Academic Intelligence · Curated Daily

探索全球前沿学术脉络

AcademicHub 汇聚顶级期刊与预印本平台的实时文献。定制您的专属科研雷达,利用大语言模型自动生成交叉领域文献分析简报。

01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Human Universal Grasping

arXiv:2606.17054v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Humans can grasp objects effortlessly, whereas multi-fingered robots are far from this level of generality. We argue that the most natural source of robot grasping data is from humans, who pick up thousands of objects every day. We present HUG, a flow-matching model that generates diverse human grasps for any user-specified object in a single RGB-D image captured from a stereo camera. Using smart glasses, we first collect 1M-HUGs, an egocentric dataset of human grasps spanning 1M frames (27.8 hrs) and 6,707 object instances across 41 buildings. Next, to model the distribution of natural human grasps, our novel flow-matching model fuses RGB and depth observations to output a grasp parameterized by wrist translation, wrist rotation, and MANO hand pose. Predicted grasps can be retargeted to various robot hands, enabling zero-shot grasping in everyday scenes. To standardize evaluation, we build a new simulated benchmark, HUG-Bench, of 90 unseen objects from five geometric categories and various sizes, with metric-scale 3D meshes. We evaluate HUG in the real world on the 30-object test set of HUG-Bench across multiple stereo cameras, robot embodiments, and household environments. HUG outperforms the state-of-the-art grasping baselines by +23% and +34% on our challenging object set. Code, data, benchmark, checkpoints, and an interactive demo are released on our website: https://grasping.io/

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Cross-Modal Registration Between 3D and 2D Fingerprints via Pose-Aware Unwrapping and Point-Cloud Fusion

Three-dimensional (3D) fingerprints preserve global finger geometry and local ridge structure while avoiding contact-induced deformation, but they remain difficult to integrate with legacy two-dimensional (2D) fingerprint systems. This paper addresses the intermediate stage between 3D acquisition and cross-modal matching, and presents a unified framework for 3D fingerprint preprocessing and registration across contactless and contact-based 2D modalities. The framework combines four components: 1) a nonparametric visualization and unwrapping method that converts a 3D fingerprint point cloud into a rolled-equivalent 2D representation without relying on a global finger-shape model; 2) a point-cloud fusion pipeline that registers and mosaics multiple partial 3D captures into a more complete fingerprint model; 3) an ellipse-based pose normalization method for canonical finger alignment; and 4) a pose-aware cross-modal registration strategy that improves compatibility between 3D fingerprints and both contactless and contact-based 2D fingerprints. Experiments on a self-collected multimodal fingerprint database containing 150 fingers show that the proposed framework achieves ridge-level 3D registration accuracy, robust pose estimation, and consistent gains in 2D compatibility. In particular, the 3D fusion error is concentrated around 0.09 mm, contactless 2D–3D registration reaches ridge-scale projection accuracy, and pose-aware unwrapping improves genuine matching scores relative to generic 3D unwrapping. These results support the use of 3D fingerprints as an effective geometric bridge across heterogeneous fingerprint modalities. The baseline implementation has been publicly released at https://github.com/XiongjunGuan/3DFpVisual.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Action with Visual Primitives

arXiv:2605.22183v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have emerged as a promising paradigm for generalist robotic manipulation. A common design in current architectures maps language instructions and visual observations to actions in a single forward pass. While conceptually simple, this formulation entangles instruction comprehension, spatial scene understanding, and motor control within a single learning objective. As a result, the action expert must implicitly relearn cognitive and perceptual capabilities already present in the pretrained VLM, which can limit both learning efficiency and generalization. We introduce AVP (Action with Visual Primitives), an end-to-end architecture that implements this visual-primitive-centric interface: the VLM infers the next-stage target and emits visual-primitive tokens that condition a flow-matching action expert, with supervision derived from end-effector kinematics. Real-robot experiments on general pick-and-place tasks show that AVP improves the success rate by 37.04% over pi_0.5 and outperforms other recent methods, with consistent gains in data efficiency, spatial-compositional generalization, and object-level transfer.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Encoder Winners Do Not Reliably Transfer Across VLA Backbone Scale: A Frozen-Backbone Grafting Diagnostic

Vision-language-action (VLA) policies typically inherit their vision encoder from upstream VLM releases, but it is unclear whether an encoder choice validated on a small VLA transfers to a larger backbone. We introduce a frozen-backbone grafting diagnostic: the vision tower of a released VLA is replaced by a candidate encoder under a fixed protocol (adaptive average pooling, LayerNorm, and a single trainable linear projector), with the language model and action expert frozen. Across four encoders, two LIBERO suites, two backbones (SmolVLA-450M and $\pi_{0.5}$-3.3B), and two-to-three seeds per cell (40 main grafting runs plus native, LoRA, pooling, and zero-/shuffled-image controls, all scored by offline action MSE), the small-backbone winner does not reliably select the large-backbone top tier: SigLIP is best on SmolVLA across both suites, while on $\pi_{0.5}$ DINOv2-small leads the spatial suite and the object suite is a seed-sensitive near-tie band; three of the four backbone-suite comparisons (and 11 of 12 seed-level cells) support backbone-dependent rankings. The grafting wrapper is itself non-neutral with opposite sign across backbones (+45-56% MSE on the SmolVLA native tower, -50-52% on $\pi_{0.5}$), so all conclusions are conditional on the fixed grafting protocol. We position frozen grafting as a cheap target-backbone diagnostic to run before committing to an encoder at scale, not as a closed-loop deployment claim.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Stochastic Expectation Maximization for Robust State-Space Radio Interferometric Imaging

arXiv:2606.23944v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: State–space models provide a flexible framework for analyzing dynamical systems, yet they often rely on Gaussian assumptions that fail to capture heavy-tailed or outlier-prone measurement noise. We propose a robust estimation scheme for linear state–space models subject to compound-Gaussian noise, as encountered for instance in radio interferometry affected by radio-frequency interference (RFI). The method relies on a Stochastic Approximation Expectation–Maximization (SAEM) algorithm in which the standard E-step is replaced by Monte Carlo sampling of the latent states and noise texture through closed-form Gibbs updates, enabling tractable inference despite the heavy-tailed likelihood. Numerical experiments show that the proposed method significantly improves reconstruction fidelity and robustness to RFI, outperforming a Gaussian EM algorithm and even an oracle RTS smoother. These results highlight the benefits of heavy-tailed state–space modeling and SAEM-based inference in interference-dominated imaging scenarios.

06.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-18

fuzzyfold: a high-performance framework for stochastic RNA folding kinetics

作者:

The analysis of nucleic acid secondary structures is overwhelmingly dominated by methods that analyze the thermodynamic equilibrium distribution and which ignore all dynamic aspects of nucleic acid folding. Yet, there are numerous popular examples of nucleic acid folding that rely on kinetic models, such as RNA riboswitches or DNA strand displacement systems. Here, I am presenting fuzzyfold, a Rust-based software package for nucleic acid secondary structure analysis with an explicit focus on stochastic modeling. The framework introduces three-way and four-way shift moves with a biophysically motivated rate-model parameterization, and it is developed with an emphasis on both model flexibility and performance, e.g. allowing for the generation of single co-transcriptional trajectories for thousand-nucleotide long RNA molecules in just a few minutes. The main strength of the fuzzyfold package, however, is its focus on user and developer interfaces for long-term development. It provides easily installable command-line interfaces, e.g. for aggregating data from multiple parallel trajectories efficiently into an ensemble-level dynamic analysis. For developers, the code-base supports straight-forward substitution of thermodynamic and kinetic free-energy models, and a flexible library interface with Python bindings, enabling integration of individual components into custom computational workflows.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Policy-Embedded Graph Expansion: Networked HIV Testing with Diffusion-Driven Network Samples

arXiv:2601.16233v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: HIV is a retrovirus that attacks the human immune system and can lead to death without proper treatment. In collaboration with the WHO and the University of Witwatersrand, we study how to improve the efficiency of HIV testing with the goal of eventual deployment, directly supporting progress toward UN Sustainable Development Goal 3.3. While prior work has demonstrated the promise of intelligent algorithms for sequential, network-based HIV testing, existing approaches rely on assumptions that are impractical in our real-world implementations. Here, we study sequential testing on incrementally revealed disease networks and introduce Policy-Embedded Graph Expansion (PEGE), a novel framework that directly embeds a generative distribution over graph expansions into the decision-making policy rather than attempting explicit topological reconstruction. We further propose Dynamics-Driven Branching (DDB), a diffusion-based graph expansion model that supports decision making in PEGE and is designed for data-limited settings where forest structures arise naturally, as in our real-world referral process. Experiments on real HIV transmission networks show that the combined approach (PEGE + DDB) consistently outperforms baselines (e.g., 17.3% improvement in discounted reward and 15.4% more HIV detections with 25% of the population tested) and explore key tradeoffs that drive solution quality.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Scaling Laws of Global Weather Models

arXiv:2602.22962v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Data-driven models are revolutionizing weather forecasting. To optimize training efficiency and model performance, this paper analyzes empirical scaling laws within this domain. We investigate the relationship between model performance (validation loss) and three key factors: model size ($N$), dataset size ($D$), and compute budget ($C$). Across a range of models, we find that Aurora exhibits the strongest data-scaling behavior: increasing the training dataset by 10x reduces validation loss by up to 3.2x. GraphCast demonstrates the highest parameter efficiency, yet suffers from limited hardware utilization. Our compute-optimal analysis indicates that, under fixed compute budgets, allocating resources to more total training data yields greater performance gains than increasing model size. Furthermore, we analyze model shape and uncover scaling behaviors that differ fundamentally from those observed in language models: weather forecasting models consistently favor increased width over depth. These findings suggest that future weather models should prioritize wider architectures and larger effective training datasets to maximize predictive performance.

09.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Efficacy and safety of semaglutide for obesity and hyperphagia in adults with Prader-Willi syndrome

Context: Prader-Willi syndrome is a genetic neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by hyperphagia and early-onset obesity from hypothalamic dysfunction with endocrinopathies and learning disability. Management is challenging with strict control of the food environment needed. While newer glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, such as semaglutide, have efficacy in non-PWS obesity, there have been limited case reports in PWS. Objective/Design/Setting: Retrospective records review of 12 adults with PWS and overweight/obesity treated with semaglutide at a UK academic hospital centre specialist clinic. Patients: mean +/- SD age 28.3 +/- 10.1 years, 83% female, BMI 46.6 +/- 8.2kg/m2, 75% type 2 diabetes mellitus. Intervention: Median follow-up 17.2 months (range 8.7-36.1) with median semaglutide dose 2.4mg once weekly (1.0-2.4). Results: Although there was no significant weight loss on semaglutide, there was stabilisation of the weight gain prior to treatment over previous 12.4 months (7.6-23.0) (post -3.1 +/- 9.9% vs. pre +5.7 +/- 5.6%: d -0.72, P=0.037). There was a significant decrease in hyperphagia on semaglutide from hyperphagia questionnaire for clinical trials (n=11, -7.3 +/- 6.1 (max 36), d -1.19, P=0.003), having been stable before treatment. HbA1c improved in those with elevated baseline levels (n=6, -4.2 +/- 4.9%, d -0.74, P=0.13). Mild gastrointestinal side effects were seen in 25% but did not lead to discontinuation. Conclusions: In adults with PWS, semaglutide produced weight maintenance, reduced hyperphagia, and improved glycaemic control, with good tolerability. Larger placebo-controlled trials are needed to confirm these findings in adults and adolescents with PWS, especially in those without T2DM, where efficacy may be greater.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

A Controlled Benchmark of Quantum-Latent GAN Augmentation for Brain MRI

Medical image classification is often constrained by limited labeled data, motivating generative augmentation; recently, quantum generative models have been proposed for this purpose, frequently reporting accuracy gains. However, such claims are typically based on single training runs, do not match the parameter budgets of the quantum and classical generators, and do not characterize the data regime in which any benefit appears. We present a controlled benchmark that isolates the contribution of a quantum generator to brain-MRI augmentation. Images are encoded into a KL-regularized latent space in which a conditional Wasserstein GAN with gradient penalty is trained using either a variational quantum generator or a classical generator of near-identical parameter count (1648 vs. 1632). Synthetic samples are decoded and used to augment a pretrained classifier across labeled data fractions from 5% to 100%, evaluated over eight random seeds with paired significance testing (with multiple-comparison correction) and with intraset diversity and latent-distribution analyses. Across all fractions, no augmentation variant significantly outperforms real-data-only training, and the quantum and classical generators are statistically indistinguishable. Any low-data benefit behaves as regularization rather than faithful data expansion:synthetic samples are off distribution and severely mode collapsed precisely where data is scarce, and the quantum generator is no more diverse thanits classical counterpart. We release the protocol as a testbed for rigorous evaluation of quantum generative augmentation in medical imaging.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Beyond Bayer: Task-Optimal Sensor Co-Design for Robust Autonomous-Driving Segmentation

arXiv:2606.24096v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Robust perception underpins autonomous driving, and most recent progress comes from scaling the model-larger backbones, foundation models, and cooperative multi-agent fusion. We pursue a complementary, upstream question: what should the camera itself measure? Using a differentiable RAW-to-task pipeline, we decompose which sensor degrees of freedom benefit dense prediction. Learning the spectral colour-filter-array (CFA) weights is the dominant lever, improving mIoU by +0.017 (KITTI-360) and +0.023 (ACDC) over a fixed camera. In contrast, point-spread-function (optics) co-design is net-negative (-0.020 mIoU on KITTI-360) - a consequence of the data-processing inequality, which also bounds the task information that any downstream model, however large or cooperative, can recover. Noise co-optimisation is marginal, and counter to intuition enlarging the CFA tile beyond 2x2 consistently hurts, as the filters are confined to the rank three sRGB input. Because the intervention is at the sensor, the gains are model-agnostic; we validate robustness on ACDC's fog, night, rain, and snow, and conclude with a simple recipe: learn the 2x2 CFA weights and keep an identity PSF.

12.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Agentic Retrieval and Reinforcement Learned Equation Chains: A Controlled Generation Framework for Complex and Novel Physics Word Problems

Generating high-quality Physics Word Problems (PWPs) that are novel, complex, and solvable remains a challenging and underexplored problem in educational content generation. Existing approaches, many adapted from Math Word Problem (MWP) generation, often produce ambiguous, unsolvable, or structurally simple questions with limited linguistic diversity. We introduce ARVRE (Agentic Retrieval Value Reinforced Equation-chain), a two-stage framework for generating diverse and mathematically valid PWPs. In the first stage, a form of offline temporal-difference learning is used to construct valid chains of physics equations, while an agentic retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) framework dynamically selects topic-specific concepts and vocabulary. This design enables explicit control over problem structure and difficulty. In the second stage, a Large Language Model (LLM) converts the equation chain and retrieved concepts into a natural-language physics question. By grounding generation in valid equation chains, our method preserves mathematical correctness while promoting linguistic diversity and contextual richness. Human and automated evaluations demonstrate that ARVRE generates PWPs that are more complex, novel, and solvable than those produced by existing approaches. These results highlight the potential of combining reinforcement learning, retrieval, and LLMs for reliable generation of educational physics content.

13.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Exact log-depth preparation of highly entangled matrix product states

arXiv:2606.24475v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Preparing matrix product states (MPS) on a quantum device is a key subroutine in many quantum algorithms. The most competitive methods, based on the renormalisation group, prepare translationally invariant MPS of size $L$ and bond dimension $\chi$, up to an error $\varepsilon$, in circuit depth $\tilde O(\chi^{4}\log(L/\varepsilon))$ or $\tilde O(\chi^{6}\log\log(L/\varepsilon))$. We improve multiple aspects of these methods. First, using block-encoded correction maps, whose post-selection succeeds with constant probability, we render the preparation exact without sacrificing the scaling in $L$. Second, through a generalisation of oblivious amplitude amplification to isometries, we reduce the bond-dimension dependence, improving the depth to $\tilde O(\chi^{2}\log L + \chi^{4})$ or $\tilde O(\chi^{2}\log\log L + \chi^{4})$, and even to $\tilde O(\chi^{3}\log L)$ for incoherent preparations. Finally, we extend the framework to non-translationally invariant MPS and prove logarithmic-depth exact preparation for independent and identically distributed random tensor sequences. Confirmed by numerical studies, these results constitute, to the best of our knowledge, the most efficient exact MPS preparation protocols in the relevant parameter regimes.

14.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Sub-Riemannian spectral distance

arXiv:2606.12804v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the ``div-grad type" sub-Laplacian with respect to Popp's volume on a compact equiregular sub-Riemannian manifold $M$. Since Popp's volume is canonically determined by the sub-Riemannian structure of $M$, the spetra of the sub-Laplacian carry geometric meanings. In this paper, we first embed $M$ into the Hilbert space of square-summable sequences using eigenfunctions and then define a spectral distance between two compact equiregular sub-Riemannian manifolds. Our result is a sub-Riemannian analogue of Berard-Besson-Gallot's classical work in the Riemannian case.

15.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

The Amazon can be saved — with concerted action inside and outside Brazil

作者: 未知作者

As deforestation in the Amazon falls, fresh evidence shows that the rainforest can withstand global warming, but only if there is a worldwide effort to stop cutting it down. As deforestation in the Amazon falls, fresh evidence shows that the rainforest can withstand global warming, but only if there is a worldwide effort to stop cutting it down.

16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

A Machine Learning Framework for Real-Time Personalized Ergonomic Pose Analysis

This paper introduces a new methodology for real-time prediction of ergonomic and non-ergonomic human poses using volumetric video data in three dimensions. Although the methodology was designed for ergonomic assessments, it can be adapted to other applications requiring real-time analysis of human posture. One aspect that makes this system stand out is its ability to analyze 3D point clouds during the assessment, enabling computation from multiple angles. This overcomes a critical limitation of cameras which provide often a fixed viewpoint, thereby restricting the data available for a thorough postural evaluation, especially when occlusions occur. The system continuously and automatically performs pose inference using the chosen perspective on the real-time streaming data; however, only the poses manually selected and labeled by the user are used to train the personalized deep learning classifier. The methodology has been refined through a case study in which RGB-D cameras captured subjects performing load-lifting tasks, enabling real-time skeletal labeling. The model was trained on this data and, following the training phase, performs inference on new streaming data in real time. This research offers a scalable and pragmatic approach for real-time ergonomic evaluation by combining state-of-the-art 3D data technologies and traditional 2D pose estimation algorithms. It addresses the increasing need for safety and health monitoring in workplace environments, marking a notable contribution to the domain.

17.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

(Non)-hyperuniformity of perturbed lattices

arXiv:2405.19881v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We ask whether a stationary lattice in dimension $d$ whose points are shifted by identically distributed but possibly dependent perturbations remains hyperuniform. When $d = 1$ or $2$, we show that it is the case when the perturbations have a finite $d$-moment, and that this condition is sharp. When $d \geq 3$, we construct arbitrarily small perturbations such that the resulting point process is not hyperuniform. As a side remark of independent interest, we exhibit hyperuniform processes with arbitrarily slow decay of their number variance.

18.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Instability of a nonlinear oscillator with small friction and small additive noise

arXiv:2606.11389v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Let $\lambda = \lambda(\beta,\sigma,a,b)$ denote the top Lyapunov exponent for the linearization along trajectories of the noisy damped non-linear oscillator $\ddot{x}+\beta \dot{x} + ax+bx^3 = \sigma \dot{W}_t$, where $a$, $b$ and $\beta$ are all positive and $\sigma \neq 0$. In 2004 Arnold, Imkeller and Sri Namachchivaya stated without proof that $\lambda(\varepsilon^2 \beta,\varepsilon \sigma,a,b) \sim \overline{\lambda} \varepsilon^{2/3}$ as $\varepsilon \to 0$ with $\overline{\lambda} > 0$. This paper contains a proof of this assertion.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Remember, Don't Re-read: Stateful ReAct Agents for Token-Efficient Autonomous Experimentation

arXiv:2606.14945v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The autoresearch pattern enables autonomous experimentation by having a large language model (LLM) iteratively modify code to optimize a target metric. Its stateless design, however, reconstructs experimental context from scratch at every iteration, incurring $O(n)$ token cost per iteration and $O(n^{2})$ total. This work reformulates the pattern as a stateful ReAct agent using LangGraph, where typed persistent state carries experimental history across iterations via a tool-calling interface. Two benchmarks are evaluated: hyperparameter tuning (15 iterations, small per-iteration observations) and code performance optimization (40 iterations, large per-iteration observations containing full source code and benchmark results). On hyperparameter tuning, the stateful agent consumes 90\% fewer tokens (2{,}492 vs.\ 24{,}465). On code optimization, the stateful agent consumes 52\% fewer tokens (627K vs.\ 1{,}275K) while achieving comparable optimization quality on both tasks. The token reduction is structural: the stateless agent re-reads the full history at $O(n)$ cost per iteration, while the stateful agent operates within a fixed-size conversation window at $O(1)$ cost. This paper describes the architecture in sufficient detail for practitioners to implement a stateful autoresearch agent for their own workflows.

20.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Geometry-Instructed Video Editing

Object-level geometric edits, including translating, rotating, scaling, duplicating, or removing an object, are routine operations in digital content creation (DCC) workflows, yet they remain unreliable in generative video editing. The key challenge lies in specifying the target object's 3D state change unambiguously across viewpoint and time, while consistently updating geometry-dependent secondary effects such as shadows and reflections. We introduce GIVE, a geometry-instructed video editing framework that represents edits through a unified object-state formulation. Two video-aligned geometry streams describe the target object before and after editing: a depth-box encoding coarse 3D placement and extent, and an orientation-box providing an appearance-agnostic orientation cue. Together, these streams provide a compact pre/post geometric specification for object-state transitions. To provide paired supervision for learning these edits, we build a scalable graphics-engine pipeline that executes object-level edit programs and renders controlled before/after pairs, isolating the intended geometric edit while keeping secondary effects consistent with the transformation. Experimental results demonstrate that GIVE produces faithful geometric edits with temporal coherence and consistent secondary effects across operators in a unified framework, and shows promising transfer to in-the-wild videos. Project page: https://geometry-instructed-video-editing.github.io/give/

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Curiosity-Critic: Cumulative Prediction Error Improvement as a Tractable Intrinsic Reward for World Model Training

arXiv:2604.18701v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Local prediction-error-based curiosity rewards focus on the current transition without considering the world model's cumulative prediction error across all visited transitions. We introduce Curiosity-Critic, which grounds its intrinsic reward in the improvement of this cumulative objective, and show that it admits a tractable per-step surrogate: the difference between the current prediction error and the asymptotic error baseline of the current state transition. We estimate this error baseline online with a learned critic co-trained alongside the world model; since the critic only has to learn how hard a transition is to predict, its estimate of the irreducible noise floor converges well before the world model saturates, redirecting exploration toward learnable transitions. The reward is higher for learnable transitions and collapses toward zero for stochastic ones, thereby separating epistemic (reducible) from aleatoric (irreducible) prediction error online. Prior prediction-error curiosity formulations, from Schmidhuber (1991) to learned-feature-space variants, emerge as special cases corresponding to specific approximations of this error baseline. Experiments on a stochastic grid world show that Curiosity-Critic outperforms prediction-error, visitation-count, and Random Network Distillation methods in training speed and final world model accuracy.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Gradient boosting for extremes: sampling theory and application to insurance

arXiv:2606.14268v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We develop a statistical learning theory for gradient boosting applied to the estimation of covariate-dependent Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions in the context of Peaks-over-Threshold modeling. After an orthogonal reparametrization of the GP likelihood that diagonalizes its Fisher information matrix, we cast the estimation problem within the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework and derive non-asymptotic error bounds for the boosting estimator. Our analysis accounts for three distinct sources of error in the process: statistical fluctuations, the approximation bias inherent to the asymptotic nature of the GP model-controlled under second-order regular variation-and the approximation error associated with the finite number of boosting iterates, making explicit the resulting bias-variance trade-off. We illustrate the practical benefits of the reparametrization through simulations, showing that it significantly reduces gradient correlation during training and improves convergence stability. The methodology is applied to a medical malpractice insurance dataset from the Texas Department of Insurance, comprising over 18 000 closed claims. The gradient boosting approach yields a good fit for the tail of settlement cost distributions and reveals that the number of days to settlement is the dominant predictor of tail heaviness, consistent with earlier findings in the reserving literature.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Disentangling Confounders from Pathology in Long-COVID Trajectory Prediction for Women: An Interpretable Large-Language-Model Approach

Objective. Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC, "Long COVID") dispropor- tionately affects women, in whom hallmark symptoms–insomnia, fatigue, palpitations, cogni- tive difficulty–overlap with comorbidities and hormonal transitions such as menopause. This diagnostic overlap is a confounding problem: models that forecast future symptom severity risk attributing baseline physiological noise to viral pathology. We ask whether an interpretable, causally disentangled language model can separate true pathological signal from such con- founders while remaining competitive with strong predictors of future PASC severity

24.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Benchmarking Agentic Review Systems

A new class of agentic review systems are emerging as a remedy to the pressure placed on peer review systems by AI-assisted research, but it is unclear how they should be evaluated. We evaluate two open-source systems (OpenAIReview and coarse), one proprietary system (Reviewer3), and a zero-shot baseline, across six LLMs spanning frontier and efficient models. First, we study whether AI reviews on ICLR/NeurIPS papers track with papers' quality as approximated by external signals such as citations and acceptance decisions. Every system performs above chance in pairwise accuracy, and the best is OpenAIReview + GPT-5.5 at 83.0%. Second, to test whether systems can catch errors with known ground truth, we construct a perturbation benchmark that injects four categories of errors into papers across eight arXiv subject classes and measure detection recall. The strongest configuration (OpenAIReview + GPT-5.5) catches 71.6% of injected errors, leaving substantial room for improvement. The union of detections across six models reaches 83.3% recall, suggesting different models detect different errors and better harness design can potentially increase performance. Beyond these benchmarks, we study a public deployment of OpenAIReview with real users. Votes on its comments skew positive at 1.44 to 1, and the most common complaints are about false positives and minor nitpicks. Together, by evaluating full review systems backed by state-of-the-art models on real research papers, we show that while AI reviews still have room for improvement, they can already track human quality judgments well, catch important errors, and earn positive feedback from real users.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Robust Regularized Policy Iteration under Transition Uncertainty

arXiv:2603.09344v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Offline reinforcement learning (RL) enables data-efficient and safe policy learning without online exploration, but its performance often degrades under distribution shift. The learned policy may visit out-of-distribution state-action pairs where value estimates and learned dynamics are unreliable. To address policy-induced extrapolation and transition uncertainty in a unified framework, we formulate offline RL as robust policy optimization, treating the transition kernel as a decision variable within an uncertainty set and optimizing the policy against the worst-case dynamics. We propose Robust Regularized Policy Iteration (RRPI), which replaces the intractable max-min bilevel objective with a tractable KL-regularized surrogate and derives an efficient policy iteration procedure based on a robust regularized Bellman operator. We provide theoretical guarantees by showing that the proposed operator is a $\gamma$-contraction and that iteratively updating the surrogate yields monotonic improvement of the original robust objective with convergence. Experiments on D4RL benchmarks demonstrate that RRPI achieves strong average performance, outperforming recent baselines including percentile-based methods on the majority of environments while remaining competitive on the rest. Moreover, RRPI exhibits robust performance by aligning lower $Q$-values with high epistemic uncertainty, which prevents the policy from executing unreliable out-of-distribution actions.