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01.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Real-Time Voice AI Hears but Does Not Listen

Speech conveys information through both words and vocal delivery. We evaluate four leading production realtime voice systems-OpenAI's GPT Realtime 2, Google's Gemini 3.1 Flash Live, and Alibaba's Qwen3.5 Omni Plus and Omni Flash-on tasks where the words and the delivery patterns both convey meaningful information. Across three consequential scenarios, all four systems act on the words rather than the voice. They end calls with crying callers who insist nothing is wrong, approve wire transfers authorized in frightened voices, and enroll callers whose agreement is clearly sarcastic. Surprisingly, this is often not a failure of perception. When asked directly, three of the four systems reliably identify the distress, fear, or sarcasm they later ignore when making decisions. We observe a similar pattern when these realtime voice systems estimate accent and age, as their responses frequently follow the biases of the words rather than the acoustic properties of the speaker. We term this disconnect between perception and action the emotional intelligence gap of voice AI. Prompting systems to explicitly attend to vocal delivery improves performance only partially and inconsistently. Our findings show that current realtime voice AI systems often behave as if speech had been reduced to a transcript, suggesting that they should be used with caution in settings where the tone and emotion of delivery convey important information.

02.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Development of a Novel Risk Prediction Model for Rheumatoid Arthritis-Associated Interstitial Lung Disease (RA-ILD): A Longitudinal Study

Background: Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is one of the most common and potentially most devastating extra-articular complication of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. However, reliable tools for the early identification of ILD in patients with RA remain limited. This study aimed to identify plasma protein biomarkers of RA-ILD and develop an interpretable machine learning model for risk prediction using data from the UK Biobank. Methods: We first evaluated the association between baseline RA and the risk of incident ILD in the UK Biobank using Cox proportional hazards models. Mendelian randomization analysis was then performed to investigate the potential causal relationship between RA and ILD. Finally, we analyzed 2,920 plasma proteins measured using the Olink platform in 781 eligible RA patients. Proteins associated with ILD risk were identified using Cox proportional hazards models and subsequently used to construct eight machine learning models. Model performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and decision curve analysis. The best-performing model was further interpreted using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) to evaluate feature importance. Results: Compared with participants without RA, Patients with baseline RA had a significantly higher risk of developing ILD (Hazard ratio: 4.425, 95% CI: 3.549,5.518). The MR supported a potential causal association between RA and ILD (Odds ratio: 1.227, 95% CI: 1.121,1.343). Among the eight machine learning models, the CatBoost model showed the best performance, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.884 (95% CI: 0.773,0.996). The SHAP analysis identified LAG3, NPC2, and LAMP3 are the three most important plasma protein predictors of ILD development in patients with RA. Conclusion: Plasma proteomics combined with machine learning may provide a promising approach for identifying biomarkers and predicting ILD risk in patients with RA. LAG3, NPC2, and LAMP3 may serve as candidate biomarkers for RA-ILD and warrant further validation. Keywords: Rheumatoid arthritis, Interstitial lung disease, Mendelian randomization, Machine learning, Plasma proteins.

03.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Initial-state-dependent dephasing effect in non-Hermitian Su-Schrieffer-Heeger models

arXiv:2606.24185v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Understanding the dynamical evolution of non-Hermitian systems under extra external dissipation is essential. Dephasing, a major realistic dissipation, is conventionally considered detrimental to information processing. However, its impact on non-Hermitian systems remains largely unexplored. Here, we focus on finite-sized non-Hermitian Su-Schrieffer-Heeger (SSH) lattice models with alternating gain and loss in real space and examine the dynamical evolution of the trace distance under pure dephasing. By tuning system parameters, this model supports phases with either parity-time or anti-parity-time symmetries, enabling us to explore the interplay between dephasing and different non-Hermitian symmetries. While the trace distance exhibits distinct dynamical behaviors across the different phases in the absence of dephasing, its response to dephasing is largely symmetry-independent but instead initial-state dependent. By varying initial states, we observe that increasing the dephasing strength can either merely accelerate the decay of the trace distance or stabilize it. Interestingly, we reveal two kinds of dephasing-induced stabilization that differ in the strong dephasing limit: a partial stabilization, where the trace distance approaches a finite value smaller than its initial value in the long-time limit, and a complete stabilization, where the trace distance remains at its initial value throughout the entire evolution. By analyzing the equation of motion, we attribute the initial-state dependent dephasing effect to the alternating gain and loss in the system and confirm its absence in Hermitian counterparts. Furthermore, in the anti-parity-time symmetry unbroken phase, we identify a continuous suppression-upon increasing the dephasing strength-of the otherwise exponential decay of the trace distance seen in the absence of dephasing.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

RQUL-UIE: Revitalizing Quality-Unstable Labels for Underwater Image Enhancement via In-Dataset Self-Supervision

Underwater Image Enhancement (UIE) is essential for mitigating degradations caused by water medium. Although learning-based methods have advanced significantly, most rely on paired datasets with unstable label quality, which bottlenecks model performance. This paper proposes a diffusion-based, in-dataset self-supervised learning strategy designed to exploit the quality distribution of training labels. Specifically, we evaluate label quality via semantic perception embeddings from a pre-trained diffusion model in a training-free manner. These quality scores are subsequently quantized into noise-level indices, guiding a multi-step denoising process for level-wise supervision. This mechanism prevents low-quality labels from degrading the model while maximizing their utility during training. Furthermore, a Fourier-based refinement network is incorporated to explicitly reconstruct high-frequency components. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms SOTA approaches in restoration quality. The code and pre-trained model will be available once accepted in link.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Semantic Router: On the Feasibility of Hijacking MLLMs via a Single Adversarial Perturbation

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are increasingly deployed in stateless systems, such as autonomous driving and robotics. This paper investigates a novel threat: Semantic-Aware Hijacking. We explore the feasibility of hijacking multiple stateless decisions simultaneously using a single universal perturbation. We introduce the Semantic-Aware Universal Perturbation (SAUP), which acts as a semantic router, "actively" perceiving input semantics and routing them to distinct, attacker-defined targets. To achieve this, we conduct theoretical and empirical analysis on the geometric properties in the latent space. Guided by these insights, we propose the Semantic-Oriented (SORT) optimization strategy and annotate a new dataset with fine-grained semantics to evaluate performance. Extensive experiments on three representative MLLMs demonstrate the fundamental feasibility of this attack, achieving a 66% attack success rate over five targets using a single frame against Qwen.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Why Do Accumulated Transformations Extrapolate?

PaTH Attention showed that replacing RoPE's position-indexed rotations with accumulated data-dependent Householder reflections yields strong length extrapolation, though performance degrades at extreme context lengths. We ask whether this depends on Householder-specific structure or reflects a general property of accumulated transformations along source-to-query paths. We study a simpler variant keeping RoPE's block-diagonal SO(2) rotations but replacing position-indexed angles with accumulated token-dependent ones. It shows the same pattern: improved extrapolation then degradation at long contexts. We prove the result extends to accumulated orthogonal transformations satisfying certain regularity conditions: their products become incoherent after finitely many steps, suppressing attention to distant tokens. Accumulated rotations of queries and keys create a finite mixing window independent of context length; per-token suppression learned in training transfers unchanged to any evaluation length, and high-dimensional concentration produces a score gap suppressing far tokens while near-route transport preserves the target signal. Conversely, a lower bound shows accumulated rotations must eventually degrade: as the far set grows, no rotations preserve the near signal without explicit far-mass control. For SO(2) rotations, rotating values too makes residual far contributions combine incoherently, extending the range. Controlled experiments support these predictions: random accumulated rotations substantially improve extrapolation over RoPE, learned token-dependent rotations maintain near-training-length perplexity far beyond the training context, and rotating values helps over queries and keys alone. Rotation-only models still degrade at extreme lengths, while ALiBi stays length-stable, consistent with the need for far-mass control.

07.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Stochastic control with dividend payments and capital injections for Markov additive processes

作者:

arXiv:2604.00190v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Motivated by de Finetti's optimal dividend problem with capital injections, we study a stochastic control problem for the additive component of a Markov additive process (MAP). In contrast to previous studies, the modulating component is allowed to be a general right process on a Radon space, so the model is not restricted to finite-state regime switching and cannot in general be reduced to a finite collection of Lévy process control problems. Capital injections are allowed at arbitrary times. We first consider the case in which dividend payments are allowed only at prescribed discrete times and establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimality of a strategy. These conditions then yield the optimality of a class of Markov-modulated periodic–classical barrier strategies. Combining this optimality result with an approximation argument, we obtain insight into the possible form of optimal strategies in the case where dividend payments, like capital injections, may be made at arbitrary times. Because of the generality of the MAPs considered here, the proof techniques used in previous studies of similar problems are not directly applicable. We therefore develop an alternative argument based on the additive structure of MAPs and dynamic programming between dividend opportunities. The argument also suggests a possible approach to other stochastic control problems involving general MAPs.

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Brain-IT-VQA: From Brain Signals to Answers

Decoding visual content from fMRI signals recorded while a person views images, and specifically answering questions about the seen images, is a long-standing challenge. While significant progress has been made in recent years in visual question answering (VQA) from fMRI, performance remains limited. Moreover, although recent models can make increasingly accurate predictions, they have rarely been used as tools for understanding the structure of visual representations in the brain. We present Brain-IT-VQA, a framework for visual question answering from fMRI. Building on the Brain Interaction Transformer (Brain-IT), our method decodes language tokens from brain activity and integrates them with a language model to answer visual questions. Our model substantially outperforms previous fMRI-based captioning and VQA approaches. We further introduce NSD-VQA, a new dataset and benchmark for visual question answering from fMRI. Unlike existing image-fMRI VQA datasets, which typically provide only a few broad and weakly controlled questions per image, NSD-VQA provides on average 20 question-answer pairs per image across 20 controlled question categories that disentangle multiple levels of visual understanding. This enables more reliable and interpretable evaluation despite limited fMRI test data. Together, Brain-IT-VQA and NSD-VQA provide both a strong predictive framework and a tool for studying brain representations. Using this benchmark, we quantify which forms of visual and semantic information can be reliably decoded from fMRI responses to natural images. We further analyze the contributions of different brain regions across question types.

09.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Stochastic dominations for FK percolation and sharp thinning thresholds for the Ising energy field

arXiv:2606.13648v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: At first glance, one would imagine that the energy field of the Ising model, the set of edges whose endpoints share the same spin, is stochastically monotone as a function of the coupling constants. However, this is not generally the case. In this paper, we introduce two weaker notions of stochastic domination that make this result true: $p$–weak and $p$–weak$^\dagger$ domination. Both of these notions depend on a parameter $p$ and we find the optimal values $p$ and $p^\dagger$ so that these dominations hold. One of the key ingredient to obtain some of the results is a new stochastic domination relating FK percolations with different parameters $q,\tilde{q}\geq 1$ that is of independent interest.

10.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-18

Daily briefing: The proteins that protect us from deadly mutations

作者:

Proteins that ‘buffer’ the effects of mutations could help to treat diseases such as cancers. Plus, goats can follow human voices and the battle over a key ocean observatory project in the United States. Proteins that ‘buffer’ the effects of mutations could help to treat diseases such as cancers. Plus, goats can follow human voices and the battle over a key ocean observatory project in the United States.

11.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

The 1/4-phenomenon of placement probabilities of tilings in the Aztec diamond

arXiv:2512.08377v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We consider domino tilings of the Aztec diamond. Using the Domino Shuffling algorithm introduced by Elkies, Kuperberg, Larsen, and Propp in arXiv:math/9201305, we are able to generate domino tilings uniformly at random. In this paper, we investigate the probability of finding a domino at a specific position in such a random tiling. We prove that this placement probability is always equal to $1/4$ plus a rational function, whose shape depends on the location of the domino, multiplied by a position-independent factor that involves only the size of the diamond. This result leads to significantly more compact explicit counting formulas compared to previous findings. As a direct application, we derive explicit counting formulas for the domino tilings of Aztec diamonds with $2\times 2$-square holes at arbitrary positions.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Decision-Weighted Flow Matching for Contextual Stochastic Optimization

arXiv:2606.16790v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conditional generative models are increasingly used as scenario generators for stochastic optimization, but standard training objectives emphasize uniform distributional fit rather than the downstream decisions induced by generated scenarios. This creates an objective mismatch: errors in statistically common regions may have little effect on decision regret, whereas errors in decision-sensitive regions can substantially change the optimal action. We propose Decision-Weighted Flow Matching (DW-FM), a regret-aligned training framework that preserves the simplicity of standard flow matching while reweighting its velocity-regression objective using decision-sensitive endpoint information. Theoretically, we connect downstream regret to pathwise velocity mismatch through a loss-induced decision discrepancy and an adjoint transport argument, yielding an ideal regret-aligned surrogate and practical endpoint-weighted objectives with regret guarantees. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of DW-FM on three CVaR-based contextual stochastic optimization benchmarks spanning synthetic portfolio, semi-real financial, and traffic-CVaR tasks, where DW-FM improves downstream regret over standard baselines.

13.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

Quantum gates with parametrically driven multi-qubit couplers

arXiv:2606.14522v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Superconducting quantum processors could significantly profit from enhanced connectivity together with precise control of interactions and gates between qubits. Here we investigate plaquettes of four qubits that are coupled via a central tunable coupling circuit, so that not only gates between qubits connected by an edge of the plaquette can be executed but also between qubits across the diagonal. By numerically and analytically analyzing parametrically driven processes, we explore $\sqrt{iSWAP}$-gates between any pair of qubits, also across the diagonal, as well as three-qubit interactions and gates. For experimentally available circuit parameters, we for example find $\sqrt{iSWAP}$-gates with a gate time of 50 ns and 99.9\% fidelity, which is decreased to 99.4\% if two such gates are executed in parallel on disjoint qubit pairs in the plaquette. For three-qubit gates we find fidelities of 95\% fidelity at a gate time of 200 ns.

14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Operator Calculus for Population-Based Optimization: A Mean-Field Convergence Theory

arXiv:2606.14289v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Population-based and distributional optimization methods, from evolution strategies and consensus-based optimization to covariance-matrix adaptation and stochastic gradient methods viewed as distributional dynamics, are widely used for nonconvex or black-box problems, yet their convergence analyses remain fragmented across algorithm-specific techniques. We introduce an operator calculus in which a broad class of such methods, after choosing an appropriate state space and, where necessary, augmenting the state by memory or strategy variables, is described as a composition of three elementary operators (mutation, selection, and recombination) acting on probability measures. Under explicit stability and regularity conditions, the composite operator admits a pre-generator whose continuous-time limit is a transport-reaction-jump (TRJ) PDE that preserves the operator splitting. On this foundation we establish a modular Lyapunov principle. If a state-space Lyapunov function both dissipates under the full generator and controls the relevant search-space gauges, then the state-space Lyapunov functional and the induced search errors decay exponentially. The additive generator structure allows dissipation estimates to be assembled operator by operator, providing a toolkit for certifying convergence of composite mean-field algorithms.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Safe Exploration via Policy Priors

arXiv:2601.19612v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Safe exploration is a key requirement for reinforcement learning (RL) agents to learn and adapt online, beyond controlled (e.g. simulated) environments. In this work, we tackle this challenge by utilizing suboptimal yet conservative policies (e.g., obtained from offline data or simulators) as priors. Our approach, SOOPER, uses probabilistic dynamics models to optimistically explore, yet pessimistically fall back to the conservative policy prior if needed. We prove that SOOPER guarantees safety throughout learning, and establish convergence to an optimal policy by bounding its cumulative regret. Extensive experiments on key safe RL benchmarks and real-world hardware demonstrate that SOOPER is scalable, outperforms the state-of-the-art and validate our theoretical guarantees in practice.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

A Unified Framework for Runtime Verification and Model-Based Diagnosis in LOLA

arXiv:2606.23720v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present an integrated framework that unifies runtime verification and model-based diagnosis within the stream specification language LOLA. By encoding system descriptions, component health states, and observations into a single stream-based formalism, the approach enables continuous, online fault localization directly alongside fault detection, without requiring separate toolchains. The framework supports both time-invariant and transient faults, and naturally accommodates nondeterministic observations.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Evaluating Interactive 2D Visualization as a Sample Selection Strategy for Biomedical Time-Series Data Annotation

arXiv:2603.26592v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable machine-learning models in biomedical settings depend on accurate labels, yet annotating biomedical time-series data remains challenging. Algorithmic sample selection may support annotation, but evidence from studies involving real human annotators is scarce. Consequently, we compare three sample selection methods for annotation: random sampling (RND), farthest-first traversal (FAFT), and a graphical user interface-based method enabling exploration of complementary 2D visualizations (2DVs) of high-dimensional data. We evaluated the methods across four classification tasks in infant motility assessment (IMA) and speech emotion recognition (SER). Twelve annotators, categorized as experts or non-experts, performed data annotation under a limited annotation budget, and post-annotation experiments were conducted to evaluate the sampling methods. Across all classification tasks, 2DV performed best when aggregating labels across annotators. In IMA, 2DV most effectively captured rare classes, but also exhibited greater annotator-to-annotator label distribution variability resulting from the limited annotation budget, decreasing classification performance when models were trained on individual annotators' labels; in these cases, FAFT excelled. For SER, 2DV outperformed the other methods among expert annotators and matched their performance for non-experts in the individual-annotator setting. A failure risk analysis revealed that RND was the safest choice when annotator count or annotator expertise was uncertain, whereas 2DV had the highest risk due to its greater label distribution variability. Furthermore, post-experiment interviews indicated that 2DV made the annotation task more interesting and enjoyable. Overall, 2DV-based sampling appears promising for biomedical time-series data annotation, particularly when the annotation budget is not highly constrained.

19.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Allostatic load modifies neuropsychiatric risk following traumatic brain injury

Importance: Outcomes following traumatic brain injury (TBI) vary substantially, with a subset of individuals experiencing neuropsychiatric morbidity and worse prognosis. Exposure to psychosocial and environmental stressors may be an important, yet understudied, modifier of TBI trajectory. Allostatic load (AL) represents the cumulative physiological burden of chronic stress and provides a useful framework for evaluating pre-injury vulnerability. Objective: To assess the relationship between pre-injury AL burden and risk of mortality and incident neuropsychiatric diagnosis following TBI. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study leveraged electronic health record, survey, and laboratory data from the All of Us Research Program, version 8. Participants aged 18 years or older enrolled between May 6, 2018, and October 1, 2023, were queried for TBI diagnosis using clinical diagnostic codes. Data were analyzed between November 11, 2024, and January 7, 2026. Exposure: The physiological burden of pre-injury chronic stress exposure was estimated using an AL index (pALI) derived from anthropometric and laboratory biomarkers collected before index TBI. Main Outcomes and Measures: Post-TBI mortality and incident neuropsychiatric diagnosis clusters. Mortality risk was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models (hazard ratio [HR] with 95% CI), and risk of incident neuropsychiatric diagnosis was modeled using competing-risk regression with death as a competing event (sub-distribution HR with 95% CI). Results: The primary cohort included 4,552 individuals with an established TBI diagnosis and sufficient biomarker data to estimate pALI. The pALI measure differed across sociodemographic groups and was positively correlated with perceived stress (r=.08, p=.002). Higher pALI was associated with increased post-TBI mortality risk (adjusted HR=1.71; 95%CI, 1.36-2.14). Elevated pALI was also associated with greater risk of incident post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD; adjusted HR=1.28; 95%CI, 1.10-1.50) and sleep disorder (adjusted HR=1.42 95%CI, 1.29-1.57) diagnoses. Conclusions and Relevance: Higher pre-injury ALI was associated with increased risk of mortality and select neuropsychiatric outcomes following TBI, suggesting that AL burden may shape post-injury trajectories. Pre-injury chronic stress exposure and underlying stress biology may represent underrecognized determinants of vulnerability and resilience in brain injury recovery.

20.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Genome-wide association and multi-omics functional screens reveal the genetic architecture of foveal development

Foveal hypoplasia causes visual impairment across congenital eye disorders, yet the genetic programmes governing foveal development remain poorly characterised and no tractable model exists for foveal disease. In the first genome-wide association study of foveal hypoplasia, we identified 42 sentinel variants mapping to 54 effector genes supported by >= 2 criteria from a variant-to-gene framework incorporating developmental multi-omics. Disruption of six effector genes using mutant lines and CRISPR knockouts in the zebrafish high acuity zone recapitulates structural, functional, and ultrastructural hallmarks of foveal hypoplasia, establishing the first vertebrate disease model. Integration with human foetal single-cell and spatial transcriptomics reveals two temporal waves of effector gene expression and identifies Muller glia as critical mediators of foveal patterning. Phenome-wide analyses reveal foveal variants are pleiotropic with refractive, lenticular, and metabolic traits, connecting foveal development to anterior segment and systemic disease biology. These findings should inform mechanistic studies of macular disease.

21.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

A Unifying Lens on Reward Uncertainty in RLHF

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is bottlenecked by reward hacking, where the policy exploits errors in a proxy reward model (RM) and produces high RM scores without genuine quality gains. A natural mitigation is pessimism: lowering rewards in regions where the RM is uncertain. However, standard scalar RMs provide no principled notion of uncertainty. We argue that the right object is a distributional reward model $p(r\mid x,y)$. Under either a Bayesian inference or a KL-distributionally robust optimization (KL-DRO) lens, the KL-regularized RLHF objective admits a closed-form effective reward $\tilde r(x,y) = \pm\beta\log\mathbb{E}_p[e^{\pm r/\beta}]$. The pessimistic branch unifies the prior heuristics for RM ensemble aggregation: mean aggregation, worst-case optimization (WCO), and uncertainty-weighted optimization (UWO) all emerge as limits or truncations of this single expression. This also clarifies the implicit assumptions of each existing rule.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

The Algorithm Is Not the Behavior: Learned Priors Override Look-Ahead in a Chess-Playing Neural Network

arXiv:2508.21380v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent mechanistic work has uncovered learned algorithms within neural networks, from modular arithmetic to search and planning in game-playing agents. But does algorithmic structure guarantee algorithmic behavior? We investigate this in Leela Chess Zero, the strongest neural chess engine, where prior work identified learned look-ahead. By extending the logit lens to its move-selecting policy network, we discover that correct puzzle solutions-including immediate checkmates-often appear in intermediate layers but are systematically overridden in the final output, a phenomenon we term "forgotten puzzles". Replicating prior analyses on these positions, we find that look-ahead operates normally-future moves of the correct continuation are represented, causally important, and linearly decodable-ruling out a failure of the algorithm itself. Instead, late layers increasingly shift toward prioritizing safe play over aggression. To test whether this shift drives the override, we steer the model against these preferences and recover 61.7% of forgotten puzzles, providing causal evidence that safety priors override algorithmically computed solutions. These findings demonstrate that algorithmic structure does not guarantee algorithmic behavior: a model can internally solve a problem and still output the wrong answer.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

On the QUEST for Uncertainty Quantification via Highest Density Regions

arXiv:2606.19569v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications in probabilistic machine learning. For regression problems, dominant scalar UQ approaches - notably, those based on proper scoring rules - measure uncertainty via pointwise predictive risk. This can lead to counterintuitive results when the target statistic is not the conditional expectation. We propose an alternative framework, in which uncertainty is characterised by the volume of the most probable subset of a distribution's support. QUEST (Quantifying Uncertainty via highest dEnSiTy regions) is a novel approach to UQ based on the concentration of Lebesgue measure at a distribution's peak(s), evaluated at one or more values of a robustness parameter $\alpha$. We establish connections between our measures and classical statistics from information theory and economics. We show that, unlike popular alternatives based on proper scoring rules, QUEST measures of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty satisfy a set of axioms adapted from the UQ literature, including monotonicity under distributional spread and invariance to location shifts. Selective prediction benchmarks confirm that QUEST performs favourably against standard measures such as variance and differential entropy.

24.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-24

Fourier pixels for bidirectional light control

Digital cameras1 and displays2 use picture elements (pixels3) that perform a single function: detecting or emitting light intensity. To exploit the full information content of electromagnetic waves, more advanced elements are required. This has driven the development of multifunctional components that, for example, simultaneously detect and emit intensity4,5 or extract intensity and spectral information6–8. However, no pixel exists that both senses and generates optical wavefronts with full control over amplitude, phase and polarization, limiting bidirectional control and feedback of sophisticated light fields. Here we present a route to such pixels by demonstrating a versatile platform of miniaturized diffractive elements based on Fourier optics9. We use plasmonic surface waves10, which propagate coherently11 and efficiently12–15 across metallic surfaces. When these plasmons are launched towards wavy microstructures16 designed with simple Fourier analysis, arbitrary and background-free optical wavefronts are generated. Conversely, incoming light can be sensed, and its amplitude, phase and polarization can be fully characterized. By combining or superposing several such components, we create multifunctional ‘Fourier pixels’ that provide compact and accurate control over the optical field. Our approach, which we extend to photonic waveguide modes, establishes a scalable, universal architecture for vectorially programmable pixels with applications in adaptive optics17,18, holographic displays19–21, optical communication22,23 and quantum information processing24. A versatile platform of miniaturized Fourier-optics-based diffractive elements enables multifunctional pixels that fully control and sense the amplitude, phase and polarization of optical wavefronts for advanced photonic applications.

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

CausalMotion: Structured Physical Reasoning as Keyframe and Trajectory Guidance for Training-Free Video Generation

Recent advances in diffusion-based video generation have significantly improved visual quality and short-term temporal coherence. However, existing methods still struggle to produce videos with physically consistent and causally plausible dynamics, especially in scenarios involving long-horizon interactions. This limitation arises from the fact that video diffusion models primarily learn physical consistency implicitly, while vision-language models can directly model physical laws. Based on this idea, in this work, we propose CausalMotion, a training-free framework that injects explicit physical reasoning into video generation through structured intermediate representations. Our key idea is to decouple reasoning from generation by leveraging a vision-language model to decompose a text prompt into a sequence of causally consistent keyframes and object-centric motion trajectories. These representations are then aligned and integrated as soft constraints to guide a pretrained video diffusion model during inference. This design enables explicit modeling of object dynamics and causal transitions without requiring additional training or supervision. Extensive experiments show that our method consistently improves physical plausibility and temporal coherence, particularly in dynamics-intensive scenarios, while maintaining high perceptual video quality.