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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

EMAgnet: Parameter-Space EMA Regularization for Policy Gradient Self-Play in Large Games

作者:
Tristan Maidment↗JB Lanier↗Chase McDonald↗Nathan Tsang↗Eugene Vinitsky↗Roy Fox↗Albert Wang↗Wesley N. Kerr↗

arXiv:2606.23995v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent work has established that regularized policy gradient methods such as PPO, when used in self-play, can match or exceed specialized game-theoretic algorithms for solving two-player zero-sum imperfect-information games. The uniform distribution has emerged as a strong policy regularization target for this purpose, but it regularizes equally toward all actions regardless of their viability. We introduce EMAgnet, which instead regularizes toward an exponential moving average (EMA) of the last-iterate policy's parameters, providing an adaptive regularization target that evolves with the agent's improving strategy. We evaluate EMAgnet on both standard two-player zero-sum benchmarks and modified benchmarks with exploration challenges and large numbers of strictly dominated strategies. Relative to PPO self-play with uniform-magnet regularization under both linear and power-law annealing schedules, EMAgnet achieves lower exploitability in the majority of tested environments, with consistent performance gains across games containing strictly dominated strategies.

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02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Enhancing Graph Neural Networks Using Proximity Graphs for Dust Source Emission Forecasting

作者:
Maryam Sanisales↗Zahed Rahmati↗Ali Darvishi Boloorani↗Ali Vefghi↗

arXiv:2606.19825v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate prediction of dust source emissions is critical for mitigating the significant environmental and health hazards posed by dust storms. Traditional forecasting methods often struggle to capture the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of these phenomena. In this paper, we demonstrate that proximity graphs enable Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to effectively model the intricate spatial and temporal relationships between data points. Specifically, we use proximity graphs–such as Delaunay triangulation, Gabriel graph, k-Nearest Neighbor graph, and Yao graph–as the input for GNNs (including GraphSAGE, Graph Convolutional Networks, and Graph Attention Networks) to perform message passing. Our approach highlights the effectiveness of integrating proximity graphs with GNNs for robust and accurate dust source forecasting. To emphasize the importance of proximity graph representations, we compare our method against GNNs using random graphs for message passing. The results show that GNNs with proximity graphs significantly outperform those with random graphs and are also far superior to Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model in dust source emission forecasting.

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04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Energy-Efficient On-Device RAG on a Mobile NPU: System Design and Benchmark on Snapdragon X Elite

作者:
Zhiyuan Cheng↗Longying Lai↗

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipelines are compute-intensive, combining embedding, retrieval, reranking, and large language model (LLM) generation. Running them entirely on-device benefits privacy, latency, and offline use, but the energy cost of CPU inference is a major barrier. We present what is, to our knowledge, the first end-to-end RAG pipeline that runs all neural stages – embedding, reranking, and LLM generation – on the Qualcomm Hexagon NPU of the Snapdragon X Elite. Profiling on a Dell XPS 13 laptop, we compare NPU-accelerated RAG against CPU and OpenCL/Adreno GPU baselines on indexing and query workloads. On indexing, the NPU achieves 9.1x higher embedding throughput and 12.3x less system energy. On a 120-query Wikipedia-passage benchmark, it delivers 18.1x faster LLM prefilling, 4.0x lower end-to-end query latency, and 4.0x less system energy than the CPU baseline; the same workload on the integrated GPU is 1.7x slower than CPU and uses 6.5x more energy than the NPU. A GPT-4.1 LLM-as-judge evaluation finds NPU answer quality on par with CPU and GPU within evaluator noise (mean 9.32 vs. 8.95 vs. 9.03 on a 1-10 rubric), with 86.7% of queries scoring identically across all three backends. On the Snapdragon X Elite / Hexagon class of laptop SoC, the NPU thus enables practical, energy-efficient on-device RAG without quality regression – a sustainable path toward green edge intelligence that we expect to generalize to comparable mobile NPUs (Apple Neural Engine, Intel NPU, MediaTek APU) as their software stacks mature.

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05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Variance Reduction for Non-Log-Concave Sampling with Applications to Inverse Problems

作者:
M. Berk Sahin↗Ahmet Ege Tanriverdi↗Behzad Sharif↗Abolfazl Hashemi↗

arXiv:2606.16257v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sampling from high-dimensional, non-log-concave distributions with unnormalized densities is a fundamental challenge in machine learning, particularly when the exact gradient of the potential is unavailable and must be approximated via stochastic gradients that exhibit high variance under a fixed budget of gradient computations per iteration. Although variance reduction techniques such as SGD with momentum, STORM, and PAGE have demonstrated improved convergence properties in non-convex optimization, their implications for sampling from non-log-concave distributions remain largely unexplored. In this work, we develop the first unified analysis of these estimators for sampling from non-log-concave distributions. We establish improved non-asymptotic convergence rates in $\varepsilon$-relative Fisher information and, under a Poincaré inequality assumption, in squared total variation distance, and further prove weak convergence to the target distribution. We extend our analysis to solving inverse problems with score-based generative priors. We empirically validate our theory and demonstrate that, under a fixed gradient computations per iteration, variance-reduction techniques consistently improve sample quality in two standard imaging applications.

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06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints

作者:
Daniel Fraiman↗Ricardo Fraiman↗

arXiv:2605.03289v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Detecting observations from a minority class under severe class imbalance is a central challenge in applications such as fraud detection, medical screening, and industrial quality control. In these settings, each positive prediction triggers a costly follow-up action, an MRI scan, a transaction audit, whose execution is subject to real operational constraints. This paper proposes a formal classification framework under capacity constraints: given a user-defined bound limit $b$ on the proportion of observations that can be labeled as belonging to the minority class, the goal is to find the classifier that maximizes sensitivity on that class. We characterize the optimal classifier under this constraint and establish its equivalence with the classical Bayes classifier under a reweighting of the prior probabilities. We also introduce a capacity-adjusted performance metric $M$ that accounts for the effective detection rate when the capacity constraint is binding. The framework is implemented on top of standard learning methods, k-NN, SVM, random forests, and neural networks, and statistical consistency is established for each. We further show that these methods reduce to post-hoc thresholding when no hyperparameters are oriented toward the capacity-constrained objective, and introduce a capacity-aware support vector machine that exploits the constraint during training and achieves the strongest empirical performance. Experiments on the Taiwanese credit card default dataset confirm that capacity-constrained classifiers substantially outperform both classical approaches and SMOTE under high imbalance regimes. The framework extends naturally to multiclass settings and online environments.

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07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Keep Policy Gradient in Charge: Sibling-Guided Credit Distillation for Long-Horizon Tool-Use Agents

作者:
Tianyu Ding↗Jianhong Xin↗Juan Pablo De la Cruz Weinstein↗

Long-horizon tool-use reinforcement learning can learn from outcome verification, but its trajectory-level advantage is broadcast across many reasoning, API, and answer tokens. Self-distillation promises a denser signal by reusing a policy's own rollouts or a privileged teacher. We show, however, that direct token-level self-distillation can silently destroy tool use: it rehearses teacher behavior without knowing which actions the verifier rewards, so useful skills and harmful shortcuts are amplified together. We introduce Sibling-Guided Credit Distillation (SGCD), which uses distillation for credit assignment rather than as a competing actor loss. Dynamic sampling produces mixed successful and failed sibling rollouts; an external LLM summarizes their contrast into a training-only stepwise credit reference; dense teacher/student divergence drives credit reassignment; and bounded detached credit weights reshape GRPO token advantages. The deployed student sees no external LLM, sibling evidence, or oracle. Across AppWorld and $\tau^3$-airline, SGCD improves over matched GRPO comparators: AppWorld TGC $42.9 \to 45.6$ on test_normal and $24.7 \to 27.0$ on test_challenge, and $\tau^3$-airline pass@1 $0.583 \to 0.602$.

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08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Beyond Nearest Neighbor Interpolation in Data Augmentation

作者:
Olivier Rukundo↗

Avoiding the risk of undefined categorical labels using nearest neighbor interpolation overlooks the risk of exacerbating pixel level annotation errors in augmented training data. Additionally, the inherent low pass filtering effects of interpolation algorithms exacerbate the risk of degrading high frequency structural details within annotated regions of interest. To avoid these risks, the author modified convolutional neural networks data transformation functions by incorporating a modified geometric transformation function, removing reliance on nearest neighbor interpolation, and integrating a mean-based class filtering mechanism to handle undefined categorical labels with alternative interpolation algorithms. The author also implemented an offline data augmentation pipeline to generate interpolation specific augmented training data, enabling quantitative assessment of interpolation specific low pass filtering effects on augmented training data. Experimental evaluation on three medical image segmentation datasets and the XBAT+ datasets demonstrated performance gains across multiple quantitative metrics.

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09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Multiscale Hypersonic Boundary Layer Reconstruction via Spectral Binning and Subdomain-wise Conditional Diffusion

作者:
Hojin Kim↗Dibyajyoti Chakraborty↗Takahiko Toki↗Carlo Scalo↗Romit Maulik↗

arXiv:2606.15023v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a multiscale probabilistic reconstruction framework for hypersonic Couette flow, where near-wall states are inferred from limited top-wall observations using conditional diffusion model. The boundary layer is divided into overlapping wall-normal subdomains, and a single height- and Mach-conditioned Elucidating Diffusion Model (EDM) is trained jointly for M=6,7,8 to sample velocity, density, pressure, and temperature fields conditioned on a top-wall boundary slice. A soft overlap inpainting strategy assembles subdomain predictions into full-volume reconstructions while maintaining inter-subdomain continuity and small-scale variability. To improve the spectral fidelity of the generated fields, we introduce a novel bounded binned spectral power (BSP) loss that preserves high-wavenumber content while remaining numerically stable across the diffusion noise schedule. Validation against direct numerical simulation data shows that the model recovers instantaneous structures, spectra, statistical profiles, correlations, and wall quantities across all training Mach numbers, while providing spatially structured uncertainty estimates. The reconstructed Mach-conditioned profiles also collapse under the Trettel-Larsson transformation, indicating consistency with compressibility scaling. These results establish the domain decomposed conditional diffusion model with a bounded binned spectral loss as an effective probabilistic surrogate for near-wall reconstruction in hypersonic wall-bounded turbulence.

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10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Conformal calibration and look-elsewhere effect in anomaly detection for new-physics searches

作者:
Jack Y. Araz↗Michael Spannowsky↗

arXiv:2606.13780v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine-learned anomaly detection is reshaping searches for new physics, but it has outrun the statistics used to interpret it. A raw anomaly score has no calibrated meaning, a model that scans many regions inflates the look-elsewhere effect, and the asymptotic significances the field relies on are blind to the background mismodelling that anomaly detectors are especially prone to. We propose a calibration layer, built on conformal prediction, that turns any anomaly score into a defensible significance with distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees. Conformal prediction converts scores into valid local p-values, weighted and Mondrian variants repair the sideband-to-signal-region exchangeability failures that resonant searches suffer, and a Gross-Vitells step carries the result through to a look-elsewhere-aware global significance. The layer does two things at once. It exposes miscalibration that the standard pipeline cannot see, and it corrects it without retraining the detector. On public LHC Olympics data, a classifier develops a substructure-mass correlation that makes sideband-calibrated background p-values anti-conservative. Taken at face value, this manufactures a $\sim 46\sigma$ excess from background sculpting alone, which the label-free weighted correction removes, restoring an honest null. When run as a blind wide-mass bump hunt, the standard asymptotic and unweighted procedures fabricate $\gtrsim10\sigma$ excesses and $\approx5\sigma$ excesses even in signal-free windows, while the conformal layer raises no false alarms and its global false-positive rate is verified on background-only pseudoexperiments. The result is an auditable, detector-agnostic path from an uncalibrated score to a trials-factor-aware significance, ready to be folded into experimental anomaly searches.

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11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Evaluating AGENTS.md: Are Repository-Level Context Files Helpful for Coding Agents?

作者:
Thibaud Gloaguen↗Niels M\"undler↗Mark M\"uller↗Veselin Raychev↗Martin Vechev↗

arXiv:2602.11988v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A widespread practice in software development is to tailor coding agents to repositories using context files, such as AGENTS.md. Although this practice is strongly encouraged by agent developers, there is currently no rigorous investigation into whether such context files are actually effective for real-world tasks. In this work, we study this question and evaluate coding agents' task completion performance in two complementary settings: established SWE-bench tasks from popular repositories, with LLM-generated context files, and a novel collection of issues from repositories containing developer-committed context files. Surprisingly, we find that providing context files does not generally improve task success rates, while increasing inference cost by over 20% on average. This observation holds across different LLMs, coding agents, and for both LLM-generated and developer-committed context files. Specifically, we find that while instructions in the context files are well followed by coding agents, repository overviews, although popular and recommended by model providers, are not helpful. We conclude that while context files are useful for specifying non-standard coding practices, any attempts to improve performance should be rigorously evaluated before deployment.

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12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Cavity-enhanced superconducting response in an underdoped cuprate

作者:
Angela Montanaro↗Vadim Plastovets↗Nitesh Khatiwada↗Jacopo Fiore↗Giacomo Jarc↗Abdullah Alabbadi↗Antonio Mastropasqua↗Enrico Maria Rigoni↗Shahla Y. Mathengattil↗Simone Dal Zilio↗Francesca Fassioli Olsen↗Fabio Novelli↗…

arXiv:2606.18084v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Superconductors carry electrical current without resistance when paired electrons condense into a coherent macroscopic quantum state. In underdoped cuprates, evidence suggests that pairing-related correlations and superconducting fluctuations can survive above the temperature at which global coherence is lost, pointing to phase fluctuations as a key limitation on superconductivity in this regime. Motivated by recent demonstrations of cavity-modified collective states in quantum materials, we investigate whether superconducting coherence can be stabilized by engineering the electromagnetic environment of the superconductor. We study an underdoped YBa$_2$Cu$_3$O$_{7-\delta}$ thin film in a tunable terahertz cavity formed with a semi-transparent gold mirror. From temperature-dependent terahertz transmission measurements, we find that the cavity enhances the superconducting response below the critical temperature, with an increase of the inferred superfluid weight. The effect becomes more pronounced at smaller cavity lengths and is accompanied by an upward shift of the superconducting onset temperature. Calculations based on a cavity-coupled model for phase-fluctuating superconductors capture these trends and support an interpretation in terms of cavity-enhanced phase stiffness. These results showcase the potential of cavity engineering for designing emergent functionalities in correlated systems.

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13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Gradient-based inverse lithography for EUV masks via the waveguide method and a physics-informed neural operator

作者:
Vasiliy A. Es'kin↗Egor V. Ivanov↗

arXiv:2606.25753v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Gradient-based inverse lithography technology~(ILT) for extreme ultraviolet~(EUV) masks is presented. A novel framework treats the differentiable waveguide method and the recently proposed waveguide neural operator~(WGNO) as end-to-end physics engines, recovering the permittivity of the absorber of the mask through automatic differentiation of the full forward diffraction model. Numerical experiments on realistic 2D and 3D absorbers of the mask (TaBN, La, U) at $\lambda{=}11.2$~nm show that the considered ILT methods make it possible to obtain a mask structure that achieves the desired field on the wafer.

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14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

A Water Efficiency Dataset for African Data Centers

作者:
Noah Shumba↗Opelo Tshekiso↗Pengfei Li↗Giulia Fanti↗Shaolei Ren↗

arXiv:2412.03716v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) computing and data centers consume large amounts of freshwater, both directly for cooling and indirectly for electricity generation. While most attention has been paid to developed countries such as the U.S., this paper presents the first-of-its-kind dataset that combines nation-level weather and electricity generation data to estimate water usage effectiveness for data centers in 41 African countries across five different climate regions. We also use our dataset to evaluate and estimate the water consumption of inference on two large language models (i.e., Llama-3-70B and GPT-4) in 11 selected African countries. Our estimates suggest that writing a 10-page report using Llama-3-70B could consume as much as {0.66 liters} of water, while the water consumption by GPT-4 for the same task may go up to about {59 liters}. For writing a medium-length email of 120-200 words, Llama-3-70B and GPT-4 could consume about {0.13 liters} and {2.9 liters} of water, respectively. All the numbers for generative model inference tasks are based on public information available in 2024, when we initially prepared the analysis. Since then, AI inference systems have improved substantially. For example, recent disclosures suggest that energy efficiency improved by more than 30x between May 2024 and May 2025. Accordingly, our 2024 estimates should be interpreted as historical reference values rather than as representative of current performance. Interestingly, given the same AI model, 9 of the 11 selected African countries consume less water than the global average, mainly because of lower water intensities for electricity generation.

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15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

Dual Agreement Consistency Learning for Semi-Supervised Fetal Ultrasound Segmentation

作者:
Fangyijie Wang↗Gu\'enol\'e Silvestre↗Ziyang Wang↗Kathleen M. Curran↗

Maternal-fetal US is the primary imaging modality for monitoring fetal development, yet accurate automated segmentation remains challenging due to the scarcity of pixel-level annotations. To address this issue, we propose DACL, a semi-supervised framework for robust fetal US image segmentation. DACL jointly trains a deployment-oriented lightweight convolutional network (1.47\thinsp\mathrm{M} parameters) and a Transformer-based network, leveraging labeled data for supervised learning and unlabeled data via CPS. To enhance prediction stability, we introduce a dual-agreement consistency loss that couples pixel-wise probabilistic divergence with entropy-guided confidence alignment. Unlike conventional CPS methods that enforce agreement only at the prediction level, DACL explicitly regularizes both distributional alignment and uncertainty, thereby suppressing unreliable pseudo-labels and enabling stable cross-architecture pseudo-label learning under extreme annotation scarcity. Furthermore, an interpolation-based consistency strategy using mixup is applied to unlabeled samples to enhance robustness. Under 5% labeled data, DACL improves Dice by up to 2.77% and reduces HD95 by up to 14.69 mm compared with the strongest recent semi-supervised methods, demonstrating significant improvements in boundary accuracy on both fetal head and abdomen datasets. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of agreement-based consistency learning for annotation-efficient fetal US segmentation. Our code is on GitHub.

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16.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Durability and Seasonal Variation in the Effectiveness of Nirsevimab over Three Seasons in Connecticut

作者:
Xu↗Aparicio-Llorente↗Warren↗Kennedy-Shaffer↗Pitzer↗V. E↗Weinberger↗D. M↗Oliveira↗C. R↗PROVE-ID Group Authors↗

Background Nirsevimab has been widely administered in the United States since 2023 to protect infants and young children from severe disease caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Although early post-licensure studies have shown high effectiveness against medically attended RSV infection, uncertainty remains about the durability of protection, effectiveness beyond the first RSV season, and the extent to which changing RSV seasonality influences real-world effectiveness. Objective To estimate the effectiveness of nirsevimab against medically attended RSV infection across three consecutive RSV seasons and to examine how effectiveness varies by season and time since immunization. Methods We conducted a test-negative case-control study utilizing electronic health records of infants and young children tested for RSV by polymerase chain reaction in outpatient and inpatient settings within the Yale New Haven Health System between October 1, 2023, and March 1, 2026. Effectiveness of nirsevimab was estimated using multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for age, weekly RSV activity, pre-existing risk factors, and other potential confounders. Variation in effectiveness was examined by season, encounter setting, and time since immunization up to 24 months. Results Overall, 17,755 infants and young children were tested for RSV infection, of whom 2,388 (13.4%) were cases and 15,367 (86.6%) were controls. The overall effectiveness of nirsevimab was 67.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 59.8, 73.3%) against all medically-attended RSV infections, 60.2% (95% CI: 49.6, 68.5%) against RSV-associated outpatient visits, and 88.9% (95% CI: 82.3, 93.0%) against RSV-associated hospitalization. Effectiveness against medically attended RSV infection declined across seasons, from 76.7% (95% CI: 60.5, 86.3%) in 2023/24 to 54.4% (95% CI: 33.0, 68.9%) in 2025/26. Lower season-specific effectiveness in later seasons corresponded with progressively delayed RSV activity over. Protection against RSV-associated hospitalization declined with increasing time since immunization, from 92.5% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 85.9, 96.4%) at 1 month, to 77.2% (95% CrI: 60.4, 87.6%) at 6 months, and 39.9% (95% CrI: 2.4, 63.3%) at 12 months post-immunization, after which effectiveness plateaued. Conclusions Nirsevimab remained effective against RSV-associated hospitalization through 6 to 12 months after immunization. Delayed RSV activity was associated with lower effectiveness, highlighting the importance of aligning administration with local RSV circulation.

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17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

WeaveLA: Event Driven Cross-Subtask Latent Memory Weaving for Repetitive Robot Manipulation

作者:
Shoujing Zhu↗Zhenyang Liu↗Fungmiu Wang↗Jiafeng Wang↗Bo Yue↗Guiliang Liu↗Simo Wu↗Xiangyang Xue↗Taiping Zeng↗

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policies have achieved remarkable single-step manipulation, yet they remain brittle precisely where each stage depends on what was just completed. The core issue is structural: short-window VLAs lack an explicit channel for rouxting information across sub-task boundaries, and existing memory-augmented variants either write at every frame, retrieve from demonstration-time stages, or fire at sub-goal events without performing an explicit sub-task-to-sub-task hand-off into the action expert. We identify the sub-goal completion event as the natural temporal unit for cross-subtask memory hand-off, and present WeaveLA (Weave Latent memory for Vision-Language-Action policies), a cross-subtask memory interface that, on top of a frozen VLA backbone, compresses each completed segment into latent tokens via query-driven attention pooling and routes them directly into the action-generation path of the next sub-task. This event-triggered, action-side design preserves the base policy's short-window interface while adding a lightweight cross-subtask channel. Through stratified evaluation on RoboMME with a $\pi_{0.5}$ backbone, WeaveLA's gains land exactly where the channel is needed: on the hardest repetition slice (SwingXtimes, $N{=}3$), success rises from $0\%$ to $47.8\%$, while single-execution episodes remain unchanged. Per-episode paired analysis confirms the gains are confined to tasks whose causal structure requires cross-subtask information.

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18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Kareus: Joint Reduction of Dynamic and Static Energy in Large Model Training

作者:
Ruofan Wu↗Jae-Won Chung↗Mosharaf Chowdhury↗

arXiv:2601.17654v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The computing demand of AI is growing at an unprecedented rate, but energy supply is not keeping pace. As a result, energy has become an expensive and contended resource that requires explicit management and optimization. Although recent works have made significant progress in large model training optimization, they focus on optimizing either dynamic or static energy consumption. We find that fine-grained kernel scheduling and frequency scaling jointly and interdependently impact both dynamic and static energy consumption. Based on this finding, we design Kareus, a training system that pushes the time-energy tradeoff frontier by optimizing both aspects. Kareus decomposes the intractable joint optimization problem into local, partition-based subproblems. It then uses a multi-pass multi-objective optimization algorithm to find execution schedules that push the time-energy tradeoff frontier. Compared to the state of the art, Kareus reduces training energy by up to 28.3% at the same training time, or reduces training time by up to 27.5% at the same energy consumption.

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19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Hidden Anchors in Multi-Agent LLM Deliberation

作者:
Apurba Pokharel↗Ram Dantu↗

arXiv:2606.19494v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-agent LLM deliberation, where agents exchange and revise answers over several rounds, is increasingly used to improve reasoning and accuracy, yet how and why it works is rarely modelled. Such deliberation mirrors how humans reach decisions. As social animals we are pulled both by the group, the herd effect that classical opinion-dynamics models such as DeGroot and Friedkin–Johnsen capture, and by our own internal belief, which they do not. We model multi-agent deliberation as a closed-loop dynamical system in which each agent carries a hidden internal belief, its anchor, that continually pulls its opinion regardless of its neighbours. We show this anchor can be recovered from the deliberation alone, and that it explains a behaviour classical consensus rules forbid: an agent's confidence in the correct answer can climb past where any agent started, escaping the space (convexhull) formed by the initial beliefs. Checking whether the recovered anchor also predicts held-out runs (generalizes) gives a simple test for when a model is truly driven bysuch an anchor. Across three open-weight model families this is a spectrum, not all-or-nothing. All anchors' influence are about equally strongly, but they differ in where the anchor sits, and only when it sits far from the initial opinions does deliberation escape the hull and need the full closed-loop model.

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20.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-25

Haagerup property and group-invariant percolation

作者:
Chiranjib Mukherjee↗Konstantin Recke↗

arXiv:2303.17429v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Let $\mathcal G$ be the Cayley graph of a finitely generated, infinite group $\Gamma$. We show that $\Gamma$ has the Haagerup property if and only if for every $\alpha\alpha\mathrm{deg}_{\mathcal G}(g)$ for every vertex $g$ and with the two-point function $\tau(g,h)=\mathbb P\big[g\leftrightarrow h\big]$ vanishing as $d(g,h)\to\infty$. On the other hand, we show that $\Gamma$ has Kazhdan's property (T) if and only if there exists a threshold $\alpha^*\alpha^*\mathrm{deg}(o)$ implies that the two-point function is uniformly bounded away from zero. These results in particular answer questions raised by Lyons (J. Math. Phys. 41. 1099-1126 (2000)) about characterizations of properties of groups beyond amenability through group-invariant percolations. The method of proof is new and is based on a construction of percolations with suitable dependence structures built from invariant point processes on spaces with measured walls. This construction furthermore leads to quantitative bounds on the two-point functions, exhibiting in particular exponential decay of the two-point function in several prominent examples of Haagerup groups, including co-compact Fuchsian groups, co-compact discrete subgroups of $\mathrm{Isom}(\mathbb H^n)$ and lamplighters over free groups. This method also allows us to extend the aforementioned characterization of property (T) to the setting of relative property (T) and provide an application to Bernoulli percolation at the uniqueness threshold.

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21.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

MLLP-VRAIN UPV system for the IWSLT 2026 Simultaneous Speech Translation task

作者:
Jorge Iranzo-S\'anchez↗Gerard Mas-Moll\`a↗Adri\`a Gim\'enez↗Jorge Civera↗Albert Sanchis↗Alfons Juan↗

This work describes the participation of the MLLP-VRAIN research group in the shared task of the IWSLT 2026 Simultaneous Speech Translation track. Our submission utilizes the recently released Parakeet and Qwen 3.5 models to create a robust, cascaded solution for long-form SimulST through the use of adaptive "black-box" policies. We explore relaxations of these policies to achieve better quality-latency trade-offs. Compared to last year, we participate on all language directions. In addition to this, for the En$\rightarrow${De, It, Zh} directions we also participate in this year's new context track employing a combination of ASR word-boosting and a RAG mechanism of offline pre-translated exemplars to guide generation and enrich our system with domain-specific context. Finally, we provide a detailed latency analysis of our system. Compared to last year, results on the MCIF En$\rightarrow$De test set shows a substantial quality improvement of +5.82 XCOMET-XL. Our context track processing further improves performance by +1.03.

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22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

David vs. Goliath in Next Activity Prediction: Argmax vs. LSTM, Transformer, and LLM

作者:
Hans Weytjens↗Ingo Weber↗

arXiv:2606.15868v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Next activity prediction (NAP) is a cornerstone of predictive process monitoring (PPM), enabling organizations to move from retrospective analysis to proactive process steering. The PPM field has progressed from classical machine learning through deep learning architectures such as LSTMs and Transformers to large language models (LLMs). Despite growing model complexity, no benchmark jointly compares LLMs, Transformers, LSTMs, and simple baselines in a direct sequence modeling setting for NAP. In this paper, we fill this gap with a systematic benchmark. We compare vocabulary-adapted LLMs, Transformers trained from scratch, LLM-distilled Transformers, and LSTMs against a simple counting-based argmax baseline across seven real-life event logs. Our results tell a David vs. Goliath story: pretraining confers no consistent improvement over training from scratch, model size shows little effect on performance, and on most datasets the argmax baseline matches or approaches the performance of billion-parameter LLMs.

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23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Neural operator-based digital twins for modeling amyloid-$\beta$ and tau propagation and treatment optimization in Alzheimer's disease

作者:
Xiaofeng Xu↗Tingting Dan↗Zifan Zhou↗Bin Li↗Guorong Wu↗Wenrui Hao↗

arXiv:2606.25185v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurately predicting the spatiotemporal evolution of amyloid-$\beta$ and tau proteins at the individual level is critical for improving the diagnosis and treatment of Alzheimer's disease. We consider the problem of constructing patient-specific digital twins that model the propagation of these biomarkers on the cortical surface using reaction–diffusion dynamics. A major challenge is that the underlying nonlinear aggregation mechanisms are unknown and must be inferred from sparse, noisy, and heterogeneous longitudinal PET imaging data. To address this, we develop a data-driven framework that learns biomarker dynamics directly from clinical observations. The approach combines operator learning with reduced-order representations to infer governing equations of disease progression from data. Using this framework, we achieve predictive accuracies of 87\% for amyloid-$\beta$ and 81\% for tau. Building on the learned dynamics, we further formulate a PDE-constrained optimal control problem to design personalized therapeutic strategies that regulate pathological protein propagation. By integrating data-driven dynamical modeling with treatment optimization, the proposed digital twin framework provides an interpretable and predictive platform for understanding disease progression and enabling precision interventions in neurodegenerative disorders.

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24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-25

On a remark of de Gennes concerning three-dimensional polyelectrolytes

作者:
Carl Mueller↗Shiquan Li↗

arXiv:2604.08389v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This work is inspired by a remark of de Gennes about polyelectrolytes, which are charged polymers. A common model for a polymer is a self-avoiding or self-repelling random walk or Brownian motion. For polyelectrolytes, the repelling potential is the Coulomb potential arising from pairs of charged particles. We show that in the continuous case of Brownian motion in three dimensions, the spread of the polymer, in particular the the radius of gyration of a polyelectrolyte of length $T$ grows linearly with $T$, up to logarithmic corrections.

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25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

RAID: Semantic Graph Diffusion for True Cold-Start and Cross-Lingual Forecasting

作者:
Arunkumar V↗Manoranjan Gandhudi↗Gangadharan G. R↗Arun Prakash↗S. Senthilkumar↗

arXiv:2606.16925v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series foundation models show strong transfer performance when given a non-empty history window. However, true cold-start scenarios, where a new item has no prior observations, violate this assumption. We propose RAID (Retrieval-Augmented Iterative Diffusion) a framework, which replaces history-based correlation learning with metadata-driven semantic retrieval and graph-conditioned diffusion. RAID maps textual metadata into a shared semantic space using a frozen multilingual embedding model and constructs an inductive retrieval graph that extends naturally to unseen items. It first forms a base forecast by aggregating information from semantically related neighbors, then refines this forecast with a gated diffusion module to model residual uncertainty. Under a strict true cold-start protocol, RAID outperforms strong foundation models and competitive baselines on both forecasting accuracy and prediction interval coverage, while reducing inference latency by an order of magnitude through non-autoregressive decoding. The shared semantic space also enables zero-shot cross-lingual transfer, allowing a model trained on English descriptions to generalize to items described in other languages without direct supervision.

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