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01.

Nature (Science) 2026-06-09 DOI: HASH:4d3472195e310f21457edbeb48ce48f2

Scientists have a bad case of AI FOMO, <i>Nature</i> poll reveals

作者:

Mohana Basu↗

Almost half of the scientists who responded said that they feel broadly negative towards artificial intelligence, but they think that some tools are better than others. Almost half of the scientists who responded said that they feel broadly negative towards artificial intelligence, but they think that some tools are better than others.

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02.

arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19 DOI: arXiv:2606.19347

How LLMs Fail and Generalize in RTL Coding for Hardware Design?

作者:

Guan-Ting Liu↗Chao-Han Huck Yang↗Chenhui Deng↗Zhongzhi Yu↗Brucek Khailany↗Yu-Chiang Frank Wang↗

Translating sequential programming priors into the parallel temporal logic of hardware design remains a crucial bottleneck for large language models(LLM). To investigate this, we introduce a new error taxonomy grounded in problem solvability, inspired by cognitive theory. Our taxonomy categorizes failures into syntactic, semantic, solvable functional, and unsolvable functional types. Evaluations reveal a strict empirical ceiling on the VerilogEval benchmark, as frontier models plateau at a 90.8% initial pass rate. These plateaus are defined by unsolvable functional errors, exposing persistent knowledge gaps immune to test time compute scaling. Furthermore, we expose a striking surface convergence gap: optimization readily eliminates syntax errors but concurrently exacerbates deeper functional failures. Our findings demonstrate that alignment techniques merely teach models to compile. While repeated sampling strategies can patch solvable errors, register-transfer level(RTL) coding capacity remains strictly bounded by pretraining knowledge. Addressing challenges in the current LLM based hardware generation pipeline requires more studies in model reasoning rather than alignment interventions.

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03.

arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11 DOI: arXiv:2606.11845

Stochastic epidemic model with varying infectivity and waning immunity: the law of large numbers with unbounded infectivity

作者:

Rapha\"el Forien↗\'Etienne Pardoux↗

arXiv:2606.11845v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We revisit the large population limit of our epidemic model with infection age dependent infectivity and progressive immunity waning, under the assumption that the supremum in $t$ of the random infectivity function has a finite expectation, while the previous proofs assumed that this supremum admits a deterministic upper bound.

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04.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24 DOI: arXiv:2507.16696

FISHER: A Foundation Model for Multi-Modal Industrial Signal Comprehensive Representation

作者:

Pingyi Fan↗Anbai Jiang↗Shuwei Zhang↗Xinhu Zheng↗Zhiqiang Lv↗Bing Han↗Wenrui Liang↗Junjie Li↗Wei-Qiang Zhang↗Yanmin Qian↗Xie Chen↗Jia Liu↗…

arXiv:2507.16696v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Industrial signal analysis is hindered by severe data heterogeneity, which we characterize as the M5 problem. Existing solutions rely on specialized models that lack robustness and scalability, while large-scale pre-training has rarely been investigated in this area. In this work, we derive a prioritized roadmap for the M5 problem and propose FISHER, a Foundation model for multi-modal Industrial Signal compreHEnsive Representation. To address the foremost multi-sampling-rate problem, FISHER utilizes a novel sub-band modeling approach that treats sampling rate increments as concatenated sub-band information, enabling the adaptive usage of full signal bandwidth without resampling. FISHER is pre-trained by teacher-student self-distillation over external audio and music data. We also establish the RMIS benchmark, comprising 19 datasets across four modalities. In the experiment, FISHER outperforms 24 state-of-the-art series encoders (up to 2B) with much smaller sizes (up to 16x), showcasing groundbreaking diagnostic accuracy and remarkable versatility. We further demonstrate that 1) seamless adaptation to variable sampling rates is the key to generalization 2) audio and music data provide better temporal variability, which is essential for pre-training. Both FISHER and RMIS are open-sourced.

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05.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18 DOI: arXiv:2606.18323

Reliable Neural-Codec Text-to-Speech by ASR Self-Verification and Distillation: Near-Zero Catastrophic Failures Across Models and Codecs

作者:

Ali Asaria↗Tony Salomone↗Deep Gandhi↗

arXiv:2606.18323v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Open autoregressive neural-codec text-to-speech (TTS) models sound excellent on typical inputs yet suffer stochastic catastrophic failures: on a meaningful fraction of utterances they emit silence, terminate early, or collapse into repetitive or hallucinated content. We show this failure mode is cheap to remove. Under a single format-robust metric (a catastrophic-failure rate via an ASR round-trip), best-of-N ASR self-verification drives failures to near-zero: no observed failures remain by N=2 on a standard corpus (LibriSpeech) and by N=4 on a hard prompt set. This is not an artifact of one model: the reduction replicates across four open codec-TTS systems and three neural codecs (XCodec2, SNAC, Mimi), reaching the near-zero floor by N=2 on three of the four. We then make the fix free at inference time by distilling the self-verified behaviour into the model, which recovers much of the robustness in single-shot decoding, closing ~52-58% of the failure mass on hard inputs at no test-time cost. The distillation gain concentrates where it is needed (hard inputs); on already-reliable prose there is no headroom and no detectable change. A controlled comparison adds a clean negative: offline direct preference optimization (DPO/IPO) does not beat plain supervised distillation, and an online iterative variant is promising but not statistically separable at our evaluation size. We report honestly the one model that resists (a larger Llasa where scale did not obviously help) and a rare-word capability ceiling that no self-distillation method overcomes

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06.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19 DOI: arXiv:2606.19605

FAPO: Fully Autonomous Prompt Optimization of Multi-Step LLM Pipelines

作者:

Paul Kassianik↗Baturay Saglam↗Huaibo Zhao↗Blaine Nelson↗Supriti Vijay↗Aman Priyanshu↗Amin Karbasi↗

arXiv:2606.19605v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-step LLM pipelines fail through interactions among retrieval, reasoning, and formatting steps, so prompt-only optimization can miss bottlenecks in the chain. We present FAPO (Fully Autonomous Prompt Optimization), a framework that lets Claude Code optimize an LLM pipeline inside a standardized codebase. FAPO evaluates a pipeline, inspects intermediate steps, diagnoses failures, proposes scoped changes, and validates variants repeatedly to optimize against a score function. It first tries prompt edits and, only when prompt optimization appears insufficient, changes chain structure within the permitted scope when attribution identifies a structural bottleneck. Across six benchmarks and three task models, FAPO beats the baseline GEPA in 15 of 18 model-benchmark comparisons. In 11 model-benchmark comparisons, FAPO wins with non-overlapping mean $\pm$ trial-standard-deviation ranges, and the mean FAPO-GEPA gain is +14.1 pp. In the six HoVer and IFBench comparisons where prompt-first search escalated to structural changes, FAPO wins all six with a mean gain of +33.8 pp. FAPO also improves performance on security tasks: on CTIBench-RCM, a security CVE-to-CWE task, prompt-only FAPO lifts test accuracy by +4.0 pp on GPT-5, +7.1 pp on Foundation-Sec-8B-Instruct, and +2.0 pp on Foundation-Sec-8B-Reasoning. These results position FAPO as a state-of-the-art pipeline optimization technique for both general-purpose and security-focused tasks.

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07.

arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12 DOI: arXiv:2606.13171

NTS-CoT: Mitigating Hallucinations in LLM-based News Timeline Summarization with Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

作者:

Feng Lyu↗Huiqin Yan↗Sijing Duan↗Hao Wu↗Shuang Gu↗Xue Qiao↗Weixu Zhang↗Haolun Wu↗

The rapid updates of online news make tracking event developments challenging, highlighting the need for timeline summarization (TLS). Hallucinations, where LLM-generated content deviates from source news, still remain a critical issue in LLM-based TLS and are not well studied in existing works. To bridge this gap, we identify two primary types of hallucinations: unfaithful content during news summarization and information omission in date-event summarization. Then, we propose NTS-CoT, a novel framework that leverages Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning to mitigate hallucinations in TLS. The framework consists of three key modules: i) Element-CoT to capture essential news elements for faithful summarization, ii) Date Selection to combine temporal saliency and event prominence for timestamp selection, and iii) Causal-CoT to infer causal relationships and reduce omissions in date-event summarization. Extensive experiments, including quantitative analysis on three TLS benchmarks and human evaluation, demonstrate that NTS-CoT outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, effectively mitigating hallucinations and improving LLM-based TLS performance. Our source code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/NTS-CoT .

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08.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15 DOI: arXiv:2606.14498

A Fixed-Point Neural Operator for Size- and Functional-Transferable Hamiltonian Prediction

作者:

Yunhong Lou↗Xihang Yue↗Xinran Wei↗Tianqi Deng↗Linchao Zhu↗

arXiv:2606.14498v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting the Kohn-Sham Hamiltonian with machine learning can accelerate density functional theory while retaining access to molecular orbitals, energy levels, and electronic-structure observables that energy-only surrogates cannot resolve. Yet element-wise agreement with the converged Hamiltonian, an implicit fixed point of the self-consistent field iteration, does not determine the occupied subspace that governs orbital energies and densities. Here we present HamEvo, a neural operator that learns the single-step self-consistent update and returns the converged Hamiltonian as its fixed point. HamEvo is pre-trained on intermediate self-consistent trajectories and calibrated at equilibrium with density-matrix supervision. Across benchmarks from MD17 to drug-like QMugs, HamEvo lowers Hamiltonian errors by 35-49% over direct-regression and deep-equilibrium baselines, and predicts QMugs HOMO and LUMO energies with mean absolute errors of 0.036 and 0.053 eV, near the 1 kcal/mol chemical-accuracy scale. Few-shot fine-tuning with only 20 reference conformations extends HamEvo to molecules of up to 122 atoms, well beyond the size range covered by pre-training. With thermal molecular-dynamics sampling, HamEvo captures temperature-dependent HOMO-LUMO gap renormalization beyond the harmonic approximation. Inference is up to 242 times faster than conventional DFT.

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09.

medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22 DOI: HASH:bb44de6a401d7ccf28fb0601b05fa944

The Protective Role of Belonging and Socioeconomic Status in Dropout Intent Among Minority Ethnic Students: A Mixed Methods Study

作者:

Vaportzis↗Khan↗George↗K. K↗

Improving minority ethnic student retention is a global higher education priority. This mixed-methods study investigated how institutional belonging and socioeconomic status interact to shape dropout intentions among minority university students in the UK (N = 182). Quantitative results revealed that perceived course difficulty and lower subjective socioeconomic status were the strongest predictors of dropout intent. While the interaction between socioeconomic status and difficulty was non-significant, qualitative accounts showed distinct structural vulnerabilities. Financial strain restricted social integration, turning socioeconomic disparities into campus isolation. Conversely, representative curricula, diverse peer networks, and stable cultural in-groups (e.g., religious affiliations, living in the parental home) functioned as essential psychological buffers against academic exhaustion and alienation. Universities must shift from transactional models to sustained structural equity to protect vulnerable student groups.

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10.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2601.06212

Akasha 2: Hamiltonian State Space Duality and Visual-Language Joint Embedding Predictive Architectur

作者:

Yani Meziani↗

We present Akasha 2, a state-of-the-art multimodal architecture that integrates Hamiltonian State Space Duality (H-SSD) with Visual-Language Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (VL-JEPA). The system leverages the Mamba-3 Selective State Space Model (SSM) augmented by a Sparse Mixture of Hamiltonian Experts (SMoE-HE) that enforces latent physical conservation laws through symplectic integration. For visual synthesis, we introduce Hamiltonian Flow Matching (HFM) and persistent 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS), enabling ultra-low latency (

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11.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2605.09169

Prediction Bottlenecks Don't Discover Causal Structure (But Here's What They Actually Do)

作者:

Ankit Hemant Lade↗Sai Krishna Jasti↗Indar Kumar↗Aman Chadha↗

arXiv:2605.09169v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A Mamba state-space model trained only for next-step prediction appears to recover Granger-causal structure through a simple readout $S = |W_{out} W_{in}|$, with early experiments suggesting the phenomenon generalized across architectures and benefited from interventional data at $p < 10^{-5}$. We package the protocol used to test that claim – standardized synthetic generators (VAR/Lorenz/CauseMe-style), three intervention semantics ($do(X=c)$, soft-noise, random-forcing), edge-provenance cards on three real datasets, and size-matched control arms – as a reusable falsification benchmark, and walk the claim through it in five stages. The method-level claim does not survive: (i) a plain linear bottleneck does as well or better; (ii) tuned Lasso beats the bottleneck on synthetic CauseMe-style benchmarks, and on Lorenz-96 (the only real benchmark with unambiguous ground truth) classical PCMCI and Granger lead a tight cluster in which the bottleneck trails; (iii) the headline intervention advantage is roughly 60% a sample-size confound, and the residual disappears under standard $do(X=c)$ interventions, surviving only under a non-standard random-forcing scheme; (iv) even that residual reproduces, with a larger effect, in classical bivariate Granger – the effect is method-agnostic. What survives is a narrow characterization result; the benchmark is the lasting artifact, and each stage above is one of its control arms.

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12.

arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25 DOI: arXiv:2604.02596

An Empirical Study of Many-Shot In-Context Learning for Machine Translation of Low-Resource Languages

作者:

Yinhan Lu↗Gaganpreet Jhajj↗Chen Zhang↗Anietie Andy↗David Ifeoluwa Adelani↗

In-context learning (ICL) allows large language models (LLMs) to adapt to new tasks from a few examples, making it promising for languages underrepresented in pre-training. Recent work on many-shot ICL suggests that modern LLMs can further benefit from larger ICL examples enabled by their long context windows. However, such gains depend on careful example selection, and the inference cost can be prohibitive for low-resource language communities. In this paper, we present an empirical study of many-shot ICL for machine translation from English into ten truly low-resource languages recently added to FLORES+. We analyze the effects of retrieving more informative examples, using out-of-domain data, and ordering examples by length. Our findings show that many-shot ICL becomes more effective as the number of examples increases. More importantly, we show that BM25-based retrieval substantially improves data efficiency: 50 retrieved examples roughly match 250 many-shot examples, while 250 retrieved examples perform similarly to 1,000 many-shot examples. We further show that ICL provides additional gains on top of fine-tuning.

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13.

arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-24 DOI: arXiv:2606.24465

History estimation in random recursive trees: Pointwise approach via iterated Jordan centralities

作者:

Johannes B\"aumler↗Simon Briend↗Joost Jorritsma↗

arXiv:2606.24465v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the problem of estimating the arrival times of vertices in a uniform random recursive tree from its unlabeled structure. We adopt a pointwise perspective and analyze the distribution of the relative estimation error, and derive tail bounds that are uniform in both the vertex and the tree size. For the ranking induced by Jordan centrality, the probability that the estimate exceeds the true arrival time by a factor $S$ decays on the order of $1/S$, while the probability of underestimating the arrival time by a factor $1/S$ decays exponentially in $S$. We introduce a refined centrality measure whose overestimation tail decays on the order of $(\log S)/S^{2}$, at the cost of a heavier lower tail of order $1/S^{2}$. These results reveal a tradeoff between upper- and lower-tail performance in arrival-time estimation that is invisible to the previously studied risk functional. Nevertheless, the refined centrality measure attains the optimal order of the risk for all its parameter values.

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14.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24 DOI: arXiv:2602.21321

Dynamic Symmetric Point Tracking: Tackling Non-ideal Reference in Analog In-memory Training

作者:

Quan Xiao↗Jindan Li↗Zhaoxian Wu↗Tayfun Gokmen↗Tianyi Chen↗

arXiv:2602.21321v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Analog in-memory computing (AIMC) performs computation directly within resistive crossbar arrays, offering an energy-efficient platform to scale large vision and language models. However, non-ideal analog device properties make the training on AIMC devices challenging. In particular, its update asymmetry can induce a systematic drift of weight updates towards a device-specific symmetric point (SP), which typically does not align with the optimum of the training objective. To mitigate this bias, most existing works assume the SP is known and pre-calibrate it to zero before training by setting the reference point as the SP. Nevertheless, calibrating AIMC devices requires costly pulse updates, and residual calibration error can directly degrade training performance. In this work, we present the first theoretical characterization of the pulse complexity of SP calibration and the resulting estimation error. We further propose a dynamic SP estimation method that tracks the SP during model training, and establishes its convergence guarantees. In addition, we develop an enhanced variant based on chopping and filtering techniques from digital signal processing. Numerical experiments demonstrate both the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method.

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15.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18 DOI: arXiv:2606.18837

Skill-MAS: Evolving Meta-Skill for Automatic Multi-Agent Systems

作者:

Hehai Lin↗Qi Yang↗Chengwei Qin↗

arXiv:2606.18837v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Model (LLM)-based automatic Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) generation has become a crucial frontier for tackling complex tasks. However, existing methods face a dilemma between model capability and experience retention. Inference-time MAS leverages frozen frontier LLMs but repeats identical searches without learning from past experience. Conversely, Training-time MAS internalizes experience via gradient updates but is constrained by the low capability ceiling of smaller models, and is hard to scale to large frontier LLMs. To bridge this gap, we propose Skill-MAS, a novel third path that decouples experience retention from parametric updates by conceptualizing the high-level orchestration capability as an evolvable Meta-Skill. Skill-MAS refines this architectural knowledge through a closed optimization loop: (1) Multi-Trajectory Rollout samples a behavioral distribution for each task under the current Meta-Skill; and (2) Selective Reflection adaptively selects priority tasks and applies hierarchical contrastive analysis to distill systemic experience into generalizable, strategy-level principles. Extensive experiments across four complex benchmarks and four distinct LLMs demonstrate that Skill-MAS not only achieves remarkable performance gains but also maintains a favorable cost-performance trade-off. Further analysis reveals that the evolved Meta-Skills are highly robust and exhibit strong transferability across unseen tasks and different LLMs.

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16.

arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19 DOI: arXiv:2606.20029

A Finite-Volume Scheme for the Continuum Extrapolation of Lattice Step-Scaling in (2+1)D Hamiltonian U(1) Gauge Theory

作者:

Alessio Negro↗Emil Otis Rosanowski↗Lena Funcke↗Timo Jakobs↗Karl Jansen↗Paul Ludwig↗Carsten Urbach↗

arXiv:2606.20029v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a finite-volume scheme to perform controlled continuum extrapolations of the lattice step-scaling function, a key ingredient for determining the running coupling in a Hamiltonian lattice gauge theory in small volumes. As a testbed, we employ a dual Hamiltonian formulation of pure U(1) gauge theory in (2+1) dimensions and an operator basis that remains efficient toward weak coupling. We describe the implementation of static external charges on the spatial lattice and study, using matrix product states, the resulting confining string, from which we extract the static potential and a force-based renormalized coupling. Using the proposed finite-volume scheme, we demonstrate a stable continuum limit of the step-scaling function on the lattice sizes accessible to present Hamiltonian simulations. The method is readily extendable to other gauge groups and dimensions, providing a pathway toward Hamiltonian step-scaling studies in other theories.

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17.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12 DOI: arXiv:2509.22050

BrainPro: Towards Large-scale Brain State-aware EEG Representation Learning

作者:

Yi Ding↗Muyun Jiang↗Weibang Jiang↗Shuailei Zhang↗Xinliang Zhou↗Chenyu Liu↗Shanglin Li↗Yong Li↗Cuntai Guan↗

arXiv:2509.22050v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Electroencephalography (EEG) reflects underlying brain states, whose activities are distributed across brain regions and manifest as spatial patterns on the scalp. Learning these spatially structured, state-related patterns requires consistent spatial representations across datasets. However, existing EEG foundation models are typically based on self-attention, which does not preserve location-specific information and struggles to align signals recorded with different channel configurations. Moreover, brain states contain both shared and state-specific regional activity, suggesting that learning neurophysiologically plausible, state-aware representations can complement the shared representations targeted by current models and improve downstream decoding. To address these limitations, we propose BrainPro, a large EEG model that combines a retrieval-based spatial learning mechanism for cross-layout spatial alignment with a brain state-decoupling module that learns both shared and state-specific representations through parallel encoders and region-aware reconstruction. Pre-trained on a large EEG corpus, BrainPro achieves state-of-the-art performance across nine public BCI datasets spanning emotion, motor, speech, stress, mental disease, and attention tasks. Analyses of spatial filters, channel-drop robustness, and encoder contributions further validate the effectiveness of its spatial alignment and state-aware pathways. These results show that BrainPro achieves improved interpretability of learned spatial patterns and produces representations that benefit diverse EEG decoding tasks.

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18.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19 DOI: arXiv:2606.20233

Cinematic Compositing Using Character-Environment-Harmonized Video Generation Models

作者:

Tianyi Xiang↗Mingming He↗Li Ma↗Jing Liao↗

Cinematic compositing aims to integrate green-screen characters into novel environments while maintaining physical and photometric realism. Previous methods often fail to capture the complex bidirectional interactions between characters and their surroundings, which we characterize as Character-to-Environment (C2E) physical interaction and Environment-to-Character (E2C) lighting harmonization. To address this, we propose an end-to-end video diffusion framework that jointly models C2E and E2C interactions, specifically handling the challenges of interactive props. Our approach introduces a tri-mask-guided architecture with RGB-D joint denoising to ensure physically consistent interactions among the character, props, and environment. We further develop an efficient prior-driven data curation pipeline to construct high-quality relighting pairs without expensive rendering. Finally, a reference-conditioned mechanism enables controllable environment synthesis and precise prop replacement. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework significantly outperforms existing methods in cinematic-quality dynamic video compositing.

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19.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18 DOI: arXiv:2606.18322

SAE Interventions are Unreliable: Post-Intervention Recovery of Suppressed Behavior

作者:

Mingyue Cui↗Linghui Shen↗Xingyi Yang↗

arXiv:2606.18322v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) decompose residual-stream activations into interpretable features. Recent latent-space defenses increasingly rely on these decompositions, assuming that identified "unsafe" SAE features serve as actionable handles for monitoring and intervention. In this paradigm, clamping a specific harmful feature is expected to reliably prevent model misbehavior. However, we show that this success may hide a recoverable failure mode: the clamp may block one visible route to a behavior without eliminating the behavior itself. We formulate this vulnerability as post-intervention recovery, a constrained residual-space optimization problem. Starting from the post-intervention residual state, we optimize residual perturbations to recover the pre-intervention behavior while preserving the post-intervention values of the targeted SAE features. Even under a strong threat model where the intervention remains active throughout optimization and generation, recovery remains possible. To rule out that recovery simply undoes the intervention, we use encoder-orthogonal updates for single-layer interventions and the corresponding feature-map Jacobian in the cross-layer setting. Across TPP, unlearning, IOI, and refusal steering experiments, this stress test reveals recoverable behavior despite successful feature-level intervention. Especially in the safety-critical refusal-steering setting, we achieve a 95.8% recovery rate on valid samples while keeping defended-feature relative drift to 0.131, substantially below suffix-based baselines. A recovery-path attribution analysis further localizes this recovery to the SAE reconstruction residual, the component left unexplained by the SAE. These results expose a gap between feature-level control and behavioral completeness: SAE features can support causal intervention, but controlling them does not guarantee control over the underlying behavior.

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20.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24 DOI: arXiv:2606.24020

You Don't Need to Run Every Eval

作者:

Yuchen Zeng↗Dimitris Papailiopoulos↗

arXiv:2606.24020v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A modern model release reports scores on 40+ benchmarks and the same evaluations were run many more times before it: to track training progress, compare design choices, and select the checkpoint for the release. But do we need to run every eval? We compile a public score matrix of 84 frontier models on 133 benchmarks (2,604 cells, 23.3% filled) and find it is approximately rank-2: a model's scores across all 133 benchmarks are largely determined by just two numbers. We confirm this in two ways: scores hidden from the matrix are best recovered using two factors, and two factors already explain over 90% of the variation among models on the benchmarks they share. Building on this, we design BenchPress: a logit-space rank-2 matrix completion method that recovers held-out scores to within 4.6 points, and a confidence layer that says when each prediction can be trusted. Using BenchPress, we find a subset of five benchmarks {GPQA-D, HLE, Codeforces, MMLU-Pro, ARC-AGI-1} that can recover the rest of a model's public scorecard to within 3.93 points. For a tighter inference budget, a cheaper set {GPQA-D, MMLU-Pro, Aider Polyglot, MATH-500, AIME 2026} can predict a model's evals to within 4.55. We release the score matrix, the BenchPress code, and an interactive tool that predicts any model's score on any benchmark.

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21.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17 DOI: arXiv:2604.22748

Agentic World Modeling: Foundations, Capabilities, Laws, and Beyond

作者:

Meng Chu↗Xuan Billy Zhang↗Kevin Qinghong Lin↗Lingdong Kong↗Jize Zhang↗Teng Tu↗Weijian Ma↗Ziqi Huang↗Senqiao Yang↗Wei Huang↗Yeying Jin↗Zhefan Rao↗…

arXiv:2604.22748v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: As AI systems move from generating text to accomplishing goals through sustained interaction, the ability to model environment dynamics becomes a central bottleneck. Agents that manipulate objects, navigate software, coordinate with others, or design experiments require predictive environment models, yet the term world model carries different meanings across research communities. We introduce a "levels x laws" taxonomy organized along two axes. The first defines three capability levels: L1 Predictor, which learns one-step local transition operators; L2 Simulator, which composes them into multi-step, action-conditioned rollouts that respect domain laws; and L3 Evolver, which autonomously revises its own model when predictions fail against new evidence. The second identifies four governing-law regimes: physical, digital, social, and scientific. These regimes determine what constraints a world model must satisfy and where it is most likely to fail. Using this framework, we synthesize over 400 works and summarize more than 100 representative systems spanning model-based reinforcement learning, video generation, web and GUI agents, multi-agent social simulation, and AI-driven scientific discovery. We analyze methods, failure modes, and evaluation practices across level-regime pairs, propose decision-centric evaluation principles and a minimal reproducible evaluation package, and outline architectural guidance, open problems, and governance challenges. The resulting roadmap connects previously isolated communities and charts a path from passive next-step prediction toward world models that can simulate, and ultimately reshape, the environments in which agents operate. Code and resources are available at: https://github.com/matrix-agent/awesome-agentic-world-modeling.

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22.

arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11 DOI: arXiv:2606.11496

Logical error estimation from syndrome data of surface-code experiments

作者:

Evangelia Takou↗Cesar Benito↗Arian Vezvaee↗Daniel A. Lidar↗Kenneth R. Brown↗

arXiv:2606.11496v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decoders for quantum error correction (QEC) experiments rely on detector error models (DEMs), which encode, for each error, its probability and the detectors and logical observables it flips. Here we show that estimating DEM event probabilities from experimental syndromes is feasible, avoids independent device benchmarking, and produces useful decoder priors for estimating and reducing decoded logical error probabilities. We evaluate our methods using open-source data from surface-code memory experiments performed on Google's Willow chip, and we carry out analogous surface-code experiments on IBM's \texttt{ibm\_miami} processor. Despite the different physical error scales of the Google and IBM devices, in both cases our estimated DEMs improve logical error probabilities relative to baseline device-informed DEMs, typically at the $5\%-10\%$ level and with larger gains in some IBM cases, without additional calibration circuits, decoder fine-tuning, or supervised fitting to logical outcomes.

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23.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18 DOI: arXiv:2512.09185

Learning Patient-Specific Disease Dynamics with Latent Flow Matching for Longitudinal Imaging Generation

作者:

Hao Chen↗Rui Yin↗Yifan Chen↗Qi Chen↗Chao Li↗

Understanding disease progression is a central clinical challenge with direct implications for early diagnosis and personalized treatment. While recent generative approaches have attempted to model progression, key mismatches remain: disease dynamics are inherently continuous and monotonic, yet latent representations are often scattered, lacking semantic structure, and diffusion-based models disrupt continuity with random denoising process. In this work, we propose to treat the disease dynamic as a velocity field and leverage Flow Matching (FM) to align the temporal evolution of patient data. Unlike prior methods, it captures the intrinsic dynamic of disease, making the progression more interpretable. However, a key challenge remains: in latent space, Auto-Encoders (AEs) do not guarantee alignment across patients or correlation with clinical-severity indicators (e.g., age and disease conditions). To address this, we propose to learn patient-specific latent alignment, which enforces patient trajectories to lie along a specific axis, with magnitude increasing monotonically with disease severity. This leads to a consistent and semantically meaningful latent space. Together, we present $\Delta$-LFM, a framework for modeling patient-specific latent progression with flow matching. Across three longitudinal MRI benchmarks, $\Delta$-LFM demonstrates strong empirical performance and, more importantly, offers a new framework for interpreting and visualizing disease dynamics.

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24.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12 DOI: arXiv:2606.13543

NetCause: Counterfactual Learning for Root Cause Analysis in Large-Scale Networks

作者:

Fabien Chraim↗Jian Zhang↗Dominik Janzing↗Xiang Song↗Christos Faloutsos↗John Evans↗

arXiv:2606.13543v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Can a learned model capture how faults propagate through a large-scale network and use this knowledge to causally attribute customer impact to its underlying root cause? Existing root cause analysis techniques often rely on static rules, correlation heuristics, or topology-local reasoning, which struggle to generalize in dynamic environments where faults propagate across complex physical and logical dependencies. We present NetCause, a self-supervised learning-based framework that models network incidents as graph-temporal processes and uses counterfactual simulation to rank candidate root causes. This approach produces an interpretable ranking of root cause hypotheses and integrates naturally with operator-defined mitigation and remediation actions. We train the model on over 1,500 incidents collected over six months from a leading cloud provider's production network and evaluate it on 31 expert-labeled incidents. NetCause consistently improves root cause ranking quality in the regime most relevant to operational decision-making, achieving a 16.1% accuracy improvement over a rule-based heuristic baseline. While training is computationally intensive, inference is lightweight, requiring only seconds of GPU runtime per incident (well below typical telemetry collection latencies).

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25.

Nature (Science) 2026-06-17 DOI: HASH:b14b875cbd86cb1d883a32150ada8739

Revealing competitive interfacial reactions in high-energy Li–S batteries

作者:

Shiyuan Zhou↗

Charge transfer at solid–liquid interfaces plays a critical role in various energy-storage systems1, particularly under dynamically varying reactant concentrations. Deciphering these intricate reaction pathways remains a substantial challenge, notably in lithium–sulfur (Li–S) batteries, in which achieving high energy density requires efficient conversion of highly concentrated lithium polysulfides (LiPSs)2,3. However, the mechanisms governing lithium sulfide (Li2S) deposition and dissolution under lean electrolyte conditions remain poorly understood. Here, using in situ liquid-cell electron microscopy, we directly visualize concentration-driven phase segregation at the electrode–electrolyte interface. Within these high-concentration interfacial layers (HCILs), competitive surface and solution dictate the charge-transfer dynamics and ultimately govern Li2S deposition at different phase boundaries. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations reveal that the aggregation of LiPSs alters molecular geometry, electronic properties and orbital hybridization, collectively facilitating charge transfer through highly concentrated LiPSs clusters. Guided by these insights, we design optimized electrodes that balance interfacial reaction pathways, enabling fast charging (4 C, 26.8 mA cm−2) and achieving high energy densities exceeding 400 Wh kg−1. These findings provide mechanistic understanding of interfacial reactions under practical working conditions and offer a design strategy to advance Li–S batteries. Visualization of concentration-driven phase segregation within high-concentration interfacial layers in the context of high-energy lithium–sulfur batteries using liquid-cell electrochemical transmission electron microscopy reveals competitive interfacial reactions under lean electrolyte conditions at different phase boundaries.

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