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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

On Pitfalls of $RemOve-And-Retrain$: Data Processing Inequality Perspective

The RemOve-And-Retrain (ROAR) benchmark is widely used to evaluate feature attribution methods, yet its validity remains underexplored from an information-theoretic perspective. We show that model- and data-agnostic post-processing of attribution maps (transformations that, by the data processing inequality, cannot add information about the decision function) can often improve ROAR scores. This means that an improved ROAR ranking is not, by itself, evidence that an attribution map carries more information about the model. We trace this failure mode to a bias toward spatially blurry masks. Experiments on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and CUB-200 show a consistent association between blurriness and ROAR performance, a pattern that also appears in the ROAD variant. We provide guidelines for more cautious removal-based benchmarking, with implications for validating mechanistic understanding of neural network internals.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Mirror Descent Beyond Euclidean Stability: An Exponential Separation in Initialization Sensitivity

arXiv:2606.11431v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mirror Descent (MD) extends Gradient Descent (GD) beyond Euclidean geometry and has recently reappeared as a lens for KL-regularized policy optimization in reinforcement learning and LLM post-training. This raises a basic robustness question, crucial to reproducibility and reliability: how sensitive are MD dynamics to their inputs? We focus on initialization, often itself a pretrained or previously aligned model. Quadratic-regularized MD, including GD and Mahalanobis geometries, is well-known to be stable for convex smooth objectives. We show a sharp contrast: once the regularizer is non-quadratic, MD can be exponentially more sensitive to initialization than GD, even with a well-conditioned regularizer in Euclidean norm. We give a three-dimensional construction with a convex, smooth objective and a strongly convex, smooth, well-conditioned regularizer where an initial $\varepsilon$ perturbation is quickly amplified to $\min\{polylog^{-1}(1/\varepsilon), \varepsilon e^{\Omega(\eta T)}\}$ after $T$ iterations of MD with step size $\eta$. For canonical KL-regularized MD on the simplex, we show that even linear objectives can amplify an initial $\varepsilon$ perturbation exponentially fast in high-dimensional or near-boundary regimes. Finally, we show that adding a Bregman regularization term toward an anchor point can stabilize the dynamics while largely preserving the optimization guarantees, and that the choice of anchor is crucial: anchoring at the initialization only partially mitigates the instability, whereas anchoring at a fixed point yields a more stable mechanism.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Evolving Agents in the Dark: Retrospective Harness Optimization via Self-Preference

AI agents rely on a harness of skills, tools, and workflows to solve complex problems. Continually improving this harness is essential for adapting to new tasks. However, existing optimization methods typically require ground-truth validation sets, yet such labeled data is difficult to acquire in practical deployment settings. To address this problem, we introduce Retrospective Harness Optimization (RHO), a self-supervised method that optimizes the agent harness using only past trajectories. Specifically, RHO selects a diverse coreset of challenging tasks from past trajectories and re-solves them in parallel. The agent analyzes these rollouts using self-validation and self-consistency, then generates candidate harness updates and selects the most effective one by its own pairwise self-preference. We evaluate RHO across three diverse domains, spanning software engineering, technical work, and knowledge work. Notably, a single optimization round improves the pass rate on SWE-Bench Pro from 59% to 78% without any external grading. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates that RHO effectively targets prior failure modes. As a result, the optimized harness alters the agent's behavior patterns and sustains higher accuracy during long-horizon sessions.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Overcoming Rank Collapse in Feedback Alignment

arXiv:2606.11123v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Backpropagation (BP) is widely viewed as biologically implausible, in part because it requires feedback weights to be the transpose of forward weights for error propagation. Interestingly, when training a network with fixed random feedback weights to circumvent this issue, learning aligns the forward weights with the feedback weights, leading the backpropagated error signal to become an approximation of the standard gradient used by BP. This process, called Feedback Alignment (FA), occurs in MLPs and very shallow CNNs but does not scale well to deeper architectures. In this work, we first investigated differences between BP and FA models, trained on CIFAR10, specifically focusing on the effective rank of the signal. We found that the FA error has a considerably lower rank and hence is constrained to a lower-dimensional subspace compared to BP, limiting exploration of the parameter space. Motivated by this observation, we evaluated two mechanisms for increasing the effective dimensionality of FA: Muon, an optimiser that orthogonalises weight updates; and hidden activity normalisation, which promotes activation orthogonality. Across larger architectures and benchmarks, we find that these methods consistently improve over FA baselines, for example, on CIFAR100 with a Resnet-18, accuracy increases by 9 percentage points. Our results identify low-dimensional gradient dynamics as a key obstacle to scaling FA and suggest that inducing higher-dimensional update geometry is a promising route toward scaling alternatives to backpropagation.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

CRC-Screen: Certified DNA-Synthesis Hazard Screening Under Taxonomic Shift

作者:

arXiv:2605.00074v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: DNA-synthesis providers screen incoming orders by searching the requested sequence against curated hazard lists. We show that this baseline collapses to a 100% false-flag rate when the hazardous sequence comes from a taxonomic family absent from the reference set: under Conformal Risk Control's certified miss-rate constraint, a low-discrimination signal forces the threshold below the entire test-benign mass. We compose three signals derived from a synthesis order's public annotation: $k$-mer Jaccard similarity to known toxins, the trimmed-mean score of a five-LLM judge panel, and cosine similarity to clustered embedding centroids. Fused under a monotone logistic aggregator and calibrated by Conformal Risk Control, the resulting screener certifies $\mathbb{E}[\mathrm{FNR}] \le \alpha + \mathrm{TV}$, where the additive term is the calibration-to-test distribution shift under family holdout (a certified ceiling of 24-49% across folds). Across ten leave-one-taxonomic-family-out folds at $\alpha=0.05$ on UniProt KW-0800 reviewed toxins, the calibrated screener achieves 0% empirical test miss rate on every fold and 0% test false-flag rate on nine of ten folds. The bound's finite-sample slack $1/(n_{\mathrm{cal}}+1)$ caps the certifiable miss rate at 1.77% on our 200-hazard subsample; reaching procurement-grade $\alpha=10^{-3}$ requires an $18\times$ larger calibration set, which the full reviewed UniProt KW-0800 corpus is large enough to deliver. The binding constraint on certifiable DNA-synthesis screening is calibration data, not algorithms. Code: https://github.com/najmulhasan-code/crc-screen

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

OmniBioTwin: A System-of-Twinned-Systems Framework for Health Digital Twins

arXiv:2606.11264v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Health digital twins (HDTs) promise patient-specific modeling and decision support but current approaches remain structurally fragmented: monolithic models that address a single organ or task lack cross-scale fidelity, while system-level twins lack generalizable architectural frameworks. We propose OmniBioTwin, a System-of-Twinned-Systems (SoTS) framework that organizes HDTs as modular computational entities coupled through explicit interaction operators within a multi-layer network architecture. The framework comprises seven coordinated layers - spanning data integration, autonomous twin modeling, cross-scale coupling, temporal synchronization, and human-in-the-loop decision support. We demonstrate OmniBioTwin by instantiating a multiscale twin for glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) signaling pathways in Alzheimer's disease, illustrating how molecular, cellular, and organ-level twins can be composed and coupled within a unified system.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

A Survey on 3D Gaussian Splatting Applications: Segmentation, Editing, and Generation

In the context of novel view synthesis, 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has recently emerged as an efficient and competitive counterpart to Neural Radiance Field (NeRF), enabling high-fidelity photorealistic rendering in real time. Beyond novel view synthesis, the explicit and compact nature of 3DGS enables a wide range of downstream applications that require geometric and semantic understanding. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of recent progress in 3DGS applications. It first reviews the reconstruction preliminaries of 3DGS, followed by the problem formulation, 2D foundation models, and related NeRF-based research areas that inform downstream 3DGS applications. We then categorize 3DGS applications into three foundational tasks: segmentation, editing, and generation, alongside additional functional applications built upon or tightly coupled with these foundational capabilities. For each, we summarize representative methods, supervision strategies, and learning paradigms, highlighting shared design principles and emerging trends. Commonly used datasets and evaluation protocols are also summarized, along with comparative analyses of recent methods across public benchmarks. To support ongoing research and development, a continually updated repository of papers, code, and resources is maintained at https://github.com/heshuting555/Awesome-3DGS-Applications.

08.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Morphology-resolved scrambling in a chaotic quantum billiard

arXiv:2606.16865v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Chaotic quantum systems can retain spatial memory through scarred eigenstates, but whether these static structures control scrambling remains unclear. This work establishes a morphology-resolved connection between scarred eigenstates and eigenstate-resolved OTOCs in a peanut-shaped quantum billiard. Scalar localisation diagnostics, including differential entropy and continuum participation ratios, detect anomalous concentration but discard spatial architecture. A scale-normalised density overlap, in contrast, directly compares probability density profiles, revealing families of orthogonal eigenstates with nearly identical spatial morphology. Comparing the complete OTOC time traces of these orthogonal eigenstates reveals that morphological recurrence has dynamical content: moderate density overlap yields no universal prediction, whereas strongly recurring morphologies exhibit nearly identical OTOC growth and saturation. Thus, scarred structures act as spatial templates for operator growth, not merely static violations of ergodicity. This morphology-resolved framework turns eigenstate shape into a quantitative predictor of scrambling and provides a scale-controlled diagnostic of weak ergodicity breaking in quantum chaos.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Agent trajectories as programs: fingerprinting and programming coding-agent behavior

arXiv:2606.16988v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Benchmark scores tell you what an agent got right; they do not tell you how it got there. In this work, we introduce methods for comparing agents procedurally in different contexts, where the model, tasks, and approaches vary. We compare ten agents and find that they are identifiable by their behavioral habits, which we define as fingerprints: a probe over these procedural signatures attributes an unseen trajectory to the correct agent at 85.7% accuracy, controlling for leakage across tasks. We develop procedural representations for agent problem-solving procedures with an emergent vocabulary induction technique that is meant to be maximally compressive to avoid surface-level variation while being expressive enough to unveil the quirks of the models' patterns. We apply our framework to the software engineering evaluation dataset SWE-Bench to study the structural distinctness of agent trajectories and find that behavior is most similar between models from similar release periods and those that are distilled from one another (e.g., a distilled student model and its teacher have a Jensen-Shannon divergence of 0.25, about half the distance between other model pairs). As more models saturate evaluations, we believe that it will be important to probe model behavior along more holistic dimensions than success rates alone. We introduce ProcGrep, a library for auditing and evaluating agents for how they approach tasks at a procedural level given their traces in a top-down fashion. We believe this work has a range of applications to help developers work with and program coding agents, such as task-aware model routing, agent monitoring, and finer-grained cost analysis.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

A High-Resolution Landscape Dataset for Concept-Based XAI With Application to Species Distribution Models

arXiv:2604.13240v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Mapping the spatial distribution of species is essential for conservation policy and invasive species management. Species distribution models (SDMs) are the primary tools for this task, serving two purposes: achieving robust predictive performance while providing ecological insights into the driving factors of distribution. However, the increasing complexity of deep learning SDMs has made extracting these insights more challenging. To reconcile these objectives, we propose the first implementation of concept-based Explainable AI (XAI) for SDMs. We leverage the Robust TCAV (Testing with Concept Activation Vectors) methodology to quantify the influence of landscape concepts on model predictions. To enable this, we provide a new open-access landscape concept dataset derived from high-resolution multispectral and LiDAR drone imagery. It includes 653 patches across 15 distinct landscape concepts and 1,450 random reference patches, designed to suit a wide range of species. We demonstrate this approach through a case study of two aquatic insects, Plecoptera and Trichoptera, using two Convolutional Neural Networks and one Vision Transformer. Results show that concept-based XAI helps validate SDMs against expert knowledge while uncovering novel associations that generate new ecological hypotheses. Robust TCAV also provides landscape-level information, useful for policy-making and land management. Code and datasets are publicly available.

11.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Single Photon Cross-Phase Shifts Can Be Enhanced by Localization in both Frequency and Time

arXiv:2606.11516v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Single-photon optical nonlinearities face a fundamental trade-off: maximum nonlinearity requires both spectral resonance (narrow bandwidth) and high peak intensity (short duration), constraints that are incompatible due to the time-energy uncertainty relation. We demonstrate experimentally that this limitation does not need to exist in cases involving post-selection. We measure a cross-phase shift (XPS) produced by a resonant photon from a narrow-band source that is first transmitted through a cold atomic cloud and then localized in time through detection. The peak size of this XPS is greatly enhanced compared to that of Gaussian single-photon-level pulses without post-selection, benefiting from the narrow bandwidth of the resonant prepared state and the high intensity of the post-selected state simultaneously. We measure enhancements in the peak XPS of 6$\pm$1 at an optical depth (OD) of 2.4$\pm$0.1, and our results are in qualitative agreement across a range of optical depths with the recently developed weak value theory of atomic excitation [Thompson et al., APL Quantum 2, 036108 (2025)] for such post-selected photons. This work uncovers new consequences of having simultaneous knowledge of frequency and time, raising new foundational questions about how a particle behaves, and interacts with other systems, when its preparation and post-selection are non-commuting.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Prototyping an AI-powered Tool for Energy Efficiency in New Zealand Homes

arXiv:2509.05364v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Residential buildings contribute significantly to energy use, health outcomes, and carbon emissions. In New Zealand, housing quality has historically been poor, with inadequate insulation and inefficient heating contributing to widespread energy hardship. Recent reforms, including the Warmer Kiwi Homes program, Healthy Homes Standards, and H1 Building Code upgrades, have delivered health and comfort improvements, yet challenges persist. Many retrofits remain partial, data on household performance are limited, and decision-making support for homeowners is fragmented. This study presents the design and evaluation of an AI-powered decision-support tool for residential energy efficiency in New Zealand. The prototype, developed using Python and Streamlit, integrates data ingestion, anomaly detection, baseline modeling, and scenario simulation (e.g., LED retrofits, insulation upgrades) into a modular dashboard. Fifteen domain experts, including building scientists, consultants, and policy practitioners, tested the tool through semi-structured interviews. Results show strong usability (M = 4.3), high value of scenario outputs (M = 4.5), and positive perceptions of its potential to complement subsidy programs and regulatory frameworks. The tool demonstrates how AI can translate national policies into personalized, household-level guidance, bridging the gap between funding, standards, and practical decision-making. Its significance lies in offering a replicable framework for reducing energy hardship, improving health outcomes, and supporting climate goals. Future development should focus on carbon metrics, tariff modeling, integration with national datasets, and longitudinal trials to assess real-world adoption.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Would a Large Language Model Pay Extra for a View? Inferring Willingness to Pay from Subjective Choices

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in applications such as travel assistance and purchasing support, they are often required to make subjective choices on behalf of users in settings where no objectively correct answer exists. We study LLM decision-making in a travel-assistant context by presenting models with choice dilemmas and analyzing their responses using multinomial logit models to derive implied willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. These WTP values are subsequently compared to human benchmark values from the economics literature. In addition to a baseline setting, we examine how model behavior changes under more realistic conditions, including the provision of information about users' past choices and persona-based prompting. Our results show that while meaningful WTP values can be derived for larger LLMs, they also display systematic deviations at the attribute level. Additionally, they tend to overestimate human WTP overall, particularly when expensive options or business-oriented personas are introduced. Conditioning models on prior preferences for cheaper options yields valuations that are closer to human benchmarks. Overall, our findings highlight both the potential and the limitations of using LLMs for subjective decision support and underscore the importance of careful model selection, prompt design, and user representation when deploying such systems in practice.

14.
PLOS Medicine 2026-06-09

Molecular Tumor Boards clinical impact on patient care and structural features: A systematic review and meta-analysis

作者:

by Luigi Russo, Erika Giacobini, Nicolò Lentini, Tommaso Osti, Maud Kamal, Stefania Boccia, Roberta Pastorino Background Molecular Tumor Boards (MTBs) bring together multidisciplinary experts to translate genomic data into clinical decisions in oncology, however, their overall clinical impact remains unclear. The aim of this systematic review is to assess the clinical impact of MTB-recommended therapies on patients with cancer outcomes. Methods and findings In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and CENTRAL up to July 2025. We included studies of any design, both single-arm studies and studies with a comparator group, that reported the clinical impact of MTBs in patients who received MTB-guided therapy. Meta-analyses were performed separately by study design, using hazard ratios (HRs) for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), relative risks (RRs) for objective response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR), and pooled proportions for PFS ratio ≥1.3. All meta-analyses were conducted using random-effects models based on the inverse variance method. We evaluated the risk of bias using the RoB 2.0 for RCTs and ROBINS-I for non-randomized studies.From 6,846 records, 78 studies (9,195 patients; 4,569 treated per MTB recommendations) were included. MTB-guided therapies were associated with reduced risk of death (HR 0.87; 95% CI [0.76, 1.01]; p = 0.069; I2 = 0.0% in RCTs; 0.62 in retrospective studies) and disease progression (HR 0.73; 95% CI [0.64, 0.84]; p 

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Manifold-Orthogonal Dual-spectrum Extrapolation for Parameterized Physics-Informed Neural Networks

arXiv:2603.13751v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have achieved notable success in modeling dynamical systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). To avoid computationally expensive retraining under new physical conditions, parameterized PINNs (P$^2$INNs) commonly adapt pre-trained operators using singular value decomposition (SVD) for out-of-distribution (OOD) regimes. However, SVD-based fine-tuning often suffers from rigid subspace locking and truncation of important high-frequency spectral modes, limiting its ability to capture complex physical transitions. While parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods appear to be promising alternatives, applying conventional adapters such as LoRA to P$^2$INNs introduces a severe Pareto trade-off, as additive updates increase parameter overhead and disrupt the structured physical manifolds inherent in operator representations. To address these limitations, we propose Manifold-Orthogonal Dual-spectrum Extrapolation (MODE), a lightweight micro-architecture designed for physics operator adaptation. MODE decomposes physical evolution into complementary mechanisms including principal-spectrum dense mixing that enables cross-modal energy transfer within frozen orthogonal bases, residual-spectrum awakening that activates high-frequency spectral components through a single trainable scalar, and affine Galilean unlocking that explicitly isolates spatial translation dynamics. Experiments on challenging PDE benchmarks including the 1D Convection–Diffusion–Reaction equation and the 2D Helmholtz equation demonstrate that MODE achieves strong out-of-distribution generalization while preserving the minimal parameter complexity of native SVD and outperforming existing PEFT-based baselines.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Belief-Space Control for Personalized Cancer Treatment via Active Inference

arXiv:2606.10376v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Cancer treatment is at the core a sequential decision-making problem with partial observability, latent patient heterogeneity, and explicit constraints on the budget for medical measurements. Unlike standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches that control state trajectories, cancer treatments permanently modify patients' transition dynamics, changing how states evolve over time. We model cancer treatment as a belief-space planning problem using active inference, deriving an expected free-energy objective that unifies goal-directed control and information acquisition under measurement budgets without. We implement this framework using real clinical cancer data from the AACR Project GENIE Biopharma Collaborative dataset. Results on clinical data demonstrate a simultaneous patient categorization and high treatment efficacy, under real measurement and treatment constraints.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Agentic Framework for Deep Learning workload migration via In-Context Learning

arXiv:2606.15994v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Translating deep learning models from PyTorch's flexible, object-oriented design to JAX's functional, stateless setup is usually a manual and error-prone task. Automated migration is challenging because Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle with strict and dynamic API alignment and are prone to mistakes for exacting operations. We propose a fully autonomous system that combines In-Context Learning (ICL) with oracle-driven self-debugging. First, we curated an ICL context that serves as a strict reference for idiomatic JAX styling and test case generation. Second, instead of depending on the LLM to deduce mathematical outputs, we run the source PyTorch modules to get their actual dynamic tensor states. This creates an unchangeable execution oracle. We then use an autonomous agentic loop to synthesize tests based on the oracle data. The test cases are executed repeatedly, and the traceback is sent back to the LLM for self-correction. Ablations show that combining ICL references with oracle grounding and self-debugging greatly outperforms pure instructional and basic agentic baselines. This improvement does not add an excessive computational overhead. Our lightweight pipeline achieves 91% numerical equivalence (compared to baseline: 9%, instruction + self-debugging: 27%) on neural modules, providing a highly reliable, scalable blueprint for cross-framework migration. This has been validated across several state-of-the-art models including SAM (segment anything), T5, Code Whisper amongst others showing high numerical equivalency. Code: https://github.com/AI-Hypercomputer/accelerator-agents/tree/main/MaxCode

19.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Exploring Variational Entanglement Hamiltonians

arXiv:2505.10530v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent advances in analog and digital quantum-simulation platforms have enabled exploration of the spectrum of entanglement Hamiltonians via variational algorithms. In this work we analyze the convergence properties of the variationally obtained solutions and compare them to numerically exact calculations in quantum critical systems. We demonstrate that interpreting the cost functional as an integral permits the deployment of iterative quadrature schemes, thereby reducing the required number of measurements by more than an order of magnitude even in the presence of noise. We further show that a modified ansatz captures deviations from the Bisognano-Wichmann form in lattice models, improves convergence, improves trainability and provides a cost-function-level diagnostic for quantum phase transitions. Finally, we establish that a low cost value does not by itself guarantee convergence in trace distance. Nevertheless, it faithfully reproduces degeneracies and spectral gaps, which are essential for applications to topological phases.

20.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Physics-IQ Verified

Video generative models ( VGMs) have become a new frontier that can be used not just for video generation but for a multitude of downstream tasks, including world modeling. To advance these tasks, a good video model must understand the physical reality of the world. Evaluating this understanding is an emerging field and has led to the Physics-IQ benchmark, which quantifies this explicitly by comparing model-generated videos to real-world videos of physical experiments. In this work, we present a systematic audit of the Physics-IQ benchmark, expose shortcomings and propose three solutions that sharpen how we can measure physical understanding of VGMs. Specifically, we improve prompt and ground-truth quality to reduce the influence of confounding factors and further introduce a sample-level scoring system that weights each sample and metric equally. Our resulting benchmark, Physics-IQ Verified, refines 57.6\% of all samples and improves over 34.8\% of prompts. In a comparison study using six image-to-video generative models, we observe moderate but meaningful ranking changes (Kendall's $\tau = 0.46$). We hope Physics-IQ Verified advances the community by providing a more reliable signal toward physically accurate VGMs. The code for the benchmark can be accessed at https://github.com/google-deepmind/physics-iq-benchmark

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Robust Transformer-Based One-Step Stock Index Forecasting via Shifted Data Augmentation

arXiv:2606.15701v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Transformers have shown remarkable success in sequence modeling, yet their direct application to financial time series remains challenging due to noisy signals, short-memory dynamics, and distributional shifts. This paper proposes a modified Transformer architecture for one-step stock index forecasting, combined with advanced learning-rate scheduling and a novel Shifted Data Augmentation (SDA) technique. We evaluate the proposed framework on two benchmark stock index datasets, VN30 and S&P 500. Experimental results demonstrate that cosine annealing with warmup consistently improves forecasting accuracy over the generalized inverse-power scheduler. Furthermore, SDA substantially reduces forecasting errors and run-to-run variability while improving robustness to hyperparameter selection. The combination of cosine annealing scheduling and SDA achieved the best performance on both datasets, indicating that data augmentation can play a more important role than increasing model complexity in Transformer-based financial forecasting. These findings provide a practical and computationally efficient approach for robust stock index forecasting in noisy financial environments.

22.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-17

Rock weathering can counteract river CO<sub>2</sub> emissions induced by permafrost thaw

作者:

Climate-induced permafrost thaw unlocks large stores of organic carbon that are mineralized and emitted as carbon dioxide (CO2) from rivers to the atmosphere1. Concurrently, warming and permafrost thaw can increase mineral weathering rates, thus affecting the release and sequestration of inorganic carbon2–4. Yet how these biological and geological carbon cycles interact and jointly affect CO2 dynamics (emission compared with drawdown) in permafrost rivers remains unknown5. Here we combine CO2 emissions, organic and inorganic solute concentrations, dual carbon isotopes (δ13C–Δ14C) and geochemical modelling to infer how permafrost thaw may affect river biogeochemistry over decades to centuries across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Leveraging a gradient of thermal permafrost degradation, we find that river CO2 emissions decline, whereas solute fluxes from rock weathering increase with decreasing permafrost cover. Across this region, net CO2 drawdown fluxes from rock weathering are about 35% of river CO2 emissions, varying from around 15% in catchments with continuous permafrost to more than 100% in catchments with discontinuous or isolated permafrost. Thus, carbon fluxes from chemical weathering may become increasingly important with ongoing permafrost thaw, potentially even outpacing river CO2 emissions. Our findings disentangle the interplay between biological and geological carbon fluxes that are important for the cryosphere and the global carbon cycle. Permafrost thaw on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau increases rock-weathering rates while reducing river CO2 emissions, suggesting geological carbon fluxes may eventually outpace thaw-driven emissions.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Small Experiments, Cheaper Decisions: A Case Study in Staged Promotion for Micro-Pretraining

Short pretraining runs can reduce experimental cost, but they can also over-promote configurations that only look strong at tiny budgets. We study an auditable staged-promotion protocol for a fixed micro-pretraining runner on two heterogeneous host blocks: Windows A100 and Linux L40S. Starting from twelve prior-screened configurations, we use staged budgets of 2 minutes, 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 60 minutes, and 12 hours, with frozen promotion rules before expensive continuations. The early screens are intentionally treated as unstable: the 5- and 10-minute rankings are host-sensitive, and the eventual 12-hour top-ranked condition is not the mean-best condition at the replicated 10-minute gate. Because seed ranges differ across stages, these changes are operational promotion evidence, not within-seed curves. A replicated 60-minute gate keeps the Staged Factorial Screening bridge reference in the promoted set, where it ranks first in all four 60-minute host-seed cells. In the final 12-hour confirmation package, the bridge condition ranks first in all four host-seed cells across two seeds; the greedy comparator does not meet the frozen 0.010 val_bpb near-equivalence rule; and the cheaper d8/ar48 (depth-8, aspect-48) sentinel does not meet the frozen 0.020 mean-gap rule. The executed 12-hour branch spends 144 GPU-hours, and the full staged protocol records 169.2 training GPU-hours including screening stages. Continuing all four 60-minute candidates would spend 192 GPU-hours, while continuing all nine replicated 10-minute candidates would spend 432 GPU-hours. The latter numbers are accounting counterfactuals for unrun continuations, not evidence that skipped candidates could not have overtaken the reference. The result is a bounded cost-allocation finding, not a claim of global optimality, capacity-normalized superiority, or superiority over adaptive hyperparameter optimization methods.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Vibe Coding Ate My Homework: An evaluation of AI approaches to greenfield software engineering and programming

arXiv:2606.18293v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Thanks to rapid developments in generative AI, we are in the midst of a paradigm shift that may change how we interact with computers forever. We have observed a growth in the use of natural language prompts to build applications and coding infrastructures without underlying knowledge of the field, and this practice has been dubbed `vibe coding.' It arguably represents what the field of programming has been building towards since the beginning, with every higher level of abstraction that is conceived. Vibe coding promises to be the endpoint for the meta of high-level programming as far as method of input is concerned: eliminating a human's use of code syntax entirely in favour of programming in their mother tongue. This paper aims to evaluate the viability of vibe coding for greenfield software engineering tasks, as well as analyse the benchmarks that have been used to measure its software engineering prowess. To this end, we have developed an evaluation suite for analysing an LLM's proficiency in carrying out simple, isolated greenfield programming tasks in Python to provide scoped insight on the matter.

25.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Unifying framework for quantum simulation algorithms for time-dependent Hamiltonian dynamics

arXiv:2411.03180v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recently, there has been growing interest in simulating time-dependent Hamiltonians using quantum algorithms, driven by diverse applications, such as quantum adiabatic computing. While techniques for simulating time-independent Hamiltonian dynamics are well-established, time-dependent Hamiltonian dynamics is less explored and it is unclear how to systematically organize existing methods and to find new methods. Sambe-Howland's continuous clock elegantly transforms time-dependent Hamiltonian dynamics into time-independent Hamiltonian dynamics, which means that by taking different discretizations, existing methods for time-independent Hamiltonian dynamics can be exploited for time-dependent dynamics. In this work, we systemically investigate how Sambe-Howland's clock can serve as a unifying framework for simulating time-dependent Hamiltonian dynamics. Firstly, we demonstrate the versatility of this approach by showcasing its compatibility with analog quantum computing and digital quantum computing. Secondly, for digital quantum computers, we illustrate how this framework, combined with time-independent methods (e.g., product formulas, multi-product formulas, qDrift, and LCU-Taylor), can facilitate the development of efficient algorithms for simulating time-dependent dynamics. This framework allows us to (a) resolve the problem of finding minimum-gate time-dependent product formulas; (b) establish a unified picture of both Suzuki's and Huyghebaert and De Raedt's approaches; (c) generalize Huyghebaert and De Raedt's first and second-order formula to arbitrary orders; (d) answer an unsolved question in establishing time-dependent multi-product formulas; (e) and recover continuous qDrift on the same footing as time-independent qDrift. Thirdly, we demonstrate the efficacy of our newly developed higher-order Huyghebaert and De Raedt's algorithm through digital adiabatic simulation.