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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Amnesia: A Stealthy Replay Attack on Continual Learning Dreams

Continual learning (CL) models often use experience replay to reduce catastrophic forgetting, but their robustness to replay sampling interference remains underexplored. Existing CL attacks alter inputs or training pipelines (poisoning/backdoors) and rarely include explicit auditable constraints, limiting realism. Here, auditability means a monitor can verify compliance from sampler-visible telemetry - e.g., logged replay index/label statistics - by checking that the realized replay class histogram stays close to a nominal baseline and that replay rate is unchanged per batch and/or over a rolling window. We study a limited-privilege insider who controls only replay index selection, not pixels, labels, or model parameters, while staying within auditable limits such as queue priorities. We introduce Amnesia, a replay composition attack that maximizes degradation under two budgets: a visibility budget delta bounding the TV/KL divergence from a nominal class histogram p0, and a mass budget f fixing the replay rate. Amnesia has two steps: (i) compute lightweight class utilities, such as EMA loss or confidence, to tilt p0 toward harmful classes; and (ii) project the tilt back into the delta-ball using efficient KL (exponential tilt) or TV (balanced mass redistribution) optimizers. A windowed scheduler enforces rolling audits. Across challenging CL benchmarks and strong replay baselines, Amnesia consistently lowers final accuracy (ACC) and worsens backward transfer (-BWT). The KL variant delivers high impact while remaining largely undetected under multiple audit schemes, including per-batch and rolling-window checks. The TV variant is more damaging but easier to detect, especially under tight per-class constraints. These results expose index-only replay control as a practical, auditable threat surface in CL systems and establish a principled impact-visibility trade-off.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

SSH-Net: A Deep Neural Network for Predicting Failure Time Distribution Functions under Competing Risks with Application to GPU Data

arXiv:2606.20451v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Competing risks are commonly observed in engineering fields and can bring challenges to time-to-event data modeling when the application scenarios are complicated. Recently, deep neural networks have received great attention for prediction with competing risks, due to their flexibility and high learning capability. However, the complexity of neural network structure brings extra difficulty in hyperparameter tuning based on different data inputs. Additionally, when an engineered system has complex physical structures with multiple hierarchical levels, treating all structural levels as a single group of inputs may fail to capture critical information. To address the issues, we propose a Structured Segmented Hazard Deep Neural Network (SSH-Net) for failure time prediction under cause-specific competing risks framework. Our approach associates neural network structure with data structures, and allows different covariate groups to impact the failure prediction through separate sub-networks. The neural network is constructed based on a cause-specific competing risks model. The SSH-Net outputs cause-specific hazard functions, and utilizes the penalized log-likelihood as the loss function. The prediction accuracy of SSH-Net is validated through simulation studies by evaluating the Brier score, the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), and the root mean square error (RMSE) of the predicted cause-specific cumulative incident function. We further demonstrate the model's ability to predict failure time distribution functions using the Titan GPU failure time data.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Graph-Based Phonetic Error Correction of Noisy ASR

Automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems, despite low overall word error rates, produce residual lexical errors that disproportionately affect semantically critical tokens such as named entities, negations, and sentiment-bearing words. These errors are often structured, arising from phonetic similarity rather than random noise, making naive token-level correction insufficient. We propose a structured ASR correction framework, that we call G-SPIN, that combines phonetic graph modeling with contextual language understanding. A graph neural network (GNN) first constructs acoustically plausible candidate neighborhoods for flagged tokens, explicitly restricting the correction search space to phonetic alternatives. A masked language model (MLM) then provides local contextual scoring, and an instruction-tuned large language model (LLM) performs final context-aware re-ranking over this compact candidate set. By decoupling structured phonetic reasoning from contextual semantic selection, our method avoids unconstrained generation while improving correction accuracy. The framework is lightweight, modular, and operates entirely at inference time.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

A Solver-Free Training Method for Predict-then-Optimize

arXiv:2606.19587v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a scalable method for training prediction (machine learning) models in the predict-then-optimize paradigm, where model outputs serve as coefficients for a subsequent linear optimization task. Directly minimizing the empirical decision regret is intractable for linear programming and combinatorial optimization since the decision mapping is piecewise constant, and the gradients are zero almost everywhere. While existing methods address this by smoothing the differentiation process, they suffer from scalability issues, since a computationally expensive solver call is required for every gradient evaluation. To address this, we propose a decision-focused learning pipeline based on a measure transformation principle, which yields a new surrogate loss that is completely optimization-solver-free during training. We establish theoretical guarantees, including Fisher consistency and excess risk bounds. Empirically, our method achieves decision quality competitive with state-of-the-art methods while reducing training time by orders of magnitude.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Nonlocal Bayesian Modeling of Continuous Spatio-Temporal Dynamics

arXiv:2606.14313v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Real-world spatio-temporal forecasting must handle irregular time points, spatially sparse observations, and the need for uncertainty quantification. This setting is often further compounded by nonlocal interactions (long-range spatial coupling). Modeling continuous-space, continuous-time nonlocal dynamics naturally leads to infinite-dimensional integro-differential equations (IDEs), making principled Bayesian inference intractable. We propose the NonLocal Bayesian Spatio-Temporal model (NLBST), a hierarchical Bayesian framework for continuous spatio-temporal fields that learns explicit nonlocal coupling while retaining tractable inference. NLBST represents the latent field via a coordinate-based spatial basis expansion and models the coefficient process with a continuous-time ODE whose learnable linear operator corresponds to a Galerkin reduction of a nonlocal IDE; a Neural ODE residual captures additional nonlinear dynamics. A linear-Gaussian observation model enables Kalman-style sequential updates under missing and irregular observations, while the spatial basis representation enables inductive prediction at unmeasured locations without retraining. Global parameters are learned via variational inference, and uncertainty is handled through a Bayesian hierarchy. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate strong forecasting and spatial generalization with well-calibrated uncertainty, yielding substantial gains over baselines in strongly nonlocal and partially observed regimes.

06.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-25

Invariant Measures of Lévy-driven Stochastic Differential Equations

arXiv:2606.25336v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the structure and regularity of (infinitesimally) invariant measures of the solutions to stochastic differential equations $dX_t = b(X_t)\,dt + dZ_t$, where $(Z_t)_{t\geq 0}$ is a Lévy process. We show, in particular, that the invariant measure has to satisfy a Volterra-type convolution equation; since we can obtain the kernels explicitly, we are able to apply regularity methods from harmonic analysis. As an application, we get a very short proof – in any dimension – of a classic result due to Sato and Yamazato on the form of the invariant measure of a generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process.

07.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Stochastic dominations for FK percolation and sharp thinning thresholds for the Ising energy field

arXiv:2606.13648v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: At first glance, one would imagine that the energy field of the Ising model, the set of edges whose endpoints share the same spin, is stochastically monotone as a function of the coupling constants. However, this is not generally the case. In this paper, we introduce two weaker notions of stochastic domination that make this result true: $p$–weak and $p$–weak$^\dagger$ domination. Both of these notions depend on a parameter $p$ and we find the optimal values $p$ and $p^\dagger$ so that these dominations hold. One of the key ingredient to obtain some of the results is a new stochastic domination relating FK percolations with different parameters $q,\tilde{q}\geq 1$ that is of independent interest.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

GEMSS: A Variational Bayesian Method for Discovering Multiple Sparse Solutions in Classification and Regression Problems

arXiv:2602.08913v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: High-dimensional, underdetermined and highly correlated systems are common in data science practice, especially when analyzing physical measurements. In such settings, feature selection poses a fundamental challenge because multiple distinct sparse subsets may explain the response equally well. Their identification is crucial not only for predictive modeling but also for generating domain-specific insights into the underlying mechanisms. Yet, conventional methods typically isolate a single solution, obscuring the full spectrum of plausible explanations. This work introduces GEMSS (Gaussian Ensemble for Multiple Sparse Solutions), a variational algorithm designed to simultaneously discover multiple, diverse sparse feature combinations. The method employs a structured spike-and-slab prior for sparsity, a mixture of Gaussians to approximate the intractable multimodal posterior, and a Jaccard-based penalty to further control solution diversity. A single objective function is optimized via stochastic gradient descent. The method is tested on 128 comprehensive experiments by a novel benchmarking framework designed to generate artificial problems with multiple sparse solutions of equal predictive properties. This allows us to measure the retrieval of ground truth features rather than only evaluating predictive performance – characteristics more fitting to our practical needs. A comparative analysis shows that GEMSS consistently outperforms five prominent feature selection methods adapted through the ALFESE framework. Finally, we demonstrate practical usability through 3 challenging real-world datasets from metabolomics and physical chemistry: GEMSS successfully isolates multiple distinct yet quality solutions. GEMSS is available as a PyPI package 'gemss'. The corresponding repository github.com/kat-er-ina/gemss/ includes the full codebase and a free, no-code application GEMSS Explorer.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Cluster LOCO: Feature Importance For Interpreting Clusters

arXiv:2606.14592v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Clustering is widely used for exploratory analysis and scientific discovery, driving insights from market segmentation to biological data analysis, but its outputs can be difficult to interpret, audit, and reproduce as modern datasets become increasingly large and complex. Reliable use of clustering requires understanding which features drive the discovered structure, yet feature-level explanations for clustering remain scarce compared with methods in supervised learning. Furthermore, existing clustering feature importance scores are often tied to specific algorithms and data assumptions. To address these challenges, we propose Cluster LOCO (Leave-One-Covariate-Out), a family of model-agnostic feature importance scores for clustering. Cluster LOCO is built on feature occlusion and clustering generalizability, defined as whether cluster labels learned on one subset of the data can be accurately predicted on held-out samples. For any chosen clustering algorithm, Cluster LOCO quantifies a feature's importance by measuring how much its removal degrades generalizability. We first introduce Cluster LOCO-Split, which relies on data splitting, and then extend it to Cluster LOCO-MP, a minipatch ensemble-based version designed for large-scale data. Across synthetic simulations and an application to cell-type discovery in single-cell transcriptomics, we show that Cluster LOCO more reliably recovers informative features than existing clustering feature importance methods.

10.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

MedLayBench-V: A Large-Scale Benchmark for Expert-Lay Semantic Alignment in Medical Vision Language Models

Medical Vision-Language Models (Med-VLMs) have achieved expert-level proficiency in interpreting diagnostic imaging. However, current models are predominantly trained on professional literature, limiting their ability to communicate findings in the lay register required for patient-centered care. While text-centric research has actively developed resources for simplifying medical jargon, there is a critical absence of large-scale multimodal benchmarks designed to facilitate lay-accessible medical image understanding. To bridge this resource gap, we introduce MedLayBench-V, the first large-scale multimodal benchmark dedicated to expert-lay semantic alignment. Unlike naive simplification approaches that risk hallucination, our dataset is constructed via a Structured Concept-Grounded Refinement (SCGR) pipeline. This method enforces strict semantic equivalence by integrating Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) Concept Unique Identifiers (CUIs) with micro-level entity constraints. MedLayBench-V provides a verified foundation for training and evaluating next-generation Med-VLMs capable of bridging the communication divide between clinical experts and patients.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Towards a Bathroom-Centered Human-Building Digital Twin Framework for Indoor Safety Analysis

arXiv:2606.23292v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bathroom use is a critical safety challenge for older adults because wet surfaces, constrained layouts, limited support, and frequent posture transitions are concentrated within a small domestic space. These conditions create risks that cannot be adequately understood by considering either the bathroom environment or human motion in isolation. Existing bathroom safety studies mainly identify hazards, accessibility problems, or design modifications, whereas human-centered sensing studies often focus on activity recognition or fall detection without sufficient semantic understanding of the surrounding environment. This separation limits the interpretation of how older adults interact with fixtures, support surfaces, wet areas, and spatial constraints during daily bathroom activities. To address this gap, this study proposes a bathroom-centered human-building digital twin framework for interaction-aware indoor safety analysis with a specific emphasis on older adult bathroom safety. The framework conceptualizes bathroom risk as a coupled human-environment process and integrates semantic bathroom representation, skeleton-based human representation, spatial-semantic coupling, interaction-aware event analytics, and safety-oriented visualization. A Unity-based proof-of-concept prototype is developed to demonstrate the feasibility of the framework. Although the current work remains a prototype-oriented investigation, it establishes a methodological basis for analyzing older adults' bathroom safety through explicit body-environment relations and for advancing privacy-sensitive, interaction-aware digital twin applications in aging-in-place residential environments.

12.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

Learning Action Priors for Cross-embodiment Robot Manipulation

Most Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models build on a Vision-Language Model (VLM) backbone by attaching an action module and optimizing the full policy jointly. This design inherits strong visual and linguistic priors from the VLM, but leaves the action module to learn physical motion almost from scratch. As a result, the policy lacks an explicit motion prior, forcing early optimization to simultaneously discover temporal action dynamics and cross-modal alignment, a challenge further amplified in cross-embodiment settings. In this work, we propose to pretrain the action module with motion priors before cross-modal VLA alignment. Specifically, we introduce a two-stage training framework that equips the action module with cross-embodiment temporal motion structure before VLA training begins. In Stage~1, a lightweight flow-matching-based encoder-decoder action module efficiently learns temporal motion structure solely from unconditioned action trajectories, without processing visual or language tokens. In Stage~2, this learned prior is transferred to VLA training through decoder reuse and early-stage latent distillation, aligning visual-language features with the action embedding space while still allowing end-to-end policy refinement. In addition, the trained encoder serves as a compact history compressor, summarizing state-action histories into a single temporal context token for history-aware modeling at negligible cost. Extensive experiments across 13 diverse cross-embodiment tasks on both simulated and real-world platforms validate the effectiveness of our approach. Compared with VLA training without action priors, our model achieves faster convergence, higher success rates, and substantially stronger performance on data-scarce real-world tasks. Moreover, scaling up the action data in Stage~1 yields a more generalizable action prior that directly improves downstream VLA performance.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Toward Controllable Catalyst Inverse Design via Large-Scale Autoregressive Pretraining

arXiv:2606.17445v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Inverse design of heterogeneous catalysts remains challenging because catalyst surfaces exhibit substantial structural complexity with coupled surface-adsorbate interactions across a vast chemical space that is difficult to explore efficiently through conventional screening alone. Although machine learning-based high-throughput screening has accelerated catalyst discovery, its efficiency inevitably declines as the search space grows, motivating the development of generative models that can directly construct catalysts with target properties. Here, we present a conditional catalyst generative model based on the Generative Pretrained Transformer architecture with a numerical embedding layer that enables the generation of catalyst structures conditioned on both categorical and continuous properties within a single autoregressive framework. The model was pretrained on 133 million catalyst structures and subsequently fine-tuned on approximately 460,000 optimized structures with associated categorical properties and binding energies for conditional generation. The resulting model achieved 98% structural validity, 95% optimization validity, and high categorical condition fidelity, with a 93 % joint match rate for adsorbate type and composition. For binding energy conditioning, the match rate of approximately 20% represents a four-fold improvement over the baseline training distribution, and the generated distributions shift systematically toward the target values, enabling a 1.5 to 4-fold improvement in screening efficiency for reaction-targeted catalyst discovery without additional fine-tuning. These results show that large-scale autoregressive pre-training, combined with explicit property conditioning, provides a practical route toward controllable catalyst generation and accelerated catalysts discovery.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

EgoSAT: A Comprehensive Benchmark of Egocentric Streaming Interaction Understanding

We introduce EgoSAT, the first comprehensive benchmark for egocentric video reasoning in streaming settings, designed to evaluate the capabilities of modern vision-language models (VLMs). The benchmark targets streaming interaction understanding, where video frames arrive sequentially and models must continuously interpret evolving visual context. EgoSAT unifies several previously distinct tasks within a single streaming framework. In this formulation, queries about completed events correspond to retrospective reasoning, queries about ongoing activities require online understanding, and queries about future actions involve prospective anticipation. This unified setting requires models to reason about the past, present, and future while operating under the constraint that only previously observed frames are available. EgoSAT contains 1,997 unique videos spanning 165 hours of egocentric footage and around 4,800 high-quality question-answer pairs, carefully designed to probe reasoning across varying temporal contexts. Using this benchmark, we evaluate a diverse set of both open-weight and closed-weight VLMs, providing a systematic assessment of their ability for streaming interaction understanding. By distinguishing answerability and conducting diagnostics on confidence of models, we find existing models not only struggle with prospective and retrospective modeling, but also exhibit severe mis-calibration: confidence often fails to track inherent answerability, leading to dangerous "confidently wrong" behaviors. Project page: https://leiyj23.github.io/EgoSAT/

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Evidence-Gated LLM Priors for Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization

arXiv:2606.01730v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as heuristic advisors for black-box optimization, yet their suggestions and self-reported confidence are not necessarily calibrated to downstream objective values. This issue becomes more pronounced in multi-objective Bayesian optimization, where different objectives may require different expert knowledge and where an LLM expert can be useful for one objective but misleading for another. We study how to use LLM-generated expert priors in discrete multi-objective Bayesian optimization without blindly trusting them. We propose an objective-wise reputation-market mechanism that treats each expert-objective pair as a falsifiable prior source. Expert weights are updated online from observed objective feedback, discounted over time, and gated by market-level trust. We then introduce a decoupled counterfactual gate that can use the LLM prior without confidence, use it with confidence, or abstain from the LLM prior entirely. Across controlled synthetic stress tests and three molecule optimization benchmarks with \qwenflash{}-generated expert priors, we find that dynamic objective-wise calibration improves robustness over fixed LLM priors. However, raw LLM confidence is not reliably beneficial: on ESOL, confidence is positively correlated with prediction error; on FreeSolv, confidence can help; and on Lipophilicity, ignoring confidence remains strongest. Our fixed three-arm counterfactual gate improves over the first counterfactual variant on ESOL and FreeSolv, while an attempted margin portfolio exposes a useful negative result: margin selection should be acquisition-aware rather than based only on one-step prior error.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

CaReTS: A Multi-Task Framework Unifying Classification and Regression for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2511.09789v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent advances in deep forecasting models have achieved remarkable performance, yet most approaches still struggle to provide both accurate predictions and interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. This paper proposes CaReTS, a novel multi-task learning framework that combines classification and regression tasks for multi-step time series forecasting problems. The framework adopts a dual-stream architecture, where a classification branch learns the stepwise trend into the future, while a regression branch estimates the corresponding deviations from the latest observation of the target variable. The dual-stream design provides more interpretable predictions by disentangling macro-level trends from micro-level deviations in the target variable. To enable effective learning in output prediction, deviation estimation, and trend classification, we design a multi-task loss with uncertainty-aware weighting to adaptively balance the contribution of each task. Furthermore, four variants (CaReTS1–4) are instantiated under this framework to incorporate mainstream temporal modelling encoders, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs), long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), and Transformers. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CaReTS outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) algorithms in forecasting accuracy, while achieving higher trend classification performance.

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

Geometry-Anchored Transport Framework for Exemplar-Free Class-Incremental Learning

Exemplar-free class-incremental learning (EFCIL) requires stable decision boundaries within a shifting feature space. While maintaining class-conditional Gaussian statistics provides a principled classification strategy, these parametric summaries remain sensitive to anisotropic representation drift. Existing methods often transport these statistics across tasks using a decoupled, post-hoc paradigm: optimizing a backbone without explicit geometric constraints can distort the legacy manifold, limiting the precision of retroactive alignment. In this paper, we formulate feature transport as an endogenous training constraint rather than a separate post-task step, presenting the Geometry-Anchored Transport Framework. First, we derive an Analytic Geometric Anchor via Mahalanobis-aligned regression to mitigate macroscopic anisotropic drift. Second, we introduce a Topology-Aware Evolution objective that regularizes localized manifold degradation while calibrating a residual network against the analytic prior. By coupling manifold evolution with transport constraints during the primary training phase, our framework mitigates evaluation errors without requiring decoupled fine-tuning. Experiments across CIFAR-100, TinyImageNet, and ImageNet-100 demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently improves upon existing post-hoc alternatives under strict exemplar-free constraints.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

Naturalness Predicts but Does Not Cause Transferability in Image Encodings of Real-World Streams

A common practice converts a one-dimensional signal into an image so that a vision backbone pretrained on natural photographs can be reused for recognition, yet the encoded image is rarely examined. We ask how the visual naturalness of an encoded image relates to its transfer accuracy under a frozen backbone. We build WorldStream, a corpus of 299 heterogeneous current-value series from key-free public APIs (weather, air quality, earthquakes, gold and oil, equities, crypto, foreign exchange, web activity and space weather), with a nine-way source-recognition task over 3143 temporally split windows. Across seven encodings and six frozen backbones, the Frechet distance of an encoding to natural images (FID) predicts its accuracy: Spearman $\rho=-0.72$. Two controlled interventions show this is not causal in the spectrum. Our invertible encoder has a single adjustable part, a spectral exponent $\beta$ (power $\propto |f|^{-\beta}$); varying $\beta$ moves the image toward or away from the natural-image manifold at fixed content. FID is lowest near the natural value $\beta \approx 2$, but frozen accuracy stays flat and far below the structured baselines (19.2% vs. 73.0%), and FID and accuracy are only weakly related over the sweep (Pearson $-0.32$). A second intervention, phase scrambling, holds the power spectrum exactly fixed while removing local structure; now FID and accuracy fall together (Pearson $-0.89$). The cross-encoding correlation is thus mediated by local structure, not spectral naturalness: FID predicts accuracy because Inception reads the same structure the backbones do. Full fine-tuning does not close the gap (27% vs. 67%), so the deficit is structural. The encoder is exactly invertible, recovering the signal from the 8-bit image at 72.9 dB, so the image doubles as a lossless record of the data.

19.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Tripartite entanglement of remote atomic qubits

arXiv:2606.17173v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Distributed entanglement across multi-node quantum networks is essential for a wide range of quantum technologies, including modular quantum computers, distributed sensing and metrology, and multi-party secure communication protocols. Such large-scale quantum networks will require photonic interconnects to generate and sustain entangled states across localized nodes. Previously, three-node distributed Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) states have been generated between solid-state qubits and atomic ensembles, but not yet in the platform of individual atomic qubits, which can be replicated, detected, and individually controlled with high fidelity. Here we report the first fully-distributed GHZ state of qubits across a three-node quantum network of single atomic memories, using photonic interconnects. We achieve a bounded fidelity of $0.841(17) \leq \mathcal{F} \leq 0.881(17)$ at an entanglement generation rate of 0.095(5)/sec and measure a clear violation of Mermin's inequality while closing the detection loophole for the first time in a fully-distributed multipartite entangled state.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

From Forecasting Leaderboards to Deployment Decisions: A Fail-Closed Certification Protocol

arXiv:2606.24996v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting leaderboards rank models by predictive quality, but their winners are often read as deployment-ready top-1 advice. That reading can fail when forecasts are passed through a fixed decision interface, such as an alert threshold, a top-k budget, or a switching-cost policy. We study when a forecast-side winner can be certified as deployment-actionable for a specified interface and deployed utility. We introduce a fail-closed certification protocol whose gates are sufficient evidential conditions for a strong claim: a friction-caused, non-tie, statistically supported, and recurrent deployment-side reversal. Traffic-Hourly provides a certified anchor: winners agree at zero friction, but positive switching friction makes the forecast winner deployed-suboptimal. A locked native audit tests overclaiming: across 22 verified candidates and 362 full-grid cells, 155 apparent forecast/deployment winner inversions are blocked before certification. The contribution is not a new forecaster, metric, or universal utility, but a conservative protocol for deciding when forecasting leaderboard winners should be read as deployment-actionable top-1 advice.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Time-Series Foundation Model Embeddings for Remaining Useful Life Estimation

arXiv:2606.11990v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction is essential for industrial predictive maintenance, yet many learning-based approaches rely on extensive feature engineering or large labeled datasets to train task-specific sequence models. In this work, we introduce a lightweight learning approach, in which we leverage a frozen pretrained time-series foundation model (TSFM) and combine it with a small regression head for RUL estimation from multivariate sensor streams. More specifically, we use Chronos-2 as a frozen backbone to extract context window features and train a lightweight regression neural network for RUL prediction. Experiments on real-world industrial sensor data from two device types show that Chronos-2 features consistently improve over recurrent, convolutional, Transformer-based, and gradient-boosting baselines under the same preprocessing and evaluation protocol. We further analyze the impact of context length and find that performance improves significantly with longer histories, indicating that TSFM representation offer a practical and data-efficient alternative for RUL estimation in industrial settings.

22.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Clusters are All You Need: Pre-Training the Tsetlin Machine with Semantic Clusters from Language Models for Interpretability

Pre-trained language models such as BERT achieve strong text classification performance but lack transparency, limiting their use in high-stakes settings. The Tsetlin Machine (TM) offers fully interpretable, clause-based reasoning but captures little semantic information, and prior attempts to bridge the two rely on static word embeddings that miss contextual meaning. We propose a semantic pre-training framework that transfers knowledge from a pre-trained language model into a TM without using embeddings. Text samples are grouped into semantically coherent clusters with K-means or Top2Vec, and the resulting cluster-sample pairs pre-train a non-negated TM with enhanced Type I feedback. The TM thereby learns interpretable semantic keywords that are fine-tuned on downstream tasks. Across five datasets, our method substantially outperforms vanilla and embedding-based TMs and reaches performance competitive with BERT while remaining interpretable.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

An epidemiological scenario for Mass Events During the World Cup

This brief work discusses potential superspreading events that may occur during the World Cup in Mexico. The study is particularly focused on the city of Guadalajara due to a large recent outbreak in January and February and insufficient vaccine coverage prior to 2026. Keywords: Superspreading; measles outbreak; branching process; individual reproduction number; World Cup

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Think Fast: Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models

arXiv:2606.07157v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Many efforts to ensure frontier AI models are safe rely on monitoring their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. If models become able to perform sufficiently complex reasoning internally, without explicit thinking tokens, this would undermine such oversight. We measure how well frontier models reason without CoT across a suite of over 30,000 questions spanning 43 benchmarks in domains including math, coding, puzzles, causality, theory-of-mind, and strategic reasoning. To compare models against humans, we estimate the $50\%$-task-completion time horizon (TH): the human time required for tasks a model completes with $50\%$ success rate. We complement this with a $50\%$ reasoning token horizon: the minimum number of o3-mini reasoning tokens needed for tasks a model solves with $50\%$ success rate. We find that the no-CoT $50\%$ TH of frontier models has been doubling roughly every year over the past six years, with GPT-5.5's TH reaching over 3 minutes and reasoning token horizon exceeding 1,500 tokens. Our median estimates predict that frontier no-CoT THs could exceed 7 minutes by 2028, and 25 minutes by 2030, though these projections carry substantial uncertainty. We recommend frontier developers track this explicitly.

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

RepWAM: World Action Modeling with Representation Visual-Action Tokenizers

This work presents RepWAM, a representation-centric world action model (WAM) built on representation visual-action tokenizers. Existing WAMs typically inherit reconstruction-oriented video tokenizers from pretrained video generation models. Although these tokenizers preserve visual fidelity, pixel reconstruction alone provides limited guidance for learning instruction-following dynamics that connect future prediction with robot control. To address this, we explore a semantic visual-action latent space for representation-centric world action modeling. Specifically, we train a representation visual-action tokenizer that maps visual inputs into aligned visual and latent action tokens. We then pretrain our WAM to jointly model future visual states and the latent actions that connect them under language instructions, followed by adaptation to real robot trajectories for closed-loop manipulation. Experiments on real-world manipulation tasks and simulation benchmarks show that RepWAM delivers strong performance across diverse manipulation settings, while ablations highlight the value of semantic visual-action tokenization over reconstruction-oriented alternatives. These results establish representation visual-action tokenization as a promising foundation for world action models and a step toward generalist robot policies. Code and weights will be available at https://github.com/wdrink/RepWAM.