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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Renewable Lasso without Batch-Number Constraints: A Gradient-Enhanced Approach

arXiv:2606.11738v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study online estimation for high-dimensional generalized linear models with streaming data. First, for the non-distributed setting, we propose a gradient-enhanced surrogate loss that approximates the cumulative loss using only historical summaries, which modifies and improves upon the existing renewable estimation approach for the same model in the high-dimensional setting, and removes the batch-number constraint in previous studies. We then extend the method to distributed streaming data under the master-client architecture, where batches are partitioned across sites and only summaries (gradient vectors) are exchanged. Instead of directing applying the popular method of Jordan et al. (2019) to the surrogate quadratic loss, our adjusted approach does not require the clients to compute the full surrogate loss. We derive non-asymptotic error bounds under the high-dimensional scaling, without the stringent constraint on the number of batches in the previous studies. Simulation results under linear and logistic models, together with a real-data application, show improved accuracy over existing renewable estimators.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

DynAMO:Dynamic Asset Management Orchestration via Topological Multi-Agent Scheduling

arXiv:2606.19382v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While LLM-powered agents offer end-to-end automation for industrial asset lifecycles, real-world Industry 4.0 deployment is hindered by latency, concurrency instability, and safety risks. We present DynAMO (Dynamic Asset Management Orchestration), a deployment-ready engine using a Plan-then-Execute architecture to generate verifiable workflow graphs. DynAMO supports both SequentialWorkflow (topological execution) and ParallelWorkflow (dependency-aware concurrency). By dynamically identifying independent tasks, DynAMO preserves structural correctness and safety while significantly improving efficiency through controlled reasoning overlap. Across six controlled experiments on the AssetOpsBench industrial benchmark, DynAMO demonstrates substantial performance and robustness gains. Parallel execution reduces end-to-end latency by a median of 1.6x over sequential orchestration, rising to 1.8x on highly parallelizable workflows. After instrumenting external tool calls with realistic latencies, a latency decomposition shows that LLM reasoning and orchestration still account for more than 90% of execution time, identifying model inference as the primary system bottleneck. Structured context pruning reduces inference latency by approximately 30%, and DynAMO maintains correct functional behaviour (task completion, agent sequencing, and output quality) while exhibiting graceful degradation under controlled fault injection. Reproducibility analysis further confirms stable execution under repeated runs, with parallel scheduling reducing latency variance. These findings establish DynAMO as a practical blueprint for scalable, safe, and latency-aware agent deployment in Industry 4.0 automation pipelines. Code is available at: https://github.com/kushwaha001/DynAMO

03.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

The Optimal Rate Function in Covariant Quantum State Tomography

arXiv:2606.16948v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The problem of quantum tomography is to estimate an unknown quantum state $\rho$ from a measurement of $n$ copies of $\rho$. One can ask which tomography protocol, i.e.\ which choice of multi-copy measurement, gives the best possible estimate of $\rho$. To do so, we characterize tomography protocols by their rate function, which governs the exponential rate at which a protocol assigns probability to a particular estimate $\sigma$ of the true state $\rho$. This rate function is a quantum mechanical generalization of the classical relative entropy between the true state and its estimate, and depends on the choice of protocol. It is bounded by the quantum relative entropy, and we show that this bound is sharp: for any $\rho$ and $\sigma$ we construct a family of protocols whose rate functions converge to the quantum relative entropy $D(\sigma\|\rho)$. We consider the family of covariant tomography protocols; these are the basis independent state estimation schemes that assume no prior information about $\rho$ and $\sigma$. Keyl described a specific tomography protocol based on Schur sampling, and conjectured that among all covariant tomography protocols it has the largest possible rate function for all $\sigma$ and $\rho$. We prove this conjecture. The resulting rate function is an annealed version of quantum relative entropy, due to the cost of learning the eigenbasis in covariant quantum state tomography.

04.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-02

Linking reduced prefrontal microcircuit inhibition in schizophrenia to EEG biomarkers in silico

by Sana Rosanally, Frank Mazza, Heng Kang Yao, Faraz Moghbel, Hannah Seo, Etay Hay Reduced cortical inhibition by parvalbumin-expressing (PV) interneurons in schizophrenia is thought to be associated with impaired processing in the prefrontal cortex and altered EEG signals such as oddball mismatch negativity (MMN). Recent studies also suggest loss of somatostatin (SST) interneuron inhibition. However, establishing the link between reduced interneuron inhibition and reduced MMN experimentally in humans is currently not possible. To overcome these challenges, we simulated spiking activity and EEG during baseline and oddball response in detailed models of human prefrontal microcircuits in health and schizophrenia, with reduced PV and SST interneuron inhibition as constrained by postmortem patient data. We showed that reduced PV interneuron inhibition can account for the decreased MMN amplitude seen in schizophrenia, with a threshold below which the amplitude effect was low as seen in at-risk patients. In contrast, reduced SST interneuron inhibition did not affect the MMN amplitude. We further showed that both types of inhibition loss were necessary to account for changes in resting EEG in schizophrenia, with reduced SST interneuron inhibition increasing broadband power, and reduced PV and SST interneuron inhibition both leading to a right shift from alpha to beta frequencies. Our study thus links reduced PV and SST interneuron inhibition in schizophrenia to distinct EEG biomarkers that can serve to improve stratification and early detection using non-invasive brain signals.

05.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-11

AGZArank: Investigating epitope-conditioned antibody binder ranking with structure-derived synthetic supervision

Computational antibody design methods can generate large libraries of candidate binders for a target epitope, but prioritizing which candidates to test experimentally remains a major bottleneck. Existing scoring approaches, including physics-based affinity estimators, structure-prediction-derived confidence measures, and inverse-folding likelihood models, provide useful proxy signals but are not explicitly optimized for early enrichment of binders among many structurally similar candidates. Here we investigate epitope-conditioned antibody binder ranking as a dedicated learning problem and introduce AGZArank, a geometric deep learning framework trained with structure-derived synthetic supervision based on normalized pseudo-energy targets. On a benchmark of 45 experimentally validated antibody-antigen interfaces, AGZArank recovered the true binder within the top ten candidates in 44.4% of cases and showed stronger generalization on post-2021 structures than ProteinMPNN, ESM-IF, and PRODIGY. Ablation experiments indicate that ranking performance depends primarily on training scale and alignment between the optimization objective and retrieval-based evaluation, rather than architectural complexity alone. These results support candidate prioritization as a distinct and tractable problem in computational antibody design.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

EARS: Explanatory Abstention for Reliable Sub-Agent Modeling in Large-scale Multi-Agent Systems

In large-scale enterprise settings, centralized multi-agent systems (MAS) are increasingly adopted, in which a coordinator delegates user requests to lightweight, domain-specialized sub-agents. While this architecture improves modularity, scalability, and cost efficiency, its reliability depends not only on accurate routing but also on sub-agents' ability to calibrate their responses to capability constraints. In particular, sub-agents built on smaller fine-tuned models often struggle with such calibration, leading them to over-answer ambiguous, underspecified, misrouted, or unsupported requests and produce hallucinated outputs instead of actionable feedback. To address this challenge, we present EARS (Explanatory Abstention for Reliable Sub-Agent Modeling), a production-oriented framework that reframes sub-agent abstention as an inter-agent communication protocol: a sub-agent does not merely abstain, but exposes an actionable failure state to the coordinator. EARS curates human-agent interaction data using an ensemble of calibrated LLM-as-a-Judge models, producing structured abstention labels and rationales under a taxonomy of sub-agent failure modes. These data are used to fine-tune sub-agents to detect failure conditions and return rationales for coordinator-level clarification, rerouting, or fallback. We evaluate EARS in a large-scale production e-commerce assistant supporting enterprise business intelligence workflows. EARS improves the overall response pass rate from 68.5% to 78.9%, demonstrating that sub-agent-side explanatory abstention improves MAS reliability.

07.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Stronger Entanglement Dies Faster: Quantum Mpemba Effect in Dissipative Qubits

arXiv:2605.23197v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In classical thermodynamics, the Mpemba effect refers to the counterintuitive observation that hot water can freeze faster than cold water, manifesting as an anomalous crossing of dynamical trajectories. While analogues of this phenomenon have been explored in open quantum systems and spin-chain entanglement asymmetry, its connection to the finite-time decoupling of quantum correlations remains elusive. In this work, we report a distinct Mpemba effect for quantum entanglement in a dissipative quantum system associated with entanglement sudden death (ESD). By analyzing two qubits interacting with local amplitude damping reservoirs, we demonstrate that a more strongly entangled initial state can experience a faster collapse into a separable state than a more weakly entangled state. This anomalous decay stems from the competition between initial coherence and excited-state population, where the latter acts as a catalyst for ESD. We provide exact analytical derivations for the trajectory crossover and ESD time, and map the phase diagram to precisely identify the parameter regime where the effect occurs. Our results offer a new strategy for controlling the lifetime of quantum resources in dissipative environments.

08.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Understanding quantum behaviors of an electron in a uniform magnetic field alternatively

arXiv:2606.13290v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Quantum mechanically, an electron moving in a uniform magnetic field forms Landau levels. A curious feature is that for states with a negative angular quantum number, the total probability current vanishes, which appears to contradict the classical picture of cyclotron motion. While a geometric interpretation based on classical orbits exists, alternative interpretations remain of interest. In this paper, we examine the probability current density and identify a critical radius that naturally partitions the plane into an inner clockwise-flow region and an outer counterclockwise-flow region. We show that the vanishing total current results from an exact cancellation between these two regions. Furthermore, by defining a partitioned kinetic angular momentum with respect to the critical radius, we reveal an intrinsic competitive structure: the electron simultaneously carries two opposing rotational components. The negative quantum number manifests in the strength of the inner counter-rotation, while the net kinetic angular momentum remains positive. This bidirectional flow picture also provides a dynamical interpretation of the infinite degeneracy of Landau levels.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Does the Question Really Matter? Training-Free Data Selection for Vision-Language SFT

arXiv:2603.09715v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Visual instruction tuning is crucial for improving vision-language large models (VLLMs). However, many samples can be solved via linguistic patterns or common-sense shortcuts, without genuine cross-modal reasoning, limiting the effectiveness of multimodal learning. Prior data selection methods often rely on costly proxy model training and focus on difficulty or diversity, failing to capture a sample's true contribution to vision-language joint reasoning. In this paper, we propose CVS, a training-free data selection method based on the insight that, for high-quality multimodal samples, introducing the question should substantially alter the model's assessment of answer validity given an image. CVS leverages a frozen VLLM as an evaluator and measures the discrepancy in answer validity with and without conditioning on the question, enabling the identification of samples that require vision-language joint reasoning while filtering semantic-conflict noise. Experiments on Vision-Flan and The Cauldron show that CVS achieves solid performance across datasets. On Vision-Flan, CVS outperforms full-data training by 3.5% and 4.8% using only 10% and 15% of the data, respectively, and remains robust on the highly heterogeneous Cauldron dataset. Moreover, CVS reduces computational cost by 17.3% and 44.4% compared to COINCIDE and XMAS.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Towards More General Control of Diffusion Models Using Jeffrey Guidance

A key strength of diffusion models lies in their flexibility, since their outputs can be controlled at sampling time through guidance. However, beyond simple cases such as conditional sampling, the target distribution is often left implicit, defined only through a sampling rule or a heuristic energy function. To address this, we propose Jeffrey guidance, a principled framework that extends diffusion-model control to applications beyond what standard guidance can express. It leverages Jeffrey's rule of conditioning to update marginal distributions towards a prescribed target, preserving the conditional structure and minimally perturbing the joint distribution. We first demonstrate Jeffrey guidance by targeting a prescribed embedding distribution. With Inception embeddings as the target, this leads to substantial reductions in FID on both CIFAR-10 and FFHQ. We further apply Jeffrey guidance to fairness on CelebA-HQ, updating an unconditional diffusion model to enforce independence between attributes.

11.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Associations of Chemical Exposures with Psychological Distress and Depression Diagnosis among Waste Pickers in Brasilia, Brazil: A Cross-Sectional Study

Introduction: Waste pickers face chemical exposures. We evaluated whether chemical exposure is associated with psychological distress and depression. Methods: A 2017 cross-sectional survey included 1,141 waste pickers working in the Estrutural open dump in Brasilia, Brazil. Participants self-reported occupational exposure to 11 chemical categories, 17 psychological distress symptoms, and depression diagnoses. Associations of chemical exposure with mean psychological distress scores and depression prevalence were assessed, adjusted for age, sex, marital status, and income. Results: Mean psychological distress score was higher among those exposed to any chemical (mean of 8.1 vs 6.1; adjusted mean difference [aMD]: 1.8 [0.9, 2.7]) and higher among those exposed to each of 11 chemical categories, for example, smoke (aMD: 1.2 [0.6, 1.7]), batteries (aMD: 1.5 [1.0, 1.9], and oils (aMD: 1.3 [0.9, 1.8]). Depression was more prevalent among those exposed to oils (16.6% vs 10.6%; adjusted prevalence difference [aPD]: 6.3% [95% CI: 2.3, 10.2]), cleaning products (aPD: 5.4% [1.2, 9.5]), medications (aPD: 4.7% [0.6, 8.8]), and aerosols (aPD: 5.3% [1.3, 9.3]) but, not smoke, batteries, greases, insecticides, solvents, paints, chemical containers, or any chemical. Conclusion: These associations highlight the need to consider policy level protections for waste pickers to reduce chemical exposure and guard against psychological distress. Further research is necessary to explore which specific chemicals, within broad chemical categories, are associated with psychological distress and depression.

12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Entanglement improves coordination in distributed systems

arXiv:2602.04588v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Coordination in distributed systems is often hampered by communication latency, which degrades performance. Quantum entanglement offers fundamentally stronger correlations than classically achievable without communication. Crucially, these correlations manifest instantaneously upon measurement, irrespective of the physical distance separating the systems. We investigate the application of shared entanglement to a dual-work optimization problem in a distributed system comprising two servers. The system must process both a continuously available, preemptible baseline task and incoming customer requests arriving in pairs. System performance is characterized by the trade-off between baseline task throughput and customer waiting time. We present a rigorous analytical model demonstrating that when the baseline task throughput function is strictly convex, rewarding longer uninterrupted processing periods, entanglement-assisted routing strategies achieve Pareto-superior performance compared to optimal communication-free classical strategies. We prove this advantage through queueing-theoretic analysis, non-local game formulation, and computational certification of classical bounds. Our results identify distributed scheduling and coordination as a novel application domain for near-term entanglement-based quantum networks.

13.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Spectral analysis of equilibration: information leakage in isolated quantum systems

arXiv:2606.12545v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We develop a unified dynamical-spectral framework for equilibration in isolated quantum systems based on a subspace coarse-graining approach. Central to our formulation is the Leakage Fidelity Function (LFF), defined as the probability that a unitarily evolving state escapes the support of its initial subspace. This quantity provides a direct, operational measure of information flow and memory loss without invoking ensemble assumptions or perturbative arguments. We derive universal bounds on temporal fluctuations of the LFF, in terms of the spectral gap structure and the square of the effective dimension, evincing that large spectral delocalization suppresses fluctuations and guarantees equilibration on average. By introducing spectral power distributions and associated entropic measures, we establish a quantitative link between phase mixing, gap participation, and dynamical stability. We further investigate the equilibration timescale by connecting the LFF to quantum speed limits, thereby revealing the average time required for equilibration. Our results provide a state-dependent, geometrically transparent perspective on how spectral complexity and subspace information leakage jointly govern irreversibility in closed quantum many-body systems.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

UR-BERT: Scaling Text Encoders for Massively Multilingual TTS Through Universal Romanization and Speech Token Prediction

We propose UR-BERT, a Romanized transcription-based text-to-speech (TTS) encoder for massively multilingual TTS systems. Conventional grapheme-to-phoneme (G2P)-based approaches are limited to around 100 languages due to the availability of reliable G2P resources. In contrast, UR-BERT scales to 495 languages by unifying diverse writing systems into a shared Romanization representation. To further enhance phonetic fidelity and text-speech alignment, we introduce a speech token prediction objective during training, which encourages the encoder to learn speech-aware phonetic representations in a data-efficient manner. Experiments show that TTS systems built on UR-BERT consistently outperform recent text encoder baselines across a wide range of languages and resource conditions, and demonstrate strong generalization to unseen languages.

15.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

A mathematical study of the excess growth rate

arXiv:2510.25740v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The excess growth rate, defined as the gap in Jensen's inequality for the logarithm, is a fundamental functional in portfolio theory. In this paper, we present a mathematical study motivated by information theory. We begin by establishing its properties and showing that it has rich connections with information theoretic concepts such as the Helmholtz free energy, L. Campbell's measure of average code length and large deviations. Our main results consist of three axiomatic characterization theorems of the excess growth rate, in terms of (i) the relative entropy, (ii) the gap in Jensen's inequality, and (iii) the logarithmic divergence that generalizes the Bregman divergence. Furthermore, we study maximization of the excess growth rate and compare it with the growth optimal portfolio. Our results not only provide theoretical justifications of the significance of the excess growth rate, but also establish new connections between information theory and quantitative finance.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

Aligning Implied Statements for Implicit Hate Speech Generalizability with Context-Bounded Semi-hard Negative Mining

Classifying implicit hate speech remains a challenge, as intent is often masked through insinuation and context rather than explicit slurs. Prior supervised contrastive approaches improve in-domain detection but can overfit surface cues and struggle to transfer across datasets. We propose ImpSH, a triplet-based framework that aligns posts with implied statements when available and uses context-bounded semi-hard negatives to focus learning on near confusions. We also examine AugSH, which forms positives via data augmentation. In controlled evaluations on IHC, SBIC, and DynaHate with BERT and HateBERT, ImpSH is a viable alternative to standard supervised contrastive baselines and often improves cross-domain performance under matched preprocessing and tuning budgets. Representation analysis using alignment and uniformity indicates tighter positive pairs with balanced global spread, and qualitative nearest-neighbor case studies illustrate typical false negatives under domain shift. These results demonstrate that aligning posts with their implied statements via context-bounded mining provides a more stable, bijective-like mapping to related insinuations, overcoming the volatility inherent in traditional clustering-based representation learning.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

LaGO: Latent Action Guidance for Online Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.24669v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong potential for planning and sequential decision-making, but prior work often relies on using them as direct controllers, which requires precise action generation and can be unreliable in practice. This paper proposes Latent Action Guidance for Online Reinforcement Learning (LaGO), a framework that uses a pretrained LLM as a latent action prior to softly guide online policy optimization, rather than treating the LLM as an explicit planner or controller. Experiments on both a discrete-control benchmark, CLEVR-Robot, and a continuous-control benchmark, Meta-World, demonstrate that LaGO consistently improves both reward and success rate over Vanilla PPO. In particular, LaGO increases the average success rate from 15.1% to 27.2% on CLEVR-Robot and from 2.7% to 15.2% on Meta-World. Our analysis further shows that stronger pretrained LLMs provide more effective guidance, suggesting that LLM knowledge can improve planning and online decision-making.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

The Accountability Paradox: How Platform API Restrictions Undermine AI Transparency Mandates

arXiv:2505.11577v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent application programming interface (API) restrictions on major social media platforms challenge compliance with the EU Digital Services Act [20], which mandates data access for algorithmic transparency. We develop a structured audit framework to assess the growing misalignment between regulatory requirements and platform implementations. Our comparative analysis of X/Twitter, Reddit, TikTok, and Meta identifies critical ``audit blind-spots'' where platform content moderation and algorithmic amplification remain inaccessible to independent verification. Our findings reveal an ``accountability paradox'': as platforms increasingly rely on AI systems, they simultaneously restrict the capacity for independent oversight. We propose targeted policy interventions aligned with the AI Risk Management Framework of the National Institute of Standards and Technology [80], emphasizing federated access models and enhanced regulatory enforcement.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Physics in 2-Steps: Locking Motion Priors Before Visual Refinement Erases Them

Image-to-Video diffusion models leverage input images to generate visually stunning content, yet frequently produce motion that violates physical laws. We reveal a surprising finding: a 2-step generation often exhibits better physical consistency than a 50-step output from the same model. Through spectral analysis, we trace this to phase erosion during denoising; the phase degrades significantly (dropping by $\approx 18\%$ from step 2 to step 50), whereas the magnitude remains relatively stable. Building on this insight, we propose PhaseLock, a training-free framework that preserves the valid motion priors from few-step inference throughout the denoising trajectory. Rather than relying on full-step inference for physical consistency, PhaseLock extracts a motion prior from just 2 steps and enforces it onto high-fidelity generation via Latent Delta Guidance. Our approach effectively mitigates phase degradation, improving physical consistency by an average of 6.2 points across diverse models while largely maintaining visual fidelity, with negligible overhead ($1.06\times$ time, $1.02\times$ memory) and reduced reliance on expensive external guidance methods ($\sim5\times$ time). Project Page: https://dnwjddl.github.io/phaselock

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

From Memorization to Parameter Interference: How Overtraining Experts Harms Model Merging

arXiv:2506.14126v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Modern deep learning is increasingly characterized by the use of open-weight foundation models that can be fine-tuned on specialized datasets. This has led to a proliferation of expert models and adapters, often shared via platforms like HuggingFace and AdapterHub. Model merging has recently emerged as an effective way to leverage these existing resources, enabling the composition of capabilities from different model checkpoints. A natural pipeline has thus formed to harness the benefits of transfer learning and amortize sunk training costs: models are pre-trained on general data, fine-tuned on specific tasks, and then multiple checkpoints are merged to obtain a more capable model. A prevailing assumption is that improvements at one stage of this pipeline propagate downstream, leading to gains at subsequent steps. In this work, we challenge that assumption by examining how expert fine-tuning affects model merging. We show that long fine-tuning of experts that optimizes for their individual performance leads to degraded merging performance across vision and language modalities, multiple model scales, and both fully fine-tuned and LoRA-adapted models. We trace this degradation to the memorization of a small set of difficult examples that dominate late fine-tuning steps. This causes negative parameter interference and encodes knowledge that is forgotten during merging. Finally, we demonstrate that task-dependent aggressive early stopping strategies can significantly improve model merging performance.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

MolE-RAG: Molecular Structure-Enhanced Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Chemistry

arXiv:2606.05693v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise for molecular property prediction, but their ability to reason over chemical structures remains limited, as molecular representations such as SMILES differ substantially from the natural language on which LLMs are primarily trained. To bridge this semantic and chemical knowledge gap, we propose MolE-RAG, a training-free, molecule-centric retrieval-augmented generation framework for LLM-based molecular property prediction. MolE-RAG augments each prediction with three complementary sources of inference-time context: retrieved chemistry literature, molecule-specific information including compound synonyms, identifiers, functional group annotations, and physicochemical descriptors, and structurally similar molecules retrieved from the training set. We evaluate MolE-RAG across nine molecular property prediction tasks using proprietary, chemistry-specialized, and open-source LLMs. Across general-purpose LLMs, MolE-RAG improves ROC-AUC by up to 28 percentage points on classification tasks and reduces regression RMSE by up to 67% relative to a SMILES-only baseline. We further find that the utility of each context source varies across models and tasks, with different models benefiting most from textual retrieval, molecular context, or structural retrieval. These results suggest that molecule-centric retrieval can improve LLM-based molecular property prediction without model fine-tuning while providing a flexible framework for integrating heterogeneous chemical knowledge at inference time.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Neural ARFIMA model for forecasting BRIC exchange rates with long memory

arXiv:2509.06697v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Exchange rate forecasting remains a challenging problem, particularly for emerging economies, where the observed time series exhibit pronounced long-memory dependence, nonlinear dynamics, and sensitivity to macro-financial drivers. Classical models such as ARFIMA capture long-range persistence but fail to adequately represent nonlinear relationships, while modern machine learning approaches often neglect the underlying long-memory structure in macroeconomic series. To address this gap, we propose a Neural AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (NARFIMA) model that integrates ARFIMA-based long-memory modeling with neural networks for nonlinear function approximation, while incorporating exogenous macroeconomic and uncertainty indicators. The framework provides a unified approach for capturing persistence, nonlinear dynamics, and external shocks. We establish asymptotic stationarity of the NARFIMA process and develop conformal prediction intervals for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. Empirical results for BRIC exchange rates show that NARFIMA consistently outperforms a broad range of forecasting benchmarks across multiple horizons, underscoring the importance of explicitly modeling long-memory dependence in exchange rate dynamics. The `narfima' R package provides an implementation of our approach.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

ARIA: Adaptive Region-Based Importance Allocation for Conditional Diffusion Distillation

arXiv:2606.23898v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Distilling conditional diffusion models aims to transfer the behavior of a large teacher to a smaller student while preserving alignment across conditioning inputs. Unlike recognition tasks, knowledge distillation in conditional diffusion often struggles to transfer knowledge beyond the training distribution, since the predicted noise strongly depends on the conditioning signal. As a result, effective distillation requires exploring a large conditioning space. In practical settings, this creates a major bottleneck. Paired image-condition data may be limited, and generating synthetic images for every available condition is often computationally infeasible, while the pool of conditions, such as text prompts, can be extremely large. Recent work addresses this issue by switching conditions during training, exposing the student to a broader conditioning space without changing the distillation objective. Yet this raises a complementary question: once a large conditioning corpus is available, how should the training effort be allocated? In this work, we introduce ARIA, a framework that adaptively allocates training effort across coarse regions of the conditioning space. By maintaining online estimates of teacher-student discrepancy at the region level, ARIA focuses updates where misalignment persists while preserving the original distillation objective. Empirically, ARIA improves over RC across most architectures and settings, with the clearest gains observed in unseen and underrepresented regimes. We also provide a theoretical analysis showing that the proposed tracking mechanism follows the evolving discrepancy during training under bounded variance and drift assumptions.

24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-24

REM universality and Poisson-Dirichlet Gibbs weights for linear random energy

arXiv:2606.07757v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the Hamiltonian $H_n(h,\sigma)=\sum_{i=1}^n h_i(\sigma_i-m), $ where $(h_i)$ are i.i.d.\ real random variables and $(\sigma_i)$ are i.i.d.\ Ising spins. We consider the energy levels obtained after an independent thinning that retains an exponential number of configurations ($e^{O(n)}$). We prove that, after an $(h_i)$-dependent centering, the resulting point process converges in distribution to a Poisson point process with exponential intensity. Thus, the energy levels asymptotically has the one of the Random Energy Model (REM). Our results extend previous ones, where REM universality for this model was established only either for energy fluctuations of order $e^{-O(n)}$ or for $e^{o(\sqrt n)}$ randomly selected configurations. We also identify the limiting Gibbs weights, which converge to a Poisson–Dirichlet law, and the quenched free energy, which exhibits a freezing transition at $\beta=\tilde\lambda$. The proofs are presented here in compressed form; full details are given in the companion preprint.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Triangular-Reference Schrödinger Bridges for Time Series Generation

arXiv:2605.27478v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Schrödinger bridges for time series (SBTS) generate synthetic paths by projecting, in relative entropy, a Brownian reference onto the path laws that match the joint distribution of the data on the observation grid. The Brownian reference, however, fixes the quadratic variation of the generated paths, which is restrictive when stochastic volatility, correlated noise, or rank-deficient covariance structures must be reproduced. We introduce "Triangular-Reference Schrödinger Bridges for Time Series" (TR-SBTS), which keeps the entropy-projection backbone of SBTS but replaces the Brownian reference by a triangular, volatility-informed, intervalwise frozen reference on a state augmented with latent covariance descriptors. The construction remains a single entropy projection on the augmented state: the minimiser is the \(h\)-transform of the reference, and on each frozen interval the optimal drift has the logarithmic-gradient form \(b^\star(t,x)=A\,\nabla\log H(t,x)\), intrinsic to the active covariance directions when the frozen covariance \(A\) is degenerate. We prove stability of the frozen approximation and consistency of the associated regularised kernel estimators, describe a reference-aware Nadaraya–Watson implementation of the conditional next-increment law, and evaluate the construction on numerical experiments.