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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Phi-Actor-Critic: Steering General-Sum Games to Pareto-Efficient Correlated Equilibria

arXiv:2606.11284v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Real-world multi-agent systems, from traffic coordination to resource allocation, are often modeled as general-sum games where individual incentives conflict with collective welfare. In these settings, the central challenge is not merely finding an equilibrium, but selecting socially desirable outcomes among many suboptimal Nash equilibria. Standard deep multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) methods struggle with this problem, as value-decomposition approaches are constrained by monotonicity assumptions and policy-gradient methods often converge to stable but socially inefficient equilibria. To address this limitation, we propose $\Phi$-Actor-Critic ($\Phi$-AC), a framework that leverages swap regret minimization to steer learning toward high-welfare correlated equilibria (CE). To make counterfactual regret estimation tractable in deep MARL, $\Phi$-AC employs a centralized attention critic that predicts vector-valued regrets in a single forward pass, avoiding computationally expensive counterfactual simulations. We further introduce a Lagrangian-based equilibrium selection mechanism that optimizes social welfare while enforcing stability through regret constraints. Experiments on matrix games, Multi-Agent Particle Environments (MPE), and the Melting Pot Harvest scenario demonstrate that $\Phi$-AC learns efficient and stable coordination strategies across diverse mixed-motive settings while maintaining high collective return and competitive fairness.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

V-Zero: Answer-Label-Free On-Policy Distillation with Contrastive Evidence Gating for Fine-Grained Visual Reasoning

Fine-grained visual reasoning requires multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to identify task-relevant visual evidence and ground their reasoning in local image regions. Existing agentic methods typically rely on reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards or supervised fine-tuning on large-scale annotated reasoning traces, leading to costly exploration, hand-designed verification rules, or heavy dependence on textual supervision. A natural way to avoid such external answer labels is to learn from trajectories sampled by the student itself, which points to On-Policy Distillation (OPD). To understand what OPD can and cannot provide for visual reasoning, we revisit it as negative-free stop-gradient alignment. This perspective shows that, although OPD provides effective token-level correction, its ceiling is constrained by the absence of trajectory-level discrimination. Motivated by these observations, we propose V-Zero, an answer-label-free framework for visual reasoning with contrastive evidence gating. V-Zero uses no annotated textual answer labels; instead, during training it pairs a question-relevant regional crop with a negative visual view to evaluate student-sampled trajectories and gate dense token-level distillation. Experiments on multiple visual reasoning benchmarks show that V-Zero consistently improves fine-grained visual reasoning while preserving strong generalization. Notably, V-Zero is more than 5$\times$ faster than previous supervised fine-tuning methods and more than 10$\times$ faster than reinforcement learning baselines. Code and dataset will be released at https://github.com/eVI-group-SCU/V-Zero

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Is Variational Monte Carlo Robust? Sharp Moment Thresholds and Heavy-tailed Stochastic Optimization

arXiv:2606.26009v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Variational Monte Carlo (VMC) is a central algorithm in electronic structure theory and has gained renewed importance through modern neural-network ansätze such as FermiNet. At its core, VMC seeks ground states by minimizing the Rayleigh quotient by stochastic optimization. In this work, we show that the resulting stochastic optimization problem is intrinsically governed by the nodal geometry of the underlying wave function. More precisely, we establish that properties of the nodal set determine the integrability of the local energy and gradient estimators that drive VMC. For broad and practically relevant ansatz classes, including Slater-Jastrow wave functions with variable-exponent Slater-type orbitals, we prove that these estimators are generically heavy-tailed and fail to admit higher moments. At the same time, for general analytic ansätze, we prove weak moment bounds for the relevant estimators and identify precise low-moment regimes, showing how generic and degenerate nodal structures lead to different integrability thresholds. Building on this analysis, we introduce a new robust variant of VMC $\unicode{x2013}$ coined PS-Clip-VMC $\unicode{x2013}$ which is based on clipping both the local energy and the gradient random variable. We prove that PS-Clip-VMC converges both in expectation and with high probability in the weak moment regime of VMC. Preliminary experiments for training FermiNet on Atoms with up to 18 electrons suggest that PS-Clip-VMC is significantly more robust than standard methods.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Do Large Language Models Always Tell The Same Stories?

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have enabled the generation of high-quality prose, yet the question of whether these models are capable of generating diverse outputs remains contested. In this work, we investigate the diversity of LLM-generated stories through the framework of narrative similarity. Using a contrastive framework and a dataset of human-written stories and prompts from r/WritingPrompts, we collect narrative similarity judgments across 10 representative LLMs, utilizing both human evaluations and three different automatic annotation methods. Our findings reveal a consistent trend: LLM-generated narratives are consistently more similar to each other than human-written stories are. We demonstrate that frontier models in particular converge on a ``mean'' generic narrative that approximates individual human stories but lacks the collective diversity of human authors. Finally, we show that common mitigation strategies, including negative prompting and temperature scaling, fail to meaningfully address this homogeneity.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

How Small Can 6G Reason? Scaling Tiny-to-Small Language Models for AI-Native Networks

arXiv:2603.02156v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Emerging 6G visions, reflected in ongoing standardization efforts within 3GPP, IETF, ETSI, ITU-T, and the O-RAN Alliance, increasingly characterize networks as AI-native systems in which high-level semantic reasoning layers operate above standardized control and data-plane functions. Although frontier-scale large language models (LLMs) such as Qwen2.5-7B and Olmo-3-7B demonstrate strong reasoning capability, their computational footprint limits deployment in latency-sensitive, edge-native infrastructures. This paper presents a systematic empirical study of the scaling behavior and deployment efficiency of compact language models for network-level semantic reasoning in AI-native 6G systems. Using 6G-Bench, a standardization-aligned benchmark comprising 30 decision-making tasks across five capability domains, we evaluate models ranging from 135M (SmolLM2-135M) to 7B parameters (Qwen2.5-7B), including mid-scale architectures such as Llama-3.2-1B, Granite-1B, and Qwen2.5-3B. Deterministic accuracy (pass@1) increases from 0.224 at 135M to 0.707 at 7B, but scaling gains are highly non-uniform. A pronounced stability transition occurs in the 1 to 1.5B range, where accuracy rises from 0.373 (Llama-3.2-1B) to 0.531 (Qwen2.5-1.5B) and the instability gap Delta_5 contracts from 0.356 to 0.138. Beyond 3B parameters, improvements diminish (+0.064 from 3B to 7B). Through single-query inference profiling and an Edge Score metric that normalizes accuracy by latency and memory footprint, we show that semantic reliability per unit edge resource does not scale monotonically with parameter count. Instead, mid-scale models (approximately 1.5 to 3B) achieve the most favorable balance between deterministic stability and computational efficiency, providing deployment-relevant guidance for AI-native 6G architectures. All scripts and results are publicly available at https://github.com/maferrag/6G-Bench

07.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

Geometric obstructions to Lipschitz transport between weighted Hessian $\mathrm{CD}(\kappa,\infty)$ manifolds

arXiv:2606.11085v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We construct a weighted Riemannian manifold $(\mathbb R^2,g,\mu)$ satisfying $\mathrm{CD}(1/2,\infty)$, the curvature-dimension condition, with the following property: if $\gamma$ denotes a centered Gaussian measure on $\mathbb R^2$, then there is no Lipschitz map $T:(\mathbb R^2,\|\cdot\|) \to (\mathbb R^2,g)$ satisfying $T_\#\gamma=\mu$. Building on this, we prove a Weyl-type asymptotic law for the eigenvalues of the weighted Laplacian $-\Delta_{g,\mu}$ and show that they are asymptotically negligible when compared to the eigenvalues of $-\Delta_{\gamma}$. These results give strong counterexamples to two questions of E. Milman and complement the recent counterexample of Aryan.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Temporal Self-Imitation Learning

arXiv:2606.19752v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Long-horizon robot manipulation policies trained with reward shaping can still exploit dense rewards through inefficient interaction, while rare efficient behaviors may be forgotten during training. We argue that temporal efficiency itself provides a powerful and underutilized source of self-supervision for reinforcement learning. We introduce Temporal Self-Imitation Learning (TSIL), a reinforcement learning framework that mines temporally efficient successful trajectories generated during learning and converts them into reusable supervision for future policy improvement. TSIL progressively refines learning using configuration-conditioned adaptive temporal targets derived from fast successful trajectories, while preserving and replaying efficient behaviors through efficiency-weighted self-imitation learning. Across 15 distinct long-horizon manipulation tasks, TSIL consistently improves learning efficiency, task-completion efficiency, revisitation of fast successful behaviors, and robustness to unstable training conditions. More broadly, our results suggest that the temporal structure of successful behavior itself provides a scalable self-supervisory signal for reinforcement learning beyond manually engineered reward shaping alone.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Open Materials Generation with Inference-Time Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2602.00424v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Continuous-time generative models for crystalline materials enable inverse materials design by learning to predict stable crystal structures, but incorporating explicit target properties into the generative process remains challenging. Policy-gradient reinforcement learning (RL) provides a principled mechanism for aligning generative models with downstream objectives but typically requires access to the score, which has prevented its application to flow-based models that learn only velocity fields. We introduce Open Materials Generation with Inference-time Reinforcement Learning (OMatG-IRL), a policy-gradient RL framework that operates directly on the learned velocity fields and eliminates the need for the explicit computation of the score. OMatG-IRL leverages stochastic perturbations of the underlying generation dynamics preserving the baseline performance of the pretrained generative model while enabling exploration and policy-gradient estimation at inference time. Using OMatG-IRL, we present the first application of RL to crystal structure prediction (CSP). Our method enables effective reinforcement of an energy-based objective while preserving diversity through composition conditioning, and it achieves performance competitive with score-based RL approaches. Finally, we show that OMatG-IRL can learn time-dependent velocity-annealing schedules, enabling accurate CSP with order-of-magnitude improvements in sampling efficiency and, correspondingly, reduction in generation time. The OMatG-IRL code is included in a new release of the Open Materials Generation (OMatG) framework available at https://github.com/FERMat-ML/OMatG.

10.
PLOS Medicine 2026-05-21

Novel symptoms associated with eclampsia could improve detection and save lives

by Alice Beardmore-Gray, Andrew Shennan Eclampsia is a life-threatening complication of pre-eclampsia, yet remains difficult to predict. In this Perspective, Alice Beardmore-Gray and Andrew Shennan highlight a recent study that identifies 10 novel prodromal symptoms of eclampsia, with potential to better predict which women are at risk and therefore reduce delays in intervention.

11.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Data-Driven Stochastic Model for Detecting Patientswith Alzheimer's Disease

Alzheimer s disease (AD) is a critical neurological disorder that causes the brain to shrink and leads to the eventual death of brain cells, adversely affecting a person s ability to function. AD is a fast-growing disease in the United States and was the fifth leading cause of death among Americans 65 years of age or older in 2023. In the United States 6.9 million people aged 65 or older were diagnosed with AD, along with a high rate of undiagnosed patients. Thus, the objective of our study is to develop a real data-driven predictive model to identify a patient with AD based on eight risk factors: Age, Gender, ADAS-Cog13, Entorhinal, Fusiform, Intracranial Volume (ICV), Amyloid-Beta, and Tau Protein, with a high degree of accuracy. The quality of the model was evaluated using well-established and sophisticated statistical measures: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and K-fold cross-validation. If a patient is given information on the above risk factors, our proposed binary logistic regression model can classify the patient as having AD or not with at least 98% accuracy.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

ATHENA: Agentic Team for Hierarchical Evolutionary Numerical Algorithms

arXiv:2512.03476v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Progress in computational science depends on complex numerical workflows that must faithfully encode physical laws, yet translating conceptual insight into reliable code remains a major bottleneck. Although large language models can generate isolated code fragments, they lack the structured reasoning required to design, verify, and iteratively refine complete scientific pipelines. Here we introduce ATHENA, an agentic framework explicitly designed to emulate scientific research modeled as a knowledge-driven contextual bandit process. Its core loop separates conceptual policy from numerical realization through expert-derived conceptual scaffolding, enabling principled diagnosis, reformulation, and repair of computational strategies. Across scientific computing and scientific machine learning tasks, ATHENA autonomously derives and correctly applies exact analytical solutions, constructs stable numerical solvers, diagnoses ill-posed formulations, and orchestrates hybrid symbolic-numeric workflows. Quantitatively, ATHENA matches and frequently surpasses the accuracy of expert-authored reference solutions reported in the literature on canonical benchmarks. By reframing computation as an object of agentic reasoning, our framework enables autonomous orchestration of heterogeneous algorithms across scientific domains.

14.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Quantum-inspired Ising machine using sparsified spin connectivity

arXiv:2604.04606v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Combinatorial optimization problems become computationally intractable as these NP-hard problems scale. We previously proposed extraction-type majority voting logic (E-MVL), a quantum-inspired algorithm using digital logic circuits. E-MVL mimics the thermal spin dynamics of simulated annealing (SA) through controlled sparsification of spin interactions for efficient ground-state search. This study investigates the performance potential of E-MVL through systematic optimization and comprehensive benchmarking against SA. The target problem is the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick (SK) model with bimodal and Gaussian coupling distributions. Through equilibrium state analysis, we demonstrate that the sparsity control mechanism provides a consistent search of the solution space regardless of the problem's coupling distribution (bimodal, Gaussian) or size. E-MVL not only achieves the best performance among all tested algorithms–solving exact solutions up to 1600 spins where the best SA baseline is limited to 400 spins–but also provides insights that significantly improve SA's own temperature scheduling. These results establish E-MVL's dual contribution as both an efficient optimizer and a practical methodology for enhancing SA performance. Moreover, FPGA implementation achieved an approximately 6-fold faster solution speed than SA.

15.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

The Statistical Compass

arXiv:2606.11282v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This monograph develops probability and stochastic-process ideas as a translation language for statistics: from designed observations and data objects to targets, stability statements, inference, and use. The chapters move from motivating examples and randomization through probability measures, kernels, likelihoods, data objects, weak convergence, empirical fields, functional data, M- and Z-estimation, testing, local approximations, event-time processes, and prediction. Historical and biomedical examples are used to keep abstract objects tied to records, mechanisms, and decisions. The aim is to give readers a common grammar for classical probability, modern data structures, and statistical practice.

16.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

A Novel Correction Method for QT Interval in the Presence of Left Bundle Branch Block Morphology

Background Accurate assessment of the QT interval is challenging in the presence of QRS prolongation, such as during ventricular pacing or bundle branch block. Current correction methods are heterogeneous and lack consensus. To evaluate the relationship between QRS duration and QT interval during ventricular pacing and to develop a practical correction method for QT assessment. Methods In this prospective single-centre study, 94 patients undergoing electrophysiology study for supraventricular tachycardia were included. Standardised pacing was performed at the same cycle length from the right ventricular (RV) apex, high output and low output pacing from His catheter, and coronary sinus (reference). QRS and QT intervals were measured from 12-lead ECGs. Changes in QT (QT) and QRS duration (QRS) were analysed using linear regression and mixed-effects modelling. QT correction formulas of the form QT corrected = QT N x QRS were evaluated using Bland-Altman analysis across multiple coefficients. Results A significant positive correlation between QRS and QT was observed across all pacing sites (r = 0.52-0.74, p < 0.001). In mixed-effects modelling, QRS was a strong independent predictor of QT (0.59, p < 0.001), with no significant interaction between pacing site and QRS, supporting a consistent relationship across pacing locations. Bland-Altman analysis demonstrated that correction coefficients of 0.65-0.70 minimised systematic bias compared with lower coefficients, with similar precision across models (SD 16 ms) and no evidence of proportional bias. A coefficient of 0.65 provided the most balanced performance between bias and variability. Conclusion QT prolongation during ventricular pacing is primarily driven by QRS widening and follows a consistent linear relationship across pacing sites. A simple correction using QT corrected = QT 0.65 x (QRS 100 ms) provides a practical and accurate method for QT assessment, with potential clinical applicability in patients with conduction abnormalities or ventricular pacing.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Riemann-Bench: A Benchmark for Moonshot Mathematics

arXiv:2604.06802v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent AI systems have achieved gold-medal-level performance on the International Mathematical Olympiad, demonstrating remarkable proficiency at competition-style problem solving. However, competition mathematics represents only a narrow slice of mathematical reasoning: problems are drawn from limited domains, require minimal advanced machinery, and can often reward insightful tricks over deep theoretical knowledge. We introduce Riemann-Bench, a private benchmark of expert-curated problems designed to evaluate AI systems on research-level mathematics that goes far beyond the olympiad frontier. Problems are authored by Ivy League mathematics professors, graduate students, and PhD-holding IMO medalists, and routinely took their authors weeks to solve independently. Each problem undergoes double-blind verification by two independent domain experts who must solve the problem from scratch, and yields a unique, closed-form solution assessed by programmatic verifiers. We evaluate frontier models as unconstrained research agents, with full access to coding tools, search, and open-ended reasoning, using an unbiased statistical estimator computed over 100 independent runs per problem. Our results reveal that all frontier models currently score below 10%, exposing a substantial gap between olympiad-level problem solving and genuine research-level mathematical reasoning. By keeping the benchmark fully private, we ensure that measured performance reflects authentic mathematical capability rather than memorization of training data.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

SpikeDecoder: Realizing the GPT Architecture with Spiking Neural Networks

arXiv:2606.12287v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The Transformer architecture is widely regarded as the most powerful tool for natural language processing, but due to a high number of complex operations, it inherently faces the issue of high energy consumption. To address this issue, we consider Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs), which are an energy-efficient alternative to conventional Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) due to their naturally event-driven approach to processing information. However, this inherently makes them difficult to train. Often, many SNN-based models circumvent this issue by converting pre-trained ANNs. More recently, attempts have been made to design directly trainable SNN-based adaptations of the Transformer model structure. Although the results showed great promise, the application field was computer vision. Moreover, the proposed model incorporates only encoder blocks. In this paper, we propose SpikeDecoder, a fully SNN-based implementation of the Transformer decoder block, for applications in natural language processing. In a series of experiments, we analyze the impact of exchanging different blocks of the ANN model with spike-based alternatives to identify trade-offs and significant sources of performance loss. We further investigate the role of residual connections and the selection of SNN-compatible normalization techniques. Besides the work on the model architecture, we formulate and compare different embedding methods to project text data into spikes. Finally, we demonstrate that our proposed SNN-based decoder block reduces the theoretical energy consumption by 87% to 93% compared to the ANN baseline.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

An Empirical Investigation of Pre-Trained Deep Learning Model Reuse in the Scientific Process

arXiv:2603.13584v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deep learning has achieved recognition for its impact within natural sciences, yet the prohibitive financial and technical cost of training models from scratch inhibit adoption. Following software engineering community guidance, natural scientists are reusing pre-trained deep learning models (PTMs) to amortize these costs. While prior works recommend PTM reuse patterns, we present the first empirical study of PTM reuse patterns in the natural sciences, quantifying the utilization and impact of PTM reuse within the scientific process across 17,718 peer reviewed, open access papers. Our results show that "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology" has outpaced other natural scientific fields in PTM reuse, "adaptation" reuse is the most prevalent PTM reuse pattern identified across all natural science fields, and the "testing" stage of the scientific process has been most impacted by PTM integration.

20.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Study protocol and statistical analysis plan for a randomized controlled trial evaluating the safety and feasibility of the recombinant human platelet-derived growth factor B (rhPDGF-BB)-enhanced collagen plug for complex perianal fistula healing

Background A drug-repurposing-specific phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) demonstrated that patients with a single nucleotide variant that decreases expression of platelet-derived growth factor receptor beta (PDGFR{beta}) have a higher prevalence of fistulas, suggesting that PDGFR{beta} signaling is important for tissue repair. Recombinant human platelet derived growth factor B (rhPDGF) is an FDA-approved protein-based therapeutic that signals through PDGFR{beta} to heal and regenerate cutaneous skin wounds, periodontal tissue, and orthopedic bone with a strong safety profile. We hypothesize that rhPDGF will benefit other conditions identified by PheWAS with a similar physiological mechanism as the existing indications, such as complex perianal fistulas that are ineligible for a fistulotomy. Methods and analysis This prospective, blinded, single-site study aims to enroll 12 participants, randomized at a ratio of 2:1, comparing implantation of rhPDGF-enhanced collagen to routine care procedures, and stratified by fistula etiology, idiopathic versus Crohns disease (CD)-related. The primary outcome of this study will evaluate the technical performance of the rhPDGF-enhanced collagen implant for treatment of complex perianal fistulas as measured by the proportion of participants with successful implantation of the intervention without any intervention-related serious adverse events. The secondary outcomes will assess the preliminary safety and efficacy of the intervention based on all intervention-related adverse events, total fistulas healed, rate of fistula recurrence, and change in patient-reported symptoms. Complex perianal fistulas, idiopathic or CD-related, remain a major clinical challenge in need of new multimodal treatments aimed at tissue repair and regeneration. Pharmaceutical rhPDGF stimulation of PDGFR{beta} signaling promotes healing of skin, bone, and soft tissue. PheWAS revealed fistulas as a novel indication for repurposing rhPDGF. This protocol aims to evaluate the technical performance, preliminary safety and efficacy, and feasibility of rhPDGF-enhanced collagen for healing and remission of complex perianal fistulas. Ethics and dissemination This trial was approved by the Vanderbilt University Medical Center institutional review board (IRB#240585). Results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Toward Trustworthy AI: Multi-Target Adversarial Attacks and Robust Defenses for Continuous Data Summarization

arXiv:2606.11804v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Trustworthy AI requires reliable data-processing pipelines, not only robust downstream predictive models. As an upstream component, data summarization determines which information is retained and passed to subsequent learning or decision modules. Therefore, adversarial perturbations to the summarization process can compromise trustworthy AI in an upstream manner: they may alter the selected summary, reduce its representativeness, and further degrade the utility of subsequent learning tasks. In this paper, we study adversarial attacks on continuous data summarization under similarity-level perturbations through DR-submodular optimization. We show that a class of multi-resolution image summarization objectives can be formulated as multilinear extensions of non-negative submodular set functions and satisfy DR-submodularity with $m$-weak monotonicity. We then formulate multi-target attack generation as a min-max problem, where one admissible perturbation of the similarity structure is optimized to degrade multiple target summarization models. To mitigate such perturbations, we formulate robust defense against mixed attack types as a regularized max-min problem. For both problems, we develop approximation algorithms with theoretical guarantees. Experiments on real-data and controlled clustered benchmarks show that the proposed attack is effective in representative low-to-moderate budget regimes and can induce downstream task-performance loss. The proposed defense improves the robustness–mitigation trade-off in structured settings, while also revealing the parameter sensitivity of robust protection on real data.

22.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Building Social World Models with Large Language Models

Understanding and predicting how social beliefs evolve in response to events – from policy changes to scientific breakthroughs – remains a fundamental challenge in social science. Given LLMs' commonsense knowledge and social intelligence, we ask: Can LLMs model the dynamics of social beliefs following social events? In this work, we introduce the concept of the Social World Model (SWM), a general framework designed to capture how social beliefs evolve in response to major events. SWM learns state-transition functions for social beliefs by mining temporal patterns in social data and optimizing the evidence lower bound, without the need for explicit human annotations linking events to belief shifts, or for expensive census data. To evaluate SWM, we introduce a benchmark, SWM-bench, derived from real-world prediction markets, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket. SWM-bench includes over 12k data points for social belief prediction tasks spanning diverse domains such as politics, finance, and cryptocurrency. Our experimental results show that SWM significantly outperforms time-series foundation models, achieving state-of-the-art results on Kalshi data and demonstrating competitive performance on Polymarket data, while offering interpretable insights into the underlying mechanisms of social belief dynamics.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Graph Grounded Cross Attention Transformer Neural Network for Structurally Constrained Full Event Sequence Generation in Predictive Process Monitoring

arXiv:2606.18726v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Structurally constrained event sequence generation remains challenging because generated paths must preserve transition feasibility, temporal order, termination, and attribute consistency. In predictive process monitoring (PPM), this challenge appears as full event sequence generation, whereas existing work mainly addresses component tasks such as next activity, remaining time, outcome, and attribute prediction. This paper proposes the Graph Grounded Cross Attention Transformer Neural Network (GGATN) for this unified PPM task. GGATN uses a global process graph as structured activity memory, contextualizes sequence positions through Transformer self attention, and injects process topology through graph grounded cross attention. Unlike autoregressive decoding, GGATN generates activities, timestamps, length, and event level and sequence level attributes in a single pass, followed by Viterbi style graph constrained decoding for feasible paths and explicit termination. Experiments on six benchmark event logs show more reliable generation quality than local instruction prompted LLM baselines. GGATN achieves strong performance on sequence similarity, Damerau Levenshtein similarity, bigram based control flow similarity, and duration distribution, while maintaining zero hallucinated activities and zero sequence level attribute inconsistency. Ablation analyses confirm the global graph encoder as a stable structural prior. Interpretability analyses show how graph structure, sequence context, feedback refinement, and constrained decoding shape generation.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

WISE: A Long-Horizon Agent in Minecraft with Why-Which Reasoning

arXiv:2606.12852v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Rapid advances have been made in developing general-purpose embodied agent in environments like Minecraft through the adoption of LLM-augmented hierarchical approaches. Despite their promise, low-level controllers often become performance bottlenecks due to repeated execution failures. We argue that a key limitation is not only the lack of episodic memory, but also the decoupling of what-where-when memory from which-why reasoning. To address this, we propose WISE (Which-Why Informed Semantic Explorer), a long-horizon agent framework with an enhanced low-level controller equipped with a Causal Event Graph that augments episodic memory with explicit causal structure linking observations to task relevance. Unlike prior work such as MrSteve, which relies on feature similarity for retrieval, WISE enables robust recall under viewpoint changes and supports opportunistic task reordering through causal reasoning. Building on this memory, we propose an Opportunistic Task Scheduler that dynamically re-prioritizes subtasks when causally relevant opportunities are detected. We further equip WISE with a multi-scale progressive exploration strategy to provide spatially comprehensive observations for downstream reasoning. Experiments show that WISE largely improves task success and efficiency on long-horizon sparse tasks, particularly in settings requiring adaptive decision-making.

25.
Nature Medicine 2026-06-17

Why large-scale randomized trials of live-attenuated shingles vaccination for dementia prevention are urgently needed

In my view, we have never had as robust a body of evidence from observational data on an intervention for dementia as we do for live-attenuated shingles vaccination. Both a recent US National Institutes of Health expert workshop and an international expert consensus on Alzheimer’s disease drug repurposing identified large-scale randomized trials of shingles vaccination for dementia prevention as the crucial next step for the field.