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01.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Estimating the effectiveness of syndromic screening at airports for Bundibugyo ebolavirus disease

作者:
Quilty↗B. J↗

We used a stochastic simulation model to estimate the effectiveness of combined exit and entry airport screening for Bundibugyo ebolavirus disease (BVD), using natural-history parameters from a Bayesian re-analysis of the 2012 Isiro outbreak. For a 12-hour international flight from DRC or Uganda at 86% screening sensitivity, we estimate 65% of infected travellers would arrive undetected (95% CrI: 38 - 76%). The main driver of this outcome is the relative duration of the the incubation period (approximately 7.7 days) and the onset-to-severe-disease interval (approximately 4 days): most infected travellers board before symptom onset and are undetectable by any syndromic screen, whilst those who are symptomatic progress rapidly to illness severe enough to preclude travel. This is compounded during active epidemic growth, when recently exposed (and therefore pre-symptomatic) cases are overrepresented among travellers. Syndromic airport screening offers limited protection against BVD spread via air travel, and should be complemented by outbreak control at source and strengthened clinical surveillance in receiving countries with high travel connectivity to affected areas.

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02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Extracting Semantics: LLM-Guided Automatic Population of Robot Ontology from URDF

作者:
Bastien Dussard↗Guillaume Sarthou↗

arXiv:2606.17073v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While commonsense knowledge may suffice for virtual agents, embodied robots interacting with humans require grounded and semantically rich representations of both their environment and their own physical embodiment. In cognitive robotics, ontologies are effective for integrating such heterogeneous knowledge to enable explainable reasoning, even during continuous knowledge updates. Yet, their manual construction remains a bottleneck. We present a preliminary approach for the automatic generation of robot semantic abstractions by transforming Unified Robot Description Format (URDF) models into populated ontologies. Although URDF files provide structural and kinematic descriptions, their identifiers often require commonsense interpretation to recover meaningful semantics, a task at which Large Language Models (LLMs) excel. Our pipeline leverages LLMs to infer semantic relationships by prompting them with concepts from an existing ontology, ensuring the final classification remains aligned with the formal model. To improve reliability, the pipeline combines majority voting across multiple LLM queries along with syntactic and schema-level validation to ensure that generated outputs conform to the expected representation format and ontology constraints. We evaluate the approach on multiple robot descriptions and discuss the generated abstractions. Initial results indicate that the proposed method can effectively bridge the gap between low-level robot descriptions and the structured, grounded knowledge representations required for human-robot interaction.

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03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

You Don't Need to Run Every Eval

作者:
Yuchen Zeng↗Dimitris Papailiopoulos↗

arXiv:2606.24020v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A modern model release reports scores on 40+ benchmarks and the same evaluations were run many more times before it: to track training progress, compare design choices, and select the checkpoint for the release. But do we need to run every eval? We compile a public score matrix of 84 frontier models on 133 benchmarks (2,604 cells, 23.3% filled) and find it is approximately rank-2: a model's scores across all 133 benchmarks are largely determined by just two numbers. We confirm this in two ways: scores hidden from the matrix are best recovered using two factors, and two factors already explain over 90% of the variation among models on the benchmarks they share. Building on this, we design BenchPress: a logit-space rank-2 matrix completion method that recovers held-out scores to within 4.6 points, and a confidence layer that says when each prediction can be trusted. Using BenchPress, we find a subset of five benchmarks {GPQA-D, HLE, Codeforces, MMLU-Pro, ARC-AGI-1} that can recover the rest of a model's public scorecard to within 3.93 points. For a tighter inference budget, a cheaper set {GPQA-D, MMLU-Pro, Aider Polyglot, MATH-500, AIME 2026} can predict a model's evals to within 4.55. We release the score matrix, the BenchPress code, and an interactive tool that predicts any model's score on any benchmark.

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04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Teaching Values to Machines: Simulating Human-Like Behavior in LLMs

作者:
Asaf Yehudai↗Naama Rozen↗Ariel Gera↗

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate a remarkable capacity to adopt different personas and roles; however, it remains unclear whether they can manifest behavior that adheres to a coherent, human-like value structure. In this work, we draw on established psychological value theory to induce human-like values in LLMs and assess their alignment with patterns observed in human studies. Using validated psychological questionnaires, we conduct large-scale experiments – over 5 million questions – to evaluate value structures and value-behavior relationships in leading LLMs and compare them to humans. Our findings reveal strong agreement between value-prompted LLMs and humans across both dimensions. Moreover, incorporating human value distributions enhances population-level simulations with value-induced LLMs. These findings highlight the potential of value-induced LLMs as effective, psychologically grounded tools for simulating human behavior.

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05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

MAND: Modality-Aware Novelty Detection for Open-World Egocentric Activity Recognition

作者:
Hyejeong Im↗Wonseon Lim↗Dae-Won Kim↗

Multimodal egocentric activity recognition integrates visual and inertial cues for robust first-person behavior understanding. However, deploying such systems in open-world environments requires detecting novel activities while continuously learning from non-stationary data streams. Existing methods rely on the main fused logits for novelty scoring, without fully exploiting the complementary evidence available from individual modalities. Because these logits are often dominated by RGB, cues from other modalities, particularly IMU, remain underutilized, and this imbalance worsens as catastrophic forgetting accumulates. To address this, we propose MAND, a modality-aware framework for multimodal egocentric open-world continual learning. At inference, Modality-aware Adaptive Scoring (MoAS) adaptively adjusts modality contributions using sample-wise reliability and refines novelty scoring with deviation and disagreement penalties. During training, Modality-aware Representation Stabilization Training (MoRST) preserves the discriminative capacity of each modality across tasks through modality-specific heads and modality-wise logit distillation. Experiments on a public multimodal egocentric benchmark show that MAND consistently improves novel activity detection and known-class accuracy while substantially reducing FPR95, indicating more reliable open-world recognition. The source code is available at \href{https://github.com/HyeJeongIm/MAND}{github.com/HyeJeongIm/MAND}.

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06.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Toward quantum-noise-limited interferometric measurements of optical nonlinearity in vacuum

作者:
Ali Aras↗Adrien E. Kraych↗Xavier Sarazin↗Elsa Baynard↗Fran\c{c}ois Couchot↗Moana Pittman↗

arXiv:2602.10896v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Quantum Electrodynamics predicts that the vacuum must behave as a nonlinear optical medium: the vacuum optical index should increase when it is stressed by intense electromagnetic fields. The DeLLight (Deflection of Light by Light) project aims to measure it by using intense and ultra-short laser pulses. The experiment uses a Sagnac interferometer to amplify the tiny deflection signal of a low-intensity probe pulse crossing the vacuum refractive-index gradient produced by an external high-intensity pump pulse. The measurement of the amplified signal by a CCD camera requires a high spatial resolution, which is limited by the ultimate quantum noise of the CCD. However, interferometric phase noise induced by the mechanical vibrations of the interferometer is also amplified and degrades spatial resolution. To overcome this, we propose a new method named High-Frequency Phase Noise Suppression (HFPNS), based on the addition of a delayed replica (5 ns) of the probe pulse. The delayed pulse, which is not affected by the pump but is subject to the same vibration noise, enables offline subtraction of correlated phase noise. In this work, we present an experimental proof-of-concept on a prototype interferometer operating with a limited amplification factor ($\mathcal{A}\simeq25$), about 10 times smaller than the required value of the final experiment. We have succeeded in reducing phase noise by a factor of 40, resulting in a residual noise level 2.3 times higher than the expected quantum noise. The residual noise is linked to delay-line instabilities and incident beam pointing fluctuations present during these tests. This result validates HFPNS as a robust method for future quantum-noise-limited interferometric measurements of vacuum optical nonlinearity, though additional stabilization and higher interferometric amplification are still needed.

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07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

MARS: Margin-Adversarial Risk-controlled Stopping for Parallel LLM Test-time Scaling

作者:
Wenbo Chen↗Puheng Li↗Mengyang Liu↗Weijie Su↗Tianpei Xie↗

arXiv:2606.12935v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Parallel test-time scaling samples many reasoning traces and majority-votes their answers, improving LLM accuracy but requiring traces to run to completion, incurring substantial computational overhead. We observe that probing partial traces at intermediate checkpoints can extract current answers without disrupting generation, revealing an evolving aggregate vote. Based on this observation, we introduce MARS, a margin-adversarial stopping rule that estimates which active traces are likely to change their answers and stops once the leader remains safe under a conservative bound on future vote movement. The rule separates two sources of uncertainty. It learns the trace-level switch probabilities that determine how much of the current margin is likely to be retained, while handling the harder question of where switching traces land through an adversarial bound calibrated from warmup traces. With true switch probabilities, MARS guarantees with high probability that the early-stopped answer matches the full-budget vote. In practice, a five-feature logistic model closely matches oracle switching behavior. Across three reasoning models and three competition-math benchmarks, MARS saves 25-47% of self-consistency tokens and 14-29% on top of DeepConf Online, a strong confidence-weighted baseline that already filters and truncates weak traces, while matching the accuracy of the corresponding full-budget baselines.

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08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Beyond AHI: An Interpretable Causal-Discovery-Guided Framework for Sleep Recovery in Connected Health

作者:
Saba A. Farahani↗Elahe Khatibi↗Manoj Vishwanath↗Amir M. Rahmani↗Hung Cao↗

arXiv:2606.18506v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Objective sleep assessment relies on polysomnography (PSG), yet clinical impact is often better reflected in patient-reported outcomes (PROs) such as sleepiness and fatigue. Existing summary indices, including the Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI), provide limited insight into the multidomain physiology underlying functional recovery. We propose an interpretable, causal-discovery–guided framework for deriving a hierarchical Sleep Recovery Score (SRS) from multimodal PSG. Using two large population cohorts (MESA: n=1540; MrOS: n=825), we apply directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning to identify candidate physiological drivers spanning respiratory burden, hypoxic burden, sleep fragmentation, sleep architecture, and autonomic regulation. Although derived from clinical PSG, these domains map naturally to sensing streams increasingly available in connected health technologies, including wearable ECG, oximetry, and sleep-stage estimation devices. To preserve mechanistic plausibility, we introduce a two-stage screening process that combines physiology-based constraints with constrained LLM-assisted auditing to identify and remove structural confounders and construct-overlapping variables. Across cohorts, these five domains emerge as recurrent physiological domains associated with recovery, and the resulting SRS shows up to 2.5$\times$ stronger alignment with perceived recovery than AHI. By linking multimodal sleep physiology to patient-centered outcomes through an interpretable, bias-aware, and domain structured framework, this work provides a practical foundation for recovery modeling across both clinical sleep studies and emerging smart and connected health settings.

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09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Combining Retrieval-Augmented Text Generation with LLMs for Reading Content Recommendations

作者:
Sooyeon Kim↗Piotr S. Maci\k{a}g↗

arXiv:2606.14817v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This work presents the design, implementation, and evaluation of a system for generating personalized reading content using Large Language Models (LLMs) combined with Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). The proposed architecture consists of four modules: Input, RAG, Generation, and Judging and enables users to specify both a question and a target reading content complexity. RAG is employed to retrieve relevant information from the Internet, enriching and grounding the content produced by three modern LLMs: Meta LLaMA 4 Scout, LLaMA 3.1 8B Instant, and Google Gemma2 9B. Reading materials are generated using three prompting strategies (Chain-of-Thought, zero-shot, and few-shot), and the LLM-as-a-Judge module automatically evaluates answer quality and alignment with the desired readability level. Experimental results show that RAG consistently improves system performance across all models and prompting techniques, increasing relevance and particularly groundedness by up to 26-35 percentage points. Overall, the findings demonstrate that the RAG-augmented architecture effectively produces reading content tailored to user queries and desired textual complexity.

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10.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Ultracold atomic lattice systems for simulating topological phases: A review

作者:
Bei-Bei Wang↗Xiao-Dong Lin↗Jinyi Zhang↗Long Zhang↗

arXiv:2606.16598v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Owing to rapid recent progress, ultracold atomic lattice systems for simulating topological phases are now at a pivotal stage, evolving from established paradigms into increasingly versatile and programmable quantum simulators. In this review, we survey recent experimental advances across four major classes of platforms: optical lattices, including optical lattices with laser-assisted tunneling and optical Raman lattices; synthetic lattices in momentum or internal-state space; Floquet-engineered lattices; and optical tweezer arrays, all of which offer distinct capabilities for realizing and probing topological matter. For each class, we highlight representative experimental breakthroughs, the topological models that have been realized, and the advanced detection and characterization techniques employed, emphasizing how these complementary approaches collectively expand the frontier of quantum simulation. We also discuss emerging directions in strongly correlated and nonequilibrium topological phases, and conclude with an outlook on future prospects.

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11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

SingGuard: A Policy-Adaptive Multimodal LLM Guardrail with Dynamic Reasoning

作者:
SingGuard Team↗

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly deployed in consumer, medical, financial, and enterprise applications. This broad deployment expands the safety surface: risks can arise from multimodal question answering, assistant responses, and cross-modal composition, while moderation policies may vary across products, regions, and deployment stages. Most existing guardrails either rely on fixed taxonomies or target only a narrow set of interaction settings, which limits their adaptability when safety rules change at deployment time. We present SingGuard, a policy-adaptive multimodal guardrail model family for safety assessment in multimodal conversations. SingGuard treats the active policy as a runtime input: given natural-language rules, it checks the target content against the active policy rule by rule and predicts both the safety label and the triggered rule. To balance efficiency and interpretability, SingGuard supports fast, hybrid, and slow inference regimes along a fast-to-slow reasoning spectrum, ranging from direct safety judgments to policy-grounded deliberation. We further optimize this behavior with fast–slow decoupled reinforcement learning. We also introduce SingGuard-Bench, a multimodal guardrail benchmark with 56{,}340 examples spanning 80+ fine-grained risk types across multimodal QA, adversarial attack, and dynamic-rule evaluation settings, including cross-modal joint-risk cases where each modality is harmless in isolation but their composition implies unsafe intent. Across six benchmark families (35 datasets), SingGuard achieves state-of-the-art average F1 in every family. Dynamic-rule evaluation further shows improved policy-following accuracy from 0.6465 to 0.7415 under runtime policy shifts. Our code is available at https://github.com/inclusionAI/Sing-Guard.

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12.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Grids Often Outperform Implicit Neural Representations at Compressing Dense Signals

作者:
Namhoon Kim↗Sara Fridovich-Keil↗

Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have recently shown impressive results, but their fundamental capacity, implicit biases, and scaling behavior remain poorly understood. We investigate the performance of diverse INRs across a suite of 2D and 3D real and synthetic signals with varying effective bandwidth, as well as both overfitting and generalization tasks including tomography, super-resolution, and denoising. By stratifying performance according to model size as well as signal type and bandwidth, our results shed light on how different INR and grid representations allocate their capacity. We find that, for many tasks involving dense signals, a simple regularized grid with interpolation trains faster and to higher or comparable quality than any INR with the same number of parameters. We also find limited settings – namely fitting binary signals such as shape contours – where INRs outperform grids, to guide future development and use of INRs towards the most advantageous applications.

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13.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

SIRT7 regulates dosage compensation and safeguards the female X chromosome

作者:
Nicolas G. Simonet↗

Sirtuins are deacetylases implicated in stress responses and longevity in mammals1,2. Although their differential impact on disease for the two sexes has been noted3–7, the underlying reasons are unclear. Here, using Sirt7 as a model in mice, we examine the mechanisms leading to sex differences and find that Sirt7−/− female mice have decreased fitness throughout their lifespan. Notably, SIRT7 preferentially localizes to the sex chromosomes. In female individuals, SIRT7 loss affects X-chromosome inactivation, the first arm of dosage compensation that equalizes X-linked gene expression between males and females8–10. Xist is overexpressed and gene silencing becomes more efficient. However, SIRT7 loss has greatest impact on the active X (Xa) chromosome. The Xa chromosome becomes hyperacetylated at Lys36 of histone H3, structurally disorganized, prone to DNA damage and overexpressed. Increased Xa-chromosome expression leads to genome imbalance and augmented X-chromosome upregulation—the second arm of dosage compensation that balances X-chromosome versus autosomal gene expression. These data reveal an essential crosstalk between sirtuins and the sex chromosomes, with SIRT7 safeguarding X-chromosome integrity and dosage balance with autosomes. We propose that the sex bias in SIRT7 biology can be explained in part by unequal effects on the sex chromosomes. SIRT7 safeguards X-chromosome integrity and dosage balance with autosomes.

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14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

End-to-End Voice Intent Recognition for Spontaneous Human-Drone Interaction with Naive Users

作者:
Allan Henry↗Solange Rossato↗Christian Graff↗Sylvain Huet↗Jose-Ernesto Gomez-Balderas↗

arXiv:2606.24910v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Voice control offers an intuitive alternative to manual drone piloting, yet most existing systems rely on rigid command vocabularies that fail to handle the spontaneous, disfluent speech of naive users. This paper addresses this gap by proposing an End-to-End Spoken Language Understanding architecture for real-time human-drone interaction in French. Our model combines a frozen Self-Supervised Learning acoustic encoder with a lightweight LSTM-based classification head, augmented by a cross-modal knowledge distillation objective that aligns acoustic representations with semantic embeddings from a text teacher, without requiring transcription at inference time. We evaluate our approach on VoiceStick, a novel French corpus of spontaneous speech collected during real teleoperation sessions with 29 nonexpert dyads. On simple voice commands, our best configuration achieves 93% accuracy at 7 ms inference latency, outperforming cascade baselines (79%, 202 ms) with a 29x speedup. On the full spontaneous speech test set, our architecture reaches 82% accuracy, with crossmodal distillation consistently improving robustness across all configurations. These results demonstrate that End-to-End architectures are not only feasible but preferable for spontaneous voice-guided UAV teleoperation, combining semantic robustness, low latency, and calibrated confidence.

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15.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-11

The impact of pre-stroke statin use on baseline corrected infarct volume and collateral perfusion

作者:
Coupland↗K. G↗Toson↗Martin↗Lillicrap↗T. P↗Pinheiro↗Levi↗C. R↗Garcia-Esperon↗Spratt↗N. J↗…

Stroke is a leading cause of disability and mortality worldwide, with ischaemic stroke the most prevalent type. Statins, used for cholesterol management, have demonstrated benefits in reducing stroke risk and improving outcomes in preclinical studies. However, the impact of pre-stroke statin use on stroke outcomes remain inconsistent. In this study, we aim to evaluate whether pre-stroke statin use is associated with greater volume of salvaged tissue and improved cerebral collateral perfusion. A retrospective analysis was conducted using data from 281 patients presenting with acute ischemic stroke to the John Hunter Hospital between May 2015 and May 2020. Patients were grouped based on pre-stroke statin use, and clinical variables, including infarct volume and collateral perfusion, were assessed. The primary outcome was salvage volume derived from baseline perfusion lesion volume minus infarct volume at follow-up. Collateral perfusion was measured by the hypoperfusion volume defined by delay time (DT)>6 seconds divided by the hypoperfusion volume defined by DT >2 seconds. Patients on statins at admission were significantly older and had more comorbidities. No significant association was found between pre-stroke statin use and salvage volume or collateral perfusion after adjusting for covariates. Larger initial infarct core was a significant predictor of salvage volume due to larger salvageable tissue volume at baseline. These findings indicate that pre-morbid statin use is not associated with larger salvage volume or improved cerebral collateral perfusion.

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16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Credibility-Weighted Pricing of Autonomous Vehicle Liability Under Operational Design Domain Shift

作者:
Doyeon Jang↗

arXiv:2606.17451v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Automated Driving System deployments create a foundational ratemaking challenge: sparse experience, shifting operational design domains, and non-stationary risk across software releases. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian credibility framework pooling across cities, software versions, and territories via a learned ODD-similarity kernel, nesting Buhlmann-Straub as a limiting case. Demonstrated on 648 verified-engaged Waymo crashes across four U.S. metros from the NHTSA Standing General Order database against 116 million matched miles, city-aggregate credibility weights are moderate (0.12-0.46), partial pooling decisively outperforms no pooling, and a power analysis shows the learned kernel's advantage becomes detectable at approximately twelve deployed cities.

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17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Flow Matching with In-Context Priors for Out-of-Distribution Brain Dynamics

作者:
Sam Gijsen↗Micha{\l} {\L}ukomski↗Marc-Andr\'e Schulz↗Kerstin Ritter↗

arXiv:2606.11833v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Flow matching and diffusion models enable conditional generation across domains ranging from images to proteins, with recent extensions to out-of-distribution contexts. Yet generative models of neural time series have largely remained restricted to categorical conditioning, precluding compositional and zero-shot generalization. In this work, we propose a per-timestep conditioned diffusion transformer for generating realistic fMRI brain dynamics during unseen cognitive tasks by injecting both compositional language and optional spatial priors in-context. Such zero-shot generation could enable counterfactual neuroscience by supporting in-silico design and evaluation of novel cognitive experiments before empirical validation. Leveraging this model, we evaluate across hundreds of held-out task conditions and characterize predictive performance in relation to the training manifold. From language alone, the model recovers region-specific recruitment across tasks and held-out spatial activation patterns. Spatial priors, when available, complement the text pathway by anchoring generation in regions of task space where language alone degrades, while retaining the compositional structure needed for counterfactual task specification. To our knowledge this is the first generative model of whole-cortex fMRI dynamics for unseen cognitive tasks, advancing counterfactual neuroscience and data-driven experimental design.

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18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

OmniPlan: An Adaptive Framework for Timely and Near-Optimal Network Planning Optimization

作者:
Longlong Zhu↗Jiashuo Yu↗Zedi Chen↗Yuhan Wu↗Zhifan Jiang↗Yuchen Xian↗Yimeng Liu↗Jiajie Su↗Shaopeng Zhou↗Xingyuan Li↗Hongyan Liu↗Xuan Liu↗…

arXiv:2606.18105v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Network planning optimization is a fundamental problem across diverse domains, including transportation systems, communication networks, and power grids. It requires simultaneous optimization of multiple competing objectives under complex constraints. Existing network planning optimization frameworks rely on mixed integer programming (MIP) solvers, heuristics, and deep reinforcement learning (DRL) models to compute planning decisions. However, they lack effective adaptability to diverse and dynamic user intents, thus leading to the trade-off between execution time and optimality. In this paper, we propose OmniPlan, an adaptive framework that achieves both timeliness and near-optimality in network planning optimization. To achieve the adaptability lacking in existing solutions, OmniPlan employs a large language model (LLM)-based interpreter to convert heterogeneous natural-language intents into a unified and quantifiable user-preference vector. Then it employs a mixture-of-experts architecture that integrates MIP solvers, heuristics, and DRL models as specialized experts, where OmniPlan adapts to diverse intents by dynamically selecting timely and near-optimal experts. Finally, it incorporates a DRL-based expert configuration module that fine-tunes optimization objective weights to align planning decisions with user-specific preferences. We evaluate OmniPlan with a representative real-world workload, i.e., distributed machine learning (ML), where we leverage OmniPlan to offload a wide spectrum of ML inference tasks, e.g., decision trees, SVM, naive Bayes, XGBoost, and random forests, onto a network of hardware devices. Our experiments on a real-world testbed indicate that OmniPlan achieves near-optimal and low-execution-time offloading for real-world ML inference tasks, reducing latency by up to 97.8\% and network device resource consumption by up to 11.5\%.

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19.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

ClaimFlow: Tracing the Evolution of Scientific Claims in NLP

作者:
Aniket Pramanick↗Yufang Hou↗Saif M. Mohammad↗Iryna Gurevych↗

Scientific papers advance $claims$ that later work supports, extends, or sometimes refutes. Yet existing methods for citation and claim analysis capture only fragments of this dialogue. In this work, we make these interactions explicit at the level of individual scientific claims. We introduce $\texttt{ClaimFlow}$, a claim-centric view of the NLP literature, built from $1{,}617$ ACL Anthology papers $(1979 - 2025)$ that are manually annotated with $5{,}689$ claims and $4{,}871$ cross-paper claim relations, indicating whether a citing paper $\texttt{supports}$, $\texttt{extends}$, $\texttt{qualifies}$, $\texttt{refutes}$, or references a cited claim as $\texttt{background}$. Building on $\texttt{ClaimFlow}$, we define a new task – $Claim Relation Classification$ – which requires models to infer the scientific stance toward a cited claim from the text and citation context. Evaluating neural models and large language models on this task, we report baseline performance of $0.81$ macro-F1, suggesting that the task is tractable while leaving room for improvement. We then scale this framework to $\sim$$13k$ NLP papers to study claim evolution across decades of NLP research. We show that $63.5\%$ claims are never reused; only $11.1\%$ are ever challenged. Widely propagated claims are more often $reshaped$ through qualification and extension than supported or refuted. Overall, $\texttt{ClaimFlow}$ offers a lens for examining how ideas shift and mature within NLP.

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20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

GEMS: Geometric Constraints Enable Multi-Semantic Superposition in LLMs

作者:
Yu Deng↗

Activation steering controls model behavior by modifying intermediate hidden states at inference time without retraining. Existing methods handle only single-direction injection; when multiple semantic directions are superposed without constraints, the model collapses. We show that this collapse decomposes into two independently acting sources: distributional deviation, where additive perturbations accumulate in norm across layers and drive activations outside the training distribution, and directional interference, where non-orthogonal semantic vectors mutually dampen when superposed. These two sources define the design constraints that any training-free multi-directional intervention must address. As one instantiation of these principles, we propose GEMS, a training-free method that maps each source to a corresponding geometric constraint: norm-preserving weighted superposition and targeted attention-pathway injection for distributional deviation, and real-time orthogonalization for directional interference. On GSM8K, injecting three concurrent non-mathematical directions preserves accuracy at 98% (baseline 92%), while unconstrained addition collapses to 4%; on Wikitext-2, the same injection incurs only 2.2% PPL increase. Component ablation isolates the causal role of each constraint, and layer-level probes confirm that orthogonalized signals survive the FFN pathway and reach the output distribution with semantic specificity. Qualitative steering effects transfer across architectures from 3B to 31B.

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21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

What Uncertainties Do We Need for Dynamical Systems?

作者:
Yusuf Sale↗Christopher B\"ulte↗Felix Czaja↗Joshua Stiller↗Eyke H\"ullermeier↗

arXiv:2606.11988v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has received considerable attention in machine learning research, mainly in the context of supervised learning but also in other settings such as generative modeling. In this paper, we offer a machine learning perspective on uncertainty modeling for dynamical systems, which has been studied much less so far. In particular, we ask: what uncertainties do we need for dynamical systems? We discuss sources of uncertainty, clarify their nature (aleatoric or epistemic), and consider how the objectives of representing and quantifying uncertainty vary across different tasks.

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22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Multi-Agent Systems are Mixtures of Experts: Who Becomes an Influencer?

作者:
Franka Bause↗Jonas Niederle↗Martin Pawelczyk↗Rebekka Burkholz↗

arXiv:2605.25929v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The effectiveness of multi-agent LLM deliberation depends not only on the agents' individual predictions, but also on how they communicate and collaborate. We study this mechanism through the lens of Friedkin-Johnsen (FJ) opinion dynamics, a tractable model for analyzing stubbornness, influence, and opinion change in multi-agent systems that captures empirically observed deliberation patterns. We show that the FJ parameters are input-dependent, turning multi-agent deliberation into a mixture of experts. This perspective implies that multi-agent systems can outperform single agents and static ensembles when routing reflects agent competence. Since competence is latent in practice, we analyze how influence is established through observable proxies: agents' self-assessed confidence, their perceived confidence, and initial alignment with other agents' views.

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23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

Delving into Latent Spectral Biasing of Video VAEs for Superior Diffusability

作者:
Shizhan Liu↗Xinran Deng↗Zhuoyi Yang↗Jiayan Teng↗Xiaotao Gu↗Jie Tang↗

Latent diffusion models pair VAEs with diffusion backbones, and the structure of VAE latents strongly influences the difficulty of diffusion training. However, existing video VAEs typically focus on reconstruction fidelity, overlooking latent structure. We present a statistical analysis of video VAE latent spaces and identify two spectral properties essential for diffusion training: a spatio-temporal frequency spectrum biased toward low frequencies, and a channel-wise eigenspectrum dominated by a few modes. To induce these properties, we propose two lightweight, backbone-agnostic regularizers: Local Correlation Regularization and Latent Masked Reconstruction. Experiments show that our Spectral-Structured VAE (SSVAE) achieves a $3\times$ speedup in text-to-video generation convergence and a 10\% gain in video reward, outperforming strong open-source VAEs. The code is available at https://github.com/zai-org/SSVAE.

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24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Contagion Networks: Evaluator Bias Propagation in Multi-Agent LLM Systems

作者:
Zewen Liu↗

arXiv:2606.20493v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When large language models serve as evaluators in multi-agent systems, their systematic evaluation biases propagate through the agent network. We introduce Contagion Networks, a formal framework for measuring how evaluator biases spread across interacting LLM agents. In a controlled 3-agent experiment using DeepSeek-chat with three distinct evaluator bias profiles (structured, balanced, evidence-based), we measure the Cross-Agent Contagion Matrix Gamma_3 and find that evaluator biases consistently propagate between agents (gamma in [0.157, 0.352]), even within the same underlying model. We identify three propagation regimes governed by the spectral radius rho(Gamma_N), and demonstrate that homogeneous-model agents produce contagion coefficients 3-5x weaker than cross-model coefficients observed in prior work (MM-EPC: gamma approx 0.85-1.3), placing them in the suppression regime. We show that increasing evaluator committee size from k=1 to k=3 reduces effective contagion by 72.4%, providing an actionable mitigation strategy. We release the open-source Contagion Network experimental framework.

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25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Machine Learning and the Random Walk Puzzle: Forecasting the CAD/USD Exchange Rate with Expanding Window Evaluation and SHAP Interpretability

作者:
Louis Agyekum↗Edmund Fosu Agyemang↗Obu-Amoah Ampomah↗Kofi Acheampong↗Emmanuel Boadi↗Priscilla Yaa Amakye↗Fafa Shalom Tchorly↗Enock Adu Bonsu↗Eric Nyarko↗

arXiv:2606.15058v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study examines whether machine learning (ML) models can outperform the naive random walk benchmark in forecasting the monthly USD/CAD exchange rate. Using daily data from the Bank of Canada spanning January 2017 to May 2026, resampled into 113 monthly observations, five ML models are evaluated: linear regression, random forest, gradient boosting, XGBoost, and AdaBoost. These models are benchmarked against the naive random walk model and exponential smoothing with Holt-Winters seasonality (ETS). All models are evaluated using an expanding-window framework to maintain strict out-of-sample integrity, and forecast-accuracy differences are assessed using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. Structural break detection identifies four significant breakpoints in the series, corresponding to the escalation of the US-China trade war in 2018, the COVID-19 economic recovery in 2020, the peak of the Bank of Canada rate-hiking cycle in 2022, and the start of the Bank of Canada rate-cutting cycle in 2024. SHAP, or Shapley Additive Explanations, analysis is applied to interpret the drivers of the best-performing ML model. The results show that the naive random walk model remains a formidable benchmark. Linear regression is the only model that statistically outperforms the naive random walk model, with a DM statistic of 3.0585 and a p value of 0.0071, whereas the ML ensemble models show only marginal differences. Random Forest with an expanding-window framework achieves the lowest MAPE of 1.17 percent among all models except the random walk. SHAP analysis confirms that short-term lags, particularly lag1 and lag2, and recent rolling means dominate predictions, consistent with the near-random-walk behavior of exchange rates.

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