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01.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-11

Catecholamine precursor modulation of human exploration: Evidence from a large gender-balanced sample

by Angela Mariele Brands, Kilian Knauth, David Mathar, Tim Roedder, Kerstin Lisner, Jan Peters The catecholamine precursor Tyrosine has been linked to improved cognitive performance, but investigations into decision-making and reinforcement learning processes known to be under catecholamine control are sparse. We examined the impact of a single dose of Tyrosine (2g) on reinforcement learning and exploration in a large (n = 63) gender-balanced sample in a within-subjects preregistered study. Reinforcement learning performance was significantly improved under Tyrosine. Based on previous work, we preregistered the hypotheses that Tyrosine would reduce directed exploration, response times, and physiological arousal. However, neither response times nor physiological arousal revealed the predicted reductions. Computational modelling using an established pre-registered reinforcement learning model revealed that the performance improvement under Tyrosine was due to an increase value-driven exploitation, without affecting directed exploration. Non-preregistered modelling analyses then revealed that accounting for higher-order perseveration substantially improved model fit, and substantiated the observation of increased value-driven exploitation under Tyrosine. Furthermore, it revealed reliable reductions in directed exploration and value-independent perseveration under Tyrosine. Tyrosine thus improved reinforcement learning performance by stabilizing choice patterns in the service of optimizing reward accumulation, modulating several computational mechanisms thought to be under catecholamine control.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

How Small Can 6G Reason? Scaling Tiny-to-Small Language Models for AI-Native Networks

arXiv:2603.02156v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Emerging 6G visions, reflected in ongoing standardization efforts within 3GPP, IETF, ETSI, ITU-T, and the O-RAN Alliance, increasingly characterize networks as AI-native systems in which high-level semantic reasoning layers operate above standardized control and data-plane functions. Although frontier-scale large language models (LLMs) such as Qwen2.5-7B and Olmo-3-7B demonstrate strong reasoning capability, their computational footprint limits deployment in latency-sensitive, edge-native infrastructures. This paper presents a systematic empirical study of the scaling behavior and deployment efficiency of compact language models for network-level semantic reasoning in AI-native 6G systems. Using 6G-Bench, a standardization-aligned benchmark comprising 30 decision-making tasks across five capability domains, we evaluate models ranging from 135M (SmolLM2-135M) to 7B parameters (Qwen2.5-7B), including mid-scale architectures such as Llama-3.2-1B, Granite-1B, and Qwen2.5-3B. Deterministic accuracy (pass@1) increases from 0.224 at 135M to 0.707 at 7B, but scaling gains are highly non-uniform. A pronounced stability transition occurs in the 1 to 1.5B range, where accuracy rises from 0.373 (Llama-3.2-1B) to 0.531 (Qwen2.5-1.5B) and the instability gap Delta_5 contracts from 0.356 to 0.138. Beyond 3B parameters, improvements diminish (+0.064 from 3B to 7B). Through single-query inference profiling and an Edge Score metric that normalizes accuracy by latency and memory footprint, we show that semantic reliability per unit edge resource does not scale monotonically with parameter count. Instead, mid-scale models (approximately 1.5 to 3B) achieve the most favorable balance between deterministic stability and computational efficiency, providing deployment-relevant guidance for AI-native 6G architectures. All scripts and results are publicly available at https://github.com/maferrag/6G-Bench

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

VitalAgent: A Tool-Augmented Agent for Reactive and Proactive Physiological Monitoring over Wearable Health Data

arXiv:2605.29483v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Wearable devices enable continuous monitoring of physiological signals such as ECG and PPG, but existing mHealth systems are largely limited to task-specific prediction pipelines or reactive question answering over static summaries. They lack the ability to support temporal reasoning, persistent physiological context, and proactive monitoring over long-term signal streams. We propose VitalAgent, a tool-augmented agentic framework for ECG/PPG-based mHealth that supports both reactive question answering and proactive monitoring. VitalAgent is built on a longitudinal physiological memory and a tool-augmented reasoning interface that enables dynamic computation over raw signals. We further introduce VitalBench, a longitudinal physiological monitoring benchmark dataset comprising 1,862 QA pairs for reactive question answering and 90.2 hours of continuous ECG/PPG recordings for proactive monitoring, covering cardiac, physical activity, and stress-related tasks. Experiments demonstrate that VitalAgent achieves over 25% improvement over prompt-based and ReAct baselines in reactive evaluation and supports proactive alert monitoring over long-term physiological signals, highlighting the importance of dynamic tool use and long-term physiological monitoring.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

LegalWorld: A Life-Cycle Interactive Environment for Legal Agents

Civil litigation is inherently a life-cycle process: what a lawyer drafts on day one constrains what unfolds at trial months later. Yet existing legal benchmarks evaluate isolated subtasks, and prior legal-agent simulators reinitialize each scenario from shared ground truth, leaving cross-stage causal dependencies unmodeled. We present LegalWorld, a life-cycle interactive environment that models Chinese civil litigation as a causally connected state chain of five stages (seven sub-scenarios), grounded in 75,309 paired Chinese civil judgments. We pair it with reusable infrastructure (local memory, global case memory, a Skill/Tool library) that keeps each dispute consistent across its full life cycle. Building on this environment, we construct LongJud-Bench to evaluate agent capability across all five connected stages. 18,992 ratings from 217 legal-background evaluators confirm that LegalWorld trajectories are procedurally faithful and role-consistent; and a capability-level cross-model evaluation reveals sharp divergences that aggregate scores cannot expose, with no single backbone leading across consultation, drafting, and courtroom advocacy. Detailed resources will be released publicly.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Agentic Knowledge Tracing: A Multi-Agent LLM Architecture for Stealth Assessment of Financial Literacy in Serious Games

arXiv:2606.25358v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Assessing financial literacy during gameplay without disrupting the learning experience remains a key challenge in serious games for education. We present the Agentic BKT pipeline, a multi-agent large language model architecture for stealth assessment of financial competencies from open-ended gameplay events. The pipeline processes events from a 2D platformer serious game aligned with the OECD/INFE financial literacy framework through four phases: (1) the game captures every player decision as a structured event log; (2) an LLM event classifier labels each action on a four-point rubric validated against three domain experts (Fleiss kappa = 0.624, substantial agreement); (3) four domain-specific agents specializing in risk mitigation, investing, spending, and credit management perform session-level reasoning over behavioral trajectories, feeding per-competency Bayesian Knowledge Tracing that estimates mastery within each domain; and (4) an expert judge agent synthesizes the domain-level estimates into an overall mastery score. Evaluated with 193 K-12 participants across 264 game sessions, the Agentic BKT pipeline yields mastery estimates significantly correlated with learning gain (r = 0.276, p = 0.0001) and post-test scores (r = 0.333, p < 0.0001) while showing no correlation with pre-test scores, providing both convergent and discriminant validity. The multi-agent approach approximately triples the predictive validity of a single-LLM baseline (r = 0.095, not significant) in this study, demonstrating that domain decomposition and session-level reasoning play a central role in capturing the multidimensional nature of financial literacy from gameplay

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Structure-aware Knowledge-guided Heterogeneous Mamba for Zygomaticomaxillary Suture Assessment

The Zygomaticomaxillary Suture is a key circummaxillary structure that connects the zygomatic bone and the maxilla, which serves as a primary site of resistance during maxillary advancement, and its maturation status directly influences the timing and efficacy of orthopedic interventions. However, accurate staging of ZMS maturation remains challenging due to subtle high-frequency transitions in suture lines and the global semantic ambiguity between adjacent stages. To address this, we present the first public ZMS dataset, comprising 3,790 ZMS images covering the entire age range from 4 to 24 years. Based on this dataset, we propose SKMamba, a Structure-aware and Knowledge-guided Mamba-based multi-modal framework for automated ZMS maturation assessment. SKMamba adopts a decoupled dual-path architecture that mimics the hierarchical diagnostic process used by experienced orthodontists. We first introduce an Implicit Edge Extractor (IEE), which leverages structural pre-training to reduce trabecular noise and accentuate sutural boundaries. Complementarily, a Cross-Modal Semantic Alignment (CSA) module is designed to incorporate anatomical descriptions from a large language model (LLM). This module helps align local morphological cues with global semantic descriptions while ensuring that objective morphological evidence remains the primary basis for decisions. Extensive experiments on our ZMS dataset demonstrate that SKMamba achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/galaxygxq1116/SKMamba.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Quantum repeater segment with free-space coupled co-trapped ions using telecom photon interference

arXiv:2606.12313v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A quantum repeater segment is a basic building block of a quantum repeater, generating buffered entanglement of quantum memories to connect quantum repeater cells. It also enables the connection between quantum computers. In the implementation we present here, photons emitted from two co-trapped free-space coupled $^{40}$Ca$^+$ ions are converted to the telecom-C band and interfered after transmission over 440$\,$m of optical fiber (220$\,$m per arm), where a photonic Bell measurement is performed to create entanglement between the memories. With this scheme we generate an entangled $\left|\Psi^+\right\rangle$ Bell state with $\ge 68(8)\,$% fidelity, highlighting trapped $^{40}$Ca$^+$ ions as a promising quantum repeater hardware platform.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Decoupled Object-Centric Video Understanding for Generating Robotic Manipulation Commands

Translating video demonstrations into executable robot commands remains challenging because existing methods often fail to identify which objects are functionally involved in the demonstrated action. As a result, they may generate commands that are linguistically plausible but operationally ambiguous. We propose an object-centric video understanding framework that decouples action recognition from object identification to generate precise, grammar-free manipulation commands. Our approach integrates Temporal Shift Modules (TSM) for efficient spatio-temporal action classification with a novel Object Selection algorithm that identifies task-relevant objects through trajectory-based role classification, blur detection, and overlap minimization. The selected objects are then processed by Vision-Language Models (VLMs) for robust category recognition and zero-shot generalization. Evaluated on a modified Something-Something V2 dataset, our method achieves 86.79\% action classification accuracy and BLEU-4 scores of 0.337 on standard objects and 0.261 on novel objects. These results improve over the strongest task-specific baseline by 80.2\% and 143.9\%, respectively. Larger gains are observed in METEOR and CIDEr, reaching 157.9\% and 171.7\% on novel objects. Across all semantic metrics, our approach consistently outperforms task-specific methods and remains competitive with, or surpasses, large general-purpose VLMs while retaining a modular, object-centric design.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Federated Foundation Language Model Post-Training Should Focus on Open-Source Models

arXiv:2505.23593v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Post-training of foundation language models has emerged as a promising research domain in federated learning (FL) with the goal to enable privacy-preserving model improvements and adaptations to user's downstream tasks. Recent advances in this area adopt centralized post-training approaches that build upon black-box foundation language models where there is no access to model weights and architecture details. Although the use of black-box models has been successful in centralized post-training, their blind replication in FL raises several concerns. Our opinion is that using black-box models in FL contradicts the core principles of federation such as data privacy and autonomy. In this paper, we critically analyze the usage of black-box models in federated post-training, and provide a detailed account of various aspects of openness and their implications for FL.

12.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Agon: An Autonomous Large-Scale Omnidisciplinary Research System Built on Prompt Economy

Large language models are making research production scalable, shifting the bottleneck from producing artifacts to judging claims. We present \textsc{Agon}, a research orchestrator that validates what can be checked inside the workflow and leaves the remaining judgments to human scientists. \textsc{Agon} is built on six design principles: Prompt Economy, Future-Facing, Minimal Prompts, OmniDisciplinary, Massive Parallelism, and Zero-Code. We ran \textsc{Agon} across domains for 444 iterations of Prompt Economy loops, using only small starting topics and no human-written experimental code. These deployments demonstrate scalability while exposing new classes of failure. We organize these failures into a taxonomy along severity, fixability, visibility, and capability locus. The taxonomy separates failures the loops can see and fix from those that require human judgment. Together, these results show that \textsc{Agon} is pushing research toward a new paradigm: machine scales, human steers.

13.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Therapeutic efficacy study on shoulder impingement syndrome in swimmers: a network meta-analysis

Shoulder impingement syndrome (SIS), including subacromial impingement and rotator cuff tendinitis, is commonly caused by repetitive swimming movements and associated shoulder joint dysfunction. Despite numerous available treatment options, no consensus exists on the most effective treatment option. Therefore, this systematic review and network meta-analysis aimed to investigate treatment methods for SIS in swimmers. Using a frequentist framework and Cochrane PICOS principles, we compared SIS treatments, constructed network evidence diagrams, and assessed heterogeneity. A total of 45 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis, and 42 contributed to the network meta-analysis, comprising 1752 participants, 9 treatment categories, and outcome measures. For pain outcomes, some adjunctive interventions combined with exercise showed favorable ranking probabilities, although several estimates were accompanied by wide confidence intervals. For shoulder range-of-motion outcomes, taping, acupuncture, manual therapy, and sport-specific training showed favorable effects in selected comparisons, particularly for external and internal rotation. According to surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) rankings, exercise combined with medium-frequency therapy ranked highly for pain reduction, whereas exercise combined with acupuncture or extracorporeal shock wave therapy ranked highly for shoulder flexion. Exercise combined with taping ranked highly for external rotation, and exercise combined with manual therapy ranked highly for internal rotation. However, the interpretation of ranking results should remain cautious because uncertainty and inconsistency were present in some comparisons. Exercise-based rehabilitation appears to remain central to the management of SIS in swimmers. Several adjunctive interventions showed favorable findings for selected outcomes, especially pain relief and shoulder rotational function. However, the available evidence was affected by heterogeneity, inconsistency, and imprecision across some treatment comparisons. More rigorously designed swimmer-specific randomized controlled trials are needed before firm treatment hierarchies can be established. Trial registration: The protocol for this systematic review is registered with PROSPERO (www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO; registration number: CRD42024498851). The first submission of PROSPERO was on January 15, 2024, and it was revised and updated on March 25, 2026.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

The Warrant Gap: Claim-Conditioned Re-scoring for Fact-Checking

Fact-checking systems built on LLMs achieve high verdict accuracy on standard benchmarks, yet routinely output Supports labels whose cited evidence does not license the claim. Structured decomposition is the natural way to inspect those warrants, but rigid extraction protocols strip the full-claim context that facets need. We introduce SIFT – claim-conditioned re-scoring of extracted evidence spans against the full claim – paired with WSP (Warranted Supports Proportion), an automatic NLI check that the cited warrant entails the claim. We evaluate on FEVER, SciFact, 5PILS, and DP across four open-source backbones. SIFT recovers accuracy on cells where naive decomposition costs up to 27.6 points, while raising WSP above direct prompting; WSP itself calibrates against human gold evidence at AUC 0.92 and precision 0.98.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

RAIGen: Rare Attribute Identification in Text-to-Image Generative Models

Text-to-image diffusion models achieve impressive generation quality but inherit and amplify training-data biases, skewing coverage of semantic attributes. Prior work addresses this in two ways. Closed-set approaches mitigate biases in predefined fairness categories (e.g., gender, race), assuming socially salient minority attributes are known a priori. Open-set approaches frame the task as bias identification, highlighting majority attributes that dominate outputs. Both overlook a complementary task: uncovering rare or minority features underrepresented in the data distribution (social, cultural, or stylistic) yet still encoded in model representations. We introduce RAIGen, the first framework, to our knowledge, for label-free rare-attribute discovery in diffusion models, requiring no predefined minority categories. RAIGen leverages Matryoshka Sparse Autoencoders and a novel minority metric combining neuron activation frequency with semantic distinctiveness to identify interpretable neurons whose top-activating images reveal underrepresented attributes. Experiments show RAIGen discovers attributes beyond fixed fairness categories in Stable Diffusion, scales to larger models such as SDXL, supports systematic auditing across architectures, and enables targeted amplification of rare attributes during generation. The project page is available at https://vssilpa.github.io/RAIGen_webpage/ .

17.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-25

Three non-Hermitian random matrix universality classes of complex edge statistics: Spacing ratios and distributions

arXiv:2603.28457v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The conjectured three generic local bulk statistics amongst all non-Hermitian random matrix symmetry classes have recently been extended to three generic local edge statistics. We study analytically and numerically complex spacing ratios and nearest-neighbour (NN) spacing distributions that characterise such local statistics. We choose the three simplest representatives of these universality classes, given by the Gaussian ensembles of complex Ginibre, complex symmetric and complex self-dual matrices, denoted by class A, AI$^\dag$ and AII$^\dag$. In the first part, we analytically study the complex spacing ratio in class A, at finite matrix size $N$. Introducing a conditional point process, we simplify existing expressions and show why an uncontrolled approximation introduced earlier converges well in the large-$N$ limit in the bulk. When specifying to the elliptic Ginibre ensemble, we present a parameter-dependent $N=3$ surmise for the complex spacing ratio, interpolating to that of the Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE), where such a surmise is very accurate. In the second numerical part, we compare complex spacing ratios, its moments, and NN spacing distributions for all three ensembles with that of uncorrelated points, the two-dimensional (2D) Poisson process, both in the bulk and at the edge. The varying degree of repulsion within these different edge universality classes can be well understood in terms of an effective 2D Coulomb gas description, at different values of inverse temperature $\beta$. We find indications that the complex spacing ratio does not fully unfold the local statistics at the edge. Finally we verify that for small argument, in all three symmetry classes the NN spacing distributions in the bulk and at the edge are consistent with the universal cubic repulsion.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Beyond Predefined Schemas: TRACE-KG for Context-Enriched Knowledge Graph Generation

arXiv:2604.03496v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Knowledge graph generation typically relies either on predefined ontologies or on schema-free extraction. Ontology-driven pipelines enforce consistent typing but require costly schema design and maintenance, whereas schema-free methods often produce fragmented graphs with weak global organization, especially in long technical documents with dense, context-dependent information. We propose TRACE-KG (Text-dRiven schemA for Context-Enriched Knowledge Graphs), a framework that jointly constructs a context-enriched knowledge graph and an induced schema without assuming a predefined ontology. TRACE-KG captures conditional relations through structured qualifiers and organizes entities and relations using a data-driven schema that serves as a reusable semantic scaffold while preserving full traceability to the source evidence. Experiments show that TRACE-KG produces structurally coherent, traceable knowledge graphs and offers a practical alternative to both ontology-driven and schema-free construction pipelines.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Exposure Bias as Epistemic Underidentification in Recursive Forecasting

arXiv:2606.12990v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recursive multi-step forecasting is usually framed as distribution shift: models are trained on observed histories but deployed on their own predictions. We show this framing is incomplete by proving that, under partial observability or state truncation, recursive rollout is also an epistemic underidentification problem. Even with deterministic latent dynamics, one-step Bayes supervision identifies behavior only on observed contexts and need not identify the deployed recursive predictor once rollout queries self-generated induced states whose correct local targets are not determined by numeric state alone. We formalize this with induced states $Z$ and provenance variables $P$, and derive a decomposition of induced-state error into teacher-forcing/rollout mismatch, representation–class approximation, and provenance information gaps. Empirically, we show that rollout enters a distinct induced-state regime, that fixed induced states define a distinct local corrective task, and that closed-loop gains arise not only from local adaptation but also from changing the induced states visited during rollout. Using a simple binary provenance encoding, provenance-aware correction can further improve performance, though gains are conditional rather than uniform. These results recast exposure bias as reasoning under self-induced epistemic uncertainty.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Standardized Methods and Recommendations for Green Federated Learning

arXiv:2602.00343v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative model training over privacy-sensitive, distributed data, but its environmental impact is difficult to compare across studies due to inconsistent measurement boundaries and heterogeneous reporting. We present a practical carbon-accounting methodology for FL CO2e tracking using NVIDIA NVFlare and CodeCarbon for explicit, phase-aware tasks (initialization, per-round training, evaluation, and idle/coordination). To capture non-compute effects, we additionally estimate communication emissions from transmitted model-update sizes under a network-configurable energy model. We validate the proposed approach on two representative workloads: CIFAR-10 image classification and retinal optic disk segmentation. In CIFAR-10, controlled client-efficiency scenarios show that system-level slowdowns and coordination effects can contribute meaningfully to carbon footprint under an otherwise fixed FL protocol, increasing total CO2e by 8.34x (medium) and 21.73x (low) relative to the high-efficiency baseline. In retinal segmentation, swapping GPU tiers (H100 vs.\ V100) yields a consistent 1.7x runtime gap (290 vs. 503 minutes) while producing non-uniform changes in total energy and CO2e across sites, underscoring the need for per-site and per-round reporting. Overall, our results support a standardized carbon accounting method that acts as a prerequisite for reproducible 'green' FL evaluation. Our code is available at https://github.com/Pediatric-Accelerated-Intelligence-Lab/carbon_footprint.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

SL-S4Wave: Self-Supervised Learning of Physiological Waveforms with Structured State Space Models

arXiv:2606.19888v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modeling long-sequence medical time series data, such as electrocardiograms (ECG), poses significant challenges due to high sampling rates, multichannel signal complexity, inherent noise, and limited labeled data. While recent self-supervised learning (SSL) methods, based on various encoder architectures such as convolutional neural networks, have been proposed to learn representations from unlabeled data, they often fall short in capturing long-range dependencies and noise-invariant features. Structured state space models (S4) excel at long-sequence modeling, but existing S4 architectures fail to capture the unique characteristics of multichannel physiological waveforms. In this work, we propose SL-S4Wave, a self-supervised learning framework that combines contrastive learning with a tailored encoder built on structured state space models. The encoder incorporates multi-layer global convolution using multiscale subkernels, enabling the capture of both fine-grained local patterns and long-range temporal dependencies in noisy, high-resolution multichannel waveforms. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that SL-S4Wave (1) consistently outperforms state-of-the-art supervised and self-supervised baselines in a challenging arrhythmia detection task, (2) achieves high performance with significantly fewer labeled examples, showcasing strong label efficiency, and (3) maintains robust performance on long waveform segments, highlighting its capacity to model complex temporal dynamics in long sequences that most existing approaches fail to efficiently model, and (4) transfers effectively to unseen arrhythmia types, underscoring its robust cross-domain generalization. We additionally evaluate SL-S4Wave on multiple EEG tasks, achieving superior performance over strong baselines, demonstrating generalizability of our approach beyond cardiac waveforms.

22.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Neural Particle Automata: Learning Self-Organizing Particle Dynamics

We introduce Neural Particle Automata (NPA), a Lagrangian generalization of Neural Cellular Automata (NCA) from static lattices to dynamic particle systems. Unlike classical Eulerian NCA where cells are pinned to pixels or voxels, NPA model each cell as a particle with a continuous position and internal state, both updated by a shared, learnable neural rule. This particle-based formulation yields clear individuation of cells, allows heterogeneous dynamics, and concentrates computation only on regions where activity is present. At the same time, particle systems pose challenges: neighborhoods are dynamic, and a naive implementation of local interactions scale quadratically with the number of particles. We address these challenges by replacing grid-based neighborhood perception with differentiable Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) operators backed by memory-efficient, CUDA-accelerated kernels, enabling scalable end-to-end training. Across tasks including morphogenesis, point-cloud classification, and particle-based texture synthesis, we show that NPA retain key NCA behaviors such as robustness and self-regeneration, while enabling new behaviors specific to particle systems. Together, these results position NPA as a compact neural model for learning self-organizing particle dynamics.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Which Directions Matter? Sparse Design for Affine Robust Optimization

arXiv:2606.14648v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Robust machine learning and optimization rely on the uncertainty model choice. We investigate which uncertainty directions a model must cover when defined by a finite dictionary and a budget constraint. Selecting a subset forms an atomic uncertainty set with a closed form support function, yielding tractable robust programs for affine objectives. We propose a data driven selection rule based on a coverage objective over evaluation directions, including gradients, adversarial perturbations, or shifts observed on held out data. We prove this objective is monotone and submodular, supporting a greedy method with a $(1-1/e)$ approximation guarantee and a matching hardness barrier. We also provide a certificate bounding the loss from the selected subset and a radius calibration rule with out of sample control.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Shrinkage priors for Bayesian Substitute Confounders

arXiv:2606.18535v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-cause observational studies contain information about unmeasured confounding through the dependence structure among causes. However, literal imputation of the unobserved confounder is often more complex than learning a lower-dimensional substitute score that preserves the shared assignment variation needed for stable causal adjustment. The deconfounder (Wang and Blei, 2019) and related substitute confounder methods exploit this idea, but flexible assignment models can fit the joint distribution of the causes while producing scores that over-encode the treatment vector, collapse overlap, or capture single-cause variation. We develop a Bayesian factor assignment framework for learning sparse substitute confounders that retain coarse multi-cause dependence with shrinkage priors. The theory is stated at the level of posterior concentration, factor score contraction, and overlap-preserving assignment geometry and therefore does not rely on a particular shrinkage prior. Under these conditions, the proposed regression-adjusted estimators are consistent for mean potential outcomes when the corresponding latent variable identification assumptions hold. Shrinkage priors provide a natural tool for latent structural learning: they favour low-dimensional factors supported by multiple causes, discourage effectively single-cause factors, and induce an ordering of the latent factors through progressive shrinkage. Synthetic experiments illustrate the roles of signal strength, outcome validity, and geometry-aware regularization. In an Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) baseline analysis, sparse substitute scores recover much of the adjustment obtained by directly conditioning on invasive cerebrospinal-fluid biomarkers, while collapse diagnostics identify when fitted factors reduce to individual observed measurements.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Representing Time Series as Structured Programs for LLM Reasoning

arXiv:2606.12481v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong reasoning and instruction-following capabilities, making them potentially powerful tools for time-series analysis. However, time series lie outside their native textual modality, raising a fundamental question: how should time series be represented so that LLMs can reason about them effectively? Existing work typically serializes raw numerical sequences or fine-tunes pre-trained LLMs on time-series data. These approaches place the burden of extracting temporal structure directly on the LLM, creating a modality mismatch that often degrades performance on long sequences and introduces substantial computational overhead. In this work, we introduce Time-Series-to-Structured-Program representation (T2SP), a deterministic, training-free method that represents a time series as a structured symbolic program. T2SP decomposes time series into trends, periods, and salient events, expressing them in a program-friendly format aligned with the textual and code-like modalities on which LLMs are natively trained. By shifting temporal-structure extraction from the model to the representation itself, T2SP enables off-the-shelf LLMs to leverage their existing reasoning capabilities for time-series understanding. We evaluate T2SP on three reasoning tasks – editing, captioning, and question answering – where it consistently improves performance, reduces reasoning time, and lowers failure rates compared with raw-string representations. Our results demonstrate that T2SP provides an effective interface between time series and LLMs.