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01.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

Quantitative and Optimal Device-Independent Lower Bounds on Detection Efficiency

arXiv:2511.19302v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper examines a quantitative and optimal lower bound on the detector efficiency in a (2,2,2) Bell experiment within a fully device-independent framework, whereby the detectors used in the experiment are uncharacterized. We provide a tight lower bound on the minimum efficiency required to observe a desired Bell-CHSH violation using the Navascués-Pironio-Acín (NPA) hierarchy, confirming tightness up to four decimal places with numerical optimization over explicit quantum realizations. We then introduce the effect of dark counts and demonstrate how to quantify the minimum required efficiency to observe a desired CHSH violation with an increasing dark count error. Finally, to obtain an analytical closed-form expression of the minimum efficiency, we consider the set of no-signaling behaviors that satisfy the Tsirelson bound, which are easier to characterize than the quantum set. Using such behaviors, we find a simple closed-form expression for a lower bound on the minimum efficiency which is monotonically increasing with the CHSH violation, though the analytically obtained lower bounds are meaningfully below the numerically tight lower bound.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

DeepJEB++: Foundation Model-Driven Large-Scale 3D Engineering Dataset via 2D Latent Space Augmentation

arXiv:2606.12994v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data-driven engineering design is constrained by the lack of large-scale 3D datasets that pair geometry with physics-based performance labels. In particular, existing 3D data augmentation techniques have limitations in preserving subtle and diverse geometric variations, and it remains difficult to automate the subsequent simulation-labeling process, where boundary conditions vary depending on the generated geometry. We present DeepJEB++, a foundation-model-driven data-augmentation framework that expands a small seed set of jet engine brackets into a large, simulation-labeled 3D dataset under constrained resources. Our key idea is to augment in the data-rich 2D latent space, then transfer to 3D. In Stage 1, we fine-tune a pretrained 2D latent diffusion model on multi-view renders and synthesize novel views by latent interpolation, retaining manufacturable designs through a vision-language-model (VLM) quality filter. In Stage 2, the validated images are lifted to 3D meshes by a domain-adapted generative foundation model. In Stage 3, an automated pipeline recognizes the load and bolt interfaces on each mesh and assigns finite-element labels – mass, stress, and displacement – without manual intervention. We assess augmentation quality along three intrinsic axes: manufacturability, label fidelity against the SimJEB ground truth, and distributional consistency. Starting from fewer than 400 seed designs, DeepJEB++ yields 15,360 simulation-labeled 3D brackets – a 40x expansion – using a single GPU per stage. The dataset will be made publicly available to support reproducible engineering-AI research.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Geometry-Aware Style Transfer in 3D Gaussian Splatting

In this paper, we present a novel geometry-aware style transfer framework for 3D Gaussian splatting (3DGS) that simultaneously transfers appearance attributes and geometric structures. Unlike prior works that primarily focus on color-based stylization and often overlook structural adaptation, our method explicitly incorporates geometry adaptation through a decoupled optimization scheme that alternately updates color and geometry parameters. This strategy alleviates potential interference between color and geometry updates, leading to stable and consistent scene-level geometry transformation. The decoupled optimization is enabled by the proposed geometry-aware contrastive feature matching (GCFM). GCFM integrates RGB, depth, and edge cues into a contrastive objective and is employed in both optimization phases to effectively transfer structural characteristics from style images to Gaussian primitives. Extensive experiments show that our approach achieves superior performance in both qualitative fidelity and quantitative metrics, significantly outperforming existing 3DGS-based stylization methods. Our code is available at \href{https://github.com/oweixx/gast}{https://github.com/oweixx/gast}.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Seeing Roads Through Words: A Language-Guided Framework for RGB-T Driving Scene Segmentation

Robust semantic segmentation of road scenes under adverse illumination, lighting, and shadow conditions remain a core challenge for autonomous driving applications. RGB-Thermal fusion is a standard approach, yet existing methods apply static fusion strategies uniformly across all conditions, allowing modality-specific noise to propagate throughout the network. Hence, we propose CLARITY that dynamically adapts its fusion strategy to the detected scene condition. Guided by vision-language model (VLM) priors, the network learns to modulate each modality's contribution based on the illumination state while leveraging object embeddings for segmentation, rather than applying a fixed fusion policy. We further introduce two mechanisms - one which preserves valid dark-object semantics that prior noise-suppression methods incorrectly discard, and a hierarchical decoder that enforces structural consistency across scales to sharpen boundaries on thin objects. Experiments on the MFNet dataset demonstrate that CLARITY establishes a new state-of-the-art (SOTA), achieving 62.3% mIoU and 77.5% mAcc.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Learning the Context of Errors: Black-Box Online Adaptation of Time Series Foundation Models

arXiv:2606.14222v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The rapid evolution of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has advanced zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains. Inspired by the current form of Large Language Models, future TSFMs may be offered as commercialized, closed-source API services. However, many existing online adaptation methods still rely on white-box access for parameter fine-tuning or gradient backpropagation. This paradigm mismatch raises a question: In black-box online adaptation for TSFMs, what should we learn? We answer this with an insight: the predictive errors of the base model are conditioned on both the input and output of the base model (i.e., the context of errors). To validate this insight, we propose ORCA (Online Residual Contextual Adaptation). We conduct extensive experiments across 5 state-of-the-art TSFMs and 8 datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, through ablation studies, we quantitatively analyze the impact of different adapter learning hypotheses on the final adaptation performance in black-box online adaptation. Code available at https://github.com/Fifthky/ORCA.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

A Privacy-Preserving Framework Using Remote Data Science for Inter-Institutional Student Retention Prediction

arXiv:2606.12845v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This study explores privacy-preserving machine learning (PPML) techniques using the PySyft platform to enable collaborative prediction of student retention between institutions. We developed a remote data science (RDS) framework with a semi-air-gapped architecture consisting of high-side and low-side servers, allowing researchers from three universities to build predictive models on sensitive student data without direct data access. Using historical data from a small private university (N=720), we evaluated three synthetic data generation approaches and validated the framework through inter-institutional collaboration. The results demonstrate consistent classification performance across institutions (Macro F1: 0.690–0.695) while maintaining strict Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA) compliance. We also propose Data-Type-Aware Templates, a novel synthetic data method that prioritizes privacy over distributional fidelity. Our findings confirm that RDS-based PPML is technically feasible for educational settings and offers a practical alternative to federated learning for small-scale inter-institutional collaborations. The code is available at https://github.com/jtfields/NAIRR240195-Privacy-Preserving-Machine-Learning.

07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

ISE: An Execution-Grounded Recipe for Multi-Turn OS-Agent Trajectories

Training capable OS agents requires data that simultaneously captures structured user intents, multi-turn task delegation, and grounded tool execution–properties absent from existing datasets. We propose ISE (Intent -> Simulate -> Execute), a three-stage synthesis paradigm that addresses these gaps jointly. Stage 1 constructs roughly 50000 structured intents via a 4D framework (Persona x Domain x Task x Complexity); after deduplication the pool contains 43956 unique intents and attains a Vendi Score of 61.57 over the entire pool on mpnet-base-v2 embeddings (cosine kernel, q=1). Stage 2 drives multi-turn user-agent interaction through a role-locked user simulator that grounds each user turn in actual execution outcomes, producing 23132 complete trajectories averaging 8.12 user turns and 68.24 total dialogue turns. Stage 3 runs every tool call inside a live, isolated OS workspace, generating authentic failure-recovery dynamics instead of simulated responses. Fine-tuning on ISETrace improves ClawEval pass@1 from 19.3 to 37.7 using Qwen3-8B on agent tool-use tasks with a standard protocol. This result outperforms zero-shot GPT-4o and the larger Qwen3-32B base model which is four times bigger. An ablation on Stage 2 proves multi-turn simulation brings a large portion of the performance gain. We release all source code and dataset at https://github.com/Valiere01/ISE-Trace.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Structure-Preserving Neural Surrogates with Tractable Uncertainty Quantification

arXiv:2606.11650v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent advances in scientific machine learning provide a means of near-real-time solution to partial differential equations (PDEs), but lack the theoretical underpinnings of conventional simulators that support contemporary verification and validation. In this work, we construct data-driven reduced-order models that serve as structure-preserving, real-time surrogates. Remarkably, the exterior calculus that imposes physical conservation structure also exposes topological structure that we use to build a Gaussian process (GP) representation of uncertainty in state-flux relationships, ultimately yielding a Dirichlet-to-Neumann map for quantities of interest with closed-form expressions for posterior uncertainty. We specifically propose structure-preserving $H(\mathrm{div})$–$L^2$ subspaces of conventional Raviart–Thomas and $dgP_0$ elements prescribed by a lightweight transformer. Reduced-order dynamics consistent with this subspace are learned by posing a conservation law in which a GP describes the fluxes between volumes. This work hinges on a novel interface between mixed FEM spaces and GP regression; when training is posed as the optimal recovery problem (ORP), the resulting GP regression can be written as an optimization problem with equality constraints that impose a conservation structure, amenable to a fast Schur-complement training strategy. The trained model can then be solved in real time with closed-form estimators for boundary fluxes driven by prescribed Dirichlet data. The paper includes RKHS posterior error bounds for linear functionals to support uncertainty quantification, as well as numerical experiments demonstrating the accuracy of the posterior distribution as a surrogate for error estimation.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

A New Perspective on Precision and Recall for Generative Models

arXiv:2511.02414v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: With the recent success of generative models in image and text, the question of their evaluation has recently gained a lot of attention. While most methods from the state of the art rely on scalar metrics, the introduction of Precision and Recall (PR) for generative model has opened up a new avenue of research. The associated PR curve allows for a richer analysis, but their estimation poses several challenges. In this paper, we present a new framework for estimating entire PR curves based on a binary classification standpoint. We conduct a thorough statistical analysis of the proposed estimates. As a byproduct, we obtain a minimax upper bound on the PR estimation risk. We also show that our framework extends several landmark PR metrics of the literature which by design are restrained to the extreme values of the curve. Finally, we study the different behaviors of the curves obtained experimentally in various settings.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Polaris: A Godel Agent Framework for Small Language Models through Experience-Abstracted Policy Repair

arXiv:2603.23129v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Gödel agent realize recursive self-improvement: an agent inspects its own policy and traces and then modifies that policy in a tested loop. We introduce Polaris, a Gödel agent for compact models that performs policy repair via experience abstraction, turning failures into policy updates through a structured cycle of analysis, strategy formation, abstraction, and minimal code pat ch repair with conservative checks. Unlike response level self correction or parameter tuning, Polaris makes policy level changes with small, auditable patches that persist in the policy and are reused on unseen instances within each benchmark. As part of the loop, the agent engages in meta reasoning: it explains its errors, proposes concrete revisions to its own policy, and then updates the policy. To enable cumulative policy refinement, we introduce experience abstraction, which distills failures into compact, reusable strategies that transfer to unseen instances. On MGSM, DROP, GPQA, and LitBench (covering arithmetic reasoning, compositional inference, graduate-level problem solving, and creative writing evaluation), a 7-billion-parameter model equipped with Polaris achieves consistent gains over the base policy and competitive baselines.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Testing For Distribution Shifts with Conditional Conformal Test Martingales

arXiv:2602.13848v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a sequential test for detecting arbitrary distribution shifts that allows conformal test martingales (CTMs) to work under a fixed, reference-conditional setting. Existing CTM detectors construct test martingales by continually growing a reference set with each incoming sample, using it to assess how atypical the new sample is relative to past observations. While this design yields anytime-valid type-I error control, it suffers from test-time contamination: after a change, post-shift observations enter the reference set and dilute the evidence for distribution shift, increasing detection delay and reducing power. In contrast, our method avoids contamination by design by comparing each new sample to a fixed null reference dataset. Our main technical contribution is a robust martingale construction that remains valid conditional on the null reference data, achieved by explicitly accounting for the estimation error in the reference distribution induced by the finite reference set. This yields anytime-valid type-I error control together with guarantees of asymptotic power one and bounded expected detection delay. Empirically, our method detects shifts faster than standard CTMs, providing a powerful and reliable distribution-shift detector.

12.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

SC3-Eval: Evaluating Robot Foundation Models via Self-Consistent Video Generation

Evaluating generalist robot manipulation policies in the real world is expensive, slow, and difficult to scale. Action-conditioned video world models offer a scalable alternative by simulating policy rollouts. Autoregressive rollouts accumulate compounding errors, observations across multiple camera views must remain mutually consistent, and the evaluator must generalize to policies whose behaviors lie outside the training distribution. We address these challenges with SC3-Eval, a self-consistent video generation recipe that adapts a pre-trained video foundation model into an accurate policy evaluator by enforcing three complementary forms of consistency. First, forward-inverse dynamics consistency jointly trains the model to predict frames from actions and to recover actions from frames, anchoring generated rollouts to a physically plausible action manifold and counteracting the drift a forward-only model cannot penalize. Second, cross-view consistency trains the model to inpaint each camera view from the other, keeping the multi-camera observation coherent over long rollouts without any explicit memory mechanism. Third, test-time consistency reuses the inverse dynamics mode at inference as a per-action-chunk uncertainty signal that terminates rollouts whose generated frames drift away from the requested actions. We also demonstrate SC3-Eval rollouts reproduce the failure modes that policies exhibit in real-world rollouts, supporting fine-grained diagnostic comparison rather than aggregate ranking alone. Across seven real-world vision-language-action policies, SC3-Eval attains a closed-loop Pearson correlation of $0.929$ and MMRV of $0.119$, outperforming three strong prior video-model-based baselines, and generalizes to new tasks.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

The Long Tail, Not the Front Page: Cold-Start Prediction of Crowd Highlight Salience

A social highlighter's most useful signal – which passages a crowd of readers marks – exists only for documents people have already read. Can the aggregate crowd salience of a document be predicted from its text before its marks accumulate? Prior work on this data found that zero-shot language models recover highlight locations worse than a trivial lead (position) baseline, so we ask whether a model trained on the highlight corpus can beat that baseline. Using a pre-registered ladder of models and a by-document cluster bootstrap, we find a small but robust edge: a logistic ranker over sentence embeddings and positional/contextual features beats the lead baseline by +0.044 average precision (95% CI [+0.029, +0.058]; clears a pre-registered margin delta=0.03 in 97% of resamples, and stable across pipeline re-runs). Two unsupervised extractive baselines (centroid, LexRank-style centrality) lose to lead, and the trained model beats them by +0.108, so the edge is not recovered by generic unsupervised proxies – it reflects learning from real reader marks. In product terms, precision@3 rises from 0.25 to 0.39 (+55% relative) and the model beats lead on 69% of documents. An ablation attributes the edge to the raw embedding (+0.014) and training augmentation (+0.010), each with a positive CI. The edge is not a temporal-generalization failure, and we find no evidence that content drift or near-duplicate leakage explains it. A standardized regression shows the advantage is governed mainly by document popularity (lower popularity, larger edge) and by label reliability. It nearly vanishes only on the most popular content; there it is the lead baseline that strengthens, not the model that weakens. Because our evaluation conditions on documents that eventually accumulated readers, these results are a retrospective cold-start simulation.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Agentic System as Compressor: Quantifying System Intelligence in Bits

arXiv:2606.25960v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models are turning from isolated predictors into agentic systems: they call tools, retrieve evidence, obey environment constraints, use verifiers, and complete tasks through search and multi-turn interaction. We adopts an analytical viewpoint based on "compression is intelligence": under a fixed task distribution, interface, and compute budget, a stronger agentic system lets a target object be reconstructed with fewer bits. We operationalize the measure with arithmetic coding, seed coding, and a fallback, and evaluate it in five settings: reversed text, chess moves, protein sequences, retrieval-augmented question answering, and semantic story compression; in all of them agentic components reduce codelength. These small, controlled experiments cover component types typical of real agentic systems, show that codelength can analyze how components, observers, and budgets change residual uncertainty, and offer guidance for evaluating real agent systems.

15.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-11

‘Footballers are not superheroes’: we must tackle the mental and physical pressures of elite sport

作者:

As the men’s football World Cup gets under way, how the game weighs on the health of athletes still isn’t talked about enough, says player-turned-medic Vincent Gouttebarge. As the men’s football World Cup gets under way, how the game weighs on the health of athletes still isn’t talked about enough, says player-turned-medic Vincent Gouttebarge.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Olmo Hybrid: From Theory to Practice and Back

Recent work has demonstrated the potential of non-transformer language models, especially linear recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and hybrid models that mix recurrence and attention. Yet there is no consensus on whether the potential benefits of these new architectures justify the risk and effort of scaling them up. To address this, we provide evidence for the advantages of hybrid models over pure transformers on several fronts. First, theoretically, we show that hybrid models do not merely inherit the expressivity of transformers and linear RNNs, but can express tasks beyond both, such as code execution. Putting this theory to practice, we train Olmo Hybrid, a 7B-parameter model largely comparable to Olmo 3 7B but with the sliding window layers replaced by Gated DeltaNet layers. We show that Olmo Hybrid outperforms Olmo 3 across standard pretraining and mid-training evaluations, demonstrating the benefit of hybrid models in a controlled, large-scale setting. We find that the hybrid model scales significantly more efficiently than the transformer, explaining its higher performance. However, its unclear why greater expressivity on specific formal problems should result in better scaling or superior performance on downstream tasks unrelated to those problems. To explain this apparent gap, we return to theory and argue why increased expressivity should translate to better scaling efficiency, completing the loop. Overall, our results suggest that hybrid models mixing attention and recurrent layers are a powerful extension to the language modeling paradigm: not merely to reduce memory during inference, but as a fundamental way to obtain more expressive models that scale better during pretraining.

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

EchoStyle: Unlocking High-Fidelity Video Stylization with Reverse Data Synthesis

While image stylization has been studied extensively, video stylization remains a critical and largely unsolved challenge in the field of intelligent content creation. Existing methods, usually utilizing a reference image as the style prior, suffer from content leakage, data scarcity and limited adaptability to long videos, leading to suboptimal results with severe style drift and motion distortion. For these issues, we present EchoStyle, a scalable text-driven framework to achieve high-quality stylization of videos with arbitrary lengths. To start with, we construct a video-to-video architecture to appropriately re-fuse the video content and the text style. To address data scarcity, we pioneer an automatic reverse-synthesis pipeline to establish V-Style20k, a large-scale stylization dataset of 20k high-quality video pairs. To facilitate long video stylization, we devise an init-follow-mode mechanism along with a sliding-window inference strategy. Extensive experiments demonstrate EchoStyle's excellent performance across a wide range of artistic styles, even comparable to leading closed-source solutions.

18.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-25

A Mean-Field Lindblad Master Equation Framework for Interaction-Driven Decoherence in Solid-State Qubit Ensembles

arXiv:2606.25261v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-qubit systems are essential for scalable quantum technologies, but their performance is often limited by decoherence from qubit–qubit interactions and environmental noise. Although environmental decoherence in single-qubit systems and gate fidelity in multi-qubit systems have been widely studied, a predictive framework connecting qubit interactions, concentration, spatial distribution, and bath occupation to relaxation and decoherence times remains lacking. Here, we develop a multi-qubit mean-field Lindblad master equation (MQMF-LME) framework for the population and coherence dynamics of a solid-state qubit in an interacting multi-qubit environment. The framework treats one qubit as the system of interest and the surrounding qubits as an effective bath, incorporating intrinsic relaxation and bidirectional excitation transfer between the system and the bath. Analytical solutions provide closed-form expressions for density-matrix dynamics, steady-state populations, relaxation time $T_1$, and decoherence time $T_2$, while numerical simulations extend the framework to concentration-dependent dynamics, $1/f$-noise-induced dephasing, and material-specific excitation-transfer mechanisms. For a model system with Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET)-mediated excitation exchange, higher qubit concentrations reduce both $T_1$ and $T_2$, whereas $1/f$ noise reduces $T_2$ without changing $T_1$. Applied to Er$^{3+}$-doped CeO$_2$, the framework shows that long-range FRET-mediated excitation transfer reproduces the experimental decrease in relaxation time with dopant concentration, whereas short-range Dexter-type exchange does not, identifying FRET-mediated excitation transfer as the dominant mechanism. The MQMF-LME framework provides a modular route for linking microscopic interactions and environmental noise sources to measurable decoherence times in solid-state multi-qubit systems.

19.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Split-Head Quantum Generative Adversarial Network for Crystalline Material Discovery

arXiv:2606.17852v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The discovery of novel crystalline materials is a critical challenge in computational materials science, often limited by the spatial representation limitations and mode collapse typical of classical generative models. Traditionally, developing Quantum GANs for continuous 3D space is hindered by the limited capacity of near-term hardware. To overcome this, we adapt a physics-informed "split-head" architecture right from the quantum trunk to explicitly decouple macroscopic lattice bounds from microscopic atomic coordinates, significantly maximizing resource efficiency. This study disentangles the contributions of quantum circuits from these architectural priors by evaluating a Split-Head Quantum Generative Adversarial Network against an architecture-matched classical ablation model. Evaluated on the highly constrained Mg-Mn-O system, the results reveal a highly nuanced performance dichotomy between the advanced models. The architecture-matched classical ablation model demonstrated superior thermodynamic precision. Conversely, the integration of quantum circuits in the SH-QGAN drove unparalleled structural breadth and latent space exploration, more than doubling the ablation's geometric validity and successfully generating novel, metastable candidates converging on the Mg2MnO4 stoichiometry. These findings clarify that while architectural separation of cell and atom generation drives strict thermodynamic precision, quantum feature mapping independently provides the spatial diversity necessary to overcome mode collapse. Both mechanisms offer distinct, complementary enhancements for the generative discovery of advanced materials.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

CoreMem: Riemannian Retrieval and Fisher-Guided Distillation for Long-Term Memory in Dialogue Agents

Personalized dialogue agents require continuous long-term memory to maintain coherent interactions across multiple sessions. However, deploying these capabilities on consumer-grade hardware (e.g., 8 GB VRAM edge devices) introduces severe memory and compute bottlenecks. Existing systems typically rely on isotropic cosine similarity for retrieval and heuristic rules for context compression. These approaches lack a unified theoretical foundation, frequently suffering from the hubness problem in high-dimensional retrieval and syntactic fragmentation during compression. To overcome these limitations, we propose CoreMem, a resource-efficient edge-cloud memory architecture fundamentally unified by information geometry. First, Riemannian retrieval replaces cosine matching with a locally adaptive Fisher-Rao metric, effectively penalizing hub memories via Mahalanobis distance with O(Ndr) Woodbury acceleration for real-time search. Second, Fisher-guided discrete token distillation (FDTD) introduces a hierarchical sentence-to-token compression mechanism. It derives sensitivity scores from Fisher information traces, providing a principled compression-KL tradeoff augmented with explicit structural syntax protection. Evaluated on the LOCOMO and LongMemEval-S benchmarks, CoreMem achieves strong accuracy improvements, yielding substantial gains in Open-domain (+4.51 pp) and Temporal (+4.17 pp) reasoning. Extensive profiling confirms that CoreMem operates seamlessly within a strict 8 GB VRAM budget, successfully bridging the gap between resource-constrained edge devices and the demand for theoretically grounded, lifelong memory agents.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

AI Researchers Must Help Lead Arms Control to Mitigate Military AI Risks

arXiv:2606.11533v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The advancement of AI capabilities compels researchers and the public to be more aware of its potential worldwide impact. A pressing near-term concern is the regulation of military AI applications. Armament manufacturers and defense contractors are increasingly investing in AI capabilities and forging partnerships with AI companies, creating a burgeoning coalition that demands military leaders, arms control diplomacy experts, and AI researchers collaborate to ensure a safer future. While AI researchers often focus on the long-term implications of superintelligent AI, this approach may not adequately address the immediate challenges posed by AI in military applications. Success requires acknowledging and mitigating the emerging risks of frontier AI models that plan to be integrated into defense applications, like military AI systems. Arms control has reduced past catastrophic risks, so lessons learned from nuclear deterrence can guide AI safety and security research towards innovations in verification and diplomacy. AI researchers, however, must assist in leading the technical research that clearly defines and alleviates instability in military settings. Given these new responsibilities and the lack of sufficiently reliable solutions, we argue that AI researchers must take a leading role in advancing arms control research to minimize risk in military AI applications.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Data augmented bootstrap: Unifying confidence interval construction by approximate invariance

arXiv:2606.09049v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We propose the data augmented bootstrap (DAB), a framework for constructing confidence intervals from approximately invariant transformations of the data. As special cases, DAB recovers popular methods that rely on exact group symmetries, such as conformal prediction, wild bootstrap for Maximum Mean Discrepancy U-statistics and the recently proposed SymmPI. Meanwhile, DAB also recovers the classical bootstrap method, which exploits the dataset's approximate invariance under uniform sampling of data indices as the dataset size grows. For all DAB methods, we establish theoretical coverage results that interpolate between finite-sample and asymptotic guarantees according to the strength of the invariance, and without assuming a group structure. The approximate invariance is measured in the Kolmogorov distance and, for statistics that satisfy Gaussian universality, reduces to conditional mean and variance matching. This allows us to incorporate data augmentation (DA), a widely used machine learning heuristic based on approximate invariances, into known statistical methods. We empirically test the performance of incorporating DA into bootstrap, wild bootstrap and conformal prediction for simulated settings as well as for image, language and scientific data.

23.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-24

Conditionally Poissonian random digraphs

arXiv:1705.03801v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We define a Poissonian model of directed random graphs which generalises the undirected Poissonian random graph process introduced by Norros and Reittu in Adv. Appl. Probab. 38 (2006), 59–75. Its loopless simple projection is a rank-one independent-arc inhomogeneous digraph of the type studied by Cao and Olvera-Cravioto, Random Struct. Alg. 56 (2020), 722–774. For the Poissonian multigraph itself, we discuss the relation to Norros-Reittu graphs, characterise limiting degree distributions, and record explicit exploration estimates. In particular, we give fixed-depth directed local weak limits, stopped branching-process couplings with weight-mass collision budgets, a comparison with the simple projection, and a rare-event concentration criterion. These estimates are intended as graph-side structural inputs for later dynamics on the graph.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2026

arXiv:2606.15708v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Welcome to the ninth edition of the AI Index report. As AI continues to advance rapidly, the question becomes whether the systems built around it can keep up. Governance frameworks, evaluation methods, education systems, and the data infrastructure needed to track AI's impact are struggling to match the pace of the technology itself. That gap between what AI can do and how prepared we are to manage it runs through every chapter of this year's report. New in this edition, the report tracks how AI is being tested more ambitiously across reasoning, safety, and real-world task execution, and why those measurements are increasingly difficult to rely on. It also features new estimates of generative AI's economic value alongside emerging evidence of its labor market effects, an analytical framework on AI sovereignty, and a science chapter developed in collaboration with Schmidt Sciences. For the first time, the report features standalone chapters on AI in science and AI in medicine, reflecting AI's growing impact across these two domains.

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

The N-Body Problem: Parallel Execution from Single-Person Egocentric Video

Humans can intuitively parallelise complex activities, but can a model predict this from observing a single person? Given one egocentric video, we introduce the N-Body Problem: predicting how N individuals, can hypothetically perform the same set of tasks. The goal is to maximise speed-up, but naive assignment of video segments to individuals often violates real-world constraints, leading to physically impossible scenarios like two people using the same object or occupying the same space. To quantify this, we formalise the N-Body Problem and propose a suite of metrics to evaluate both performance (speed-up, task coverage) and feasibility (spatial collisions, object conflicts and causal constraints). As a proof of concept, we introduce a structured prompting strategy that guides a Vision-Language Model (VLM) to reason about the 3D environment, object usage, and temporal dependencies, producing a viable parallel execution. On 100 videos from EPIC-Kitchens and HD-EPIC, for $N = 2$, our structured prompt improves action coverage by 45% over a baseline prompt for Gemini 2.5 Pro, while simultaneously slashing collision rates, object and causal conflicts by 51%, 52% and 55% respectively.