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01.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Layerwise Terminal Discrepancy in Chen's Reverse-Heat Coupling on the Boolean Cube

arXiv:2606.04573v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recently, Chen [Chen2026] proved that Talagrand's Boolean convolution conjecture holds up to the dimension-free factor \((\log\log\eta)^{3/2}\), namely for every fixed \(\tau>0\), \[ \mu\{P_\tau f>\eta\|f\|_1\} \le C_\tau \frac{(\log\log\eta)^{3/2}}{\eta\sqrt{\log\eta}}, \qquad \eta>e^3. \] We revisit the terminal testing-discrepancy step in Chen's perturbed reverse-heat coupling. Chen estimates this discrepancy globally in terms of the remaining gap to the terminal level. We keep the same coupling and the same reverse-heat formulations, but localize the terminal discrepancy on each remaining-gap layer before summing the layers. This changes the fixed-time anti-concentration cost from order \((\log L)^{3/2}/\sqrt L\) to order \((\log L)/\sqrt L\), where \(L=\log\eta\). Consequently, we obtain a \((\log\log\eta)^{1/2}\) improvement as \[ \mu\{P_\tau f>\eta\|f\|_1\} \le C_\tau \frac{\log\log\eta}{\eta\sqrt{\log\eta}}, \qquad \eta>e^3. \]

02.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-14

FENNEC: Fine-Tuned Ensemble Neural Networks Accelerate Chemically Modified siRNA Design and Screening

Small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) are a clinically validated therapeutic modality, yet designing potent chemically modified siRNAs remains a costly and iterative process, limited by scarce public data. Computational prediction of siRNA efficacy is therefore essential for rational design and accelerated preclinical development. However, despite the critical role of chemical modifications in therapeutic performance, current state-of-the-art machine learning methods either are not designed to model the chemical diversity of therapeutic siRNAs, or exhibit poor generalization performance. Here, we present FENNEC (Fine-Tuned Ensemble of Neural Networks for siRNA Efficiency Characterization), a machine-learning framework for predicting siRNA activity across chemically diverse design spaces. To support this effort, we curated the largest patent-derived dataset to date of chemically modified siRNAs from 42 patents using OCR-based table extraction and stringent filtering. FENNEC combines temporal convolutional networks with thermodynamic descriptors, experimental covariates, and embeddings from RNA foundation models to capture both local chemical determinants and broader target-context information. Importantly, we show that language-model-derived embeddings provide meaningful higher-order representations of target transcripts, particularly in data-scarce settings. FENNEC achieved robust predictive performance across both gene-level and scaffold-level validation settings, with additional experimental validation on a novel AHSA1-targeting dataset further supporting its generalizability across chemically modified siRNAs. In benchmarking, FENNEC outperformed classical machine-learning and state-of-the-art deep learning models, demonstrating generalization to unseen chemistry. Model interpretation recovered established design principles, including position-specific effects of glycol nucleic acid, 2'-fluoro modifications, and phosphorothioate backbones. Furthermore, in silico perturbation analyses suggest that FENNEC can serve not only as a predictive model, but also as an oracle for the design and optimization of chemically modified siRNAs. Together, our work addresses a key gap in the field by enabling chemically aware deep learning for siRNA design, supported by a large and diverse collection of chemically modified siRNA measurements.

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Conditional Attribution for Root Cause Analysis in Time-Series Anomaly Detection

arXiv:2604.17616v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Root cause analysis (RCA) for time-series anomaly detection is critical for the reliable operation of complex real-world systems. Existing explanation methods often rely on unrealistic feature perturbations and ignore temporal and cross-feature dependencies, leading to unreliable attributions. We propose a conditional attribution framework that explains anomalies relative to contextually similar normal system states. Instead of using marginal or randomly sampled baselines, our method retrieves representative normal instances conditioned on the anomalous observation, enabling dependency-preserving and operationally meaningful explanations. To support high-dimensional time-series data, contextual retrieval is performed in learned low-dimensional representations using both variational autoencoder latent spaces and UMAP manifold embeddings. By grounding the retrieval process in the system's learned manifold, this strategy avoids out-of-distribution artifacts and ensures attribution fidelity while maintaining computational efficiency. We further introduce confidence-aware and temporal evaluation metrics for assessing explanation reliability and responsiveness. Experiments on the SWaT and MSDS benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed approach consistently improves root-cause identification accuracy, temporal localization, and robustness across multiple anomaly detection models. These results highlight the practical utility of conditional attribution for explainable anomaly diagnosis in complex time-series systems. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/dfki-av/Conditional-Attribution-for-Root-Cause-Analysis-in-Time-Series-Anomaly-Detection.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

TRACER: Training-Free Closed-Loop Structured Inference for Traffic Accident Reconstruction

arXiv:2606.25002v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Traffic accident reconstruction is a forensic inverse problem that requires recovering physically consistent motion from sparse and heterogeneous evidence. Existing learning-based approaches predominantly optimize for semantic plausibility or visual realism, rather than quantitative agreement with measurable geometry and dynamics. Here, we present TRACER, a training-free framework that formulates reconstruction as a closed-loop structured inference process. Instead of directly generating dense trajectories, our framework constructs and iteratively refines event-anchored motion hypotheses under geometric, kinematic, and interaction constraints, guided by structured case memory and consistency-driven diagnosis. This design enables incremental, interpretable corrections when evidence is insufficient, making the accident reconstruction process more aligned with the workflow of human experts. Experiments on real-world accident data show that TRACER achieves improved geometric fidelity, velocity consistency, and collision accuracy over both data-driven and physics-based baselines.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Density-Informed Pseudo-Counts for Calibrated Evidential Deep Learning

arXiv:2602.01477v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is a popular framework for uncertainty-aware classification that models predictive uncertainty via Dirichlet distributions parameterized by neural networks. Despite its popularity, its theoretical foundations and behavior under distributional shift remain poorly understood. In this work, we provide a principled statistical interpretation by proving that EDL training corresponds to amortized variational inference in a hierarchical Bayesian model with a tempered pseudo-likelihood. This perspective reveals a major drawback: standard EDL conflates epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, leading to systematic overconfidence on out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. To address this, we introduce Density-Informed Pseudo-count EDL (DIP-EDL), a new parametrization that decouples class prediction from the magnitude of uncertainty by separately estimating the conditional label distribution and the marginal covariate density. This separation preserves evidence in high-density regions while shrinking predictions toward a uniform prior for OOD data. Theoretically, we prove that DIP-EDL achieves asymptotic concentration. Empirically, we show that our method enhances interpretability and improves robustness and uncertainty calibration under distributional shift.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

The BD-LSC Dataset: Facilitating the Benchmarking of Models for Lexical Semantic Change Detection in Slang and Standard Usage

Automatic semantic change detection aims to identify how word meanings shift over time, offering insights into both linguistic and societal change. Despite recent progress in computational lexical semantic change (LSC), existing benchmarks and methods struggle to capture bi-directional semantic change, particularly cases where words simultaneously gain and lose senses. This problem is especially challenging for words that have both slang and standard meanings. To address these gaps, we introduce two complementary benchmark datasets. The Bi-Directional Lexical Semantic Change (BD-LSC) dataset captures sense gain, sense loss, and stability across three time periods, enabling the study of complex semantic trajectories. The SlangTrack Word Sense Disambiguation (ST-WSD) dataset provides fine-grained, instance-level sense annotations for words combining slang and standard usages, supporting systematic benchmarking of WSD and semantic change detection models. Using these benchmarks, we systematically evaluate models across different methodological families: unsupervised clustering using contextualised embeddings, supervised machine learning, transformer-based models, and state-of-the-art large language models. Among the evaluated systems, the few-shot GPT-4o model achieved the strongest aggregate performance on Exact Sense Match (ESM) and multi-label accuracy; however, Macro-F1 scores near 0.5 across all systems show that rare slang senses remain difficult, which we identify as the central open challenge.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

SoK: AI Secure Code Generation: Progress, Pitfalls, and Paths Forward

arXiv:2606.25195v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The increasing use of AI systems for code generation raises a central security question: what can today's models and coding agents actually do to produce secure code, where do they still fail, and what would move the field forward? Existing work has explored prompting, fine-tuning, reinforcement learning, and agentic workflows for secure code generation, but the field still lacks a systematic understanding of how these techniques improve security and why substantial failures persist. In this SoK, we systematize the progress, pitfalls, and paths forward for AI secure code generation. We introduce a three-level framework that measures models' natural-language understanding of secure coding principles, their code-level actuation of those principles during generation, and the knowledge–actuation gaps between the two. We instantiate this framework across models and coding agents on benchmarks covering both isolated function-level security and full web-application security. Our results show that secure-coding-principle understanding is a statistically strong predictor of code-level outcomes, including functional correctness, security, and joint functional-security correctness. Yet substantial knowledge–actuation gaps remain: models can recognize relevant security principles but still fail to translate them into secure and functional code. These findings offer a principle-centered account of where AI secure code generation stands today and identify concrete paths forward through principle-guided generation, evaluation, benchmarking, and agentic workflows.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Natural Ungrokking: Asymmetric Control of Which Rules Survive Pretraining

Midway through an ordinary pretraining run, a small language model learns the pronoun-gender rule: cued with a girl's name ("Sue cried because"), it resolves the next pronoun to she, generalizing to held-out probes (0.94 by step 925). By step 3,500 the same model scores near zero on the same probes, although the rule's evidence is still in the training data. We call this within-run reversal natural ungrokking: the corpus decides, with no trace in the loss curve, which learned rules a model keeps. Which rules survive is predictable from one corpus statistic: how often the training stream shows the rule winning. Across un-intervened runs (two corpora, three budgets, three seeds), support frequency decides a rule's fate; the data-to-parameter ratio only modulates how deeply a doomed rule falls. The same emerge-then-collapse dynamics appear in public Pythia checkpoints, collapse depth ordered by model scale as predicted. The forgetting is a displacement: a competing surface pattern out-competes the rule, and the log-probability margin between them crosses zero within 100 training steps of the behavioral collapse. Control over this fate is asymmetric: the same edit that destroys a rule on demand cannot restore it. Flipping support to counter-evidence in place kills the rule with monotone dose-response in two unrelated rules; but injecting support back, even to 450 times the level that naturally sustains it, buys no recovery. Every confirmatory threshold and prediction was pre-registered before the data it governed was read.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Neural Additive and Basis Models with Feature Selection and Interactions

arXiv:2606.19850v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep neural networks (DNNs) exhibit attractive performance in various fields but often suffer from low interpretability. The neural additive model (NAM) and its variant called the neural basis model (NBM) use neural networks (NNs) as nonlinear shape functions in generalized additive models (GAMs). Both models are highly interpretable and exhibit good performance and flexibility for NN training. NAM and NBM can provide and visualize the contribution of each feature to the prediction owing to GAM-based architectures. However, when using two-input NNs to consider feature interactions or when applying them to high-dimensional datasets, training NAM and NBM becomes intractable due to the increase in the computational resources required. This paper proposes incorporating the feature selection mechanism into NAM and NBM to resolve computational bottlenecks. We introduce the feature selection layer in both models and update the selection weights during training. Our method is simple and can reduce computational costs and model sizes compared to vanilla NAM and NBM. In addition, it enables us to use two-input NNs even in high-dimensional datasets and capture feature interactions. We demonstrate that the proposed models are computationally efficient compared to vanilla NAM and NBM, and they exhibit better or comparable performance with state-of-the-art GAMs.

10.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Proteomics Uncovers Cryptic JPH2 Loss in Paediatric Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Despite recent advances in next-generation sequencing, genetic diagnostic rates for dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) remain low. Among paediatric DCM, causes are often heritable, with a greater frequency of de novo, recessive and syndromic causes of disease. Novel diagnostic methods are therefore required to solve monogenic cases. To assess the value of proteomics as a diagnostic tool for paediatric DCM, we obtained left ventricle myocardial samples from paediatric patients undergoing heart transplantation at the Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne. We performed genome sequencing and proteomics and leveraged this multi-omics dataset to uncover the molecular cause of disease in a gene elusive proband. The proband carried a heterozygous JPH2 frameshift variant identified on clinical exome sequencing. However, proteomic analysis showed a pronounced downregulation of JPH2, suggestive of biallelic loss-of-function. Closer inspection of the genomic data revealed a large inversion (~8.34 Mb) with a breakpoint falling within intron 5 of JPH2 that displaces the 3'UTR from the coding transcript. The two variants were confirmed to be in trans using long read DNA sequencing, consistent with a diagnosis of JPH2 autosomal recessive DCM. Finally, we applied RNA sequencing with total RNA library preparation to show that transcripts containing a 3'UTR were reduced to ~10% relative to controls. As a proof-of-principle, we present the first reported use of proteomics from explanted cardiac tissue to provide a genetic diagnosis. Our methodology has broad relevance to patients with genetically unsolved Mendelian diseases, who might undergo organ transplantation as part of clinical management.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

EveLoad: Cognitive Workload Recognition from Event-Based Eye Movements

arXiv:2606.25177v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Cognitive workload monitoring is important for adaptive rehabilitation and assistive interfaces, where task difficulty, pacing, and feedback should be adjusted according to the user's cognitive state to avoid overload and under-challenge. Emerging extended reality and robot-assisted rehabilitation environments provide controllable training tasks, but they require unobtrusive sensing methods that can capture rapid ocular dynamics during interaction. Existing eye-movement-based cognitive workload recognition methods mainly rely on frame-based eye trackers, which often suffer from limited temporal resolution and degraded robustness under rapid eye movements. In contrast, event cameras provide microsecond-level temporal resolution, high dynamic range and low latency, making them suitable for capturing fine-grained ocular dynamics. Many previous studies rely on free-viewing or similar paradigms, where gaze locations can vary across tasks. As a result, models may learn associations between gaze-location distributions and cognitive workload, rather than workload-related eye movement characteristics themselves. In this work, we introduce EveLoad, which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first event-based eye-movement dataset with graded cognitive workload annotations, collected from 20 healthy participants under spatially constrained and task-driven conditions using a controlled N-back-guided fixation paradigm. Based on this dataset, we establish a benchmark for cognitive workload recognition with six workload levels and propose a learning framework that encodes spatiotemporal event representations. Experimental results show that our approach achieves an average subject-specific accuracy of 96.36% and 96.13% under mixed random split evaluation. These results suggest that event-based eye movements may provide a useful sensing pathway for future workload-aware rehabilitation.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Circuit Tracing in Autoregressive Protein Language Models

arXiv:2606.16044v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Protein language models (pLMs) can generate novel protein sequences with properties beyond those observed in nature, yet the mechanisms underlying protein generation remain poorly understood. Existing mechanistic interpretability methods based on sparse autoencoders and transcoders primarily focus on protein representation learning models and do not capture the computation required for autoregressive generation. Here, we introduce ProGenMech, a mechanistic interpretability framework for generative protein language models that extends cross-layer transcoders (CLTs) to ProGen3, a sparse Mixture-of-Experts model trained for both causal generation and span infilling. Unlike per-layer approaches, CLTs reconstruct each layer using sparse latent variables from all preceding layers, enabling faithful recovery of inter-layer generative computation. We further develop a zero-shot circuit discovery framework to identify sparse latent circuits responsible for protein generation and fitness prediction. In causal generation and zero-shot fitness estimation tasks, ProGenMech outperforms local transcoder baselines in recovering ProGen3's probability distribution and functional scoring behavior, while matching the original model's generative distribution in span infilling tasks. Moreover, the recovered circuits reveal biologically meaningful motifs and functional regions associated with conserved sequence patterns and protein fitness landscapes, establishing a foundation for interpretable and steerable protein generation.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Evaluating Open-Source LLMs for Multi-Label ATT&CK Technique Classification on CTI Reports

arXiv:2606.18166v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Classifying Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) using MITRE Adversarial Tactics, Techniques, and Common Knowledge (ATT&CK) is essential for proactive defense, but historically required extensive human effort. Pre-Large Language Model (LLM) automation sped up this process, but could not resolve the complex language and multi-step attack patterns found in unstructured CTI reports. LLMs addressed previous limitations by using contextual reasoning to understand unstructured text. However, current evaluations rely on simplified, single-technique sentences that ignore the complexity of real-world CTI reports, which often leads to inflated performance results. Consequently, the baseline performance of open-source LLMs on complex unstructured CTI reports remains unevaluated. To address this gap, we constructed a ground-truth dataset of 2,076 human-annotated sentences (1,281 technique-positive, 795 negative) from 83 complex unstructured CTI reports. These sentences were mapped to 114 unique ATT&CK techniques using a six-phase annotation process, achieving \k{appa} = 0.68 inter-annotator agreement. Using this dataset, we evaluated seven open-source LLMs ranging from 8B to 236B parameters across prompt strategy and temperature configurations. The highest-performing LLM achieved a micro-averaged F1 score of 0.22, establishing the empirical baseline for multi-label ATT&CK classification on complex unstructured CTI. Parameter size showed a statistically significant positive correlation with F1 score. Prompt strategy and temperature produced no statistically significant gains across model configurations. These results indicate that current open-source LLMs are insufficient for production-grade ATT&CK classification. The dataset, benchmark, and findings provide a reproducible foundation for future CTI research.

14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Agentic Symbolic Search: Characterizing PDEs Beyond Hand-crafted Expressions, Meshes, and Neural Networks

arXiv:2606.20467v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mathematicians understand a PDE solution through mathematical structures rather than tables of computed values. Historically, this has been the product of mathematical analysis, carried out by hand for each problem individually. Neither numerical simulation nor neural networks produce those structures directly. We propose Agentic Symbolic Search (ASYS), a prior-guided framework in which an agent translates PDE theory, public problem constraints, and accumulated search experience into testable differentiable symbolic programs. The mathematical forms are refined under evolutionary search, while their continuous parameters are fit by gradient-based optimization. This makes the search an automated form of inductive-bias injection rather than blind symbolic regression. For problems with known analytical forms, ASYS recovers these forms naturally; for other problems, ASYS constructs analytical approximations which can guide mathematicians toward further analysis. In our experiments, across five problems spanning bounded dynamics, finite-time blow-up, and free-boundary focusing, ASYS produces interpretable representations, including a geometric interface formula for Allen-Cahn 2D dynamics and a nine-parameter contraction law for Keller-Segel chemotactic blow-up, in settings where no closed-form description was previously available. ASYS shows the possibility of a new paradigm for characterizing PDE solutions, beyond handcrafted analytical solutions, mesh-based numerical solutions, and neural network approximations.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Analyzing the Narration Gap in LLM-Solver Loops

arXiv:2606.19588v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Formal tools such as SAT and SMT solvers are increasingly embedded in language model reasoning pipelines when a safety or security critical question can be formulated in logic. Unlike chain of thought whose steps are sampled from the model distribution without formal guarantee, a solver produces a sound and independently verifiable answer. However, the soundness guarantee can be lost in the interaction between the solver and the model. The hybrid pipeline has three components: formalizing the question, deciding it, and narrating the result. Prior work has studied the formalization and decision, but not narration, which is the step that turns a formal tool's output into the user answer. To fill the narration gap, we first model the LLM-solver loop as a verified decision procedure. We further evaluate five open-sourced models under prompt injection, and we find certificate gating makes the solver verdict sound, while an adversary can invert a verified conclusion across phrasings and channels. We study the mitigation through hardened prompt that reduces injection significantly but cannot eliminate it and still suffers under adaptive attack. Combining the formal analysis and empirical studies, we show in the LLM-solver loop, robustness does not reach to the answer that the user finally reads.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Learning Topological Representations for Molecular Dynamics

arXiv:2606.14737v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations generate trajectories in a high-dimensional configuration space whose analysis critically depends on molecular descriptors, typically handcrafted observables or learned kinetic embeddings. Designing descriptors that are both expressive and broadly applicable, however, remains challenging. We study persistent homology (PH) as a general-purpose representation for MD and introduce the masked Flood complex, a protein-tailored modification of a recently introduced simplicial complex construction that emphasizes inter-residue structure at low computational cost. Vectorized persistence diagrams then provide information-rich, geometry-aware summaries of protein conformations, which we evaluate on protein class prediction, frame-level observable regression, and Markov state model (MSM) estimation from learned low-dimensional coordinates in a single shared representation space. Results on the mdCATH dataset show that PH-based descriptors are competitive across tasks, with masked Flood PH yielding the most consistent overall performance. Further, when using topologically-informed MSMs as a drop-in replacement within the recent MarS-FM framework for generative modeling of protein conformations, we obtain consistently better ensemble statistics than MSMs based on physical observables. Finally, we explore the transferability of the generative model to qualitatively different, fast folding, proteins.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

CloudCons: A Comprehensive End-to-End Benchmark for Cloud Resource Consolidation

arXiv:2606.13513v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Driven by conservative over-provisioning to guarantee service reliability, resource utilization in cloud data centers remains at low levels. To mitigate this, the forecast-then-optimize paradigm has emerged to optimize consolidation by anticipating future demands. While emerging time series foundation models promise to enhance this paradigm through zero-shot generalization, existing benchmarks focus solely on prediction error metrics. The actual decision utility of these advanced models remains unverified, rendering their practical value for downstream tasks uncertain. To bridge this gap, we propose CloudCons, a comprehensive end-to-end benchmark designed to evaluate forecasting models within the specific context of cloud resource consolidation. We build high-quality datasets that cover diverse workloads from Huawei Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and Google Borg, capturing distinct service characteristics ranging from synchronized diurnal rhythms to stochastic, pulse-like bursts and high-frequency noise. We conduct an extensive evaluation of statistical, deep learning, and foundation models. Our experiments reveal a pivotal finding: while foundation models demonstrate superior zero-shot forecasting accuracy, this advantage does not inherently translate into better decision utility. Of practical significance, we systematically analyze how the selection of predictive quantiles acts as a critical lever. We provide actionable guidelines for calibrating these selections to balance the trade-off between resource efficiency and service reliability, offering vital insights for real-world deployment decisions.

18.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Cornell Interaction in the Two-body Pauli-Schrödinger-type Equation Framework: The Symplectic Quantum Mechanics Formalism

arXiv:2507.20045v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We investigate the quantum behavior of a quark-antiquark bound system under the influence of a magnetic field within the symplectic formulation of quantum mechanics. Employing a perturbative approach, we obtain the ground and first excited states of the system described by the Cornell potential, which incorporates both confining and non-confining interactions. After performing a Levi-Civita mapping in phase space, we solve the time-independent symplectic Pauli-Schrödinger-type equation and determine the corresponding Wigner function. Special attention is given to the observation of the confinement of the quark-antiquark, that is revealed in the phase space structure. Due to the presence of spin in the Hamiltonian, the results reveal that the magnetic field enhances the non-classicality of the Wigner function, signaling stronger quantum interference and a departure from classical behavior. The experimental mass spectra is used to estimate the intensity of the external field, leading to a value that is in order of the transiet magnetic field measured in non-central heavy-ion collisions at RHIC and LHC.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Is Your Trajectory Displacement Safe in Long-tail?

arXiv:2606.16313v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Long-tail scenarios remain a major bottleneck for autonomous driving evaluation, even as datasets grow by orders of magnitude. Existing evaluation pipelines are rarely human-aligned, safety-aware, verifiable, and explainable at the same time: closed-loop metrics often saturate among strong planners, while unstructured human ratings can be noisy without a carefully designed protocol. We formulate planning evaluation as additional-threat detection: given a planner trajectory and an expert reference, does the planner's displacement introduce new unsafe driving behavior? We propose FluidTest, an evaluation pipeline with three components: a pairwise WebUI protocol for reliable human annotation; a taxonomy of 32 semantic threats with evidence-grounded decision graphs; and a three-agent verification system with reflection for precision and auditability. Experiments on the WOD-E2E dataset show that FluidTest produces consistent labels among trained annotators and identifies additional threats in 65% of Poutine trajectories and 51% of RAP trajectories. These results show that state-of-the-art planners can still exhibit substantial safety-relevant failures despite high Rater Feedback Scores (RFS) and low Average Displacement Error (ADE). Additional details, guidance, and code are available at https://fluidtest.web.app.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Learning from Biased and Costly Data Sources: Minimax-optimal Data Collection under a Budget

arXiv:2602.17894v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data collection is a critical component of modern statistical and machine learning pipelines, particularly when data must be gathered from multiple heterogeneous sources to study a target population of interest. In many use cases, such as medical studies or political polling, different sources incur different sampling costs. Observations often have associated group identities - for example, health markers, demographics, or political affiliations - and the relative composition of these groups may differ substantially, both among the source populations and between sources and target population. In this work, we study multi-source data collection under a fixed budget, focusing on the estimation of population means and group-conditional means. We show that naive data collection strategies (e.g. attempting to "match" the target distribution) or relying on standard estimators (e.g. sample mean) can be highly suboptimal. Instead, we develop a sampling plan which maximizes the effective sample size - the total sample size divided by $D_{\chi^2}(q\mid\mid\overline{p}) + 1$, where $q$ is the target distribution, $\overline{p}$ is the aggregated source distribution, and $D_{\chi^2}$ is the $\chi^2$-divergence. We pair this sampling plan with a classical post-stratification estimator and upper bound its risk. We provide matching lower bounds, establishing that our approach achieves the budgeted minimax optimal risk. Our techniques also extend to prediction problems when minimizing the excess risk, providing a principled approach to multi-source learning with costly and heterogeneous data sources.

21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

ADM-Fusion: Adaptive Deep Multi-Sensor Fusion for Robust Ego-Motion Estimation in Diverse Conditions

Robust multi-sensor fusion is essential for reliable autonomy in diverse and degraded environments, where sensor reliability can fluctuate rapidly. Because different modalities fail in distinct ways, effective fusion should adaptively balance complementary cues rather than rely on fixed weighting. This adaptability is particularly important for ego-motion estimation, since accurate updates depend on the consistent integration of complementary sensor information. We propose ADM-Fusion, an end-to-end deep learning based multi-sensor fusion method designed to adapt to environmental changes and sensor degradation. ADM-Fusion employs an adaptive sensor mixture-of-experts framework with content-aware routing to dynamically assign weights to sensor inputs in real time. The system further incorporates separate translation and rotation branches, coupled through a cross-task attention mechanism to preserve task-specific specialization while enabling information sharing. ADM-Fusion is trained on the CARLA-LOC simulated dataset and subsequently fine-tuned on KITTI real-world data, demonstrating effective simulation-to-real transfer. Experiments show that ADM-Fusion remains robust under degraded conditions while maintaining competitive performance against existing methods.

22.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Beyond the Current Observation: Evaluating Multimodal Large Language Models in Controllable Non-Markov Games

Deploying multimodal foundation models as closed-loop policies increasingly requires conditioning actions on observations that are no longer visible. However, existing benchmarks either expose the full state, conflate hidden-state reconstruction with other agent skills, or test recall only after an episode has ended. We introduce RNG-Bench (Reconstructive Non-Markov Games), a benchmark suite designed to isolate a base model's ability to reconstruct past observations and act on them during multi-step interaction. RNG-Bench includes two complementary games: Matching Pairs, where card identities briefly revealed at specific locations must later be recalled, and 3D Maze, where egocentric views must be integrated into a spatial map. Both games are evaluated under a unified harness with three controlled difficulty axes: grid size, visual pattern, and observation modality. The benchmark further introduces a head-to-head duel protocol to control for instance-level variance and a Memory Gap metric that disentangles forgetting from poor action selection. The hardest configurations require contexts of roughly 128K tokens and 350 image inputs per episode, and remain far from saturated by frontier MLLMs. Memory Gap analysis shows that most residual errors stem from forgetting earlier observations rather than from suboptimal decision making. Finally, fine-tuning Qwen3.5-9B on optimal-policy rollouts and filtered model demonstrations improves performance on RNG-Bench and transfers to existing benchmarks without degrading general multimodal capability.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Personalizing Suicide Risk Assessment: Machine Learning Extraction of Cross-Modal Interactions Between Psychosocial and Demographic Factors in Veterans

Background: Veterans face an elevated risk of suicide compared to the general population, motivating national efforts to develop predictive models that can guide proactive care. Current models used by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) rely primarily on structured electronic health record (EHR) data, though clinical notes contain rich contextual information that can be quantified using natural language processing (NLP) to derive psychosocial variables that may improve risk detection. Machine learning methods, particularly classification and regression trees (CART), can also uncover interactions between clinical and psychosocial variables, enabling identification of patient characteristics that modify suicide risk factors. However, integrating structured and unstructured data presents challenges because NLP features often greatly outnumber traditional clinical variables, potentially biasing interaction discovery. In prior work, we addressed this imbalance by introducing a weighted CART framework that balances structured variables with NLP-derived psychosocial features from semantic lexicons (SEANCE). While effective, semantic approaches summarize language into predefined constructs and may overlook important lexical variation present in clinical narratives. Methods: In this study, we extend that framework by replacing semantic features with a high-dimensional bag-of-words (BoW) representation of clinical notes and by evaluating models across cohorts defined by structured suicide risk stratification (low, medium, high) and varying temporal lookback windows. Using a cohort of 27,241 veterans, we analyzed clinical documentation collected up to 30, 90, or 270 days prior to death (or a matched index date for controls), enabling temporally flexible risk modeling. XGBoost models were trained to balance structured and unstructured features and identify cross-modal interactions between textual and clinical variables. Results: When incorporated into generalized linear models, these interactions improved predictive performance, particularly among low- and medium-risk patients, and substantially reduced the performance gap between interpretable and more complex models. Notably, the BoW representation outperformed our prior semantic index-based approach. Discussion and Conclusions: Together, these findings demonstrate the utility of interpretable NLP methods for uncovering clinically meaningful interactions between psychosocial and demographic factors in suicide risk and establish a strong benchmark for future deep learning approaches aimed at capturing richer contextual and temporal information from clinical narratives.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

MobilityBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Route-Planning Agents in Real-World Mobility Scenarios

arXiv:2602.22638v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Route-planning agents powered by large language models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for supporting everyday human mobility through natural language interaction and tool-mediated decision making. However, systematic evaluation in real-world mobility settings is hindered by diverse routing demands, non-deterministic mapping services, and limited reproducibility. In this study, we introduce MobilityBench, a scalable benchmark for evaluating LLM-based route-planning agents in real-world mobility scenarios. MobilityBench is constructed from large-scale, anonymized real user queries collected from Amap and covers a broad spectrum of route-planning intents across multiple cities worldwide. To enable reproducible, end-to-end evaluation, we design a deterministic API-replay sandbox that eliminates environmental variance from live services. We further propose a multi-dimensional evaluation protocol centered on outcome validity, complemented by assessments of instruction understanding, planning, tool use, and efficiency. Using MobilityBench, we evaluate multiple LLM-based route-planning agents across diverse real-world mobility scenarios and provide an in-depth analysis of their behaviors and performance. Our findings reveal that current models perform competently on Basic information retrieval and Route Planning tasks, yet struggle considerably with Preference-Constrained Route Planning, underscoring significant room for improvement in personalized mobility applications. We publicly release the benchmark data, evaluation toolkit, and documentation at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/MobilityBench.

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arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Is Stochastic Gradient Descent Effective? A PDE Perspective on Machine Learning processes

arXiv:2501.08425v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In this paper we analyze the behaviour of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD), a widely used method in supervised learning for optimizing neural network weights via a minimization of non-convex loss functions. Since the pioneering work of E, Li and Tai (2017), the underlying structure of such processes can be understood via parabolic PDEs of Fokker-Planck type, which are at the core of our analysis. Even if Fokker-Planck equations have a long history and a extensive literature, almost nothing is known when the potential is non-convex or when the diffusion matrix is degenerate, and this is the main difficulty that we face in our analysis. We identify two different regimes: in the initial phase of SGD, the loss function drives the weights to concentrate around the nearest local minimum. We refer to this phase as the drift regime and we provide quantitative estimates on this concentration phenomenon. Next, we introduce the diffusion regime, where stochastic fluctuations help the learning process to escape suboptimal local minima. We analyze the Mean Exit Time (MET) and prove upper and lower bounds of the MET. Finally, we address the asymptotic convergence of SGD, for a non-convex cost function and a degenerate diffusion matrix, that do not allow to use the standard approaches, and require new techniques. For this purpose, we exploit two different methods: duality and entropy methods. We provide new results about the dynamics and effectiveness of SGD, offering a deep connection between stochastic optimization and PDE theory, and some answers and insights to basic questions in the Machine Learning processes: How long does SGD take to escape from a bad minimum? Do neural network parameters converge using SGD? How do parameters evolve in the first stage of training with SGD?