infection. We adjusted for baseline frailty score, age, sex, deprivation, harmful alcohol use, smoking, and primary care infection history 5 years before index date. We estimated state occupancy probabilities, and expected length of stay (ELOS) in each state at year five among adults with and without severe infection. We explored effect modification by infection type. Results Across all transitions, severe infection was associated with higher adjusted hazards of transitioning to worsening frailty or death, HR, 95% CI: (fit to: mild[1.56, 1.54-1.58], moderate[2.51, 1.79-3.51], death[4.57, 4.50-4.65]; mild to: moderate[1.52, 1.50-1.53], severe[1.90, 1.43-2.52], death[2.67, 2.64-2.70]; moderate to: severe[1.40, 1.38-1.42], death[1.87, 1.85-1.90]; severe to death[1.48, 1.46-1.50]). Transition hazard ratios were strongest for lower respiratory tract infections, followed by sepsis, urinary tract infections, meningitis/encephalitis, gastroenteritis, and skin and soft tissue infections. At five years, adults with severe infection had higher probabilities of transitioning to greater frailty or death across all transitions and lower ELOS in each frailty state than those without severe infection. Interpretation Severe infections may accelerate frailty deterioration in older age. Prevention through vaccination, early detection, and prompt management may help mitigate this decline.