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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

AI systems out-persuade expert humans

作者:
Kobi Hackenburg↗Caroline Wagner↗Luke Hewitt↗Ben M. Tappin↗Ed Saunders↗Hannah Rose Kirk↗Helen Margetts↗Christopher Summerfield↗

arXiv:2606.16475v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many societal decisions are settled by contests of persuasion. Conversational AI is a powerful new entrant in these contests, but whether it can out-persuade skilled and highly incentivized humans has remained unclear. Here, in a series of four preregistered experiments (n = 18,978 conversations from 6,923 people), we pitted AI systems against a range of human persuaders, including laypeople, winners of a separately preregistered four-round online persuasion tournament, professional canvassers, and world championship debaters. We found that AI systems were reliably more persuasive than expert humans, even when expert humans chose their issues, researched in advance, underwent hours of live, structured practice, and were incentivized with {\pounds}1,000 cash bonuses. In a follow-up study, AI's advantage persisted after experts received a coaching tool that let them practice against the AI that beat them, review their performance history, and see what AI would have said at key moments. We found converging evidence that AI's advantage stemmed from rapidly deploying larger quantities of information: after coaching, expert humans could tie an AI constrained to respond at human speeds and with human-length messages. In a final study, we show that AI's advantage extends to consequential real-world behavior: AI was nearly 3x more effective than professional canvassers from a UK fundraising firm at raising real-money donations to Save the Children. Together, these results establish that frontier AI systems out-persuade expert humans in conversation, with significant implications for political communication.

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02.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

When the Same Musical Knowledge Forgets Differently: A Clean Probe of Pathway-Dependent Forgetting

作者:
Yu Liu↗Zhiwei Yang↗Wenxiao Zhang↗Cong Cao↗Fangfang Yuan↗Kun Peng↗Haimei Qin↗Lei Jiang↗Jin B. Hong↗Hao Peng↗Yanbing Liu↗

A model can learn that the piano piece Für Elise is calm and reflective by listening to the audio or by reading a text description, but does it matter which route that knowledge took when it is later at risk of being forgotten? Forgetting research in multimodal models measures what knowledge is lost under adaptation, yet has not asked whether acquisition route affects how easily that knowledge is forgotten. We call this untested premise the Pathway-Invariant Assumption. Music understanding enables a clean test because a music clip and a canonical text description can be aligned to the same perceptual content, allowing the same knowledge unit to enter a model through listening or reading while the target remains fixed. Across multiple architecturally distinct audio-language models, we observe a consistent asymmetry: text-pathway knowledge is forgotten more than matched audio-pathway knowledge under identical adaptation pressure. To attribute this effect to route rather than confounds, we introduce the Paired Pathway Controlled Protocol (PPCP), a three-phase design that establishes matched pathway baselines, activates both pathways under symmetric supervision on the same knowledge pool, and applies identical forgetting pressure to both pathways. The gap is stable across models and gain-controlled analyses, persists when contradictory overwrite is replaced by correct-label cross-domain learning, remains under single-modality pressure, and is not removed by lightweight replay. Two independent routing-depth controls confirm that the effect is not explained by architectural depth, pointing to input representation as the dominant factor. Under PPCP, our results demonstrate that forgetting is highly route-dependent, establishing acquisition route as a new analytical dimension for forgetting research and multimodal system design.

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03.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

A Tail-Respecting Splitting Numerical Scheme for Lévy-Driven SDEs With Superlinear Drifts

作者:
Olga Aryasova↗Oleksii Kulyk↗Ilya Pavlyukevich↗

arXiv:2504.07255v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present an explicit numerical approximation scheme, denoted by $\{X^n\}$, for the effective simulation of solutions $X$ to a multivariate stochastic differential equation (SDE) with a superlinearly growing $\kappa$-dissipative drift, where $\kappa>1$, driven by a multiplicative heavy-tailed Lévy process that has a finite $p$-th moment, with $p>0$. We show that the strong $L^{p_X}$-convergence $\sup_{t\in[0,T]}\mathbf E \|X^n_t-X_t\|^{p_X}=\mathcal O (h_n^{\gamma})$ holds for any $p_X\in (0,p+\kappa-1)$, which is exactly the range where the $p_X$-moment of the solution is known to be finite. Additionally, for any $p_X\in (0,p)$ we establish strong uniform convergence: $\mathbf E\sup_{t\in[0,T]} \|X^n_t-X_t\|^{p_X}=\mathcal{O} ( h_n^{\delta} )$. In both cases we determine the convergence rates $\gamma$ and $\delta$. In the special case of SDEs driven solely by a Brownian motion, our numerical scheme preserves super-exponential moments of the solution. The scheme $\{X^n\}$ is realized as a combination of a well-known Euler method with a Lie-Trotter type splitting technique.

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04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

In-Context Environments Induce Evaluation-Awareness in Language Models

作者:
Maheep Chaudhary↗

Humans often become more self-aware under threat, yet can lose self-awareness when absorbed in a task; we hypothesize that language models exhibit environment-dependent evaluation awareness. This raises concerns that models could strategically underperform, or sandbag, to avoid triggering capability-limiting interventions such as unlearning or shutdown. Prior work demonstrates sandbagging under hand-crafted prompts, but this underestimates the true vulnerability ceiling. We introduce a black-box adversarial optimization framework treating the in-context prompt as an optimizable environment, and develop two approaches to characterize sandbagging: (1) measuring whether models expressing intent to underperform can actually execute it across different task structures, and (2) causally isolating whether underperformance is driven by genuine evaluation-aware reasoning or shallow prompt-following. Evaluating Claude-3.5-Haiku, GPT-4o-mini, and Llama-3.3-70B across four benchmarks (Arithmetic, GSM8K, MMLU, and HumanEval), optimized prompts induce up to 94 percentage point (pp) degradation on arithmetic (GPT-4o-mini: 97.8\%$\rightarrow$4.0\%), far exceeding hand-crafted baselines which produce near-zero behavioral change. Code generation exhibits model-dependent resistance: Claude degrades only 0.6pp, while Llama's accuracy drops to 0\%. The intent – execution gap reveals a monotonic resistance ordering: Arithmetic $

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06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Sorries Are Not the Hard Part: An Expert-Review Case Study of a Semi-Autonomous Formalization

作者:
Vasily Ilin↗Brian Nugent↗

arXiv:2606.13925v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models can often close proof gaps in interactive theorem provers, but a verified theorem is not the same thing as a reusable library contribution. We study this distinction through a detailed case study: a semi-autonomous formalization of Grothendieck's vanishing theorem. The initial version compiles with no sorries, but an expert review found serious problems in definitions, theorem generality, file organization, and the API. We then ran a review-driven refactor and compression process and obtained a second expert review. The before-and-after comparison shows a sharp split: agents adapted well to local, mechanically checkable feedback, but remained weak at choosing definitions and designing APIs. We argue that autoformalization should be evaluated not only by closed sorries, but by whether the resulting formalization survives expert review.

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07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Cross-Model Disagreement as a Label-Free Correctness Signal

作者:
Matt Gorbett↗Suman Jana↗

arXiv:2603.25450v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Detecting when a language model is wrong without ground truth labels is a fundamental challenge for safe deployment. Existing approaches rely on a model's own uncertainty – such as token entropy or confidence scores – but these signals fail critically on the most dangerous failure mode: confident errors, where a model is wrong but certain. In this work we introduce cross-model disagreement as a correctness indicator – a simple, training-free signal that can be dropped into existing production systems, routing pipelines, and deployment monitoring infrastructure without modification. Given a model's generated answer, cross-model disagreement computes how surprised or uncertain a second verifier model is when reading that answer via a single forward pass. No generation from the verifying model is required, and no correctness labels are needed. We instantiate this principle as Cross-Model Perplexity (CMP), which measures the verifying model's surprise at the generating model's answer tokens, and Cross-Model Entropy (CME), which measures the verifying model's uncertainty at those positions. Both CMP and CME outperform within-model uncertainty baselines across benchmarks spanning reasoning, retrieval, and mathematical problem solving (MMLU, TriviaQA, and GSM8K). On MMLU, CMP achieves a mean AUROC of 0.75 against a within-model entropy baseline of 0.59. These results establish cross-model disagreement as a practical, training-free approach to label-free correctness estimation, with direct applications in deployment monitoring, model routing, selective prediction, data filtering, and scalable oversight of production language model systems.

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08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Learning Structural Hardness for Combinatorial Auctions: Instance-Dependent Algorithm Selection via Graph Neural Networks

作者:
Sungwoo Kang↗

arXiv:2602.14772v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The Winner Determination Problem (WDP) in combinatorial auctions is NP-hard, and no existing method reliably predicts which instances will defeat fast greedy heuristics. The ML-for-combinatorial-optimization community has focused on learning to replace solvers, yet recent evidence shows that graph neural networks (GNNs) rarely outperform well-tuned classical methods on standard benchmarks. We pursue a different objective: learning to predict when a given instance is hard for greedy allocation, enabling instance-dependent algorithm selection. We design a 20-dimensional structural feature vector and train a lightweight MLP hardness classifier that predicts the greedy optimality gap with mean absolute error 0.033, Pearson correlation 0.937, and binary classification accuracy 94.7\% across three random seeds. For instances identified as hard – those exhibiting ``whale-fish'' trap structure where greedy provably fails – we deploy a heterogeneous GNN specialist that achieves ${\approx}0\%$ optimality gap on all six adversarial configurations tested (vs.\ 3.75–59.24\% for greedy). A hybrid allocator combining the hardness classifier with GNN and greedy solvers achieves 0.51\% overall gap on mixed distributions. Our honest evaluation on CATS benchmarks confirms that GNNs do not outperform Gurobi (0.45–0.71 vs.\ 0.20 gap), motivating the algorithm selection framing. Learning when to deploy expensive solvers is more tractable than learning to replace them.

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10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Does Text Actually Help? Uncovering and Resolving Text Collapse in Multimodal Time Series Forecasting

作者:
Huu Hiep Nguyen↗Minh Hoang Nguyen↗Dung Nguyen↗Hung Le↗

arXiv:2606.19413v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multimodal time series forecasting, which pairs numerical sequences with domain-relevant textual reports, promises to inject world knowledge into forecasting pipelines. However, we uncover a critical failure mode in existing frameworks that we term text collapse: the text branch converges to a content-independent transformation, contributing negligible discriminative signal regardless of the input description. We argue that text collapse is a consequence of a fundamental asymmetry in time series forecasting: the numerical input is strongly autocorrelated with the output, making the numerical backbone inherently dominant, while the text branch, despite carrying complementary and often critical information, is insufficiently utilized, leading to its systematic underexploitation. To address this, we propose REST-TS (Residual-Exclusive Supervision for Text in Time Series), which turns the asymmetry into a design principle: the numerical backbone produces its own independent numerical forecast, and the text branch is exclusively supervised to predict the structured components of the residual, the prediction gap that numbers cannot explain. Because no numerical pathway can reduce these losses, the text branch must extract genuine content from the input description. Evaluated across diverse real-world domains and backbone architectures, REST-TS achieves state-of-the-art performance and consistently demonstrates greater text-branch utilization than existing frameworks, providing strong empirical evidence that supervising the text branch on the residual compels it to extract genuine content from the input.

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11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Doc-to-Atom: Learning to Compile and Compose Memory Atoms

作者:
Xingjian Diao↗Wenbo Li↗Yashas Malur Saidutta↗Avinash Amballa↗Lazar Valkov↗Srinivas Chappidi↗

Long input sequences are central to document understanding and multi-step reasoning in Large Language Models, yet the quadratic cost of attention makes inference both memory-intensive and slow. Context distillation mitigates this by compressing contextual information into model parameters, and recent work such as Doc-to-LoRA amortizes context distillation into a single forward pass that generates one LoRA adapter per document. However, producing a single monolithic adapter for all queries leads to irrelevant-query interference, limited compositional recall, and poor scalability to long-document reasoning. To address these challenges, we propose Doc-to-Atom (Doc2Atom), a compositional parametric memory framework that decomposes each document into semantically typed knowledge atoms. Each atom is compiled into an independent micro-LoRA adapter and a provenance retrieval key. At inference time, a lightweight query router selects and assembles only the relevant atoms into a query-specific adapter, which is then injected into a frozen base model. The entire system is trained end-to-end through a multi-objective distillation framework. Experiments on six diverse QA benchmarks demonstrate that Doc2Atom outperforms Doc-to-LoRA baselines while reducing the memory cost of document internalization.

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12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

DiffCoord: Differentiable Coordination for Distributed Multi-Agent Trajectory Optimization

作者:
Bingheng Wang↗Yichao Gao↗Tianchen Sun↗Shanker Ajay↗Lin Zhao↗

arXiv:2509.01630v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Integrating the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) with Differential Dynamic Programming (DDP) provides a scalable framework for distributed multi-agent trajectory optimization. In practice, ADMM is typically truncated for computational efficiency, tightly coupling parameters that would otherwise separately govern coordination quality and task performance. In this paper, we propose Differentiable Coordination (DiffCoord), a unified framework that jointly meta-learns these coupled parameters for the truncated ADMM-DDP pipeline. These parameters are generated by agent-wise neural networks for task adaptation, and the same networks are shared among isomorphic agents to enable scalability to varying agent counts. We achieve efficient meta-learning by differentiating the ADMM-DDP pipeline end-to-end. Notably, this yields an auxiliary ADMM-LQR distributed gradient solver that computes and coordinates meta-gradients with respect to these parameters. This solver inherits the computational structure of the pipeline, enabling reuse of key computation results and efficient parallelization over agents and along trajectory horizons. We validate DiffCoord through numerical and physical experiments on a cooperative aerial transport system, where it reconfigures quadrotor formations for safe 6-DoF load manipulation in tight spaces. It adapts robustly to varying team sizes and load dynamics, while reducing per-agent gradient computation time by up to 70% compared with state-of-the-art trajectory-gradient methods.

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13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

MeshPad: Interactive Sketch-Conditioned Artist-Reminiscent Mesh Generation and Editing

作者:
Haoxuan Li↗Ziya Erkoc↗Lei Li↗Daniele Sirigatti↗Vladislav Rosov↗Angela Dai↗Matthias Nie{\ss}ner↗

We introduce MeshPad, a generative approach that creates 3D meshes from sketch inputs. Building on recent advances in artist-reminiscent triangle mesh generation, our approach addresses the need for interactive mesh creation. To this end, we focus on enabling consistent edits by decomposing editing into 'deletion' of regions of a mesh, followed by 'addition' of new mesh geometry. Both operations are invoked by simple user edits of a sketch image, facilitating an iterative content creation process and enabling the construction of complex 3D meshes. Our approach is based on a triangle sequence-based mesh representation, exploiting a large Transformer model for mesh triangle addition and deletion. In order to perform edits interactively, we introduce a vertex-aligned speculative prediction strategy on top of our additive mesh generator. This speculator predicts multiple output tokens corresponding to a vertex, thus significantly reducing the computational cost of inference and accelerating the editing process, making it possible to execute each editing step in only a few seconds. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that MeshPad outperforms state-of-the-art sketch-conditioned mesh generation methods, achieving more than 22% mesh quality improvement in Chamfer distance, and being preferred by 90% of participants in perceptual evaluations.

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14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Fixed-Point Reasoners: Stable and Adaptive Deep Looped Transformers

作者:
Sajad Movahedi↗Vera Milovanovi\'c↗Shlomo Libo Feigin↗Alexander Theus↗Thomas Hofmann↗Valentina Boeva↗T. Konstantin Rusch↗Antonio Orvieto↗

arXiv:2606.18206v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Looped architectures provide an inductive bias toward learning step-by-step procedures for tasks that require compositional reasoning. The number of effective layers reached by looping determines the quality of the solution these models find. Like deep architectures, looped architectures are prone to a signal propagation problem induced by depth as the halting decision is postponed. In this paper, we address this signal propagation issue using pre-norm layers and residual scaling. Building on these architectural modifications, we propose FPRM, a Transformer-based Fixed-Point Reasoning Model that uses fixed-point convergence as an end-to-end halting mechanism in a looped architecture. We show that fixed-point halting allows FPRM to adapt its compute to task difficulty. FPRM is effective on common reasoning benchmarks, namely Sudoku, Maze, state-tracking, and ARC-AGI.

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15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Adapting Self-Supervised Speech Representations for Cross-lingual Dysarthria Detection in Parkinson's Disease

作者:
Abner Hernandez↗Eunjung Yeo↗Kwanghee Choi↗Chin-Jou Li↗Zhengjun Yue↗Rohan Kumar Das↗Jan Rusz↗Mathew Magimai Doss↗Juan Rafael Orozco-Arroyave↗Tom\'as Arias-Vergara↗Andreas Maier↗Elmar N\"oth↗…

The limited availability of dysarthric speech data makes cross-lingual detection an important but challenging problem. A key difficulty is that speech representations often encode language-dependent structure that can confound dysarthria detection. We propose a representation-level language shift (LS) that aligns source-language self-supervised speech representations with the target-language distribution using centroid-based vector adaptation estimated from healthy-control speech. We evaluate the approach on oral DDK recordings from Parkinson's disease speech datasets in Czech, German, and Spanish under both cross-lingual and multilingual settings. LS substantially improves sensitivity and F1 in cross-lingual settings, while yielding smaller but consistent gains in multilingual settings. Representation analysis further shows that LS reduces language identity in the embedding space, supporting the interpretation that LS removes language-dependent structure.

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16.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-18

Daily briefing: The proteins that protect us from deadly mutations

作者:
Flora Graham↗

Proteins that ‘buffer’ the effects of mutations could help to treat diseases such as cancers. Plus, goats can follow human voices and the battle over a key ocean observatory project in the United States. Proteins that ‘buffer’ the effects of mutations could help to treat diseases such as cancers. Plus, goats can follow human voices and the battle over a key ocean observatory project in the United States.

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17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

A Formal Framework for Declarative Agentic AI in Business Process Analysis

作者:
Mohammad Azarijafari↗Luisa Mich↗Michele Missikoff↗

arXiv:2606.15291v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agentic AI opens new opportunities for automating Business Process (BP), enabling autonomous decision-making and dynamic adaptation. However, realising this potential requires BP entities and their interactions to be defined with formal precision. This paper presents a formal framework for Agentic BP analysis through the AGO methodology. AGO captures the modelling perspective in terms of who is acting (Agents), why it is carried out (Goals), and what the relevant entities are (Objects). Grounded in set theory and mathematical logic, we formally define the AGO entity types and their interactions, organising all definitions into a BP Knowledge Base (BPKB). The resulting BPKB supports structured querying, incremental updates, and automatic generation of BP workflows, while ensuring soundness and completeness of the derived paths.

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18.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Counterintuitive problems in discrete probability

作者:
Luca Avena↗Gianmarco Bet↗Bernardo Busoni↗

arXiv:2606.07516v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This manuscript contains a collection of counterintuitive problems in discrete probability, together with detailed solutions. The dataset was constructed as part of a broader research project investigating the capabilities of the latest-generation Large Language Models (LLMs) in solving discrete probability problems, in order to assess whether LLMs tend to make systematic reasoning errors associated with known cognitive biases. The problems collected here are specifically designed to challenge heuristic reasoning strategies that often lead to intuitively appealing but mathematically incorrect conclusions. The dataset combines several types of problems. Some are adapted from classical probabilistic paradoxes and cognitive-bias literature, while others originate from recreational mathematics sources or were developed by ourselves following similar principles. The primary purpose of this document is to provide a transparent and publicly accessible reference for the problems used in our experimental evaluation of language models, as well as providing detailed human-made solutions. At the same time, we believe that this collection may also prove useful for future research on probabilistic reasoning, cognitive biases, and the evaluation of reasoning capabilities in artificial intelligence systems.

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19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Low-Cost High-Order Singular Value Decomposition for Tensor-Based Reconstruction from Sparse Sensor Measurements: Urban Flow and Air-Quality Applications

作者:
Arindam Sengupta↗Paul Jeanney↗Ricardo Vinuesa↗Jose Miguel Perez↗Soledad Le Clainche↗

arXiv:2606.24989v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Urban flow and air-quality simulations generate high-dimensional datasets describing velocity and pollutant transport across multiple spatial, temporal, and physical-variable dimensions. Reconstructing these fields from sparse sensor measurements is a fundamental challenge in environmental monitoring, digital twins, forecasting, and data assimilation. Existing low-cost reconstruction approaches are commonly based on matrix decompositions, which require multidimensional datasets to be flattened into two-dimensional snapshot matrices, thereby discarding important structural information. This work introduces the low-cost High-Order Singular Value Decomposition (lcHOSVD), a novel tensor-based sparse-sensing reconstruction framework for high-dimensional environmental fields. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first methodology that combines sparse sensing and HOSVD for field reconstruction. Unlike matrix-based approaches, lcHOSVD preserves the natural tensor structure of the data, enabling the exploitation of correlations across spatial, temporal, and physical-variable dimensions while substantially reducing the computational requirements of conventional HOSVD. The methodology is applied to urban flow and air-quality datasets, where three-dimensional velocity and pollutant concentration fields are reconstructed using only 1-4% of the available spatial locations. While lcSVD provides larger computational speed-ups, lcHOSVD consistently achieves lower reconstruction errors in configurations characterized by strong multidimensional coupling and heterogeneous dynamics across dimensions. Additional sensor-anisotropy analyses demonstrate that the tensor formulation is significantly more robust to uneven sensor distributions, a common situation in practical environmental monitoring networks.

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20.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-08

GPR15-guided CD8<sup>+</sup> T regulatory cells control intestinal inflammation

作者:
Jing Cui↗

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) causes chronic suffering from gastrointestinal inflammation and dysfunction that can progress to colon cancer1,2. The disease prevalence is increasing and there is an urgent need to better understand its pathogenic mechanisms to improve treatment. We show that GPR15, a G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) expressed in immune cells and previously described as an entry co-factor for human and simian immunodeficiency viruses3, is a marker and homing receptor for a subset of intramucosal GPR15-guided regulatory CD8+ T lymphocytes (CD8+ TIGR). Deleterious GPR15 gene variants in humans cause defective homing of CD8+ TIGR and are associated with severe early-onset IBD. Moreover, CD8+ TIGR cells are reduced in the intestinal mucosa of sporadic IBD patients. In mice, GPR15 deficiency impairs colonic homing of CD8+ TIGR cells, leading to accumulation of inflammatory macrophages and increased susceptibility to colitis. CD8+ TIGR cells potently kill macrophages activated by intestinal damage or disease using Fas ligand (FasL) and TNF-related weak inducer of apoptosis (TWEAK). The identification of CD8+ TIGR cells yields new insights into organ-specific immune regulation and potential therapeutics for IBD.

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21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

A Spectral Phase Diagram for Binary Few-Shot Classification: Intrinsic Dimensionality, Geometric Saturation, and Representational Diagnosis

作者:
Arnav Gupta↗

arXiv:2606.24903v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deciding when to stop collecting labeled examples is a fundamental but undertheorized problem in applied machine learning. The saturation index $S(K) = \operatorname{erank}(\widehat{\Sigma}_W^{(K)}) / K$ measures the ratio of the effective rank of the pooled within-class sample covariance to the shot count; we prove it falls below a threshold precisely when the covariance estimator is well-concentrated around the population covariance and the linear discriminant has stabilized. The index is computable in $O(d^3)$ time from support features alone, requiring no test labels or trained classifier. Evaluated across $N = 246$ doubling-pair observations from seventeen binary tasks and six datasets, sixteen of seventeen tasks have a positive within-task Spearman correlation between $S(K)$ and marginal accuracy gain (median $\rho = 0.811$). The pooled Spearman correlation is $\rho = 0.548$ ($p = 1.1 \times 10^{-20}$, $N = 246$). A three-phase diagram (exploration, transition, saturation) with mean marginal gains of $3.48\%$, $2.40\%$, and $0.82\%$ is supported by all pairwise significance tests ($p \leq 0.008$). As a binary stopping rule, the index achieves AUC $= 0.752$, providing meaningful probabilistic guidance for annotation decisions. Asymptotic effective rank and peak accuracy show no significant monotone relationship across tasks (Spearman $r_s = 0.380$, $p = 0.133$, $N = 17$). A small saturation index paired with low accuracy diagnoses representational inadequacy. All results are for binary classification with a fixed linear classifier; extensions to $N$-way settings and pretrained backbone representations are discussed as future work.

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22.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

SFT Overtraining Predicts Rank Inversion via Entropy Collapse Under RLVR

作者:
Siddharth Aphale↗Kelly Liu↗

The standard heuristic of selecting the SFT checkpoint with the highest pass@1 for GRPO can fail when SFT compresses the rollout distribution. For binary rewards, the expected within group advantage variance is $p(1{-}p)(g{-}1)/g$; when early GRPO drives $p$ below $p^*(g)$, most groups have identical rewards and provide no group relative signal. We study SFT depth ladders for Qwen2.5-Coder-3B and DeepSeek-Coder-6.7B. We test Qwen2.5-Coder-3B across five depths and three seeds, and DeepSeek-Coder-6.7B across four matched depths and three seeds. On Qwen, pre RL pass@1 rises with SFT depth, but peak GRPO pass@10 falls from $0.806$ to $0.481$ (3 seed mean, $n{=}20$); pre RL entropy is positively associated with the GRPO outcome ($\rho{=}{+}0.69$). On DeepSeek, pass@1 remains far above $p^*(8){=}0.083$, and GRPO outcomes compress rather than invert. A two stage diagnostic, combining pre RL entropy triage with an early GRPO entropy monitor, flags high risk checkpoints and can stop failing runs early. Simple KL to reference regularisation and label smoothing variants do not rescue the collapsed Qwen checkpoint in our setting, suggesting the failure is not a trivial GRPO hyperparameter artefact.

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23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

MSPL: Multi-Step Pseudo-Labeling for Open-Vocabulary Object Detection

作者:
Hojun Choi↗Youngsun Lim↗Jaeyo Shin↗Hyunjung Shim↗

Open-vocabulary object detection (OVD) aims to recognize and localize object categories beyond the training set. Recent approaches leverage vision-language models to generate pseudo-labels using image-text alignment, allowing detectors to generalize to unseen classes without explicit supervision. However, these methods depend heavily on single-step image-text matching, neglecting the intermediate reasoning steps crucial for interpreting semantically complex visual contexts, such as crowding or occlusion. In this paper, we introduce MSPL, a framework that incorporates multi-step visual reasoning into the pseudo-labeling process for OVD. It decomposes complex scene understanding into three interpretable steps-object localization, category recognition, and background grounding-where these intermediate reasoning states serve as rich supervision sources. Extensive experiments on standard OVD evaluation protocols demonstrate that MSPL achieves state-of-the-art performance with superior pseudo-labeling efficiency, outperforming the strong baseline by 9.4 AP50 for novel classes on OV-COCO and improving box and mask APr by 3.2 and 2.2, respectively, on OV-LVIS. Code and models are available at https://github.com/hchoi256/mspl.

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24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Information bottleneck for learning the phase space of dynamics from high-dimensional experimental data

作者:
K. Michael Martini↗Eslam Abdelaleem↗Paarth Gulati↗Ilya Nemenman↗

arXiv:2604.24662v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Identifying the dynamical state variables of a system from high-dimensional observations is a central problem across physical sciences. The challenge is that the state variables are not directly observable and must be inferred from raw high-dimensional data without supervision. Here we introduce DySIB (Dynamical Symmetric Information Bottleneck) as a method to learn low-dimensional representations of time-series data by maximizing predictive mutual information between past and future observation windows while penalizing representation complexity. This objective operates entirely in latent space and avoids reconstruction of the observations. We apply DySIB to an experimental video dataset of a physical pendulum, where the underlying state space is known. The method, with hyperparameters of the learning architecture set self-consistently by the data, recovers a two-dimensional representation that matches the dimensionality, topology, and geometry of the pendulum phase space, with the learned coordinates aligning smoothly with the canonical angle and angular velocity. These results demonstrate, on a well-characterized experimental system, that predictive information in latent space can be used to recover interpretable dynamical coordinates directly from high-dimensional data.

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25.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Estimating the effectiveness of syndromic screening at airports for Bundibugyo ebolavirus disease

作者:
Quilty↗B. J↗

We used a stochastic simulation model to estimate the effectiveness of combined exit and entry airport screening for Bundibugyo ebolavirus disease (BVD), using natural-history parameters from a Bayesian re-analysis of the 2012 Isiro outbreak. For a 12-hour international flight from DRC or Uganda at 86% screening sensitivity, we estimate 65% of infected travellers would arrive undetected (95% CrI: 38 - 76%). The main driver of this outcome is the relative duration of the the incubation period (approximately 7.7 days) and the onset-to-severe-disease interval (approximately 4 days): most infected travellers board before symptom onset and are undetectable by any syndromic screen, whilst those who are symptomatic progress rapidly to illness severe enough to preclude travel. This is compounded during active epidemic growth, when recently exposed (and therefore pre-symptomatic) cases are overrepresented among travellers. Syndromic airport screening offers limited protection against BVD spread via air travel, and should be complemented by outbreak control at source and strengthened clinical surveillance in receiving countries with high travel connectivity to affected areas.

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