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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Radar-Guided Polynomial Fitting for Metric Depth Estimation

We propose POLAR, a novel radar-guided depth estimation method that introduces polynomial fitting to efficiently transform scaleless depth predictions from pretrained monocular depth estimation (MDE) models into metric depth maps. Unlike existing approaches that rely on complex architectures or expensive sensors, our method is grounded in a fundamental insight: although MDE models often infer reasonable local depth structure within each object or local region, they may misalign these regions relative to one another, making a linear scale and shift (affine) transformation insufficient given three or more of these regions. To address this limitation, we use polynomial coefficients predicted from cheap, ubiquitous radar data to adaptively adjust predictions non-uniformly across depth ranges. In this way, POLAR generalizes beyond affine transformations and is able to correct such misalignments by introducing inflection points. Importantly, our polynomial fitting framework preserves structural consistency through a novel training objective that enforces local monotonicity via first-derivative regularization. POLAR achieves state-of-the-art performance across three datasets, outperforming existing methods by an average of 24.9% in MAE and 33.2% in RMSE, while also achieving state-of-the-art efficiency in terms of latency and computational cost.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

HAARES Half-Split Residual Basis Routing for Deep Transformers

作者:

arXiv:2606.06564v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Block-level residual routing makes learned residual aggregation practical by routing over block summaries, but each summary compresses an ordered sequence of attention and MLP updates into one cumulative vector. We propose \method{}, a lightweight residual basis router that keeps the cumulative block source and adds one half-split detail basis, computed as the difference between first-half and second-half residual updates. The detail basis is RMS-matched and updated online, exposing coarse intra-block trajectory information without dense sublayer-level routing. Across OpenWebText, cross-domain character-level benchmarks, and BPE-tokenized OpenWebText, the empirical pattern is depth-dependent: gains are small or mixed at shallow depth and most reliable in 48-layer models. In the 201M 48-layer setting, \method{} improves over Block AttnRes across all three seeds, while a 453M two-seed probe shows the same direction. Ablations rule out source duplication, random signed details, fixed detail-source biases, or block-count changes alone. Cost analysis shows that the method is FLOP-light but not wall-clock-free: it adds memory and routing overhead, yet its relative arithmetic cost is amortized as width grows and earlier convergence can reduce time-to-target.

03.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Purity and bound energy in ancilla-assisted work extraction

arXiv:2606.19945v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We investigate ancilla-assisted work extraction in quantum batteries from the perspective of bound energy and purity. We show that the bound energy of the reduced system provides a tight upper bound to the daemonic gain and that this bound is saturated for globally pure system–ancilla states. Motivated by this relation, we introduce a purity-based gain that qualitatively predicts the daemonic gain without requiring explicit optimization over measurements. We further introduce a protocol to analyze the role of dissipation and intrinsic interactions on daemonic gain. Under a collective environment, dissipation can dynamically generate and stabilize finite daemonic gain through environment-induced correlations. In interacting systems, level crossings and spectral restructuring strongly modify the attainable gain through their influence on the accessible bound energy. Our results demonstrate that daemonic gain is governed not only by correlations, but also by the spectral structure of the underlying Hamiltonian and information loss captured by bound energy and purity.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Is Code Better Than Language for Algorithmic Reasoning

arXiv:2606.15589v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: For tool-augmented language models, comparing natural-language reasoning with code-execution pipelines is difficult because the comparison changes both the intermediate representation and the execution mechanism. We separate these factors with an intermediate intervention: the model expresses its reasoning as executable code, and the language model simulates that code in context to produce an answer. On a 40-task verifiable algorithmic benchmark, deterministic code execution outperforms natural-language reasoning by +31.6pp. We observe that the intermediate intervention is not meaningfully different from natural-language reasoning (+0.15pp). These results suggest that, in our evaluated setting, changing the intermediate representation alone does not explain the tool-use advantage, providing evidence for the performance gains requiring reliable external execution. We formalize this intuition with a simple statistical decision-theoretic model that characterizes when execution dominates end-to-end risk in our disentangled trace-generation/execution regime. We validate our theory using a reconstruction intervention that leverages a proxy language model to infer natural-language reasoning traces from code representations, recovering performance comparable to the original natural-language reasoning pipeline. All experiments are at https://github.com/TerryTong-Git/ToolProj.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

The Data Manifold under the Microscope

arXiv:2606.15760v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A significant gap exists between theory and practice in deep learning. Generalization and approximation error bounds are often derived for simplified models or are too loose to be informative. Many rely on the manifold hypothesis and on geometric regularity such as intrinsic dimension, curvature, and reach. Progress requires insight into data-manifold geometry and suitable benchmarks, yet existing options are polarized: analytic manifolds with known geometry but limited applicability, or real-world datasets where geometry is only coarsely estimable. We introduce a benchmarking framework for studying data geometry. We repurpose and extend dSprites and COIL-20 with additional transformation dimensions and dense, axis-aligned sampling, and pair them with finite-difference estimators that recover curvature, reach, and volume at near-ground-truth accuracy in a regime where general-purpose estimators are unreliable or difficult to deploy. The framework is intended as a controlled testbed, useful as a calibration environment for geometric estimators and a sandbox for probing theoretical assumptions. To illustrate its use, we present two application studies, namely assessing the scaling behavior of the bounds of Genovese et al. and Fefferman et al., and tracking the layer-wise geometry of a $\beta$-VAE, highlighting the behavior of current bounds and the value of controlled benchmarks for guiding and validating future theory. A reference implementation is available at https://github.com/koulakis/manifold-microscope.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

When Generic Prompt Improvements Hurt: Evaluation-Driven Iteration for LLM Applications

Evaluating Large Language Model (LLM) applications differs from conventional software testing because outputs are probabilistic, semantically variable, and sensitive to prompt and model changes. This technical report proposes the Minimum Viable Evaluation Suite (MVES), an audit-oriented structure for application-level LLM evaluation. MVES links application categories to failure modes, metrics, required artifacts, and validation evidence across general LLM applications, retrieval-augmented systems, and agentic workflows. We pair the framework with a reproducible local evaluation harness covering structured extraction, RAG citation/content-compliance, and instruction-following checks. Using Ollama with Llama 3 8B Instruct and Qwen 2.5 7B Instruct, we evaluate five prompt conditions over expanded 30-case-per-suite ablations. The results show that, in the tested local conditions, generic prompt additions do not produce monotonic improvements: stronger output-contract prompts improve strict extraction for both models, while RAG citation/content-compliance declines under some generic-rule conditions. The largest observed decline occurs for Qwen 2.5 on RAG when generic rules are appended to the user prompt, from 26/30 to 9/30. These findings support evaluation-driven prompt iteration: prompt changes should be treated as potential regression risks and tested against task-specific suites before deployment. The accompanying repository contains the test suites, prompt variants, evaluation harness, raw result logs, and scripts needed to reproduce the reported local ablations.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Spatially Coupled Phase-to-Depth Calibration for Fringe Projection Profilometry

In fringe projection profilometry (FPP), depth is commonly recovered by fitting a phase-to-depth relation independently at each camera pixel. Although such pixel-wise calibration achieves high local accuracy, neighboring pixels can acquire markedly different calibration functions even when they observe the same smooth surface, producing spatially inconsistent geometry and structured surface artifacts. We propose a spatially coupled phase-depth transformation in which all pixels share a single low-dimensional mapping-global phase scalars combined with affine spatial terms on the undistorted reference-camera grid-rather than independent per-pixel fits, optionally augmented by a bounded, spatially smooth correction field. We further introduce a native-grid pairing scheme that constructs phase-depth calibration pairs directly on the reference-camera grid: when depth supervision comes from a rectified active-stereo pipeline, planes are fitted in stereo 3D and sampled back onto the camera grid along native rays, so the phase maps are never rectified. On a dental target with high-resolution scanner ground truth, the proposed model attains point-to-surface RMSE comparable to an active-stereo reference (about 12{\mu}m aggregate) while substantially improving spatial coherence over pixel-wise polynomial and rational calibration, and reduces the runtime mapping to a few element-wise operations per pixel with negligible parameter storage.

08.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Microbial-based yeast protein is similar to whey protein and greater than collagen hydrolysate in supporting whole-body protein synthesis as determined by the indicatory amino acid oxidation method: a randomized controlled trial

Background: Yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) is a model organism in agricultural and industrial fermentation with nutritional benefits, yet less is understood about its nutritional value for supporting whole-body protein synthesis in vivo, and its comparison to animal-based protein. Objective: This study aimed to determine the effect of microbial-based protein (yeast) compared to a high (whey) and low (collagen) quality animal-based protein on the ability to support whole-body protein synthesis using the indicator amino acid oxidation technique. Methods: Thirteen healthy participants (M: n=6, 24{+/-}4 yr; F: n=7, 27{+/-}7 yr) consumed eight hourly yeast (Y), whey (W), or collagen (CH) protein beverages at 0.9 g{middle dot}kg-1{middle dot}d-1 supplemented with L-[1-13C]phenylalanine in a randomized, cross-over, counterbalanced design. Breath and urine were collected to measure fraction of expired 13CO2 (F13CO2) and [1-13C]Phe oxidation (PheOx) as inverse correlates of whole-body protein synthesis. An a priori 20% noninferiority margin was used to determine equivalency between protein sources. A Visual Analog Scale (VAS) was provided to assess fullness and hunger by protein sources. Results: Protein source had no effect on F13CO2 (P=0.15) or PheRa (P=0.10). PheOx was greater in CH compared to both Y (14.94{+/-}2.16 vs. 12.93{+/-}2.80 mol{middle dot}kg BM-1{middle dot}h-1, P

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

VitalAgent: A Tool-Augmented Agent for Reactive and Proactive Physiological Monitoring over Wearable Health Data

arXiv:2605.29483v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Wearable devices enable continuous monitoring of physiological signals such as ECG and PPG, but existing mHealth systems are largely limited to task-specific prediction pipelines or reactive question answering over static summaries. They lack the ability to support temporal reasoning, persistent physiological context, and proactive monitoring over long-term signal streams. We propose VitalAgent, a tool-augmented agentic framework for ECG/PPG-based mHealth that supports both reactive question answering and proactive monitoring. VitalAgent is built on a longitudinal physiological memory and a tool-augmented reasoning interface that enables dynamic computation over raw signals. We further introduce VitalBench, a longitudinal physiological monitoring benchmark dataset comprising 1,862 QA pairs for reactive question answering and 90.2 hours of continuous ECG/PPG recordings for proactive monitoring, covering cardiac, physical activity, and stress-related tasks. Experiments demonstrate that VitalAgent achieves over 25% improvement over prompt-based and ReAct baselines in reactive evaluation and supports proactive alert monitoring over long-term physiological signals, highlighting the importance of dynamic tool use and long-term physiological monitoring.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Noise-Driven Exploration and Transient Freezing Select Flat Minima in Stochastic Gradient Descent

arXiv:2601.10962v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is central to deep learning, yet the dynamical origin of its preference for flatter, more generalizable solutions remains unclear. Here, by analyzing SGD learning dynamics, we identify a nonequilibrium mechanism that governs solution selection during training. Numerical experiments reveal a transient exploratory phase in which SGD trajectories repeatedly escape sharp valleys and migrate toward flatter regions of the loss landscape before becoming confined to a final basin. Using a tractable physical model, we show that SGD noise reshapes the loss landscape into an effective potential that preferentially stabilizes flat solutions. We further uncover a transient freezing mechanism: as training progresses, the flattening landscape suppresses transitions between competing valleys. Stronger SGD noise delays this freezing transition, prolonging the exploratory phase and thereby increasing the probability of convergence to flatter minima. Together, these results provide a unified physical framework connecting learning dynamics, loss-landscape geometry, and generalization, and suggest guiding principles for the design of more effective optimization algorithms.

11.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Persistence diagrams of random triangular matrices over finite fields

arXiv:2606.17895v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Let us consider a random infinite lower triangular matrix, where the entries on and below the diagonal are i.i.d. uniform random elements of a fixed finite field. We investigate the evolution of the span of the first $n$ rows of this matrix as $n$ grows. Many properties of this evolving subspace can be captured with the help of the verbose persistence diagram, which is a standard tool in stochastic topology and topological data analysis. We give an explicit formula for the distribution of the persistence diagram. We prove a law of large numbers for the distribution of lifetimes. We also describe the fluctuations of the persistent Betti numbers.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Robust Transformer-Based One-Step Stock Index Forecasting via Shifted Data Augmentation

arXiv:2606.15701v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Transformers have shown remarkable success in sequence modeling, yet their direct application to financial time series remains challenging due to noisy signals, short-memory dynamics, and distributional shifts. This paper proposes a modified Transformer architecture for one-step stock index forecasting, combined with advanced learning-rate scheduling and a novel Shifted Data Augmentation (SDA) technique. We evaluate the proposed framework on two benchmark stock index datasets, VN30 and S&P 500. Experimental results demonstrate that cosine annealing with warmup consistently improves forecasting accuracy over the generalized inverse-power scheduler. Furthermore, SDA substantially reduces forecasting errors and run-to-run variability while improving robustness to hyperparameter selection. The combination of cosine annealing scheduling and SDA achieved the best performance on both datasets, indicating that data augmentation can play a more important role than increasing model complexity in Transformer-based financial forecasting. These findings provide a practical and computationally efficient approach for robust stock index forecasting in noisy financial environments.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

DeepInflation: an AI agent for research and model discovery of inflation

arXiv:2601.14288v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present DeepInflation, an AI agent designed for research and model discovery in inflationary cosmology. Built upon a multi-agent architecture, DeepInflation integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) with a symbolic regression (SR) engine and a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) knowledge base. This framework enables the agent to automatically explore and verify the vast landscape of inflationary potentials while grounding its outputs in established theoretical literature. We demonstrate that DeepInflation can successfully discover simple and viable single-field slow-roll inflationary potentials consistent with the latest observations (with the ACT DR6 results taken as an example) or any given $n_s$ and $r$, and provide accurate theoretical context for obscure inflationary scenarios. DeepInflation serves as a prototype for a new generation of autonomous scientific discovery engines in cosmology, which enables researchers and non-experts alike to explore the inflationary landscape using natural language. This agent is available at https://github.com/pengzy-cosmo/DeepInflation.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

NeuralMUSIC: A Hybrid Neural-Subspace Framework for Robot Sound Source Localization

arXiv:2606.18664v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable sound source localization is fundamental to robot audition, enabling autonomous robots to perceive spatial cues and operate effectively in dynamic environments. Classical methods such as Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) offer strong theoretical foundations but degrade under low signal-to-noise ratios. While deep learning-based approaches achieve promising performance, they often struggle with limited generalization across conditions. To address these challenges, we propose NeuralMUSIC, a hybrid neural-subspace framework for robotic sound source localization. Specifically, a neural network first estimates the spatial covariance matrix from multichannel microphone observations. The predicted covariance is then integrated into a classical MUSIC pipeline with eigenvalue decomposition (EVD) and pseudo-spectrum computation, followed by a Frequency Attention Fusion (FAF) module to produce the final DOA estimates. To improve data efficiency, we further introduce a Self-supervised Spatial Correlation Learning (SSCL) strategy that leverages unlabeled acoustic data to capture spatial structure. Extensive experiments across different robotic tasks demonstrate that NeuralMUSIC achieves competitive localization accuracy while exhibiting improved robustness and cross-domain generalization.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

Did Models Learn Sufficiently? Attribution-Guided Training via Subset-Selected Counterfactual Augmentation

In current visual model training, models often rely on only limited sufficient causes for their predictions, which makes them sensitive to distribution shifts or the absence of key features. Attribution methods can accurately identify a model's critical regions. However, masking these areas to create counterfactuals often causes the model to misclassify the target, while humans can still easily recognize it. This divergence highlights that the model's learned dependencies may not be sufficiently causal. To address this issue, we propose Subset-Selected Counterfactual Augmentation (SS-CA), which integrates counterfactual explanations directly into the training process for targeted intervention. Building on the subset-selection-based LIMA attribution method, we develop Counterfactual LIMA to identify minimal spatial region sets whose removal can selectively alter model predictions. Leveraging these attributions, we introduce a data augmentation strategy that replaces the identified regions with natural background, and we train the model jointly on both augmented and original samples to mitigate incomplete causal learning. Extensive experiments across multiple ImageNet variants show that SS-CA improves generalization on in-distribution (ID) test data and achieves superior performance on out-of-distribution (OOD) benchmarks such as ImageNet-R and ImageNet-S. Under perturbations including noise, models trained with SS-CA also exhibit enhanced generalization, demonstrating that our approach effectively uses interpretability insights to correct model deficiencies and improve both performance and robustness.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

From Noise to Order: Learning to Rank via Denoising Diffusion

arXiv:2602.11453v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Learning-to-rank (LTR) methods have traditionally been limited to discriminative machine learning approaches that model the probability of the document being relevant to the query given some feature representation of the query-document pair. We propose an alternative denoising diffusion-based generative approach to LTR that instead models the full joint distribution over features and relevance labels. While in discriminative LTR, an over-parameterized ranking model may find different ways to fit the training data, we posit that candidate solutions that can explain the full data distribution under the generative setting maybe better at estimating relevance. Thus, we propose DiffusionRank that extends TabDiff, an existing diffusion model for tabular datasets, to create generative alternatives to classical discriminative pointwise and pairwise LTR objectives. Our work demonstrates improvements from DiffusionRank over discriminative counterparts on four standard LTR datasets and points to a rich space for future exploration to leverage ongoing advancements in deep generative models for LTR. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/sadjadeb/DiffusionRank.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Graph-Based Phonetic Error Correction of Noisy ASR

Automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems, despite low overall word error rates, produce residual lexical errors that disproportionately affect semantically critical tokens such as named entities, negations, and sentiment-bearing words. These errors are often structured, arising from phonetic similarity rather than random noise, making naive token-level correction insufficient. We propose a structured ASR correction framework, that we call G-SPIN, that combines phonetic graph modeling with contextual language understanding. A graph neural network (GNN) first constructs acoustically plausible candidate neighborhoods for flagged tokens, explicitly restricting the correction search space to phonetic alternatives. A masked language model (MLM) then provides local contextual scoring, and an instruction-tuned large language model (LLM) performs final context-aware re-ranking over this compact candidate set. By decoupling structured phonetic reasoning from contextual semantic selection, our method avoids unconstrained generation while improving correction accuracy. The framework is lightweight, modular, and operates entirely at inference time.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Graph Regularized Non-negative Reduced Biquaternion Matrix Factorization for Color Image Recognition

Non-negative reduced biquaternion matrix factorization (NRBMF) uses the product of reduced biquaternion (RB) matrices to incorporate the non-negativity constraints of color image pixels into the factorization process. However, NRBMF mainly focuses on reconstruction accuracy and does not explicitly exploit the local geometric structure of image data, which may limit the discriminative ability of the obtained low-dimensional coefficient representations. To address this issue, we propose a graph regularized non-negative reduced biquaternion matrix factorization (GNRBMF) model for color image recognition. The proposed model incorporates a graph Laplacian regularizer into the reduced biquaternion coefficient matrix, encouraging nearby samples in the original space to have similar coefficient representations. Meanwhile, GNRBMF retains the non-negativity property of NRBMF in the reduced biquaternion algebra. To solve the optimization problem, a component-wise alternating projected gradient algorithm is derived, and its convergence properties are analyzed. Experimental results on three color image datasets show that the proposed GNRBMF model achieves competitive or superior recognition performance compared with several methods in most tested settings.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Generalization Guarantees for Multi-Input Neural Operator Learning in Sobolev Spaces

arXiv:2606.17419v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We develop approximation and generalization error estimates for multi-input neural operators, with the output error measured in Sobolev norms. In contrast to standard operator-learning settings with a single input function, our framework allows multiple input functions defined on possibly different domains, with different dimensions and Sobolev regularities. The derived rates explicitly quantify the contribution of each input space to the final error bound. In particular, in the balanced regime, the approximation and generalization rates are governed by the interaction between the input dimensions, regularities, and Sobolev orders, while the dependence on the model complexity retains a \(\log\log/\log\)-type structure. Our analysis provides a general theoretical framework for multi-input operator learning, including Sobolev training, and is applicable to operator learning problems arising from partial differential equations and scientific computing.

20.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Gen Z scepticism towards AI is a wake-up call — universities must take it seriously

作者:

The challenge for universities is not adopting artificial intelligence, but doing so in ways that the current generation of students can trust. The challenge for universities is not adopting artificial intelligence, but doing so in ways that the current generation of students can trust.

21.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Speaking in Self-Assessing Tongues: On the Verbalized Confidence of LLMs in Machine Translation

The rapid rise in popularity of large language models (LLMs) for translation calls for a thorough study of the reliability of their confidence in their own outputs. Unlike many generation tasks, translation errors and confidence levels can be useful at different levels of granularity (tokens, words, or spans). Unsupervised approaches based on internal signals like predicted probabilities can be misleading because they reflect certainty among alternatives rather than correctness. In addition, they require access to such internal signals. Here, we devise five verbalized methods of extracting an LLM's per-token confidence without those shortcomings and compare their reliability with that of the model's internal signals of certainty. We evaluate reliability using two forms of alignment: fine-grained error detection and calibration. For both, internal and verbalized methods perform similarly, although results vary by model. Interestingly, we find little to no correlation between internal and verbalized methods.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

TIP-Search: Time-Predictable Inference Scheduling for Market Prediction under Uncertain Load

作者:

arXiv:2506.08026v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Real-time market prediction services need correct predictions before a decision deadline; a correct prediction delivered late is not usable. TIP-Search studies time-predictable inference scheduling over fixed market predictors under uncertain load. It filters conformal latency-quantile feasible models, dispatches over finite workers, and uses shielded constrained online experts to trade accuracy, queue pressure, and deadline risk. On the optimized deployable pool, TIP-Search reaches 0.994 raw accuracy and 0.991 timely accuracy. On official TLOB FI-2010 h=10, TIP-Search++ raises timely accuracy from 0.156 to 0.239 and deadline satisfaction from 0.391 to 0.962. In matched h10 profiled systems replay, OCO-ACPO reaches 0.303 timely accuracy and 0.951 deadline satisfaction, with paired gains over RAMSIS/SneakPeek/utility-style comparators of $+0.00285$ timely accuracy ($p=0.0118$) and $+0.0146$ deadline satisfaction ($p=1.5{\times}10^{-5}$). SA-OCO-ACPO improves timely/deadline service by 0.188–0.417 over CPO under nonstationary stress. The claim is a systems scheduling result, not a broad LOB classifier leaderboard.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Generative-Model Predictive Planning for Navigation in Partially Observable Environments

arXiv:2606.18888v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Navigation in partially observable environments presents a significant challenge for autonomous agents, requiring effective decision-making with limited sensory information in unknown environments. Belief-based methods, particularly those using neural networks to approximate the belief space, often fail to capture the inherent multimodality of belief spaces, especially in high-dimensional cases with perceptual aliasing. While generative models present a compelling alternative, they typically require substantial data or expert demonstrations and lack explicit mechanisms for long-term planning. In this paper, we introduce BeliefDiffusion, a novel framework that combines the benefits of both generation and planning. BeliefDiffusion leverages diffusion models to explicitly characterize multimodal belief distributions and utilizes Model Predictive Control (MPC) to simultaneously plan ahead. It consists of two steps: (1) Imagining plausible environment configurations based on observation history and (2) Planning efficient navigation strategies across an aggregated configurations. Through extensive experiments in synthetic map environments, we demonstrate that BeliefDiffusion significantly outperforms both model-free reinforcement learning baselines and other generative approaches in navigation success rate and path efficiency. Our results validate that explicitly incorporating multimodal belief representations into planning enables more robust navigation in partially observable settings.

24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

On the Singular Control of a Diffusion and its Running Infimum or Supremum

arXiv:2501.17577v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study a class of singular stochastic control problems for a one-dimensional diffusion $X$ in which the performance criterion to be optimised depends explicitly on the running infimum $I$ (or supremum $S$) of the controlled process. We introduce two novel integral operators that are consistent with the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation for the resulting two-dimensional singular control problems. The first operator involves integrals where the integrator is the control process of the two-dimensional process $(X,I)$ or $(X,S)$; the second operator concerns integrals where the integrator is the running infimum or supremum process itself. Using these definitions, we prove a general verification theorem for problems involving two-dimensional state-dependent running costs, costs of controlling the process, costs of increasing the running infimum (or supremum) and exit times. Finally, we apply our results to explicitly solve an optimal dividend problem in which the manager's time-preferences depend on the company's historical worst performance.

25.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

Validating an Early Pregnancy HbA1c as the Screening Test for Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: Findings from PRISMA Pakistan Cohort

Background: Early identification of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is critical to improving maternal and neonatal outcomes, particularly in resource-constrained settings where universal oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT) is burdensome. We assessed whether early-pregnancy HbA1c alone or combined with common risk factors can predict GDM and reduce the burden of OGTT requirements in a peri-urban cohort in Karachi, Pakistan. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of the Pregnancy Risk Infant Surveillance and Measurement Alliance (PRISMA) Pakistan cohort. Women enrolled before 20 weeks' gestation with available early-pregnancy HbA1c and a 2-hour 75g OGTT at 24 to 28 weeks were included. We externally validated GDM prediction models originally developed in the STRiDE-India cohort. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC). We assessed four models: HbA1c alone (Model 1a); age, BMI, and family history of diabetes mellitus (FH DM) (Model 1b); HbA1c combined with age, BMI, and FH DM (Model 2); and an extended model, i.e., Model 2 combined with socioeconomic status, gestational age, parity, systolic and diastolic blood pressure (Model 3). A dual-threshold approach was applied to assess rule-in and rule-out performance. Results: Among 2,489 women, GDM incidence was 7.5% (n=186). Models with a broader set of predictors demonstrated higher AUC values, with Model 2 achieving an AUC of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.66). Including additional factors (Model 3) did not further improve predictive ability (AUC: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.66). In addition, at predefined thresholds, Model 2 achieved sensitivity of 73.7% (rule-out) and specificity of 83.5% (rule-in), with the potential to reduce OGTT requirements (58.5%). Conclusions: Early-pregnancy risk stratification using HbA1c combined with simple clinical predictors offers a pragmatic approach to streamline GDM screening among high-risk pregnant women. A dual-threshold strategy using Model 2 could reduce reliance on universal OGTT while prioritizing high-risk women for confirmatory testing.