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01.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

Estimating vaccine-prevented disease outcomes when vaccination has only direct effects

作者:
Yang↗Magee↗Morris↗S. E↗Mathis↗S. M↗Wiegand↗Iuliano↗D. A↗Biggerstaff↗Olesen↗S. W↗…

Vaccination can be a useful intervention for reducing infectious disease burden. Estimating numbers of vaccine-prevented health outcomes is one approach to quantifying the benefits of vaccination. Here we improve a method described by Foppa et al. (1) that assumes vaccination has only direct effects, that is, it cannot prevent infection or onward transmission of the disease. We rederive this method and derive an improved method that increases estimation accuracy with minimal additional analytical complexity. To evaluate the improved method, we simulated disease outbreaks and compared the accuracy of the two methods for estimating prevented disease outcomes. In 84% of simulations performed over a wide parameter space, the improved method had an equal or smaller estimation error compared to the original Foppa method, with 7.9-fold smaller mean error and 44-fold smaller standard deviation of errors. Our study improves a method for estimating prevented burden when assuming vaccination has only direct effects.

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02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Learning Earthquake Wave Arrival Time Picking from Labels with Inaccuracies

作者:
Sen Li↗Xu Yang↗S. Mostafa Mousavi↗Anye Cao↗Keting Fan↗Yaoqi Liu↗Changbin Wang↗Qiang Niu↗

arXiv:2606.15377v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Inaccurately labeled training data, or "label noise", poses a significant threat to the integrity of supervised machine learning models. This corruption directly degrades performance by teaching the model erroneous mappings between features and labels, which leads to poor generalization and reduced accuracy on properly labeled validation and test data. Current seismological applications mainly rely on large-scale training sets or data augmentation to reduce the label-noise impact, which can be labor-intensive and costly. Here, we introduce a Label Noise-Contrastive Robust Learning (LaNCoR) approach that can effectively handle noisy labels in seismic signal processing tasks, without requiring large-scale training datasets. In this approach, the input waveform feature and label representation distributions are aligned in the feature space to correct mislabeling and reduce its impact on the training process. We present LaNCoR's performance on the task of P-phase arrival-time picking of real microseismic data using two baseline models and training approaches. Our results indicate that LaNCoR can improve performance by up to 28.8% across performance metrics. This approach holds great promise for model training in seismology and geosciences.

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03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Multi-Granular Attention-Driven Reinforcement Learning Framework for Web Intelligent Enhancement Systems

作者:
Navin Chhibber↗Deepak Singh↗Anokh Kishore↗Nikita Chawla↗K. Anguraj↗

arXiv:2606.19690v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: From the past few years, web intelligent enhancement systems increasingly rely on heterogeneous and dynamic web data to deliver personalized, context-aware services. However, traditional machine learning, deep learning, and reinforcement learning models often struggle with semantic understanding, adaptability, and scalability in continuously evolving web environments. In this research, a Multi-Granular Attention-based Reinforcement Web Intelligent Enhancement System (MGAR-WIES) is proposed to address the challenges by integrating semantic graph modeling, attention mechanisms, and adaptive reinforcement learning. Initially, heterogeneous web data comprising structured, semi-structured and unstructured sources are collected and preprocessed for generating unified feature representations. These representations are transformed into a dynamic semantic graph, where entities and their relationships are modeled by using graph embeddings enhanced by attention mechanisms for capturing both local relevance and global contextual dependencies. Subsequently, an adaptive multi-agent reinforcement learning strategy leverages the attention-aware semantic states to optimize personalized web actions like content recommendation, navigation optimization, and service adaptation. Finally, the continuous online feedback is further integrated to update graph representations and learning policies in real time by ensuring sustained adaptability and performance. The proposed MGAR-WIES acheived better results in terms of accuracy (80%) when compared with existing approaches.

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04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Less is More: Improving LLM Reasoning with Minimal Test-Time Intervention

作者:
Zhen Yang↗Mingyang Zhang↗Feng Chen↗Ganggui Ding↗Liang Hou↗Xin Tao↗Ying-Cong Chen↗

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) has focused on test-time scaling to improve reasoning via increased inference computation, but often at the cost of efficiency. We revisit test-time behavior and uncover a simple yet underexplored phenomenon: reasoning uncertainty is highly localized-only a small subset of high-entropy tokens dominantly affects output correctness. Motivated by this, we propose Minimal Test-Time Intervention (MTI), a training-free framework that enhances reasoning accuracy and stability with minimal overhead. MTI includes: (i) Selective CFG intervention, applying classifier-free guidance only at uncertain positions; and (ii) Lightweight negative-prompt guidance, reusing the main model's KV cache to approximate unconditional decoding efficiently. MTI yields consistent gains across general, coding, and STEM tasks-e.g., +9.28% average improvement on six benchmarks for DeepSeek-R1-7B and +11.25% on AIME2024 using Ling-mini-2.0-while remaining highly efficient.

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05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Improving Pre-trained Adult Glioma Segmentation Models Using only Post-processing Techniques

作者:
Abhijeet Parida↗Daniel Capell\'an-Mart\'in↗Zhifan Jiang↗Nishad Kulkarni↗Krithika Iyer↗Austin Tapp↗Syed Muhammad Anwar↗Mar\'ia J. Ledesma-Carbayo↗Marius George Linguraru↗

Gliomas are the most common malignant brain tumors in adults and are among the most lethal. Despite aggressive treatment, the median survival rate is less than 15 months. Accurate multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) tumor segmentation is critical for surgical planning, radiotherapy, and disease monitoring. While deep learning models have improved the accuracy of automated segmentation, large-scale pre-trained models generalize poorly and often underperform, producing systematic errors such as false positives, label swaps, and slice discontinuities in slices. These limitations are further compounded by unequal access to GPU resources and the growing environmental cost of large-scale model training. In this work, we propose adaptive post-processing techniques to refine the quality of glioma segmentations produced by large-scale pretrained models developed for various types of tumors. We demonstrated the techniques in multiple BraTS 2025 segmentation challenge tasks, with the ranking metric improving by 14.9 % for the sub-Saharan Africa challenge and 0.9% for the adult glioma challenge. This approach promotes a shift in brain tumor segmentation research from increasingly complex model architectures to efficient, clinically aligned post-processing strategies that are precise, computationally fair, and sustainable.

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06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

CPAM: Context-Preserving Adaptive Manipulation for Zero-Shot Real Image Editing

作者:
Dinh-Khoi Vo↗Thanh-Toan Do↗Tam V. Nguyen↗Minh-Triet Tran↗Trung-Nghia Le↗

Editing natural images using textual descriptions in text-to-image diffusion models remains a significant challenge, particularly in achieving consistent generation and handling complex, non-rigid objects. Existing methods often struggle to preserve textures and identity, require extensive fine-tuning, and exhibit limitations in editing specific spatial regions or objects while retaining background details. This paper proposes Context-Preserving Adaptive Manipulation (CPAM), a novel zero-shot framework for complicated, non-rigid real image editing. Specifically, we propose a preservation adaptation module that adjusts self-attention mechanisms to preserve and independently control the object and background effectively. This ensures that the objects' shapes, textures, and identities are maintained while keeping the background undistorted during the editing process using the mask guidance technique. Additionally, we develop a localized extraction module to mitigate the interference with the non-desired modified regions during conditioning in cross-attention mechanisms. We also introduce various mask-guidance strategies to facilitate diverse image manipulation tasks in a simple manner. CPAM can be seamlessly integrated with multiple diffusion backbones, including SD1.5, SD2.1, and SDXL, demonstrating strong generalization across different model architectures. Extensive experiments on our newly constructed Image Manipulation BenchmArk (IMBA), a robust benchmark dataset specifically designed for real image editing, demonstrate that our proposed method is the preferred choice among human raters, outperforming existing state-of-the-art editing techniques. The source code and data will be publicly released at the project page: https://vdkhoi20.github.io/CPAM

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07.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Diffusion approximations for interacting stochastic systems with reflection and control

作者:
Thoa Thieu↗Roderick Melnik↗

arXiv:2601.05895v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study diffusion approximations for a class of interacting stochastic systems with reflection and control. Motivated by interacting stochastic dynamics subject to feedback mechanisms and boundary constraints, we consider diffusion-scaled stochastic processes incorporating stochastic fluctuations, state-dependent interactions, and reflection. Under suitable assumptions, we establish convergence in distribution of the scaled processes to systems of interacting reflected stochastic differential equations of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type. The limiting dynamics capture key features of constrained multi-agent systems, including mean-reverting behavior, interaction effects, and confinement within bounded domains through Skorokhod reflection. The analysis combines diffusion-scaling arguments, stability estimates, and continuity properties of the Skorokhod map to connect discrete stochastic systems with their reflected diffusion limits. To illustrate the framework, we present numerical examples motivated by crowd dynamics and neural population dynamics. The simulations demonstrate qualitative agreement between the finite stochastic systems and the corresponding reflected diffusion models and illustrate how diffusion approximations can provide tractable descriptions of interacting stochastic systems with constraints.

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08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Imbalanced Semi-Supervised Learning via Label Refinement and Threshold Adjustment

作者:
Zeju Li↗Ying-Qiu Zheng↗Chen Chen↗Saad Jbabdi↗

arXiv:2407.05370v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms often struggle to perform well when trained on imbalanced data. In such scenarios, the generated pseudo-labels tend to exhibit a bias toward the majority class, and models relying on these pseudo-labels can further amplify this bias. Existing imbalanced SSL algorithms explore pseudo-labeling strategies based on either pseudo-label refinement (PLR) or threshold adjustment (THA), aiming to mitigate the bias through heuristic-driven designs. However, through a careful statistical analysis, we find that existing strategies are suboptimal: most PLR algorithms are either overly empirical or rely on the unrealistic assumption that models remain well-calibrated throughout training, while most THA algorithms depend on flawed metrics for pseudo-label selection. To address these shortcomings, we first derive the theoretically optimal form of pseudo-labels under class imbalance. This foundation leads to our key contribution: SEmi-supervised learning with pseudo-label optimization based on VALidation data (SEVAL), a unified framework that learns both PLR and THA parameters from a class-balanced subset of training data. By jointly optimizing these components, SEVAL adapts to specific task requirements while ensuring per-class pseudo-label reliability. Our experiments demonstrate that SEVAL outperforms state-of-the-art SSL methods, producing more accurate and effective pseudo-labels across various imbalanced SSL scenarios while remaining compatible with diverse SSL algorithms. The code is publicly available (https://github.com/ZerojumpLine/SEVAL).

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09.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

Second-Order Approximation of Limit Order Books in a Single-Scale Regime

作者:
Ulrich Horst↗D\"orte Kreher↗Konstantins Starovoitovs↗

arXiv:2308.00805v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We establish a first- and second-order approximation for an infinite dimensional limit order book model in a single (critical) scaling regime where market and limit orders arrive at a common time scale. With our choice of scaling we obtain non-degenerate first- and second-order approximations for the price and volume dynamics. While the first-order approximation is given by a coupled ODE-PDE system, the second-order approximation is described in terms of an infinite-dimensional stochastic evolution equation driven by a cylindrical Brownian motion. The driving noise processes exhibit a non-trivial correlation in terms of the model parameters. We prove that the evolution equation has a unique solution and that the sequence of standardized limit order book models converges weakly to the solution of the evolution equation. The proof uses a non-standard martingale problem. We calibrate a linearized model to market data and explain how our model can be used for deriving confidence intervals of portfolio liquidation values.

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10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

MotionDPS: Motion-Compensated 3D Brain MRI Reconstruction

作者:
Antonio Ortiz-Gonzalez↗Erich Kobler↗Lukas Schletter↗Alexander Effland↗

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is highly susceptible to patient motion due to its relatively long acquisition times and the fact that data are acquired sequentially in k-space. Even small patient movements introduce phase inconsistencies across measurements, leading to severe artifacts such as blurring, ghosting, and geometric distortions that can compromise diagnostic quality. Retrospective motion compensation remains challenging, particularly in accelerated acquisitions, due to the ill-posed nature of the joint reconstruction and motion estimation problem. In this work, we propose a unified Bayesian framework for motion-compensated 3D MRI that jointly estimates the anatomical image, rigid-body motion parameters, and coil sensitivity maps directly from motion-corrupted k-space data. Our approach integrates pretrained 3D complex-valued score-based diffusion models as expressive anatomical image priors within a physics-based forward model. Inference is performed by alternating diffusion posterior image updates with efficient proximal optimization steps for motion and coil sensitivity estimation, enabling fully unsupervised reconstruction without the need for paired motion-free training data. Experiments on simulated and real-motion brain MRI datasets demonstrate that the proposed method achieves improved image quality and motion robustness compared to state-of-the-art classical and learning-based motion correction techniques, particularly in the presence of severe motion and high acceleration.

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11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Does My Embedding Reflect That $A = B$? Evaluating Mathematical Equivalence in Embedding Models

作者:
Jiaying Ye↗Samarth Rao↗Leo Carlin↗Kedar Chintalapati↗Saharsh Bhargava↗Rachit Jaiswal↗Michael Zhou↗Jared Darlington↗Jarod Alper↗Vasily Ilin↗Henry Kvinge↗

Because mathematics is highly abstract, a single statement can take very different forms depending on what subfield it is framed in. There are many examples where breakthroughs occurred after researchers discovered that a question had already been answered in a different field. At the same time, the growth of new resources related to formalization has increased the need for tools that enable efficient and reliable navigation between mathematical 'languages' (e.g., from Lean to natural language). In this paper, we investigate whether current embedding models capture mathematical equivalence. To do this, we introduce the Mathematically Equivalent but Lexically Different Pairs (MELD) Dataset, a collection of mathematically equivalent statements that are expressed in very different language. We show that current state-of-the-art embedding models tend to group statements by the terminology used to make them instead of the underlying math. Motivated by this, we propose a contrastive approach to learning embeddings of mathematical text that focuses on aligning informal statements with different formalizations. Our experiments demonstrate that this leads to improvements not only on informal-formal retrieval tasks but also on MELD, which only contains natural language statements.

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13.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Augmenting Imaginary-Time Evolution with Local Geometric Information

作者:
Carlos L. Benavides-Riveros↗Prachi Sharma↗Fedor \v{S}imkovic IV↗

arXiv:2606.23934v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Imaginary-time evolution (ITE) underpins a broad family of algorithms for ground-state preparation in quantum simulation and quantum many-body physics. In these methods, convergence is governed by the energy variance of the instantaneous state, causing the flow to approach the ground state only asymptotically. We introduce an augmented imaginary-time evolution (AITE) framework that replaces the standard gradient flow on the energy landscape with a geometrically informed descent along locally optimal directions, which are identified by exploiting the higher-order statistical structure of the instantaneous energy distribution. The resulting flow strictly outperforms standard ITE throughout the entire evolution and exhibits two qualitatively distinct regimes: a superlinear convergence regime, followed by an extinction regime in which the energy error vanishes exactly at a finite imaginary time, in sharp contrast to the asymptotic exponential decay of ITE. Standard ITE is recovered in the zero-skewness limit of AITE, implying that the acceleration extends naturally across the broader ITE algorithmic family.

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14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Enhancing Clinician Decision-Making via Uncertainty-Aware Multi-Expert Fusion for Stroke Rehabilitation

作者:
Tamim Ahmed↗Thanassis Rikakis↗

arXiv:2606.24960v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Tailoring stroke rehabilitation requires assessing how movements are organized, not merely if they succeed. Currently, this assessment is a rate-limiting bottleneck. Instruments like the Action Research Arm Test (ARAT) compress rich behavioral observations into single ordinal endpoints, discarding the movement-quality details that distinguish recovery from compensation. Automated alternatives typically chase accuracy on noisy, single-observer labels to output opaque scores - a technology-centric approach that rarely reaches clinical practice. To address this, we present xAARA: an engine designed to augment rather than replace clinical judgment. From multi-view video, xAARA returns ARAT assessments with calibrated uncertainty and explanations across task, movement-phase, and movement-quality levels. Treating clinical scoring as an ill-posed inference problem, xAARA composes 692 calibrated multimodal models via a Dynamic Bayesian Network with entropy-based gating. It qualifies results against clinical validity rules and defers low-confidence cases. In 105 stroke survivors (788 exercises), xAARA achieved 94.2% task accuracy (Cohen's kappa=0.934) and 81.3% movement-phase accuracy (kappa=0.727), reducing predictive uncertainty by 96.1% compared to single-clinician scoring. For subjective cases, it matched at least one rater 100% of the time and never returned out-of-range scores. Four independent clinicians validated the assessments and indicated willingness to adopt the system. We argue that principled uncertainty quantification and clinician-aligned explainability are the critical bridges moving automated assessment from technical demonstration to a deployable clinical tool.

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15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

AdaPLD: Adaptive Retrieval and Reuse for Efficient Model-Free Speculative Decoding

作者:
Runheng Liu↗Jincheng Xie↗Wen Hu↗Xingchen Xiao↗Heyan Huang↗

Speculative decoding accelerates generation by verifying multiple drafted tokens in a single target-model forward pass, reducing sequential decoding iterations. Model-free variants avoid auxiliary draft models by reusing text and model states already available during generation, but their speedup depends on the reliability of the constructed drafts. We identify two limitations of existing reuse-based methods: lexically anchored retrieval has limited recall under surface-form variation, and deterministic span copying can be brittle when the retrieved context does not uniquely determine the continuation. We propose AdaPLD, a training-free method that adaptively improves both retrieval and draft construction. AdaPLD preserves high-precision lexical reuse while using semantic similarity to recover additional reuse opportunities when lexical matching fails. It further constructs branched reuse hypotheses to account for continuation uncertainty, rather than relying on a single copied span. Across diverse benchmarks, AdaPLD reduces target-model forward passes and achieves up to $3.10\times$ decoding speedup.

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16.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-22

Daily briefing: First-ever ‘nuclear’ clocks put atomic clocks in the shade

作者:
Flora Graham↗

Two research teams have created a new, long-awaited type of timekeeper. Plus, how backlash has saved an ocean-monitoring network targeted by Trump and how our cultural heritage is put at risk by climate change. Two research teams have created a new, long-awaited type of timekeeper. Plus, how backlash has saved an ocean-monitoring network targeted by Trump and how our cultural heritage is put at risk by climate change.

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17.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Sample Path Properties of the Fractional Wiener–Weierstrass Bridge II

作者:
Alexander Schied↗Zhenyuan Zhang↗

arXiv:2606.11994v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Fractional Wiener–Weierstrass bridges are a class of Gaussian processes obtained by replacing trigonometric functions in the construction of classical Weierstrass functions by fractional Brownian bridges. A number of their sample path properties were derived in Schied–Zhang (2024,2026). The analysis in these papers left several open questions, most of which are addressed here. Specifically, we prove that, in the regime in which the Weierstrass mechanism dominates the underlying fractional Brownian bridge, the limiting $b$-adic variation coefficient has an absolutely continuous distribution and is therefore genuinely random. At the critical point between the two roughness regimes, we establish the power-variation formula and the critical $\Phi$-variation limit conjectured in Schied–Zhang (2024). Finally, we derive the Hausdorff dimension for the graphs of the sample paths by proving a conjecture from Schied–Zhang (2026) for the missing high-Hurst case.

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18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

CausalT5k: Diagnosing Refusal and Failure Modes in Trustworthy Causal Reasoning Across Causal Rungs

作者:
Longling Geng↗Andy Ouyang↗Theodore Wu↗Daphne Barretto↗Matthew John Hayes↗Rachael Cooper↗Yuqiao Zeng↗Sameer Vijay↗Gia Ancone↗Ankit Rai↗Matthew Wolfman↗Patrick Flanagan↗…

arXiv:2602.08939v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models increasingly produce fluent causal explanations, yet they often fail in ways aggregate accuracy cannot diagnose: confusing association with intervention, abandoning correct judgments under pressure, over-refusing valid claims, or answering when evidence is underdetermined. We introduce CTK, a diagnostic benchmark of 5,147 cases and growing, across 10 domains and all three levels of Pearl's Ladder of Causation. Unlike benchmarks that only score correctness, CTK reveals why a model failed by annotating causal rung, trap type, pressure sensitivity, refusal quality, and Utility-Safety tradeoffs. Its Sheep/Wolf taxonomy separates valid causal designs from inferential traps; paired neutral/pressure variants measure sycophantic drift through Bad Flip Rate; and Wise Refusal fields test whether a model identifies the missing information needed before endorsing a claim. CTK exposes failure modes hidden by aggregate accuracy: the Skepticism Trap, Rung Collapse under scaling, pressure-induced drift, Detection-Correction gaps, and counterfactual error modes. Rather than prescribing a correction method, it provides the diagnostic substrate for studying causal-reasoning failure profiles.

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19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

CausalRAG2: Hierarchical Causal Knowledge Graph Design for RAG

作者:
Nengbo Wang↗Tuo Liang↗Vikash Singh↗Chaoda Song↗Van Yang↗Yu Yin↗Jing Ma↗Jagdip Singh↗Vipin Chaudhary↗

arXiv:2602.05143v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Retrieval augmented generation (RAG) has enhanced large language models by enabling access to external knowledge, with graph-based RAG emerging as a powerful paradigm for structured retrieval and reasoning. However, existing graph-based methods often over-rely on entity-centric node matching and lack explicit causal modeling, leading to unfaithful or spurious answers. Prior attempts to incorporate causality are typically limited to local or single-document contexts and also suffer from information isolation that arises from modular graph structures, which hinders scalability and cross-module causal reasoning. To address these challenges, we propose CausalRAG2, a framework that rethinks knowledge organization for graph-based RAG through causal gating across hierarchical modules. CausalRAG2 explicitly models causal relationships to suppress spurious correlations while enabling scalable reasoning over large-scale knowledge graphs. We also introduce HolisQA, a benchmark for holistic comprehension beyond entity-centric matching. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalRAG2 consistently outperforms competitive graph-based RAG baselines across multiple datasets and evaluation metrics. Our work establishes a principled foundation for structured, scalable, and causally grounded RAG systems. Our code and HolisQA benchmark are available at https://github.com/Pwnb/CausalRAG2.

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20.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

Exploring Multi-Modal Large Language Models and Two-Stage Fine-Tuning for Fashion Image Retrieval

作者:
Nguyen Cao Hoang↗Hoang Bui Le↗Nam Vo Hoang↗Trung-Nghia Le↗

Composed image retrieval retrieves a target image using a composed query of a reference image and a modified text description. In the fashion domain, this task requires understanding subtle attribute variations such as color, pattern, and texture. However, existing approaches face limitations due to scarce annotated data and simplistic negative sampling. We propose a novel framework that integrates a multi-modal large language model (LLaVA) to generate attribute-aware triplets and introduces a two-stage fine-tuning strategy to enhance contrastive learning. We leverage pretrained vision-language models, such as CLIP-ViT/B32, to generate and concatenate sentence-level prompts with the relative caption and to scale the number of negatives using static representations. Experimental results demonstrate enhanced compositional reasoning and improved fine-grained retrieval behavior, underscoring the feasibility and potential of the proposed framework for fashion retrieval.

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21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

A unified complexity bound for logconcave sampling

作者:
Yunbum Kook↗Santosh S. Vempala↗

arXiv:2606.12694v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We give a simple, unified, and nearly tight bound for sampling arbitrary logconcave distributions from a warm start using the In-and-Out algorithm along with exponential lifting. The main new ingredient in the analysis is an improved bound on the Poincaré constant of a lifted distribution. As a consequence, the resulting convergence rate is nearly tight for both constrained settings (e.g., Gaussian restricted to a convex body) and well-conditioned settings (e.g., strongly logconcave and smooth densities).

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22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

A 3D Isovist World Model – Revealing a City's Unseen Geometry and Its Emergent Cross-City Signature

作者:
Xuhui Lin↗Stephen Law↗Nanjiang Chen↗Kunyao Li↗Tao Yang↗

arXiv:2606.03609v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Embodied agents that navigate cities rely on world models that predict how their surroundings will change as they move. But for navigation, what matters is not what the buildings look like; it is where the agent can go. Most world models nonetheless predict appearance, learning how a scene looks rather than the space an agent can move through. Those that do target geometry, such as bird's-eye-view occupancy grids, flatten the three-dimensional environment onto a ground plane, discarding the above-ground and multi-level structure that shapes real navigation. What is missing is a predictive target that captures the navigable geometry an agent actually traverses, without photometric entanglement and without collapsing the third dimension. Our key idea is to model the open volume between buildings, the negative space, encoded as a 3D isovist: a spherical visibility-depth map recording the distance to the nearest surface in every direction. We introduce an embodied world model that predicts the next isovist from a short history of past isovists and a movement action. The prediction is formulated as a depth residual so the decoder inherits sharp building edges, trained with self-rollout scheduled sampling to keep corrupted context on the geometry manifold, and equipped with a persistent latent bird's-eye-view spatial map for cross-path consistency. Our central finding is emergent and unexpected: a single city-blind model trained on Manhattan and Paris develops a cross-city spatial signature, with city identity linearly decodable from its temporal latents far above single-frame baselines, so the signature lives in the learned dynamics rather than in appearance. The representation is lightweight, interpretable, and reproducible, offering a geometric substrate for spatial reasoning in embodied AI, robotics, and urban analysis, released with an open dataset and pipeline.

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23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Zero-Shot Neural Priors for Generalizable Cross-Subject and Cross-Task EEG Decoding

作者:
Baimam Boukar Jean Jacques↗Brandone Fonya↗Nchofon Tagha Ghogomu↗Pauline Nyaboe↗Kipngeno Koech↗

arXiv:2606.23706v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The development of generalizable electroencephalography (EEG) decoding models is essential for robust brain-computer interfaces (BCI) and objective neural biomarkers in mental health. Conventional approaches have been hindered by poor cross-subject and cross-task generalization, owing to high inter-subject variability and non-stationary neural signals. We address this challenge with a zero-shot cross-subject decoding framework on the large-scale Healthy Brain Network dataset, benchmarking a convolutional neural network baseline, a hybrid LSTM, and a Transformer-based foundation model. To adapt the Transformer for regression while averting catastrophic forgetting, we propose a novel progressive unfreezing strategy. The baseline yielded an nRMSE of 0.9991, whereas our fine-tuned Transformer achieved 0.9799 on unseen subjects. This work advances scalable, calibration-free EEG decoding for computational psychiatry and behavioral prediction.

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24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Probabilistic Signature Inversion: Learning Conditional Distributions from Truncated Signatures

作者:
Junoh Kang↗Kiseop Lee↗Bohyung Han↗

arXiv:2606.15332v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The signature transform is a principled feature map for continuous-time paths, valued for its uniqueness and universality. Recovering a path from its truncated signature is, however, structurally ill-posed because the truncated signature map is not injective. We therefore reframe truncated signature inversion as a probabilistic problem – learning the conditional distribution of a path given its truncated signature – and adopt a signature-conditioned flow matching model as a practical estimator. This probabilistic formulation elucidates the fundamental difficulty of inversion: Bayes reconstruction error quantifies the irreducible uncertainty remaining after conditioning on a statistic. We derive the Bayes-optimal error under linear statistics, obtaining a closed form for log-GBM and numerically tractable formulas for log-fBM and OU, yielding a concrete theoretical baseline for model validation. This baseline upper-bounds the Bayes error under truncated-signature conditioning, since truncated signatures provide richer information than linear statistics. Experiments show that empirical reconstruction errors under linear-statistics conditioning faithfully align with the theory-derived baseline, while errors decrease when the statistic is replaced with truncated signatures. Moreover, generated paths faithfully recover the conditioning signature while preserving key distributional and temporal structures, indicating that the estimator is well-calibrated to the target conditional distribution. Together, these results establish a well-posed probabilistic framework for truncated-signature inversion, with applicability demonstrated on real financial data beyond the parametric process families covered by theory.

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25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Deep Learning and Elicitability for McKean-Vlasov FBSDEs With Common Noise

作者:
Felipe J. P. Antunes↗Yuri F. Saporito↗Sebastian Jaimungal↗

arXiv:2512.14967v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a novel numerical method for solving McKean–Vlasov forward–backward stochastic differential equations (MV–FBSDEs) with common noise, combining Picard iterations, elicitability and deep learning. The key innovation involves elicitability to derive a pathwise loss function, enabling efficient training of neural networks to approximate both the backward process and the conditional expectations arising from common noise, without requiring computationally expensive nested Monte Carlo simulations. The mean-field interaction term is parameterized via a recurrent neural network trained to minimize an elicitable score, while the backward process is approximated through a hybrid feedforward and recurrent network representing the decoupling field. We validate the algorithm on a systemic-risk inter-bank borrowing and lending model, where analytical solutions exist, demonstrating accurate recovery of the true solution. We further extend the model to quantile-mediated interactions, showcasing the flexibility of the elicitability framework beyond conditional means or moments. Finally, we apply the method to a non-stationary Aiyagari–Bewley–Huggett economic growth model with endogenous interest rates, illustrating its applicability to complex mean-field games without closed-form solutions.

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