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01.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-10

Development of an Open-Access Action Observation Video Library for Upper Limb Motor Rehabilitation

Background: Occupational therapists can improve stroke survivors hand and arm movement and participation in daily activities through action observation (AO). AO involves watching another persons hand or arm complete a movement or task. While research generally supports the use of AO with stroke survivors, there are limited AO videos are available to occupational therapists which makes applying AO challenging. Objective: The purpose of this work is to develop structured and widely accessible tool to support access to AO for stroke survivors, occupational therapists, and researchers. Methods: To develop an AO video library for stroke rehabilitation, functional and non-functional upper limb task deficits were first identified through clinical observations and clinician interviews to establish a prioritized list of daily activities. In collaboration with media production specialists, healthy adult volunteers were recruited and filmed performing these tasks from both first- and third-person perspectives. The recorded videos were then systematically edited, enhanced with instructional title slides, and distributed via a public YouTube channel for clinical application and a categorized digital repository for research purposes. Results: Initial assessments revealed a complete lack of familiarity, awareness, and utilization of AO resources among local occupational therapists, despite high perceived clinical utility. To address this gap, a final library of 150 tasks was established, resulting in the production of 419 finalized, standardized videos featuring six healthy volunteers. For clinical application, these videos were hosted on a free, public YouTube channel organized into 18 functional playlists, while a parallel set was structured into distinct movement categories for research repository storage. Conclusion: By providing a structured and highly accessible tool, this repository enables clinicians, researchers, and caregivers to readily implement evidence-based action observation interventions in both clinical and home settings.

02.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Distinct Neuronal, Proliferative, and Secretory Pathways are Perturbed in Cancer Survivors with Depressive Symptoms

Introduction Depression is highly prevalent among cancer survivors and may be biologically distinct, although clinical studies investigating these mechanisms remain limited. Thus, the aims of this study were to (1) identify perturbed biological pathways associated with depressive symptom severity in cancer survivors, and (2) investigate whether these pathways are common or distinct to those perturbed in an age-matched non-cancer cohort. Methods We analyzed cross-sectional self-reported and transcriptomic data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (PHD #39341). Cancer survivors and an age-matched non-cancer cohort (target ratio 1:2) were identified. The 20-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) was used to split participants into low (CES-D

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Rewrite to Translate, Translate to Reward: Reinforcement Learning for Source Rewriting in Machine Translation

Rewriting source text with large language models (LLMs) before translation has been shown to improve machine translation (MT) quality. However, we find that prompt-based rewriting can degrade translation quality rather than improve it, particularly when smaller LLMs, such as 4B-parameter models, are used. We argue that this limitation stems from the difficulty of controlling rewriting behavior through natural-language prompts alone: a rewrite is useful only if it improves downstream translation, yet existing prompt-based methods do not explicitly optimize for this signal. To address this issue, we propose RLSR (Reinforcement Learning for Source Rewriting), a reinforcement learning framework that trains the rewriting model with a reward based on the downstream translation-quality improvement produced by each rewrite. Experiments across six MT systems and 16 language pairs show that our 4B RLSR-trained rewriting models significantly outperform both the no-rewriting baseline and prompt-based rewriting baselines at the same model scale, while remaining competitive with baselines that use a 235B LLM.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

HARBOR: Heading Analysis and Reconstruction from Behavioral Observation and Radar

Maritime situational awareness often relies on Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmissions to track vessel movements. However, in operational or conflict scenarios, these data may be unavailable due to signal loss, deliberate deactivation, or intentional spoofing. In such conditions, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery becomes a critical sensing alternative for wide-area maritime monitoring, despite providing only static scene snapshots. This work introduces HARBOR (Heading Analysis and Reconstruction from Behavioral Observation and Radar), a complete pipeline for transforming a single SAR image into predictive motion information without requiring any auxiliary data source at inference time. The method begins with SAR image preprocessing to enhance and segment vessel candidates, followed by automatic detection, size-based classification, and heading estimation using skeleton geometry and local intensity patterns. AIS data are used exclusively during an offline calibration phase to derive vessel-type-dependent motion parameters, which are then applied to generate probabilistic heatmaps of candidate future vessel positions. A case study using real COSMO-SkyMed SAR imagery demonstrates the pipeline on a maritime scene in southern Brazil, showing its ability to extract motion tendencies and generate probabilistic projections of vessel positions in data-denied environments.

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

SLUM-i: Semi-supervised Learning for Urban Mapping of Informal Settlements and Data Quality Benchmarking

Rapid urban expansion has fueled the growth of informal settlements in major cities of low- and middle-income countries, with Lahore and Karachi in Pakistan and Mumbai in India serving as prominent examples. However, large-scale mapping of these settlements is severely constrained not only by the scarcity of annotations but by inherent data quality challenges, specifically high spectral ambiguity between formal and informal structures and significant annotation noise. We address this by introducing a benchmark dataset for Lahore, constructed from scratch, along with companion datasets for Karachi and Mumbai, which were derived from verified administrative boundaries, totaling approximately 900 $km^2$ of urban area. This collection is supplemented by four cities from prior literature across Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, with comprehensive data quality assessments provided for each city. We also propose a semi-supervised segmentation framework designed to mitigate the class imbalance and distribution mismatch inherent in standard semi-supervised learning pipelines. Our method integrates a Class-Aware Adaptive Thresholding mechanism that dynamically adjusts confidence thresholds to prevent minority class suppression, and a DINOv2-based unlabeled pool filter that removes out-of-distribution tiles prior to training to reduce covariate shift. Extensive experiments across seven cities spanning three continents, repeated over five random seeds, demonstrate gains of up to +5.9 pp mIoU over state-of-the-art semi-supervised baselines, with both components being architecture-agnostic and adding no inference overhead.

07.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-08

TRACEY: an updated resource for SNARE protein domain annotation with improved HMMs and expanded sequence coverage

Motivation: SNARE proteins catalyse membrane fusion across the eukaryotic endomembrane system, from synaptic vesicle exocytosis to intracellular trafficking, endosomal and vacuolar transport, and autophagy, and their accurate domain annotation depends on the quality of profile models and the sequence diversity behind them. The original SNARE domain classification predates the recent expansion of eukaryotic sequence data, leaving its HMM profiles and subgroup coverage unable to resolve divergent and lineage-specific paralogs. Results: We present an updated release of TRACEY built on a resynchronized, non-redundant collection of 18,915 curated SNARE proteins spanning 1,188 species, together with a consolidated set of 83 HMM profiles, including 43 models for newly defined subgroups, reconstructed through an iterative, mixture-model-driven procedure. In direct comparison with the legacy models, at least ~75% of sequences in every overlapping group scored better with the new HMMs, indicating systematic gains in domain detection. A redesigned web interface adds multiparameter querying, FASTA download, and direct scanning of user-submitted sequences against the curated profiles. Availability and implementation: TRACEY is freely available at https://tracey.unil.ch.

09.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

The 1/4-phenomenon of placement probabilities of tilings in the Aztec diamond

arXiv:2512.08377v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We consider domino tilings of the Aztec diamond. Using the Domino Shuffling algorithm introduced by Elkies, Kuperberg, Larsen, and Propp in arXiv:math/9201305, we are able to generate domino tilings uniformly at random. In this paper, we investigate the probability of finding a domino at a specific position in such a random tiling. We prove that this placement probability is always equal to $1/4$ plus a rational function, whose shape depends on the location of the domino, multiplied by a position-independent factor that involves only the size of the diamond. This result leads to significantly more compact explicit counting formulas compared to previous findings. As a direct application, we derive explicit counting formulas for the domino tilings of Aztec diamonds with $2\times 2$-square holes at arbitrary positions.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Hierarchical Planning with Latent World Models

arXiv:2604.03208v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: World models are a promising path to zero-shot embodied control through planning. However, existing world model planners struggle on long-horizon, multi-stage tasks: prediction errors compound and naive search is exponential in the planning horizon. Hierarchy mitigates both by decomposing tasks into shorter, tractable subproblems; yet prior hierarchical approaches either amortize control into task-specific policies (hierarchical RL) or assume low-dimensional states and known dynamics (classical hierarchical MPC). We present Hierarchical Planning with Latent World Models (HWM), an architecture and planning paradigm for hierarchical model predictive control (MPC) directly on visual world models trained solely via next-latent prediction. HWM learns world models at multiple temporal scales within a shared latent space, so predictions from the long-horizon model serve as subgoals for the short-horizon model via latent matching, without task-specific rewards, skill learning, or hierarchical policies. To keep long-horizon search tractable, HWM learns an action encoder that compresses primitive action chunks into latent macro-actions. On real-world Franka manipulation, HWM solves pick-and-place from a single goal image at 70% success vs. 0% for single-level planning. Across simulated push manipulation and maze navigation, HWM consistently improves performance on long-horizon tasks while requiring up to 3x less planning compute.

11.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

Associations Between Social Responsiveness and Sleep Disruption are Modulated by Chronotype in Early Adolescence: Cross-Sectional and Prospective Findings from 10,108 Participants of the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study

Background: Sleep disruption is prevalent in people with neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism but is not clear whether it occurs as an endophenotype or secondary to other behaviours. The ABCD Study is a population-based longitudinal study that monitors the health, demography and lifestyle of over 11,000 children in the US. In this study we leverage these data to investigate whether traits consistent with autism (social responsiveness) are associated with sleep disruption independent of lifestyle and other behavioural measures. Methods: Autistic traits were assessed using the Social Responsiveness Scale at age 11, and sleep disruption and behavioural outcomes were assessed at ages 11 and 13 years using the Sleep Disturbance Scale, and the Child Behaviour Check List, respectively. Demographic, health and lifestyle-related variables were assessed by caregiver questionnaires. Regression models were applied to investigate associations between autistic traits and sleep outcomes. Results: There was a significant cross-sectional association between sleep disturbance and SRS at age 11 years old that was independent of sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic position, physical activity, sedentary behaviour and anxiety/depression ({beta} = 0.12, 95% CI (0.07, 0.17); p < 0.001), that persisted at age 13, and that was modulated by chronotype, with evening types showing a stronger association. Discussion: Social responsiveness assessed in early adolescence (age 11) were associated with sleep disruption independent of multiple confounding factors and were prospectively associated with sleep disruption at age 13 years. These findings contribute to the evidence that disruption of sleep and circadian timing may have a primary role in the neurobiological mechanisms that mediate autistic traits.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Sovereign Execution Brokers: Enforcing Certificate-Bound Authority in Agentic Control Planes

arXiv:2606.20520v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Autonomous agents are increasingly connected to cloud, deployment, and data-control workflows, but production mutation authority should not reside inside non-deterministic reasoning processes. Existing access-control mechanisms authorize identities, while assurance layers certify proposed actions; neither alone provides a mandatory enforcement point for certified authority at the moment of mutation. This paper introduces the Sovereign Execution Broker (SEB), a runtime enforcement boundary for certificate-bound agentic infrastructure. SEB consumes certificates issued by the Sovereign Assurance Boundary (SAB), verifies that the requested mutation matches the certified execution contract, checks validity windows, policy epochs, revocation epochs, and live-state drift, mints scoped execution identity, invokes infrastructure APIs, and records signed decision and outcome records. By separating proposal, admission, and execution, SEB turns certified authority into a short-lived, revocable, auditable runtime capability, provided that production mutation APIs reject non-broker identities. We present the SEB execution model, certificate and replay-verification predicates, scoped identity semantics, bypass-prevention deployment patterns, failure behavior, and a concrete prototype implementation. We evaluate the prototype on AWS and Kubernetes clusters, measuring latency overheads, revocation propagation, drift detection, and security under fault injection.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

LVLMs and Humans Ground Differently in Referential Communication

For generative AI agents to partner effectively with human users, the ability to accurately predict human intent is critical. But this ability to collaborate remains limited by a critical deficit: an inability to model common ground. We present a referential communication experiment with a factorial design involving director-matcher pairs (human-human, human-AI, AI-human, and AI-AI) that interact with multiple turns in repeated rounds to match pictures of objects not associated with any obvious lexicalized labels. We show that LVLMs cannot interactively generate and resolve referring expressions in a way that enables smooth communication, a crucial skill that underlies human language use. We release our corpus of 356 dialogues (89 pairs over 4 rounds each) along with the online pipeline for data collection and the tools for analyzing accuracy, efficiency, and lexical overlap.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

ClinHallu: A Benchmark for Diagnosing Stage-Wise Hallucinations in Medical MLLM Reasoning

Building trustworthy medical multimodal large language models (MLLMs) is critical for reliable clinical decision support. Existing medical hallucination benchmarks mainly focus on data collection, but often ignore where hallucinations originate within the reasoning process. We find that hallucination sources vary across samples: errors may arise from visual misrecognition, incorrect medical knowledge recall, or flawed reasoning integration. To enable source-level hallucination diagnosis, we introduce ClinHallu, a benchmark for stage-wise hallucination diagnosis in medical MLLM reasoning. ClinHallu contains 7,031 validated instances, where each instance is augmented with a structured reasoning trace decomposed into Visual Recognition, Knowledge Recall, and Reasoning Integration. We also use stage-replacement interventions to measure how correcting specific stages affects the final answer. Beyond evaluation, we show that trace-supervised fine-tuning reduces stage-wise hallucinations. ClinHallu provides a fine-grained hallucination testbed for diagnosing and mitigating reasoning failures in medical MLLMs. The benchmark is publicly available at https://github.com/alibaba-damo-academy/ClinHallu.

15.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Quenched and Annealed CLTs for the one-periodic Aztec diamond in random environment

arXiv:2510.11846v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the asymptotic behavior of random dimer coverings of the one-periodic Aztec diamond in random environment. We investigate quenched limit theorems for the height function and we extend annealed limit theorems that were recently studied in [arXiv:2507.08560]. We consider more general choices of random edge weights (independence is not assumed) and we distinguish two cases where the random edge weights satisfy the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) under different scalings. For both cases, we prove convergence to the Gaussian Free Field for the quenched fluctuations. For the annealed version, it had been shown in [arXiv:2507.08560], that Gaussian Free Field fluctuations can be dominated by the much larger fluctuations of the random environment. To access quenched fluctuations we analyze the Schur process with random parameters in a way that allows to prove the annealed CLT for the height function for non i.i.d. weights. We consider specific examples where we determine the asymptotic fluctuations.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

ProHiFlo: Hierarchical Flow Matching with Functional Guidance for De Novo Protein Generation

De novo protein generation has transformative potential in therapeutic design, enzyme engineering, and synthetic biology. While diffusion-based and flow matching approaches have achieved progress, they typically operate at single resolution and lack mechanisms for incorporating functional constraints. We introduce ProHiFlo, a hierarchical flow matching framework with three innovations: (1) coarse-to-fine generation that models backbone geometry before refining to all-atom coordinates, reducing computational cost while maintaining accuracy; (2) functional guidance leveraging pretrained predictors to steer generation toward desired properties without retraining; (3) adaptive SE(3)-equivariant architecture for efficient multi-scale processing. Experiments on unconditional generation, motif scaffolding, and functional design demonstrate state-ofthe-art performance while requiring 4 fewer sampling steps. On enzyme active site scaffolding, ProHiFlo achieves 58.9% success rate compared to 41.2% for RFDiffusion.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Vernier: Probing Representational Misalignment Behind Lexical Gaps in Causal Reasoning

作者:

Instruction-tuned language models can answer the same causal-reasoning question differently after its English variable names are replaced by type-preserving placeholders, although the structural causal model and the gold answer are unchanged. We ask whether this lexical gap reflects information loss in the placeholder view or a misaligned read-out from a representation that still carries answer-relevant content. Vernier uses a paired-view weight update as an instrument and then inspects the mechanism left after the gap closes. In the working regimes, the evidence favours representational misalignment. A variable-name probe becomes more accurate on the placeholder view, and activation patching on Qwen-7B, Qwen-14B, and Llama-3.1-8B shows that the decision-token representation can transfer answer identity between views. The update that realigns the views is counterfactual augmentation over original and placeholder prompts, while the answer-subspace KL mainly sharpens intermediate answer-belief agreement. Success is bounded by model family, scale, and task. CRASS transfer is reliable across Qwen scales and Llama, e-CARE remains weak, and preliminary non-causal rename tasks show a similar qualitative pattern.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Mental Health AI Safety Claims Must Preserve Temporal Evidence

arXiv:2605.08827v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The safety of mental health AI is often judged at the wrong temporal scale. Current evaluations typically score isolated responses, endpoint outcomes, or aggregate dialogue quality, while clinically consequential failures may arise from the order and accumulation of interactions themselves, including delayed escalation, repeated reinforcement, dependency formation, failed repair, and gradual deterioration across turns. This paper argues that this mismatch is not merely a limitation of evaluation coverage but a source of invalid safety conclusions. We introduce Temporal Safety Non-Identifiability, a formal account of why safety properties that depend on sequence, timing, accumulation, or recovery cannot be certified by protocols that discard those features. From this formalization, we develop SCOPE (Safety Claims Over Preserved Evidence) as a general principle for aligning safety claims with the evidence an evaluation actually retains, and instantiate it as SCOPE-MH, a mental-health instantiation of this reporting standard. We operationalize SCOPE-MH through a proof-of-concept on the AnnoMI dataset of expert-annotated motivational interviewing conversations, which reveals mechanisms of failure that per-turn behavior scoring does not represent. We propose SCOPE-MH as a diagnostic complement to existing evaluation infrastructure and argue that evaluation preserving temporal evidence is necessary, not optional, for safety-critical mental health AI deployment.

19.
Nature Medicine 2026-06-22

Biological aging and generational shifts in early-onset cancer risk

作者:

Incidence of early-onset cancer is rising globally in recent generations, which underscores the need to elucidate the influence of emerging generational risk factors. Systemic and organ-specific aging reflects the cumulative impact of exposures and may provide an integrative and complementary approach to understand early-onset cancer risk. Here among 154,169 young adults from the United Kingdom Biobank, systemic aging measured by PhenoAge increased across birth cohorts, with 23% s.d. increase for those born 1965–1974 versus 1950–1954, and was associated with early-onset solid cancer risk (hazard ratio (HR)per s.d. 1.08; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03–1.13), driven by lung, gastrointestinal and uterine cancers, independent of genetic risks of aging and cancer. Patterns were consistent using alternative systemic aging measures, including the Klemera–Doubal method-defined age gap and metabolomic-based age gap. These findings were validated partially among 10,262 participants in the United States All of Us Research Program. Proteomics-based organ-specific aging analyses linked immune aging with early-onset lung cancer (HRper s.d. 1.89; CI, 1.20–2.97) and adipose tissue aging to early-onset colorectal cancer (HR 1.60; CI, 1.11–2.32). Greater age gap, reflecting more advanced biological aging relative to chronological age, may serve as a driver associated with risk of early-onset solid cancers, highlighting the importance of uncovering underlying mechanisms to guide effective prevention strategies. Analyses of population cohorts found that young adults exhibited earlier systemic and organ-specific aging, which was associated with increased risk of early-onset cancer compared with older adults born decades earlier.

20.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Show the Signal, Hide the Noise: Spectral Forcing for Pixel-Space Diffusion

Pixel-space diffusion models are trained on full-bandwidth noisy images, yet the useful signal available to the denoiser is strongly frequency dependent. Under rectified-flow diffusion and natural-image power-law spectra, the per-band data-to-noise contour $k^{*}(t) = (1-t)^{-2/\alpha}$ separates a signal-bearing low-frequency region from a noise-dominated high-frequency region at each time $t$. We show that this implicit coarse-to-fine structure is not merely descriptive: it induces a capacity-allocation problem. A standard pixel-space denoiser must discover the moving bandwidth boundary internally and can spend computation on frequency-time regions where the optimal prediction collapses to deterministic baselines rather than data-distribution modeling. To make this boundary explicit, we introduce Spectral Forcing, a parameter-free, time-conditional 2D-DCT low-pass operator applied to the noisy input before the patch embedder. Its cutoff expands monotonically with the diffusion time and becomes the identity at the data endpoint. Through controlled synthetic experiments, we identify the regime in which the operator is beneficial: coarse patch tokenization and data whose high-frequency content is predominantly noise rather than essential signal. On ImageNet-256 with JiT-700M/32, Spectral Forcing consistently improves both FID and Inception Score across different training epochs, demonstrating robust gains throughout training; at finer tokenization, the spectral forcing is still competitive. We further insert the unchanged operator into SenseNova-U1, a unified text-to-image model, where it improves DPG-Bench and GenEval, showing that the input-side spectral prior transfers beyond class-conditional generation. These results suggest a route to capacity-efficient pixel-space diffusion by showing the signal and hiding the noise.

21.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

A multistate model of frailty progression after severe infections in adults >=65 years in England: a matched-cohort study

Background Evidence on frailty progression following severe infections is limited. We compared rates of transition to greater frailty or death between adults with and without severe infection in England. Methods We conducted a matched-cohort study among adults aged [&ge;]65 years (1,452,117: median age 76 years, 45% male) in Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum (2006-2019). Adults with severe infection (hospitalised primarily due to infection) were matched on calendar time to individuals without severe infection on age, sex, and primary care practice. The admission date was used as index date and same was assigned to matched unexposed adults. We measured frailty using Electronic Frailty Index, a proportion of 36 health deficits in validated categories (Fit 0-0.12, Mild >0.12-0.24, Moderate >0.24-0.36, Severe >0.36). In a time-varying Markov multistate model, we focused on forward transitions from baseline or intermediate frailty states to higher states or death. For each transition, we used Cox regression to estimate cause-specific transition hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), comparing adults with and without severe infection. We adjusted for baseline frailty score, age, sex, deprivation, harmful alcohol use, smoking, and primary care infection history 5 years before index date. We estimated state occupancy probabilities, and expected length of stay (ELOS) in each state at year five among adults with and without severe infection. We explored effect modification by infection type. Results Across all transitions, severe infection was associated with higher adjusted hazards of transitioning to worsening frailty or death, HR, 95% CI: (fit to: mild[1.56, 1.54-1.58], moderate[2.51, 1.79-3.51], death[4.57, 4.50-4.65]; mild to: moderate[1.52, 1.50-1.53], severe[1.90, 1.43-2.52], death[2.67, 2.64-2.70]; moderate to: severe[1.40, 1.38-1.42], death[1.87, 1.85-1.90]; severe to death[1.48, 1.46-1.50]). Transition hazard ratios were strongest for lower respiratory tract infections, followed by sepsis, urinary tract infections, meningitis/encephalitis, gastroenteritis, and skin and soft tissue infections. At five years, adults with severe infection had higher probabilities of transitioning to greater frailty or death across all transitions and lower ELOS in each frailty state than those without severe infection. Interpretation Severe infections may accelerate frailty deterioration in older age. Prevention through vaccination, early detection, and prompt management may help mitigate this decline.

22.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

LEDGER: A Long-Context Benchmark of Corporate Annual Reports for Grounded Financial Retrieval and Extraction

Finance reporting is a natural proving ground for large language models, and the very-long-context capabilities of recent models across all sizes make rigorous evaluation in this domain an increasingly pressing need. Yet most public financial resources reduce the task to plain-text SEC 10-K filings paired with a handful of question-answer items. We release LEDGER (Long-context Evaluation of Documents for Grounded Extraction and Retrieval), a corpus of 4,999 digitized corporate annual reports - full documents with figures, tables, and narrative, not just regulatory filings. Each report is labeled with 31 consolidated financial KPIs to be extracted and linked to the market's reaction at the earnings date. From this data we derive three evaluation benchmarks spanning the difficulty spectrum: a pure page-level KPI retrieval task with TREC-style relevance judgments over 118,048 questions in natural language, a conversational "needle-in-a-haystack" single-value lookup, and a full KPI extraction task, both from long, numerically dense reports. We additionally provide human OCR-quality annotations with inter-annotator agreement and the complete extraction, validation, and scoring toolchain. We further demonstrate the dataset's research utility with a case study linking CEO-letter rhetoric to post-publication market impact.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

TimeRouter: Efficient and Adaptive Routing of Time-Series Foundation Models

arXiv:2606.11625v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) are increasingly explored as predictive experts within emerging agentic time-series systems. However, TSFMs exhibit heterogeneous inductive biases, and no single model consistently dominates across forecasting regimes, making expert selection a critical challenge. Existing systems often delegate this decision to LLM-based controllers, incurring substantial inference overhead. We present TimeRouter, an efficient routing framework that leverages empirical complementarity across a pool of pretrained TSFMs through lightweight discriminative routing, selective gating, and ensemble fallback. Concretely, TimeRouter combines a learned routing head, a selective gate, and an ensemble fallback, enabling adaptive expert selection without invoking an LLM at inference time. TimeRouter achieves state-of-the-art performance on the GIFT-EVAL leaderboard, with an LB MASE of 0.6765. Beyond benchmark performance, our ablation studies provide empirical insights into TSFM routing design, highlighting the importance of pool composition and selective gating. Taken together, these results position TimeRouter as a modular and lightweight routing layer for future agentic time-series systems built upon foundation-model pools. Our code is available at https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/TimeRouter.

25.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Dysplasia-Stratified Management of Barrett's Esophagus: An Incidence-Based U.S. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

作者:

Background and Aims Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the principal precursor of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), whose incidence has risen sharply in Western countries since the 1960s. Effective, dysplasia stratified surveillance strategies are needed to prevent progression. This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of dysplasia stratified surveillance intervals and endoscopic eradication therapy (EET) across the BE spectrum. Methods We developed an incidence-based Markov state transition model of BE progression calibrated to U.S. epidemiologic data from a healthcare sector perspective over a lifetime horizon. Four hypothetical cohorts of 50-year-old individuals with short segment BE (SSBE), nondysplastic BE (NDBE), low grade dysplasia (LGD), or high-grade dysplasia (HGD) were evaluated. Strategies included no surveillance; surveillance at 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, or 10-year intervals; standard or AI assisted endoscopy; non endoscopic screening (sponge, breath, miRNA tests); and EET for LGD and HGD. Outcomes included costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs), net monetary benefits (NMBs), EAC cases, and EAC-related deaths. Sensitivity analyses used a willingness to pay threshold of US$100,000 per QALY. Results No surveillance was the most cost-effective strategy for SSBE and NDBE. For LGD, upfront EET was more cost effective than all surveillance strategies, with results sensitive to EAC incidence and recurrence. For HGD, EET was cost saving and yielded the greatest QALYs, with findings robust in 99.9% of simulations. EET prevented 12,614 and 44,295 EAC related deaths per 100,000 individuals with LGD and HGD, respectively. Conclusion Dysplasia-stratified management is essential for optimizing surveillance and treatment strategies in BE. Any degree of dysplasia should receive EET followed by targeted post-treatment monitoring, establishing EET as the central therapeutic pathway for dysplastic BE.