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01.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Measurement of reactor neutrino oscillation with the first JUNO data

Neutrino oscillations (see refs. 1,2 and references therein), a quantum effect manifesting at macroscopic scales, are governed by lepton flavour mixing angles and neutrino mass-squared differences3 that are fundamental parameters of particle physics, representing phenomena beyond the Standard Model. Precision measurements of these parameters are essential for testing the completeness of the three-flavour framework, determining the mass ordering of neutrinos and probing possible new physics. The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO)4 is a 20-ktonne liquid-scintillator detector located 52.5 km from multiple reactor cores, designed to resolve the interference pattern of reactor neutrinos with sub-percent precision5,6. Here we report, using the first 59.1 days of data collected since detector completion in August 2025, the first simultaneous high-precision determination of two neutrino oscillation parameters, $${\sin }^{2}{\theta }_{12}=0.3092\,\pm \,0.0087$$ and $$\Delta {m}_{21}^{2}=(7.50\,\pm \,0.12)\times 1{0}^{-5}\,{\mathrm{eV}}^{2}$$ for the normal mass ordering scenario, improving the precision by a factor of 1.6 relative to the combination of all previous measurements. These results advance the basic understanding of neutrinos, validate the design of the detector and indicate the readiness of JUNO for resolving the neutrino mass ordering with a larger dataset. The rapid achievement with a short exposure highlights the potential of JUNO to push the frontiers of precision neutrino physics and paves the way for its broad scientific programme. The first data of the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory deliver high-precision neutrino oscillation parameters, improving measurements and demonstrating readiness to determine neutrino mass ordering.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Fusing Transferred Priors and Physics-based Decomposition for Underwater Image Enhancement

The underwater images are captured within diverse water-medium conditions, leading to complex degradation, including color bias, low contrast, and blur effect. Recently, learning-based methods have demonstrated their potential for underwater image enhancement (UIE). However, most of the previous work focus on the training strategy or network design to make the enhanced result aligned well with the labels in datasets, ignoring that the labels are selected from the enhanced results of previous UIE methods and these pseudo-labels are noisy. Consequently, the performance of their models is not satisfactory to a certain extent. However, collecting the true labels of the underwater images is challenging. In this work, we propose a transfer learning-based UIE that does not require underwater images to have paired noisy or true labels for learning. Instead, the UIE task is first divided into global color correction, haze removal, and background noise suppression following the underwater physics. Then multiple types of prior from other vision tasks are leveraged as cross-domain supervision in each step. In this way, a novel UIE is available via transfer learning, and the physics-aligned UIE decomposition provides theoretical soundness. Qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate that our proposal based on physics and priors fusion achieves SOTA performance in the UIE task and effectively boosts downstream vision tasks, significantly outperforming benchmark methods. Project repo: https://github.com/Haru2022/P2-UIE.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Rule Taxonomy and Evolution in AI IDEs: A Mining and Survey Study

arXiv:2606.12231v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The adoption of AI-powered Integrated Development Environments (AI IDEs) has introduced "Rules" as a novel software artifact, allowing developers to persistently inject project-specific constraints and architectural guidelines into the context of Large Language Models (LLMs). Despite their role in aligning AI behavior with developer intent, the taxonomy, evolution, and practical impact of these rules remain largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we conducted a mixed-methods empirical study on AI IDE rules. By mining 83 open-source projects and extracting 7,310 rules, we established a comprehensive taxonomy comprising 5 primary and 25 secondary categories. We then triangulated these artifacts with survey responses from 99 practitioners. Our analysis identified a contrast between developer priorities and actual configurations: while practitioners rate architectural constraints as highly important, rule files in repositories primarily consist of low-level workflow and code formatting constraints. Furthermore, our analysis of 1,540 rule evolution events revealed that rules are updated frequently. Repository data further indicate that rule evolution is primarily driven by constructive context expansions (29.17%) and enrichments (26.59%). In contrast, surveyed developers reported modifying rules primarily to correct AI errors (77.78%), typically by adding new negative constraints rather than editing existing ones. Finally, an artifact compliance assessment of 160 rule evolution events revealed that updating rules significantly improves the adherence of software artifacts, with the average artifact compliance rate increasing by 22.99% (from 49.14% to 72.13%) following an update. Our study provides empirical insights that can help developers optimize prompting strategies and guide tool builders in designing automated conflict-detection and context-management mechanisms for AI IDEs.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Neural Phase Correlation

Correspondence is fundamentally relational: it seeks the unknown transformation between two observations of a common scene, not the content of either. Yet the dominant learning-based methods do not represent the transformation as a first-class object in the architecture. They encode each image independently and let a learned similarity function or a deep decoder discover the mapping implicitly. Phase correlation is the canonical exception, measuring the inter-image relationship directly in the Fourier domain, but the rigidity of its fixed basis confines it to global translation. We introduce a learned generalization of phase correlation that lifts this restriction by learning the basis on which the transformation decomposes. The same algebraic primitive extends to dense non-rigid deformations and to unitary dynamics. On the ACDC cardiac-MRI benchmark the framework matches or exceeds prior published baselines on both registration directions. On CAMUS echocardiography it matches state-of-the-art without auxiliary scoring or adaptive-smoothness mechanisms. Applied to time-evolved wavefunction pairs of the 1-D quantum harmonic oscillator, the same framework recovers the Hermite-function eigenstates and the quantized energy levels of the unknown Hamiltonian from observation pairs alone.

05.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Food additive exposure associated with reduction in gut microbiota diversity

Consumption of ultra-processed foods is rising globally and has been implicated in inflammation and metabolic dysfunction, yet the impact of specific food additives on the human gut microbiota remains poorly understood. Using dietary data from the Food & You study (approximately 1000 participants in Switzerland), we identified 257 unique additives from 4,119 unique packaged products to quantify each participant's daily additive exposure. Higher exposure to a combination of high intensity sweeteners and sugar polyols, commonly found in low calorie products, was independently associated with reduced gut microbial Shannon diversity (beta = -0.39, p < 0.001), after adjustment for demographics, diet quality, BMI and bowel movement frequency. At a broader level, total additive exposure and fast food consumption were each negatively associated with gut microbial diversity; however, additive exposure remained independently associated and also specifically attenuated the diversity benefits of vegetable rich diets. Furthermore, microbial log ratio signatures linked to additive exposure showed strong negative correlations with Shannon diversity, including emulsifiers and thickeners (r = -0.66) and preservatives and antioxidants (r = -0.56). Integrating additive exposure with healthy dietary components such as HEI, fruits, or vegetables strengthened associations with gut microbial diversity; for example, vegetable linked correlations with Shannon diversity increased from r = 0.52 to r = 0.65 when contrasted against preservative-antioxidant exposure. Concordantly, microbial signatures associated with the sweeteners and sugar polyols additive combination showed depletion of fiber associated commensal taxa, and enrichment of pathways involved in polyol and aromatic compound metabolism. Notably, these associations emerged despite packaged foods representing only approximately 15% of logged dietary intake, underscoring the sensitivity of gut microbial diversity to limited exposure, and demonstrating that without integrating additive and processed-food metrics, one of the largest effect-size phenomena in human gut microbiota diversity would remain undetected.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Distilling Drifting Transformers with Representation Autoencoders

arXiv:2606.15553v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Representation Autoencoders (RAEs) have improved diffusion and flow models by semantically richer latent space owing to the strongly label-wise clustered DINO features in the pretrained encoders. Yet in the distillation stage, the severe anisotropy and large curvatures caused by the rich semantic representations would hinder the convergence and performance, making the trajectory-based distillation unstable. In this work, we argue that the RAE latent space is compatible with distillation via the newly proposed Drifting Models. We first quantitatively study the curvatures and isotropy statistics across different autoencoders, and theoretically reveal that Drifting Model itself is highly likely to fail on extremely scattered spaces like reconstruction-based VAEs. These motivate us to apply the drifting paradigm directly to representation autoencoders. Our proposed method, Drift-RAE, distills pretrained flow models in RAE latent spaces using Drifting, together with insightful modifications that improve training stability by thereotically aligning drifting fields with other frameworks. Regarding the experimental evidences, we achieve 1.77 FID on ImageNet 256 dataset using only 10k distillation steps, surpassing state-of-the-art RAE distillation methods and appearing comparative with the original Drifting Model without requiring an auxiliary MAE feature extractor. The code will be made publicly available.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Self-Driving Datasets: From 20 Million Papers to Nuanced Biomedical Knowledge at Scale

arXiv:2605.07022v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Manually curated biomedical repositories – spanning bioactivity, genomics, and chemistry – are expensive to maintain, lag behind primary literature, and discard experimental context, obscuring nuances needed to assess data correctness and coverage. We show that PubMed itself can be autonomously and cost-effectively turned into structured datasets that are larger, more nuanced, and more accurate than the curated databases they replace. We present three coupled contributions: (1) an LLM-based entity-tagging pipeline, grounded in nine biomedical ontologies, that tags 4.5B entities across 19 categories in a 22.5M-paper, 2.5T-token PubMed corpus; (2) hybrid sparse-dense retrieval supporting entity-filtered semantic queries over the tagged corpus; and (3) Starling, a multi-agent deep research system that, given only a natural-language task description, designs precision- and recall-targeted retrieval filters, induces an extraction schema, and emits structured records with nuance-rich fields and supporting passages. Across six tasks – blood-brain barrier permeability, oral bioavailability, acute toxicity (LD50), gene-disease associations, protein subcellular localization, and chemical reactions – Starling produces ~6.3M records (91K-3M per task); several are, to our knowledge, the largest public datasets for their property. Frontier-model rejection of our extractions is 0.6-7.7% across tasks, far below error rates we measure on widely used curated counterparts (e.g., 16.5% on BBB_Martins, 7.3% on Bioavailability_Ma). Beyond scale and accuracy, the supporting passages carry nuance tabular databases discard – e.g., oral bioavailability may depend on fed vs. fasted state. Together, the corpus, retrieval, and agent establish a foundation for AI-driven therapeutic design. Code and datasets: https://github.com/starling-labs/starling.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Mapping molecular polariton transport via pump-probe microscopy

arXiv:2504.15501v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We demonstrate how the transport properties of molecular polaritons in optical cavities can be extracted from a microscopic modeling of pump-probe spectroscopy. Our approach combines a mean-field treatment of the light-matter Hamiltonian with a perturbative expansion of both light and matter components, along with spatial coarse-graining. This approach extends semiclassical cavity spectroscopy to multimode light-matter interactions, providing full access to spatially resolved transient spectra. By simulating a microscopy experiment with counter-propagating pump and probe pulses, we compute the differential transmission and show how molecular dephasing and persistent dark exciton populations drive sub-group-velocity transport of the root-mean-square displacement. We analyze transport across the polariton dispersion, showing how velocity renormalization correlates with excitonic weight, consistent with experimental observations, and further its dependence on the rate of molecular dephasing. Our results highlight the need to consider measured spectroscopic observables when characterizing transport in polaritonic systems.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Learning Policy from a Single Trajectory in Average-Reward Markov Decision Process

arXiv:2606.16729v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While there is an extensive body of work characterizing the sample complexity of discounted cumulative-reward MDPs, finite sample analyses for average-reward MDPs have been limited, and most existing works rely on restrictive assumptions such as ergodicity or access to a generative model. In this work, we establish the first finite sample complexity guarantees from a single trajectory for weakly communicating average-reward MDPs. To this end, we study the dynamics of a single trajectory in weakly communicating MDPs and based on this analysis, we develop novel model-free methods. Notably, our value-based and policy-based methods provide finite sample complexity guarantees of $\widetilde{O}(1/\varepsilon^2)$ and $\widetilde{O}(1/\varepsilon^4)$ from a single trajectory in weakly communicating MDPs, respectively. Furthermore, we introduce the first model-free method that requires no prior knowledge of problem-dependent quantities for communicating MDPs.

11.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

Power Partitions and Hayman Functions

arXiv:2602.18575v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We prove, within the probabilistic framework of Khinchin families, that the generating function $P_k$ of partitions into $k$-th powers is strongly Gaussian in the sense of Báez-Duarte, and even further that it is a Hayman function. Thus the Hardy–Ramanujan asymptotic formula for the number $p_k(n)$ of partitions of $n$ into $k$-th powers which reads \[ p_k(n) \sim \frac{\alpha_k}{n^{(3k+1)/(2k+2)}} \exp\!\Big(\beta_k\, n^{1/(k+1)}\Big), \qquad n\to\infty, \] where $\alpha_k$ and~$\beta_k$ are explicit constants depending only on $k$, follows directly from Hayman's asymptotic formula for strongly Gaussian power series. The proof of strong Gaussianity of $P_k$ combines a Gaussianity criterion for Khinchin families with certain bounds of Tenenbaum, Wu and Li on the generating function; the asymptotic formula is recovered by computing asymptotic approximations of the mean and variance of the associated family. Analogous results are presented for the generating function $Q_k$ of partitions into distinct $k$-th powers.

12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-25

Controlling radiative dynamics of a giant $\Lambda$-type atom via interference induced by the vacuum of a waveguide

arXiv:2606.25587v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We investigate the dynamics of a $\Lambda$-type giant atom (GA) whose both transition coupled to the guided modes of a one-dimensional (1D) waveguide at two spatially separated points with the GA initially excited and the electromagnetic (EM) modes of waveguide in vacuum. The spontaneous emission properties of this GA is investigated by solving the delay-differential equation for the amplitude of the 3GA in its excited state. Signatures of non-Markovian behavior is manifested in a population trapping in the excited state of the GA in the regime where the distance $d$ of the coupling points is smaller or comparable to the coherent length $L$ characterizing the width of the emitted wave packet. And an exact Markovian dynamics is also found when $d\geq L$ via the inference by adjusting the energy spacing and the inherent time delay besides the complex phases in the atom-light coupling, matching the behavior of a small atom coupled to a waveguide.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

The Token Not Taken: Sampling, State, and the Stochasticity of AI Agents

arXiv:2606.08998v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Agentic AI systems can behave differently across runs: the same request may produce a different plan, a different tool call, a different code edit, or a different final answer. Such variability arises from several layers that are often conflated. At the core of many current agents is a foundation model, a large pretrained model adaptable to many downstream tasks, embedded in an orchestration loop that plans, calls tools, observes results, and updates state. One explicit intrinsic source of variability in such systems is token generation: the model computes scores over possible next tokens, the scores are converted into probabilities, and a decoder may sample tokens using a pseudo-random number generator. A small sampled token difference can then propagate upward into a different tool call, code path, search query, or agent state. Other sources of variability are extrinsic to token sampling, including changing environments, live data, serving infrastructure, batch effects, and numerical details. By separating these layers, this tutorial clarifies what it means to call agentic AI systems stochastic, when such variability can be reproduced under matched conditions, and why deterministic execution need not imply identical behavior in deployed settings.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Review of Machine Learning Models for Solar Energetic Particle Prediction

arXiv:2606.19539v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Solar energetic particle (SEP) events have attracted increasing attention due to their significant radiation hazards for aviation, spacecraft electronics, and human missions beyond Earth's magnetosphere. From a scientific perspective, SEP events are intriguing because they arise from a set of physical processes extending from the solar surface and corona through the heliosphere, offering insight into particle acceleration and transport mechanisms that are widely applicable across astrophysics. Therefore, advancing our ability to understand and predict SEP events is essential both for deepening our knowledge of such mechanisms and for safeguarding space technologies and exploration. Traditionally, researchers have modeled SEPs using physics-based simulations and empirical methods. More recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a new tool for understanding and predicting SEP events. The purpose of this manuscript is to review the currently available ML models for SEP prediction, identify the datasets used for training, compare their architectures, inputs, and outputs, and, based on these insights, outline good practices and recommendations for future research.

15.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Structural variant discovery and diagnostic impact in rare diseases from short-read and long-read sequencing

Rare diseases collectively affect 1 in 10 individuals, yet current genetic testing fails to identify a causal variant for most cases. At present, cytogenetic methods and/or sequencing approaches such as exome (ES) or short-read genome sequencing (srGS) represent the state-of-the-art for comprehensive clinical discovery of sequence and structural variants (SVs), including copy number variants, balanced SVs, complex SVs, and tandem repeats (TRs). Recently, long-read genome sequencing (lrGS), coupled with multiomics data, has presented great promise to resolve variation in genomic regions recalcitrant to characterization by srGS such as highly repetitive simple repeat sequences and segmental duplications. However, there are few guidelines to enable clinical interpretation of genetic variation in these highly repetitive genomic regions, and the enthusiasm of the field in adopting lrGS has made it difficult to assess the true added diagnostic yield of this technology due to widely variable and inconsistently applied analytic pipelines and variable degrees of pre-screening by ES or srGS. Here, we investigated the contribution of SVs to rare diseases using srGS as a front-line strategy when paired with highly sensitive SV discovery and evaluate the added diagnostic yield of incorporating lrGS for a subset of cases. Our srGS analysis encompassed 1,462 families (3,450 individuals) recruited through the Broad Institute Center for Mendelian Genetics and the Genomics Research to Elucidate the Genetics of Rare Diseases (GREGoR) programs. Diagnostic SVs were identified in 5.4% of cases (79/1,462), of which 80% were uniquely detectable by srGS compared to standard cytogenetic techniques. For 96 families (including 10 families with a heterozygous variant observed in a known recessive gene of clinical relevance), we performed lrGS with methylation profiling, as well as long-read transcriptomic analyses in a subset of 20 trios. Analyses with lrGS yielded over 25,000 SVs per genome, 63% of which were not captured by srGS, along with an additional ~200 rare SNV/indels per genome not previously captured and 12 differentially methylated regions per genome. Among these, we identified only one diagnostic variant not interpreted by srGS, an apparently mosaic de novo SNV in CASK that was absent in the srGS callset due to allelic imbalance. No new diagnoses were supported by long-read transcriptomics or episignatures. In this well characterized rare disease cohort, the added diagnostic yield was thus 1.04% (1/96 families). Following a systematic literature review of prior lrGS studies, we find that most reported diagnoses were detectable by srGS and that our added diagnostic yield is consistent with those prior studies. These studies emphasize the significant impact of comprehensive SV discovery in rare disease cases and further demonstrate the power for increased discovery of novel genomic variation and episignatures from lrGS. Nonetheless, they also serve to temper expectations of dramatic diagnostic advances in rare disease patients until there is more extensive annotation of the functional and clinical impact of all coding and noncoding variation uniquely accessible to lrGS with extensive reference databases spanning highly repetitive genomic sequencing that could be enabled by this transformative technology.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Is It You or Your Environment? A Bayesian Inference Framework for Genomically-Anchored Personalized Physiological Interpretation

arXiv:2606.13556v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Personalized health AI systems face a fundamental cold-start problem: machine learning models for physiological interpretation require weeks of individual behavioral data before they can distinguish constitutional variation from environmentally driven deviation. We propose a solution grounded in causal inference and Bayesian prior design. An individual's genomic profile serves as an exogenous genetic anchor – a domain-informed, personalized prior that is fixed at conception, immune to reverse causation, and available before a single behavioral observation is collected. The anchor initializes a Bayesian belief state over an individual's physiological set point G-hat = mu + sum(beta_i * g_i), where beta_i are GWAS-derived effect sizes and g_i are risk-allele counts. Each incoming physiological measurement P produces a non-constitutional deviation delta = P - G-hat that separates the signal attributable to environment and state from the constitutionally fixed baseline. As behavioral data accrue, the prior decays according to G-hat_t = w(t)*G-hat_genomic + [1-w(t)]*P-bar_t, transitioning from genome-dominated to empirical-baseline-dominated inference. The same observed HRV of 55 ms generates a suppression hypothesis for a person whose prior predicts 80 ms, and an enhancement hypothesis for a person whose prior predicts 30 ms – a reversal impossible without a personalized anchor. We develop this architecture across six physiological domains, grading genomic priors by evidence strength, distinguishing robustly replicated anchors (FTO, FADS1/2, FKBP5) from contested candidate genes (SLC6A4, MAOA, DRD2). We address the inference boundary between association, Mendelian randomization, and individual token causation, and define four constraints for deployment: evidence-graded priors, dynamic decay, ancestry-matched effect sizes, and attribution rather than deterministic output.

17.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

Lehner's operator norm formulas, semidefinite programming, and spiked matrix models

arXiv:2606.14687v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Lehner (1999) derived elegant formulas for the operator norm $\|\mathfrak{X}\|$ of operators of the form $\mathfrak{X} = \mathbf{A}_0 \otimes \mathfrak{1} + \sum_{i = 1}^n \mathbf{A}_i \otimes \mathfrak{m}_i$, also easily generalized to the spectral edge $\lambda_{\max}(\mathfrak{X})$, in terms of nonlinear optimization problems over positive definite matrices. Here the $\mathbf{A}_i$ are finite-dimensional Hermitian matrices, the $\mathfrak{m}_i$ are either free semicircular or free Rademacher families of operators, and $\mathfrak{1}$ is the identity operator. We first show that both of Lehner's nonlinear optimizations can be rewritten as linear semidefinite programs (SDPs), even in the Rademacher case where Lehner's optimization is not itself convex. We give the primal and dual forms of these SDPs, derive the complementary slackness relations and consequences thereof, and propose that the SDPs are more stable and accurate than the iterative numerical scheme proposed in Lehner's original work. We then apply the SDPs from the semicircular case to spiked matrix models, studied recently via Lehner's formula by Bandeira, Cipolloni, Schröder, and van Handel (2024). We give a new proof of the Baik–Ben Arous–Péché (BBP) transition they establish in models with isotropic (but possibly correlated) Gaussian noise by constructing feasible variables for the associated primal and dual SDPs. Combining our construction with a sensitivity interpretation of optimal dual variables, we study the fluctuations of leading eigenvectors of such models. We conjecture and give numerical evidence that these fluctuations are Gaussian but anisotropic and non-universal, and that their covariance may be computed in terms of the optimizer of the dual of Lehner's formula, which in turn is approximately the leading eigenmatrix of a completely positive operator associated to the covariance of the noise model.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

DecoSearch: Complexity-Aware Routing and Plan-Level Repair for Text-to-SQL

arXiv:2606.17821v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in translating natural language to SQL, yet existing methods still falter on complex queries requiring multi-step, data-aware reasoning. We introduce DecoSearch, a training-free framework that addresses this by routing each query to the appropriate level of reasoning effort. A lightweight Schema Selector first prunes the full database schema to the relevant tables and columns. An LLM Judger then decides whether the question requires decomposition: straightforward questions follow a direct generation path and complex ones are escalated to a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) of atomic sub-questions, each solved by a targeted SQL generation step. A RAG component grounds the decomposer with semantically similar training examples, and a Topology Refiner restructures the reasoning plan when execution failures signal a flawed decomposition rather than a fixable SQL error. DecoSearch achieves 70.53% execution accuracy on BIRD and 88.31% on Spider with a DeepSeek backbone, surpassing all training-free baselines while consuming an order of magnitude fewer tokens than competing methods. It also functions as a model-agnostic wrapper, consistently improving fine-tuned SQL generation backbones without any modification to the pipeline.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Tabular Foundation Models for Clinical Survival Analysis via Survival-Aware Adaptation

arXiv:2606.12006v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting time-to-event outcomes such as mortality is a fundamental task in clinical decision-making, commonly addressed through survival analysis. While classical statistical and deep learning approaches have been widely studied, they typically require task-specific training and sufficient labeled data. Recent advances in tabular foundation models offer a new paradigm by learning general-purpose representations for structured data. However, their applicability to censored time-to-event prediction in clinical settings remains underexplored, as typical applications are restricted to discrete classification rather than survival analysis tasks. In this work, we propose a lightweight adaptation approach for applying tabular foundation models to clinical survival analysis by directly training a survival-aware head on top of the pretrained representations. We study representative architectures, including TabPFN, TabDPT, and TabICL, and adapt them using a multi-task logistic regression (MTLR) head to model right-censored time-to-event outcomes. We evaluate this approach on a diverse set of public survival benchmarks and two large-scale ICU cohorts, MIMIC-IV and eICU. Our results show that this transfer learning approach achieves competitive or superior performance compared to strong baselines. On MIMIC-IV, TabDPT-FT-MTLR reaches a C-index of 0.856, corresponding to a relative improvement of +1.4% over the best non-FM baseline (DeepSurv, 0.844) and +6.7% over the best zero-shot model (0.802). On eICU, TabICL-FT-MTLR achieves 0.797, yielding gains of +1.7% (DeepSurv, 0.784) and +6.4% (0.749), respectively. These findings highlight the importance of combining pretrained tabular representations with survival-aware objectives and suggest that tabular foundation models provide a practical and effective alternative for clinical survival prediction.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

A Judge-Aware Ranking Framework for Evaluating Large Language Models without Ground Truth

arXiv:2601.21817v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Evaluating large language models (LLMs) on open-ended tasks without ground-truth labels is increasingly done via the LLM-as-a-judge paradigm. A critical but under-modeled issue is that judge LLMs differ substantially in reliability; treating all judges equally can yield biased leaderboards and misleading uncertainty estimates. More data can make evaluation more confidently wrong under misspecified aggregation. We propose a judge-aware ranking framework that extends the Bradley-Terry-Luce model by introducing judge-specific discrimination parameters, jointly estimating latent model quality and judge reliability from pairwise comparisons without reference labels. We establish identifiability up to natural normalizations and prove consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator, enabling confidence intervals for score differences and rank comparisons. Across multiple public benchmarks and a newly collected dataset, our method improves agreement with human preferences, achieves higher data efficiency than unweighted baselines, and produces calibrated uncertainty quantification for LLM rankings.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Recursive Joint Simulation in Games

arXiv:2402.08128v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Game-theoretic dynamics between AI agents could differ from traditional human-human interactions in various ways. One such difference is that it may be possible to accurately simulate an AI agent, for example because its source code is known. Such an agent would then be fundamentally uncertain whether it is in the real world or in a simulation. Our aim is to explore ways of leveraging this possibility to achieve more cooperative outcomes in strategic settings. In this paper, we study an interaction between AI agents where the agents run a recursive joint simulation. That is, the agents first jointly observe a simulation of the situation they face. This simulation in turn recursively includes additional simulations (with a small chance of failure, to avoid infinite recursion), and the results of all these nested simulations are observed before an action is chosen. We show that the resulting interaction is strategically equivalent to an infinitely repeated version of the original game, allowing a direct transfer of existing results such as the various folk theorems. As evidence that the equivalence is robust, we show that it holds even when we relax some of the assumptions and that it also holds ``from the inside'' – meaning, for an agent that finds itself inside the game and has self-locating uncertainty.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

How Modular Is a Frontier Mixture-of-Experts? A Pre-registered Causal Test in Which Apparent Expert Modularity Mostly Dissolves

arXiv:2606.25092v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models route each token to a few of many experts, inviting the hypothesis that experts form functional modules tied to capabilities or languages. We test this causally on Command A+, a frontier open-weights MoE (218B total / 25B active; 128 experts, 8 active, +1 shared). We build a routing-mass atlas, pre-register six family-to-axis hypotheses before any intervention, and ablate each family at inference time against a size-matched random-expert null, measuring whether it selectively breaks its own axis (worst off-target effect at most one third of on-target). Crucially, we test the same families under four metrics and a held-out, independent-corpus run with bootstrap confidence intervals. Our finding is cautionary: robust functional modularity is rare and measurement-dependent. Of six pre-registered families, only one, the Arabic-language family, is a clean selective module that survives an independent corpus and a conservative statistical bar (1/6; a more permissive pre-registered point rule admits 3/6, but that count is threshold-sensitive). Every other family has a real causal effect yet fails selectivity, and its apparent modularity flips with the measurement: with the corpus, the metric, and the statistical bar. A positive control on Qwen3-30B-A3B recovers its published disjoint structure, confirming the method detects modularity when present. The verdict reproduces on the un-quantized BF16 model, ruling out a 4-bit quantization artifact. We conclude that ablation-based modularity verdicts are not safe unless the corpus, metric, and statistical bar are controlled. We release the atlas and ablation data.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Contextual Invertible World Models: A Neuro-Symbolic Agentic Framework for Colorectal Cancer Drug Response

arXiv:2603.02274v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Precision oncology is currently limited by the small-N, large-P paradox, where high-dimensional genomic data is abundant but pharmacological response samples are sparse. While deep learning achieves predictive accuracy, it frequently fails to provide the mechanistic clarity required for clinical adoption. We present the Contextual Invertible World Model (CIWM), a Neuro-Symbolic Agentic Framework that bridges this gap by integrating a quantitative machine learning emulator with a Large Language Model reasoning layer. Utilising a stringently curated, high-fidelity data engineering pipeline on the Sanger GDSC dataset (\( N=83 \)), we isolate true biological signals from in vitro artifacts to establish a rigorous baseline predictive correlation for complex transcriptomics (\( r=0.268 \)). Through Inverse Reasoning, we perform in silico CRISPR perturbations across the colorectal landscape. The framework autonomously overturns classical mechanistic assumptions, identifying a hierarchical dominance of mutant KRAS over the APC/Wnt-axis in driving 5-fluorouracil resistance (\( \Delta=-0.0469 \)) via a "KRAS Shield" mapped to MAPK/PI3K networks. Furthermore, the agentic layer identified a "PIK3CA Paradox", revealing that repairing PIK3CA inadvertently increases chemoresistance (\( \Delta=+0.0085 \)) by triggering a compensatory feedback loop that hyperactivates the dominant MAPK survival pathway.

24.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Cognitive and Neuroimaging Biomarker Intra-Individual Variability in Alzheimer's Disease

Background Greater cognitive intra-individual variability (IIV) reflects increased heterogeneous performance across cognitive domains and has been linked to a higher risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, it remains unclear whether cognitive IIV is linked to heterogeneous dispersion of regional AD pathology. Hence, we aimed to examine the association between cognitive IIV and AD neuroimaging biomarker IIV. Methods This study included participants with normal cognition (CN) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Cognitive IIV was computed as the within-person standard deviation of five domain-specific neuropsychological test z-scores. Four neuroimaging biomarker IIV metrics were similarly derived using regional amyloid-{beta} (n = 1,021), tau (n = 719), cortical thickness (n = 2,148), and combined amyloid-tau-neurodegeneration (ATN, n = 258). Associations between cognitive IIV and each biomarker IIV were evaluated using linear regression models, adjusted for relevant covariates. Results Higher cognitive IIV was associated with greater biomarker IIV across amyloid-{beta} ({beta} = 0.039, SE = 0.014, p = .006), tau ({beta} = 0.196, SE = 0.033, p < .001), cortical thinning ({beta} = 0.036, SE = 0.008, p < .001), and ATN ({beta} = 0.176, SE = 0.043, p < .001). Interaction analyses revealed that the associations of cognitive IIV with tau IIV, cortical thickness IIV, and ATN IIV were stronger in MCI than CN individuals. Significant interactions between cognitive IIV and biomarker positivity status showed that the effect with amyloid-{beta} IIV was attenuated in A- ({beta} = 0.004, SE = 0.014, p = .78) but that the effect with tau IIV remained robust even in T- individuals ({beta} = 0.088, SE = 0.022, p < .001). Conclusion Elevated cognitive IIV is associated with greater heterogeneity in cortical dispersion of AD-related pathology, particularly in prodromal AD and in the presence of abnormal pathology. As a novel measure that captures variation in topographical scattering of AD pathological burden across the cortex, AD biomarker IIV may offer research and clinical utility beyond evaluating absolute biomarker load or thresholds.

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medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Repeat expansions in Parkinson's disease and parkinsonism across ancestries: insights from a global genetic cohort

Expanded short tandem repeats contribute to a broad spectrum of neurodegenerative diseases, yet their roles in Parkinson's disease (PD) and parkinsonism remain incompletely characterized, especially across diverse ancestries. We analyzed short-read whole-genome (WGS) and clinical exome sequencing (CES) data from 38,365 individuals (28,861 WGS; 9,504 CES), encompassing 23,242 patients with PD, 4,729 patients with atypical parkinsonism and 10,394 healthy controls from 11 genetic ancestries. To determine carrier frequencies and characterize repeat structures across diverse ancestries, we genotyped 12 established pathogenic loci where normal, intermediate, and pathogenic alleles can be reliably differentiated using short-read sequencing data. Additionally, we conducted threshold-based associations to determine the minimum threshold associated with increased PD risk in 15,995 individuals (8,591 PD, 7,404 controls) of European ancestry. Pathogenic repeat expansions were detected in 62 patients (56 PD and 6 atypical parkinsonism) and 5 controls across seven loci (AR, ATXN1, ATXN2, ATXN3, CACNA1A, HTT and THAP11), spanning seven ancestries. Among these, ATXN2 expansions were the most frequently observed in PD and were present in African, East Asian, European and Middle Eastern ancestries. Additionally, intermediate ATXN2 repeat expansions exhibited a strong, length-dependent association with PD risk in the European population, with individuals with [&ge;]32 repeats having a more than four-fold increased risk (odds ratio 4.25, 95% confidence interval 1.80-12.05). Overall, >92% of expanded alleles harbor CAA interruptions within the CAG tract. Pathogenic expansions at other loci, such as ATXN3 and THAP11, showed more ancestry-specific distributions. Clinically, individuals with pathogenic ATXN2 and ATXN3 expansions most often presented with typical PD features but frequently showed earlier disease onset and a strong family history of PD. This large-scale, multi-ancestry study comprehensively maps the genetic landscape of pathogenic and intermediate repeat expansions in PD. Our findings confirm a length- and structure-dependent risk association for ATXN2 with PD in the European population, and highlight the pleiotropic effects of repeat expansions across the parkinsonian spectrum.