medRxiv (Medicine)
2026-06-10
DOI: HASH:aa7b4ba6ecdcd99a8dfa525f8273666d
Background. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is defined by progressive pancreatic {beta}-cell dysfunction whose molecular underpinnings remain incompletely understood. Single-cohort transcriptomic analyses of donor islets have yielded heterogeneous gene lists of limited cross-study reproducibility, constraining both mechanistic interpretation and biomarker development. Methods. We combined two complementary analytical strategies applied to four public human islet transcriptomic cohorts (GSE25724, GSE20966, GSE38642, and GSE164416; n = 7-57 donors per contrast). For the integrative arm, three microarray datasets and one bulk RNA-seq dataset were processed independently and unified through gene-level random-effects meta-analysis, hallmark pathway scoring (GSVA/MSigDB), and iterative module refinement, yielding a two-axis disease framework. For the diagnostic arm, a consensus multi-method machine learning pipeline, combining LASSO penalized logistic regression, Support Vector Machine Recursive Feature Elimination (SVM-RFE), and Random Forest importance scoring, was applied to 184 differentially expressed genes from the RNA-seq cohort, with all normalization steps performed within leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) folds to prevent data leakage. Machine learning classification of the RNA-seq cohort was additionally subjected to external transportability testing in the independent bulk human islet RNA-seq cohort GSE50244 using an overlap-restricted reduced score and a threshold fixed in the discovery cohort. Results. Meta-analysis across all four cohorts identified 337 high-confidence T2D-associated genes (96.1% directional concordance in beta-cell-enriched tissue). These were distilled into two refined 14-gene modules: ImmuneStress (MICB, HLA-DRA, HLA-DPA1, IL1R2, and others) and BetaCellIdentitySecretion (RASGRP1, PPP1R1A, SLC2A2, and others), whose composite IsletDysfunctionScore provided the most stable cross-platform separation of non-diabetic from T2D islets (Hedges' g = 1.80, p = 9.83 x $10^-17$, $text{I}^2$= 0%). Consistent with progressive disease, IsletDysfunctionScore increased monotonically from non-diabetic to impaired glucose tolerance to T2D. Separately, the machine learning pipeline derived a 10-gene diagnostic panel: GABRA2, SLC2A2, ARG2, DKK3, PRIMA1, TAFA4, HHATL, PARVG, RNU1-70P, and the novel lncRNA ENSG00000284653, that achieved perfect discrimination in LOOCV (AUC = 1.000, sensitivity = 1.000, specificity = 1.000, zero misclassifications across all 57 donors). A leakage-verification experiment confirmed that this performance reflected genuine biological signal: global quantile normalization prior to cross-validation collapsed AUC to 0.380. External testing showed that 8 of the 10 panel genes were measurable in GSE50244. The frozen 8-gene reduced score retained strong discrimination (external AUC = 0.907), with 6 of 8 genes preserving directional concordance, but the discovery-derived threshold did not transfer because the external score distribution was shifted upward and compressed, yielding complete sensitivity but zero specificity at the frozen cutoff Conclusions. Integrating pathway-level meta-analysis with machine learning classification, we present a coherent two-axis model: immune/stress activation and loss of beta-cell identity/secretory competence, together with a compact, biologically interpretable 10-gene diagnostic signature. Panel genes converge on GABA signaling, glucose transport, arginine metabolism, WNT pathway inhibition, and a novel lncRNA, providing both mechanistic hypotheses and high-priority targets for external validation. These findings offer a reproducible transcriptomic scaffold for future mechanistic, biomarker, and clinical translation studies of human islet dysfunction. They also support external transportability of the core biological signal, while indicating that absolute operating thresholds are cohort-dependent and would require recalibration before deployment in independent datasets.