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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Exit-and-Join Dynamics for Decentralized Coalition Formation

作者:
Quanyan Zhu↗

arXiv:2606.19683v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper studies coalition formation as a decentralized dynamical process driven by unilateral exit-and-join decisions. Agents evaluate local moves using the Aumann-Dreze value, so payoffs are computed within the agent's current coalition rather than through a globally negotiated coalition structure. The resulting model links cooperative payoff allocation with noncooperative best-response behavior: a terminal partition is precisely a coalition structure with no admissible, individually profitable exit-and-join deviation. We establish equilibrium characterizations, identify conditions under which the dynamics admit scalar Lyapunov or exact-potential representations, and analyze how switching and acceptance costs shape local stability. Numerical experiments test finite-time stabilization, cost sensitivity, and a special convex-game benchmark.

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02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

DCD: Domain-Oriented Design for Controlled Retrieval-Augmented Generation

作者:
Valerii Kovalskii↗Nikita Belov↗Nikita Miteyko↗Igor Reshetnikov↗Maksim Maksimov↗

arXiv:2604.07590v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) is widely used to ground large language models in external knowledge sources. However, when applied to heterogeneous corpora and multi-step queries, Naive RAG pipelines often degrade in quality due to flat knowledge representations and the absence of explicit workflows. In this work, we introduce DCD (Domain-Collection-Document), a domain-oriented design to structure knowledge and control query processing in RAG systems without modifying the underlying language model. The proposed approach relies on a hierarchical decomposition of the information space and multi-stage routing based on structured model outputs, enabling progressive restriction of both retrieval and generation scopes. The architecture is complemented by smart chunking, hybrid retrieval, and integrated validation and generation guardrail mechanisms. We describe the DCD architecture and workflow and discuss evaluation results on synthetic evaluation dataset, highlighting their impact on robustness, factual accuracy, and answer relevance in applied RAG scenarios.

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03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

CoCoGEC: Counterfactual Generation for Robust Grammatical Error Correction

作者:
Qianyu Wang↗Xiaoman Wang↗Yuanyuan Liang↗Xinyuan Li↗Yunshi Lan↗

Grammatical error correction (GEC) systems are usually trained and evaluated on GEC benchmarks, but their performance often drops sharply once the surrounding context is slightly perturbed or extended. This indicates that the existing GEC models usually fail to understand the error patterns in the varying contexts. In this paper, we thoroughly investigate the counterfactuals for GEC tasks, where the subtle changes to the contexts could lead to the label flipping issue. We propose CoCoGEC, a counterfactual generation framework that creates copies of training instances with error-irrelevant contexts altered. Our framework systematically generates counterfactuals by (1) generating intra- and inter-sentence counterfactuals that maintain the error patterns as well as syntax of the original instances by altering the word-level and sentence-level contexts; (2) revising the generated counterfactuals by selecting the instances with flipped labels and high GEC Mutual Information (MI) coefficient. Extensive experiments show that our method substantially improves the stability of GEC models, outperforming a set of data augmentation baselines. Particularly, it could achieve absolute F0.5 gains of +9.9, +11.3, and +20.8 points on the perturbed BEA-19*,CoNLL-14*, and TEM-8* data set.Our code is released at https://github.com/Quinnok/CoCoGEC

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04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

How Task Structure Limits Multi-Agent Success: An Information-Theoretic Analysis

作者:
Shi Pan↗Ming Luo↗

arXiv:2606.13733v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-agent systems (MAS) were expected to overcome the limitation of single-agent systems (SAS) through collaboration. However, under typicality conditions on the task's constraint graph and bounded inter-agent communication, we prove that the success probability of a MAS is closely tied to the connectivity of task constraints, where each agent has limited information-processing capacity. Specifically, the success probability decays exponentially with an information bottleneck that emerges from partitioning the task's constraint graph among agents. We define this quantity as the minimum cut cost $C_{\min}$ of the potential constraint graph of each task. This information-theoretic bound applies to both open systems with external feedback and closed systems without. We validate our theory on both synthetic experiments and real-world empirical data from SWE-bench submissions. From our framework, effective MAS design should incorporate task-inherent constraints alongside engineering optimization, and when $\Cmin$ is high, practitioners should restructure tasks rather than simply scaling agents or communication.

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05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Abstractions of Queries in Ontology-Based Data Access

作者:
Michel Lecl\`ere↗Marie-Laure Mugnier↗Guillaume P\'erution-Kihli↗

arXiv:2606.24618v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In ontology-based data access (OBDA), multiple data sources are integrated via mappings to an ontology. We consider an OBDA setting based on existential rules and the certain answer semantics. We address the recent issue of query abstraction, which consists of abstracting data queries by translating them to the ontology layer. Since a perfect abstraction may not exist, the notions of minimally complete and maximally sound abstractions have been introduced. We study abstractions within an extension of UCQs with a limited form of inequality and a special predicate marking database constants. While this extension does not lead to an increased complexity of the problems of interest, it is able to express minimally complete abstractions, hence perfect abstractions when they exist. We also characterize maximally sound abstractions by making a new connection with the notion of maximum recovery stemming from data exchange.

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06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

DTVEM-RE: A Hierarchical Random-Effects Extension of the Differential Time-Varying Effect Model for Person-Specific Multi-Lag Estimation in Intensive Longitudinal Data

作者:
Amartya Bhattacharya↗

arXiv:2606.14116v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Differential Time-Varying Effect Model (DTVEM) of Jacobson et al. (2019) is a popular tool for finding the best time lag in intensive longitudinal data, but it assumes everyone shares the same lag structure. The original authors named fixing this as future work, and it clashes with the premise of modern clinical research, which is that people differ. We present DTVEM-RE, an extension that lets each person have their own lag coefficients, with two versions of the confirmatory step: a discrete-time hierarchical Bayesian VAR in Stan, which pools across people and gives calibrated uncertainty, and a continuous-time per-person Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model in ctsem, which handles unevenly spaced beeps directly. We report four results. A simulation shows the Bayesian version recovers the between-person spread tau_a with bias below 0.01 and coverage of 90 to 93 percent. On the Fisher et al. (2017) EMA dataset (N=40), person-specific lag-1 effects vary by an order of magnitude across three mood items, the Bayesian and GAMM estimates agree closely (r=0.87 to 0.92), and DTVEM-RE gives the best one-step-ahead prediction among four discrete-time methods. A multi-lag version shows all nine tau_k values have credible intervals excluding zero, and the lag where people differ most changes across items, something lag-1-only methods like mlVAR cannot detect. Finally, the two versions agree almost exactly on person-specific lag-1 estimates (r >= 0.995), differing only as shrinkage predicts. DTVEM-RE is, to our knowledge, the first person-specific implementation of DTVEM-style lag detection, and it contains standard DTVEM as a special case.

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07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Evaluating LLMs on Real-World Software Performance Optimization

作者:
Ezgi Sar{\i}kayak↗Wenchao Gu↗Hesham Ghonim↗Chunyang Chen↗

Software performance optimization is a notoriously complex and manual task. Despite the growing use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for code refinement, we still lack benchmarks that capture how optimization actually happens in real-world codebases. Existing frameworks often oversimplify the problem by focusing on isolated functions or a single performance metric, missing the critical trade-offs between execution time and memory footprint, the inherent noise of the measurement environment, and the variability introduced by different input data and execution conditions. We address this by introducing SWE-Pro, a repository-level benchmark derived from 102 expert-written optimizations from open-source projects. Unlike previous benchmarks, SWE-Pro pairs each task with parameterized tests to evaluate runtime, peak memory, and Time-Weighted Memory Usage (TWMU) across varying input data and execution conditions under noise-aware measurement conditions. Our evaluation shows that current LLMs struggle significantly: runtime gains are negligible, and memory optimizations are nearly non-existent. This stands in sharp contrast to expert implementations, which achieve an aggregate speedup of 15.5x and peak memory reduction of 171.3x over benchmark tasks. Expert-written improvements are observed in 91.2% of tasks for runtime and 65.7% for peak memory. Our findings expose a substantial gap between current LLM capabilities and the demands of expert-level engineering.

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08.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

Resolving the Edge of a Quantum Pyramid

作者:
Alvan Arulandu↗

arXiv:2606.14698v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Standing on the shoulders of giants, we resolve the quantum pyramids conjecture, confirming the globally information-optimal measurement for an ensemble of equiangular equiprobable pure states, as conjectured by Englert and \v{R}eháček (arXiv:0905.0510). We do so by proving the remaining entropy inequalities of Holevo and Utkin (arXiv:2506.06700), which certify optimality for obtuse and flat pyramids. For obtuse pyramids, our key contribution is a rigorous proof that local minimizers of the corresponding entropy inequality cannot have three distinct coordinate values. We show that eliminating this family can be reduced to a neat algebraic reciprocal inequality relating branches of the Lambert $W$ function, which may be of independent interest. For flat pyramids, we prove a tight $\ell^p$ inequality for zero-sum vectors that was recently conjectured, proved analytically in dimension $d=3$, and computationally verified for $d\leq 200$ by Holevo and Utkin (arXiv:2603.24017). We prove this bound for all $d\geq 2$ via a technique in symmetric inequalities known as the equal variables method.

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09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Modeling Sarcastic Speech: Semantic and Prosodic Cues in a Speech Synthesis Framework

作者:
Zhu Li↗Yuqing Zhang↗Xiyuan Gao↗Shekhar Nayak↗Matt Coler↗

Sarcasm is a pragmatic phenomenon in which speakers convey meanings that diverge from literal content, relying on an interaction between semantics and prosodic expression. However, how these cues jointly contribute to the recognition of sarcasm remains poorly understood. We propose a computational framework that models sarcasm as the integration of semantic interpretation and prosodic realization. Semantic cues are derived from an LLaMA 3 model fine-tuned to capture discourse-level markers of sarcastic intent, while prosodic cues are extracted through semantically aligned utterances drawn from a database of sarcastic speech, providing prosodic exemplars of sarcastic delivery. Using a speech synthesis testbed, perceptual evaluations show that semantic and prosodic cues enhance perceived sarcasm, with the combined system achieving the best downstream F1 while maintaining high subjective sarcasm ratings. These findings highlight the complementary roles of semantics and prosody in pragmatic interpretation and illustrate how modeling can shed light on the mechanisms underlying sarcastic communication.

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10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

OpenTie: Open-vocabulary Sequential Rebar Tying System

作者:
Sai Fan↗Mingze Liu↗Haozhen Li↗Haobo Liang↗Yixing Yuan↗Yanke Wang↗

Robotic practices on the construction site emerge as an attention-attracting manner owing to their capability of tackling complex challenges, especially in the rebar-involved scenarios. Most of existing products and research are mainly focused on the collection of large amounts of data with model training demands. To fulfill this gap, we propose OpenTie, a 3D training-free rebar tying framework utilizing a RGB-to-point-cloud generation and an open-vocabulary rebar detection on the real-world test. We implement the OpenTie via a robotic arm with a binocular camera and guarantee a high accuracy by applying the prompt-based object detection method on the image filtered by our proposed post-processing procedure for the image-to-point-cloud generation framework. Our pipeline requires no training efforts and outperforms the training-based object detection, i.e., YOLO-based method, with the verification on the real-world sequential rebar tying test. The system is flexible for horizontal and vertical rebar tying tasks and holds the potential application to the real construction site with possibility of commercialization.

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11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Efficiently Representing Algorithms With Chain-of-Thought Transformers

作者:
Yanhong Li↗Anej Svete↗Ashish Sabharwal↗William Merrill↗

The increasing popularity of reasoning models – language models that output a series of reasoning or thought tokens before producing an answer – is justified, in part, by theoretical results showing that chain-of-thought (CoT) transformers can simulate Turing machines, and thus perform arbitrary computation. However, the Turing machine, while suitable for complexity-theoretic analysis, is not convenient, intuitive, or efficient for discussing algorithms. Algorithms are typically designed and analyzed at a higher level of abstraction, captured by the Word RAM model with random-access memory and unit-cost operations on $\bigO(\log n)$-bit words. As a result, Word RAM algorithms can be substantially more efficient than their Turing machine counterparts, raising the question: Can CoT transformers efficiently simulate Word RAM algorithms? For instance, can they sort $n$ items in $\bigO(n \log n)$ steps or run Dijkstra's algorithm in $\bigO(E + V \log V)$ steps? We answer affirmatively, up to poly-logarithmic overhead. We first establish this for finite-precision transformers with poly-logarithmic width and rightmost unique hard attention, then strengthen the result to two more practical settings with finite width and log-precision: continuous CoT, where reasoning takes the form of vectors rather than tokens, and a hybrid architecture in which transformer layers sit atop a recurrent (linear RNN) layer. In all three cases, we find that CoT can efficiently simulate any Word RAM algorithm with only a poly-logarithmic overhead in $n$. This overhead reduces to log-square when the Word RAM has a ``flat'' instruction set, and only logarithmic for multiplication-free flat instructions – in stark contrast to known CoT simulations of Turing machines, which require quadratic overhead over Word RAM.

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12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Learn from Your Mistakes: Self-Correcting Masked Diffusion Models

作者:
Yair Schiff↗Omer Belhasin↗Roy Uziel↗Guanghan Wang↗Marianne Arriola↗Gilad Turok↗Ran Zilberstein↗Michael Elad↗Volodymyr Kuleshov↗

arXiv:2602.11590v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models, enabling parallel token generation while achieving competitive performance. Despite these advantages, MDMs face a fundamental limitation: once tokens are unmasked, they remain fixed, leading to error accumulation and ultimately degrading sample quality. We address this by proposing a framework that trains a model to perform both unmasking and correction. By reusing outputs from the MDM denoising network as inputs for corrector training, we train a model to recover from potential mistakes. During generation we apply additional corrective refinement steps between unmasking ones in order to change decoded tokens and improve outputs. We name our training and sampling method Progressive Self-Correction (ProSeCo) for its unique ability to iteratively refine an entire sequence, including already generated tokens. We conduct extensive experimental validation across multiple conditional and unconditional tasks, demonstrating that \method~yields better quality-efficiency trade-offs (up to ~4x faster sampling) and enables inference-time compute scaling to further increase sample quality beyond standard MDMs (up to ~1.2x improvement on benchmarks).

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13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Improved Baselines with Representation Autoencoders

作者:
Jaskirat Singh↗Boyang Zheng↗Zongze Wu↗Richard Zhang↗Eli Shechtman↗Saining Xie↗

Representation Autoencoders (RAE) replace traditional VAE with pretrained vision encoders. In this paper, we systematically investigate several design choices and find three insights which simplify and improve RAE. First, we study a generalized formulation where the representation is defined as sum of the last k encoder layers rather than solely the final layer. This simple change greatly improves reconstruction without encoder finetuning or specialized data (e.g., text, faces). Second, we study the prevalent assumption that RAE (using pretrained representation as encoder) replaces representation alignment (REPA), which distills the same representation to intermediate layers instead. Through large-scale empirical analysis, we uncover a surprising finding: RAE and REPA exhibit complementary working mechanisms, allowing the same representation to be used as both encoder and target for intermediate diffusion layers. Finally, the original RAE struggles with classifier-free guidance (CFG) and requires training a second, weaker diffusion model for AutoGuidance (AG). We show that REPA itself can be viewed as x-prediction in RAE latent space. By simply re-parameterizing the output of the DiT model, it can provide guidance for "free". Overall, RAEv2 leads to more than 10x faster convergence over the original RAE, achieving a state-of-the-art gFID of 1.06 in just 80 epochs on ImageNet-256. On FDr6, RAEv2 achieves a state-of-the-art 2.17 at just 80 epochs compared to the previous best 3.26 (800 epochs) without any post-training. This motivates EPFID@k (epochs to reach unguided gFID < k) as a measure of training efficiency. RAEv2 attains an EPFID@2 of 35 epochs, versus 177 for the original RAE. We also validate our approach across diverse settings for text-to-image generation and navigation world models, showing consistent improvements. The code is available at https://raev2.github.io.

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14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Zero-source LLM Hallucination Detection with Human-like Criteria Probing

作者:
Jiahao Yang↗Shuhai Zhang↗Hailong Kang↗Feng Liu↗Qi Chen↗Mingkui Tan↗

Large language models (LLMs) often hallucinate by generating factually incorrect or unfaithful content, posing significant risks to their safe use. Detecting such hallucinations is particularly challenging under the zero-source constraint, where no model internals or external references are available, and detection must rely solely on the textual query-answer pair. In this paper, we propose Human-like Criteria Probing for Hallucination Detection (HCPD), a paradigm that emulates the multi-faceted reasoning of human evaluators. Its core is a Human-like Criteria Probing (HCP) mechanism, in which a LLM agent adaptively decomposes its judgment into a weighted set of interpretable criteria and aggregates criterion-specific scores into a final truthfulness measure. To achieve this adaptive capability, we introduce a reward-based alignment scheme using only weak supervision from semantic consistency. At inference, we employ a multi-sampling aggregation strategy to ensure robust decisions while preserving full interpretability. We further provide theoretical analysis supporting the reliability of our approach. Extensive experiments show that HCPD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, offering an effective and explainable solution for zero-source hallucination detection. Code is available at https://github.com/TRISKEL10N/HCPD.

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15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Long-Term Simulation Exposes Cognitive-Developmental Risks in AI Companions

作者:
Kaicheng Shen↗Lingyu Li↗Wen Wu↗Yan Teng↗Liang He↗Yingchun Wang↗

arXiv:2606.25396v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI companions powered by large language models increasingly interact with cognition-developing users, including children and adolescents, creating risks that may accumulate over time. Existing safety evaluations largely rely on single-turn or short-session tests, which cannot capture risks that emerge only through prolonged interaction. To address this gap, we propose TSJ (Theater-Stage-Judge), a longitudinal framework combining persona-driven user simulation, dynamic psychological-state updating and retrospective evaluation. We evaluate six mainstream models across four developmental stages, twenty-four risk dimensions and three psychological-vulnerability personas, covering 12,960 simulated person-day interactions. TSJ shows that short-horizon testing systematically underestimates developmental risks, for which TSJ yields a stable risk estimate only after 140 turns within prolonged simulated relationships. Applying TSJ further identifies early childhood and emerging adulthood as the most vulnerable stages, with cognitive trust and emotional dependency as the weakest domains. TSJ provides a scalable methodology for longitudinal cognitive developmental risk evaluation in AI companion systems.

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17.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Large deviation principle for friendship-biases in Galton–Watson trees

作者:
Frank den Hollander↗Azadeh Parvaneh↗

arXiv:2606.17381v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper we consider the friendship-bias of the vertices in an infinite rooted Galton–Watson tree. The friendship-bias of a vertex is the difference between the average degree of the neighbours of the vertex and the degree of the vertex itself. A vertex is said to be of type $\chi \in S$, with $S = \{-,0,+\}$, when its friendship-bias is, respectively, strictly negative, zero or strictly positive. We consider the fractions $f_l^\chi$ of vertices of type $\chi \in S$ along a random downward path up to branching depth $l \in \mathbb{N}$ and derive a large deviation principle (LDP) for the triple $(f_l^\chi)_{\chi \in S}$ as $l\to\infty$. The branching depth of a vertex counts the number of branchings that occur along the path that connects the vertex to the root of the tree. The rate in the LDP is $l$, while the rate function in the LDP is identified in terms of a variational formula minimising a relative entropy under a linear constraint. We focus on the case of binary branching, for which the rate function is already quite involved. We identify the qualitative properties of the rate function and show how it can be computed numerically. We briefly indicate how to proceed for more general branching and for vertex types along a tree consisting of a finite number of random downward paths. Our paper is the first to consider large deviations of vertex types.

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18.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-24

Detection of anisotropic cosmic structures on a gigaparsec scale

作者:
Francesco Sylos Labini↗

Galaxy redshift surveys map the cosmic web and provide a key observational test of whether the Universe becomes statistically homogeneous and isotropic on sufficiently large scales, as assumed by the cosmological principle underpinning the standard cosmological model1. In this framework, beyond the nonlinear regime of structure formation, inhomogeneous and anisotropic features are expected to fade rapidly, reflecting the near-isotropic primordial density field and its subsequent gravitational evolution. Although supported by the small amplitude of cosmic microwave background anisotropies2, this view is increasingly challenged by the complex network of large-scale structures and voids in the galaxy distribution3–6, as well as by independent probes reporting possible large-scale deviations from statistical homogeneity7 and isotropy8,9. Here we show that the galaxy distribution exhibits persistent anisotropic structures extending to scales on the order of one gigaparsec. Using the Angular Distribution of Pairwise Distances (ADPD)10, a parameter-free statistic that measures directional correlations, we detect anisotropy signals exceeding those in isotropic controls and geometry-matched ΛCDM mock catalogues with conservative significance greater than 3σ. These results provide direct evidence that directional coherence persists to larger scales than predicted in the standard framework, challenging the assumption of large-scale isotropy. They call for a reassessment of how homogeneity and isotropy are realized in the observed Universe and motivate new tests of cosmological models based on directional statistics. Using the parameter-free Angular Distribution of Pairwise Distances for measuring directional correlations, evidence is found&nbsp;for coherent anisotropic structures extending over gigaparsec scales, challenging the assumption that the Universe becomes statistically isotropic on sufficiently large scales.

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19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Towards One-for-All Anomaly Detection for Tabular Data

作者:
Shiyuan Li↗Yixin Liu↗Yu Zheng↗Xiaofeng Cao↗Shirui Pan↗Heng Tao Shen↗

arXiv:2603.14407v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Tabular anomaly detection (TAD) aims to identify samples that deviate from the majority in tabular data and is critical in many real-world applications. However, existing methods follow a ``one model for one dataset (OFO)'' paradigm, which relies on dataset-specific training and thus incurs high computational cost and yields limited generalization to unseen domains. To address these limitations, we propose OFA-TAD, a generalist one-for-all (OFA) TAD framework that only requires one-time training on multiple source datasets and can generalize to unseen datasets from diverse domains on-the-fly. To realize one-for-all tabular anomaly detection, OFA-TAD extracts neighbor-distance patterns as transferable cues, and introduces multi-view neighbor-distance representations from multiple transformation-induced metric spaces to mitigate the transformation sensitivity of distance profiles. To adaptively combine multi-view distance evidence, a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) scoring network is employed for view-specific anomaly scoring and entropy-regularized gated fusion, with a multi-strategy anomaly synthesis mechanism to support training under the one-class constraint. Extensive experiments on 34 datasets from 14 domains demonstrate that OFA-TAD achieves superior anomaly detection performance and strong cross-domain generalizability under the strict OFA setting. The source code is available at https://github.com/Shiy-Li/OFA-TAD.

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20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Building Social World Models with Large Language Models

作者:
Haofei Yu↗Yining Zhao↗Guanyu Lin↗Jiaxuan You↗

Understanding and predicting how social beliefs evolve in response to events – from policy changes to scientific breakthroughs – remains a fundamental challenge in social science. Given LLMs' commonsense knowledge and social intelligence, we ask: Can LLMs model the dynamics of social beliefs following social events? In this work, we introduce the concept of the Social World Model (SWM), a general framework designed to capture how social beliefs evolve in response to major events. SWM learns state-transition functions for social beliefs by mining temporal patterns in social data and optimizing the evidence lower bound, without the need for explicit human annotations linking events to belief shifts, or for expensive census data. To evaluate SWM, we introduce a benchmark, SWM-bench, derived from real-world prediction markets, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket. SWM-bench includes over 12k data points for social belief prediction tasks spanning diverse domains such as politics, finance, and cryptocurrency. Our experimental results show that SWM significantly outperforms time-series foundation models, achieving state-of-the-art results on Kalshi data and demonstrating competitive performance on Polymarket data, while offering interpretable insights into the underlying mechanisms of social belief dynamics.

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21.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

AI-assisted continuous-time modelling of metastatic breast cancer reveals subtype-specific spatiotemporal organ interactions

作者:
Vaisband↗Rinnerthaler↗Gampenrieder↗S. P↗Binder↗Singer↗C. F↗Sliwa↗Roitner↗Hager↗Pichler↗Udovica↗…

Metastatic breast cancer is one of the leading causes of premature mortality among women worldwide. A major barrier to optimal care is the marked heterogeneity in both the temporal dynamics of metastatic spread and the organ-specific spatial distribution of metastases. Existing analyses do not adequately capture this complexity, as they either neglect temporal dependencies or assume independence between metastasic sites. As a result, it remains unclear how established metastases influence subsequent organ-specific dissemination. We address this question using patient-level longitudinal trajectories from a large multicentre real-world metastatic breast cancer registry, combined with an AI-assisted disease-progression modelling framework based on continuous-time Markov chains that represent combinations of metastatic sites and the non-uniform and practice-driven timing of radiologic response assessments, as encountered in routine clinical care. We present a stochastic model determined by progression rates, which are parameterised to capture baseline organ-specific transition risks, patient-level covariates, and pairwise inter-organ interaction effects. High-dimensional treatment information is incorporated using an large language model based encoding. We find that metastatic spread follows non-independent, subtype-specific spatiotemporal patterns, with subtype-specific inter-organ interaction patterns that shape progression. Visceral metastases, particularly lung and liver metastasis, are associated with an increased hazard of subsequent brain metastasis, with effects varying across hormone receptor-positive, HER2-positive, and triple-negative subtypes. Together, these findings define a clinically relevant spatiotemporal architecture of metastatic progression in breast cancer. This framework enables refined mechanism-informed risk stratification and provides a data-driven rationale for targeted and risk-adapted – rather than symptom-triggered – surveillance strategies.

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22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

An integrated AI-microfluidic platform reveals the broad persistence and developmental potential of rare sperm in non-obstructive azoospermia

作者:
Chen↗Xiao↗Wang↗Song↗Liu↗Shen↗Guo↗Li↗Zhao↗Mo↗Huang↗Xu↗…

Non-obstructive azoospermia (NOA) represents the most severe form of male infertility, severely limiting a patient's prospects for biological fatherhood when surgical retrieval fails. However, the true biological limits of NOA remain obscured by the inherent limitations of conventional gamete recovery protocols: standard centrifugation frequently causes substantial cell loss, masking extremely rare sperm, while surgical interventions are constrained by spatial sampling biases. Here we report SpermSeek, an integrated AI-guided microfluidic platform for real-time, non-destructive isolation of single sperm directly from semen. Operating at scalable throughput (0.36 mL/h), the system achieves 98.3% detection precision and a 95.5% target encapsulation efficiency, suppressing background debris. In a 59-patient NOA cohort, SpermSeek detected morphologically identifiable sperm in 64.4% (38/59) of cases, spanning diverse genetic etiologies, including AZFb/c microdeletions, and severe histopathological phenotypes, such as Sertoli-cell-only syndrome (SCOS). Notably, among a sub-cohort of 41 patients who remained consistently sperm-negative despite prior medical or micro-TESE interventions, our platform identified gametes in 53.7% (22/41) of these cases. Comprehensive safety profiling in healthy human donors and wild-type mice confirmed that processed sperm retain high DNA integrity and epigenomic concordance (r=0.98), supporting transgenerational developmental stability in mice. Furthermore, in a 26-patient validation cohort, SpermSeek recovered rare sperm in 11 cases. Utilizing gametes from a subset (n=5), we demonstrated their capacity to support early human embryogenesis, yielding high-quality cleavage-stage embryos with confirmed genomic euploidy. This work establishes a highly sensitive framework for re-examining the biological limits of human spermatogenesis, laying the foundation to expand autologous reproductive options for patients refractory to conventional retrieval protocols.

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23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Scratched Lenses, Shifted Depth: Passive Camera-Side Optical Attacks

作者:
Qinlin He↗Zeming Zhuang↗Yongji Wu↗Lan Zhang↗Xiaoyong↗Yuan↗

Physical adversarial attacks on vision systems are typically studied through scene manipulation, such as adversarial patches or projections, where the adversary controls what the camera observes. Camera-side attacks using stickers or auxiliary optics have also been explored, but they treat attacks as image-space perturbations from designed patterns. This misses how physical imperfections interact with scene-dependent lighting and optics. We identify a threat: passive lens-side damage that is persistent yet trigger-conditioned, producing optical artifacts that bias geometric inference under particular visual conditions. We instantiate this threat through Scratch-induced Lens Adversarial Streak Hijacking SLASH, a physical-world attack caused by small scratches on a camera lens or protective cover. Scratches interact with bright light sources and specular reflections to create structured streak artifacts that distort depth cues. Since the perturbation is fixed in the optical path but triggered by the scene, it is both persistent and selective. We formulate the attack in optical space, model the scratch pattern as a trigger-conditioned optical channel, and optimize one fixed configuration across diverse viewing conditions. We evaluate SLASH on monocular depth estimation and monocular 3D object detection in digital and real-world settings. Under the fixed-scratch constraint, directional depth shifts reach up to 32% relative error for monocular depth estimation, with consistent effects on monocular 3D object detection. Physical experiments confirm transfer to real camera recordings, inducing depth shifts above the model's natural prediction baseline. These findings reveal an attack surface where benign-looking hardware imperfections act as latent, scene-triggered adversarial mechanisms, challenging assumptions about physical robustness and motivating defenses for secure vision systems.

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24.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

A Systematic Review of Sex Differences in Postoperative Nausea and Vomiting

作者:
Huang↗S. F↗Kolugala↗Druskovich↗Law↗Wells↗Varghese↗Wise↗M. R↗O'Grady↗

Background: Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) is a common consequence of anaesthesia, affecting up to 30% of postoperative patients. Female sex is one of the strongest risk factors for PONV, yet no dedicated analysis has examined how this association varies across surgical settings and timepoints. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to quantify sex differences in PONV incidence across different surgical contexts. Methods: A systematic search was conducted using PRISMA guidelines across Medline and Embase from inception to September 1, 2025. Eligible studies were observational cohort studies (n[&ge;]500) of adult patients that conducted multivariate regression analyses including sex as a variable. Two reviewers independently screened, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias using ROBINS-E. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed. Subgroup analyses and multiple sensitivity analyses were completed. Results: From 4620 identified studies, 23 met the inclusion criteria, including 462,828 patients across various surgical settings and specialties (52% female). The pooled incidence of PONV was 21% (95% CI[16-27%]), with high heterogeneity (I2=99.9%). Meta-analysis confirmed females had a higher risk of developing PONV compared to males (pooled OR=2.40, 95% CI[2.06-2.79], I2=93.1%, p

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25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Self-Evolving Visual Questioner

作者:
Yijun Liang↗Hengguang Zhou↗Ming Li↗Lichen Li↗Cho-Jui Hsieh↗Tianyi Zhou↗

Vision-language models (VLMs) are typically trained as passive answerers, while their ability to actively ask diverse, non-trivial, visual-centric and grounded questions remains underexplored. Existing visual questioners' performance is bottlenecked by the availability of high-quality training data or the cost of curating them. We show that a VLM can continuously improve itself as a visual questioner without any external supervision. We propose a self-evolving framework that uses a VLM itself as both a proposer and a filter to produce harder, more informative, and visual-centric questions, while maintaining their exploration diversity to avoid training collapse. These questions are then used to train the VLM in both questioner and answerer modes. To evaluate the questioner, we introduce an agentic protocol that assesses questions along perception, reasoning, and diversity dimensions. Experiments across various backbone VLMs show that our method substantially enhances the quality and substantially expands the difficulty boundary of autonomous question generation. Under the same budget, our self-supervision is more effective than training on the static source data. Moreover, the self-evolving questioner remains a competitive or even better answerer.

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