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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Audited Conformal Prediction for Classification under Unknown Distribution Shift

arXiv:2606.14909v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification for a pretrained classification model deployed under unknown distribution shift. We propose Audited Conformal Prediction (ACP), a method that leverages a small labeled dataset from the target population to train an auxiliary audit model identifying inputs where the legacy model is likely to fail. By integrating the audit model's outputs into the conformal prediction framework, ACP produces prediction sets that guarantee marginal coverage while achieving substantially higher conditional coverage in practice than existing approaches. We develop and analyze two complementary integration strategies – one targeting marginal coverage with improved conditional performance, the other providing explicit group-conditional coverage guarantees – and establish theoretical guarantees for both. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets validate the method and illustrate trade-offs between prediction set size and conditional coverage.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Scalable Batch Bayesian Optimization Via Subspace Acquisition Functions

arXiv:2411.16206v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Extending Bayesian optimization to batch evaluation can enable the designer to make the most use of parallel computing technology. However, most of current batch approaches do not scale well with the batch size. That is, their optimization efficiencies often deteriorate as the batch size increases. To address this issue, we propose a simple and efficient approach to extend Bayesian optimization to large-scale batch evaluation in this work. Different from existing batch approaches, the idea of the new approach is to draw a batch of axis-aligned subspaces of the original problem and select one point from each subspace using existing acquisition functions. Numerical experiments show that our proposed approach speedups the convergence significantly when compared with the sequential Bayesian optimization algorithm, and performs very competitively when compared with ten batch Bayesian optimization algorithms. The implementation of our proposed approach is available at https://github.com/zhandawei/SubSpace_Acquisition_Functions.

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Bridging Data Gaps in Structural Fragility Modeling through Transfer Learning: Methodology and Case Studies

arXiv:2606.18567v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper presents a methodology-centered transfer learning framework for fragility adaptation under domain shift, class imbalance, and scarce target labels while preserving engineering interpretability and supporting decision-making under uncertainty. Four transfer learning strategies (instance-based, parameter-based, hierarchical Bayesian, and multi-source) are demonstrated through three complementary case studies: (i) instance-based transfer learning via importance weighting, demonstrated on coastal bridge fragility using Hurricane Katrina observations; (ii) parameter-based transfer learning together with hierarchical Bayesian transfer learning, enabling partial pooling across strata and posterior uncertainty quantification, demonstrated on residential building fragility using Hurricane Ian observations; and (iii) multi-source transfer learning that fuses multiple analytical fragility models with learned source weights and regularized target-domain adaptation, demonstrated on seismic bridge fragility using observations from the 2001 Nisqually earthquake. Across these case studies, direct transfer of source models (i.e. using existing state-of-the-art models) fails under domain shift and severe class imbalance, while targeted adaptation substantially improves failure detection and predictive stability in low-data regimes. These findings highlight the need for systematic guidance on diagnostics, strategy selection, and uncertainty reporting when developing and adapting fragility models.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

From AGI to ASI

arXiv:2606.12683v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Over the last decade, building human-level artificial general intelligence has moved from far-fetched speculation to being a concrete next-decade target for many of the largest AI organisations. Achieving this goal would have profound and far-reaching impacts on human society, which raises many complex questions for the decade ahead. This report investigates how AI itself might continue to develop in a post-AGI world along the continuum of machine intelligence. The endpoint of this continuum, Universal AI, is theoretically well understood, which provides some formal grounding for the main focus of this report: the transition from human-level AGI to artificial general superintelligence, which, intuitively, can be understood as a system that is more intelligent and cognitively capable than large organisations of humans. After characterizing ASI, the report discusses four potential pathways from AGI to ASI: scaling AGI, AI paradigm shifts, recursive improvement, and ASI emerging from large-scale multi-agent collectives. The report then discusses possible frictions and bottlenecks along these pathways. Determining whether the impact of these frictions will be negligible or substantial raises a number of concrete open research questions. Due to large uncertainties for predicting ASI progress, it cannot be ruled out that AI progress might continue to accelerate over the next years. This could imply that the image of a single transformative step change, caused by the introduction of human-level AGI into our society, could be inaccurate. More apt might be the prospect of a series of transformative societal changes caused by AI-enabled progress and breakthroughs across many areas of science and technology. Preparing for this prospect requires a massively interdisciplinary endeavour of global scope and interest.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Separating Oblivious and Adaptive Models of Variable Selection

arXiv:2602.16568v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Sparse recovery is among the most well-studied problems in learning theory and high-dimensional statistics. In this work, we investigate the statistical and computational landscapes of sparse recovery with $\ell_\infty$ error guarantees. This variant of the problem is motivated by variable selection tasks, where the goal is to estimate the support of a $k$-sparse signal in $\mathbb{R}^d$. Our main contribution is a provable separation between the oblivious (``for each'') and adaptive (``for all'') models of $\ell_\infty$ sparse recovery. We show that under an oblivious model, the optimal $\ell_\infty$ error is attainable in near-linear time with $\approx k\log d$ samples, whereas in an adaptive model, $\gtrsim k^2$ samples are necessary for any algorithm to achieve this bound. This establishes a surprising contrast with the standard $\ell_2$ setting, where $\approx k \log d$ samples suffice even for adaptive sparse recovery. We conclude with a preliminary examination of a partially-adaptive model, where we show nontrivial variable selection guarantees are possible with $\approx k\log d$ measurements.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Building Social World Models with Large Language Models

Understanding and predicting how social beliefs evolve in response to events – from policy changes to scientific breakthroughs – remains a fundamental challenge in social science. Given LLMs' commonsense knowledge and social intelligence, we ask: Can LLMs model the dynamics of social beliefs following social events? In this work, we introduce the concept of the Social World Model (SWM), a general framework designed to capture how social beliefs evolve in response to major events. SWM learns state-transition functions for social beliefs by mining temporal patterns in social data and optimizing the evidence lower bound, without the need for explicit human annotations linking events to belief shifts, or for expensive census data. To evaluate SWM, we introduce a benchmark, SWM-bench, derived from real-world prediction markets, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket. SWM-bench includes over 12k data points for social belief prediction tasks spanning diverse domains such as politics, finance, and cryptocurrency. Our experimental results show that SWM significantly outperforms time-series foundation models, achieving state-of-the-art results on Kalshi data and demonstrating competitive performance on Polymarket data, while offering interpretable insights into the underlying mechanisms of social belief dynamics.

07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

A Mechanistic Understanding of Pronoun Fidelity in LLMs

Faithful and robust pronoun use is important for fair and coherent generations, yet large language models largely fail when multiple referents use different pronouns. To study the interplay of reasoning, repetition, and bias in this task, prior work relies exclusively on behavioural approaches, which may not reflect a model's internal workings. Therefore, we provide a mechanistic, model-internal perspective on pronoun fidelity, testing whether three mechanisms – group entity binding (G), recency bias (R), and stereotypical bias (S) – are causally implemented across several SOTA language models. Using Boundless Distributed Alignment Search, we find all three coexist as causal subspaces distributed across network depth. No single mechanism fully explains model behaviour, but a combination of the three consistently accounts for 91-99.5%. An attention head analysis further reveals two competing copying routes; group binding and stereotype share a localized concept-level route that retrieves a bound occupation-pronoun unit, while recency uses a distributed token-level route that repeats surface forms. In sum, pronoun fidelity arises from competition between simultaneously active causal subspaces.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Characterization of Gaussian Universality Breakdown in High-Dimensional Empirical Risk Minimization

arXiv:2604.03146v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study high-dimensional convex empirical risk minimization (ERM) under general non-Gaussian data designs. By heuristically extending the Convex Gaussian Min-Max Theorem (CGMT) to non-Gaussian settings, we derive an asymptotic min-max characterization of key statistics, enabling approximation of the mean $\mu_{\hat{\theta}}$ and covariance $C_{\hat{\theta}}$ of the ERM estimator $\hat{\theta}$. Specifically, under a concentration assumption on the data matrix and standard regularity conditions on the loss and regularizer, we show that for a test covariate $x$ independent of the training data, the projection $\hat{\theta}^\top x$ approximately follows the convolution of the generally non-Gaussian distribution of $\mu_{\hat{\theta}}^\top x$ with an independent centered Gaussian variable of variance $\mathrm{tr}(C_{\hat{\theta}} \mathbb{E}[xx^\top])$. This result clarifies the scope and limits of Gaussian universality for ERMs. Additionally, we prove that any $\mathcal{C}^2$ regularizer is asymptotically equivalent to a quadratic form determined solely by its Hessian at zero and gradient at $\mu_{\hat{\theta}}$. Numerical simulations across diverse losses and models are provided to validate our theoretical predictions and qualitative insights.

09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Structuring The Future: Diffusion LLM Speculative Decoding via Calibrated Draft Graphs

Diffusion LLMs (dLLMs) have recently emerged as a powerful alternative to autoregressive LLMs (AR-LLMs) with the potential to operate at significantly higher token-generation rates. To unlock this potential, we present Spiffy, a speculative decoding algorithm to accelerate dLLM inference while provably preserving the model's output distribution. This work addresses the unique challenges involved in applying ideas from speculative decoding of AR-LLMs to dLLMs. Spiffy performs auto-speculation to eliminate the overheads of an independent draft model, structuring draft states in the form of a novel directed draft graph to take advantage of the bidirectional, blockwise nature of dLLM generation. These draft graphs are calibrated offline to maximize acceptance rates and are dynamically pruned during inference for improved computational efficiency. We present a detailed formulation of Spiffy and demonstrate its ability to accelerate LLaDA, Dream, and SDAR models in combination with KV caching and threshold-based dynamic unmasking leading to up to $8.6\times$ reduction in model inferences and $6.3\times$ acceleration in token rate.

10.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Quantum thermodynamics, quantum correlations and quantum coherence in accelerating Unruh-DeWitt detectors in both steady and dynamical state

arXiv:2512.18123v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We investigate the interplay between quantum thermodynamics, quantum correlations, and quantum coherence within the framework of the Unruh-DeWitt (UdW) detector model. By analyzing both the steady and dynamical states of various quantum resources (including steerability, entanglement, quantum discord, and coherence), we study how these resources evolve under Markovian and non-Markovian environments. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of both the Unruh temperature and the energy levels on three key quantum phenomena: thermodynamic evolution, quantum correlations, and quantum coherence, considering different initial state preparations. The hierarchical structure relating quantum correlations and quantum coherence is determined. We further examine the thermodynamic performance of a quantum heat engine, highlighting the influence of memory effects and classical correlations on heat exchange, work extraction, and efficiency. Our results reveal that non-Markovian dynamics can enhance the preservation of quantum correlations and improve the engine's efficiency compared to purely Markovian regime. These findings provide insights into the role of quantum correlations and quantum coherence in quantum thermodynamic processes and open avenues for optimizing quantum devices operating in relativistic or open-system settings.

11.
Nature Medicine 2026-06-08

Post-adjuvant chemotherapy in ctDNA-positive patients with resected colorectal cancer: a randomized phase 3 trial

Authors:

Tumor-informed circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) enables detection of molecular residual disease (MRD) after curative resection of colorectal cancer (CRC), but whether early intervention improves outcomes remains uncertain. ALTAIR was a randomized, double-blind, phase 3 trial embedded in the CIRCULATE-Japan platform evaluating a post-adjuvant ctDNA surveillance strategy with treatment initiation upon molecular recurrence. Patients with resected stage 0–IV CRC who became ctDNA positive after completion of standard-of-care therapy and had no radiological evidence of disease were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive trifluridine/tipiracil (FTD/TPI) or placebo for 6 months. The primary endpoint was investigator-assessed disease-free survival (DFS). Between July 2020 and June 2023, 243 patients were randomized to FTD/TPI (n = 122) or placebo (n = 121). Median DFS was 9.30 months with FTD/TPI and 5.55 months with placebo (hazard ratio = 0.79, 95% confidence interval: 0.60–1.05, P = 0.107), and the primary endpoint was not met. FTD/TPI increased grade 3 or higher hematologic adverse events (73.0% versus 3.3%) without new safety signals. These findings indicate that post-adjuvant intervention with FTD/TPI did not significantly improve DFS in ctDNA-positive patients without radiological disease. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04457297 . In the randomized, double-blind phase 3 ALTAIR trial, patients with resected colorectal cancer who became positive for circulating tumor DNA during post-adjuvant surveillance received trifluridine/tipiracil hydrochloride therapy, which did not significantly prolong disease-free survival compared with placebo.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

A Comparative Study of Bayesian Contextual Bandits for Real-Time Warehouse Sorter Optimization

arXiv:2606.23977v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Efficient sorter diversion control of automated material handling systems (MHS) is critical for optimizing operational efficiency in large-scale warehouse environments. In this study, we use an inbound receiving sorter at a high-volume e-commerce warehouse as our primary use case, where the sorter diversion system relies on cost functions with static weight configurations that fail to adapt to highly dynamic system contexts, such as volume mode, congestion level, equipment physical status, and upstream/downstream dependencies. To address this real-time sorter diversion optimization challenge, we conducted a comparative study of three candidate hybrid machine learning frameworks: Linear Regression with Gradient Descent Optimization (LR+GDO), XGBoost with Bayesian Optimization (XGB+BO), and Bayesian Contextual Bandits (BCB). Model training and evaluation were enabled by leveraging a high-fidelity physics-aware emulator to overcome the cold-start problem and allow a safe transition from offline to online learning. We performed comprehensive evaluations including reward model predictive accuracy, contextual sensitivity, action distribution, and projected reward uplift. Our results demonstrate that while tree-based reward models offer slightly better predictive power, the BCB framework achieved overall higher performance with 2.03% reward uplift over the heuristic baseline. Furthermore, BCB exhibits several superior characteristics, such as its decisive time-optimal policy backed by Bang-Bang control theory, continuous online learning capability, strategic balance between exploration and exploitation, and significantly shorter inference latency. These results demonstrate the potential of the BCB framework for real-time control optimization in large-scale warehouse environments, motivating further investigation toward operational deployment.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Central Limit Theorems for Stochastic Gradient Descent Quantile Estimators

arXiv:2503.02178v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper develops asymptotic theory for quantile estimation via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with a constant learning rate. The quantile loss function is neither smooth nor strongly convex. Beyond conventional perspectives and techniques, we view quantile SGD iteration as an irreducible, periodic, and positive recurrent Markov chain, which cyclically converges to its unique stationary distribution regardless of the arbitrarily fixed initialization. To derive the exact form of the stationary distribution, we analyze the structure of its characteristic function by exploiting the stationary equation. We also derive tight bounds for its moment generating function (MGF) and tail probabilities. Synthesizing the aforementioned approaches, we prove that the centered and standardized stationary distribution converges to a Gaussian distribution as the learning rate $\eta\rightarrow0$. This finding provides the first central limit theorem (CLT)-type theoretical guarantees for the quantile SGD estimator with constant learning rates. We further propose a recursive algorithm to construct confidence intervals of the estimators with statistical guarantees. Numerical studies demonstrate the effective finite-sample performance of the online estimator and inference procedure. The theoretical tools developed in this study are of independent interest for investigating general SGD algorithms formulated as Markov chains, particularly in non-strongly convex and non-smooth settings.

14.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Deep learning four decades of human migration

Authors:

Human migration is a fundamental driver of global demographic change, shaping population structure, labour markets and social policy across countries1–3. Although long-term migration patterns are often linked to economic development4, they can shift rapidly in response to shocks such as conflict, environmental crises and political change5. Despite its importance, migration remains difficult to measure consistently: existing data are sparse, concentrated in high-income settings and are fragmented across incompatible definitions, temporal resolutions and data types6–8. Past efforts have relied on partial datasets, including flow records, stock estimates and model-based reconstructions with limited coverage9–14. A central challenge is therefore to construct a globally consistent, high-resolution account of migration flows over time. Here we present a new dataset of annual origin-destination migration across 230 countries and regions from 1990 to the present, integrating diverse data sources into a unified modelling framework. By combining official statistics, census-based stocks, net migration estimates and past flow reconstructions, our approach produces temporally detailed and spatially comprehensive estimates that substantially extend existing resources. Using an ensemble of deep recurrent neural networks informed by geographic, economic, cultural and political covariates, we capture both persistent trends and short-term responses to changing conditions—all while propagating uncertainty to generate confidence bounds. Our results outperform existing five-year flow estimates on held-out data and provide finer temporal resolution, revealing previously obscured dynamics in global migration patterns. This framework highlights regions in which uncertainty remains high and data collection is most urgently needed. By releasing all data, code and trained models, we provide a transparent and reproducible foundation for future work. These advances enable a more timely and detailed understanding of human mobility, with implications for research and policy in an increasingly dynamic global system. A global annual migration-flow dataset (1990–2024) is produced using deep-learning models and diverse sources to estimate movements across 230 countries with improved temporal resolution, coverage and uncertainty estimates.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

ReFoCUS: Reinforcement-guided Frame Optimization for Contextual Understanding

Recent progress in Large Multi-modal Models (LMMs) has enabled effective vision-language reasoning, yet the ability to video understanding remains constrained by suboptimal frame selection strategies, albeit with the rapid development of video-specialized LMMs. Prior works attempted to solve this with static heuristics or external retrieval modules to feed frame-level information, but these approaches often fail to capture visual cues grounded to the given user queries conflating raw visual dynamics with true semantic relevance. In this paper, we introduce ReFoCUS (Reinforcement-guided Frame Optimization for Contextual UnderStanding), the first framework to integrate online policy-gradient reinforcement learning into frame-level optimization for video-LLMs. ReFoCUS aims to learn a frame selection policy, leveraging reward signals derived from reference models to capture their underlying scoring behavior over frame combinations that best support temporally grounded responses. To efficiently explore the large combinatorial frame space, we employ an autoregressive and query-conditional selection architecture that ensures contextual consistency while reducing complexity. Our policy learning removes the need for explicit frame-level supervision, as it implicitly discovers optimal and semantically consistent frame compositions. ReFoCUS consistently improves reasoning accuracy across multiple video QA benchmarks, demonstrating the advantage of aligning frame selection with model-internal utility.

16.
PLOS Medicine 2026-06-18

Association between initial benzodiazepine prescribing patterns and time to benzodiazepine discontinuation: A population-based retrospective cohort study

by Nikki Bozinoff, Tanya S. Hauck, Robert A. Kleinman, Matthew E. Sloan, Beth A. Sproule, Simone N. Vigod, Jennifer Wyman, Priscila Pequeno, Tara Gomes Background Long-term benzodiazepine use has been associated with increased risk of morbidity and mortality. Preventing long-term use through safer prescribing practices has received little attention to date. We sought to better understand associations between initial prescription characteristics and duration of benzodiazepine use. Methods and findings This was a retrospective population-based cohort study of 1,820,808 adults in Ontario with incident benzodiazepine prescriptions between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2020, with follow-up to December 31, 2021. The primary exposure was duration of the index prescription (≤7 days—referent group, 8–14 days, 15–30 days, or >30 days). Secondary exposures were: (a) duration of action of index benzodiazepine(s) prescription (short-acting, long-acting or both); (b) number of benzodiazepine dispensed on index (1 or 2+); and (c) mean daily dose of the index prescription in Diazepam Milligram Equivalents (DMEs). The primary outcome was time to benzodiazepine discontinuation in days. Multivariable models were adjusted for age, sex, anxiety, insomnia, and substance use disorders as well as other important comorbidities and socio-demographic characteristics. The median age at index was 53 years (Interquartile Range (IQR) 38–67), and 62.6% were women. The median time to discontinuation in women was 16 days (IQR: 6–29) while the median time to discontinuation in men was 19 days (IQR: 6–29). Lorazepam was the most commonly prescribed benzodiazepine on index (63.9%), followed by clonazepam (17.3%) and diazepam (5.8%). In multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards Models, longer index prescriptions were associated with a lower likelihood of benzodiazepine discontinuation (adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) 0.54 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) [0.54,0.54]) for 8–14 days; aHR 0.26 (95% CI [0.25,0.26] for 15–30 days and aHR 0.14 (95% CI [0.14,0.14]) for >30 days, compared to ≤7 days, respectively). Being prescribed two or more benzodiazepines versus 1 was also associated with a reduced likelihood of discontinuation (aHR 0.59 (95% CI [0.57,0.61])), as was being prescribed long-acting benzodiazepines (aHR 0.80 (95% CI [0.80,0.80])) or a combination of short and long acting benzodiazepine (aHR 0.84 (95% CI [0.80,0.88])) versus short-acting benzodiazepines alone. Mean daily doses of >5 to ≤10 DME and >10 to ≤20 DME were associated with an increased likelihood of discontinuation (aHR 1.03 (95% CI [1.03,1.03]); aHR: 1.03 (95% CI [1.03,1.04])), whereas doses >20 DME were associated with a reduced likelihood of discontinuation (aHR 0.98 (95% CI [0.97,0.98])) compared with ≤5 DME. Findings may be subject to bias from unmeasured confounding. Conclusion This large population-based cohort study found that prescribing shorter courses of benzodiazepines, use of a single benzodiazepine, use of a short-acting agent, were associated with reduced likelihood of long-term benzodiazepine use. Findings suggest that simple changes to prescribing practices could reduce prolonged benzodiazepine use and the morbidity and mortality associated with long-term use of these medications.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Execution-State Capsules: Graph-Bound Execution-State Checkpoint and Restore for Low-Latency, Small-Batch, On-Device Physical-AI Serving

Authors:

arXiv:2606.20537v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mainstream LLM serving systems reuse prefix work mainly through paged or radix key-value (KV) caches. This is highly effective for high-throughput, high-concurrency serving, but it manages only one positional fragment of execution state: the KV cache. We study the opposite regime: low-latency, small-batch, on-device physical-AI serving, where interactive LLM agents, speech systems, and robot policies repeatedly branch, reset, interrupt, and re-enter under tight responsiveness budgets. We introduce execution-state capsules, a graph-bound checkpoint and restore mechanism for the complete restorable state at a committed boundary. FlashRT is a white-box, backend-facing kernel runtime whose evaluated NVIDIA CUDA backend runs captured graph plans over contiguous static buffers with no block-table indirection. Because the live state is a closed set of named buffers, a capsule can snapshot, restore, fork, or roll back the whole execution boundary, including KV, recurrent state, convolution state, MTP state, and metadata. This moves reuse from token-addressed KV fragments to graph-bound execution-state boundaries. On an RTX 5090, capsule restore is byte-exact at the stored-state level and token-identical under greedy decode. A KV-only ablation diverges, showing that recurrent state is load-bearing. GPU-resident snapshot and restore are sub-millisecond, and TTFT speedup over cold prefill grows from 3.9x at 2k tokens to 27x at 16k tokens. On Jetson AGX Thor and DGX Spark, the same correctness and structural properties hold. Capsules are not a replacement for high-throughput KV-cache serving; they define a complementary latency-first serving point for explicit execution-state reuse.

18.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Efficient Magic State Factory Via Transversal Non-Clifford Gate

arXiv:2606.16199v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Magic-state preparation is a central component of fault-tolerant quantum computing. Recent theoretical and experimental successes in code-switch-based magic-state preparation have underscored the promise of these methods for quantum error correction. Similarly, magic-state cultivation has likewise been demonstrated in both numerical and experimental settings. However, a thorough comparison between magic-state cultivation and code-switch-based magic-state factories is still missing. In this work, we carry out end-to-end simulations of magic-state preparation using code switching and compare its resource requirements and performance against magic-state cultivation. As part of this analysis, we develop a lattice-surgery protocol for transfer between the doubled color code and the rotated surface code. We extend the complete code-switching protocol to the $d=5$ doubled color code and perform the corresponding end-to-end simulations. Finally, we propose two fault-tolerant magic-state preparation protocols that combine phase-kickback checks with a transversal non-Clifford gate.

19.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-19

ContinuumCellAgent: A Framework-Guided Agent for Long-Horizon Scientific Research

AI-scientist systems are beginning to automate parts of scientific research. We present ContinuumCellAgent, an autonomous agent that executes literature review, hypothesis formation, computational experimentation, manuscript drafting, and adversarial peer review as a single unattended run. Existing AI scientist systems remain difficult to diagnose because they lack modularity, systematic prompt grounding, and observability into long-running behavior. ContinuumCellAgent addresses these gaps with a modular supernode architecture for stage-wise backend swapping, protocols grounded in curated research-method checklists that also define reviewer rubrics, and a diagnostics layer that records file-based artifacts, message traces, and state transitions. We evaluate the system on open-domain QA benchmarks and biomedical/longevity case studies, showing that it can produce checkable research artifacts while exposing pipeline dynamics for rigorous AI co-scientist research.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Before the Labels: How Dataset Construction Shapes Suicidality Detection in Clinical Text

Clinical NLP increasingly relies on electronic health record (EHR) data to detect suicidal behaviors, treating clinical documentation as more reliable ground truth than social media. We argue that this framing obscures how EHR-based suicidality datasets encode a particular operationalization of suicidality, shaped by who authors the data, how episodes are bounded, and how ambiguity is resolved. We ground this argument in a case study of the ScAN dataset, built over MIMIC-III clinical notes. We show how governance constraints, ICD-based cohort selection, single-annotator labeling, and hospital-stay-level aggregation produce labels that reflect clinician-documented judgments, treat suicidality as a bounded episode, and assume that intent can be reliably inferred from documentation. A linguistic analysis demonstrates that identical labels subsume heterogeneous clinical framings differing in temporality, negation, and uncertainty. We argue that clinical NLP should examine the assumptions embedded in suicidality datasets before interpreting their labels as ground truth.

21.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-18

Metrics for Evaluating Biological AI Model Predictive Accuracy at the Data-Substrate Level

Authors:

Reports in the biological literature disagree on whether a given model can predict a biological outcome from a given data sample — one study finding a model capable, another, on the same kind of data, finding it is not. This is particularly a challenge in relation to LLMs–where the models are large and opaque, with weights and training data inaccessible.textbf{ }Such disagreements cannot be settled by directly inspecting the model. To address this challenge, we considertextbf{ }an alternative approach: assessing whether the data sample is adequate to support the prediction asserted. For a given dataset, its substrate — the underlying structure of the data — determines what any model can recover, independent of architecture or capacity. At the same time, predicting the present state of a biological process and predicting the direction of its future change are different tasks; the second is supportable among AI models only where the data encode direction as determinable from the state — a property we call encoding — and is unsupportable where the same observed state precedes change in opposite directions — a property we call non-identifiability, in the informational rather than the statistical sense. We introduce two generic metrics, Predictive Blindness Risk (PBR) and Prediction Indeterminacy Measure (PIM), that evaluate a data substrate for predictive accuracy directly — without access to model weights, architecture, or training data — and locate the regions of a data substrate where a predictive claim can be supported and where it cannot. Using human biological subjects, we employ the Yale Brain Metastases Longitudinal Data (1,430 human subjects; 11,892 MRI studies; four sequences) and show that direction of change was non-identifiable across regions encompassing the majority of transitions; a nonlinear AI model gained essentially nothing over majority-direction prediction there while recovering direction near-perfectly where the state encoded it; and model accuracy tracked data-substrate resolvability continuously (Spearman {rho} = -0.95 to -1.00). The metrics adjudicate, before any model is trusted and from the data alone, where claims of predictive accuracy — of state, or of the law of change — can be supported.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Mitigating Disparate Impact of Differentially Private Learning through Bounded Adaptive Clipping

arXiv:2506.01396v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Differential privacy (DP) has become an essential framework for privacy-preserving machine learning. Existing DP learning methods, however, often have disparate impacts on model predictions, e.g., for minority groups. Gradient clipping, which is often used in DP learning, can suppress larger gradients from challenging samples. We show that this problem is amplified by adaptive clipping, which will often shrink the clipping bound to tiny values to match a well-fitting majority, while significantly reducing the accuracy for others. We propose bounded adaptive clipping, which introduces a tunable lower bound to prevent excessive gradient suppression. Our method improves worst-class accuracy by over 10 percentage points on Skewed and Fashion MNIST compared to unbounded adaptive clipping, 7 points compared to Automatic clipping, and 5 points compared to constant clipping. The code is available at https://github.com/TrustworthyMLHelsinki/adaptive-clipping-fairness.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Sustainability assessment using multimodal AI agents

arXiv:2507.17012v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Reducing the rapidly growing environmental impact of the computing industry requires assessing the emissions of electronics at scale. However, a traditional life cycle assessment (LCA) of an electronic device, which maps materials and processes to environmental impacts, often requires proprietary or unavailable data. Here, we reimagine conventional sustainability assessment by introducing a multimodal multi-agent AI system that emulates the collaborative process between LCA professionals and stakeholders (such as product managers and engineers) to automatically estimate the carbon footprint of electronic devices. The agents iteratively construct a complete life-cycle inventory by leveraging a structured data abstraction and software tools that mine information from the public internet, including repair communities and government regulatory databases. This reduces data gaps and data collection from weeks or months of expert time to under one minute. The system can calculate carbon footprint within 19% of expert LCAs with zero proprietary data (typical of the variation between human LCAs). We also show that by encoding domain-specific knowledge, environmental impact estimation can be reframed as a data-driven prediction task, in which both unknown products and emission factors are represented as weighted combinations of similar ones with known emissions.

24.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-08

Targeting Cancer-Specific Mutations with RNA-Triggered Chromatin Shredding

Authors:

Genetic mutations that drive cancer often occur in tumor suppressor proteins, including the p53 transcription factor which is altered in ~40-50% of cases1,2. However, current therapies fail to target most such mutations because the mutant proteins typically lack defined drug-binding pockets, and restoring the endogenous function has proven challenging. Here, we programmed CRISPR-Cas12a2, an RNA-guided nuclease with trans-nucleolytic cleavage activities3,4, to selectively kill cancer cells by targeting cancer-specific transcripts. This approach limits cell growth by inducing trans shredding of chromatin, triggering DNA damage responses and cell death. Unlike existing methods, RNA-guided Cas12a2 senses cellular RNA signatures, enabling precise targeting of undruggable mutations. Transcript-activated chromatin shredding provides a new approach to precision disease treatments for undruggable targets.

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Autodata: An agentic data scientist to create high quality synthetic data

We introduce Autodata, a general method that enables AI agents to act as data scientists who build high quality training and evaluation data. We show how to train (meta-optimize) such a data scientist agent, so that it learns to create even stronger data. We describe the overall formulation, and a specific practical implementation, Agentic Self-Instruct. We conduct experiments on computer science research tasks, legal reasoning tasks and reasoning with mathematical objects, where we obtain improved results compared to classical synthetic dataset creation methods. Further, meta-optimizing the data scientist agent itself delivers an even larger performance uplift. Agentic data creation provides a way to convert increased inference compute into higher quality model training. Overall, we believe this direction has the potential to change the way we build AI data.