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01.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Conditional means, vector pricings, amenability and fixed points in cones

作者:
Nicolas Monod↗

arXiv:2512.13829v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We develop a generalization of conditional probability for arbitrary ordered vector spaces. A related problem is that of assigning a numerical value to one vector relative to another. We characterize the groups for which these generalized probabilities can be stationary, respectively invariant. Our results deviate from the setting of classical probability and lead to a new criterion for amenability and for fixed points in cones.

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02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

From Uncertain Judgments to Calibrated Rankings: Conformal Elo Estimation for LLM Evaluation

作者:
Bora Kargi↗David Salinas↗

arXiv:2606.13221v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluating new large language models typically requires costly human annotation campaigns at scale. LLM-as-a-judge offers a cheaper alternative, but judge scores carry systematic errors - such as position bias, self-preference, or intransitivity - that can strongly miscalibrate the resulting rankings. We quantify the resulting judge-human disagreement at two complementary levels. At the local level, we estimate per-battle uncertainty from the judge's own score differences by propagating calibrated win probabilities rather than hard labels into the Bradley-Terry procedure. This alone provides a drastic improvement to Elo estimation accuracy, bringing LLM-derived ratings within 17.9 Elo MAE of human-derived ones when averaged over 55 held-out models on LMArena. At the global level, we apply split conformal prediction to the residual gap between LLM-derived and human-derived Elo ratings across held-out models, producing prediction intervals with distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees that account for irreducible LLM-human disagreement. Together, these two layers yield a low-cost evaluation tool that provides developers with calibrated Elo estimates and honest uncertainty bounds, without access to large-scale human annotations.To facilitate reproducibility, we release our code at https://github.com/kargibora/SoftElo .

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03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Online Shift Detection and Conformal Adaptation for Deployed Safety Classifiers

作者:
Jun Wen Leong↗

arXiv:2606.11949v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present an online monitoring system for distributional shift in deployed safety classifiers, using calibrated sequential statistics to detect when a classifier has moved out of distribution. Upon detection, a conformal abstention layer adapts decision thresholds to recover a target error rate epsilon=0.1. In a pre-registered factorial evaluation (4 classifiers x 5 shift conditions x 20 seeds x 2 window sizes, 800 cells), the system achieves 86.6% valid detection (693/800, 95% CI [84.1%, 88.8%]) with mean latency of 39.5 steps. Detection holds across three ground-truth regimes: synthetic onset (86.6%), real temporal jailbreaks (85%, 17/20), and GCG adversarial attacks. Weighted conformal prediction recovers up to 39 pp of lost coverage for DeBERTa (ESS=46/300) but collapses for all other classifiers (ESS~300): logistic density ratio estimation achieves perfect source/target separability in high-dimensional embedding spaces, clipping all importance weights to the floor. DeBERTa shows a gradient from effective correction (paraphrase, ESS=46) to near-total collapse (adversarial suffix, ESS=206). PCA to 32 dimensions breaks the collapse, recovering 33 pp for Llama Guard and 21 pp for ShieldGemma. Variance decomposition reveals classifier (eta^2=0.243), shift type (eta^2=0.237), and their interaction (eta^2=0.185) all contribute substantially to detection latency variance (all p

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04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Project Ariadne: Prompt-Conditioned Route Generation for Synthesis Planning

作者:
Anton Morgunov↗Victor S. Batista↗

arXiv:2606.24184v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrosynthetic planning seeks to connect a target molecule to commercially available starting materials through a multistep route. Classical planners construct such routes by iteratively applying single-step reaction models within a search procedure; constrained variants often require specialized algorithms or architectural changes. Direct route generation reframes retrosynthesis as sequence generation, but existing direct-generation methods still train separate models for different planning specifications. We introduce Ariadne, a decoder-only route generator that represents the target, optional constraints, and route in one prompt-completion sequence. On the RetroCast/PaRoutes mkt-cnv-160 benchmark family, one 24-layer checkpoint follows route-depth and required-starting-material prompts: adding the corresponding prompt fields raises Solv-0 by 13.7 points for depth constraints and 31.2 points for required-leaf constraints. Ariadne also improves over DESP, a bidirectional search planner, on required-leaf Top-10 and Solv-0 in 24 GPU-minutes versus 6.8 GPU-hours. On standard reconstruction, Ariadne is comparable to DMS Explorer XL at about half the reported inference time. Across additional target-only benchmarks, Ariadne's clearest gains are on route-holdout reconstruction, whereas AiZynthFinder MCTS remains stronger on several Solv-0 comparisons. These results extend sequence generation from specialist retrosynthesis models to prompt-conditioned structural route generation. We release the codebase and training scripts to support further work, but do not introduce Tier-1–3 route checkers; those remain the main bottleneck before models of this kind can become useful to experimental chemists.

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05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

Visual Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Silhouette-Guided Animal Art

作者:
Quoc-Duy Tran↗Anh-Tuan Vo↗Trung-Nghia Le↗

Generative AI has advanced the ability to render photorealistic or artistic images, yet it remains limited in a key aspect of human creativity: interpreting ambiguous shapes. This phenomenon, rooted in pareidolia, allows humans to perceive meaningful forms in random patterns such as clouds, stones, or leaves. To computationally replicate this imaginative process, we introduce Visual Retrieval-Augmented Generation (Visual-RAG), a framework that generates animal art directly from natural silhouettes. Our method retrieves structurally similar animal shapes from a curated corpus of 28,586 high-quality silhouettes and uses them as reference exemplars to guide diffusion-based generation with ControlNet and IP-Adapter. Ablation studies confirm that shape Context with RANSAC provides the most accurate alignment, while removing shape standardization reduces the inlier ratio to just 13.4\%, underscoring the importance of structural fidelity in Visual-RAG. A user study with 12 participants evaluated the outputs in terms of aesthetics, silhouette fidelity, and overall impression. Results reveal that while Visual-RAG provides plausible interpretations, challenges remain in achieving high perceptual impact. This work lays the foundation for computational pareidolia, showing how machines can contribute to the early stages of imaginative discovery.

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07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

The Answer Lies Within: Self-Derived Rewards Enable Explainable Relation Extraction

作者:
Xinyu Guo↗Zhengliang Shi↗Minglai Yang↗Mihai Surdeanu↗

Despite the remarkable reasoning capabilities of large language models, they still struggle with one-shot relation extraction without predefined relation labels. We identify two pitfalls: models are often misled by irrelevant tokens instead of relation-conveying semantics, and they often fail to align with the abstraction level human annotators expect. We introduce a novel framework that closes this gap with two components: (1) COGRE, a cognitively-inspired reasoning framework that structures RE into a series of processes mimicking human text-processing; and (2) HIT@DICT, a reinforcement learning intermediate reward strategy that encourages reasoning to align with relational labels by rewarding relation-relevant phrases in reasoning. The reward is derived on a credit dictionary automatically extracted from correct predictions. Our experiments show that our framework improves both accuracy and explanation quality by addressing these two pitfalls. For example, COGRE with Qwen2.5-14B-Instruct on One-shot NYT29 achieves 24.65% F1, surpassing prior reasoning-based designs. Optimizing this approach with RL using HIT@DICT further improves performance by +23.46% points. Finally, human evaluation shows that our best model generates relational phrases closely aligned with gold labels, increasing human explanation quality ratings by 54% (relative).

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08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

BitNet Text Embeddings

作者:
Zhen Li↗Xin Huang↗Liang Wang↗Nan Yang↗Ting Song↗Yan Xia↗Xun Wu↗Shaohan Huang↗Huishuai Zhang↗Furu Wei↗Dongyan Zhao↗

LLM-based text embedders have substantially improved retrieval and semantic representation quality, but their deployment remains costly: large backbone models slow down embedding inference, while high-dimensional full-precision embeddings impose substantial storage and bandwidth overhead on large-scale indexes. In this paper, we present BITEMBED, an extreme low-bit framework for LLM-based text embedding that jointly targets encoding efficiency and vector storage. BITEMBED converts pretrained LLM backbones into BitNet-style embedding encoders with ternary weights, quantized activations, and lightweight normalization refinement. The converted model is adapted to representation learning through continual contrastive pre-training, followed by supervised contrastive fine-tuning with both similarity-distribution distillation and attention-relation distillation from a full-precision teacher. Beyond quantizing the backbone, BITEMBED further trains output embeddings to support multiple storage precisions meeting different storage needs in various scenarios. Experiments on MMTEB (eng, v2) with Qwen3-0.6B and Gemma3-270M show that BITEMBED is largely comparable to full precision teacher embedders. Moreover, BITEMBED flexibly obtains text embeddings of various precisions, achieving a trade-off between performance and storage cost.

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09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Large-Scale OD Matrix Estimation with A Deep Learning Method

作者:
Zheli Xiong↗Defu Lian↗Enhong Chen↗Gang Chen↗Xiaomin Cheng↗

arXiv:2310.05753v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The estimation of origin-destination (OD) matrices is a crucial aspect of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). It involves adjusting an initial OD matrix by regressing the current observations like traffic counts of road sections (e.g., using least squares). However, the OD estimation problem lacks sufficient constraints and is mathematically underdetermined. To alleviate this problem, some researchers incorporate a prior OD matrix as a target in the regression to provide more structural constraints. However, this approach is highly dependent on the existing prior matrix, which may be outdated. Others add structural constraints through sensor data, such as vehicle trajectory and speed, which can reflect more current structural constraints in real-time. Our proposed method integrates deep learning and numerical optimization algorithms to infer matrix structure and guide numerical optimization. This approach combines the advantages of both deep learning and numerical optimization algorithms. The neural network(NN) learns to infer structural constraints from probe traffic flows, eliminating dependence on prior information and providing real-time performance. Additionally, due to the generalization capability of NN, this method is economical in engineering. We conducted tests to demonstrate the good generalization performance of our method on a large-scale synthetic dataset. Subsequently, we verified the stability of our method on real traffic data. Our experiments provided confirmation of the benefits of combining NN and numerical optimization.

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10.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

Preventing postpartum depression through mitigating breastfeeding grief: A convergent parallel mixed methods study

作者:
Aderibigbe↗Medina-Poeliniz↗Kausler↗Okorie↗Simonsen↗Latendresse↗

Background: Women who did not meet their breastfeeding goals often experience breastfeeding grief (BG) and may be likely to have postpartum depression (PD). Furthermore, PD is nearly twice as common in African American (AA) women as in Non-Hispanic White women. No research exists on BG and its role in PD. This study examined the BG experiences of AA women and its possible contributions to PD symptoms. Methods: A convergent parallel mixed methods design was used. A purposive sample of 16 AA women with children aged 6 months to 2 years with BG participated in individual semi-structured interviews about their experiences of BG and completed an online survey including the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Qualitative and quantitative data were analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis and descriptive statistics, respectively. Both data were integrated using joint display of data and side-by-side comparison. Results: The mean age of participants was 29.5 years. Four meaning-based themes about BG were generated including: We looked forward to breastfeeding, But it did not go as expected, So we grieve, and These would have helped. From quantitative results, 87.5% of participants reported a history of PD symptoms and almost 44% had EPDS scores >11. All participants reported that experiencing BG contributed to their PD symptoms. Findings suggest that BG influenced PD symptoms in AA women without prior diagnosis of depression. Conclusions: Qualitative and quantitative findings from this novel exploratory study revealed an overlap that AA women with BG report PD symptoms. Clinicians should support women to achieve their breastfeeding goals to prevent BG and PD. Keywords: African American; Breastfeeding grief; Mental health; Mixed methods; Postpartum depression

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11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Stabilizing Bandits using Regularization: Precise Regret and A Quantitative Central Limit Theorem

作者:
Budhaditya Halder↗Ishan Sengupta↗Koustav Chowdhury↗Samya Praharaj↗Koulik Khamaru↗

arXiv:2603.10184v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Statistical inference with bandit data presents fundamental challenges owing to adaptive sampling, which violates the independence assumptions underlying classical asymptotic theory. Recent work has identified stability~\citep{laiwei82} as a sufficient condition for valid inference under adaptivity. This paper first provides a refined stability condition, stated in terms of the iterates of an online algorithm, and shows that a large class of regularized stochastic-mirror-descent-style algorithms satisfy it. This refined condition allows us to strengthen the asymptotic results of~\citet{laiwei82} in several ways. First, we derive a non-asymptotic Berry–Esseen bound for the empirical reward estimates under adaptive sampling. Second, we derive matching non-asymptotic upper and lower bounds on the regret of the proposed algorithm, yielding a precise characterization of its regret. Third, we show that these regularized algorithms preserve asymptotic normality and valid inference under a prescribed level of adversarial corruption. Finally, we show that regularization is necessary rather than incidental: Lai–Wei stability is incompatible with the optimal $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret rate – the rate attained by unregularized algorithms such as EXP3 – so that a controlled, polylogarithmic inflation in regret is the price of valid inference.

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12.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Position: The Systemic Lack of Agency in Visual Reasoning

作者:
Yizhao Huang↗Haoyang Chen↗Shiqin Wang↗Pohsun Huang↗Jiayuan Li↗Haoyuan Du↗Yandong Shi↗Zheng Wang↗Zhixiang Wang↗

This paper argues that a systemic lack of Agency constrains the implicit reasoning capabilities of current Vision-Language Models (VLMs). Implicit reasoning refers to the ability to autonomously discover and utilize hidden visual evidence to bridge information gaps, rather than merely relying on explicitly specified targets. This capacity underlies human visual understanding and everyday reasoning. We argue that this limitation arises from a tendency to approach visual reasoning primarily as passive semantic retrieval, rather than as active, situated reasoning that depends on autonomous visual exploration. As a result, most existing benchmarks primarily assess Passive Capacity, leaving this aspect of reasoning largely unmeasured. To address this gap, we introduce the Visual Implicit Reasoning Diagnosing Benchmark (V-IRD), which targets this missing quadrant by requiring models to derive answers strictly through autonomous visual analysis. Our results show that, despite strong retrieval abilities, prominent VLMs struggle to utilize reference objects and to attend to visual evidence that requires self-directed inquiry. Simply put, strong semantic recognition does not equate to active visual exploration, revealing a critical gap in current VLMs. More information can be found at https://haoychen.github.io/Implicit-Reasoning/

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13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Deep Learning Approaches for 3D Medical Scene Completion: From Geometric Modeling to Generative Paradigms

作者:
Afifa Khaled↗Said Jadid Abdulkadir↗Majdy Mohamed Eltayeb Eltahir↗

arXiv:2606.24180v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Three-dimensional scene completion has evolved as a major problem in computer vision and robotics, and its applications are diverse, including autonomous navigation and augmented reality. In this study, a systematic review has been conducted to compile the research contributions made in the last ten years, i.e., 2016 to 2026, which has revolutionized the field from the voxel semantic completion paradigm represented by SSCNet to the latest paradigm that combines generative diffusion priors with real-time rendering using a Gaussian splatting technique. The evolution in representation paradigms, such as voxel grids, point learning, implicit neural fields, transformer networks, diffusion networks, and the latest paradigm based on rendering-aware 3D Gaussian primitives, has been discussed in this study. A comprehensive analysis has been carried out on the contributions made in the last ten years, and a taxonomy has been developed to provide a clear idea about the contributions made in the field. The study has also discussed the research contributions made in the field, along with the challenges that still need to be addressed. Finally, the study has presented a research agenda that will provide a clear idea about the directions that can be followed in the development of the next-generation system

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14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

AgentBeats: Agentifying Agent Assessment for Openness, Standardization, and Reproducibility

作者:
Xiaoyuan Liu↗Jianhong Tu↗Yuqi Chen↗Siyuan Xie↗Sihan Ren↗Tianneng Shi↗Gal Gantar↗Evan Sandoval↗Donghyun Lee↗Daniel Miao↗Peter J. Gilbert↗Nick Hynes↗…

arXiv:2606.13608v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agent systems are advancing quickly across domains, but their evaluation remains fragmented. Most benchmarks rely on fixed, LLM-centric harnesses that require heavy integration, create test-production mismatch, and limit fair comparison across diverse agent designs. The root problem is the lack of an open, agent-agnostic assessment interface. We advocate Agentified Agent Assessment (AAA), where evaluation is performed by judge agents and all participants interact through standardized protocols: A2A for task management and MCP for tool access. Conventional benchmarking defines two separate interfaces, one for the benchmark and one for the agent, while AAA only needs one; this yields a generic, unified framework that separates assessment logic from agent implementation and enables reproducible, interoperable, and multi-agent evaluation. We further introduce AgentBeats as a concrete realization of AAA: we identify five practical operation modes that make standardized assessment compatible with real-world constraints on openness, privacy, and reproducibility. To evaluate our design at scale, we conduct two studies: a five-month open competition that drew 298 judge agents across 12 categories together with 467 subject agents from independent participants, showing that AAA applies across a heterogeneous range of benchmarks; and a case study on coding agents that confirms agentified evaluation preserves fidelity with the public record while surfacing previously missing head-to-head results, yielding research insights about agent design. Combining a community-scale field study and a controlled coding case study, we verify that AAA delivers coverage, practicality, and fidelity across heterogeneous scenarios at scale. Together, AAA and AgentBeats offer a clear path toward open, standardized, and reproducible agent assessment.

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15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Omni-Perception Policy Optimization for Multimodal Emotion Reasoning

作者:
Zhiyuan Han↗Beier Zhu↗Wenwen Tong↗Pengyang Shao↗Peipei Song↗Xinyi Wang↗Jiangnan Chen↗Lewei Lu↗Xun Yang↗

arXiv:2606.25325v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We find that current emotion-oriented Omni-MLLMs still lack reliable omni-modal perception: they (i) underutilize multimodal cues in their reasoning trajectories and (ii) exhibit unfaithful behavior, often hallucinating modality-specific statements from other modalities. Building on these insights, we propose OPPO (Omni-Perception Policy Optimization), a reinforcement learning framework that explicitly optimizes multimodal perception. First, an Omni-Perception Reward decomposes ground-truth reasoning into fine-grained visual, acoustic, and emotion cues and rewards trajectories that semantically recover these cues. Second, an Omni-Perception Loss compares the policy under full and unimodally masked inputs, applying a KL penalty only to modality-specific evidence tokens to suppress cross-modal hallucination. We further introduce MEP-Bench, a diagnostic benchmark that quantifies utilization and faithfulness. Experiments show that OPPO achieves state-of-the-art performance on MER-UniBench and MME-Emotion, while substantially improving utilization and faithfulness scores on MEP-Bench, highlighting the importance of sufficient and faithful omni perception for multimodal emotion reasoning.

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16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

On-Device Neural Architecture Search

作者:
Andrea Mattia Garavagno↗Edoardo Ragusa↗Paolo Gastaldo↗Antonio Frisoli↗Claudio Loconsole↗

arXiv:2606.24900v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper proposes a new approach to near-sensor computing, in which a lightweight Neural Architecture Search (NAS) is performed directly on the deployment device to find the best tiny neural architecture for analyzing the real-time data acquired through sensors. This new adaptation capability can be particularly useful in the case of human-machine interfaces for which the neural network analyzing the biometrical data can be re-designed each time the user changes, after a guided data collection procedure, fighting the typical data variations between individuals on a new level. To implement the proposed approach a new NAS has been designed and then validated on the Italian Sign Language dataset (ISL), a collection of surface electromyography (sEMG) signals of the signs of the Italian alphabet, using several embedded systems. Moreover, further validation on the Case Western Reserve University dataset (CWRU), a benchmark for intelligent fault diagnosis, is presented to suggest another possible application of the proposed approach. When run on a Raspberry Pi 4, the proposed NAS performs beyond the state of the art proposing a tiny neural architecture having 0.63 times less RAM occupancy and 5.96 percentage points of more accuracy in the case of the ISL dataset; and 0.44 times less RAM occupancy and 0.2 percentage points of more accuracy in the case of the CWRU dataset.

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17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

MedP-CLIP: Medical CLIP with Region-Aware Prompt Integration

作者:
Jiahui Peng↗He Yao↗Jingwen Li↗Yanzhou Su↗Sibo Ju↗Yujie Lu↗Jin Ye↗Hongchun Lu↗Xue Li↗Lincheng Jiang↗Min Zhu↗Junlong Cheng↗…

Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) has demonstrated outstanding performance in global image understanding and zero-shot transfer through large-scale text-image alignment. However, the core of medical image analysis often lies in the fine-grained understanding of specific anatomical structures or lesion regions. Therefore, precisely comprehending region-of-interest (RoI) information provided by medical professionals or perception models becomes crucial. To address this need, we propose MedP-CLIP, a region-aware medical vision-language model (VLM). MedP-CLIP innovatively integrates medical prior knowledge and designs a feature-level region prompt integration mechanism, enabling it to flexibly respond to various prompt forms (e.g., points, bounding boxes, masks) while maintaining global contextual awareness when focusing on local regions. We pre-train the model on a meticulously constructed large-scale dataset (containing over 6.4 million medical images and 97.3 million region-level annotations), equipping it with cross-disease and cross-modality fine-grained spatial semantic understanding capabilities. Experiments demonstrate that MedP-CLIP significantly outperforms baseline methods in various medical tasks, including zero-shot recognition, interactive segmentation, and empowering multimodal large language models. This model provides a scalable, plug-and-play visual backbone for medical AI, combining holistic image understanding with precise regional analysis.

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18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Graph-Based Phonetic Error Correction of Noisy ASR

作者:
Pratik Rakesh Singh↗Mohammadi Zaki↗Aneesh Mukkamala↗Pankaj Wasnik↗

Automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems, despite low overall word error rates, produce residual lexical errors that disproportionately affect semantically critical tokens such as named entities, negations, and sentiment-bearing words. These errors are often structured, arising from phonetic similarity rather than random noise, making naive token-level correction insufficient. We propose a structured ASR correction framework, that we call G-SPIN, that combines phonetic graph modeling with contextual language understanding. A graph neural network (GNN) first constructs acoustically plausible candidate neighborhoods for flagged tokens, explicitly restricting the correction search space to phonetic alternatives. A masked language model (MLM) then provides local contextual scoring, and an instruction-tuned large language model (LLM) performs final context-aware re-ranking over this compact candidate set. By decoupling structured phonetic reasoning from contextual semantic selection, our method avoids unconstrained generation while improving correction accuracy. The framework is lightweight, modular, and operates entirely at inference time.

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19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

A Formal Framework for Declarative Agentic AI in Business Process Analysis

作者:
Mohammad Azarijafari↗Luisa Mich↗Michele Missikoff↗

arXiv:2606.15291v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agentic AI opens new opportunities for automating Business Process (BP), enabling autonomous decision-making and dynamic adaptation. However, realising this potential requires BP entities and their interactions to be defined with formal precision. This paper presents a formal framework for Agentic BP analysis through the AGO methodology. AGO captures the modelling perspective in terms of who is acting (Agents), why it is carried out (Goals), and what the relevant entities are (Objects). Grounded in set theory and mathematical logic, we formally define the AGO entity types and their interactions, organising all definitions into a BP Knowledge Base (BPKB). The resulting BPKB supports structured querying, incremental updates, and automatic generation of BP workflows, while ensuring soundness and completeness of the derived paths.

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20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Integrating national forest inventory, airborne lidar, and satellite imagery for wall-to-wall mapping of forest structure with computer vision

作者:
Luke J. Zachmann↗David D. Diaz↗Vincent A. Landau↗Chelsey Walden-Schreiner↗Tony Chang↗Nathan E. Rutenbeck↗Katharyn A. Duffy↗Kiarie Ndegwa↗Andreas Gros↗Scott Conway↗Guy Bayes↗

arXiv:2606.20291v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Remote sensing is increasingly relied upon to deliver actionable science for forest and wildfire risk management across large landscapes. Wall-to-wall, annually updated maps are a persistent need for effective forest management. Many planning systems and data collections combine disparate data sources with different purposes, vintages, and prediction quality, which leads to confounding behavior in operational planning systems. We introduce the VibrantForests framework, developed and applied to map forest attributes and provide a coherent foundation for effective forest and wildfire planning. VibrantForests includes a satellite-based forest structure model trained on lidar-derived samples and applied across the contiguous United States to concurrently generate estimates of canopy cover, canopy height, aboveground live tree biomass, basal area, and quadratic mean diameter at 10-meter resolution. We demonstrate predictive capability spanning the full spectrum of forest conditions ranging from sparse-canopy/low-biomass to dense-canopy/high-biomass. Results show that our model extends the range at which saturation is commonly encountered in comparable passive-sensor models, and reduces regression-to-mean behavior that commonly produces overestimation of forest attributes in small/sparse conditions and underestimation in large/dense conditions. The VibrantForests framework addresses a key limitation in large-area forest and wildfire planning by delivering coherent wall-to-wall estimates of management-relevant attributes at annual cadence and 10m resolution.

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21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

MolmoMotion: Forecasting Point Trajectories in 3D with Language Instruction

作者:
Jianing Zhang↗Chenhao Zheng↗Yajun Yang↗Max Argus↗Rustin Soraki↗Winson Han↗Taira Anderson↗Chun-Liang Li↗Shuo Liu↗Jiafei Duan↗Zhongzheng Ren↗Jieyu Zhang↗…

Motion forecasting is central to visual intelligence: agents must anticipate how objects will move in order to plan actions, reason about physical interactions, and synthesize realistic futures. We argue that 3D points in world coordinates provide a general representation that is class-agnostic, view-stable, compact, and directly useful for downstream tasks. We formalize the task of goal-conditioned 3D point motion forecasting: given a short visual history, a set of 3D query points on an object of interest, and a language description of the intended goal, the model predicts the future 3D trajectory of each point. We introduce a full stack to study this task at scale: (1) MolmoMotion-1M is a large corpus of action-described, object-grounded 3D point trajectories annotated from 1.16M unconstrained videos; (2) PointMotionBench is a human-verified benchmark spanning 111 object categories and 61 motion types; and (3) MolmoMotion is a general motion forecasting model that supports both autoregressive coordinate prediction and flow-matching-based trajectory generation. MolmoMotion accurately predicts diverse motion patterns with different language instructions, and significantly outperforms existing motion prediction baselines on PointMotionBench. Finally, we show that the learned 3D motion prior transfers well to downstream applications: it improves training efficiency and generalization for robot manipulation, and its predicted trajectories provide effective motion guidance for generative models to synthesize videos with more realistic object motion.

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22.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-25

Mean-field games with rough common noise: the linear-quadratic case

作者:
Peter K. Friz↗Ioannis Gasteratos↗Ulrich Horst↗Stefanos Theodorakopoulos↗

arXiv:2602.19210v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Motivated by mean-field games (MFG) with common noise on the one hand and pathwise stochastic control theory on the other, we formulate here a linear-quadratic (LQ) MFG with rough common noise, along with a satisfactory well-posedness theory for the linear-quadratic case. A novel Volterra-type (or mild) formulation allows to keep technical (rough-stochastic) consideration to a minimum. We derive a characterization of the optimal state and optimal control through a rough forward-backward SDE (rough FBSDE), and provide an existence and uniqueness result under the usual assumptions. Our theory is accompanied by stability estimates with respect to initial data and common noise while we also establish continuity of what we call the Itô-Lions-Lyons map for rough mean-field games. Finally, we discuss randomization of the rough common noise under appropriate conditions on the coefficients. When the latter is given by the Stratonovich lift of a Brownian motion independent of the idiosyncratic noise, we show that solutions of the rough LQ MFG coincide with those obtained by conditioning on the common noise.

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23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Temporal Validation Changes the Apparent Public-Health Utility of Under-Five Mortality Prediction in Bangladesh: A Four-Round DHS Machine-Learning Study

作者:
Md Muhtasim Munif Fahim↗M. Monimul Huq↗M. Sabiruzzaman↗Md Rezaul Karim↗

arXiv:2602.03957v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Background: Under-five mortality in Bangladesh remains uneven despite national progress. DHS-based prediction models may guide targeted follow-up, but only if validation reflects future use. We examined how validation design changes apparent prediction performance. Methods: Four BDHS rounds (2011-2022; 33,962 children; 1,290 deaths) were analysed with a 26-feature pipeline and three model classes under four validation regimes, including cross-survey temporal validation (train 2011+2014, calibrate 2017, test 2022). A 32-unit ELU multilayer perceptron was selected via genetic-algorithm neural architecture search. AUROC used 2,000 bootstrap resamples; screening utility used sensitivity, PPV, and number needed to screen (NNS) at fixed capacity. Results: Validation regime altered public-health interpretation more than model class. NAS MLP AUROC ranged from 0.669 (2022-only random) to 0.775 (pooled random), with temporal AUROC 0.730. At the top-10% temporal threshold, NAS identified 152/355 deaths in 2022 (sensitivity 42.8%, PPV 13.2%, NNS 7.6). NNS across designs ranged from 5.6 to 11.0. Conclusions: Validation-regime choice changed screening workload and apparent policy value more than architecture. Temporal validation supports defensible estimates of follow-up and referral demand; DHS child-mortality studies should report sensitivity, PPV, and NNS before programmatic use.

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24.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

World Tracing: Generative Pixel-Aligned Geometry Beyond the Visible

作者:
Hao Zhang↗Mohamed El Banani↗Jen-Hao Cheng↗Paul Zhang↗Yi Hua↗Ben Mildenhall↗Christoph Lassner↗Narendra Ahuja↗Gengshan Yang↗

Image-to-3D methods often trade off faithfulness and completeness: depth estimators are anchored to input pixels but stop at the visible surface, while image-to-3D models generate complete shapes that are often misaligned with the input. We introduce World Tracing, a generative pixel-aligned geometry representation that predicts 3D points aligned with observed pixels while completing geometry beyond the visible surface. For each input pixel, World Tracing predicts an ordered stack of camera-space 3D points, where the first layer represents the visible surface and subsequent layers represent front-to-back intersections with occluded surfaces. We instantiate this representation with a world-tracing diffusion transformer, WT-DiT, which treats multiple geometry layers as separate denoising tokens coupled through factorized and global attention. WT-DiT is trained with pixel-space flow matching and a mixed noise schedule that balances visible-surface reconstruction with occluded-geometry generation. World Tracing achieves strong performance on visible-surface reconstruction and complete geometry generation across object, scene, and dynamic benchmarks, outperforming both depth predictors and image-to-3D generators. It also preserves 2D-to-3D correspondence, enabling text-driven 3D scene editing, geometry-conditioned novel-view video synthesis, and training-free integration with textured-mesh generators.

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25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Given, When, Then, Again: Mining Subscenario Refactoring Candidates in Behaviour-Driven Test Suites with ML Classifiers and LLM-Judge Baselines

作者:
Ali Hassaan Mughal↗Noor Fatima↗Muhammad Bilal↗

Context. Behaviour-Driven Development (BDD) test suites accumulate duplicated step subsequences. Three published refactoring patterns are available (within-file Background, within-repo reusable-scenario invocation, cross-organisational shared higher-level step), but no prior work automates which recurring subsequences are worth extracting or which mechanism applies. Objective. Rank recurring step subsequences ("slices") by refactoring suitability (extraction-worthy), pre-map each to one of the three patterns, and quantify prevalence across the public BDD ecosystem. Method. Every contiguous L-step window (L in [2, 18]) in a 339-repository / 276-upstream-owner Gherkin corpus is keyed by paraphrase-robust cluster identifiers and counted under three scopes. SBERT / UMAP / HDBSCAN clustering recovers paraphrase-equivalent slices. Three authors label a stratified 200-slice pool against a written rubric. An XGBoost extraction-worthy classifier trained under 5-fold cross-validation is compared with a tuned rule baseline and two open-weight Large Language Model (LLM) judges. Results. The miner produces 5,382,249 slices collapsing to 692,020 recurring patterns. Three-author Fleiss' kappa = 0.56 (extraction-worthy) and 0.79 (mechanism). The classifier reaches out-of-fold F1 = 0.891 (95% CI [0.852, 0.927]), outperforming both the rule baseline (F1 = 0.836, p = 0.017) and the better LLM judge (F1 = 0.728, p = 1.5e-4). 75.0%, 59.5%, and 11.7% of scenarios carry a within-file Background, within-repo reusable-scenario, and cross-organisational shared-step candidate, respectively; the figures are stable under a sweep of the classifier decision threshold. Conclusion. Paraphrase-robust subscenario discovery yields a corpus-wide census of BDD refactoring candidates; pipeline, classifier predictions, labelled pool, and rubric are released under Apache-2.0.

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