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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

On Pitfalls of $RemOve-And-Retrain$: Data Processing Inequality Perspective

The RemOve-And-Retrain (ROAR) benchmark is widely used to evaluate feature attribution methods, yet its validity remains underexplored from an information-theoretic perspective. We show that model- and data-agnostic post-processing of attribution maps (transformations that, by the data processing inequality, cannot add information about the decision function) can often improve ROAR scores. This means that an improved ROAR ranking is not, by itself, evidence that an attribution map carries more information about the model. We trace this failure mode to a bias toward spatially blurry masks. Experiments on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and CUB-200 show a consistent association between blurriness and ROAR performance, a pattern that also appears in the ROAD variant. We provide guidelines for more cautious removal-based benchmarking, with implications for validating mechanistic understanding of neural network internals.

02.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Robust Pretty Good Measurement via Hybrid Classical-Quantum Pseudoinverse Approximation and Circuit-Level Realization

arXiv:2606.13150v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pretty Good Measurement (PGM) is a near-optimal strategy for quantum state discrimination, but its practical realization becomes unstable when the ensemble operator is singular or ill-conditioned. We introduce a numerically robust PGM formulation based on the Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse, replacing the standard inverse square root with a threshold-regularized variant that remains well-defined across different spectral regimes. We develop a hybrid classical-quantum framework that combines pseudoinverse-based spectral preprocessing with quantum circuit realizations using block-encoding and spectral-transformation techniques. The framework incorporates support awareness, yielding physically meaningful measurement operators even in rank-deficient cases, and employs oblivious amplitude amplification to improve circuit-level success probabilities. Extensive numerical and circuit-level simulations show close agreement between theoretical predictions and quantum circuit outputs. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets, including ill-conditioned and degenerate scenarios, demonstrate stable discrimination performance where standard PGM becomes numerically unstable. The results establish a practical hybrid classical-quantum framework for robust quantum state discrimination and extend previous circuit-based implementations of the PGM testing stage toward pseudoinverse-aware measurement design.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

ADM-Fusion: Adaptive Deep Multi-Sensor Fusion for Robust Ego-Motion Estimation in Diverse Conditions

Robust multi-sensor fusion is essential for reliable autonomy in diverse and degraded environments, where sensor reliability can fluctuate rapidly. Because different modalities fail in distinct ways, effective fusion should adaptively balance complementary cues rather than rely on fixed weighting. This adaptability is particularly important for ego-motion estimation, since accurate updates depend on the consistent integration of complementary sensor information. We propose ADM-Fusion, an end-to-end deep learning based multi-sensor fusion method designed to adapt to environmental changes and sensor degradation. ADM-Fusion employs an adaptive sensor mixture-of-experts framework with content-aware routing to dynamically assign weights to sensor inputs in real time. The system further incorporates separate translation and rotation branches, coupled through a cross-task attention mechanism to preserve task-specific specialization while enabling information sharing. ADM-Fusion is trained on the CARLA-LOC simulated dataset and subsequently fine-tuned on KITTI real-world data, demonstrating effective simulation-to-real transfer. Experiments show that ADM-Fusion remains robust under degraded conditions while maintaining competitive performance against existing methods.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Sensitivity Shaping for Latent Modeling

arXiv:2606.14585v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generative dynamics models enable planning in challenging robotic systems, but safe deployment requires reliably detecting policy-induced out-of-distribution (OOD) transitions. Existing methods typically treat the learned dynamics as fixed and attach post hoc support surrogates. We show that these surrogates can fail when the dynamics are locally insensitive to critical action choices: unsupported control actions may produce latent predictions that resemble demonstrated transitions, suppressing OOD signals despite large true predictive errors. To address this, we introduce support-conditioned control-sensitivity regularization, which promotes sensitive local response to control input changes in learned dynamics in high-support training regions. This preserves control-induced variation while limiting unstable extrapolation due to weak empirical support. Experiments in vision-based obstacle avoidance, manipulation, and real-robot navigation show improved OOD detection and safer closed-loop planning.

05.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-12

The Geometry of Allostery: A Laplacian Minor Hierarchy for Many-Body Protein Communication

Quantifying how cooperative, many-body relationships drive allostery in protein networks remains a major challenge. To address this, we develop the Laplacian minor hierarchy, a mathematical framework that characterizes the geometric invariants of a protein network. Lower-order minors yield standard metrics including the partition function and effective distances, whereas higher-order minors define novel topological measures: cooperation indices, each bounded between zero and one, that characterize pathway correlations at increasing levels of complexity, the third-order minor determines whether allosteric pathways are correlated or uncorrelated, and the fourth-order minor quantifies how distinct pathways communicate through intermediary residues. We apply this framework to analyze the evolutionary adaptation of the PSD95pdz3 domain from Class I to Class II ligand specificity via mutations G330T and H372A. The cooperation index demonstrates a distinct evolutionary hierarchy: the G330T mutation establishes distributed pathway couplings that the H372A mutation subsequently exploits, whereas H372A alone produces minimal global changes. Furthermore, the fourth-order analysis identifies His317 as a critical intermediary node bridging the class-switching (330-372) and class-bridging (330-400) allosteric pathways. These results demonstrate that allosteric dependencies emerge only when mutations accumulate in specific combinations, with a hierarchical organization of pathways structured around position 330 and intermediary nodes His317 and Phe400. Rather than predicting allosteric mechanisms, this framework provides a mechanistic explanation for why and how allostery emerges during protein evolution.

06.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-22

EMAlign: accurate alignment of cryo-EM maps through main-chain probability using deep learning

Accurate alignment of cryo-EM density maps is essential for comparing conformational states, searching map libraries, and guiding atomic model building, but remains challenging for noisy experimental maps and partially overlapping structures. Existing alignment methods are often based on raw maps, which may result in reduced accuracy due to the density noise, or require manual intervention for local alignment, which suffers from limited general applicability. Addressing the limitations, we present EMAlign, an automatic global and local cryo-EM map alignment with predicted main-chain probability using deep learning. First, EMAlign predicts main-chain prob ability maps from raw cryo-EM density maps using a BiMCUNet network. Then, a fast Fourier transform (FFT)-based search strategy is used to globally search the accurate alignment between cryo-EM maps based on predicted main-chain probability maps. As such, the main-chain prob ability map overcomes the noisy raw map problem, and the FFT-based exhaustive global search ensures the general applicability of alignment. EMAlign is evaluated on 64 global map pairs, 195 local map pairs, and 60 structure-to-map pairs at 3-10 [A] resolution and compared with gmfit, fitmap, VESPER, and CryoAlign. It is shown that EMAlign outperforms the other methods in both global and local alignment, achieving mean RMSDs of 1.03 [A] (global), 2.56 [A] (local), and 0.82 [A] (structure-to-map), with success rates of 100.0%, 100.0%, and 98.3% under the criterion of RMSD < 10 [A]. The EMAlign package is freely available at https://github.com/huang-laboratory/EMAlign/.

07.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-16

FlowBench: separating planning, fault recovery and interpretation in agentic bioinformatics

Agentic large language model (LLM) systems are being deployed in bioinformatics faster than they are understood, and single-metric evaluations conflate capabilities that fail independently. We introduce FlowBench, a benchmark that decomposes agentic bioinformatics performance into planning, fault recovery, biological interpretation, and end-to-end output-fidelity. Existing systems achieve high plan completeness, but their closed, single-provider designs prevent attribution of performance to scaffolding versus the underlying model. We therefore built FlowAgent, a modular, provider-agnostic framework whose components can be selectively disabled and whose backbone model can be swapped across providers on a shared harness, and used it to evaluate 23 models from three main providers. Three findings emerge. First, generating a valid workflow plan from a named toolchain is largely solved, whereas inferring an appropriate toolchain from biological intent alone is uniformly difficult regardless of model tier, compressing all models into a narrow 44-57% pass-rate band. Second, ablation shows that the dependency-structured plan and a completeness-reflection step drive performance, while adding a same-context validator-driven retry makes structural quality worse. Third, fault recovery and data-grounded interpretation remain unsolved. Models frequently propose fixes that force a clean exit while leaving the underlying data invalid, and data-grounded interpretation lags internal-knowledge recall by a consistent margin. Safety does not emerge from capability, and reasoning-tier models were among the least reliable at recognising unrecoverable faults. Once planning saturates, agent architecture and refusal calibration, not model scale, are the productive frontier.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Language Shapes Mental Health Evaluations in Large Language Models

Multilingual large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in socially sensitive mental health contexts, including support chatbots, screening, and content moderation. This raises a reliability question: do semantically equivalent mental health inputs elicit comparable evaluations across languages, or systematic shifts consistent with language-associated social and cultural contexts? We examine this question in an English-Chinese setting with GPT-4o and Qwen3-32B using a two-level framework: construct-level evaluative orientation, measured by psychometric stigma instruments, and decision-level behavior, measured by binary stigma detection and four-class depression severity classification. Across instruments and models, Chinese prompts elicit higher stigma-related scores than English prompts. At the decision level, Chinese prompts reduce sensitivity to stigmatizing content and produce more conservative depression severity judgments, leading to more under-estimation errors. These findings show that prompt language can shift both evaluative orientation and downstream behavior in LLM-based mental health evaluation. They highlight the need to evaluate multilingual LLMs not only for aggregate performance, but also for whether they apply comparable evaluative standards across languages in socially sensitive domains.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Metriplectic Conditional Flow Matching for Dissipative Dynamics

arXiv:2509.19526v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Metriplectic conditional flow matching (MCFM) learns dissipative dynamics without violating first principles. Neural surrogates often inject energy and destabilize long-horizon rollouts; MCFM instead builds the conservative-dissipative split into both the vector field and a structure preserving sampler. MCFM trains via conditional flow matching on short transitions, avoiding long rollout adjoints. In inference, a Strang-prox scheme alternates a symplectic update with a proximal metric step, ensuring discrete energy decay; an optional projection enforces strict decay when a trusted energy is available. We provide continuous and discrete time guarantees linking this parameterization and sampler to conservation, monotonic dissipation, and stable rollouts. On a controlled mechanical benchmark, MCFM yields phase portraits closer to ground truth and markedly fewer energy-increase and positive energy rate events than an equally expressive unconstrained neural flow, while matching terminal distributional fit.

10.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Genetic overlap with schizophrenia and Parkinson's reveals psychomotor basis of physical activity

Background Physical activity levels are altered across neuropsychiatric disorders. While these traits are heritable, the genetic overlap between normal variation in activity levels and neuropsychiatric disorders that involve motor dysfunction such as schizophrenia and Parkinson's disease (PD) remains unexplored. Objectives To investigate the genetic overlap between physical activity, schizophrenia, and PD. Methods Multi-Trait Analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) was used to boost the GWAS power for objectively measured physical activity (n=89,683) by leveraging three GWAS of self-reported activity (n=124,842-377,234). Genetic overlap between the activity, schizophrenia and PD was characterized using linkage disequilibrium score regression, causal mixture modeling, and local genetic correlations. Pleiotropic variants were identified using the conjunctional false discovery rate, annotated to genes, and investigated for enrichment of biological processes, tissue types and association with GWAS-catalog traits. Results Genetic correlations of physical activity with schizophrenia and PD were negligible (rg=-0.02-0.02, p>0.05), but polygenic overlap was substantial, reflecting mixed effect directions. We identified 32 independent variants shared with schizophrenia and 11 with PD, including CRHR1, MAPT and KANSL1 within the 17q21.31 region. Schizophrenia-shared variants mapped to genes differentially expressed in subcortical regions, especially amygdala and basal ganglia. Gene-set analyses revealed enrichment for mental health and cognitive-behavioural traits (schizophrenia-shared genes) versus structural brain phenotypes and neurodegenerative disorders (PD-shared genes). Conclusions Despite negligible genetic correlations, physical activity shares substantial genetic architecture with schizophrenia and PD. Shared genes implicated brain regions and traits spanning motor and cognitive-affective function, consistent with the psychomotor nature of physical activity.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

TopoCast: A Topological Fidelity Framework for Evaluating Transformer-Based Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606.25439v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning-based models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF), yet their evaluation remains dominated by pointwise error metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), which quantify numerical accuracy but overlook structural properties of the forecast signal, including recurrent dynamics, oscillatory behavior, and phase alignment. As a result, forecasts exhibiting over-smoothing, phase shifts, or frequency distortions may achieve favorable error scores despite substantial structural degradation. To address this limitation, we propose TopoCast, a topology-driven framework for evaluating structural fidelity in TSF. TopoCast reconstructs phase-space representations of forecast and ground-truth sequences using Takens delay embedding and applies persistent homology to characterize their intrinsic dynamics. We derive four complementary topological fidelity measures from persistence diagrams and aggregate them into a Topological Fidelity Score (TFS). We further introduce dominant cycle overlap, a novel metric that maps persistent topological features to the temporal domain to assess whether dominant oscillatory patterns occur at the correct time points. Combined with TFS, this yields the Localized Topological Fidelity Score (LTFS), a phase-aware measure that captures temporal localization errors invisible to existing evaluation metrics. Experiments on five Transformer architectures across three real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that models with similar forecasting errors can exhibit markedly different structural fidelity profiles, revealing failure modes overlooked by conventional evaluation and highlighting the value of topology-aware forecast assessment.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

A Theory of Saddle Escape in Deep Nonlinear Networks

arXiv:2605.01288v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In deep networks with small initialization, training exhibits long plateaus separated by sharp feature-acquisition transitions. Whereas shallow nonlinear networks and deep linear networks are well studied, extending these analyses to deep nonlinear networks remains challenging. We derive an exact identity for the imbalance of Frobenius norms of layer weight matrices that holds for any smooth activation and any differentiable loss and use this to classify activation functions into four universality classes. On the permutation-symmetric submanifold, the identity combines with an approximate balance law to reduce the full matrix flow to a scalar ODE, giving a critical-depth escape time law $\tau_\star = \Theta(\varepsilon^{-(r-2)})$ governed by the number $r$ of layers at the bottleneck scale rather than the total depth $L$. We find that this same $r-2$ exponent is recovered under He-normal initialization with $r$ bottleneck layers rescaled by $\varepsilon$, where the symmetry manifold is preserved by the flow but not attracting. We find close agreement between our theory and numerical simulations.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Mitigating Heterogeneity-Induced Drift in Hierarchical Sign-Based Federated Learning

arXiv:2602.02355v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Hierarchical federated learning (HFL) is well suited for large-scale wireless and Internet of Things systems, where devices communicate with nearby edge servers before reaching the cloud. In these environments, uplink bandwidth and latency impose strict communication constraints, making aggressive gradient compression essential. One-bit sign-based stochastic gradient descent methods provide an attractive solution in flat federated settings, but their behavior in hierarchical edge–cloud architectures remains insufficiently understood, especially under inter-cluster data heterogeneity. To address this gap, we develop a sign-based HFL framework in which devices transmit binary stochastic-gradient signs to edge servers, edge servers apply majority voting, and the cloud periodically aggregates edge models. Our analysis reveals that inter-cluster heterogeneity induces a persistent bias term in the convergence bound, reflecting the drift of edge models toward local objectives. This term cannot be removed by increasing the number of training rounds or by tuning standard hyperparameters alone. We therefore propose \(\mathtt{DC-HierSignSGD}\), a drift-corrected sign-based HFL algorithm in which devices apply a cloud-assisted gradient correction before taking the sign. We show that this pre-sign correction mitigates the non-vanishing heterogeneity-induced bias while preserving binary device–edge communication during the repeated local sign-update steps. Experiments under severe inter-cluster heterogeneity demonstrate that \(\mathtt{DC-HierSignSGD}\) improves the stability and accuracy of sign-based HFL and achieves performance comparable to full-precision hierarchical SGD with substantially lower device–edge communication.

14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

MassSpecGym in the Wild: Uncovering and Correcting Evaluation Pitfalls in AI-Driven Molecule Discovery

arXiv:2606.19624v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable benchmarking is critical for developing machine learning models for tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) based molecule discovery. Subtle issues in experimental design and model evaluation procedures can degrade the trustworthiness of such benchmarks and lead to erroneous conclusions. We conduct a thorough review of model evaluation issues in the recent MS/MS machine learning literature, using the standard MassSpecGym benchmark suite as a case study to illustrate the impact of these issues. We find evaluation issues in at least 17 of 26 papers reporting MassSpecGym benchmark results in the first year of its adoption. We isolate three classes of failures: (i) data leakage, (ii) shortcut learning, and (iii) implementation bugs and metric divergence. Through extensive experimentation and code replication, we quantify the impact of these issues and show how they corrupt the evaluation standards MassSpecGym was designed to enforce. We distill our findings into recommendations generalizable to MS/MS challenges, benchmarks, and custom evaluation setups. We also release MassSpecGym v1.5, an implementation of our recommendations in the MassSpecGym benchmarking suite which addresses the failure modes identified in this audit. MassSpecGym v1.5 is publicly available at https://github.com/pluskal-lab/MassSpecGym.

15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Thermodynamic Signatures of Reasoning: Free-Energy and Spectral-Form-Factor Diagnostics for Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models

作者:

Hallucination detection in large language models (LLMs) is deployment-critical, and recent work shows that the spectrum of attention-derived graph Laplacians carries strong signal about reasoning quality. Prior spectral diagnostics, however, summarize the Laplacian spectrum by a handful of eigenvalues or hand-picked scalars, leaving most of its structure unused. We propose Free-Energy Signatures (Fes), a spectral descriptor that treats each layer's attention Laplacian as a Hamiltonian and extracts its thermodynamic potentials partition function, free energy, spectral entropy, heat capacity together with the random-matrix-theory (RMT) spectral form factor. We prove three results: (i)~Lipschitz stability of Fes under attention perturbation; (ii)~an expressiveness result showing that Fes enriches finite spectral summaries and approximates moment-derived spectral functionals under explicit regularity and grid-resolution assumptions; and (iii)~a finite-sample PAC bound on the AUROC of a training-free detector built from Fes. Empirically, across six open-weight LLMs and six benchmarks, a lightweight probe on Fes descriptors achieves the strongest aggregate AUROC among attention-spectral baselines, improving over LapEig by $+6.5$ AUROC points and over GoR-4 by $+2.4$ points on average, while requiring no update to the underlying LLM. In the fully unsupervised setting, an RMT-deviation score achieves mean AUROC $0.71$, providing a label-free but weaker detector. A complementary RMT analysis shows that correct generations exhibit more Wigner-Dyson like spectral statistics, whereas hallucinations exhibit more Poisson-like statistics. The anonymized code and config are provided in the supplementary material.

16.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

3D Ising criticality with Platonic lattice superconducting qubits

arXiv:2606.16854v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The three-dimensional (3D) Ising model is a foundational model in statistical physics and critical phenomena, yet its analytical intractability has long impeded the precise determination of universal critical exponents. While high-precision estimates have been obtained through classical numerical methods and conformal bootstrap techniques, a direct quantum simulation of the 3D Ising criticality remains challenging, requiring nontrivial connectivity, sufficient system size, and high spectral resolution. In this work, assisted by the state-operator correspondence of conformal field theory, we perform a digital quantum simulation of the 3D Ising critical exponents using a multiply-connected 9-qubit superconducting quantum processor with a Platonic lattice geometry. Employing an extended variational quantum eigensolver equipped with a phase-based loss function, we variationally prepare the low-energy eigenstates of the transverse-field Ising model on a cubic Platonic lattice encoded in an 8-qubit register. The four lowest eigenenergies are extracted via Fourier-transform analysis and high-precision numerical fitting, agreeing with the exact diagonalization values up to +/- 0.001. The resulting scaling dimension Delta_epsilon = 1.5850 and critical exponent nu = 0.7067 match well with theory.

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

BiWM: Advancing Open-Source Interactive Video World Models with Bidirectional Autoregression

Transitioning bidirectional video diffusion models into an autoregressive paradigm improves the interactivity of video world models, but existing causal pipelines need many stages (control fine-tuning, autoregressive training, causal initialization, few-step distillation) and still trail bidirectional models in quality due to error accumulation. Recent world models such as Yume-1.5 and Matrix-Game-3.0 instead adopt a bidirectional autoregressive approach, gaining fidelity and stable long-horizon rollout from self-correcting error propagation, yet open-source frameworks (e.g., minWM) support only causal models. We present BiWM, the first full-stack framework for interactive video world models under the bidirectional autoregressive paradigm, jointly optimizing generation quality and inference speed. From a pretrained video backbone, BiWM injects camera control by fine-tuning, then runs a few-step Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) stage that turns the backbone into an action/camera-controllable world model: just two training stages instead of four in minWM, converging in a few hundred steps on 8xH200 GPUs. A single recipe spans Wan2.1-1.3B, Wan2.2-5B, HunyuanVideo-1.5-8B, and LTX-2.3-22B, and also supports secondary fine-tuning of existing bidirectional models. BiWM enables real-world camera control where minWM loses controllability, integrates pluggable history compression (FramePack-style and PackForcing-style) for long rollouts, and offers an optional NVFP4 4-bit training/inference pipeline. To counter DMD's mode-seeking degradation, we add GAN and mass-covering forward-KL objectives that preserve scene dynamics. We open-source BiWM for resource-constrained research and high-fidelity environment simulation.

18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

HeteRo-Select: Informativeness as the Participation Driver in Heterogeneous Federated Learning

arXiv:2508.06692v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Federated learning systems typically allocate gradient compression by link speed. This is sensible when bandwidth and data informativeness align. However, under non-IID data, these signals often decorrelate or invert. A bandwidth-driven allocator then risks compressing the most informative gradients hardest. We propose HeteRo-Select, a framework that replaces bandwidth with a per-client informativeness score as the primary driver of compression. The score jointly governs three decisions per round: client selection, compression ratio, and server aggregation weight, with bandwidth retained only as a hard ceiling. Score-proportional selection provably reduces the effective heterogeneity of the chosen subset; score-proportional compression provably lowers aggregate top-$k$ error at fixed traffic. Under the exact FedCG simulation protocol, HeteRo-Select delivers a $1.78\times$ speedup and an $18.2\%$ reduction in traffic on CIFAR-10. The same configuration, unchanged, scales from a $7{,}850$-parameter logistic regression to an $11.27$M-parameter ResNet-18, hitting the accuracy target on three of four benchmarks. When bandwidth and informativeness are deliberately anti-correlated, the method still achieves the target accuracy with less traffic than the normal-bandwidth run.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Valid Inference with Synthetic Data via Task Exchangeability

arXiv:2606.13629v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: There is a proliferation of work arguing for the use of synthetic data in scientific research. For example, social scientists are arguing for the use of LLM-generated "silicon samples" in pilot studies; AI evaluations increasingly rely on "LLM-as-a-judge" outputs; and proteomics research is accelerated by generative models that produce synthetic protein structures. These developments raise an intriguing possibility: synthetic data may help researchers ask more questions, run more studies, and accelerate discovery. But they also raise a fundamental concern: synthetic data can be biased, noisy, and misspecified. In this work, we propose statistical principles for using synthetic data in scientific research with provable validity guarantees. The key insight is a new technical condition that we call task exchangeability. Informally, this is a requirement that the researcher can identify historical tasks, for which real data is available, such that their current task of interest is exchangeable with the historical tasks in an appropriate mathematical sense. We develop methods for valid inference under task exchangeability, together with extensions that provide guarantees even beyond exchangeability. We demonstrate the framework on public opinion surveys with silicon samples and AI evaluation with autoraters.

20.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-10

Estimating COVID-19 Cumulative Incidence from Seroprevalence Surveys accounting for Time-Varying Seroreversion: A Fully Bayesian Methodology

Seroprevalence surveys reveal the extent of humoral immunity against pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and under some circumstances represent cumulative incidence of prior infection. However, antibody waning - or seroreversion - biases these estimates by reducing assay sensitivity in a time-varying manner. Because assay sensitivity decays over time, naively using serosurveys can substantially bias estimates of SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence and fatality rates. The Bayesian assay-specific, time-varying sensitivity adjustment developed in this paper can reliably correct for this bias and account for the delay between infection and serosurvey. In seroprevalence studies conducted in the United States in 2020, adjusting for time-varying sensitivity increased cumulative incidence by up to 1.4-fold, with an adjustment of 1.08 for a national study. Our estimates contrast with a previously published 2-fold adjustment that did not account for assay design. This suggests that previous analyses overestimated cumulative incidence by applying seroreversion corrections that did not account for assay-specific effects, or underestimated cumulative incidence by not applying seroreversion corrections. These biases imply fatality rate underestimation and overestimation, respectively. Our model provides a framework for design-specific time-varying sensitivity corrections in seroprevalence surveys for other pathogens.

21.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Hormonal Contraceptives Drive Genital Lipid Metabolism Reprogramming and Susceptibility to HIV Infection

Heterosexual genital HIV transmission is a major driver of new infections, particularly in women, making them disproportionately vulnerable to HIV acquisition. Previous studies have associated injectable hormonal contraceptives (HC) with increasing susceptibility to HIV. Yet, the underlying molecular mechanism remains incompletely understood. Given the structural and signaling role of lipids in the female genital tract, cervicovaginal lipidomic profiling has the potential to reveal the mechanistic interplay among HC, lipidome, and HIV susceptibility in the female genital tract. We conducted untargeted cervicovaginal lipidomics study in a cohort of high-risk, HIV-negative, Kenyan sex workers who were using injectable depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA), oral contraceptive pill (OCP), or no hormonal contraception (NH). Genital lipids were quantitatively analyzed using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) and bioinformatics platforms. A total of 1045 lipid species were identified in the cervicovaginal lavage samples. Injectable DMPA significantly downregulated major structural and signaling membrane lipids, including phospholipids, ceramides, sphingomyelins, and glycosphingolipids (p

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Querying Counterfactuals on Tissue Graphs with Supervised Disentanglement

arXiv:2606.08493v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Tissue graph counterfactuals ask how a cell's expression would change under altered spatial neighbor contexts. Such queries are central to predicting cell behavior in tissues, but lack a unified definition, with existing methods targeting specific intervention types or treating cells as i.i.d. In this work, we first formalize tissue graph counterfactuals as a class of spatial interventions that either rewire connections between cells (edge perturbation) or modify the expression of their neighbors (node perturbation). We then introduce Cellina (https://cellina.readthedocs.io) - a framework that uses supervised disentanglement to decompose a cell's intrinsic state from its spatial context, using the latter as a conditioning input for counterfactual predictions. Across benchmarks spanning over 2.5 million spatially-resolved cells in colorectal cancer and mouse brain, Cellina outperforms spatially-informed and non-spatial competitors in in-silico graph perturbations, disentanglement, and scalability. Additionally, we show that Cellina reveals biologically distinct cancer subdomains in an unsupervised manner and enables targeted neighbor perturbation simulations.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Your "Pro" LLM Subscription May Actually Be "Free": Exposing Fingerprint Spoofing Risks in LLM Inference Services

As Large Language Model (LLM) APIs become ubiquitous, users increasingly rely on black-box fingerprinting to verify that providers are serving the advertised premium models. However, these methods may overlook adversarial providers who manipulate model weights to cheat the fingerprint process. We introduce a novel threat termed fingerprint spoofing, where a malicious provider stealthily serves a weaker model that has been parameter-efficiently fine-tuned to mimic a stronger model, thereby evading user-side fingerprinting. We first formally prove that user-side resource constraints (i.e., finite query budgets and weak fingerprinting classifiers) make current fingerprinting vulnerable to fingerprint spoofing. Guided by this theoretical analysis, we propose GhostPrint, a cost-effective attack framework leveraging surrogate modeling, reward-ranked fine-tuning, and knowledge distillation. Extensive evaluations in both static and continual fingerprinting settings demonstrate that GhostPrint allows weak models to consistently bypass representative fingerprint methods while maintaining utility at a low fine-tuning cost, exposing a critical vulnerability in current LLM fingerprinting pipelines.

24.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Approximately Decoding the Colour Code

作者:

arXiv:2606.18035v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recently we showed that minimum weight decoding in the (6.6.6 planar) colour code is NP-hard. However, it remained an open question as to whether it was possible to approximate the minimum weight decoding arbitrarily closely in polynomial time. In this paper we prove that it is possible: for any $\varepsilon>0$ there is an polynomial time algorithm that, given a syndrome, can find an error-set generating that syndrome whose weight is at most $1+\varepsilon$ times the weight of the minimum weight decoding. As a consequence we see that, for any $\varepsilon>0$, there is a polynomial time algorithm that can correct all errors of weight up to $(1-\varepsilon)d/2$ in the distance $d$ colour code (so almost up to the theoretical $d/2$ limit). The polynomial we give is impractically large, but it does open the door for sensible polynomial time algorithms that approximate minimum weight decoding and, in particular, shows that approximate decoding is not NP-hard.

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Non-frontal face recognition using GANs and memristor-based classifiers

Face recognition systems have advanced significantly through deep learning techniques, delivering high performance and robustness in complex scenarios. However, these approaches incur substantial computational overhead, limiting their in situ applicability in resource-constrained platforms such as drones, where they can address challenges including non-frontal facial imagery. Memristor-based neuromorphic systems have emerged as a compelling approach for edge AI applications, combining biologically inspired processing with efficient and scalable computation. In this work, we propose a facial recognition framework that addresses non-frontal pose variations by integrating lightweight generative adversarial network (GAN)-based pose frontalisation with memristor-based neuromorphic recognition. The experimental results on two datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of combining adversarial learning with memristive technology, achieving up to 96% identification accuracy. The proposed approach alleviates the computational bottlenecks of conventional AI and offers a scalable, efficient solution for face recognition in dynamic real-world environments.