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01.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

Dango: A Strictly L1-Only Large Language Model for Studying Second Language Acquisition

We introduce Dango, a 1.8B-parameter large language model designed for controlled studies of L1-to-L2 (Japanese-to-English) transfer in second language acquisition (SLA). While previous studies have explored SLA in language models, they have predominantly relied on smaller or non-decoder models, limiting their ability to generate open-ended text and reducing their suitability as practical L2 simulators. We identify a key challenge when scaling models to this size: L2 contamination within the "monolingual" pretraining corpus used for L1 acquisition. To address this, we propose a filtering method to reduce premature exposure to English while preserving realistic, minimal exposure. We then fine-tune the model on LLM-generated L2-learning lessons to simulate the L2 acquisition process. Our evaluations confirm that Dango develops human-like L2 production patterns, outperforming both unfiltered and standard multilingual baselines. We release the model, data, and code to facilitate reproducible computational SLA research and learner-facing applications.

02.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Can Agents Read the Room? Benchmarking Visual Social Intelligence in Multimodal Simulation

Social interaction depends on both language and visible social signals, such as facial expressions, posture, gaze, and emotional shifts. Yet existing social-agent benchmarks are largely text-based and rarely test whether multimodal agents can use visual cues to guide interaction. We introduce \textsc{\benchmarkname{}}, a benchmark evaluating visual social intelligence in multimodal social simulation. It contains 240 scenarios, 585 role instances, and 2,340 role-task instances, combining aligned textual-visual evidence, structured role profiles, and four role-level tasks: expression task, characteristic task, interaction regulation task, and interaction outcome task. Evaluating seven recent MLLMs under verbalized-vision and direct-vision reveals a clear gap between local role enactment and interaction management: role-specific expression and conflict handling are near saturation, whereas interaction regulation and visually grounded outcome achievement remain substantially more difficult. The code is released at https://github.com/JunsWan/AgentViSS, and the dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/JunsWan/AgentViSS.

03.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Non-Parametric Ancestry Adjustment for Polygenic Scores

Modern polygenic risk scores (PRS) exhibit shifts correlated with ancestry, leading to erroneous predictions for non-European individuals when models are trained on predominantly European cohorts. Such shifts arise from, among other factors, (1) algorithmic limitations in the ability of PRS model training to detect causal variants, rather than nearby variants with ancestry-dependent correlations to the causal one, (2) under-representation of alleles with higher prevalence in non-European populations in the association study training, and (3) gene-by-environment interactions where the environment is correlated with genetic ancestry. Current ancestry-adjustment methodologies often discretize individuals into population categories and apply a simple affine mapping to reduce these genetic ancestry biases. However, such approaches provide suboptimal adjustments, particularly for admixed individuals. In this work, we introduce a detailed theoretical characterization of ancestry-dependent biases and propose novel methods based on non-parametric neighborhood techniques that provide more accurate empirical results and admit statistical consistency guarantees. Extensive experiments using the UK Biobank demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Uncertainty Is Not a Safety Net for Clinical VQA, but Can It Anticipate Model Failure?

Safe deployment of clinical vision-language models (VLMs) requires reliable uncertainty estimation (UE): a signal indicating when predictions should be trusted or escalated to a clinician. We test whether current UE methods actually deliver this signal. Benchmarking 8 methods across 12 VLMs on clinical visual question-answering (VQA), we find that UE quality is not an intrinsic property of the UE method: it tracks model accuracy, degrading precisely where the model performance is weakest, and therefore where reliability is most needed. When we stress-test models by hiding the correct option among the multiple-choice answers (NOTA perturbations), accuracy collapses while uncertainty barely changes, leaving models systematically miscalibrated. Yet, we find that uncertainty on the unperturbed input reliably anticipates which predictions will collapse under NOTA, indicating that UE in current VLMs carries diagnostic information about model fragility. Our results position UE as a diagnostic tool for identifying fragile predictions and motivate perturbation-based evaluation as a path toward safe clinical deployment.

05.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

How Linear Is a Transformer Feed-Forward Block? Per-Block Linear Recoverability Is Learned, Not Architectural

作者:

Transformer feed-forward networks (FFNs) are often treated as nonlinear stores of computation, yet how nonlinear a trained FFN block actually is has rarely been measured. We treat each FFN as a position-wise input-to-output map and split it into the exact least-squares linear approximation plus a residual. The held-out variance the closed-form linear map explains defines a block's linear recoverability (R^2_lin), an optimiser-free measure of its linearity. Across all twelve blocks of GPT-2, Pythia-160m, and llama-160m, R^2_lin is highly heterogeneous and non-monotone with depth, ranging from near-linear (>0.99) to strongly nonlinear (

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Kalman Linear Attention: Parallel Bayesian Filtering For Efficient Language Modelling and State Tracking

arXiv:2602.10743v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: State-space language models such as Mamba and gated linear attention (GLA) offer linear-complexity, parallelisable alternatives to transformers, but their linear state updates limit expressivity and robust state tracking. We close this gap from a probabilistic angle, casting sequence mixing as exact Bayesian filtering with the Kalman filter as the core primitive. Classical Kalman filters give principled state and uncertainty estimates but are viewed as inherently sequential; we show that reparameterising them in information form turns their updates into an associative scan - so the per-token recurrent update is non-linear (a Möbius/precision recursion) yet remains temporally parallel. The resulting Kalman Linear Attention (KLA) layer is a drop-in sequence mixer that performs time-parallel probabilistic inference, carries an explicit belief-state uncertainty, and is strictly more expressive than GLA-style linear updates at the same computational cost. This expressivity translates directly into stronger state tracking: KLA solves permutation-composition ($A_5$) tasks that linear SSMs and attention cannot, while staying scan-parallel. As a drop-in primitive it also matches or improves on modern SSMs and GLAs across synthetic token-manipulation and zero-shot commonsense benchmarks, and is among the first stacked Bayesian-filtering primitives trained at the billion-token scale.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

OccAny: Generalized Unconstrained Urban 3D Occupancy

Relying on in-domain annotations and precise sensor-rig priors, existing 3D occupancy prediction methods are limited in both scalability and out-of-domain generalization. While recent visual geometry foundation models exhibit strong generalization capabilities, they were mainly designed for general purposes and lack one or more key ingredients required for urban occupancy prediction, namely metric prediction, geometry completion in cluttered scenes and adaptation to urban scenarios. We address this gap and present OccAny, the first unconstrained urban 3D occupancy model capable of operating on out-of-domain uncalibrated scenes to predict and complete metric occupancy coupled with segmentation features. OccAny is versatile and can predict occupancy from sequential, monocular, or surround-view images. Our contributions are three-fold: (i) we propose the first generalized 3D occupancy framework with (ii) Segmentation Forcing that improves occupancy quality while enabling mask-level prediction, and (iii) a Novel View Rendering pipeline that infers novel-view geometry to enable test-time view augmentation for geometry completion. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OccAny outperforms all visual geometry baselines on 3D occupancy prediction task, while remaining competitive with in-domain self-supervised methods across three input settings on two established urban occupancy prediction datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/valeoai/OccAny .

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Cross-Model Disagreement as a Label-Free Correctness Signal

arXiv:2603.25450v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Detecting when a language model is wrong without ground truth labels is a fundamental challenge for safe deployment. Existing approaches rely on a model's own uncertainty – such as token entropy or confidence scores – but these signals fail critically on the most dangerous failure mode: confident errors, where a model is wrong but certain. In this work we introduce cross-model disagreement as a correctness indicator – a simple, training-free signal that can be dropped into existing production systems, routing pipelines, and deployment monitoring infrastructure without modification. Given a model's generated answer, cross-model disagreement computes how surprised or uncertain a second verifier model is when reading that answer via a single forward pass. No generation from the verifying model is required, and no correctness labels are needed. We instantiate this principle as Cross-Model Perplexity (CMP), which measures the verifying model's surprise at the generating model's answer tokens, and Cross-Model Entropy (CME), which measures the verifying model's uncertainty at those positions. Both CMP and CME outperform within-model uncertainty baselines across benchmarks spanning reasoning, retrieval, and mathematical problem solving (MMLU, TriviaQA, and GSM8K). On MMLU, CMP achieves a mean AUROC of 0.75 against a within-model entropy baseline of 0.59. These results establish cross-model disagreement as a practical, training-free approach to label-free correctness estimation, with direct applications in deployment monitoring, model routing, selective prediction, data filtering, and scalable oversight of production language model systems.

09.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Conditional Latent Diffusion Model with Fourier-based Motion Modelling for Virtual Population Synthesis

In-silico trials of medical devices require the generation of virtual populations of anatomies. In cardiovascular applications, virtual anatomy is typically represented as a 3D+t mesh sampled from a generative model. However, most existing mesh generators focus on static anatomy, while sequence models often lack explicit periodicity. To this end, we propose 4D F-MeshLDM, a conditional generative framework comprising a convolutional mesh VAE to encode meshes, a structural latent space that parameterises motion using a truncated Fourier series, and a diffusion prior that learns the latent distribution over Fourier coefficient tokens. By conditioning the diffusion process on clinical covariates via affine modulation, we enable controllable synthesis. Sampling tokens and performing inverse Fourier synthesis yield cycle-consistent latent trajectories, which can be decoded into 3D+t cardiac mesh sequences. Experiments on 5,000 UK Biobank subjects demonstrate that 4D F-MeshLDM outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in anatomical fidelity and achieves near-zero cycle closure error. Furthermore, the generated cohorts accurately preserve clinical functional indices, highlighting the potential of our framework for reliable in-silico cardiac trials.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Autonomous Video Generation with Counterfactual Controllability for Self-Evolving World Models

Existing literature claims that video generation essentially is world modelling. On the one hand, the claim is productive because it pushes generative AI beyond static images and toward temporally extended physical scenes. On the other hand, this claim dangerously relies on the belief that scaling visual prediction alone will automatically yield physical agents. We prefer a more accurate statement: video generation models learn a partial, implicit spatiotemporal world model, but not a fully grounded or controllable one. The reason is as follows: a model may generate a plausible video of a drone crossing a forest or a robot arm manipulating a cup, yet still fail to know which variables are controllable, which constraints belong to a particular body and which futures remain valid under intervention. The frontier in essence is not predictive realism alone, instead it emphasizes a self-evolving generative nature that requires the decisive criterion to be counterfactual controllability: the capability of asking what would happen under an action, to test whether the generated future can survive embodiment constraints and to feed the resulting action knowledge back into future imagination (generation). Therefore, in this paper we present a new perspective, i.e., autonomous video generation with counterfactual controllability is one promising way to realize self-evolving world models.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Linear Mode Connectivity under Data Shifts for Deep Ensembles of Image Classifiers

arXiv:2511.04514v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The phenomenon of linear mode connectivity (LMC) links several aspects of deep learning, including training stability under noisy stochastic gradients, the smoothness and generalization of local minima (basins), the similarity and functional diversity of sampled models, and architectural effects on data processing. In this work, we experimentally study LMC under data shifts and identify conditions that mitigate their impact. We interpret data shifts as an additional source of stochastic gradient noise, which can be reduced through small learning rates and large batch sizes. These parameters influence whether models converge to the same local minimum or to regions of the loss landscape with varying smoothness and generalization. Although models sampled via LMC tend to make similar errors more frequently than those converging to different basins, the benefit of LMC lies in balancing training efficiency against the gains achieved from larger, more diverse ensembles. Code and supplementary materials are available at https://github.com/DLR-KI/LMC. This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication. Copyright may be transferred without notice, after which this version may no longer be accessible.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

GeoDial: A Multimodal Conversational Tutoring Dataset for Geometry Problem-Solving with Visual Tutor Turns

arXiv:2606.12419v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Several educational domains rely heavily on diagrams and visual cues, yet most existing tutoring datasets are limited to text-only interactions. This limits the development of AI tutors that can teach in visually grounded ways used by human instructors. Thus, we introduce GeoDial, a multimodal tutoring dataset of over 1.3K teacher-student dialogs in the domain of geometry collected from experienced math teachers, where instructional turns are explicitly grounded in diagram highlights. We propose a scalable annotation protocol that integrates dialog acts, visual highlighting, and feedback, enabling fine-grained supervision of both language and visual tutoring behavior. To illustrate the challenges posed by this setting, we fine-tune several vision-language models on GeoDial and evaluate their ability to generate tutoring utterances and diagram highlights. While supervised fine-tuning substantially improves the quality of generated dialog, it struggles to produce accurate diagram highlights, revealing a key limitation of current methods and highlighting the need for approaches that more effectively integrate visual reasoning with pedagogical interaction.

13.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

OQMD: Single-Qubit Rotation Control Improves Low-CNOT Multiclass Quantum Classification

arXiv:2606.14088v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Near-term variational classifiers incur substantial error and latency from two-qubit gates, yet practitioners often assume that additional entangling depth is the default route to higher accuracy. This work studies Optimal Quantum Measurement Decoding (OQMD): optimizing how quantum outcomes are mapped to classical labels by training a readout layer before measurement, jointly with the variational circuit, without adding CNOTs. Experiments use trainable triple single-qubit rotations as one concrete, hardware-native realization of OQMD; other single-qubit parametrizations fit the same classical outer loop. On the Iris benchmark with a 30-point stratified test split, the best observed 0-CNOT configuration with OQMD reaches 83.33\% accuracy, with a 96\% at 9 CNOTs, exceeding the best 18-CNOT controls (56.67\%) and the best 18-CNOT configuration with OQMD (66.67\%) under a common protocol. A six-point CNOT-depth series from 0 to 18 (fixed optimizer, iteration budget, random-seed count, and ZXZ readout) shows that the highest raw scores need not occur at the largest template, so aggregate complexity is not summarized by CNOT count alone. Because run-level accuracies are discrete and non-Gaussian, we emphasize best-observed scores and, where a global comparison of pooled runs is required, Mann–Whitney $U$ tests rather than parametric tests on means. Across architectures, OQMD shows statistically consistent but magnitude-dependent gains: large peak lifts on minimal circuits coexist with a small pooled mean shift on complex 18-CNOT runs ($p\approx 0.03$) that is not ``universal'' in the sense of uniformly large practical effects.%

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Latent Confounded Causal Discovery via Lie Bracket Geometry

arXiv:2606.19610v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent work on Kan-Do-Calculus (KDC) has established that the boundary between passive observation and active intervention in causal inference is a category-theoretic bi-adjunction, with interventions modeled by left Kan extensions and conditioning by right Kan extensions. This paper introduces two causal discovery algorithms under latent confounding, building on the information-geometric and categorical consequences of KDC. In smooth statistical settings, Radon-Nikodym derivatives between observational and interventional measures induce local causal vector fields; failures of these fields to close under Lie brackets become computable Frobenius residuals, which we interpret as witnesses of failed visible integrability and possible latent or unmodeled structure. Our first algorithm, BRIDGE (Bracket Residuals for Interventional Discovery and Geometric Estimation), combines an interventional density or Radon-Nikodym-ratio engine with a geometric screen that proposes a high-recall family of admissible arrows, identifies non-closing visible pairs as latent-obstruction candidates, and passes the reduced family to downstream score-based or differentiable discovery routines. The second algorithmic contribution, Spectral Kan-Do Flow Matching (SKFM), learns amortized intervention fields and factors latent curvature spectrally, exposing the direct Lie-space endpoint toward which BRIDGE points. A detailed set of experiments show that both algorithms are capable of discovering causal models with latent confounders while collapsing the super-exponential space of possible DAGs by many orders of magnitude. This paper introduces a new paradigm in causal discovery, where latent structure is inferred directly from the geometry of intervention-induced flows.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Prefill Awareness in Large Language Models

arXiv:2606.12747v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Safety-relevant studies of language models, including alignment and jailbreaking evaluations and AI control protocols, often rely on prefilling model outputs. If AI models can recognize and act on the fact their prior assistant messages have been inserted or edited, the effectiveness and validity of these methods could be compromised. We investigate whether frontier language models can distinguish between tampered and untampered assistant-side context, a capability we call prefill awareness. To do so, we construct a binary preference benchmark across three prefill mechanisms, filtering for cases where models show consistent stances. We find that frontier models show substantial prefill awareness: Claude Opus 4.5 detects prefills opposing its preferences in 9-35% of cases with a 0% false positive rate when prompted; additionally, models often revert towards baseline behavior without explicitly reporting that the prefill was foreign. Controlled ablations later also show that detection and resistance rely on different cues, where stylistic mismatch mainly affects whether models flag a prefill as foreign, while preference mismatch mainly affects whether they revert toward their baseline answer. We also examine more realistic agentic settings such as misalignment-continuation evaluations and SWE-bench trajectories, where frontier models sometimes disavow prefilled assistant turns in ways that depend strongly on dataset, task success, and hidden formatting artifacts. Our results indicate that prefill awareness is already a substantial confound for some prefill-based methods. We recommend that model developers track this capability in frontier systems.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Blockwise Policy-Drift Gating for On-Policy Distillation

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student policy using teacher signals computed on trajectories sampled by the student itself. Recent work shows that sampled-token OPD can be fragile on long-horizon reasoning tasks and that local teacher-support matching is a simple and effective repair. This paper introduces blockwise policy-drift gating, a lightweight student-only old-current drift controller for OPD under rollout reuse. The method computes log-probability shifts between the behavior student and the current student on the sampled token path, aggregates these shifts over fixed blocks or spans, and uses the resulting detached, mean-normalized gates to reweight OPD position losses. It does not change teacher targets, teacher top-K supports, or the rollout policy. In a six-variant Qwen3 math reasoning benchmark with a uniform 200-step training budget for all trained variants, we use pass@8 as the primary problem-level solve-rate metric. Fixed 64-token block gating improves sampled-token OPD mean pass@8 from 0.4978 to 0.5160 across AIME24, AIME25, MATH500, and AMC23. On Teacher-TopK/LSM, Block64 gives the best four-benchmark mean pass@8 among trained students. The results identify local old-current policy drift as a practical control signal for reused OPD rollouts and motivate block-level gating as a simple default for improving solve-rate robustness.

17.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

All about quantum error correction: distillation, mitigation, self-correction and beyond

作者:

arXiv:2606.14034v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this work, it is shown that many quantum error-manipulating techniques, such as distillation, error mitigation, and dynamical decoupling, are special cases of the most general framework for quantum error correction. This unifying perspective is achieved by extending quantum error correction to include state-adaptive and channel-adaptive settings, as well as multi-stage coding scenarios. Based on this insight, a model of self-correcting quantum memory is also proposed. This work clarifies the relationship among these techniques and illustrates, through explicit constructions, how the unified perspective can guide the design of reliable quantum information systems.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Full-resolution MLPs Empower Medical Dense Prediction

Dense prediction is a fundamental requirement for many medical vision tasks such as medical image restoration, registration, and segmentation. The most popular vision model, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), has reached bottlenecks due to the intrinsic locality of convolution operations. Recently, transformers have been widely adopted for dense prediction for their capability to capture long-range visual dependence. However, due to the high computational complexity and large memory consumption of self-attention operations, transformers are usually used at downsampled feature resolutions. Such usage cannot effectively leverage the tissue-level textural information available only at the full image resolution. This textural information is crucial for medical dense prediction as it can differentiate the subtle human anatomy in medical images. In this study, we hypothesize that Multi-layer Perceptrons (MLPs) are superior alternatives to transformers in medical dense prediction where tissue-level details dominate the performance, as MLPs enable long-range dependence at the full image resolution. To validate our hypothesis, we develop a full-resolution hierarchical MLP framework that uses MLPs beginning from the full image resolution. We evaluate this framework with various MLP blocks on a wide range of medical dense prediction tasks including restoration, registration, and segmentation. Extensive experiments on six public well-benchmarked datasets show that, by simply using MLPs at full resolution, our framework outperforms its CNN and transformer counterparts and achieves state-of-the-art performance on various medical dense prediction tasks.

19.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

Trade-offs in Medical LLM Adaptation: An Empirical Study in French QA

The development of large language models (LLMs) has led to an increased focus on their adaptation to specialized domains and languages, yet the effectiveness of domain adaptation strategies remains unclear. We present a study of medical domain adaptation using French medical question-answering (QA) as a case study. We compare continual pretraining (CPT), supervised fine-tuning (SFT), and their combination across three model families, multiple sizes, and three initialization types, explicitly disentangling adaptation effects from base model choice. We evaluate both multiple-choice (MCQA) and open-ended QA (OEQA) under greedy and constrained decoding using automatic metrics and LLM-as-a-Judge evaluation. For MCQA, CPT+SFT most often achieves the best scores, but gains over SFT are small and frequently not statistically significant, making SFT a strong and cost-effective default. For OEQA, CPT consistently improves overlap-based metrics, while SFT often degrades generation quality; instruction tuning and CPT+SFT are preferred by LLM-based evaluation. Cross-lingual experiments further show effective transfer from French adaptation to English benchmarks. Overall, we provide practical guidelines for selecting adaptation strategies under computational constraints.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Trust-Region Diffusion Policies for Massively Parallel On-Policy RL

arXiv:2606.15260v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning with massively parallel simulations has become a standard framework for developing robust, deployable policies; however, most existing approaches still rely on simple Gaussian policy parameterizations. Diffusion models provide a more expressive policy class and have shown strong performance on challenging control problems, yet most diffusion-based RL methods are designed for offline or off-policy training. In this work, we ask whether diffusion policies can be trained effectively in the massively parallel, on-policy regime. To this end, we introduce Trust-region Diffusion Policies (TruDi), which enables diffusion policies for on-policy RL with massively parallel simulations. This setting is particularly challenging because the data distribution changes quickly across updates, making stable training with complex policies difficult. TruDi addresses this by integrating a trust-region optimization rule to enforce a KL-divergence constraint over the entire diffusion trajectory. Empirically, we evaluate TruDi on a diverse set of 4 massively parallel RL benchmarks comprising a total of 73 tasks. Across these tasks, TruDi consistently outperforms or is on-par with strong baselines on standard tasks and achieves clear gains on more challenging humanoid control tasks, establishing a strong new baseline for massively parallel on-policy RL.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Automating Geometry-Intensive Compliance Checking in BIM: Graph-Based Semantic Reasoning Framework

arXiv:2606.12065v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Automating compliance check for geometry-intensive regulations remains a significant technical bottleneck in Building Information Modeling (BIM), primarily due to the semantic disparity between high-level regulatory logic and structured IFC data. Existing methods, often reliant on static rule templates, struggle to traverse multi-hop reasoning chains or resolve latent spatial dependencies across multiple building entities. To address these challenges, a Spatial-Geometric Reasoning System for Building Information Modeling (SGR-BIM) is proposed as an integrative graph-driven reasoning framework. SGR-BIM dynamically constructs a cross-modal knowledge graph that aligns user intent, regulatory semantics, and BIM geometry, enabling interpretable reasoning without rigid hard-coding. Validated on 679 expert-verified queries from fire safety codes, the framework achieves 84.3% accuracy, representing an 8.6% improvement over enhanced-tool single-agent baselines. This research provides a graph-based semantic reasoning paradigm, enhancing the transparency and flexibility of automated geometric compliance check workflows in the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industry.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Testing For Distribution Shifts with Conditional Conformal Test Martingales

arXiv:2602.13848v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a sequential test for detecting arbitrary distribution shifts that allows conformal test martingales (CTMs) to work under a fixed, reference-conditional setting. Existing CTM detectors construct test martingales by continually growing a reference set with each incoming sample, using it to assess how atypical the new sample is relative to past observations. While this design yields anytime-valid type-I error control, it suffers from test-time contamination: after a change, post-shift observations enter the reference set and dilute the evidence for distribution shift, increasing detection delay and reducing power. In contrast, our method avoids contamination by design by comparing each new sample to a fixed null reference dataset. Our main technical contribution is a robust martingale construction that remains valid conditional on the null reference data, achieved by explicitly accounting for the estimation error in the reference distribution induced by the finite reference set. This yields anytime-valid type-I error control together with guarantees of asymptotic power one and bounded expected detection delay. Empirically, our method detects shifts faster than standard CTMs, providing a powerful and reliable distribution-shift detector.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Excess mortality in Germany during 2020-2023: A descriptive age-stratified analysis

作者:

This study investigates excess mortality in Germany in the years from 2020 to 2023 and its temporal alignment with reported COVID-19 deaths. The analysis uses annual and weekly all-cause mortality data and linear baseline trends derived from pre-pandemic years. Possible effects of demographic and population changes on baseline trends were also examined. Excess mortality was analysed over time and across age groups. Excess mortality was observed in all investigated years, rising from 2020 to its highest value in 2022. In absolute terms, the age group [≥]80 years accounted for the largest proportion of excess deaths throughout the study period. After 2021, elevated mortality relative to baseline was also observed in younger age groups down to 15 years of age, although absolute numbers remained substantially lower than in older groups. No evidence of excess mortality was observed for individuals younger than 15 years. Periods of excess mortality were temporally aligned with waves of reported COVID-19 deaths. In 2020, cumulative excess mortality after calendar week 11 closely matched reported COVID-19 deaths (43 876 vs. 41 835 deaths). Weekly excess mortality, reported COVID-19 deaths and wastewater viral load, when available showed strong temporal synchrony, although excess mortality increasingly exceeded reported COVID-19 deaths during later pandemic waves. Temporal patterns differed from the typical seasonal mortality peaks commonly associated with influenza epidemics during the early months of the year. In 2023, excess mortality declined substantially, possibly indicating a return to mortality levels before the emergence of SARS-CoV-2.

24.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Multi-Turn Reasoning When Context Arrives in Pieces: Scalable Sharding and Memory-Augmented RL

When a user reveals task-critical information across several conversation turns, LLM accuracy drops by up to 65% despite full context availability. We show that this Lost in Conversation degradation can be substantially mitigated by training models to maintain a compact rolling memory instead of attending to a growing history. To make such training scalable, we introduce a low-cost sharding pipeline that converts single-turn QA datasets into multi-turn fragmented-information episodes, eliminating the need for hours of manual annotation. Training only on sharded GSM8K, our memory-augmented policy significantly improves multi-turn accuracy and generalises zero-shot to harder math and out-of-domain long-context QA. Moreover, memory-trained models outperform full-history baselines even when given the full history at test time, suggesting that learning to compress induces more robust incremental reasoning than full-context exposure alone.

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Stringalign: Moving beyond summary statistics with a transparent Unicode-aware tool for evaluating automatic transcription models

Comparing text strings is crucial when evaluating and understanding the performance of various text processing tasks such as document recognition and audio transcription. With an increasingly complex landscape of AI-based handwritten text recognition (HTR), optical character recognition (OCR) and automatic speech recognition (ASR) models, there is a need for tools that facilitate evaluation in a flexible and reproducible way. This paper presents Stringalign, a Python library designed to simplify the evaluation process for automatic transcription projects and facilitate transparent evaluation. Stringalign's tools to examine and visualise both the rate of errors and the types of errors a model makes, give insights into possible improvements and help inform model selection for a particular task. Widely used string comparison metrics, such as the character and word error rates (CER and WER), although useful, can be ambiguous due to varying definitions of what constitutes a character and a word. Stringalign addresses this challenge by ensuring all preprocessing (i.e. normalisation and tokenisation) is transparent and easily replicable, and by providing tools to move beyond summary statistics and analyse common model errors. Moreover, Stringalign adheres to FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) principles for research software while staying lightweight and easy to adapt into researchers existing workflows. In this paper, we discuss challenges with character and word level string comparisons and show through examples that where existing tools can yield opaque and sometimes confusing results, Stringalign provides an easy-to-use and unambiguous alternative.