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01.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Convergence to the Brownian CRT for critical branching Markov processe

arXiv:2601.05906v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We prove an invariance principle for a general class of continuous time critical branching processes with finite variance (non-local) branching mechanism. We show that the genealogical trees, viewed as random compact metric measure spaces, converge under rescaling to the Brownian continuum random tree in the Gromov-Hausdorff-weak topology, establishing a universal scaling limit for critical finite variance branching processes.

02.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Generalized Exact Fractional Quantum Information Model with Memory Effects

arXiv:2606.13525v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper, we analyze quantum information measures in fractional quantum mechanics using the Riemann-Liouville derivative formalism adopted here. In this case, we initially reconsider the conventional definitions of Shannon entropy and Fisher information, subsequently extending them to fractional quantum systems described by nonlocal differential operator frameworks adopted. Within this generalized formulation, fractional expressions of Shannon entropy and Fisher information are constructed and their mathematical structures examined thoroughly. Also, the formalism is then applied to the quantum harmonic oscillator, yielding explicit analytical expressions derived as functions of the fractional parameter therein. The obtained results demonstrate that fractional derivatives alter the localization properties of probability densities and generate nontrivial variations in information content and sensitivity across system behavior. In this context, the fractional parameter plays a central role in controlling deviations from the standard quantum information measures framework. Also, the study establishes a consistent framework for describing information-theoretic properties of quantum systems governed by nonlocal dynamics.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

AlignCoder: Aligning Retrieval with Target Intent for Repository-Level Code Completion

arXiv:2601.19697v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Repository-level code completion remains a challenging task for existing code large language models (code LLMs) due to their limited understanding of repository-specific context and domain knowledge. While retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) approaches have shown promise by retrieving relevant code snippets as cross-file context, they suffer from two fundamental problems: misalignment between the query and the target code in the retrieval process, and the inability of existing retrieval methods to effectively utilize the inference information. To address these challenges, we propose AlignCoder, a repository-level code completion framework that introduces a query enhancement mechanism and a reinforcement learning based retriever training method. Our approach generates multiple candidate completions to construct an enhanced query that bridges the semantic gap between the initial query and the target code. Additionally, we employ reinforcement learning to train an AlignRetriever that learns to leverage inference information in the enhanced query for more accurate retrieval. We evaluate AlignCoder on two widely-used benchmarks (CrossCodeEval and RepoEval) across five backbone code LLMs, demonstrating an 18.1% improvement in EM score compared to baselines on the CrossCodeEval benchmark. The results show that our framework achieves superior performance and exhibits high generalizability across various code LLMs and programming languages.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

CODA-BENCH: Can Code Agents Handle Data-Intensive Tasks?

Advanced agents are increasingly demonstrating the potential to operate as autonomous engineers, creating a growing demand for evaluation benchmarks that capture the complexity of real-world development. Such environments typically involve both complex code and large-scale data (i.e., file system). However, existing benchmarks usually evaluate code-centric or data-centric capabilities in isolation, leaving a clear gap with real development scenarios. In this paper, we bridge this gap by introducing CODA-BENCH, the first benchmark to jointly evaluate code and data intelligence in a data-intensive environment. We construct a data-intensive Linux sandbox based on the Kaggle ecosystem (containing hundreds of datasets), where agents must actively explore complex file hierarchies to identify relevant resources and generate code for data-driven analytical tasks. CODA-BENCH comprises 1,009 tasks spanning 31 communities, with each task environment containing an average of 980 files, simulating realistic data scale and noise. Evaluations of advanced agents reveal that even top-performing systems struggle to effectively integrate data discovery with code execution, achieving a success rate of only 61.1%. These results highlight a substantial gap in current agentic capabilities for data-intensive tasks and point to promising directions for future research.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

On the Redundancy of Timestep Embeddings in Diffusion Models

arXiv:2606.20416v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Diffusion models rely heavily on explicit timestep embeddings to modulate the denoising process across various noise scales. In this work, we challenge the necessity of these temporal signals by analyzing their impact on U-Net and Diffusion Transformer architectures. Beyond empirical evidence, we provide a theoretical framework demonstrating that, under certain conditions, the global minimizer of the diffusion training objective can be achieved without explicit timestep conditioning. Our findings reveal a surprising robustness when timestep embeddings are completely removed. Extensive ablation studies on the CelebA and CIFAR-10 datasets show that these time-agnostic models can maintain high structural fidelity and even surpass their conditioned counterparts in competitive metrics, including FID, precision, and recall. Our analysis suggests these architectures can implicitly infer noise scales from the corrupted input under specific assumptions, rendering explicit temporal conditioning redundant. This study challenges long-standing temporal conditioning paradigms and paves the way for more efficient and structurally focused generative architectures.

06.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

The Backward Stochastic Partial Differential Integral Equations: Solvability and Comparison Principle

arXiv:2606.16237v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The paper is concerned with the well-posedness of backward stochastic partial differential equations with jumps, also called backward stochastic partial differential integral equations. We start from the proof for the existence and uniqueness of solution to backward stochastic evolution equation with jump in the Gelfand triple framework. Then the well-posedness of both weak solution and strong solution to backward stochastic partial differential integral equation is obtained with the Gelfand triple replaced by specific Sobolev spaces. Finally, the comparison principle for backward stochastic partial differential integral equation is proved, which has potential applications in financial mathematics.

07.
Nature Medicine 2026-06-10

Brain Health for Economic Resilience: a data-driven framework for the brain-positive economic transition

Announced in this Comment and in collaboration with Nature Medicine is the convening of the Brain Health for Economic Resilience Commission, a global, transdisciplinary effort to define, measure and operationalize brain health and cognitive capacity as foundational drivers of economic resilience.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Recursive Scaling in Masked Diffusion Models

arXiv:2606.18022v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have recently emerged as a promising paradigm for sequence generation. Scaling MDMs is conventionally achieved by increasing the parameter count or the number of denoising steps. We introduce Recursive Masked Diffusion Models (R-MDMs), which add recursive depth as a third scaling axis by repeatedly applying the same denoising transformer within each diffusion step. Recursion enables iterative refinement of the output through parameter reuse, increasing effective model depth without increasing parameter count. Across structured generation tasks, including Sudoku and Countdown, we show that R-MDMs achieve substantially improved parameter efficiency: a model with $L$ recursive iterations often matches the performance of non-recursive baselines with roughly $L\times$ more parameters. Moreover, recursive refinement can partially substitute for additional denoising steps, allowing recursive models to reach the same generation quality with fewer forward passes at inference time. These results suggest that recursive depth is a practically useful scaling mechanism for MDMs, improving both parameter efficiency and the allocation of test-time compute.

09.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-23

A novel biclustering algorithm for mining m<sup>6</sup>A co-methylation patterns based on beta-binomial distribution and data screening strategy

作者:

by Zhaoyang Liu, Yuteng Xiao, Dao Xiang, Hao Shi, Kaijian Xia Studies have shown that m6A plays a key role in different life processes such as RNA metabolism, physiology and pathology. However, due to the complexity of life processes, its specific regulatory details are still not revealed. The computational approach based on co-methylation pattern mining of m6A sequencing data can assist in revealing its mechanism and save time and economic cost, however, the current algorithms suffer from the problems of insufficient robustness to low signal-to-noise data and unreliable performance. Based on this, this paper proposes an enhanced beta-binomial distribution biclustering algorithm (EBBM) based on data screening strategy. This algorithm is based on the framework of Bayesian, adopts Gibbs sampling method for parameter inference, and introduces the data screening strategy in the process of parameter inference, which effectively removes the problem that the low signal-to-noise data in the original sequencing data of m6A affects the reliability of the clustering results. The simulation experiment results show that this algorithm can effectively deal with the interference of low signal-to-noise data and accurately mine the co-methylation patterns pre-planted in the data, which is significantly better than the current mainstream biclustering algorithm. In real human m6A sequencing data with 32 samples, this algorithm mined two effective co-methylation patterns, which were enriched to different biological processes, such as negative regulation of phosphorylation and peptidyl lysine methylation, etc. The scoring results of GEO_Score indicate that the results of this algorithm are more biologically meaningful than the clustering results of current mainstream m6A co-methylation pattern mining algorithms.

10.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Mean-field limits for stochastic particle systems on dense graphs

arXiv:2606.11369v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study stochastic interacting particle systems whose interaction structure is described by dense weighted directed graphs converging to a graphon. In the thermodynamic limit, we prove a law of large numbers for the empirical measure process and derive a deterministic nonlinear master equation describing the macroscopic evolution. The limiting equation retains the heterogeneous interaction structure of the microscopic system through the limiting graphon, allowing for spatially non-homogeneous behaviors such as localized or community-type interactions.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Multi-Head Attention-Based Feature Extractor Integration with Soft Actor-Critic for Porosity Prediction and Process Parameter Optimization in Additive Manufacturing

arXiv:2606.20087v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Additive manufacturing process optimization requires precise parameter control to minimize defects such as porosity. Traditional reinforcement learning (RL) approaches using discrete action spaces suffer from slow convergence and susceptibility to local optima, limiting their effectiveness for high-precision manufacturing tasks. This study addresses these limitations by employing a continuous action space combined with a novel architecture that integrates a multi-head attention mechanism with the Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) algorithm. The attention-based feature extractor enhances the agent's ability to capture subtle variations in low-dimensional input features, enabling more effective exploration-exploitation balance for navigating value spaces with local minima. We validate our approach on porosity prediction and process parameter optimization in laser powder bed fusion, demonstrating faster convergence and higher final reward values compared to standard RL methods including DQN, PPO, TD3, and vanilla SAC. The proposed methodology achieves a convergence value of 322.79 within 14 episodes, outperforming existing approaches while maintaining stability throughout training.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Automating SKILL.md Generation for Computer-Using Agents via Interaction Trajectory Mining

arXiv:2606.20363v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Explicit skill libraries make computer-using agents easier to inspect, but it remains unclear whether such libraries can be mined from interaction data in a way that improves downstream policies. We study this question through a three-stage pipeline that segments GUI trajectories, clusters segments into candidate skills, and trains a skill-aware policy from the resulting annotations. The mined clusters are readable on the source benchmark: five of eight clusters have at least 0.95 purity against InteraSkill Workflows labels. However, readability does not imply transfer. GRPO improves IW skill-step accuracy only from 18.5\% to 20.5\%, leaves BrowseComp+ essentially unchanged, and underperforms trivial frequency priors on key source-domain metrics. We therefore present the method as a diagnostic study: trajectory mining can expose inspectable skill structure, but the current boundary detector, orderless segment representation, and offline reward model are insufficient for reliable cross-domain policy improvement.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

A BART-based approach with hierarchical strategy for Vietnamese abstractive multi-document summarization

In this technical report, we focus on solving the challenge of Vietnamese multi-document abstractive summarization, introduced in the International Workshop on Vietnamese Language and Speech Processing (VLSP) 2022. We choose to follow the popular hierarchical approach, i.e. condensing each document followed by aggregation and summarization. We propose a novel yet simple strategy to shorten documents that is driven by the golden summary, thus ensuring high correlation between stages of the hierarchical approach. Our method achieves a ROUGE2-F1 score of 0.2468 on the VLSP's public test set, and can produce fluent and concise summaries. Additionally, we utilize external sources for extra data, which greatly enhances the quantity of data for Vietnamese multi-document summarization. The additional data is made available for the community.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Bayesian Inference and Decision Audits for Public Archives of Frontier AI Evaluations

作者:

arXiv:2606.17005v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Public AI evaluations are often read as terminal leaderboards, yet the underlying evidence is a selective time series shaped by reporting rules, benchmark revisions, and missingness. Repeated public archives for LiveBench and Open LLM Leaderboard v2 serve as the primary longitudinal record; LMArena provides a preference stress test; and GAIA and tau-bench contribute limited agentic pilots. Together, these archives instantiate a Bayesian inference problem: under a fixed reporting convention, one constructed terminal-only example over $1{,}000$ systems is compatible with two pre-terminal histories, yielding times of $23.03$ or $75.13$ to reach within $0.05$ of the ceiling under the same terminal-tail model. In synthetic posterior comparisons, action-facing diagnostics differ across observation regimes. The candidate selection-aware frontier model fails synthetic recovery, objective-archive prediction, preference transfer, and uncertainty calibration; correspondingly, fixed audit gates reject its stronger claims. An archive-and-adjudication protocol reconstructs public evaluation histories, isolates a verified timing boundary, and falsifies unsupported frontier claims.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

CausalT5k: Diagnosing Refusal and Failure Modes in Trustworthy Causal Reasoning Across Causal Rungs

arXiv:2602.08939v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models increasingly produce fluent causal explanations, yet they often fail in ways aggregate accuracy cannot diagnose: confusing association with intervention, abandoning correct judgments under pressure, over-refusing valid claims, or answering when evidence is underdetermined. We introduce CTK, a diagnostic benchmark of 5,147 cases and growing, across 10 domains and all three levels of Pearl's Ladder of Causation. Unlike benchmarks that only score correctness, CTK reveals why a model failed by annotating causal rung, trap type, pressure sensitivity, refusal quality, and Utility-Safety tradeoffs. Its Sheep/Wolf taxonomy separates valid causal designs from inferential traps; paired neutral/pressure variants measure sycophantic drift through Bad Flip Rate; and Wise Refusal fields test whether a model identifies the missing information needed before endorsing a claim. CTK exposes failure modes hidden by aggregate accuracy: the Skepticism Trap, Rung Collapse under scaling, pressure-induced drift, Detection-Correction gaps, and counterfactual error modes. Rather than prescribing a correction method, it provides the diagnostic substrate for studying causal-reasoning failure profiles.

17.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Association of circulating endothelial progenitor cell count and functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke due to intracranial large vessel occlusion

Background: Circulating endothelial progenitor cells (cEPCs) contribute to vascular repair following an ischemic stroke. The aim of the study was to evaluate the association between cEPCs and functional outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) due to large vessel occlusion (LVO) who received endovascular therapy (EVT). Methods: Prospective study of patients with LVO-AIS who received EVT. Blood samples were obtained within 24 +- 12 hours and on day 7+-1 from stroke onset. cEPCs were detected using flow cytometry (CD34+/VEGFR2+/CD133+). The primary endpoint was a favourable functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale 0-2) at three months of follow-up. Secondary endpoints include baseline to 24 hours/day 7 changes in the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score and collateral circulation (CC) status. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed. Results: Included were 90 patients (73.2+-12.7 years, 41.1% women) in 42 of whom (46.7%) cEPCs were detected at 24 hours. On day 7, cEPCs were detected in 27 (43.6%) of 62 patients for which this information was available. Atrial fibrillation, prior anticoagulant treatment and stroke onset-to-door time

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

CORE-Bench: Fostering the Credibility of Published Research Through a Computational Reproducibility Agent Benchmark

AI agents have the potential to aid users on a variety of consequential tasks, including conducting scientific research. To spur the development of useful agents, we need benchmarks that are challenging, but more crucially, directly correspond to real-world tasks of interest. This paper introduces such a benchmark, designed to measure the accuracy of AI agents in tackling a crucial yet surprisingly challenging aspect of scientific research: computational reproducibility. This task, fundamental to the scientific process, involves reproducing the results of a study using the provided code and data. We introduce CORE-Bench (Computational Reproducibility Agent Benchmark), a benchmark consisting of 270 tasks based on 90 scientific papers across three disciplines (computer science, social science, and medicine). Tasks in CORE-Bench consist of three difficulty levels and include both language-only and vision-language tasks. We provide an evaluation system to measure the accuracy of agents in a fast and parallelizable way, saving days of evaluation time for each run compared to a sequential implementation. We evaluated two baseline agents: the general-purpose AutoGPT and a task-specific agent called CORE-Agent. We tested both variants using two underlying language models: GPT-4o and GPT-4o-mini. The best agent achieved an accuracy of 21% on the hardest task, showing the vast scope for improvement in automating routine scientific tasks. Having agents that can reproduce existing work is a necessary step towards building agents that can conduct novel research and could verify and improve the performance of other research agents. We hope that CORE-Bench can improve the state of reproducibility and spur the development of future research agents.

19.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Agon: An Autonomous Large-Scale Omnidisciplinary Research System Built on Prompt Economy

Large language models are making research production scalable, shifting the bottleneck from producing artifacts to judging claims. We present \textsc{Agon}, a research orchestrator that validates what can be checked inside the workflow and leaves the remaining judgments to human scientists. \textsc{Agon} is built on six design principles: Prompt Economy, Future-Facing, Minimal Prompts, OmniDisciplinary, Massive Parallelism, and Zero-Code. We ran \textsc{Agon} across domains for 444 iterations of Prompt Economy loops, using only small starting topics and no human-written experimental code. These deployments demonstrate scalability while exposing new classes of failure. We organize these failures into a taxonomy along severity, fixability, visibility, and capability locus. The taxonomy separates failures the loops can see and fix from those that require human judgment. Together, these results show that \textsc{Agon} is pushing research toward a new paradigm: machine scales, human steers.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Information-Theoretic Measures in AI: A Practical Decision Guide

arXiv:2604.23716v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Information-theoretic (IT) measures are ubiquitous in artificial intelligence: entropy drives decision-tree splits and uncertainty quantification, cross-entropy is the default classification loss, mutual information underpins representation learning and feature selection, and transfer entropy reveals directed influence in dynamical systems. A second, less consolidated family of measures, integrated information (Phi), effective information (EI), and autonomy, has emerged for characterizing agent complexity. Despite wide adoption, measure selection is often decoupled from estimator assumptions, failure modes, and safe inferential claims. This paper provides a practical decision framework for all seven measures, organized around three prescriptive questions for each: (i) what question does the measure answer and in which AI context; (ii) which estimator is appropriate for the data type and dimensionality; and (iii) what is the most dangerous misuse. The framework is operationalized in two complementary artifacts: a measure-selection flowchart and a master decision table. We cover both AI/ML and decision-making agent application domains per measure, with standardized Bridge Boxes linking IT quantities to cognitive constructs. Three worked examples illustrate the framework on concrete practitioner scenarios spanning representation learning, temporal influence analysis, and evolved agent complexity.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

TechRAG: Evidence-Gated Multimodal Agentic RAG for Technical Literature Reasoning

arXiv:2606.01613v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper presents an agentic multimodal retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) framework for domain-specific literature reasoning, instantiated on a curated corpus of several thousand papers in intelligent tires, vehicle dynamics, vehicle control, sensing, estimation, and machine learning. Unlike conventional single-pass RAG systems, the proposed architecture uses an autonomous, evidence-gated pipeline that classifies query intent, generates separate text and visual query rewrites, performs hybrid text retrieval with FAISS and BM25 followed by cross-encoder reranking, expands evidence through graph-guided chunk traversal over a Neo4j knowledge graph, and retrieves visual document evidence using ColSmol late-interaction embeddings with MUVERA fixed-dimensional encoding, approximate nearest-neighbor search, and MaxSim reranking. The framework scores evidence sufficiency using a 100-point rubric with hybrid rule-based/LLM review, retries retrieval through drift-guarded reformulation, searches external academic databases through optimize–search–vet loops, merges and deduplicates multimodal evidence, verifies citation integrity, and generates cited answers through Planner, Researcher, Writer, and Critic agents with self-correcting revision. Key contributions include: (i) a scalable multimodal retrieval architecture combining text, graph, and visual evidence over 40,000 document pages; (ii) an interpretable evidence sufficiency and retry mechanism; (iii) a multi-agent generation pipeline with evidence mapping and critic-driven revision; (iv) a domain knowledge graph with LLM-based entity extraction, OpenAlex author validation, and intra-corpus citation resolution; and (v) a route-dependent external search architecture for targeted literature expansion. The result is a practical, evidence-gated, multimodal agentic RAG architecture for technical reasoning over specialized research corpora.

22.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Split-Evolution Quantum Phase Estimation for Particle-Conserving Hamiltonians

arXiv:2604.14921v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a hardware demonstration and resource analysis of split-evolution quantum phase estimation (SE-QPE) on a Quantinuum System Model H2 quantum computer. SE-QPE is a modification to canonical QPE for particle-conserving Hamiltonians in which controlled time evolution is replaced by CSWAP-based interference between a target register and a reference register. For factorizations of time evolution with a shared eigenbasis, SE-QPE preserves the phase-register outcome distribution of canonical QPE and, unlike with compute–uncompute substitutions, it remains compatible with non-exact eigenstates. The substitution removes controlled-simulation overhead and enables parallel evolution on two registers, reducing the depth of each phase-kickback block. Resource analysis for Trotterized double-factorized chemistry Hamiltonians shows that the substitution becomes increasingly favorable at higher phase powers and combining QPE and SE-QPE implementations can be a useful option. Over a range of FeMoco active spaces, SE-QPE reduces time evolution resources, with asymptotic reductions of about 33% in CX count, 25% in $T$ count, and an asymptotic depth ratio of $3/N$ for CX layers. On Quantinuum H2-2, a four-qubit model ethylene demonstration with explicit inverse QFT and repeated phase-kickback steps up to 8 phase bits yields distinct energies and shows the auxiliary registers provide useful error detection filters.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

AI Coding Agents in Social Science: Methodologically Diverse, Empirically Consistent, Interpretively Vulnerable

The deployment of LLM-based agents in scientific analysis raises opposing concerns: that agents may reduce methodological diversity, or that they may amplify the analytic flexibility through which researchers reach motivated conclusions. We argue these worries target two empirically separable layers: a design layer of methodological choices, and a verdict layer in which a decision rule maps estimates to a substantive claim. We test both by running 20 independent executions of Claude Code and Codex on a prominent immigration and social-policy against a many-analysts human baseline. At the design layer, Codex matches human methodological diversity and Claude Code produces nearly three times as many specifications; both agents' effect estimates remain broadly aligned with the human consensus, and no agent model exactly matches any human model. A prompt-induced anti-immigration researcher prior reorganizes each agent's methodological decisions but, unlike for biased human analysts in the same data, does not shift aggregate estimates or final verdicts; nor do agents reroute along the methodological axes humans use to bias their estimates. At the verdict layer, an explicit confirmatory prompt flips Claude Code's verdicts from 10% to 90% support while leaving its coefficient distribution essentially unchanged, operating through rule omission rather than rule softening. AI agents can rival or exceed human methodological diversity at the design layer while remaining vulnerable at the verdict layer. In our setting, the locus of AI bias is not estimation but interpretation.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Pointwise is Pointless? A Multimodal Ablation Study for Precipitation Nowcasting with Graph Neural Networks

arXiv:2606.18436v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sparse point observations are increasingly available for precipitation nowcasting, but it is unclear how much they improve dense radar-field forecasts. We partially address this question with a multimodal graph neural network nowcasting system over the Nordic radar domain. The model predicts rain rate every five minutes up to two hours ahead and is trained with different combinations of radar history, MEPS numerical weather prediction, Netatmo surface observations, MSG satellite channels, stochastic noise, and CRPS-based ensemble losses. The study is designed as an ablation of operationally relevant information sources and training objectives. We compare radar-only, NWP-informed, station-informed, satellite-informed, noise-augmented, and CRPS-based configurations using complementary diagnostics on the radar grid, at station locations, for rain onset, and through oracle, displacement, and amplitude scores. The results show that each source improves a different part of the forecast problem. MEPS stabilises radar-only extrapolation, Netatmo observations improve local station and onset diagnostics, and satellite predictors reduce some station-level biases but may activate rain too early when used deterministically. CRPS-based configurations provide the most consistent radar-grid gains, while the combined satellite and CRPS setup gives the best overall oracle/DAS score. These results do not support the conclusion that point observations are uninformative for nowcasting, but they show that local observational skill and spatially coherent radar-field skill are distinct targets. The practical implication is that sparse observations can provide useful local constraints, but their benefit for radar-like fields depends on the training loss, uncertainty representation, and how observation support is encoded in the model.

25.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Burden of Cardiovascular Disease in Brazil, 1996-2023: A Retrospective Descriptive Study of the Epidemiology and Impact on Public Healthcare with Emphasis on Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death worldwide, and their epidemiology is correlated with genetic predisposition, exposure to risk factors, sex, age, access to medical care, and other sociodemographic characteristics. Brazil is a developing country with a vast territory, which leads to structural inequalities. Estimates of CVD in Brazil, in its regions, and in its population are poorly evaluated and analysed. Methods We obtained CVD-related data from the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) and analysed mortality and morbidity from 1996 to 2023 by sex, race/ethnicity, age, and region. We calculated the risk of death from the most prevalent diseases, the average length of hospital stay, and the costs associated with heart transplantation. Findings In Brazil, acute myocardial infarction was the pathology that led to the highest number of deaths across all variables analysed during the evaluated period. Other CVD were also related to causes of death and morbidity, such as hypertensive diseases and heart failure. Interpretation Brazil presents a serious challenge to the public health system due to the high number of deaths and the progressive mortality rate. This study represents a fundamental contribution to the basis for formulating public health policies aimed at reducing the growing impact associated with these diseases. Funding CNPq, CAPES, FAPEMIG, INCT