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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

GPO: Learning from Critical Steps to Improve LLM Reasoning

arXiv:2509.16456v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in various domains, showing impressive potential on different tasks. Recently, reasoning LLMs have been proposed to improve the reasoning or thinking capabilities of LLMs to solve complex problems. Despite the promising results of reasoning LLMs, enhancing the multi-step reasoning capabilities of LLMs still remains a significant challenge. While existing optimization methods have advanced the LLM reasoning capabilities, they often treat reasoning trajectories as a whole, without considering the underlying critical steps within the trajectory. In this paper, we introduce Guided Pivotal Optimization (GPO), a novel fine-tuning strategy that dives into the reasoning process to enable more effective improvements. GPO first identifies the `critical step' within a reasoning trajectory - a point that the model must carefully proceed to succeed at the problem. We locate the critical step by estimating the advantage function. GPO then resets the policy to the critical step, samples the new rollout and prioritizes the learning process on those rollouts. This focus allows the model to learn more effectively from pivotal moments within the reasoning process to improve the reasoning performance. We demonstrate that GPO is a general strategy that can be integrated with various optimization methods to improve reasoning performance. Besides theoretical analysis, our experiments across challenging reasoning benchmarks show that GPO can consistently and significantly enhance the performance of existing optimization methods, showcasing its effectiveness and generalizability in improving LLM reasoning by concentrating on pivotal moments within the generation process.

02.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

MEMPROBE: Probing Long-Term Agent Memory via Hidden User-State Recovery

Long-term memory promises LLM agents that grow more capable across sessions, maintaining an accurate, evolving understanding of the user that interaction forms. In practice, however, this memory is evaluated mostly through downstream behavior, such as later answers, personalization quality, or task success, which tests that understanding only indirectly and leaves the memory artifact itself largely unaudited. We argue that long-term memory should instead be evaluated as an auditable post-interaction artifact: after ordinary assistance, what structured user state can be reconstructed from the memory the agent leaves behind? We instantiate this view in MEMPROBE, a benchmark in which a memory-equipped agent assists simulated users, each carrying a hidden, taxonomy-anchored user-state bank, across a trajectory of leak-controlled tasks, after which that bank is reconstructed from the agent's resulting memory under both full-store and top-k access. Built on synthetic ground truth for efficient, scalable measurement, MEMPROBE spans 50 simulated users with 31 hidden dimensions each (1,550 recovery targets) and tests 5 representative memory systems. Testing state-of-the-art memory agents, we find that successful assistance and recoverable memory behave as distinct capabilities. Task completion nearly saturates, even for a memoryless baseline, while category-balanced recovery stays moderate (about 0.6) and drops further under top-k retrieval. MEMPROBE is the first benchmark to study memory recovery directly, reconstructing the user state a system retains and scoring it against ground truth. We see recovery as a concrete objective for future memory agents to optimize, and MEMPROBE as a step toward an environment where agents are trained to remember their users, growing more faithful the longer they know them.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

What Do Safety-Aligned LLMs Learn From Mixed Compliance Demonstrations?

arXiv:2606.20508v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prior work has shown that in-context demonstrations can jailbreak language models, but it remains unclear how models interpret different types of compliance demonstrations. We study this by mixing benign compliance demonstrations (non-harmful request, helpful response) with harmful compliance demonstrations (harmful request, helpful response) and testing three hypotheses about how demonstration composition drives harmful compliance. Across four models, we find that benign and harmful demonstrations are not interchangeable: benign demonstrations can either reduce or increase harmful compliance depending on the model. We further show that preference optimization is the critical training stage that prevents benign demonstrations from increasing harmful compliance, that demonstration ordering exhibits strong recency bias, and that models differ in how refusal interacts with in-context learning: some adopt demonstrated formatting even when refusing, while others override all in-context signals upon refusal. Taken together, this work moves beyond showing that demonstration-based jailbreaking works to characterizing how it works: what models extract from compliance demonstrations depends on demonstration content, ordering, and training methodology.

05.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

AI SciBrief as a Gateway to Research: A Framework for Onboarding Students into New Research Areas

Students at all levels of higher education face a significant barrier in the form of information overload, which often paralyzes the initial stages of the research process and suppresses motivation. In response, this article introduces a pedagogical framework that leverages AI SciBrief, a platform powered by a Large Language Model (LLM) designed to automatically generate digests of scientific trends. We describe how this multidisciplinary tool - with initial coverage in finance, medicine, and education - can be integrated into the curriculum to overcome this "entry barrier." The framework provides concrete methodologies for utilizing these digests to facilitate topic selection for term papers, accelerate literature reviews for dissertations, and enable postgraduate students to continuously monitor emerging trends. We conclude that AI SciBrief functions as a "gateway to research" effectively reducing students' cognitive load and empowering them to transition more rapidly from information searching to knowledge creation.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Finite-Time Convergence of Distributionally Robust Q-Learning with Linear Function Approximation

arXiv:2510.01721v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Distributionally robust reinforcement learning (DRRL) seeks policies that perform well when the deployment transition model differs from the nominal model generating the data. Most finite-sample guarantees for DRRL are tabular, model-based, rely on generative access, or obtain function-approximation guarantees only under additional structure, such as linear-transition models or restrictive discount-factor conditions. We study discounted model-free robust Q-learning under an $(s,a)$-rectangular chi-square uncertainty set, with linear approximation of the robust Q-function, using only a single Markovian trajectory from an unknown nominal model. Our algorithm combines a target-network outer loop with a dual function-approximation scheme for the chi-square robust Bellman update. The dual procedure uses moment-tracking critics, suffix averaging, a fresh-evaluation stage for the variance-like moment, and a tunable smoothing parameter to have a Lipschitz-continuous chi-square dual gradient. We prove a finite-time convergence bound to the optimal robust Q-function up to approximation error, without imposing a small-discount-factor assumption. Our results help close a gap between the empirical use of robust RL algorithms and the non-asymptotic guarantees available for their non-robust counterparts.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

ReFree: Towards Realistic Co-Speech Video Generation via Reward-Free RL and Multilevel Speech Guidance

Speech-driven talking character animation seeks to generate life-like portrait videos that convey natural conversation behavior, aligning facial motion with spoken audio. Although recent advances in video generation have substantially improved realism in video-based animation, achieving both accurate lip articulation and expressive behavior remains challenging. Existing approaches typically trade off precise phoneme-to-lip synchronization against dynamic facial expressions and head motion, yielding animations that are either accurate yet rigid, or expressive but poorly synchronized. We address this challenge by proposing ReFree-S2V, a flow-matching speech-to-portrait animation framework that builds upon a pretrained video generation model to achieve fine-grained speech articulation and high-level expressive cues in speech-driven portrait animation. This model introduces a multi-level speech representation capturing phonetic and prosodic information at both local and global granularities. These representations are selectively injected into transformer blocks via learnable level selectors, enabling both accurate lip synchronization and natural expressive motion. To achieve natural head movements, we further introduce a novel reward-free reinforcement learning scheme into flow-matching training to discourage perceptually implausible motion without relying on handcrafted synchronization metrics or reward models, or the high cost of human preference annotation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ReFree-S2V achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming existing methods in both quantitative lip-sync accuracy and qualitative human evaluations of naturalness and expressivity.

08.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Operational Tube-Sector Theory of Quantum State Distinguishability Under Generalized Symmetries

作者:

arXiv:2606.19678v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A variational principle for quantum-state distinguishability is established in many-body systems with generalized symmetries, including noninvertible cases described by fusion categories. Standard fidelity and symmetry-resolved diagnostics emerge as coarse-grained limits of a more refined operational structure. When symmetry actions terminate at entanglement cuts, distinguishability is governed by boundary tube algebras within a symmetry-constrained measurement resource theory. The physically admissible instruments are characterized by complete positivity, entanglement-cut locality, boundary-module covariance, and sequential stability. The resulting optimal measurement structure is uniquely fixed by the center of the boundary tube algebra, $\mathcal{A}_{\mathrm{phys}} = Z\!\left(\mathrm{Tube}_{\mathcal{C}}(\mathcal{M}_A)\right)$, whose primitive idempotents define tube-sector probabilities that refine fidelity-based and symmetry-resolved descriptions. The associated tube positive-operator-valued measures (POVM) are extremal and yield optimal one-shot hypothesis-testing distinguishability under symmetry constraints. The construction is universal across fusion categories and independent of microscopic realization.

09.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-17

Structure of the pre-initiation complex explains CMGE biogenesis

When cells enter S phase, bidirectional DNA replication is initiated through the kinase-regulated recruitment of three activators (Cdc45, GINS and Pol ε) to a duplex-DNA-loaded double hexamer of minichromosome maintenance (MCM) ATPases. Together, these proteins form two CMGE helicases that establish divergent replication forks as they become separated1. Here, to gain an understanding of CMGE biogenesis, we reconstituted the pre-initiation complex with purified yeast proteins. The cryo-electron-microscopy structure shows a set of firing factors caught in the act of assembling two symmetrical CMGEs. We show how stepwise complex formation reshapes MCM in preparation for DNA opening, and we explain how ATP promotes firing-factor ejection and CMGE maturation. We find that although Sld2 facilitates the recruitment of GINS to MCM, as expected, it also aids the efficient separation of the CMGE dimer, and is essential for the ejection of the lagging strand from MCM. These findings have direct implications for our understanding of the metazoan Sld2 orthologue, RECQL4, and point to a replication-fork establishment mechanism that is conserved across eukaryotes. Cryo-electron microscopy and biochemical reconstitution experiments in yeast provide insight into the assembly of the CMGE complex, a helicase that establishes bidirectional DNA replication in eukaryotic cells, and elucidate the role of the firing factor Sld2.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

UBP2: Uncertainty-Balanced Preference Planning for Efficient Preference-based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.19328v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Preference-based RL provides an approach to learning reward models from pairwise comparisons of behaviors, bypassing the need for explicit reward design. However, existing methods typically rely on passive data collection and suffer from poor sample efficiency, especially during the early stages of learning. We introduce a model-based approach that actively directs exploration by jointly reasoning over uncertainties in the reward, dynamics, and value functions. Our method, Uncertainty-Balanced Preference Planning (UBP2), uses ensembles of reward, dynamics, and value function models to evaluate candidate trajectories according to a unified score that combines expected reward, terminal value, and epistemic uncertainty. Planning under this objective yields an explicit tradeoff between exploitation and information acquisition without requiring ad hoc exploration heuristics. Under standard regularity assumptions, we establish sublinear regret guarantees for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon settings. Empirically, experiments on the Meta-World benchmark show UBP2 achieves substantially higher sample efficiency than model-free preference-based methods and non-optimistic model-based baselines.

11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Building Social World Models with Large Language Models

Understanding and predicting how social beliefs evolve in response to events – from policy changes to scientific breakthroughs – remains a fundamental challenge in social science. Given LLMs' commonsense knowledge and social intelligence, we ask: Can LLMs model the dynamics of social beliefs following social events? In this work, we introduce the concept of the Social World Model (SWM), a general framework designed to capture how social beliefs evolve in response to major events. SWM learns state-transition functions for social beliefs by mining temporal patterns in social data and optimizing the evidence lower bound, without the need for explicit human annotations linking events to belief shifts, or for expensive census data. To evaluate SWM, we introduce a benchmark, SWM-bench, derived from real-world prediction markets, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket. SWM-bench includes over 12k data points for social belief prediction tasks spanning diverse domains such as politics, finance, and cryptocurrency. Our experimental results show that SWM significantly outperforms time-series foundation models, achieving state-of-the-art results on Kalshi data and demonstrating competitive performance on Polymarket data, while offering interpretable insights into the underlying mechanisms of social belief dynamics.

12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Temperature driven false vacuum decay in coherently coupled Bose superfluids

arXiv:2602.03834v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The relaxation of a quantum field from a metastable state (false vacuum) to a stable one (true vacuum), also known as false vacuum decay, is a fundamental problem in quantum field theory and cosmology. We study this phenomenon using a two-dimensional interacting and coherently coupled Bose-Bose mixture, a platform that has already been employed experimentally to investigate false vacuum decay in one dimension. In such a mixture, it is possible to define an effective magnetization that acts as a quantum field variable. Using the Stochastic Gross-Pitaevskii equation (SGPE), we prepare thermal equilibrium states in the false vacuum and extract decay rates from the magnetization dynamics. The decay rates show an exponential dependence on temperature, in line with the thermal theory of instantons. Since the SGPE is based on complex scalar fields, it also allows us to explore the behavior of the phase, which turns out to become dynamic during decay. Our results confirm the SGPE as an effective tool for studying coupled magnetization and phase dynamics and the associated instanton physics in ultracold quantum gases.

13.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-10

Global and local genetic overlap among ME/CFS, irritable bowel syndrome and psychiatric traits: a hypothesis-generating analysis

作者:

Background. Myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) frequently co-occur following infection, yet shared genetic architecture at the locus level has not been systematically characterised. Aims. To estimate global and local genetic correlations between ME/CFS (including infection-onset subgroup), IBS, major depressive disorder (MDD) and loneliness/isolation, and characterise ME/CFS cell-type heritability enrichment. Method. GWAS summary statistics: DecodeME (15,579 ME/CFS; 9,738 infection-onset), FinnGen R9 (9,296 IBS), PGC MDD Wave 2 (45,396) and UK Biobank loneliness (N=455,364). LDSC for global correlations; LAVA for local correlations across 2,495 loci; MAGMA for cell-type enrichment (Descartes Human atlas); coloc.abf for colocalisation. Results. All pairwise global correlations were significant after Bonferroni correction, including ME/CFS-all-MDD (rg=0.598, 95% CI 0.46-0.74) and ME/CFS-all-IBS (rg=0.573, 0.39-0.75). Of 4,232 local tests, 16 reached FDR

14.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Resourcefulness of non-classical continuous-variable quantum gates

arXiv:2410.09226v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In continuous-variable quantum computation, identifying key elements that enable a quantum computational advantage is a long-standing issue. Starting from the standard results on the necessity of Wigner negativity, we develop a comprehensive and versatile approach in which the techniques of $(s)$-ordered quasiprobabilities are exploited to provide rigorous statements on the simulability of photonic quantum circuits consisting of previously characterized gates and thereby identifying the contribution of each quantum gate to the potential achievement of quantum computational advantage. This is achieved by means of an analysis of the so-called transfer function, allowing us to highlight the resourcefulness of a gate set. As such this technique can be straightforwardly applied to current continuous-variables quantum circuits, while also constraining the tolerable amount of losses above which any potential quantum advantage can be ruled out. We use $(s)$-ordered quasiprobability distributions on phase-space to capture the non-classical features in the protocol, and focus our technique entirely on the ordering parameter $s$. This allows us to highlight the resourcefulness and robustness to loss of a universal set of unitary gates comprising three distinct Gaussian gates and any non-Gaussian unitary gate, providing important insight on the role of non-Gaussianity.

15.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Storage and Transport Capacity Design for a Self-Reliable Two-Node Stochastic Resource System

arXiv:2606.12707v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study a two-node stochastic resource system operating over a finite horizon. Each node experiences uncertain supply and demand and is equipped with finite storage. The objective is to ensure that resource levels remain within prescribed limits with high probability. To this end, we formulate a chance-constrained capacity-design problem in which resources can be exchanged through a capacity-limited transport link. We characterize the minimum storage required at each node, derive the optimal transport policy, and quantify the trade-off between storage and transport capacities. Our results show the existence of a critical transport-capacity threshold that enables full risk pooling between the nodes. Moreover, this threshold decreases with the operating horizon, implying that full-pooling performance can be achieved with progressively smaller transport capacity over longer horizons.

16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Leptomeningeal Collateral Detection on DSA via Vessel-Graph Neural Networks

Leptomeningeal collaterals (LMCs) are an important prognostic factor in acute ischemic stroke. Existing automated methods rely on CT angiography (CTA), but individual LMCs are often too small to be resolved on CTA, limiting these methods to coarse collateral scoring. Digital subtraction angiography (DSA) visualizes individual collaterals at superior resolution, yet current assessment remains subjective, relying on manual grading scales that suffer from poor inter-rater agreement. We present a framework that formulates collateral detection as the classification of individual vessel segments on a graph derived from DSA. A hybrid graph-pixel architecture combines a topology-aware graph branch with a dense pixel branch, fused in a shared node-probability space. In a five-fold cross-validation setting, the fused model achieves a PR-AUC of 0.434, outperforming the graph-only (0.403) and pixel-only (0.362) baselines. To our knowledge, this is the first method to enable the individualization of LMCs in DSA, allowing for precise per-vessel quantitative assessment. This integration shifts DSA assessment toward objective evaluation, supporting future biomarker and pattern discovery for individual LMCs.

17.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

The Magic Barrier before Thermalization

arXiv:2510.11681v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We investigate the time dependence of anti-flatness in the entanglement spectrum, a measure for non-stabilizerness and lower bound for non-local quantum magic resource, on a subsystem of a linear SU(2) plaquette chain during thermalization. Tracing the time evolution of a large number of initial states, we find that the anti-flatness exhibits a barrier-like maximum during the time period when the entanglement entropy of the subsystem grows rapidly from the initial value to the microcanonical entropy. The location of the peak is strongly correlated with the time when the entanglement exhibits the strongest growth. This behavior is found for generic highly excited initial computational basis states and persists for coupling constants across the ergodic regime, revealing a universal structure of the entanglement spectrum during thermalization. We conclude that quantitative simulations of thermalization for nonabelian gauge theories require quantum computing. We speculate that this property generalizes to other quantum chaotic systems, a conjecture supported by analogous behavior observed in real-time simulations of the mixed-field Ising model.

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

A Synthetic Reliability-Aware PINN Benchmark for Offshore Wind Turbine Support-Structure Monitoring with Bayesian Inverse Identification

Reliable structural health monitoring (SHM) of offshore wind turbine (OWT) support structures requires fast state estimation from sparse measurements. Repeated high fidelity finite element or aeroelastic analyses are difficult to use directly in online monitoring loops, while purely data-driven surrogates can require large training sets. This paper presents Digi Turbine, a synthetic reliability-aware Physics Informed Neural Network (PINN) benchmark for OWT monopile support structure monitoring. The workflow embeds a simplified Euler Bernoulli beam equation with Winkler soil foundation in the training objective, couples it with Bayesian-prior-informed inverse identification, and adds First Order Reliability Method (FORM) screening. All validation uses synthetic configurations with analytical or finite-difference ground truth motivated by the NREL 5MW reference turbine context.

19.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-24

Distributional Statistical Models: Weak Moments, Cumulants, and a Central Limit Theorem

作者:

arXiv:2604.20634v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Many important statistical models fall outside classical moment-based methods due to the non-existence of moments or moment generating functions. We propose a generalised probabilistic framework in which a probability law is represented by a tempered distribution $T \in \mathcal{S}'$, on the same footing as a density, a distribution function, or a characteristic function. Information about the law is extracted by evaluating $T$ on test functions regularised by a given positive Schwartz kernel $\varphi \in \mathcal{S}$ – the kernel serving as a probe, not as part of the law. Expectations are defined via the action of distributions on regularised test functions, yielding well-defined weak moments, weak characteristic functions, and weak cumulants of all orders. These extend classical quantities and retain key algebraic properties such as additivity under independence and natural affine transformation rules. The main results are: (i) a systematic algebra of weak cumulants; (ii) a weak moment problem where existence of all moments holds unconditionally and uniqueness depends on the kernel, with uniqueness results under Gaussian kernels (via Hermite completeness), positive Schwartz kernels with an exponential tail bound and square-integrable densities (via a Carleman-type criterion), and kernels with exponential decay (via Denjoy-Carleman quasi-analyticity); and (iii) a weak central limit theorem formulated as convergence of weak characteristic functions to a Gaussian limit, covering cases where the classical theorem fails. The framework is illustrated with Student's $t$, stable, and hyperbolic distributions. As a statistical consequence, the weak first moment yields a consistent estimator of the location parameter in the Cauchy model, where no classical moment-based estimator exists. A full statistical treatment is given in a companion paper.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

RAMAC: Multimodal Risk-Aware Offline Reinforcement Learning and the Role of Behavior Regularization

arXiv:2510.02695v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In safety-critical domains where online data collection is infeasible, offline reinforcement learning (RL) is attractive only if policies achieve high returns without catastrophic lower-tail risk. Prior work on risk-averse offline RL achieves safety at the cost of either (i) value/model-based pessimism or (ii) restricted policy classes that limit expressiveness, whereas diffusion/flow-based expressive generative policies have largely been used in risk-neutral settings. We introduce Risk-Aware Multimodal Actor-Critic (RAMAC), a simple, modular, model-free framework that couples an expressive generative actor (e.g., diffusion/flow) with a distributional critic and optimizes a composite objective that combines Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) with behavioral cloning (BC), enabling risk-sensitive learning in complex multimodal scenarios. Since out-of-distribution (OOD) actions are a major driver of catastrophic failures in offline RL, we further provide an objective-level analysis showing that controlling behavior divergence via BC suppresses OOD actions and stabilizes CVaR. Instantiating RAMAC with a diffusion actor, we illustrate these insights on a 2-D risky bandit and evaluate on Stochastic-D4RL, observing consistent gains in $\mathrm{CVaR}_{0.1}$ while maintaining strong returns. The code and experimental results are available on the \href{https://kaifukazawa.github.io/ramac-project/} {project website}

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Vibe Coding Ate My Homework: An evaluation of AI approaches to greenfield software engineering and programming

arXiv:2606.18293v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Thanks to rapid developments in generative AI, we are in the midst of a paradigm shift that may change how we interact with computers forever. We have observed a growth in the use of natural language prompts to build applications and coding infrastructures without underlying knowledge of the field, and this practice has been dubbed `vibe coding.' It arguably represents what the field of programming has been building towards since the beginning, with every higher level of abstraction that is conceived. Vibe coding promises to be the endpoint for the meta of high-level programming as far as method of input is concerned: eliminating a human's use of code syntax entirely in favour of programming in their mother tongue. This paper aims to evaluate the viability of vibe coding for greenfield software engineering tasks, as well as analyse the benchmarks that have been used to measure its software engineering prowess. To this end, we have developed an evaluation suite for analysing an LLM's proficiency in carrying out simple, isolated greenfield programming tasks in Python to provide scoped insight on the matter.

22.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-24

Variational Tail Bounds for Norms of Random Vectors and Matrices

arXiv:2503.17300v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a variational tail bound for norms of random vectors and matrices under moment assumptions on their one-dimensional marginals. A simplified version of the bound that parametrizes the ``aggregating distribution'' using a certain pushforward of the Gaussian distribution is also provided. We apply the proposed method to reproduce some of the well-known bounds on norms of Gaussian random vectors, and also obtain dimension-free tail bounds for the Euclidean norm of random vectors with arbitrary moment profiles. Furthermore, we reproduce a dimension-free concentration inequality for sum of independent and identically distributed positive semidefinite matrices with sub-exponential marginals, and obtain a concentration inequality for the sample covariance matrix of sub-exponential random vectors. We also obtain a tail bound for the operator norm of a random matrix series whose random coefficients may have arbitrary moment profiles. Furthermore, we use coupling to formulate an abstraction of the proposed approach that applies more broadly. As a corollary, we derive a PAC-Bayesian-style bound in terms of a certain combination of the KL and R\'{e}nyi divergences between the prior and posterior distributions.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

A Hybrid LSTM–Vision Transformer Architecture for Predicting HRRR Forecast Errors

arXiv:2606.19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena. Previous work demonstrated that Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks can successfully predict forecast errors in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model using mesonet observations, but we believe performance degradation is linked to periods of complex vertical atmospheric evolution. To address this limitation, we develop a hybrid LSTM-Vision Transformer (LSTM-ViT) framework that combines temporal sequence learning from surface observations with atmospheric profiles from the New York State Mesonet profiler network. The LSTM-ViT framework is trained to predict HRRR hourly precipitation, 10 m wind speed, and 2 m temperature forecast errors at individual mesonet stations. Across all three predictors, incorporation of profiler-derived atmospheric structure improves forecast error prediction skill relative to the baseline LSTM architecture, with the largest gains occurring at shorter forecast lead times and during periods of enhanced PBL activity. Improvements are particularly pronounced for precipitation forecast error, where the LSTM-ViT framework achieves approximately a twofold increase in predictive skill relative to the baseline LSTM while better capturing convectively driven error evolution and reducing degradation associated with PBL processes. These results demonstrate that combining temporal sequence learning with vertically informed attention mechanisms provides a physically meaningful pathway for improving forecast error prediction in operational NWP systems. Our research offers forecasters enhanced guidance regarding model bias and forecast confidence.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Efficient Reinforcement Learning by Guiding World Models with Non-Curated Data

arXiv:2502.19544v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Leveraging offline data is a promising way to improve the sample efficiency of online reinforcement learning (RL). This paper expands the pool of usable data for offline-to-online RL by leveraging abundant non-curated data that is reward-free, of mixed quality, and collected across multiple embodiments. Although learning a world model appears promising for utilizing such data, we find that naive fine-tuning fails to accelerate RL training on many tasks. Through careful investigation, we attribute this failure to the distributional shift between offline and online data during fine-tuning. To address this issue and effectively use the offline data, we propose two techniques: i) experience rehearsal and ii) execution guidance. With these modifications, the non-curated offline data substantially improves RL's sample efficiency. Under limited sample budgets, our method achieves nearly twice the aggregate score of learning-from-scratch baselines across 72 visuomotor tasks spanning 6 embodiments. On challenging tasks such as locomotion and robotic manipulation, it outperforms prior methods that utilize offline data by a decent margin.

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

CAF-Gen: A Multi-Agent System for Enriching Argumentation Structures

Formalizing complex reasoning from natural text is one of the central challenges in computational linguistics. It requires systems to understand not just keywords but also the context and complex reasoning embedded in a text. Current Argument Mining (AM) techniques identify basic claims and premises, yet they often struggle to capture the richer structural information required by advanced schemas such as the Carneades Argumentation Framework (CAF), which incorporates features such as premise types, proof standards, and argument schemes. We address this limitation by introducing CAF-Gen, an automated multi-agent framework designed to enrich shallow argument structures into CAF-compliant argument models. By employing an iterative Creator-Reviewer pipeline, a creator agent's output is validated by a critical agent to ensure structural integrity. This multi-agent collaboration is crucial for mitigating the structural instability typical of single-pass generative models. Our experiments demonstrate that the iterative feedback loop improves the quality of the resulting data and achieves strong alignment with the original annotations, while producing structurally richer models. Our findings show that the multi-agent system can overcome the limitations of single-pass generation, providing a robust methodology for the automated modeling of formal argumentation.