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01.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

First-order and interior-point methods for entanglement detection

arXiv:2508.05854v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Quantum entanglement lies at the heart of quantum information science, yet its reliable detection in high-dimensional or noisy systems remains a fundamental computational challenge. Semidefinite programming (SDP) hierarchies, such as the Doherty-Parrilo-Spedalieri (DPS) and Extension (EXT) hierarchies, offer complete methods for entanglement detection, but it is well known that their practical use is limited by exponential growth in problem size if implemented naively. We make three contributions. First, we introduce a new SDP hierarchy, PST, that is sandwiched between EXT and DP – offering a tighter approximation to the set of separable states than EXT, while incurring significantly lower computational overhead than DPS. Second, we explicitly construct compact, polynomially-scalable descriptions of EXT and PST using partition mappings and operators. These descriptions in turn yield formulations that satisfy desirable properties such as the Slater condition and are well-suited to both first-order methods (FOMs) and interior-point methods (IPMs). Third, we design a suite of entanglement detection algorithms: three FOMs (Frank-Wolfe, projected gradient, and fast projected gradient) based on a least-squares formulation, and a custom primal-dual IPM based on a conic programming formulation. These methods are numerically stable and capable of producing entanglement witnesses or proximity measures, even in cases where states lie near the boundary of separability. Numerical experiments on benchmark quantum states demonstrate that our algorithms improve the ability to solve deeper levels of the SDP hierarchy.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

CLAP: Contrastive Latent Action Pretraining for Learning Vision-Language-Action Models from Human Videos

Generalist Vision-Language-Action models remain constrained by the scarcity of robotic data relative to the abundance of human video demonstrations. Existing Latent Action Models attempt to use video data but often suffer from visual entanglement, encoding noise rather than manipulation skills. To address this limitation, we propose Contrastive Latent Action Pretraining (CLAP), a framework that first uses Act-VAE to learn an executable action-token vocabulary from robot trajectories and then aligns human visual transitions with this vocabulary through contrastive learning. This alignment maps unlabeled human videos into a physically grounded latent action space rather than reconstructing appearance. Building on the aligned tokens, we train CLAP-NTP as an autoregressive VLA using robot demonstrations and pseudo-labeled human videos, preserving instruction following and object generalization. For deployment and target-domain adaptation, we further introduce a post-training strategy that combines CLAP-RF, a Rectified Flow action head for low-latency continuous action chunk prediction, with Knowledge Matching regularization to preserve pretrained semantic knowledge during fine-tuning. Extensive experiments show that CLAP achieves strong performance against competitive baselines while enabling effective skill transfer from human videos to robotic execution.

04.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Identifying the risk profile of anemia subtypes and hemodynamic obstetric complications in relation to peripartum cardiomyopathy

Background: Peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM) is a leading cause of maternal mortality worldwide, with worse outcomes associated with African Ancestry and delayed presentation. However, the mechanisms underlying PPCM are incompletely understood. Objective: Use a large, nationwide cohort to explore associations between PPCM and underexplored perinatal risk factors and complications of childbirth. Methods: Public hospital discharge data were obtained from eleven U.S. states between 2003-2019. Delivery hospitalizations, patient characteristics and obstetric complications were identified using ICD-9 and -10 CM codes. Only cases with unique patient identifiers enabling readmission analysis were included. The primary outcome was incident PPCM coded between 30 days antepartum and 150 days postpartum. Results: Of 7,424,916 delivering patients, 5,488 patients were diagnosed with PPCM. Patients with PPCM had higher rates of anemia, anemia of chronic disease (ACD), iron deficiency anemia (IDA), sickle cell disease (SCD), sickle cell trait (SCT), red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, and postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) (p

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

From Memorization to Creation: Evaluating the Cognitive Depth of LLM-Generated Educational Questions

arXiv:2606.18257v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While LLMs show promise in automating educational content creation, their ability to generate questions that stimulate higher-order thinking remains understudied. This work evaluates six widely-used LLMs through a Bloom's Taxonomy lens, focusing on their capacity to transcend rote memorization and achieve cognitive leaps. Using a hybrid human–AI evaluation protocol, we generate and analyze 20{,}700 questions across computer science, K–12 math, and social-science domains. Key contributions include: (1) a fine-grained prompting strategy that reduces question repetitiveness by 24.45\% for Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, and increases the proportion of higher-order cognitive level outputs by 11.53\% for InternLM3-8B-Instruct; (2) quantitative metrics for cognitive shift intensity (CogShift) and category drift, revealing InternLM3's superior performance in multi-level transitions; (3) an interpretability analysis revealing metric-level correlations that enhance the transparency of Chain-of-Thought prompting. Our findings highlight the importance of cognitive-aware prompt design and provide benchmarks for deploying LLMs in personalized learning systems.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Unsupervised Causal Abstractions Discovery

arXiv:2606.19594v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal abstractions formalize when a high-level structural causal model (SCM) captures the interventional behavior of a lower-level SCM. Existing applications of this notion largely follow a hypothesis-testing paradigm: an expert proposes a candidate high-level model and then evaluates if the low-level system implements it. We study the complementary problem of learning a high-level model directly from low-level measurements. Our contributions leverage hypotheses from low-rank causal discovery, and can be summarized as follows: (1) we show that observations generated by a low-rank graph induce latents that form a causal abstraction, (2) we provide identifiability results about these latents, and (3) we propose a practical objective to learn this high-level SCM.

07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Prior over Evidence: Stereotype-Driven Diagnosis in LLM-Based L2 Pronunciation Feedback

Large language models are increasingly deployed for written pronunciation feedback in second-language (L2) English learning, under the assumption that their diagnoses are grounded in the supplied speech evidence rather than in priors from pretraining. This assumption is tested on 1,800 L2-Arctic utterances spanning six L1 backgrounds, three audio-capable LLMs, four pronunciation dimensions, and five evidence conditions ranging from a text-only baseline to numeric acoustic features and raw audio. Each (utterance x model x condition x dimension) cell is scored on three metrics: Rating Accuracy (RA) against gold labels, Evidence Coherence (EC) assessing internal consistency without ground truth, and Grounded Correctness (GC) evaluated against gold evidence. Results show three findings across models. First, rating accuracy and grounded reasoning decouple: 39.6% of judged cells contain internally coherent reasoning that supports a wrong rating, against only 15.8% where the reasoning supports a correct rating. Second, phoneme-level feedback converges to a fixed inventory of L2-English difficulty phones that recurs across all six L1 backgrounds and all evidence conditions. Third, acoustic evidence improves the rating only when the supplied feature directly probes the target dimension: textualised F0 range raises pitch-variation grounding from (0.18-0.19) to (0.45-0.62) across all three models, while stress and phoneme correctness, which require target-to-realisation alignment, remain ungrounded. The same audio waveform without textualised F0 values does not reproduce this improvement. These findings indicate that current general-purpose LLMs are more reliable as verbalisers of externally computed pronunciation evidence than as standalone diagnostic engines.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

NARRAS: Edge-Triggered Distributed Inference for CSI-Based Localization in Vehicular IoT Networks

arXiv:2606.11914v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: CSI-based localization with spatially distributed antenna arrays exposes a basic resource trade-off. Each array can provide a rich view of the channel, but forwarding observations from all arrays to a fusion center is wasteful when only a few carry useful information, and the shared uplink supports only a limited number of simultaneous transmissions. We let each array decide locally whether its current observation is worth reporting, subject to a budget on the average number of active transmitters. We refer to this abstraction as Edge-Triggered Distributed Inference (ETDI). It captures a broader class of task-oriented communication problems where resource-constrained devices share an access channel for a common inference task. We instantiate ETDI for CSI-based localization, a common scenario in vehicular IoT networks. Spatially distributed remote antenna arrays (RAAs) encode local channel state information (CSI) from user equipment (UE) transmissions into latent features, and the fusion center estimates the UE position from the subset of reported features. We propose NARRAS, a decentralized reporting policy in which each RAA combines a recurrent summary of its recent observations with a memory of the last latent it transmitted. Training controls an explicit activity budget through differentiable activity penalties and validation-calibrated deterministic thresholds, and uses channel-chart regularization to shape the latent geometry. Experiments show that, at comparable uplink activity, NARRAS improves localization accuracy over learned and heuristic sparse-reporting strategies, while dense full-report models remain useful budget-free references. In low-activity regimes, chart regularization further reduces high-percentile localization errors, suggesting that geometry-aware latent representations are more robust under sparse reporting.

09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Layer-wise Probing of wav2vec 2.0 and Whisper for Consonant Cluster Reduction in African American English

Self-supervised and supervised speech models are increasingly used to investigate which linguistic information their internal representations encode, and at what level of abstraction they encode it. One underexplored phenomenon is consonant cluster reduction (CCR) in African American English (AAE), a widespread phonological process and a source of automatic speech recognition (ASR) disparity. To examine how CCR is represented, we conduct speaker-independent layer-wise probing of wav2vec2-base and Whisper-small using two tasks: segmental reduction detection and segmental restoration of underlying cluster identity. Both models distinguish reduced and canonical forms with high accuracy. Crucially, reduced segments retain cues to their underlying stops, indicating that CCR is encoded as structured gradient phonological variation rather than simple segmental deletion. These results demonstrate structured phonological encoding of AAE CCR patterns in modern speech models.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

FitVTON: Fit-aware Virtual Try-On via Body-Garment Size Control

While diffusion-based virtual try-on has achieved impressive visual realism, most methods treat the task as 2D inpainting, prioritizing texture preservation over physical plausibility. Consequently, they often produce plausible-looking images that fail to reflect authentic garment fit across diverse body shapes. We present FitVTON, a Fit-aware virtual try-on model on different bodies in the wild. FitVTON encodes garment-body size through structured text prompts, and learn from simulated try-on triplets from parameterized garment model. To improve the fitting effects over garment silhouettes, we introduce two auxiliary head to predict the masks for both the garment and the exposed body. We further introduce a texture rectification stage to improve realistic appearance from simulated data. To evaluate the fitting fidelity, we curate a real-world dataset, FittingEffect3K, combining VLM-based scoring protocol. Both subjective and quantitive experiments show that FitVTON demonstrate authentic fitting fidelity, with significant sizing accuracy and shape preservation over state-of-the-art methods while maintaining competitive image quality. Project Page: https://zenoning.github.io/FitVTON/.

11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

LLM-Powered Virtual Population for Demand Simulation and Pricing

We develop an LLM-powered virtual population model that simulates demand for pricing decisions, in settings where products are described by rich unstructured information, such as text descriptions and images, and where decision makers need not only mean-demand predictions but also uncertainty estimates for counterfactual prices. Our model represents exposed customers as draws from a finite mixture of customer personas. For each persona, product, and candidate price, an LLM elicits a persona-level purchase probability using both structured persona information and unstructured product information. These probabilities are aggregated through calibrated mixture weights to form a predictive distribution of aggregate demand. The resulting simulator can evaluate counterfactual prices under various pricing objectives, including expected revenue and risk-aware criteria such as conditional value at risk. We test the framework on an online H&M fashion dataset with product descriptions and images. The calibrated LLM-based simulator achieves the best overall predictive performance among the models considered, and supports sample-efficient pricing decisions. Our framework provides a practical way to use LLMs as demand simulators for products with limited historical demand data but rich product information. By producing a full predictive demand distribution rather than only a point forecast, it enables managers to compare candidate prices, quantify demand uncertainty, and choose prices that target either average-case revenue or risk-aware objectives.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Half a Link can Be Enough to Predict a Whole Link: Understanding Generalization in Knowledge Graph Foundation Models

arXiv:2606.18001v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Knowledge graph (KG) foundation models (KGFMs) are zero-shot generalizers: trained once, they can predict links on unseen graphs without retraining. However, understanding when and how they can robustly generalize across KGs is still an open question. In this paper, we shed some light on their generalization mechanisms highlighting how their performance on unseen KGs is not uniform when it comes to partially seen links, which we call half-links. In fact, we show that to predict a test triple $(h,r,t)$ it might suffice in practice to have observed the half-link $(h,r)$ or $(r,t)$ in the inference graph. This yields a taxonomy of four scenarios when combinations of these half-links are observed or not. In a rigorous stratified analysis over these scenarios, we reveal that SoTA KGFMs use seen half links for predictions, while unseen half-links pose different challenges. As such, our finer-grained taxonomy can be a diagnostic protocol for robust KGFM generalization and highlights where novel KGFMs can improve.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

MaineCoon: Pursuing A Real-Time Audio-Visual Social World Model

As an increasing majority of global video content is consumed on social platforms for interactive social purposes, video generation models built for social worlds are important but largely overlooked by previous studies. In this work, we define the position of social world models and build a prototype model as the first step towards this goal. While previous world models successfully simulate physical environments or gaming world exploration, they remain fundamentally detached from human-centric social dynamics. To bridge this gap as the first step to social world models, we present MaineCoon, the first real-time audio-visual autoregressive model that has 22B parameters and is capable of real-time streaming generation and sub-second interaction, with a record-breaking frame rate of up to 47.5 FPS, on a single GPU. To the best of our knowledge, MaineCoon is also the first real-time audio-visual generation model specifically optimized for social-interactive applications. To enable efficient and stable training, we introduce several novel techniques into MaineCoon, including self-resampling, cross-modal representation alignment, domain-aware preference optimization, and reinforced online-policy distillation (ROPD). We also design the first agentic streaming inference framework that supports thousand-second-scale or even longer generation while mitigating drift with agentic cache management and prompt planing. These innovations significantly accelerate training while optimizing real-time inference performance. We believe this work not only sets a new state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance benchmark for high-quality, low-latency, and long-horizon audio-visual autoregressive models, but also points out the paradigm shift desired for next-generation AI-native social platforms.

14.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Partitioned Iterative Quantum Scheduling of Satellites for Urgent Disaster Response: Case study of Wildfire

arXiv:2606.12310v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The standard in Earth-observation tasks today is having near real-time access to surface images in response to changing conditions. For instance, as urban environments interface more with wildlands and wildfires become less predictable, their tracking with satellite resources becomes essential. This requires the coordination of increasingly large constellations of satellites, giving rise to challenging computational problems. With wildfire detection and tracking as a backdrop, we investigate the power of special purpose and novel computing paradigms to tackle the ensuing satellite scheduling problems, making a compelling case for quantum algorithms. We bring quantum scheduling algorithms closer to implementation by examining both the emerging iterative quantum algorithm framework, which comes with analytic guarantees compared to some classical algorithms, and distributed quantum computing methods whose relevance is on the rise as utility-scale problems begin to get solved with quantum computers. Drawing strength from several computing fronts, we develop a distributed/parallelization scheme in conjunction with the quantum algorithm design and apply these techniques to real-world datasets for wildfire detection. While our quantum subprocesses are currently too small to see significant quantum advantage, our results validate the utility of these techniques, and continue forging the path toward distributed quantum computing.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Knowledge Cascade: Reverse Knowledge Distillation on Nonparametric Multivariate Functional Estimation

arXiv:2606.25927v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As machine learning models and datasets continue to grow, developing complex models has become increasingly computationally demanding. Knowledge distillation reduces deployment cost by compressing a large, well-trained teacher model into a compact student model, but it does not address settings where constructing the teacher itself is the bottleneck. Motivated by this challenge, we introduce Knowledge Cascade (KCas), a reverse knowledge distillation framework that uses information from a small, inexpensive student model to guide the development of a more complex teacher model. Although this direction is counterintuitive because the teacher typically has greater representational capacity, we show that student-to-teacher transfer can be principled when supported by statistical scaling relationships. We first develop KCas for nonparametric multivariate functional estimation in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces via smoothing splines, where selecting multiple smoothing parameters is a major computational bottleneck. KCas transfers student-selected smoothing parameters to the full-sample regime through asymptotic scaling laws, substantially reducing computational cost for high-dimensional and large-scale datasets while retaining theoretical guarantees. Beyond smoothing splines, we illustrate the same principle through kernel density estimation and deep learning hyperparameter transfer. Simulations and real-data experiments show that KCas achieves substantial computational savings while maintaining strong statistical performance, and can sometimes outperform the corresponding full-sample procedure.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

MASK: Multi-Agent Semantic K-Scheduling for Risk-Sensitive 6G Robotics

arXiv:2606.11249v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Realizing the vision of 6G connected robotics requires reconciling high-performance collaborative control with the rigid spectral limitations of physical wireless channels. In realistic collaborative sensing scenarios, spectral resources are quantized into finite physical resource blocks or orthogonal subcarriers, rendering simultaneous transmission by all agents infeasible. To address this, we propose Multi-Agent Semantic K-Scheduling (MASK), a control architecture designed to sustain robust, risk-aware coordination under strict instantaneous bandwidth caps. We introduce Arbiter-Assisted Semantic Information Gating (A-SIG), a lightweight coordination mechanism that enforces hard access constraints by scheduling only the top-K agents based on locally computed semantic importance scores. By aggregating these prioritized observations into a compact latent state, a self-supervised global encoder enables a distributional policy to mitigate tail risks despite data sparsity. We evaluate MASK across diverse benchmarks, demonstrating that it matches the performance of communication-unconstrained baselines even when channel access is restricted to a small fraction of the swarm size. Furthermore, the framework exhibits inherent resilience to packet erasures, validating semantic scheduling as a critical enabler for resource-constrained 6G systems.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

A Robust Model-Based Approach for Continuous-Time Policy Evaluation with Unknown Lévy Process Dynamics

arXiv:2504.01482v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper develops a model-based framework for continuous-time policy evaluation (CTPE) in reinforcement learning, incorporating both Brownian and Lévy noise to model stochastic dynamics influenced by rare and extreme events. Our approach formulates the policy evaluation problem as solving a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) for the value function with unknown coefficients. A key challenge in this setting is accurately recovering the unknown coefficients in the stochastic dynamics, particularly when driven by Lévy processes with heavy tail effects. To address this, we propose a robust numerical approach that effectively handles both unbiased and censored trajectory datasets. This method combines maximum likelihood estimation with an iterative tail correction mechanism, improving the stability and accuracy of coefficient recovery. Additionally, we establish a theoretical bound for the policy evaluation error based on coefficient recovery error. Through numerical experiments, including a real-data BTC price experiment, we demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our method in recovering heavy-tailed Lévy dynamics and verify the theoretical error analysis in policy evaluation.

18.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-25

On the entropic convergence for piecewise deterministic samplers: speedup and obstruction

arXiv:2606.26086v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: For piecewise deterministic samplers such as Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RHMC), Bouncy Particle Sampler (BPS) or Zig-Zag Process (ZZP), long-time exponential convergence rates have been established in previous works using Harris or $L^2$ hypocoercivity approaches. In particular, in the $L^2$ framework, a so-called diffusive-to-ballistic speedup was known for log-concave targets, according to which the convergence rates of these samplers, with suitable parameters, are quadratically improved with respect to the standard overdamped Langevin diffusion process. A recent work by Jianfeng Lu showed that this speedup also holds for the kinetic Langevin diffusion process when the convergence is stated in terms of relative entropy, raising the question whether this also holds for piecewise deterministic samplers. The present work provides a positive and a negative answer to this: first, we show that the speedup holds in entropy for RHMC; second, we show that for BPS or ZZS, even for a standard Gaussian target, a similar result cannot hold, and even that exponential convergence (at any rate) in entropy fails.

19.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Afrispeech Semantics: Evaluating Audio Semantic Reasoning in Spoken Language Models Across Domains and Accents

Audio language models (ALMs) are increasingly used for speech-based understanding, yet their ability to perform semantic reasoning beyond transcription, Text-to-Audio Retrieval, Captioning, and Question-Answering accuracy remains insufficiently benchmarked. In particular, the effects of accent variation, domain shift, and semantic over-inference on audio reasoning are poorly understood. We evaluate audio language models across five semantic and paralinguistic reasoning tasks: entailment, consistency, plausibility, accent drift, and accent restraint. Collectively, these tasks assess a model's ability to reason over spoken audio as the primary evidence source, including whether a textual hypothesis can be inferred, contradicted, or left undetermined by the audio, whether statements align or conflict with spoken content, whether claims are plausible given the discourse, and whether model predictions remain stable or appropriately constrained across accent variation. These findings highlight critical limitations in current audio reasoning evaluations and hope to provide guidance for more robust and equitable ALM design and assessment

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

SILAGE: Memory-Efficient, Full-Gradient-Free Nonconvex Optimization for Nested Finite Sums

arXiv:2606.15832v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Empirical risk minimization on massive datasets naturally exhibits a nested double finite-sum structure, where $N=nm$ total samples are logically or physically partitioned into $n$ blocks of size $m$ (e.g., in pooled data silos, out-of-core learning, or deliberate stratification). While variance-reduced methods achieve optimal oracle complexities for nonconvex objectives, they suffer from severe scaling bottlenecks in this centralized regime. Recursive estimators, such as PAGE, require periodic global full-gradient refreshes over all $nm$ samples, which are computationally expensive. Conversely, single-loop methods, such as SILVER, avoid such refreshes but require an impractical $\mathcal{O}(nm)$ memory footprint to store a control variate for every sample. In this paper, we propose SILAGE, a variance-reduced algorithm that addresses this trade-off. By actively exploiting the double-sum structure, SILAGE eliminates periodic global full-gradient refreshes over all $nm$ components (evaluating at most one local group gradient per iteration) while requiring only $\mathcal{O}(n)$ memory. Furthermore, we provide a tight convergence analysis that avoids pessimistic worst-case Lipschitz constants. Instead, SILAGE's complexity natively adapts to the underlying data geometry via nested functional similarities: across-group ($\delta_1$) and within-group ($\delta_2$) heterogeneity. Our results improve existing state-of-the-art bounds in several practically relevant regimes.

21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

MapDream: Task-Driven Map Learning for Vision-Language Navigation

Vision-Language Navigation (VLN) requires agents to follow natural language instructions in partially observed 3D environments, motivating map representations that aggregate spatial context beyond local perception. However, most existing approaches rely on hand-crafted maps constructed independently of the navigation policy. We argue that maps should instead be learned representations shaped directly by navigation objectives rather than exhaustive reconstructions. Based on this insight, we propose MapDream, a map-in-the-loop framework that formulates map construction as autoregressive bird's-eye-view (BEV) image synthesis. The framework jointly learns map generation and action prediction, distilling environmental context into a compact three-channel BEV map that preserves only navigation-critical affordances. Supervised pre-training bootstraps a reliable mapping-to-control interface, while the autoregressive design enables end-to-end joint optimization through reinforcement fine-tuning. Experiments on R2R-CE and RxR-CE achieve state-of-the-art monocular performance, validating task-driven generative map learning.

22.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-18

A comparison of contact patterns derived from the population structure in agent-based models and empirical contact survey data

Authors:

by Janik Suer, Johannes Ponge, Michael Brüggemann, Jan Pablo Burgard, Vitaly Belik, Bernd Hellingrath, Alejandra Rincón Hidalgo, Andrzej K. Jarynowski, Richard Pastor, Huynh Thi Phuong, Steven Schulz, Ashish Thampi, Chao Xu, Marlli Zambrano, Rafael Mikolajczyk, André Karch, Veronika K. Jaeger, on behalf of the OptimAgent Consortium Agent-based models (ABMs) are powerful tools for simulating disease spread, relying on individual-level interaction rules from which emergent dynamics arise. An important component in ABMs is contact behaviour. To reduce computational complexity, contact behaviour in ABMs is often assumed as random mixing within structurally defined settings (as, e.g., workplaces). with setting composition typically based on empirical data such as census information. However, the validity of this approach to represent contacts remains unclear. To address this gap, we compare the contact structure derived through this approach in a large-scale ABM with empirical contact survey data with respect to age contact matrices for households, schools, workplaces, all remaining contact settings, and all contacts combined (based on difference matrices and sum of squared errors (SSE)). Our results demonstrate that random mixing in settings with known age compositions like households (SSE:0.7(95%CI0.4–0.9)), schools (SSE:0.7(95%CI:0.3–1.1)) and workplaces (SSE:0.5(95%CI:0.2-0.7)), captures basic interaction patterns but fails to account for age-related variation in contact numbers. The largest differences arise for contacts outside these settings (SSE:3.8(95%CI:1.2–6.5)), as ABMs typically use random regional contacts that do not capture age-structured behaviour observed in contact surveys. Applying contact matrices from both approaches to an age-structured compartmental model, leads to noticeable differences in simulated epidemic outcomes regarding reproduction numbers and spreading dynamics between age groups. Our results suggest that naïve approaches to represent contact behaviour in ABMs based on population structure can be valid in settings with defined age-structures while settings with low a priori structure require more advanced methods to represent contact behaviour observed in contact surveys.

23.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-24

Role of methanesulfonic acid in atmospheric particle nucleation and growth

Authors:

Dimethylsulfide (DMS; CH3SCH3) from marine phytoplankton is a major source of atmospheric sulfur 1. Its oxidation products include sulfuric acid (SA; H2SO4) and methanesulfonic acid (MSA; CH3SO3H), which has a higher yield than SA below 10 °C 2. Whereas SA is known to drive the formation of new particles 3, which may subsequently grow and act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), the role of MSA remains unclear 4. Here, in experiments performed under atmospheric conditions at the CERN CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) chamber, we show that MSA nucleates together with ammonia (NH3) below −10 °C, at rates comparable to SA-NH3. Moreover, MSA and SA nucleate synergistically below −10 °C, forming multi-acid molecular clusters with NH3. Even at ultra-low NH3 levels, MSA drives particle growth at or near the kinetic limit below 9 °C and above 40 % relative humidity (RH). Since MSA and SA generally coexist at similar concentrations in cool marine regions, our findings indicate that nucleation rates may be accelerated up to tenfold and growth rates up to twofold compared with SA-NH3 alone. Our global model simulations indicate that MSA can enhance CCN concentrations, especially in polar regions. We propose that MSA might be an important driver of biogenic particles in cool, pristine marine regions of both the present-day and pre-industrial atmospheres, and yet is unaccounted for in global climate models 5.

24.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

ADVISE: A Machine Learning Framework for Early Recognition of a Surrogate Marker for Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia Using Routinely Collected Critical Care Data

Background Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is the most frequent nosocomial infection in critical care, affecting 20-36% of mechanically ventilated patients. Early prediction is hampered by the absence of a reliable, objective diagnostic standard. We developed ADVISE (Automated Dudley Ventilation Infection Series Evaluation), a machine learning model to predict physiological deterioration consistent with developing VAP using routinely collected electronic health record data from a UK NHS intensive care unit. Methods Retrospective observational study of admissions at Russell's Hall Hospital ICU (2008-2026). Following National Data Opt-Out exclusion (158 admissions, 4.2%), 3,566 admissions generated 33,208 candidate 48-hour observation blocks. Six temporal variables - FiO2, ventilator mode, P:F ratio, procalcitonin (PCT), secretion amount, and secretion description - were extracted across the baseline window (hours 1-24). A composite VAP-surrogate outcome required concurrent P:F ratio decline (>=5%) and PCT rise (>=0.5 ng/mL) across the outcome window (hours 25-48). After sequential quality filters, 2,134 blocks (18 positive, 0.84% prevalence) were retained. An XGBoost classifier was trained using nested 5-fold cross-validation with scale_pos_weight=114.0 and ROC-based hyperparameter optimisation on 1,495 training blocks, evaluated on 639 held-out test blocks. Performance was assessed via AUROC, AUPRC, and calibration (Brier score). Bootstrap resampling (1,000 iterations) generated 95% confidence intervals. Results On the held-out test set (n=639, 5 positive outcomes), ADVISE achieved AUROC 0.874 [95% CI: 0.771-0.939] and AUPRC 0.031 [0.008-0.069], representing a 4.0-fold improvement over the no-skill baseline. Nested cross-validation mean AUROC was 0.844 +/- 0.078 (range 0.716-0.915). At the Youden-optimal threshold, sensitivity was 0% with specificity 97.8%, reflecting extreme class imbalance (0.78% test prevalence). A threshold targeting 80% sensitivity achieved sensitivity 80.0% [33.3-100.0%], specificity 87.4% [84.8-89.9%], positive predictive value 4.8% [1.1-9.9%], and negative predictive value 99.8% [99.4-100.0%], detecting 4 of 5 VAP cases with approximately 80 false alarms (12.6% false positive rate). Brier score was 0.0078. Feature importance identified baseline P:F ratio as the dominant predictor (41.3% total gain), followed by ventilator mode (26.1%), secretion amount (13.2%), secretion description (9.1%), procalcitonin (5.9%), and FiO2; (4.5%). Conclusions ADVISE demonstrates that baseline oxygenation trajectory and ventilatory support patterns - derived exclusively from routinely charted ICCA variables - can identify admissions at risk of VAP-related physiological deterioration with meaningful discrimination (AUROC 0.874) despite severe class imbalance. The 80% sensitivity operating point offers a clinically actionable alert rate (12.6% FPR), supporting integration into existing ICU workflows. This proof-of-concept study establishes feasibility; multi-site prospective validation is required before clinical deployment.