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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Robust State-Conditional Feature-Weighted Jump Models for Temporal Clustering

arXiv:2606.13146v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a robust feature-weighted jump model for time-dependent clustering. A penalty is used to encourage smoothness of transitions over time, while robustness is achieved through the use of a Tukey's biweight loss function. An additional parameter controls the variability of feature weights across states, allowing the model to assign state-specific relevance to each feature. We illustrate in simulation how the method accurately recovers the true cluster sequence and reliably identifies relevant features, outperforming competing approaches, particularly in the presence of outliers. We conclude with two empirical applications, one on the number of conflict-related homicides in Kosovo in the period 1998-2000, and another on macroeconomic performance of twelve European countries in the period 1949-2024.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Multi-Rate Mixture of Experts for Accelerating Liquid Neural Network Training

arXiv:2606.12240v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multivariate time-series data often exhibit complex temporal dependencies, irregular sampling, and heterogeneous dynamics across multiple time scales, making accurate sequence modeling particularly challenging. Traditional recurrent neural networks (RNNs), such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, operate in discrete time and may struggle to effectively capture continuous and irregular temporal behaviors. Liquid Neural Networks (LNNs) address some of these limitations through continuous-time dynamics, but standard LNN architectures typically rely on a single dynamical system, limiting their ability to model heterogeneous temporal patterns. To address these challenges, we propose a Multi-Rate Mixture-of-Experts (MR-MoE) framework built on top of Liquid Neural Networks. In the proposed architecture, multiple LNN-based experts operate at distinct time scales, enabling the model to explicitly separate fast-changing dynamics from slow-evolving temporal trends. A gating network further enables adaptive expert specialization based on input conditions. In addition, we incorporate both feature-level and temporal attention mechanisms to improve robustness, interpretability, and long-range dependency modeling. Feature-level attention suppresses noisy or irrelevant variables, while temporal attention selectively focuses on informative historical states. We evaluate the proposed framework on a complex multivariate time-series prediction task and compare it against strong baselines, including LSTM, monolithic LNN, and standard MoE models. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed MR-MoE framework consistently achieves improved AUROC and AUPRC performance while maintaining favorable computational efficiency. These results highlight the effectiveness of combining continuous-time dynamics, multi-scale expert decomposition, and adaptive attention mechanisms for time-series modeling.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

MedGuards: Multi-Agent System for Reliable Medical Error Detection and Correction

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in healthcare settings, accurate error detection and correction in generated or existing text becomes critical, as even minor mistakes can pose risks to patient safety. Existing methods for error detection and correction, including automated checks and heuristic-based approaches, do not generalize well across unseen datasets. In this paper, we propose MedGuards as a medical safety guardrail, which is a new framework that treats medical error detection and correction as a multi-agent in-context learning task. Specialized agents separately detect, localize, and correct errors, while a confidence-guided arbitration mechanism resolves disagreements using reasoning traces and confidence scores. This design enhances interpretability, robustness, and adaptability, without requiring additional training of the base LLMs. Additionally, we introduce the Keyword-Prioritized Correction Score (KPCS), a new evaluation metric that considers whether critical keywords within the reference text are generated correctly, providing a more comprehensive assessment than conventional metrics. Experiments across four multilingual medical datasets consisting of clinical notes demonstrate significant improvements by the proposed framework across several metrics and models. Our aim is to enable safer deployment of LLMs in real-world healthcare applications. For reproducibility, we make our code publicly available at https://github.com/congboma/MedErrBench.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Lifecycle-Aware Dynamic Analysis for Secure ML Model Execution

arXiv:2606.19023v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The growing reliance on pre-trained Machine Learning (ML) models has introduced new attack surfaces. Recent vulnerabilities demonstrate that malicious behavior can be embedded within model artifacts, often bypassing existing defenses. Current model-scanning solutions primarily rely on static, format-specific rules or known attack signatures, which limit their ability to generalize across frameworks and to detect novel exploitation paths. In contrast, we propose a solution that focuses on the effects an attack has on the host system executing the model and builds on foundational intuitions about ML model execution. In particular, we observe that ML models operate within well-defined lifecycle phases and that, within each phase, interactions with the host system are highly structured and predictable. We translate these intuitions into Moat, a dynamic lifecycle-aware approach for securing ML model execution, and instantiate this design in Re-Moat, our reference implementation. We evaluate Re-Moat across multiple ML frameworks using 77,974 real-world model artifacts from the Hugging Face Hub, 31 Proofs-of-Concept (PoCs) from CVEs, and 334 models from a state-of-the-art dataset, and compare it against state-of-the-art model-scanning solutions. Our results show that our approach detects all evaluated attack classes while maintaining a close-to-zero false-positive rate, validating our intuitions and motivating dynamic analysis for securing ML model execution.

05.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Using outlier detection methods to incorporate highly heterogeneous infection rates into compartment models

Superspreading events (SSEs) produce extreme, rare bursts of disease transmission that standard compartment models, which assume population homogeneity, fail to capture. This inability to model heterogeneity in transmission rates can result in biased estimates of transmissivity. To address this limitation, we present a modular framework that treats SSEs as statistical outliers in case count time series and incorporates them into SIR-type models via pulse terms that transfer SSE cases directly from susceptible to infected compartments. This separation isolates anomalous SSE-driven transmission from background spread, which reduces bias when estimating mean transmission rates. We validate the approach on synthetic data generated by a stochastic model with embedded SSEs, demonstrating accurate recovery of the true non-SSE transmission parameter. We then apply the method to COVID-19 outbreaks in Hong Kong and the German district of Gutersloh, showing improved model fits and more robust estimates of background transmissivity both for a period with constant transmission and for a period with temporally structured NPI-driven heterogeneities. The framework's interchangeable outlier-detection, compartment, and SSE modules make it adaptable to diverse diseases and data contexts.

06.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-01

BeetleAtlas 2: An enhanced <i>Tribolium castaneum</i> web resource for tissue and developmental transcriptomics allowing refinement of gene predictions

by David P. Leader, Muhammad T. Naseem, Janina L. Rinke, Kenneth Veland Halberg BeetleAtlas is an online resource for tissue- and stage-specific transcriptomics in the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum. On updating from the original Tcas5.2 genome assembly to the more recent improved icTriCast1.1 genome assembly it became evident that there were major discrepancies between the gene models of the two genome annotations in use: the OGS3 and the NCBI gene sets. As neither was clearly superior we implemented a new design in BeetleAtlas 2 (beetleatlas.org) comprising two parallel ‘modes’ — one incorporating results using the NCBI gene models and a second incorporating those using the OGS3 gene models. This allows direct comparison where equivalent gene models exist: 50–57% of cases. To aid resolution of discrepancies between the two gene model sets and verification of results, gene models are linked to a custom visualization of RNA-seq read coverage of the genome in the UCSC Genome Browser. This displays reads from 22 tissues and life stages superimposed on the icTriCast1.1 genome assembly. Reference tracks show the NCBI gene models, the OGS3 gene models after translation of their coordinates from the Tcas5.2 assembly, and 1050 discontinued NCBI gene models from the previous assembly after a similar transfer of coordinates. We document various situations in which distinct patterns of expression of the tissues can be used to confirm and extend correlations between the two gene sets, resolve discrepancies between them, make corrections and identify putative genes or exons absent from the current gene sets. BeetleAtlas 2 allows those involved in Tribolium research to avoid the pitfalls inherent in incorrect gene models when planning experiments on specific genes and interpreting the results. It also demonstrates how BeetleAtlas 2 might play an important role in establishing a revised gene set for Tribolium castaneum in the future.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Surrogate Assisted Pedestrian Protection Design via a Foundation Model Orchestrated Workflow

arXiv:2606.17577v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI-driven engineering workflows face particular challenges in crash safety design: unlike aerodynamics, crash events involve highly nonlinear contact dynamics, material nonlinearity, and discrete state transitions that are difficult to capture with data-driven surrogate models. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first foundation model–orchestrated workflow for crash safety design that enables surrogate-assisted exploration for pedestrian protection, reducing evaluation time from hours per CAE simulation to seconds. The workflow integrates four components: (1) a surrogate trained on CAE crash simulations to predict pedestrian leg injury metrics from design parameters, achieving an average $R^2=0.87$ and providing distribution-free conformal prediction intervals; (2) multiobjective evolutionary search (NSGA-II) to discover diverse feasible parameter sets under user-specified constraints; (3) a morphing-based geometry generator that maps parameters to topology-preserving 3D shapes; and (4) a natural-language interface in which an LLM orchestrates the workflow and a vision–language model supports semantic comparison of generated designs. In an automotive front-bumper case study, the workflow produces 35 distinct safety-compliant alternatives from a single exploration, a process that would require weeks with conventional CAE iteration. These results suggest that foundation models can serve as integration layers between ML surrogates and physics-based simulation, helping bring AI capabilities to safety-critical engineering domains.

08.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Full $\Gamma-$expansion for the level-two large deviation rate functionals of non-reversible one-dimensional diffusions with periodic boundary conditions

arXiv:2606.17859v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Consider the diffusion process \begin{equation*} dX_{\epsilon}(t) = \mss b(X_{\epsilon}(t)) \, dt + \sqrt{2\, \epsilon\, \mss a(X_\epsilon(t))} \, dW_{t}, \end{equation*} on the one-dimensional torus $\bb T = [0,1)$. Here $\epsilon$ is the temperature, $W_{t}$ a Brownian motion on $\bb T$ and $\mss a$, $\mss b$ functions of class $C^{2}(\bb T)$ satisfying further conditions. Denote by $\mss P(\bb T)$ the set of probability measures on $\bb T$ equipped with the weak topology, and by $\ms I_{\epsilon}\colon \mss P(\bb T)\to [0,+\infty)$ the level two large deviation rate functional of the diffusion $X_{\epsilon}(\cdot)$. We derive a full $\Gamma-$expansion of $\ms I_{\epsilon}$, as $\epsilon \to 0$, expressing it as \begin{equation*} \ms I_{\epsilon} = \frac{1}{\epsilon} \;\ms J^{(-1)} \; +\; \ms J^{(0)} \;+\; \sum_{p=1}^{\widehat{\mf q}}\frac{1}{\theta^{(p)}_{\epsilon}}\;\ms J^{(p)}\,, \end{equation*} where $\ms J^{(-1)}$, $\ms J^{(0)}$, $\ms J^{(p)} \colon \mss P(\bb T)\to [0,+\infty]$ represent rate functionals, independent of $\epsilon$, and $\theta^{(p)}_{\epsilon}$ are the time-scales at which the Markov process $X_{\epsilon}(\cdot)$ exhibits a metastable behaviour.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

A Conservation Law for Equilibrium Propagation and Coupled Learning

arXiv:2606.15444v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this paper we show that the physical learning methods known as coupled learning (CL) and equilibrium propagation (EP) conserve a mass-like quantity in the trainable parameters in the continuous-time, small-nudging limit. We prove that this conservation holds in a broad range of physically relevant settings. We then show that the conservation law constrains the training dynamics in a way that makes convergence reliable in important settings for linear circuits. We conclude by discussing some practical implications of this conservation law.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Learning Object Manipulation from Scratch via Contrastive Interaction

arXiv:2606.11525v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Contrastive Reinforcement Learning (CRL) has seen recent success in a wide variety of goal-conditioned robotics tasks by learning structured representations of the dynamics. However, despite its success in locomotion and simpler control domains, CRL often struggles in interaction-rich manipulation. We argue that a key source of this difficulty is object-centric interaction, such as contact or grasping, that induces distinct changes in the underlying dynamic modes. In this work, we formulate manipulation dynamics as a piecewise-smooth Markov process and show that interaction-induced mode changes create piecewise nonlinear reachability structures that are difficult for standard CRL energy functions to represent and plan over. Based on this analysis, we introduce Interaction-weighted Resampling (IWR). IWR performs interaction-aware resampling around phases before, during, and after interactions, encouraging the learned representation to preserve the mode boundaries that determine future reachability to capture multi-modal and piecewise nonlinear reachability. Across interaction-centric environments, including 2D dynamic control, robotic manipulation, and robot air hockey, IWR improves both sample efficiency and overall performance over prior CRL methods, with 19.8% average improvement in simulation. Finally, using a sim-to-real pipeline with policies trained by IWR, we demonstrate the first real-world goal-conditioned robot air hockey agent capable of hitting goals, improving success from 25% to 60%. Project Page: IWR-arxiv.github.io.

11.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-23

Silicon Valley’s vision for global AI is flawed: each country needs its own blueprint

From energy grids to language performance, emerging economies are exposing the limits of today’s artificial-intelligence strategy as it expands globally. From energy grids to language performance, emerging economies are exposing the limits of today’s artificial-intelligence strategy as it expands globally.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Few-Shot Resampling for Scalable Statistically-Sound Data Mining

arXiv:2606.11235v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A key step in knowledge discovery is the evaluation of data mining results. In several applications, including pattern mining, graph analysis, and others, this step includes the evaluation of the statistical significance of the results, to avoid spurious discoveries due only to noise or random fluctuations in the data. While specialized procedures have been developed for some specific applications, resampling-based approaches are widely used, in particular for complex analyses where analytical results cannot be derived. However, current resampling-based approaches require the generation and analysis of thousands of resampled datasets, and are therefore impractical for large datasets or computationally intensive analyses. In this paper, we introduce FewRS, a simple and effective resampling-based approach to assess the statistical significance of data mining results with rigorous guarantees on the probability of false discoveries. Our approach can be used in every situation where resampling-based approaches are applied. FewRS builds on our derivation of a novel bound to the supremum deviation of test statistics representing the quality of data mining results. We prove that FewRS needs to generate and analyze an extremely small number of resampled datasets, leading to a highly scalable approach with wide applicability. We test our approach on common tasks such as pattern mining and network analysis. In all cases, our approach results in a reduction of up to two orders of magnitude in running time compared to the state of the art, while preserving high statistical power, enabling the statistical validation of data mining results on large-scale real-world datasets.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Automated jailbreak attack targeting multiple defense strategies

arXiv:2606.16751v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of tasks. However, their safety remains a critical concern due to their susceptibility to adversarial prompt-based attacks. In this paper, we present UNIATTACK, an adversarial testing framework designed from a defense-oriented perspective to systematically construct effective black-box attack prompts. Unlike prior approaches that rely on static templates or iterative model-specific tuning, UNIATTACK extracts minimal but high-impact attack features from diverse existing attacks, optimizes them via a specialized attacker LLM, and composes them into flexible templates through automated refinement process. This feature-centric construction enables one-shot attacks that generalize across multiple models and safety categories, providing a practical tool for assessing LLM robustness. Our evaluation results shows that compared to the baselines, UNIATTACK achieves an average attack success rate (ASR) improvement of 64.63\%-248.82\% on models deployed with multi-layered defense mechanisms and it only takes 0.03\%-4.96\% cost of the baselines. UNIATTACK artifact is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/UniAttack-Artifact-30F1.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

TA-RAG: Tone-Aware Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Peer-Support Health Communication

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) successfully grounds large language model (LLM) outputs in trusted documents, but factual grounding alone is insufficient for sensitive peer-support health communication. In domains such as HIV peer support, responses must also be accessible, stigma-free, empathetic, and tailored to the recipient. This paper presents TA-RAG, a lightweight, prompt-based tone-aware RAG framework that embeds explicit tone control into a RAG pipeline without requiring model fine-tuning. We operationalise tone across four core components: stigma-free rewriting, readability adjustment, recipient adaptation, and empathy rephrasing. We evaluate TA-RAG through component-level tests using questions derived from HIV Online Learning Australia (HOLA), UNAIDS terminology guidance, readability metrics, peer-support standards from National Association of People with HIV Australia (NAPWHA), and a public empathy dataset. Results show that the TA-RAG's components improve their targeted communication quality while preserving key content. These findings emphasise that prompt-based tone control is a potential direction for making RAG outputs suitable for sensitive peer-support health communication.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Patients With Personality: Realistic Patient Simulation through Controlled Diversity and Selective Disclosure

arXiv:2606.17441v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Simulating realistic patient interactions is a key requirement to testing clinical applications of LLMs at scale without time-consuming and expensive user studies. However, existing approaches often lack realism and controllability, often oversharing information unprompted, and failing to capture the wide variability of patient behavior. Here, we introduce PatientsWithPersonality (PWP), a patient simulation framework that generates realistic yet diverse virtual patient responses through explicit personality parametrization over a latent patient state. Grounded in HEXACO, a six-dimensional personality space used to quantify and parameterize human behavioral traits, our approach enables fine-grained control over conversational style, cooperativeness, and information disclosure within a unified framework. In a clinician evaluation, PWP is judged nearly as realistic as recorded human actors and clearly ahead of prior simulators, while being flagged as "too informative" far less often. Conditioning on HEXACO axes yields personas whose configured traits are recoverable by both clinicians and an autorater, span a substantially wider behavioral footprint than the closest baseline, and prevent oversharing. Altogether, our framework paves the way for more accurate and informative LLM benchmarking through our realistic and steerable patient simulator.

16.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Probes of chaos over the Clifford group and approach to Haar values

arXiv:2603.29695v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Chaotic behavior of quantum systems can be characterized by the adherence of the expectation values of given probes to moments of the Haar distribution. In this work, we analyze the behavior of several probes of chaos using a technique known as Isospectral Twirling [1]. This consists in fixing the spectrum of the Hamiltonian and picking its eigenvectors at random. Here, we study the transition from stabilizer bases to random bases according to the Haar measure by T-doped random quantum circuits. We then compute the average value of the probes over ensembles of random spectra from Random Matrix Theory, the Gaussian Diagonal Ensemble and the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble, associated with non-chaotic and chaotic behavior respectively. We also study the behavior of such probes over the Toric Code Hamiltonian.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Analyzing Defensive Misdirection Against Model-Guided Automated Attacks on Agentic AI Systems

arXiv:2606.20470v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Agentic AI systems increasingly rely on language-model components to interpret instructions, process external data, invoke tools, and coordinate with other agents. These capabilities make prompt-injection and jailbreak attacks more consequential, especially as attackers adopt model-guided automation to scale probing, prompt refinement, and response evaluation. This work analyzes the resulting attack-defense setting through a probabilistic model of a target system, its defense mechanism, and the attacker's automated judge. Our analysis shows that conventional detect-and-block defenses can allow attacker success rate (ASR) to approach one as the query budget grows, since predictable refusals provide useful feedback to automated search. We then examine detect-and-misdirect, where detected malicious interactions receive controlled, non-operational responses designed to induce false-positive errors in the attacker's judge. This strategy reduces the positive predictive value of attacker-selected candidates and yields a bounded asymptotic ASR. We evaluate a proof-of-concept realization of this strategy through Contextual Misdirection via Progressive Engagement (CMPE), a lightweight conversational misdirection method designed to replace predictable refusal text with safe but strategically misleading responses in automated jailbreak settings. On jailbreak benchmarks, CMPE reduces estimated ASR upper bounds by up to two orders of magnitude and nearly eliminates verified attack success in end-to-end PAIR and GPTFuzz attack runs.

18.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-19

StickForStats: automated statistical assumption validation for reproducible computational biology

Reproducible computational biology depends on statistical decisions that routine workflows often skip: verifying that a differential-expression test's assumptions hold across all genes, that a strategy-comparison ANOVA is robust to non-normality, or that a meta-analysis is not distorted by publication bias. Surveys consistently find that fewer than 20% of published biomedical studies report checking these assumptions, and existing statistical software leaves validation to the analyst as an optional step. We present StickForStats, an open-source web platform that reframes assumption validation as a default precondition for every analysis. Its Guardian system–a middleware pipeline of eight validators (normality, variance homogeneity, independence, outliers, sample size, modality, linearity, homoscedasticity)–checks assumptions before execution and, on critical violations, reroutes to an appropriate nonparametric alternative with a documented decision trail. At genome scale, applying Guardian to a 91-sample synovial-sarcoma RNA-seq study (GSE271517) cascaded 90.6% of 27,221 genes to a rank-based test and flipped the differential-expression verdict for 553 genes–479 rescued from an under-powered t-test and 74 outlier-driven false positives rejected–materially changing the gene list a biologist would act on. The same automatic validation generalizes across domains: a CRISPR editing-strategy comparison (ANOVA F = 1122, with Guardian recommending Kruskal-Wallis H = 36.6), an ordinal correlation (Pearson r = 0.476 corrected to Spearman {rho} = 0.479), and a sixteen-trial clinical meta-analysis revealing severe publication bias (Egger's t = -5.78, p < 0.001); a complementary module extends the same validators to published manuscripts, checking claims against CONSORT, STROBE, ICH-E9, and JARS-Quant reporting standards. By making assumption validation automatic and transparent, StickForStats targets a tractable, under-served contributor to irreproducibility. The platform is MIT-licensed, validated against SciPy and R, and freely available at https://github.com/visvikbharti/stickforstats_new.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Learning with a Single Rollout via Monte Carlo Pass@k Critic

arXiv:2606.25451v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Estimating token-level advantages in reinforcement learning (RL) for language models remains challenging because scaling up episodic experience collection is expensive. The difficulty intensifies for baseline advantage estimation methods, where repeated sampling causes trajectories to diverge into substantially different reasoning prefixes. In this context, RL algorithms such as GRPO prove limited: an outcome reward is too sparse to be attributed to specific actions like intermediate steps, and comparisons across sampled traces are non-trivial because they are heterogeneous. To mitigate both the computational cost of repeated sampling and the difficulty of credit assignment, we study single-rollout proximal policy optimization (SR-PPO) featuring token-level credit assignment in RL for language models. Instead of estimating advantages by normalizing episodic returns within the candidate group, we train a calibrated token-level credit critic using Monte Carlo outcomes from one rollout per prompt. Specifically, we use the critic to predict the Pass@k success probability at the prompt prefix, which is derived from a Pass@1 attempt. This choice yields a more selective learning signal than Pass@1: it discounts easily solved prefixes while prioritizing hard ones whose success probability remains marginal. We show that as $k$ increases, Pass@k converges to a reachability indicator, reflecting whether a prefix can lead to at least one successful continuation. In an explicit state graph, the limit ($k \rightarrow \infty$) can be computed in $O(|V|+|E|)$ time, offering a promising surrogate for direct credit assignment without the need to sample contrastive traces. As an initial validation, SR-PPO exhibits stable learning dynamics, along with consistent gains in Pass@128 success rates on mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as HMMT26 and AIME24.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Are LLM Evaluators Really Narcissists? Sanity Checking Self-Preference Evaluations

Recent research has shown that large language models (LLMs) favor their own outputs when acting as judges, undermining the integrity of automated post-training and evaluation workflows. However, it is difficult to disentangle which behaviors are explained by narcissism versus experimental confounds. Specifically, LLM evaluators may deliver self-preferring verdicts when comparing responses to questions they fail on; these verdicts may not depend on the identity of the author, but on evaluator quality. We correct this by directly comparing the judge's voting distribution in cases where it evaluates itself versus another model. This evaluator quality baseline reveals that only 51% of examples in previous findings retain statistical significance against this null hypothesis, covering 89.6% of total self-preference probability mass. Finally, we compare the entropy of voting distributions, suggesting uncertainty-driven overlap, and show that our procedure enables more careful documentation against the backdrop of judge-bias research.

21.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-19

Towards practical PDMP sampling: Metropolis adjustments, locally adaptive step-sizes, and NUTS-based time lengths

arXiv:2503.11479v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Piecewise-Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) hold significant promise for sampling from complex probability distributions. However, their practical implementation is hindered by the need to compute model-specific bounds. Conversely, while Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) offers a generally efficient approach to sampling, its inability to adaptively tune step sizes impedes its performance when sampling complex distributions like funnels. To address these limitations, we introduce three innovative concepts: (a) a Metropolis-adjusted approximation for PDMP simulation that eliminates the need for explicit bounds without compromising the invariant measure, (b) an adaptive step size mechanism compatible with the Metropolis correction, and (c) a No U-Turn Sampler (NUTS)-inspired scheme for dynamically selecting path lengths in PDMPs. These three ideas can be seamlessly integrated into a single, `doubly-adaptive' PDMP sampler with favourable robustness and efficiency properties.

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Use of the Pharmacy First service in England in the first 12 months: geographic variation and health system context

Objectives: The Pharmacy First (PF) service was introduced across England from 31 January 2024 to expand the clinical role of community pharmacies and improve access to primary care. This paper describes use of PF in its first 12 months, in terms of uptake, access routes, consultation outcomes, geographic variations, service costs and antimicrobial supply. Methods: A descriptive analysis of all PF consultations submitted for payment to NHS Business Services Authority in England between 31 January 2024 and 31 January 2025. Pharmacy-level consultation data were linked to national data on population, location and pharmacy characteristics. PF use was examined using population-standardised consultation rates and consultations per pharmacy. Results: During the first year of implementation, 2,205,731 PF consultations were recorded as delivered across 11,349 pharmacies, with payment of GBP123 million to pharmacies. Uptake increased steadily over time. Most consultations were for acute sore throat (33%) and uncomplicated urinary tract infection (27%), with corresponding antibiotics, phenoxymethylpenicillin and nitrofurantoin being the most supplied. Most people self-referred (74%) into the service, with 95% of consultations managed without onward referral. Substantial geographic variation was observed. Northern regions had higher use based on the eligible population. The South East and Midlands had higher activity per pharmacy. London showed a distinct pattern, with higher self-referral into the service, lower medication supply and higher referral to other healthcare services. Higher consultation volume was weakly associated with pharmacy characteristics, including opening hours, pharmacy type and retail setting, and local context, in terms of socio-economic and geographic factors. Conclusions: PF had immediate uptake and is operating primarily as a direct-access model for common acute conditions. Findings suggest that PF is contributing to improved access to care and may shift demand away from general practice. However, the service uptake appears to be shaped by geographic location, proximity to other healthcare services and pharmacy characteristics.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Disentangling adiposity-related and non-adiposity-related genetic pathways for type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE To identify circulating proteins associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk through pathways not fully explained by body mass index (BMI), and to assess therapeutic actionability. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We applied GWAS-by-subtraction within a genomic structural equation model to European ancestry summary statistics for T2D (74,124 cases, 824,006 controls) and BMI (n = 681,275), partitioning T2D liability into BMI-related and BMI-subtracted components. We then performed proteome-wide Mendelian randomization (MR) using cis-protein quantitative trait loci from four plasma proteomics cohorts: ARIC, deCODE, Fenland, and the UK Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project. Prioritized proteins passed sensitivity analyses with alternative MR methods and were supported by colocalization evidence. Tissue-resolution regulatory support was assessed using cis-eQTL colocalization across GTEx and pancreatic islet, subcutaneous adipose, and whole-blood resources. Actionability was evaluated using the druggable genome and Open Targets. RESULTS GWAS-by-subtraction attenuated the genetic correlation between BMI and BMI-subtracted T2D from 0.54 (SE 0.02) to 0.35 (SE 0.02). Proteome-wide MR prioritized 29 proteins for BMI-subtracted T2D. Thirteen showed eQTL colocalization in at least one tissue, implicating liver and intermediary metabolism (GCDH, NOTCH2), pancreatic islet biology (CTRB2, MANBA), adipose and Wnt signaling (RSPO3, GALNT3), and whole blood regulatory signals (PAM, SNUPN). Sixteen proteins were classified within druggable-genome Tiers 1-3, and five had existing Open Targets compounds. CONCLUSIONS Integrating GWAS-by-subtraction, proteome-wide MR, and colocalization nominated 29 proteins associated with T2D liability not fully explained by BMI. These findings highlight genetically supported targets for follow-up studies of T2D therapies that complement weight-centered approaches.

24.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-22

Will AI spark a scientific renaissance — or a diffuse monoculture?

作者:

Artificial intelligence’s ability to enrich science will depend not only on model capability, but also on whether researchers, reviewers and funders reward originality over speed. Artificial intelligence’s ability to enrich science will depend not only on model capability, but also on whether researchers, reviewers and funders reward originality over speed.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Quantization Inflates Reasoning: Token Inflation as a Hidden Cost of Low-Bit Reasoning Models

arXiv:2606.25519v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantization is widely used to reduce the inference cost of large language models, but its effect on reasoning models is not fully captured by final-answer accuracy or per-token latency. We show that low-bit post-training quantization can introduce a hidden test-time compute cost: quantized reasoning models often generate longer chains of thought even when they still answer correctly. Across mathematical reasoning, code generation, scientific question answering, and agentic tool-use benchmarks, we find that INT4/INT3 quantization can preserve accuracy but increase reasoning-token usage, offsetting the expected per-token speedup. To measure this effect, we introduce the CoT Token Inflation Ratio, which compares reasoning length between quantized and full-precision models averaged across all evaluation benchmarks. We further show that token inflation is accompanied by behavioral changes in the reasoning trace, including more intermediate steps and greater semantic repetition. These changes translate into measurable end-to-end real-world serving penalties. Finally, we evaluate mitigation strategies and find that prompting and decoding-time sampling offer inconsistent accuracy-length trade-offs, while quantization-aware training shows more promise in reducing both accuracy degradation and token inflation. Our results suggest that reasoning-token usage should be reported alongside accuracy when evaluating quantized reasoning models.