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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

We Need to Rethink Benchmarking in Anomaly Detection

arXiv:2507.15584v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Despite the continuous proposal of new anomaly detection algorithms and extensive benchmarking efforts, progress seems to stagnate, with only minor performance differences between established baselines and new algorithms. In this position paper, we argue that this stagnation is due to limitations in how we evaluate anomaly detection algorithms. In current benchmarks, a trivial algorithm that only checks for extreme values in individual features performs competitively with state-of-the-art deep learning methods, despite failing on simple cases such as anomalies within an annulus of normal points. Moreover, existing benchmarks do not adequately reflect the diversity of anomaly detection applications, making it difficult for practitioners to reliably select algorithms for their applications. Consequently, we need to rethink benchmarking in anomaly detection. In our opinion, anomaly detection should be studied using scenarios that group applications sharing relevant characteristics, defined through a common taxonomy. Benchmarking within scenarios enables scenario-specific choices for preprocessing, metrics, and model selection, clarifying which advances transfer across similar applications and providing practitioners with reliable guidance for their specific contexts.

02.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-24

The mutational landscape of STING-induced immunity

作者:

Stimulator of interferon genes (STING) is an evolutionary conserved immune signalling protein with key roles in host defence, cancer, senescence and inflammation1–3. Downstream of STING, type I interferon, inflammatory cytokine signalling and non-canonical autophagy are governed by a multilayered mechanism integrating ligand-induced structural transitions, protein–protein interactions and coordinated intracellular trafficking4–13. Despite its central role in immunity and relevance as therapeutic target14, the sequence elements that govern STING (in)activation in cells remain incompletely understood. Here we developed a massively parallel assay to systematically chart the sequence-function landscape of STING. Profiling thousands of single amino-acid variants, we identified structural and functional determinants that shape the immunostimulatory capacity of STING and its ability to translate ligand recognition into distinct signalling outputs. Cryogenic-electron microscopy structures of select STING hyperactive variants revealed new regulatory principles dictating conformational transition from inactive to signalling-competent states of STING. Mutational effects are widespread across the functional landscape and can sensitize STING towards the natural ligand 2′3′-cGAMP15–18 or decouple interferon induction from non-canonical autophagy, demonstrating a diversity of possible responses that can be accessed through single point substitutions. Finally, our data showed the clinical and evolutionary relevance of naturally occurring STING protein variants. Collectively, these findings define molecular principles that tune STING activity and chart the landscape of its functional potential across immune contexts. A massively parallel assay systematically charts the sequence-function landscape of the STING signalling protein, and the findings define molecular principles that tune STING activity and show its functional potential across immune contexts.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Searching for Synergy in Shared Workspace Human-AI Collaboration

arXiv:2606.18413v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Automated AI agents are increasingly capable, yet many scientific and professional tasks require human judgment and contextual expertise. We study shared-workspace human-AI teams, where AI agents and human collaborators must coordinate responsibilities before submitting a final answer. Using the Collaborative Gym environment with DiscoveryBench tasks, we examine when adding simulated human collaborators improves performance and when process loss turns additional collaborators into coordination overhead. Across 1,482 sessions, adding relevant collaborators can lower performance when teams lack structure to coordinate their contributions. We then evaluate scaffolding that combines shared group memory with simulated human-in-the-loop (HITL) gates, where selected actions require approval from a designated simulated participant. This scaffolding yields higher mean performance, most clearly in three-person teams, with clearer responsibility signals and stronger routing of expertise to team actions. Overall, how human-AI teams coordinate and integrate expertise matters as much as the capability available to them.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

RetiSEM: Generalising Causal Models for Fragmented Biomedical Data

arXiv:2606.24488v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Learning causal models from fragmented biomedical data is challenging because clinical, molecular, and imaging variables are often incomplete or not jointly observed. We propose RetiSEM, a domain-constrained structural equation modelling (SEM) framework for causal graph recovery and mediation analysis under limited multimodal resources. This proposed work organises variables into biologically informed blocks, applies forbidden-edge constraints, and decomposes pathway-level effects into TE, NDE, and NIE components. We evaluate RetiSEM across ten synthetic benchmark scenarios that vary in dimensionality, nonlinearity, causal depth, and pathway structure, together with a fragmented real-world setting that combines NHANES clinical variables with externally derived retinal representations. This approach achieves lower structural error and higher causal accuracy than unconstrained baselines across the synthetic benchmarks. In the real-data analysis, retinal variables behave mainly as downstream biomarker-like indicators, with smaller but detectable indirect effects. These findings support our strategy as an interpretable framework for testing structured causal hypotheses in limited-resource biomedical AI. The code and resources for this work are publicly available at: https://github.com/Inamullah-Colab/ReitSEM.

05.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-23

biomeStat: Using Agentic AI for Scalable Genomic Epidemiology Demonstrated Through End-to-End Analysis of 1,000 Asian Dengue Virus Genomes

Genomic epidemiology workflows typically require expert curation of multiple specialized tools, extensive manual parameter tuning, and access to heterogeneous compute infrastructure. While standard generative AI models often hallucinate in complex biological domains, we introduce biomeStat: an autonomous AI agent that functions as a strict deterministic orchestrator. By automatically writing code to execute established bioinformatics tools in sandboxed environments, biomeStat dynamically provisions compute resources (CPU and GPU) and guarantees reproducibility, making it immediately useful for scientists without requiring command-line expertise. To demonstrate the platform, we performed a fully autonomous genomic epidemiology and structural analysis of 1,000 Dengue virus (DENV) genomes sampled from 16 Asian countries between 2000 and 2025. The agent seamlessly orchestrated phylogenetic reconstruction (IQ-TREE, TreeTime), Bayesian phylodynamics (BEAST2 via NVIDIA H200 GPU), selection pressure analysis (HyPhy), and structural mapping (PyMOL). The analysis was completed in under 24 hours of wall-clock time, revealing endemic stability (R_e ~1.0) and identifying 1,869 candidate immune escape sites structurally colocalized with B-cell and T-cell epitopes. Furthermore, the agent validated 176 highly conserved drug target residues across the viral replication complex, confirming that resistance-associated positions for emerging antivirals JNJ-1802 and NITD-688 remain absolutely conserved across all four serotypes. By bridging the gap between natural language intent and deterministic computational execution, biomeStat reduces weeks of expert effort into a single-session analysis with full methodological transparency.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Clusters are All You Need: Pre-Training the Tsetlin Machine with Semantic Clusters from Language Models for Interpretability

Pre-trained language models such as BERT achieve strong text classification performance but lack transparency, limiting their use in high-stakes settings. The Tsetlin Machine (TM) offers fully interpretable, clause-based reasoning but captures little semantic information, and prior attempts to bridge the two rely on static word embeddings that miss contextual meaning. We propose a semantic pre-training framework that transfers knowledge from a pre-trained language model into a TM without using embeddings. Text samples are grouped into semantically coherent clusters with K-means or Top2Vec, and the resulting cluster-sample pairs pre-train a non-negated TM with enhanced Type I feedback. The TM thereby learns interpretable semantic keywords that are fine-tuned on downstream tasks. Across five datasets, our method substantially outperforms vanilla and embedding-based TMs and reaches performance competitive with BERT while remaining interpretable.

07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Decoding Hidden Deception in Reasoning LLMs: Activation Explainers for Deception Auditing

As LLMs acquire stronger reasoning capabilities, deceptive behavior becomes an increasingly serious safety concern. Existing deception monitors either score visible transcripts or derive scalar probe scores from representation vectors, leaving little inspectable evidence about why a response is suspicious. We introduce STATEWITNESS, an activation explainer for deception auditing. A separate decoder reads a target model's hidden states, then answers natural-language queries or emits structured reports about them. We evaluate STATEWITNESS on two target reasoning LLMs across seven deception datasets. STATEWITNESS reaches 0.916 mean AUROC, a relative gain of 11.6% over the best black-box text monitor and 25.0% over the best activation-probe baseline under the same evaluation protocol. When combined with existing monitors, STATEWITNESS reduces missed deceptive examples in simple threshold ensembles. Beyond scalar detection, the decoder returns query-level answers, schema reports, and token- or sentence-level evidence traces for human inspection. We view this interface as a potential building block for broader interpretability and alignment tools.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

TLA-Prover: Verifiable TLA+ Specification Synthesis via Preference-Optimized Low-Rank Adaptation

arXiv:2606.06133v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: TLA+ is a formal specification language for verifying distributed systems and safety-critical protocols. Large language models (LLMs) frequently produce TLA+ specifications that fail the TLC model checker for semantic reasons. Across 25 LLMs, the best public baseline is 26.6% syntactic parse and 8.6% semantic model-check. We present TLA-Prover, a 20-billion-parameter model for TLA+ specification synthesis. Training combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on verified examples with repair-based group-relative policy optimization (GRPO). In the GRPO stage, the model learns to fix its own rejected specifications. We also train a direct preference optimization (DPO) variant from the same SFT checkpoint as an ablation. TLC provides the reward signal directly, with no learned reward model. Four tiers grade each output: Bronze (parses), Silver (no warnings), Gold (passes TLC), and Diamond. To reach Diamond, the model's correctness property is automatically altered in a small way; TLC must then detect a violation. If TLC still passes, the property was always-true and contributes nothing; the output fails Diamond. TLA-Prover reaches 9/30 (i.e. pass@1 = 30%) at both Gold and Diamond on a held-out 30-problem benchmark. This is roughly 3.5x the 8.6% untuned baseline. The DPO variant reaches 20% at Diamond. Gold and Diamond coincide at every checkpoint; this prevents the trivial-property failure mode.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

IoT-Zoo: A Container-Based Framework for Heterogeneous IoT Device Profiles and Reproducible Traffic Capture

arXiv:2606.15653v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The validation of networking and security solutions for the Internet of Things (IoT) requires realistic and reproducible experimental data. However, existing platforms often achieve scalability by replicating a limited set of device types, which restricts profile diversity and fails to capture the heterogeneity of real-world IoT environments. In this paper, we present IoT-Zoo, a container-based testbed designed to support reproducible experimentation through heterogeneous, dataset-driven IoT device profiles. Built upon Containernet, IoT-Zoo automates the deployment of multi-domain scenarios and supports real application protocols such as MQTT and RTSP. The platform provides a single-command interface for environment provisioning and automated traffic capture (PCAP), enabling the generation of consistent traffic baselines and reducing the operational effort required to evaluate networking and security solutions.

10.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

On McDiarmid's Inequality under Dependence via Approximate Tensorization of Entropy

arXiv:2606.12720v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We argue that dependent versions of McDiarmid's inequality are a useful but underutilized tool in mathematical statistics, learning theory and theoretical computer science. To make this point, we first highlight that approximate tensorization of entropy (ATE) implies McDiarmid's via the Entropy Method. Second, we derive McDiarmid's inequality for non-isotropic Gaussian random vectors $X \sim \mathcal N(\mu, \Sigma)$ through ATE with a constant of the order of the condition number of $\Sigma$. We both independently obtain this ATE through a simple application of stochastic localization and also discuss how a more general ATE for the Gibbs sampler due to Ascolani et al., 2026 generalizes McDiarmid's-like concentration to strongly log-concave and log-smooth probability measures. We then apply the resulting concentration inequalities to resolve a question on the concentration of $\operatorname{sign}(X)$ posed by Simone Bombari, investigate Erdős-Rényi graphs under dependence and prove a Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz-type inequality for observations from a joint measure fulfilling ATE and continuous marginal CDFs. For the class of strongly log-concave and log-smooth measures, this result improves upon a prior Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz-type inequality for non-i.i.d. observations due to Bobkov and Götze, 2010, by establishing the expected $1/\sqrt{n}$-rate of convergence under weak dependence instead of $n^{-1/3}$.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Adaptable Method for Crystal Design across Diverse Constraints and Objectives with Pretrained Property Predictors

arXiv:2410.08562v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Advanced crystal design can accelerate materials discovery across applications from photovoltaics to spintronics. Practical design must satisfy multiple properties and physical constraints, yet existing machine-learning-based approaches to such design often depend on large datasets, retraining, or task-specific generators. Here, we show that direct predictor-guided gradient optimization enables data-efficient, constraint-rich crystal design by combining off-the-shelf predictors with site-wise element masks, template initialization, and task-specific losses. In perovskites, it outperformed generative and Bayesian baselines under three targets – band gap, formation energy, and tolerance factor – and two hard constraints. DFT assessment further showed band-gap targeting competitive with a leading generative model despite using predictors trained on roughly one-tenth of the data. By flexibly combining pretrained predictors with application-oriented masks and custom losses, the same framework supported half-metal design. Such modularity could help researchers and engineers translate diverse application requirements directly into optimized candidate crystals with minimal computational cost.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

TokaMark: A Comprehensive Benchmark for MAST Tokamak Plasma Models

arXiv:2602.10132v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Development and operation of commercially viable fusion energy reactors such as tokamaks require accurate predictions of plasma dynamics from sparse, noisy, and incomplete sensors readings. The complexity of the underlying physics and the heterogeneity of experimental data pose formidable challenges for conventional numerical methods, and highlight the promise of modern data-native approaches. A major obstacle in realizing this potential is, however, the lack of curated, openly available datasets and standardized benchmarks. Existing fusion datasets are scarce, fragmented across institutions, facility-specific, and inconsistently annotated, which limits reproducibility and prevents a fair and scalable comparison of AI approaches. In this paper, we introduce TokaMark, a structured benchmark to evaluate AI models on real experimental data collected from the Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST). TokaMark provides a comprehensive suite of tools designed to unify access to multi-modal fusion data and standardize evaluation protocols. The benchmark includes a curated list of 14 tasks spanning a range of physical mechanisms, exploiting a variety of diagnostics and covering multiple operational use cases. A baseline model is provided to facilitate transparent comparison and validation within a unified framework. By establishing a unified benchmark, TokaMark aims to accelerate progress in data-driven AI-based plasma modeling, contributing to the broader goal of achieving sustainable and stable fusion energy. The dataset, benchmark, documentation, and tooling are open-sourced under https://github.com/UKAEA-IBM-STFC-Fusion-FMs/tokamark_baseline.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Invariant Graph Representations for Continuous-Time Dynamic Graphs Under Distribution Shifts

arXiv:2405.19062v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Continuous-Time Dynamic Graphs (CTDGs) enable fine-grained modeling of evolving relational systems. However, most existing CTDG representation learning methods are tailored to in-distribution settings and exhibit limited robustness under out-of-distribution (OOD) shifts. Although recent causal approaches learn invariant representations via interventions, they are primarily designed for static or discrete-time graphs and become computationally prohibitive for CTDGs due to the combinatorial explosion of structural and temporal variations. To address these challenges, we propose CIR, a framework grounded in a novel structural causal model termed the ICCM. To avoid exhaustive interventions, we leverage the Normalized Weighted Geometric Mean (NWGM) to efficiently approximate interventional predictions. We further instantiate ICCM within a practical deep learning architecture that jointly captures invariant structural and temporal patterns through dedicated subgraph extractors, and maintains an environment memory bank to model distributional shifts across evolving contexts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CIR consistently outperforms existing methods under diverse OOD scenarios.

15.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Delayed acceptance sampling with Hamiltonian proposal subchains for random field materials inference

arXiv:2606.14743v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper focuses on accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in Bayesian inverse problems in which forward model evaluations dominate the computational cost. It builds on several established ingredients previously used in related scenarios: delayed acceptance, neural network surrogate models, Hamiltonian proposals, and proposal subchains. The main framework is the delayed-acceptance Metropolis-Hastings algorithm of Christen and Fox (2005). The first-stage proposal distribution is constructed from a subchain of Hamiltonian trajectories targeting the surrogate posterior. For each fixed surrogate model, the Hamiltonian subchain and delayed-acceptance correction define a kernel invariant with respect to the exact posterior. In the present work, the surrogate is updated only during a burn-in phase, after which the production run uses a fixed surrogate model. The sampling framework is implemented in Python using parallel processes. Several chains are generated in parallel and share a single surrogate model trained during burn-in on all collected data. The forward model is treated as a black box; therefore, the application area is broad. However, the main motivation is efficient solution of geotechnical inverse problems with material properties represented by Gaussian random fields. In this study, the sampling framework is applied to a geotechnical inverse problem in which hydraulic conductivity and porosity are modeled as non-stationary Gaussian random fields approximated using truncated Karhunen-Loeve expansions. Based on a precomputation, the truncation dimensions are chosen separately for hydraulic conductivity and porosity. The forward model outputs are pore pressure values at control points and selected observation times. These are compared with in situ pore pressure measurements collected over one year during the Tunnel Sealing Experiment in an underground laboratory in Canada.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

GRASP: Gradient-Aligned Sequential Parameter Transfer for Memory-Efficient Multi-Source Learning

arXiv:2606.14900v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-source transfer learning faces a fundamental scalability bottleneck: existing approaches require either loading all K source models into memory simultaneously during parameter fusion, requiring O(K) memory, or deploying all models at inference time, making production deployment infeasible. We propose GRASP (Gradient-Aligned Sequential Parameter Transfer), which achieves superior knowledge integration while maintaining O(1) memory consumption through three key innovations: (1) sequential processing that merges one source at a time into an evolving target model, (2) parameter-wise gradient alignment that selectively transfers only parameters whose optimization directions align with the target domain, avoiding negative transfer, and (3) iterative fine-tuning that adapts transferred knowledge before integrating the next source. Extensive experiments across three continual learning benchmarks (Yearbook, CLEAR-10, CLEAR-100) spanning 10 to 108-year temporal distribution shifts and four architectures (1.3M to 25.6M parameters) demonstrate that GRASP achieves 93.5% mean accuracy over all datasets and architectures compared to ensemble method's 71.7% accuracy while requiring only constant memory versus K models for standard multi-source fusion. Critically, GRASP's sequential previously merged models and scales to arbitrarily many sources without memory growth, making it uniquely suitable for resource-constrained deployment and continually evolving source domains.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

JustDiag!: A Diagnostic Justification Engine for Accountable Root Cause Analysis

arXiv:2606.19407v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models can produce fluent root cause analyses, but fluent final answers alone are insufficient evidence for accountability in high-stakes operations. In real incident response, engineers need to know what evidence supported a diagnosis, which alternatives were considered, where contradictions remained, and whether the system resolved the case or preserved uncertainty. We address this gap with JustDiag, a diagnostic justification engine for RCA that maintains an explicit process state over evidence, findings, competing hypotheses, conflicts, and next checks. We evaluated the system on 66 real-world incidents using a two-layer protocol that separately scores final-answer quality and process quality. Relative to a matched control without diagnostic justification, JustDiag achieved stronger outcome and process scores, while accepting slightly lower terminal completion due to more calibrated non-closure. These results suggest that accountable RCA requires explicit diagnostic justification artifacts and process-aware evaluation, not only fluent final answers.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Rethinking Shrinkage Bias in LLM FP4 Pretraining: Geometric Origin, Systemic Impact, and UFP4 Recipe

arXiv:2606.20381v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: FP4 training promises substantial reductions in memory and computation cost for LLM pretraining, yet current FP4 hardware paths and recipes, including NVIDIA Blackwell/Rubin-class systems and AMD MI350-series GPUs, remain centered on E2M1 data elements. In this study, we identify a fundamental limitation of that choice: non-uniform formats such as E2M1 inherently suffer from Shrinkage Bias, a systematic negative rounding error caused by the geometric asymmetry of their representable bins. We show that this bias accumulates multiplicatively across layers and is amplified by the Random Hadamard Transform (RHT), providing a unified explanation for the training instability observed in existing E2M1-based FP4 recipes. In contrast, uniform grids (E1M2/INT4) bypass this grid-geometry error and better convert the improved bucket utilization from RHT into higher quantization quality. Based on this finding, we propose UFP4, a uniform 4-bit training recipe that applies RHT to all three training GEMMs while restricting stochastic rounding to dY alone. On Dense 1.5B, MoE 7.9B, and MoE 124B long-run pretraining, UFP4 consistently achieves lower BF16-relative loss degradation than strong E2M1-based baselines, supported by scaling-law analysis and ablation studies. Our results suggest that future accelerators should support E1M2/INT4-style uniform 4-bit grids as first-class training primitives alongside E2M1.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Structured Cognitive Loop for Behavioral Intelligence in Large Language Model Agents (Extended Revision: From Behavioral Architecture to Epistemic Accountability)

作者:

arXiv:2510.05107v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The central challenge for AI agents is not only performance but accountability. Agents that act through opaque prompt sequences may produce correct outputs, but they provide little basis for verifying why an action was permitted, where an error occurred, or how responsibility should be assigned. This paper presents the Structured Cognitive Loop as an architecture for accountable behavior in large language model agents. SCL separates cognition, memory, control, and action into distinct modules. The language model proposes. External memory preserves verified state. A lightweight controller checks preconditions, prevents redundant actions, and authorizes execution before tools are used. We evaluate SCL against ReAct and common LangChain agent variants across travel planning, conditional email drafting, and constraint guided image generation. Across 360 episodes, SCL achieves 86.3 percent task success compared with 70.5 to 76.8 percent for prompt based baselines. It also improves goal fidelity, reduces redundant tool calls, increases reuse of intermediate state, and lowers unsupported assertions. This extended revision situates SCL within a broader architecture of epistemic accountability. Subsequent extensions integrate context aware Human in the Loop control, Pool Gated Retrieval, and the Horizon Warrant Commitment framework. Together these components define an agent architecture in which the model proposes, structure decides, evidence is warranted before use, and human judgment is embedded in the trace rather than imposed after the fact. The result is a foundation for AI agents whose decisions are not only effective but also authorized, inspectable, and accountable.

20.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Concatenating Algebraic Codes over High-Rate Quantum LDPC Codes

arXiv:2605.21898v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Different quantum error correction schemes trade off overhead, error suppression, and hardware connectivity. Code concatenation can relax these tradeoffs by using an outer code whose non-local connectivity is supplied by logical operations of an inner code rather than directly by hardware. Prior works showed that this can reduce memory overhead for local low-rate inner codes such as the surface code. Here, we study concatenation over non-local, high-rate inner codes. Such inner codes experience correlated errors among the many logical qubits in a single codeblock. We handle this by treating each block as a single logical Galois qudit, enabling concatenation with algebraic outer codes with excellent parameters and, crucially, list decoders. In particular, we consider a memory system formed by concatenating quantum Reed-Solomon outer codes over the gross code. For fault-tolerant syndrome extraction, we develop a Galois qudit Shor scheme using "time-like" Reed-Solomon protection against measurement errors. Interestingly, a lightweight fault tolerance scheme, that would fail for qubits, works well for large-alphabet qudits, suggesting a very different theory of fault tolerance for such qudits. The whole protocol is optimised via improved bicycle instruction logical error rates, novel compilation strategies, and recent decoder post-selection rules. At uniform $10^{-3}$ physical noise, the concatenated gross code reaches the teraquop regime, which it previously could not access, with a lower space overhead than the $288$-qubit two-gross code, while offering several advantages from the engineering standpoint. Beyond our main case study, we believe the core ideas of Galois qudits, quantum Reed-Solomon outer codes, and list decoding, will prove generically powerful and highly transferable ideas across high-rate quantum architectures.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Everywhere Valid Bounds on False Discovery Proportions in Conformal Inference

arXiv:2605.20726v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Modern applications of conformal inference to multiple testing problems, such as outlier detection and candidate selection, often involve selecting test samples whose conformal p-values fall below a threshold. The quality of such methods is often measured by the false discovery proportion (FDP), defined as the fraction of incorrect selections. Existing approaches typically control the expected value of the FDP, using methods such as the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. This approach fails to provide high-probability bounds on the realized false discovery proportion and invalidates statistical guarantees if the rejection threshold is selected after inspecting the data. This paper establishes finite-sample, distribution-free upper bounds on the FDP that hold simultaneously over all possible rejection thresholds, enabling arbitrary post hoc selection of the threshold. Simultaneous validity is achieved by constructing a high-probability envelope for the empirical distribution function of null conformal p-values by sampling from their joint distribution. Furthermore, our framework allows practitioners to modulate the envelope's shape, thereby producing tight bounds in rejection regions of primary interest. We use this flexible approach to derive simultaneous FDP upper bounds for both outlier detection and conformal selection. We demonstrate through synthetic and real-data experiments that the resulting bounds are both valid and substantially less conservative than those derived from existing approaches.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

DataMagic: Transforming Tabular Data into Data Insight Video

arXiv:2606.20388v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data videos integrate dynamic charts, voice narration, and synchronized animations to communicate data insights as temporal narratives, making them an effective medium for improving data consumption efficiency in the data management lifecycle. However, producing high-quality data videos requires expertise spanning data analysis, narrative design, and video production. Existing approaches fall short: static visualization tools (e.g., BI dashboards) lack narrative logic and animation; authoring tools require users to pre-prepare visualizations rather than working from raw data; pixel-level video generation models cannot guarantee data fidelity or provenance. We demonstrate DataMagic, an end-to-end interactive system that transforms raw tabular data and natural language queries into narrative data-insight videos. To ensure data fidelity, DataMagic introduces the declarative specification DVSpec, which binds visual and animation elements to underlying data fields through data-driven semantic references. To address the combinatorial explosion of the design space, DataMagic adopts a Generate-then-Orchestrate multi-agent architecture that generates candidate scenes in parallel and then optimizes narrative coherence through global orchestration. Leveraging DVSpec's decoupling of logic and rendering, the system further supports three interaction modes and structured provenance-based data Q&A, transforming one-way videos into explorable interactive data interfaces. Evaluation on 109 real-world samples validates the effectiveness of the DataMagic. Homepage: https://datamagic-home.github.io/

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Generative models for decision-making under distributional shift

arXiv:2604.04342v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Many data-driven decision problems are formulated using a nominal distribution estimated from historical data, while performance is ultimately determined by a deployment distribution that may be shifted, context-dependent, partially observed, or stress-induced. This tutorial presents modern generative models, particularly flow- and score-based methods, as mathematical tools for constructing decision-relevant distributions. From an operations research perspective, their primary value lies not in unconstrained sample synthesis but in representing and transforming distributions through transport maps, velocity fields, score fields, and guided stochastic dynamics. We present a unified framework based on pushforward maps, continuity, Fokker-Planck equations, Wasserstein geometry, and optimization in probability space. Within this framework, generative models can be used to learn nominal uncertainty, construct stressed or least-favorable distributions for robustness, and produce conditional or posterior distributions under side information and partial observation. We also highlight representative theoretical guarantees, including forward-reverse convergence for iterative flow models, first-order minimax analysis in transport-map space, and error-transfer bounds for posterior sampling with generative priors. The tutorial provides a principled introduction to using generative models for scenario generation, robust decision-making, uncertainty quantification, and related problems under distributional shift.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Market Design for AI: Beyond the Copyright Binary

arXiv:2606.12260v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: How can we design a market of human-generated content for use in training AI models that both enables technological progress and preserves individual incentives for high-quality content creation? Existing approaches take polar positions: a "free-for-all" model based on fair use and a "strong intellectual property rights" model. We show that both fail: Free-for-all does not compensate creators, and – by modeling as a static Stackelberg game – strong intellectual property rights also underpower creative incentives. We find this especially true for more innovative creators, a phenomenon we term the "originality penalty." Extending this insight to a dynamic model, we find another market failure undermining AI model performance, even for an initially good model: Such a model induces greater reliance by humans on AI-assisted creation, resulting in homogenized content feeding back into training, which degrades the model performance – a "curse of precision." We further propose a market design with a data intermediary internalizing cross-creator externalities and subsidizing innovative contributions, thereby restoring efficiency.

25.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-18

Ten simple rules for turning your qualifying exam into an NIH-style fellowship proposal: A guide for graduate students

by Courtney Peña-Lima, Cameron S. Bader, Brendan K. Ball, Troy C. Dildine, Mekhala V. Dissanayake, Iris van ‘t Erve, Albina Ibrayeva, Amy Nippert, M.K. Quinn, Chelse Spinner, Samuel Thompson, Antonio Tomasso, Crystal M. Botham Qualifying exams, often referred to as “quals” or candidacy exams, are an important milestone in doctoral programs. Although the style of quals varies greatly by program and institution, it is usually a proposal that requires students to develop research ideas as well as their scientific writing skills. Many quals are modeled after funding mechanisms that graduate students can apply to and on a topic that the student will pursue in their dissertation. This paper offers graduate students a step-by-step guide on how to turn their quals into a fellowship-style research proposal, using National Institutes of Health (NIH) mechanisms as a benchmark, as this is the norm within US research institutions. This paper will be most useful for students who have completed or are in the process of completing proposal-based qualifying exams, usually in the second year of a doctoral program.