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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Beyond Averaging in John Ellipsoid Approximation: High-Accuracy Algorithms in the Leverage-Score Model

arXiv:2606.20082v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The John ellipsoid of a symmetric polytope $P=\{\mathbf{x}\in\mathbb{R}^d:\|\mathbf{A}\mathbf{x}\|_\infty\le1\}$, $\mathbf{A}\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$, is computed by a long line of leverage-score algorithms, from Cohen, Cousins, Lee and Yang (COLT 2019) to its successors [WY24, CLS+25], all reaching a $(1+\varepsilon)$-approximation in $\Theta(\varepsilon^{-1}\log(n/d))$ iterations. We separate this complexity into three costs the modern line conflates (certification, identification, and accuracy) and locate the historical $\varepsilon^{-1}$ in the first alone. In the equivalent D-optimal-design form $\min_{\mathbf{p}\in\Delta_n}-\log\det(\sum_i p_i\mathbf{a}_i\mathbf{a}_i^\top)$, the leverage-score oracle is exactly the first-order oracle and the $(1+\varepsilon)$-John guarantee the Frank-Wolfe gap $g(\mathbf{p})\le\varepsilon d$; through this dictionary the costs come apart. The $\varepsilon^{-1}$ is a certification artifact: the uniform average of the iterates, the certificate used throughout the line, has gap exactly $\Theta(1/T)$, however cheap each iteration is made. Pointed instead at the last iterate the same oracle is fast: a warm-started accelerated method reaches the guarantee in $C(\mathbf{A})+O(\sqrt{\kappa}\log(1/\varepsilon))$ queries after an $\varepsilon$-independent setup $C(\mathbf{A})$, and once the optimal face is identified the facial problem is an unconstrained self-concordant minimization whose Hessian the oracle recovers exactly, so damped Newton needs only $O(\log\log(1/\varepsilon))$ steps, for a total of $C(\mathbf{A})+O(d^2\log\log(1/\varepsilon))$ queries. The accuracy dependence is thus doubly logarithmic after an $\varepsilon$-independent, condition-dependent setup; the open problem is the remaining identification cost (a condition-free bound on reaching the optimal face) and lower bounds. Accuracy is not the obstruction.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Tight $L_\infty$ Sample Complexity for Low-Degree and Sparse Boolean Polynomials

arXiv:2606.17319v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Motivated by the optimization of bounded binary black-box functions, we study the problem of learning polynomial surrogates over the Boolean hypercube. To ensure that optimizing the surrogate yields good solutions for the underlying objective, we require uniform $L_\infty$-error guarantees rather than the usual $L_2$-type guarantees. We characterize the minimax sample complexity of uniform estimation under subgaussian noise for two classes of bounded polynomials. First, for polynomials of degree at most $d$ on $n$ variables, the sample complexity scales as $n^{d+1}$. Second, for $s$-sparse Fourier-Walsh polynomials with $s \leq n$, it scales as $ns^2$. These rates differ structurally from the noiseless setting, where uniform exact recovery scales as $n^d$ and $ns$, respectively. Our lower bounds hold even for arbitrary adaptive learners, showing that the additional factors are intrinsic to the noisy cases. Standard Fourier-analysis tools for the $L_2$-norm do not naturally extend to the $L_\infty$-setting in a way that yields uniform guarantees. Our proofs overcome this difficulty by relying on suitably chosen auxiliary norms that serve as proxies for controlling the $L_\infty$-error. Together, our results provide a tight characterization of the sample complexity of learning optimization-safe polynomial surrogates.

03.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

A Lindbladian for holographic Brownian motion

Authors:

arXiv:2606.17909v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We derive a Lindbladian description of holographic Brownian motion in the high-temperature regime. Starting from the influence functional for a trailing string endpoint, we identify the corresponding quantum master equation and prove that it is completely positive and trace-preserving. We determine the coefficients of the Lindbladian explicitly for two holographic backgrounds: the BTZ black hole and the AdS$_5$ black brane, restricting in the latter case to the endpoint fluctuation along the $x^1$-direction. We then analyze the time evolution of phase-space moments, energy relaxation, and steady states.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

MakeupMirror: Improving Facial Attribute Preservation in Diffusion Models for Makeup Transfer

arXiv:2606.20094v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Makeup transfer models enable fun augmented reality (AR) experiences as well as virtual try-on (VTO) for online makeup shopping. While recent state-of-the-art diffusion based solutions such as Stable-Makeup dramatically improve the accuracy and realism of makeup transfer, they still face limitations in identity and skin color preservation, making production-level VTO for makeup shopping unrealistic. In this work, we propose MakeupMirror, a diffusion-based approach to makeup transfer that makes significant progress towards preserving facial features and skin tone. We introduce several technical innovations over Stable-Makeup: (1) integration of facial geometry conditioning with ControlNets to maintain facial fidelity; (2) region-specific makeup transfer control to enable precise makeup application across facial regions such as skin, eyes and lips; (3) skin tone-based makeup transfer modulation that prevent skin tone alteration in cross-subject transfer scenarios; and (4) integration of a Levenberg-Marquardt Langevin sampler to speed up inference while maintaining generation quality. Our experiments on CPM-Real, Makeup Wild, and (herein newly collected, more diverse) MakeupSelfies datasets show that MakeupMirror improves relative facial recognition similarity by +60%, reduces relative skin tone difference by -50% over Stable-Makeup, with a latency of 0.7s, while achieving expert acceptance rate of 94% across core facial identity preservation criteria.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

Smol-GS: Compact Representations for Abstract 3D Gaussian Splatting

We present Smol-GS, a novel method for learning compact representations for 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS). Our approach learns highly efficient splat-wise features to model 3D space, which capture abstracted cues, including color, opacity, transformation, and material properties. We propose octree-derived positional encoding, which explicitly models spatial locality and enhances representation efficiency. We further apply entropy-based compression to exploit feature redundancy and compress splat coordinates using a recursive voxel hierarchy. This design enables orders-of-magnitude reduction in storage while preserving representation flexibility. Smol-GS achieves state-of-the-art compression performance on standard benchmarks with high-level rendering quality.

06.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Poly-Social Risk for Hypertension Among Black and Latina Women

Background: Hypertension is a leading modifiable cardiovascular risk factor prominently influenced by health-related social needs (HRSN). Whether detailed information on HRSN can improve identification of hypertension among minoritized women is unknown. Methods: Black and Latina women aged 18-65 years completed the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Accountable Health Communities Screening Tool, assessing 13 HRSN domains. Hypertension was ascertained by a validated EHR-based algorithm or self-report of hypertension. Logistic regression tested associations of HRSN with hypertension. LASSO regression with 10-fold cross-validation was used to derive a poly-social risk score in the training set (random 70%) and tested in the validation set (30%) against a sociodemographic model (age, race, income, education). Results: Among 1302 participants (mean [SD] age 40.1 [11.3] years, 70.4% Black, 44.3% Latina), higher cumulative burden of HRSN was associated with increased odds of hypertension (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for each additional domain of HRSN: 1.07 [95% CI 1.01-1.14], P=0.02). Food insecurity (aOR 2.30 [1.37-3.87], P= 0.002), lapse in utilities (aOR 1.44 [1.04-1.96], P=0.02), poor concentration (aOR 1.57 [1.13-2.17], P=0.007), and social isolation (aOR 1.77 [1.14-2.73], P=0.01) were associated with hypertension. In the validation set, the poly-social risk score did not improve discrimination for hypertension vs. the sociodemographic model (AUC 0.76 [95% CI 0.71-0.81] vs. AUC 0.80 [0.75-0.85]). Conclusion: In this cross-sectional analysis of Black and Latina women, greater cumulative social disadvantage was associated with hypertension. While inclusion of HRSN did not improve hypertension prediction beyond conventional sociodemographic indices, findings may inform targeted interventions among minorities at cardiometabolic risk.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

An AI Security Agent for Banking: Multi-Vector Fraud and AML Detection Across Retail and Corporate Accounts

arXiv:2606.17555v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Banks simultaneously face signature-based fraud (card-not-present attacks, account takeover, ATM cloning) and behavioural financial crime (structuring, layering, mule networks, business email compromise) – two threat families with fundamentally different detection requirements. Static rule engines that reliably catch brute-force and high-velocity events are structurally blind to business-email-compromise (BEC) payment redirection, session hijacking, and money-laundering layering, which are engineered to appear indistinguishable from legitimate activity at the individual transaction or session level. This paper presents an AI security agent for retail and corporate banking that addresses this gap through a three-component fusion architecture operating on two parallel event streams: a transaction stream (card fraud, ACH/wire fraud, AML categories) and a session stream (account takeover, session hijacking, SIM-swap, insider abuse). Each stream combines an LSTM sequence model capturing per-account behavioural history, a statistical velocity/threshold monitor, and a graph/network module capturing account-counterparty relationship patterns (fan-in, fan-out, pass-through ratio) for money-laundering detection. Experiments on a synthetic event log of 237,669 transactions and 113,508 sessions across 13 threat categories and 3,470 simulated accounts demonstrate overall F1 of 0.787 (transaction stream) and 0.867 (session stream) for the proposed model, versus 0.562/0.733 for a rule-based baseline and 0.655/0.713 for an LSTM-only baseline. The agent includes a customer-facing transaction-verification chatbot (96.6% identity verification accuracy, 86.8% mass-reset attack detection) and an analyst case-summary assistant (99.3% action-recommendation F1), with Critical-tier automated response latency under 0.43 ms at the 95th percentile.

08.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-12

ProMiSE: Protein Multi-State Evaluation Benchmark in Biological Contexts

Proteins are inherently dynamic, with biological functions often emerging from transitions between multiple conformational states. While recent breakthroughs have largely addressed the static structure prediction problem, no systematic benchmark exists to demonstrate how well current models capture functionally relevant dynamics. We introduce ProMiSE, the first benchmark that provides both a dataset and an evaluation scheme, based on native biological assemblies and integrating major conformational change mechanisms - intrinsic, ligand-induced, and protein-induced - within a single curated dataset. We conducted a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art structure prediction models, including AlphaFold3 and recent generative approaches. Our findings reveal that current models exhibit a limited ability to sample intrinsic multi-states and are often insensitive to biological context in induced scenarios. Internal representation analysis suggests that training-data exposure can shift predictions toward dominant conformational states over alternative biologically relevant states, primarily at the structure module. In contrast, results from BioEmu indicate that reducing decoding-stage bias can substantially improve multi-state sampling without major changes to upstream pair representations.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Robust State-Conditional Feature-Weighted Jump Models for Temporal Clustering

arXiv:2606.13146v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a robust feature-weighted jump model for time-dependent clustering. A penalty is used to encourage smoothness of transitions over time, while robustness is achieved through the use of a Tukey's biweight loss function. An additional parameter controls the variability of feature weights across states, allowing the model to assign state-specific relevance to each feature. We illustrate in simulation how the method accurately recovers the true cluster sequence and reliably identifies relevant features, outperforming competing approaches, particularly in the presence of outliers. We conclude with two empirical applications, one on the number of conflict-related homicides in Kosovo in the period 1998-2000, and another on macroeconomic performance of twelve European countries in the period 1949-2024.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Estimating Tail Risks in Language Model Output Distributions

arXiv:2604.22167v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Language models are increasingly capable and are being rapidly deployed on a population-level scale. As a result, the safety of these models is increasingly high-stakes. Fortunately, advances in alignment have significantly reduced the likelihood of harmful model outputs. However, when models are queried billions of times in a day, even rare worst-case behaviors will occur. Current safety evaluations focus on capturing the distribution of inputs that yield harmful outputs. These evaluations disregard the probabilistic nature of models and their tail output behavior. To measure this tail risk, we propose a method to efficiently estimate the probability of harmful outputs for any input query. Instead of naive brute-force sampling from the target model, where harmful outputs could be rare, we operationalize importance sampling by creating unsafe versions of the target model. These unsafe versions enable sample-efficient estimation by making harmful outputs more probable. On benchmarks measuring misuse and misalignment, these estimates match brute-force Monte Carlo estimates using 10-20x fewer samples. For example, we can estimate probability of harmful outputs on the order of 10^-4 with just 500 samples. Additionally, we find that these harmfulness estimates can reveal the sensitivity of models to perturbations in model input and predict deployment risks. Our work demonstrates that accurate rare-event estimation is both critical and feasible for safety evaluations. Code is available at https://github.com/rangell/LMTailRisk

11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

TRON: Tracing Rays to Orchestrate a Neural Renderer for 3D Gaussian Reconstructions

We introduce TRON, a rendering framework that combines 3D Gaussian ray tracing with neural rendering to enable realistic and controllable rendering of real-world 3D scenes under novel lighting, dynamic object motion, object insertion, and material editing. Prior approaches that rely solely on physically based rendering (PBR) of Gaussian representations struggle to achieve realistic relighting due to imperfections in reconstructed geometry, material estimates, and light transport estimation. At the same time, neural rendering methods often lack an explicit scene representation, limiting their ability to support interactive editing with fine-grained manipulation. TRON bridges these two paradigms. We use intrinsic decomposition priors from a learned inverse rendering model to regularize the material properties of a Gaussian field, and repurpose a ray tracer to provide radiometric guidance rather than final pixels. By treating this output as a structured 3D scaffold, we empower a lightweight neural renderer to bridge the domain gap between shading-model constrained estimates and photorealistic output. Our key insight is that the combination of explicit 3D knowledge with robust material priors provides speed and controllability, while neural rendering enables the synthesis of photorealistic images. To support real-world scenarios, we train our neural renderer with a multi-stage strategy consisting of large-scale pretraining and targeted fine-tuning on a newly constructed dataset of 2.1M rendered synthetic and real-world frames from 3D reconstructions. TRON outperforms Gaussian-based relighting methods in realism, and prior neural renderers in editability and speed. To the best of our knowledge, TRON is the first method to enable practical interactive applications in captured 3D environments, offering realistic appearance under dynamic geometric, lighting and material conditions.

12.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Macrophage-targeted glucocorticoid prodrug resolves acute inflammation while preserving HPA axis function: mechanistic, preclinical, and Phase II/III clinical evidence

Glucocorticoids (GCs) remain the fastest-acting anti-inflammatory agents but are constrained by systemic exposure that suppresses the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis, silences adaptive immunity, and drives chronic toxicities. Chronic inflammatory diseases are sustained by long-lived CD206+ macrophages containing immune-resistant pathogenic material not cleared physiologically. We developed 101-PGC-005 ('005), a macrophage-targeted type 1a dexamethasone prodrug engineered for low-affinity, recycling-compatible uptake via CD206, with intracellular release triggered by acidic endosomes. We evaluated '005 in mechanistic assays, pathogen-diverse preclinical models, three human pharmacokinetic (PK) studies, and an adaptive-design randomized Phase II/III trial in 309 hospitalized patients with moderate COVID-19. In two completed Phase I human studies, a first-in-human dose-escalation and repeated-dose study and a dedicated single/multiple-dose PK and safety study; '005 circulated as intact prodrug with rapid systemic clearance (Tmax ~0.5 h; terminal half-life ~1.9 h), with no measurable free dexamethasone after single dosing and only low, clinically non-significant free dexamethasone after repeated dosing, and intact prodrug recovered unchanged in urine. Morning cortisol and ACTH were preserved after 30 mg once daily for three consecutive days (1.5 times the intended therapeutic dose). A cerebrospinal fluid PK study is evaluating central-compartment penetration. In the Phase II/III trial, powered for non-inferiority, conducted across six sites in India under GCP with Ministry of Health approval and independent DSMB oversight; '005 (20 mg IV daily for 3 days) was superior to dexamethasone (6 mg IV daily for 3 -10 days) on the primary endpoint of time to > a 2-point improvement on the WHO ordinal scale (HR 2.31; 95% CI 1.83-2.93; p < 0.0001; median 3 vs. 4 days). '005 was also superior on viral clearance (HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.17-1.84; p = 0.0001), hospital discharge rate, SpO2; recovery, and fever resolution. Zero patients in the '005 arm received investigator-initiated corticosteroid supplementation despite protocol allowance. All 309 randomized patients completed the study (ITT = per-protocol). Safety profiles were equivalent (TEAEs 54.8% vs 54.5%; p = 0.958), with no Grade 3+ events, SAEs, deaths, or discontinuations in either arm. Mechanistically, '005 delivered dual benefit: acute debulking of inflammatory macrophages and selective depletion of chronically activated pathology-sustaining macrophages, while preserving CXCL10 antiviral signaling and physiologic HPA control. Critically, HPA preservation is not merely a safety feature, it is a core efficacy mechanism: by clearing the pathogenic macrophage burden that was overriding HPA regulation, '005 restores the conditions for endogenous cortisol to resume its pulsatile, demand-responsive anti-inflammatory role across all GR-expressing cells, lymphocytes, endothelial cells, neurons, and newly differentiated macrophages, that '005 itself cannot reach. These findings support regulatory-grade evidence for macrophage-targeted corticosteroid therapy and provide the foundation for further development across acute inflammatory indications (sepsis, viral pneumonia, cytokine-release syndromes) and chronic macrophage-driven diseases (atherosclerosis, metabolic steatohepatitis, neurodegeneration, tumor-associated macrophages).

13.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Exploring Variational Entanglement Hamiltonians

arXiv:2505.10530v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent advances in analog and digital quantum-simulation platforms have enabled exploration of the spectrum of entanglement Hamiltonians via variational algorithms. In this work we analyze the convergence properties of the variationally obtained solutions and compare them to numerically exact calculations in quantum critical systems. We demonstrate that interpreting the cost functional as an integral permits the deployment of iterative quadrature schemes, thereby reducing the required number of measurements by more than an order of magnitude even in the presence of noise. We further show that a modified ansatz captures deviations from the Bisognano-Wichmann form in lattice models, improves convergence, improves trainability and provides a cost-function-level diagnostic for quantum phase transitions. Finally, we establish that a low cost value does not by itself guarantee convergence in trace distance. Nevertheless, it faithfully reproduces degeneracies and spectral gaps, which are essential for applications to topological phases.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

The Hidden Power of Scaling Factor in LoRA Optimization

arXiv:2606.12883v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), the scaling factor $\alpha$ is often treated as a mere complement to the learning rate, yet its role in optimization remains poorly understood. In this paper, we reveal that the scaling factor $\alpha$ and the learning rate function differently, with $\alpha$ emerging as the dominant driver of effective optimization, delivering gains that cannot be replicated by learning rate scaling alone. Through the synergy of extensive empirical analysis and a theoretical Signal-Drift framework, we uncover three findings into LoRA's scaling mechanism: First, LoRA's spectral suppression smooths the optimization landscape, rendering standard hyperparameters overly conservative and creating an optimization gap. Second, when leveraging this smoothness to accelerate convergence, $\alpha$ outperforms the learning rate by amplifying the task signal without increasing the drift ratio. Third, the optimal scaling factor follows a sublinear relationship with the rank, well characterized by a square-root law with an unexpectedly large coefficient, revealing the insufficient scaling of existing rank-tied heuristics. Based on these insights, we propose LoRA-$\alpha$, a minimalist framework that restores $\alpha$ to its principled regime, making LoRA compatible with standard small learning rates. Extensive evaluations across diverse tasks demonstrate that LoRA-$\alpha$ consistently improves performance while streamlining hyperparameter search, unleashing the learning potential of LoRA.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

From Sparse and Imperfect 2D Anchors to Consistent 3D Gaussian Street Scenes: Support-Aware Appearance

Image priors can synthesize target conditions for 3D Gaussian street scenes, but independently edited views do not define a coherent 3D target. Direct fitting can propagate view-specific noise, while existing pipelines do not jointly handle imperfect sparse anchors and standard-rasterizer deployment. To address this gap, teacher-relative appearance residual distillation is introduced for appearance baking. A structured space for frequency decomposition, confidence estimation, and primitive-level lifting is formed by residuals between teacher anchors and original renders. The direct optimization signal is supplied by renderer-space matching, while primitive assignment is regularized by support-aware Gaussian-space aggregation. Supported detail is admitted and unsupported noise is suppressed through confidence-gated coarse-to-fine optimization, after which all residuals are baked into fixed-geometry spherical-harmonic coefficients. The teacher and auxiliary training modules are discarded at inference. Evaluation across Waymo street assets, Tanks and Temples scenes, and multiple target conditions shows a favorable overall balance of target alignment, content preservation, artifact suppression, and cross-view consistency over editing-based baselines. Ablations confirm the effectiveness of the main components. Code will be released at https://github.com/Cagares/Baking-for-3D-Gaussian.

16.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Survival differences and artemisinin resistance in severe malaria among HIV coinfected patients: data from Mozambique

Abstract Background Malaria remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where rates of HIV coinfection are high. This study aimed to determine whether Plasmodium falciparum malaria treatment outcomes and rates of antimalarial resistance markers differ according to HIV serostatus in Mozambique. Methodology We conducted an observational study of non-pregnant adults, with and without HIV coinfection, admitted to the Hospital Central de Maputo for treatment of severe malaria. Plasmodium falciparum DNA was extracted from whole blood and sequenced to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Statistical analyses to compare clinical outcomes and rates of nonsynonymous mutations in genes associated with drug resistance were performed in R version 4.2. Results We recruited 149 study participants aged between 18-62 years, 72 (48.3%) were female, and 59 (39.6%) were infected with HIV. Comparing clinical outcomes, we found a significant difference in anemia (hemoglobin

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Overcoming Rank Collapse in Feedback Alignment

arXiv:2606.11123v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Backpropagation (BP) is widely viewed as biologically implausible, in part because it requires feedback weights to be the transpose of forward weights for error propagation. Interestingly, when training a network with fixed random feedback weights to circumvent this issue, learning aligns the forward weights with the feedback weights, leading the backpropagated error signal to become an approximation of the standard gradient used by BP. This process, called Feedback Alignment (FA), occurs in MLPs and very shallow CNNs but does not scale well to deeper architectures. In this work, we first investigated differences between BP and FA models, trained on CIFAR10, specifically focusing on the effective rank of the signal. We found that the FA error has a considerably lower rank and hence is constrained to a lower-dimensional subspace compared to BP, limiting exploration of the parameter space. Motivated by this observation, we evaluated two mechanisms for increasing the effective dimensionality of FA: Muon, an optimiser that orthogonalises weight updates; and hidden activity normalisation, which promotes activation orthogonality. Across larger architectures and benchmarks, we find that these methods consistently improve over FA baselines, for example, on CIFAR100 with a Resnet-18, accuracy increases by 9 percentage points. Our results identify low-dimensional gradient dynamics as a key obstacle to scaling FA and suggest that inducing higher-dimensional update geometry is a promising route toward scaling alternatives to backpropagation.

18.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Disentangling Confounders from Pathology in Long-COVID Trajectory Prediction for Women: An Interpretable Large-Language-Model Approach

Objective. Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC, "Long COVID") dispropor- tionately affects women, in whom hallmark symptoms–insomnia, fatigue, palpitations, cogni- tive difficulty–overlap with comorbidities and hormonal transitions such as menopause. This diagnostic overlap is a confounding problem: models that forecast future symptom severity risk attributing baseline physiological noise to viral pathology. We ask whether an interpretable, causally disentangled language model can separate true pathological signal from such con- founders while remaining competitive with strong predictors of future PASC severity

19.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Spatial Analysis and Multilevel Determinants of Hypertension in Zambia: Analysis of the 2017 WHO STEPS Survey

Background: Hypertension is the leading modifiable cardiovascular risk factor globally, with the fastest-growing burden in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to estimate national hypertension prevalence, map provincial patterns, assess spatial clustering, and identify individual and community-level determinants among Zambian adults using the 2017 WHO STEPS survey. Methods: This cross-sectional study used data from the 2017 WHO STEPS survey, a nationally representative sample of 4,301 adults aged 18-69 years. Hypertension was defined as systolic BP [&ge;]140 mmHg, diastolic BP [&ge;]90 mmHg, or current antihypertensive use. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed via Moran's I and LISA. Four nested generalised linear mixed models with PSU-level random intercepts identified individual and community-level determinants. Results: Overall weighted hypertension prevalence was 24.0%. Lusaka recorded the highest prevalence (30.2%), followed by Southern (29.9%) and Muchinga (28.3%) provinces; Western Province had the lowest (12.4%). Spatial clustering was statistically significant but modest (Moran's I = 0.0247, p < 0.001). Between-cluster variation reduced from ICC = 5.9% to 1.8% in the full model, indicating geographic differences were largely explained by individual characteristics. Age was the strongest predictor; adults aged 60-69 had nearly sevenfold higher odds than those aged 18-29 (AOR 6.92, 95% CI: 4.95-9.66). Women had lower odds than men (AOR 0.64, 95% CI: 0.52-0.79). Obesity (AOR 2.34), overweight (AOR 1.65), high cholesterol (AOR 1.40), diabetes (AOR 1.35), and single marital status (AOR 1.34) were independently significant. Western Province showed consistently lower odds than Central Province (AOR 0.48). Conclusion: Hypertension affects one in four Zambian adults, driven primarily by age, sex, obesity, dyslipidaemia, and diabetes. Geographically prioritised interventions, including community health worker-led screening programmes in Lusaka and Southern Province, would maximise population-level impact. Population-level salt reduction and alcohol policies represent cost-effective complementary strategies. Longitudinal studies with finer spatial resolution are needed to clarify causal pathways underlying observed geographic clustering and inform SDG Target 3.4 progress.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

When Language Representations Interact: Separability and Cross-Lingual Effects in LLMs

arXiv:2606.14347v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models exhibit strong multilingual capabilities, however, their internal representations are difficult to interpret. Understanding these interactions is important for ensuring reliable behavior in multilingual systems. Recent work has shown that causal-geometric structure can explain how certain concepts are encoded as approximately linear and separable directions, but whether this framework extends to multilingual models, where language identity is correlated and hierarchical, is underexplored. We apply causal-geometric analysis to multilingual LLMs, studying 28 bilingual contrasts across three models, allowing us to analyze when languages behave as approximately independent factors and when structured dependencies persist. We find evidence that language concepts admit stable linear representations that are largely separable under a covariance-adjusted (causal) inner product, with structured deviations reflecting linguistic similarity. Moreover, languages within the same family (such as Germanic or Romance) exhibit a simplex-like geometric structure, suggesting hierarchical organization. These results extend causal-geometric interpretability to multilingual settings and provide insight into how separability and similarity may exist in multilingual LLM representations, motivating interpretability analyses that diagnose when and how structured dependencies between concepts can be anticipated. This has implications for trustworthy deployment, as residual structure between languages may lead to unintended cross-lingual effects when models are monitored or intervened upon.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

TuneAhead: Predicting Fine-tuning Performance Before Full Training Begins

arXiv:2606.17660v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) is compute-intensive and error-prone: model performance depends sensitively on data quality and hyperparameter choices, and naïve runs can even degrade model performance. This raises a practical question:can we predict fine-tuning performance before committing to a full training run? We present TUNEAHEAD, a lightweight framework for pre-hoc prediction of fine-tuning performance. TUNEAHEAD encodes each candidate run as a meta-feature vector that combines static dataset descriptors with dynamic probe features from a short standardized probe. A predictor maps these features to performance estimates, while SHAP-based attributions provide interpretable diagnostics that reveal which specific features drive the prediction. Across 1,300+ fine-tuning runs on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, TUNEAHEAD consistently outperforms strong baselines such as Early-Stop Extrapolation and ProxyLM. On a held-out test set of 370 runs, TUNEAHEAD achieves an RMSE of 1.47 percentage points and places 95.1% of predictions within +3/-3 percentage points of the true score. These accurate continuous predictions support practical go/no-go screening policies that can reduce unnecessary full fine-tuning while retaining most promising runs.

22.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

The Statistical Compass

arXiv:2606.11282v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This monograph develops probability and stochastic-process ideas as a translation language for statistics: from designed observations and data objects to targets, stability statements, inference, and use. The chapters move from motivating examples and randomization through probability measures, kernels, likelihoods, data objects, weak convergence, empirical fields, functional data, M- and Z-estimation, testing, local approximations, event-time processes, and prediction. Historical and biomedical examples are used to keep abstract objects tied to records, mechanisms, and decisions. The aim is to give readers a common grammar for classical probability, modern data structures, and statistical practice.

23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Divide-and-Denoise: A Game-Theoretic Method for Fairly Composing Diffusion Models

The abundance of pre-trained diffusion models provides an opportunity for composition. Combining several models, however, runs the risk of one model dominating or models disagreeing with each other. Here, we propose Divide-and-Denoise, a method for coordinating multiple pre-trained diffusion models during sampling. Much like managing a specialized workforce, our method creates a fair but efficient division of labor across models. Central to our method is the notion of an allocation which defines the responsibility of each model to every region of the noisy sample. At every timestep, we then denoise by (i) updating the allocation by solving a fair division game, where we divide the sample into regions that maximize total utility under fairness constraints, and (ii) aligning the models with this allocation, where we guide each model to denoise within its assigned region. This leads to a new composite denoising process that evolves in tandem with a division process. We evaluate Divide-and-Denoise on conditional image generation. Across several quality metrics, including the GenEval benchmark, our method outperforms baselines and resolves common failures including missing objects and mismatched attributes. Experiments show that Divide-and-Denoise utilizes each model's expertise without neglecting any other model.

24.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

ICD-10 Code Ambiguity Obscures Treatment-Eligible Adults with Spinal Muscular Atrophy: A Single-Center Chart Review and Patient Outreach Study

Background. Three disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) have been approved since 2016, yet many adults remain untreated. Identifying them depends on ICD-10 codes that capture SMA but do not reliably distinguish it from other related conditions. We examined, in one U.S. health system, both patients' engagement with therapy and the accuracy of the codes used to find them. Methods. We conducted a retrospective chart review of adults in an academic health system identified by SMA-associated ICD-10 codes, with manual adjudication of diagnosis and DMT status. Confirmed SMA-positive, DMT-naive patients were invited to a structured telephone interview on treatment awareness and barriers. Results. Of 60 charts, 22 (36.7%; 95% CI 25.6-49.3%) were appropriately coded for SMA or a related disorder; only 16 (26.7%) had molecularly confirmed SMA. The other 38 (63.3%) were miscoded, spanning spinal and bulbar muscular atrophy, asymptomatic carriers, prenatal screening, and conditions unrelated to SMA. Ten of the 16 confirmed patients (62.5%) were DMT-naive; one was interviewed, one declined, and eight could not be reached. The non-response is itself a finding: the patients least visible to administrative data are the hardest to reach. Conclusions. ICD-10 ambiguity is a barrier to treatment access in adult SMA, as is loss to follow-up. We make two recommendations: continuous documentation-coding alignment that uses natural language processing to verify the genetic precondition, and type-specific SMA codes (subcodes for Types 0-4) anchored on molecular SMN1 confirmation. Together these would support cohort identification, outreach, and evidence generation without adding to clinician burden.

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medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Beyond Nodal Status: Interactions Between Molecular Subtype, Tumor Burden, and Survival in 12,225 Patients with Breast Cancer

Background Lymph node status and molecular subtype are among the most established prognostic factors in breast cancer. However, the extent to which their prognostic effects vary across different tumor size categories and clinical subgroups remains incompletely understood. We investigated the interplay between nodal status, molecular subtype, and tumor size in a large real world breast cancer cohort and developed a prognostic nomogram for individualized survival prediction. Methods A total of 12,225 women with invasive breast cancer from the Shiraz Breast Cancer Registry were analyzed. Patients were stratified according to tumor size, lymph node status, and molecular subtype. Overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS) were evaluated using Kaplan Meier analyses and subgroup comparisons. Logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of lymph node involvement, while Cox regression was used to determine independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was subsequently developed and internally validated for prediction of 3-year and 5-year OS. Results Of 12,225 patients, 41.7% had lymph node positive disease. Across nearly all tumor size categories and molecular subtypes, nodal involvement was associated with significantly worse OS and DFS. Notably, the survival disadvantage associated with nodal positivity was more pronounced among patients with larger tumors and among those with HER2 positive and triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). Although TNBC demonstrated the lowest rate of lymph node involvement among molecular subtypes (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.46-0.63), it appeared to show one of the largest survival gaps between node positive and node negative disease. In the overall cohort, survival outcomes generally ranked from best to worst as Luminal A, Luminal B, HER2 positive, and TNBC. However, survival differences among molecular subtypes were not consistently observed across all tumor size and nodal status subgroups. When significant differences were present, Luminal A and Luminal B tumors consistently showed superior outcomes compared with HER2 positive and TNBC tumors. Multivariable analysis identified lymph node status, tumor size, molecular subtype, lymphovascular invasion, tumor necrosis, type of surgery, radiotherapy, hormone therapy, and adjuvant chemotherapy as independent prognostic factors. A nomogram integrating clinicopathological and treatment variables demonstrated good predictive performance, with time dependent AUCs of 0.749 and 0.751 for 3 year and 5 year OS, respectively, and showed good calibration. Conclusions The prognostic impact of lymph node status is not uniform across breast cancer subgroups and appears particularly pronounced in larger tumors and biologically aggressive subtypes. Despite a lower likelihood of nodal involvement, TNBC showed substantial outcome deterioration when nodal metastasis was present. These findings highlight the importance of jointly considering nodal status, molecular subtype, and tumor burden in prognostic assessment.