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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

InternVideo3: Agentify Foundation Models with Multimodal Contextual Reasoning

Recent progress in foundation models has shifted toward agentic behavior involving multi-step reasoning and tool use. However, open-source efforts largely focus on text-dominant settings, leaving long-horizon multimodal tasks underexplored. This gap is evident in video tasks requiring sustained temporal understanding and iterative interaction. We present InternVideo3, a framework enhancing these capabilities via Multimodal Contextual Reasoning (MCR). MCR treats understanding as a closed-loop process over a shared, evolving context containing observations, instructions, reasoning, tool actions, and memory. This frames long-video understanding as evidence accumulation and verification. To ensure efficiency, we introduce Multimodal Multi-head Latent Attention (M^2LA), a token-preserving reparameterization compressing KV-cache states while retaining the full token stream. Our staged training includes continued pretraining, short-to-long supervised fine-tuning, rule-based reinforcement learning, and on-policy distillation. Experiments show InternVideo3 achieves strong performance on benchmarks like Video-MME, MLVU, and EgoSchema. We further instantiate the model as a video agent with retrieval tools, demonstrating robust evidence-grounded behavior. Our results suggest that efficient context handling and closed-loop reasoning are vital for adapting open multimodal models toward long-horizon visually grounded agency.

02.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-10

Gendered pathways to adolescent mental health: An empirical assessment of a new conceptual framework

Introduction Gender norms and roles are important determinants of physical and mental health in the key period of adolescence. Yet, the gendered pathways to mental health in adolescents are not fully understood. Using a conceptual framework for global adolescent mental health that we developed based on a Delphi process, we empirically investigated the associations between six gender-related constructs and adolescent mental health. Methods We used cross-sectional Gender and Adolescence: Global Evidence (GAGE) data from Ethiopia (2020) to explore the associations between sex, gender norms, psychological competencies, gender attitudes, gender roles, with the latter two also serving as mediators, and psychological distress (GHQ-12), using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Results The SEM model contained measurements from 1,584 adolescents, including 843 girls and 741 boys, with a median age of 13 years. Out of 14 pathways tested, we found statistically significant associations between psychological competencies and psychological distress; sex and gender attitudes; and between gender norms and psychological competencies, gender attitudes, and gender roles. Hence, the gender-related constructs were mostly associated with each other, rather than with psychological distress. Conclusion The gender-related constructs are strongly interrelated, thereby attenuating their individual effects on psychological distress. The interplay of gender-related constructs should be considered when developing interventions to promote mental health in adolescents.

03.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-11

DyMoTree decodes early cell state transitions and drivers from single-cell transcriptomes using a tree-structured neural network

Inferring early cell fate from single-cell RNA-sequencing data is essential for identifying cellular origins and fate plasticity in development and disease. However, existing methods often fail to exploit tree-structured lineage trajectories, limiting the accuracy and interpretability of fate mapping. Here we present DyMoTree, a computational framework that models cell fate decisions as nonlinear mappings between progenitor and terminal cell states under explicit lineage constraints. By integrating lineage graphs with a tree-structured neural architecture, DyMoTree learns lineage-resolved cell-state transition maps from single-cell transcriptomes, enabling robust inference of early fate bias and identification of fate-specific progenitor substates and driver genes. Across simulations, lineage-tracing experiments, and in vivo systems, DyMoTree outperformed existing methods in resolving early fate biases. Applications to mouse embryogenesis, lung adenocarcinoma progression, and CAR-T immunotherapy revealed regulatory programs underlying developmental and disease-associated transitions. DyMoTree provides a general framework for modeling lineage-resolved cell-state dynamics underlying development and disease progression.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Decompose Sparsely Where You Should, Absorb Densely Where You Should No

arXiv:2606.14040v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are typically trained to reconstruct the entire residual stream through a sparse dictionary, implicitly assuming that all activation content is amenable to sparse, monosemantic decomposition. We question this assumption and hypothesize that activations contain a low-rank, dense component that is computationally important to the model yet inherently unsuitable for sparse representation, which serves as a major source of the persistent dense latents widely observed in trained SAEs. To test this, we add a small rank-$r$ linear bottleneck in parallel with standard SAEs (BatchTopK and Matryoshka), allowing dense structure to be absorbed before sparse reconstruction. On Gemma-2-2B layer 12, a rank-24 bottleneck reduces dense latent count by up to 84\% while improving sparse probing and targeted probe perturbation on both architectures at matched sparsity. The absorbed component is (i) structurally identifiable as the top principal components and outlier dimensions; (ii) causally necessary, with removing it raising next-token cross-entropy by 7.5$\times$, far exceeding the 2.8$\times$ from removing the geometrically near-identical top-24 PCA directions; and (iii) redundantly encoded by sparse dictionaries, with ablating 787 maximally aligned sparse features raising cross-entropy by only 2.9$\times$ and ablating 2,048 topic-aligned features leaving MMLU topic classification virtually unchanged, whereas removing the scaffold drops it from 98.7\% to chance. Together, our findings identify a compact, semantically informative and causally important component of residual stream activations (which we term a computational scaffold) that standard sparse dictionaries represent inefficiently, suggesting that the scope of sparsity-based interpretability methods warrants careful re-examination.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

A Link between Shock-wave Theory and Symmetry-reduced Stochastic Gradient Descent for Artificial Neural Networks

arXiv:2606.18303v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We develop a mathematically explicit link between shock-wave theory and the symmetry-quotiented learning dynamics of stochastic gradient descent, drawing on differential geometry, Lie group theory, and fluid mechanics. Specifically, after quotienting parameter symmetries and applying local-entropy coarse-graining, the effective dynamics satisfy a viscous Hamilton–Jacobi equation on the quotient manifold. Moreover, under the assumption that the raw parameter dynamics can be summarized by a gradient field on the quotiented space, the gradient of the coarse-grained loss function obeys a Burgers-type equation, and shock formation can be established rigorously. We apply our theory to multilayer perceptrons, convolutional neural networks, Transformers, and mean-field networks, and show that they obey the Hamilton–Jacobi or Burgers-type equations. We conjecture that this framework also yields practical diagnostics for deep learning. In architectures such as Transformers, raw parameter norms are often distorted by symmetry redundancy and may therefore be misleading, whereas symmetry-corrected quotient observables provide a principled basis for monitoring, forecasting, and controlling training-phase transitions.

06.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

Ergodic Properties of Non-Linear Density-Dependent Perturbations of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process

arXiv:2606.18877v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The present paper considers McKean-Vlasov SDEs with density-dependent spatially unbounded drift, which may be viewed as a non-linear density-dependent perturbation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We develop a comprehensive theoretical framework for this class of equations. First, we establish strong well-posedness and derive optimal Gaussian pointwise bounds for both the solution density and its gradient. Then we derive an explicit expression for the stationary density and show that it satisfies logarithmic Sobolev and Poincaré inequalities. Finally, we prove exponential convergence to equilibrium in the \(\chi^2\)-metric.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Stepwise Token Selection for Efficient Multimodal Large Language Models

In multimodal large language models (MLLMs), inference cost is largely dominated by the visual token prefix rather than the language backbone, making token reduction a key factor for improving efficiency. Existing approaches typically assign independent importance scores to visual tokens and retain a fixed number of top-ranked tokens, implicitly assuming token independence and a uniform compression ratio across inputs. In this work, we reformulate visual token pruning as a sequential decision-making process. Specifically, we introduce a pointer-style selection mechanism that iteratively chooses informative tokens, conditioning each decision on previously selected ones, and dynamically determines when to stop via a learned termination action. This enables joint optimization of both the selected subset and its size. To enable end-to-end training under standard language modeling objectives, we design a differentiable relaxation based on a variance-preserving noise interpolation scheme, allowing gradients to propagate through the discrete selection process. Extensive experiments on LLaVA-v1.5-7B and Qwen2.5-VL-7B demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms fixed-ratio baselines across different compression levels. Under aggressive pruning that removes 88.9% of visual tokens, our method preserves 94.6% of the original accuracy while achieving a 1.88x speed-up in prefill latency.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

MGI: Member vs Generated Inference

arXiv:2606.23872v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As generative models increasingly produce samples that are indistinguishable from human-created content, it becomes difficult to determine whether a given data point was part of a model's natural training set or was generated by the model itself, especially when models memorize and reproduce training data. We formalize this challenge as Member vs Generated Inference (MGI): given a sample and a target generative model, infer whether the sample is a true training member or a generated output of that model. Focusing on image generation, we show that existing membership inference methods systematically misclassify generated samples as training members, while attribution-based methods often misclassify true members as generated. This failure arises because both approaches rely on likelihood-related signals that are similarly elevated for training examples and for the model's own outputs. To address MGI, we propose Data Circuit Breaker (DCB), a three-stage method that combines complementary signals from a generative model's autoencoder and latent generator to distinguish training members from generated samples. Across multiple generative models, including image autoregressive and diffusion models, DCB consistently addresses the shortcomings of membership inference and attribution methods, remains effective even when models reproduce near-duplicates of training samples, and generalizes to challenging model derivative settings in which new models are trained on generated data.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

VIMPO: Value-Implicit Policy Optimization for LLMs

arXiv:2606.20008v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards has become a central tool for improving the reasoning ability of large language models, but current methods face a trade-off between simplicity and credit assignment. Group-relative methods such as GRPO avoid training a critic, but typically assign a trajectory-level advantage to every token. Actor-critic methods provide denser learning signals, but require a learned value function with its own training instability. We introduce VIMPO, a critic-free policy optimization method that derives a policy-implied value function from the optimality conditions of KL-regularized reinforcement learning. For autoregressive generation, the resulting value recurrence can be written in terms of policy-reference log-ratios and anchored by the terminal condition that no future reward remains at the end of a trajectory. This gives a simple value loss that incorporates outcome-level verifiable rewards without training a critic. The same derivation also yields a critic-free actor advantage, allowing VIMPO to separate reward incorporation through the value loss from policy improvement through a PPO-style actor update. On mathematical RLVR benchmarks, VIMPO improves over GRPO across MATH-500, AIME 2024, AIME 2025, and OlympiadBench, with especially larger gains on competition-style evaluations. Under noisy rewards, VIMPO retains a consistent advantage over GRPO, suggesting that policy-implied value optimization can provide finer credit assignment while preserving the practical simplicity of critic-free training.

10.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Cardiac rhythm development: A wearable device index of risk for physical and mental illness in adolescence

Objective. The autonomic nervous system, which regulates cardiac rhythm, undergoes pronounced maturation across adolescence. How cardiac rhythm develops over this period, however, and whether individual differences in its development forecast mental and physical illness, remain open questions. We used three waves of Fitbit data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study to characterize the developmental trajectory of the cardiac rhythm and to test whether variation in that trajectory predicts onset of psychopathology and cardiometabolic disease. Methods. 8,301 adolescents contributed 242,811 valid Fitbit wear days across Waves 2 (Mage=12), 4 (Mage=14), and 6 (Mage=16). Cosinor mixed-effects models yielded three rhythm parameters per session: mesor (24-hour mean), amplitude (diurnal swing), and acrophase (peak timing). We first characterized age- and sex-specific trajectories, cross-wave stability, and factors shaping the rhythm. We then used parallel-process latent growth models to test whether within-person changes in rhythm tracked symptom trajectories, and hierarchical logistic models to test whether rhythm parameters predicted the first clinical onset of psychopathology and of obesity and hypertension. Results. The cardiac rhythm changed substantially across adolescence: mesor decreased, amplitude flattened, and acrophase shifted later. Within-person change in the rhythm tracked change in blood pressure, BMI, and trajectories of depression and ADHD symptoms. Higher mesor predicted incident onset of all five outcomes controlling for demographics, baseline symptoms, and behavior (ORs 1.36-1.54); amplitude, acrophase, and rhythm instability conferred additional risk. Conclusions. The 24-hour cardiac rhythm is a passively measurable substrate of adolescent autonomic development that indexes transdiagnostic risk for psychiatric and cardiometabolic illness.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Expanding SPHERE-JEPA: A Family of Statistical Regularizers for the Hypersphere

arXiv:2606.17603v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In Self-Supervised Learning (SSL), preventing representation collapse by explicitly enforcing a uniform distribution on the unit hypersphere has proven to be effective. However, current frameworks typically rely on sliced statistical regularizers such as SIGReg (used in LeJEPA) and SUSReg (used in SPHERE-JEPA), which approximate this continuous objective via Monte Carlo sampling along random 1D directions. This stochasticity injects projection variance into the training gradients, destabilizing optimization, and hindering convergence. In this work, we first show that analytically integrating out these random projections natively yields a deterministic Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), bypassing the variance of sliced methods. Motivated by this equivalence, we formulate full-dimensional objectives for MMD, Kernel Stein Discrepancy (KSD), and Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence directly on the sphere to enforce a uniform distribution. To prevent spatial bias, we equip these tests with rotationally invariant kernels constructed via spectral theory, systematically evaluating two canonical families: smooth exponential decay (Heat) and strict frequency cutoff (Bandlimited) filters. Empirically, removing projection-induced noise results in more stable optimization, faster convergence, and consistent improvements over stochastic sliced regularizers on ImageNet and Galaxy10. Furthermore, we reveal that the choice of the statistical test shapes the geometry of the learned latent space: MMD and KSD favor locally clustered organization suitable for object-centric domains, whereas the continuous KDE-based KL divergence promotes fine-grained instance separation, yielding the strongest results on unclustered procedural texture retrieval.

12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Exact Entanglement Dynamics Beyond Nearest-Neighbor Dual-Unitary Floquet Systems

作者:

arXiv:2606.11311v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Exact results using dual-unitarity largely rely on nearest-neighbor structures, while finite-range interactions typically lead to complications. Going beyond the usual nearest-neighbor setting, we introduce an analytically tractable family of finite-range kicked Ising models that admit exact closed-form entanglement dynamics. The construction is based on a staggered structure in which dual-unitarity is present on sublattices that are then coupled to each other. The central observation is that these inter-sublattice couplings do not obstruct the dual-unitarity of the resulting model. For the minimal interaction range of $r= 2$, we derive exact expressions for all the $n-$Rényi entanglement entropies at all times and show that the result is the sum of the two coupled sublattice contributions. Our framework extends naturally to larger finite interaction ranges and to systems with heterogeneous local Hilbert spaces, without additional assumptions. It thus provides a controlled setting for studying exact entanglement growth beyond strictly nearest-neighbor dual-unitary models.

13.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Recruitment, Retention Approaches and Community Engagement in the THRIVE pilot Trial: Lessons Learned from a Food is Medicine Trial

Background: Recruitment of underrepresented populations, including Black and Hispanic populations, for Food is Medicine (FIM) and cardiovascular trials, may pose significant challenges. Methods: We implemented a multi-component recruitment approach for the THRIVE (AdapTive personalized dietitian coacHing and messaging with pRoduce prescrIptions to improVE healthy dietary behaviors) pilot trial to engage primarily Black and Hispanic adults in a Food is Medicine for hypertension intervention. The recruitment approaches included community engagement at approximately 40 community events (cultural festivals and neighborhood gatherings); partnerships with 8 community and faith-based service hubs and food distribution sites; recruitment through safety net primary care clinics, digital outreach via the study website, and social media campaigns; and direct recruitment at places of worship. We report lessons learned from the community engagement process, recruitment efficiency, representativeness, and retention outcomes. Results: Within 6 months, the enrollment target was exceeded by 40%, with an accrual index of 1.04. Over 1,000 individuals were reached through the direct-to-community engagement process, while faith-based partnerships engaged about 900 adults. There were 2,673 visits to the study webpage, and social media achieved 12,259 impressions with 399 clicks. About 95% of participants resided within 10 miles of the faith-based recruitment sites. Face-to-face engagement at the food distribution sites within faith-based organizations or community service hubs outperformed digital methods. Faith leader endorsements and follow-up in-person meetings (following unsuccessful email outreach) dramatically increased recruitment. Regarding retention, pre-randomization attrition was 6%, and 82% of participants completed the study. Conclusion: Culturally tailored, community-engaged recruitment grounded in faith-based and local community partnerships, was highly effective in engaging Black and Hispanic populations in this FIM cardiovascular trial. This provides a replicable model for implementing equitable and sustainable cardiovascular health interventions.

14.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Scalable Graph State Generation with O(1) Local Feedforward in Quantum Networks

arXiv:2606.16375v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The development of quantum networks faces a key challenge: the contradiction between probabilistic long-range entanglement generation and finite coherence time. Existing routing protocols typically focus on global state computation or path optimization. As the network scales up, classical delays accumulate and exacerbate decoherence, leading to a decrease in entanglement fidelity. To reduce routing decision delays to levels far below the coherence time of qubits, we propose a protocol based on local measurement and classical feedforward. This protocol reduces the local decision complexity to amortized O(1) level, ensuring that the decision delay is always much smaller than the coherence time of qubits. We map this protocol onto a dual-species trapped-ion platform and perform hybrid simulations. The results show that the proposed protocol performs well in terms of both resource efficiency and time feasibility. Noise analysis indicates that readout fidelity is the main bottleneck of this protocol, but noise suppression can be achieved by employing an erasure transformation in the dual-species architecture, combined with spatial multiplexing and branch independence, thereby ensuring the generation of high-fidelity star subgraphs. This protocol provides a clear path to achieving high-fidelity star subgraphs. These subgraphs can serve as general modules, merging to construct arbitrary subgraphs, providing a feasible solution for future fault-tolerant distributed quantum computing.

15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Extending Item Response Theory for Efficient and Meaningful Multilingual Evaluation

Multilingual benchmarks are central to evaluating large language models (LLMs) across languages, but they suffer from three issues: exhaustive evaluation scales linearly with the number of languages, automatic translation introduces errors that are easily missed at scale, and some items conflate general and culture-specific knowledge. We address all three with a unified statistical framework, Multilingual-IRT, which extends Item Response Theory with per-language difficulty deviations, split discriminability separating content from language effects, and per-language ability residuals. Fitting Multilingual-IRT on 25 LLMs across 29 languages of MMLU-Pro-X, we show that its fitted parameters support three practical applications: predicting unobserved (item, LLM, language) instances with 11-16% lower binary cross-entropy than the strongest accuracy-based baseline, surfacing candidate translation errors distributed across all 28 non-English languages, whereas accuracy-based baselines concentrate detections in a few languages, and recovering culture-specific items that accuracy-based baselines miss.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

MedicalAgentsBench for Complex Medical Reasoning: Comparing Internalized Reasoning Models versus Externalized Agent-based Frameworks

Complex medical reasoning requires integrating heterogeneous clinical evidence across multiple inference steps. Large language models (LLMs) now approach this through two routes: internalized reasoning and externalized agent scaffolding (frameworks that decompose problems collaboratively amongst multiple LLMs). To determine whether these routes are exclusive or complementary, we introduce MedicalAgentsBench, a filtered benchmark of 862 complex clinical questions drawn from the union of eight medical datasets via difficulty-aware curation and contamination screening. Evaluating three internalized reasoning models (DeepSeek-R1, o1-mini, and o3-mini), seven base models, and nine externalized agent-based methods, we find that internalized and externalized approaches each independently improve performance, and that their benefits compound: the highest accuracy is achieved by layering agent workflows onto an internalized reasoning model (i.e., o3-mini + MDAgents with 35.1%). Pareto analysis shows this combination dominates the cost-performance frontier; moreover, lightweight optimization on inexpensive models offers an entry point for resource-constrained settings. Our benchmark is at https://github.com/gersteinlab/MedicalAgentsBench.

17.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Transposition Approach to Optimal Control of McKean-Vlasov SPDEs

arXiv:2603.06245v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In this paper, we investigate an optimal control problem for McKean-Vlasov stochastic partial differential equations, in which the coefficients depend on the law of the state process. For systems with nonconvex control sets, we establish a Pontryagin-type stochastic maximum principle that provides necessary optimality conditions for admissible controls. The analysis is based on the classical spike variation method together with the introduction of an adjoint backward stochastic partial differential equation involving Lions derivatives with respect to probability measures. Our results extend the stochastic maximum principle for McKean-Vlasov controlled stochastic differential equations to the infinite-dimensional SPDE setting.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Overcoming the Impedance Mismatch: A Theoretical Roadmap for Fusing Foundation Models and Knowledge Graphs

arXiv:2606.15656v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern artificial intelligence remains fundamentally divided between the continuous, probabilistic spaces of Foundation Models and the discrete, deterministic structures of Knowledge Graphs. While Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) attempts to connect them by serializing graph data into text, we argue this lexical bridging is merely a superficial patch. In this paper, we formalize the underlying structural and geometric friction as the Impedance Mismatch. By categorizing current neuro-symbolic integration strategies into a three-tiered hierarchy, we demonstrate that neither surface-level prompt injection nor continuous representation alignment can preserve the strict logical motifs required for reliable multi-hop reasoning. We define the specific mathematical limits, such as the Lexical Bottleneck and Topological Collapse, that show current architectures will eventually hallucinate or conflate semantic nodes. To achieve true semantic fusion, we propose a rigorous theoretical roadmap. We advocate for natively internalizing discrete symbolic structures through Structured Residual Streams, utilizing Vector Symbolic Architectures for latent sub-graph injection, and performing model updates via Orthogonal Subspace Editing. This actionable framework paves the way for models that seamlessly fuse the precision of symbolic logic with the expressivity of parametric memory.

19.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

CreativeBench: Benchmarking and Enhancing Machine Creativity via Self-Evolving Challenges

The saturation of high-quality pre-training data has shifted research focus toward evolutionary systems capable of continuously generating novel artifacts, leading to the success of AlphaEvolve. However, the progress of such systems is hindered by the lack of rigorous, quantitative evaluation. To tackle this challenge, we introduce CreativeBench, a benchmark for evaluating machine creativity in code generation, grounded in a classical cognitive framework. Comprising two subsets – CreativeBench-Combo and CreativeBench-Explore – the benchmark targets combinatorial and exploratory creativity through an automated pipeline utilizing reverse engineering and self-play. By leveraging executable code, CreativeBench objectively distinguishes creativity from hallucination via a unified metric defined as the product of quality and novelty. Our analysis of state-of-the-art models reveals distinct behaviors: (1) scaling significantly improves combinatorial creativity but yields diminishing returns for exploration; (2) larger models exhibit ``convergence-by-scaling,'' becoming more correct but less divergent; and (3) reasoning capabilities primarily benefit constrained exploration rather than combination. Finally, we propose EvoRePE, a plug-and-play inference-time steering strategy that internalizes evolutionary search patterns to consistently enhance machine creativity.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

PCS-UQ: Uncertainty Quantification via the Predictability-Computability-Stability Framework

arXiv:2505.08784v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: As machine learning (ML) enters high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safety. In this paper we introduce PCS-UQ, a framework based on the Predictability, Computability, and Stability (PCS) principles for veridical data science. Starting with a candidate set of models or algorithms, PCS-UQ integrates a rigorous prediction-check to screen out unsuitable models in the set and utilizes bootstrap samples, in order to capture both inter-sample variability and algorithmic instability for the prediction-checked algorithms. We then introduce a novel multiplicative calibration scheme to enhance local adaptivity, which basically corresponds to a new score in conformal prediction. Moreover, we produce a compilation of 17 real-world regression datasets with manually-constructed subgroups. On this benchmark, PCS-UQ maintains the target coverage while outperforming or matching conformal methods equipped with oracle-selected algorithms in interval width. PCS-UQ achieves consistent subgroup coverage, outperforming these oracle-selected conformal methods. Notably, PCS-UQ stands out in achieving both competitive interval widths and consistent subgroup coverage.Across 6 classification datasets, PCS-UQ reduces prediction set sizes by 20\%. To scale the framework for deep learning, we propose computationally efficient variants that bypass expensive retraining. On three computer vision benchmarks, these variants reduce prediction set sizes by 20\% over conformal baselines. Finally, we provide theoretical proof that a modified PCS-UQ algorithm preserves valid coverage under exchangeability as a form of split conformal inference.

21.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-15

A multilevel hierarchical framework for quantification of experimental heterogeneity in population snapshot data

by David J. Warne, Xiangrun Zhu, Thomas P. Steele, Stuart T. Johnston, Scott A. Sisson, Matthew Faria, Ryan J. Murphy, Alexander P. Browning Biological systems exhibit substantial heterogeneity: that is, variation in specific characteristics of individuals within a population. As a result, it is of critical importance to appropriately account for biological heterogeneity when calibrating mathematical models to infer cellular processes and predict behaviour. Recent approaches consider ordinary differential equations with random parameters to quantify heterogeneity in dynamical processes of cells. In this setting, statistical inference is performed to characterise the distribution of these random parameters within a cell population. One significant limitation of this approach is the tacit assumption that there are no substantial deviations in these distributions across experimental replicates. In this work, we propose a flexible Bayesian hierarchical differential equation modelling framework that quantifies and distinguishes both inter-experimental heterogeneity (heterogeneity between experimental replicates) and intra-experimental heterogeneity (biological heterogeneity within replicate populations). We consider two recent studies that employ mathematical models to interpret flow cytometry snap-shot data and quantify heterogeneity in nano-particle cell interactions and cell internalisation processes. Using simulation data, we demonstrate that substantial inaccuracy in the inferred dynamics can arise when experimental heterogeneity is not accounted for. By contrast, our hierarchical approach is robust to variability in inter-experimental and intra-experimental heterogeneity and our method simplifies to previous methods when inter-experimental heterogeneity is negligible. Our approach is flexible and widely applicable to applications involving replicate populations and snapshot data. We provide open-source implementations of our methods on GitHub.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Faithful by Construction: Claim-Anchored Attribution for Multi-Document Summarization

作者:

End-to-end large language models (LLMs) produce fluent multi-document summaries but remain prone to hallucination, and the attributions they offer are typically coarse (whole documents or passages) and generated post hoc, leaving each summary statement hard to verify. We revisit the modular Extract–Select–Rewrite paradigm and recast its intermediate representation as the unit of attribution. We present CAMS, a Claim-Anchored Multi-document Summarization framework that (i) extracts atomic claims with token-level provenance from every source document, (ii) clusters equivalent claims across documents while flagging inter-source conflicts, (iii) selects a support-aware and salient subset, and (iv) rewrites the selection into a summary in which every sentence is anchored to a support-checked claim that links back to one or more source spans. Because content is localized before it is realized, the pipeline is attribution-oriented by construction and faithfulness-oriented by construction: it structurally preserves fine-grained, multi-source traceability while using support-aware selection, constrained rewriting, and verification to encourage, rather than guarantee, factual faithfulness. We evaluate quality, faithfulness, and localization on MultiNews, analyze conflict handling on DiverseSumm, and test zero-shot transfer on WCEP, using a two-regime protocol that separates reference-free citation quality from gold-aligned localization accuracy, and we add an evaluator-decoupled audit that tests citation precision with a support model never used for selection or verification. CAMS matches strong end-to-end and span-attribution baselines on summary quality while substantially improving faithfulness and citation precision, lifting multi-source attribution accuracy by roughly two-thirds, and exposing a controllable faithfulness–coverage trade-off that end-to-end models leave implicit.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Graphical conditional generative modeling for digital twin modeling

arXiv:2606.16219v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Digital twin modeling, including control and data assimilation under model uncertainty, often faces an open-ended fidelity problem: adding variables, data streams, and time scales can indefinitely increase model complexity, ultimately producing systems that are difficult to maintain, validate, interpret, and use for stress or safety testing. As an alternative, one can seek parsimonious stochastic surrogate models built only on the variables needed to describe the relevant quantities of interest. We introduce a framework for discovering such variables from observational data by identifying which candidate inputs influence the full conditional law of a target quantity, rather than only its conditional mean. This distinction is essential in stochastic, coarse-grained, or partially observed systems, where dependencies may appear through changes in variability, tail behavior, multimodality, or uncertainty rather than through deterministic functional relationships. The framework couples conditional generative modeling, which learns the conditional distribution of the target given candidate inputs, with Gaussian-process-based analysis of variance (through kernel mode decomposition), which enables iterative pruning of non-influential inputs and interpretable structure discovery. In control settings, the resulting surrogate can be interpreted as a learned Markov decision process: the method identifies not only a transition model, but also the state, action, and memory variables needed to make the learned dynamics effectively Markovian. Across examples involving stochastic dynamical systems, missing variables, PDE control, reinforcement learning, and economic data, the discovered structures yield interpretable stochastic surrogates whose downstream performance is comparable to models trained on the full variable set.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Navigating the Safety-Fidelity Trade-off: Massive-Variate Time Series Forecasting for Power Systems via Probabilistic Scenarios

arXiv:2606.13338v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting models are increasingly deployed on multivariate systems with distinct channel physics and operational constraints, but existing benchmarks evaluate neither property at scale. Public canonical multivariate benchmarks cap out at 2,000 channels, while power-system benchmarks either lack temporal structure or probabilistic evaluation. We introduce PowerPhase, a probabilistic forecasting benchmark built on six transmission grids ranging from 2,000 to 36,964 jointly forecasted channels, more than an order of magnitude beyond popular canonical multivariate benchmarks. Each target trajectory is the output of an AC power-flow solve, and PowerPhase ships with constraint-aware metrics, including Safety_mBrier, NECV, and CVaR-alpha, that complement CRPS and Distortion. Across eight baselines and three seeds, distributional accuracy and constraint satisfaction rank models differently, a trade-off we term safety-fidelity. We further propose PowerForge, a scenario-based quantile forecaster with type-specific decoding heads and a causal bridge between variable groups, which achieves the best average rank on every grid.