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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

A Benchmark for Omni-Modal Reasoning in Long Videos

Long-form omni-modal video understanding requires integrating vision, speech, and ambient audio with coherent long-context reasoning. Existing video benchmarks often trade off temporal scale, modality coverage, open-ended interaction, and interpretable scoring. To address this gap, we introduce LongShOTBench, a long video understanding benchmark designed around three coupled goals: holistic omni-modal integration, intent-driven open-ended interaction, and rubric-level diagnosis. It builds single- and multi-turn questions from real viewing scenarios, with systematic tasks probing visual, speech, ambient-audio, temporal, and cross-modal reasoning. Each item includes a reference answer and a weighted criterion-level rubric, letting evaluation identify which perceptual facts, temporal links, modality-grounding requirements, and reasoning steps are satisfied or missed. All samples are manually verified to improve grounding, clarity, and rubric reliability. We also introduce LongShOTAgent, a training-free omni-modal evidence-seeking agent coupling full-video preprocessing with targeted retrieval, query-adaptive segment refinement, and explicit claim verification over visual, speech, and non-speech audio evidence. Its iterative search-refine-verify loop exposes intermediate evidence and lets modality-specific specialists re-analyze relevant moments before answering. We evaluate 105 video-capable models spanning open-source omni-modal models, vision-language systems, audio LLMs, agentic pipelines and closed-source APIs. Current MLLMs remain far from saturating LongShOTBench, while our LongShOTAgent is the strongest training-free system, reaching 66.64% overall. By releasing the benchmark, leaderboard, and method, we provide a shared, interpretable testbed for advancing long-form omni-modal video reasoning. Code, data, and the leaderboard are available at https://longshot.cvmbzuai.com/.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

WiFi-Based People Counting Using Beam-Steerable Antennas: A Test-bed Study

arXiv:2606.23710v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Ubiquitous perception through RF signals is a pivotal opportunity for future technology: it enables personalized services such as smart living, remote healthcare, automated logistics or interaction through free-space gestures. The ubiquity of Wi-Fi and cellular networks presents a promising platform for the development of innovative sensing tools. Future standards will also introduce dedicated sensing features which, for example, will allow routers to work as frequency modulated continuous wave radios targeting radar applications. Most of the current chip designs support ad-hoc firmware for CSI extraction with MIMO arrangements of the transmitter (TX) and receiver (RX) antennas and OFDM subcarriers. The CSI describes the phase shift and amplitude attenuation of multiple propagation paths on each subcarrier. The latest IEEE 802.11be standard (Wi-Fi 7) offers a wider subcarrier bandwidth of 160MHz (up to 320MHz), providing at least 120 usable pilot subcarriers for CSI or CIR estimation. Additionally, Wi-Fi signals have been recently exploited to track daily human movements and behaviors, while Wi-Fi signal variations have been shown to differ between different people and can consequently be used for their re-identification.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

LLM-Powered Virtual Population for Demand Simulation and Pricing

We develop an LLM-powered virtual population model that simulates demand for pricing decisions, in settings where products are described by rich unstructured information, such as text descriptions and images, and where decision makers need not only mean-demand predictions but also uncertainty estimates for counterfactual prices. Our model represents exposed customers as draws from a finite mixture of customer personas. For each persona, product, and candidate price, an LLM elicits a persona-level purchase probability using both structured persona information and unstructured product information. These probabilities are aggregated through calibrated mixture weights to form a predictive distribution of aggregate demand. The resulting simulator can evaluate counterfactual prices under various pricing objectives, including expected revenue and risk-aware criteria such as conditional value at risk. We test the framework on an online H&M fashion dataset with product descriptions and images. The calibrated LLM-based simulator achieves the best overall predictive performance among the models considered, and supports sample-efficient pricing decisions. Our framework provides a practical way to use LLMs as demand simulators for products with limited historical demand data but rich product information. By producing a full predictive demand distribution rather than only a point forecast, it enables managers to compare candidate prices, quantify demand uncertainty, and choose prices that target either average-case revenue or risk-aware objectives.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Decomposing one-class support vector machine into an ensemble of one-data support vector machines

arXiv:2606.16002v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: One-class classification (OCC) is a classification problem in which the training data contains only one class. The one-class support vector machine (OCSVM) is one of the most competitive OCC algorithms. However, OCSVM has scalability issues with large-scale datasets. This paper proposes the acceleration strategy of OCSVM. The idea is to decompose the dataset into samples and train OCSVM models for single data points. Subsequently, ensemble learning is applied to combine all models to compute the OCSVM model for the dataset. In addition, further acceleration is achieved through a data-reduction strategy with an OCSVM model trained on the average of the training samples. The experiment compared the proposal and traditional OCSVM using the Python package. The proposed strategy is faster than traditional OCSVM, while achieving similar classification results. Moreover, the proposed strategy can create one-to-one correspondence between samples and models. Source code is uploaded at https://github.com/ToshiHayashi/ODSVM

06.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Critical spectral behavior and large deviations for geometric $\alpha$-stable processes

arXiv:2606.17501v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper, we study the Schrödinger-type operator associated with geometric stable processes on $\mathbb{R}^{d}$, especially the differentiability of spectral function. Let $\mathcal{H}$ be the generator of the geometric stable process and $\mu$ a smooth measure on $\mathbb{R}^{d}$. Then the spectral function $C(\theta)$ is defined as $C(\theta) = -\inf \sigma(-\mathcal{H} - \theta \mu)$, where $\sigma(\mathcal{A})$ denotes the spectrum of $\mathcal{A}$ and $\theta$ is a real parameter. Since the geometric stable process exhibits severe local singularities in its Lévy measure, its transition semigroup lacks ultracontractivity, which invalidates classical methods for proving the differentiability. To overcome this obstacle, we use the compact embedding of the extended Dirichlet space into $L^2(\mu)$. As a primary application of this differentiability, we establish a large deviation principle for a positive continuous additive functional associated with the smooth measure $\mu$.

07.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-25

Forced Gap Post-Selection for Quantum LDPC Codes and their Operations

arXiv:2605.20346v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We develop a simple and general post-selection strategy for high-rate quantum codes that is transferrable across decoders. After an initial baseline run, the decoder is re-run once per logical observable, and forced in these latter runs to provide a solution where the given observable has the complementary outcome. Shots are rejected that find logically complementary solutions with similar likelihoods compared to the baseline. Using the Relay-BP decoder, we benchmark the strategy on the $72$-qubit and $144$-qubit bivariate bicycle codes, as well as surgery gadgets for the latter. In comparison to previous post-selection strategies, our results offer an improved logical error rate by over a factor of $4$ on the same circuit and physical error rate, and at the same rate of post-selection. Our strategies are also lightweight, relying only on FPGA-friendly belief propagation, whereas the previous best used repeated rounds of a high-latency BP-OSD decoder.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

The Price of Anarchy in Disaggregated Inference

arXiv:2606.17081v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Disaggregated inference architectures physically separate prefill and decode phases onto distinct GPU pools, creating competing "agents" that share a fixed hardware budget. We provide, to our knowledge, the first formal game-theoretic analysis of this architecture, using NVIDIA Dynamo as a concrete case study. We model disaggregated serving as three coupled games: a two-player resource game between prefill and decode pools, a selfish caching game over the hierarchical KV cache, and a congestion game with positive externalities for request routing. We empirically validate the latter two; the P/D resource game is treated analytically (Section 9.2). We characterize how GPU saturation induces regime transitions that shift the game's payoff structure: below saturation, selfish behavior has bounded Price of Anarchy (PoA); at saturation, superlinear latency and cache externalities drive our empirical estimator PoA-hat (defined in Section 6.4) upward. Based on this analysis, we design an adaptive controller that detects saturation transitions in real time and adjusts routing parameters accordingly, shifting from cache-affinity exploitation to load-balanced congestion avoidance. We instantiate our framework on a 3-node NVIDIA B200 cluster running Dynamo with two models, Nemotron-4-340B (TP=8, full-node workers with cross-InfiniBand KV transfers) and Llama-3.1-70B (TP=4), and find the same three-regime PoA-hat structure with the same first post-knee grid point (C=128) on both models. Adaptive routing shifts each model to a better operating point. Our strongest result is on the 70B 1P/5D topology, where PoA-hat drops 3.1x (66.4 to 21.5) in the saturated phase at a 13% throughput cost. On the 70B 1P/2D, PoA-hat drops 2.2x and TTFT P99 drops 7.6x (see Section 8.5).

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Grouped Query Experts: Mixture-of-Experts on GQA Self-Attention

arXiv:2606.20945v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Self-attention is central to Transformer performance and is often the most expensive part of the Transformer at long context lengths because its pairwise token interactions scale quadratically with sequence length. Standard dense attention also applies the same set of attention heads to every token regardless of token difficulty or information content. This uniform activation can waste compute, especially as sequences grow longer and attention cost increases rapidly. We propose Grouped Query Experts (GQE), a mixture-of-experts layer on top of grouped-query attention (GQA). Within each GQA group, a router selects k query-head experts per token while all key-value (KV) heads remain dense and unchanged. Thus, GQE keeps the KV cache benefits of GQA and reduces only the active query-head computation. On a fixed 30B token budget at the 250M parameter scale, GQE matches the all-active GQA baseline in downstream accuracy while activating half the query heads per token.

10.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-25

Degree-preserving conservative processes and a unified approach for their hydrodynamics

arXiv:2604.03548v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We investigate a broad class of large-scale one-dimensional interacting systems characterized by a single conservation law and satisfying the "degree-preserving property". Under mild and natural assumptions, we establish a unified framework for the analysis of both invariant measures and hydrodynamic limits. In particular, we prove that when the generator preserves the degree of polynomials of the state variables up to order two, the marginals of any product invariant measure must belong to a family of six specific distributions. This classification is shown to be consistent with a classical result on univariate natural exponential families due to C.N. Morris, which we apply here for the first time in the context of microscopic stochastic systems. As a consequence, we construct a new interacting particle system whose invariant measure is given by the generalized hyperbolic secant distribution. Furthermore, we prove that, despite the generality of the dynamics, the macroscopic behavior of all models in this class is governed by the classical heat equation, with a diffusion coefficient depending explicitly on the underlying microscopic interactions.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Urban Heat MiniCubes: An AI-Ready dataset for urban heat research

arXiv:2606.11534v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Urban heat is amplified by impermeable surfaces and heterogeneous built environments, yet street-level variability remains difficult to quantify because multi-sensor observations are rarely available in consistent, analysis-ready form at the necessary spatiotemporal scales. We present "Urban Heat MiniCubes," a publicly available, FAIR-oriented dataset designed for machine learning applications in urban heat research. The dataset provides harmonized 90 x 90 km gridded data cubes for 48 cities in the Western Hemisphere spanning 2022-2023, with variables reprojected and collocated to a common grid to reduce preprocessing (e.g., reprojection, resampling, and spatiotemporal alignment). Urban Heat MiniCubes includes two complementary modalities: (i) higher-spatial-resolution, lower-frequency observations from Landsat 8/9 (e.g., surface reflectances) and Sentinel-1 (e.g., synthetic aperture radar backscatter), and (ii) higher-temporal-frequency, coarser observations from GOES-R (e.g., longwave infrared brightness temperatures) and a microwave land surface temperature product. We document variables and metadata and provide technical assessment using inter-variable analyses and autoencoder-based reconstruction-error summaries across pixel classes (e.g., water and cloud). Potential use cases and limitations are also discussed.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

An interpretable unsupervised representation learning for high precision measurement in particle physics

arXiv:2511.22246v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Unsupervised learning has been widely applied to various tasks in particle physics. However, existing models lack precise control over their learned representations, limiting physical interpretability and hindering their use for accurate measurements. We propose the Histogram AutoEncoder (HistoAE), an unsupervised representation learning network featuring a custom histogram-based loss that enforces a physically structured latent space. Applied to silicon microstrip detectors, HistoAE learns an interpretable two-dimensional latent space corresponding to the particle's charge and impact position. After simple post-processing, it achieves a charge resolution of $0.25\,e$ and a position resolution of $3\,\mu\mathrm{m}$ on beam-test data, comparable to the conventional approach. These results demonstrate that unsupervised deep learning models can enable physically meaningful and quantitatively precise measurements. Moreover, the generative capacity of HistoAE enables straightforward extensions to fast detector simulations.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Geometry-Aware Style Transfer in 3D Gaussian Splatting

In this paper, we present a novel geometry-aware style transfer framework for 3D Gaussian splatting (3DGS) that simultaneously transfers appearance attributes and geometric structures. Unlike prior works that primarily focus on color-based stylization and often overlook structural adaptation, our method explicitly incorporates geometry adaptation through a decoupled optimization scheme that alternately updates color and geometry parameters. This strategy alleviates potential interference between color and geometry updates, leading to stable and consistent scene-level geometry transformation. The decoupled optimization is enabled by the proposed geometry-aware contrastive feature matching (GCFM). GCFM integrates RGB, depth, and edge cues into a contrastive objective and is employed in both optimization phases to effectively transfer structural characteristics from style images to Gaussian primitives. Extensive experiments show that our approach achieves superior performance in both qualitative fidelity and quantitative metrics, significantly outperforming existing 3DGS-based stylization methods. Our code is available at \href{https://github.com/oweixx/gast}{https://github.com/oweixx/gast}.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Decoupling Reconnaissance and Exploitation: Measuring the Capability Boundaries of LLM-Based Web Penetration Testing

arXiv:2606.25332v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise for automated penetration testing, yet existing end-to-end black-box evaluations are highly susceptible to error cascading: failures in early reconnaissance can mask an agent's actual ability to exploit vulnerabilities. To more accurately characterize these capabilities, we propose a two-stage decoupled evaluation framework that separates exploit execution from reconnaissance. Using ground-truth injection and knowledge-driven ablation across 70 high-fidelity web vulnerability testbeds, our framework isolates exploitation performance from reconnaissance noise. We empirically evaluate five open-source penetration-testing agents, covering multiagent, monolithic, and graph-driven architectures, on a strictly aligned subset of 50 representative vulnerabilities. The results reveal a substantial capability gap. With accurate vulnerability context, agents achieve a functional success rate of up to 90.0%, whereas autonomous reconnaissance, measured by targeted vulnerability recall, plateaus at approximately 50.0%, primarily due to failures in parsing unstructured telemetry. Cross-architectural analysis further reveals distinct capability niches: multi-agent isolation is more effective for long-sequence interactions such as de-serialization, while monolithic and graph-driven designs perform better on short-chain injections and cross-session access-control vulnerabilities, respectively. This decoupled evaluation work provides a fine-grained benchmarking protocol and an empirical basis for designing next-generation automated offensive security agents.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Contaminated Collaboration: Measuring Gender Bias Transfer in LLM-Assisted Student Writing

Gender bias in LLMs has been studied extensively in model outputs, with biased prompts shown to amplify stereotyped generations. Whether such bias propagates into text produced by humans who use these systems, however, remains underexplored. We investigate whether gender bias in an LLM writing assistant transfers into career plan essays written by students. We first verify that a gender-biased prompt induces gender-differentiated language in LLM-generated essays, while a neutral prompt does not. We then recruited participants (N = 123) in a controlled environment to write career plan essays for paired biographical profiles differing only in gender under three conditions: no AI assistance, neutral LLM assistance, or gender-biased LLM assistance. Students in the biased condition produced essays with a significantly larger agentic gap and more gender-stereotypic occupation suggestions than those in the control and neutral conditions. Our results also reveal that this bias transfer is asymmetric: agency is suppressed in female-target essays while male-target writing remains largely unaffected. Our findings highlight the risk of bias propagation in AI-assisted writing, calling for fairness-aware design in educational AI tools.

17.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Flux magnetism in a strongly interacting dipolar lattice supersolid under tunable gauge fields

arXiv:2509.05058v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Supersolidity and magnetism are fundamental phenomena characterizing strongly correlated matter. Here we unveil a mechanism that directly connects these two regimes and can be experimentally accessed in ultracold atomic systems. Specifically, we exploit the distinctive properties of magnetic lanthanide atoms trapped in a one-dimensional anti-magic wavelength optical lattice. This platform enables a realistic implementation of a triangular Bose-Hubbard ladder featuring two key ingredients: strong long-range interactions and tunable gauge fields. Owing to these properties, our numerical analysis reveals a robust lattice supersolid regime with finite fluxes in each triangular plaquette. Remarkably, we show that the density modulation of the supersolid phase and a finite gauge field induce magnetic ordering of the fluxes, forming ferromagnetic and ferrimagnetic patterns. Our results thus reveal a fascinating quantum effect that bridges supersolidity and magnetism.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Beyond Shapley: Efficient Computation of Asymmetric Shapley Values

arXiv:2606.25103v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We address the problem of explainability in machine learning models through feature attribution methods. In particular, we consider a variant of Shapley values known as Asymmetric Shapley Values (ASV), which enables the incorporation of causal knowledge into model-agnostic explanations through the use of a causal graph. We show that in certain contexts in which the computation of SHAP is $\#P$-hard, the exact computation of ASV can be done in polynomial time. To extend this algorithmic result, we introduce a notion of equivalence classes over the topological orderings of the underlying causal graph, which is useful to reduce the time to compute ASV. In particular, we present a polynomial-time algorithm (in the number of equivalence classes) to compute it whenever the causal graph is a rooted directed tree. Finally, we develop an algorithm for approximating ASV in arbitrary causal DAGs which relies on a procedure to sample topological orderings uniformly at random. To implement this sampling mechanism we leverage known algorithms as well as simpler alternatives. Our experimental results demonstrate the practical viability of the proposed approach in realistic causal structures.

19.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-25

Many-Body Second Order Green's Function Theory for Ab Initio Molecular Quantum Electrodynamics

arXiv:2606.26076v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this work, we develop two many-body quantum electrodynamic methods to calculate the ground-state energies of strongly coupled light-matter molecular systems. Specifically, we extend the second-order many-body Green's function theory (GF2) for electronic systems to incorporate electron-boson couplings. We employ two ansätze to treat the bosonic part of the system, namely the coherent-state (CS) and Lang-Firsov (LF) transformed vacuum state. These are combined with the GF2 method to construct two new approaches, which we refer to as CS-GF2 and LF-GF2. We benchmark CS- and LF-GF2 by studying various molecular systems inside an optical cavity. We investigate $\mathrm{H}_2$ and $\mathrm{LiH}$ potential energy surfaces, keto-eneol tautomerization energy barrier, van-der Waals interactions between two $\mathrm{H_2}$ molecules and the torsional potential energy surface of the ethylene molecule, $\mathrm{C_2H_4}$. Both methods provide highly accurate energies, with only modest additional improvement observed in LF-GF2.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Making Models Unmergeable via Scaling-Sensitive Loss Landscape

arXiv:2601.21898v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The rise of model hubs has made it easier to access reusable model components, making model merging a practical tool for combining capabilities. Yet, this modularity also creates a governance gap: downstream users can recompose released weights into unauthorized mixtures that bypass safety alignment or licensing terms. Because existing defenses are largely post-hoc and architecture-specific, they provide inconsistent protection across diverse architectures and release formats in practice. To close this gap, we propose Trap$^2$, an architecture-agnostic protection framework that encodes protection into updates during fine-tuning, regardless of whether they are released as adapters or full models. Instead of relying on architecture-dependent approaches, Trap$^2$ uses weight re-scaling as a simple proxy for the merging process. It keeps released weights effective in standalone use, but degrades them under re-scaling that often arises in merging, undermining unauthorized recomposition.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Learning What to Remember: Observability-Safe Memory Retention via Constrained Optimization for Long-Horizon Language Agents

arXiv:2606.10616v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Long-horizon language agents accumulate observations, reasoning traces, and retrieved facts that exceed their finite context windows, making memory retention a fundamental resource-allocation problem. Existing memory systems improve management through heuristic scoring, retrieval optimization, or learned compression, but largely treat retention as a local decision problem and do not explicitly model its long-term consequences under realistic observability constraints. To fill this gap, we formulate memory retention as a constrained stochastic optimization problem with explicit budget feasibility, evidence utility, and delayed costs including miss penalties, reacquisition delays, and stale-information risk. We then propose OSL-MR (Observability-Safe Learning for Memory Retention), a novel framework that enforces a strict separation between online-observable features and offline-available supervision (OAS). OSL-MR combines an evidence learner trained from realized evidence supervision with a Mixed-Score heuristic that serves both as a deployable online-safe baseline and as a structured inductive prior for learning. The resulting policy learns query-conditioned evidence value directly from interaction data while remaining deployable under the same observability constraints. Experiments on LOCOMO and LongMemEval show that OSL-MR consistently outperforms recency-based methods, Generative Agents-style scoring, and other heuristic baselines, particularly under tight memory budgets. The Mixed-Score prior further improves precision while preserving recall, and sensitivity analysis demonstrates robustness across a wide range of cost configurations.

22.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

MaxProof: Scaling Mathematical Proof with Generative-Verifier RL and Population-Level Test-Time Scaling

We present MaxProof, a population-level test-time scaling framework for competition-level mathematical proof in the MiniMax-M3 series. M3 first trains three proof-oriented capabilities – proof generation, proof verification, and critique-conditioned proof repair – using a defense-in-depth generative verifier engineered for low false-positive rate. These capabilities are merged into a single released M3 model. At test time, MaxProof treats the model as a generator, verifier, refiner, and ranker, searches over a population of candidate proofs, and returns one final proof through tournament selection. With MaxProof test-time scaling, the M3 model reaches 35/42 on IMO 2025 and 36/42 on USAMO 2026, exceeding the human gold-medal threshold on both.

23.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Quantum Network Routing based on Surface Code Error Correction

arXiv:2606.12781v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantum networks encounter unavoidable channel noises and erasure errors, presenting a huge obstacle in designing protocols that attain both high reliability and efficiency. Typically, quantum networks fall into two categories: those utilize quantum entanglements for quantum teleportation, and those directly transfer the actual quantum messages. In this paper, we present SurfNet, a quantum network that inherits the main advantages from both categories. It employs surface codes as logical qubits for encoding messages, and utilizes two parallel communication channels to fault-tolerantly transfer each surface code in a modular manner. Our approach of using surface codes can timely correct both operational and photon loss errors within the network, and the integration of the two channels within the network can greatly improve network throughput. For the implementation of SurfNet, we propose a novel network architecture, designed to better integrate surface codes into quantum networks. We also propose a novel error correction decoder, designed to fully utilize the modular characteristic of surface codes within our network. Simulation results demonstrate that SurfNet with its decoder significantly enhances the communication fidelity within quantum networks.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Triangular Consistency as a Universal Constraint for Learning Optical Flow

arXiv:2606.19938v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose triangular consistency as a first-principled constraint for optical flow, which is agnostic to network architecture, supervision type, and dataset, and applies to both image-pair and multi-frame settings. This simple but powerful constraint is to compose two flows to induce a third flow and enforce consistency among the three. The composed flows may arise from (i) image pairs, yielding cycle consistency; (ii) multiple video frames, producing longer-range motion through temporal chaining; or (iii) image pairs combined with controlled synthetic transformations, which becomes data augmentation. This triangular consistency introduces negligible computational overhead and requires no additional annotations. Since it is derived directly from the geometry of optical flow, it does not rely on model-specific assumptions and serves as a ``universal'' plug-and-play component for optical flow training. Experiments show consistent improvement across supervised, unsupervised, and transfer learning settings.

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Re-feeding Is Not Replaying: Measuring Replay Noise in Counterfactual Token-Credit Estimation

Authors:

Per-token counterfactual credit estimation asks which token in a language-model rollout caused the final answer to be right or wrong: cut the transcript at a pivot, substitute an alternative token, replay continuations, and compare outcomes. Published methods re-feed the transcript prefix as a fresh prompt, assuming this reproduces the state the model passed through during generation. We measure what that assumption costs on a stock inference engine, with a three-pass design: continuations resumed from the verified decode-time KV state, an identical second exact pass (a replica noise floor), and a re-feed pass. Across six configurations and three models (including a GRPO-trained checkpoint), at low-margin decision tokens, re-feeding changes the credit estimate at rates 14-28 percentage points above the replica floor (7-21pp under a treatment-independent conditioning; problem-clustered t = 2.9-6.4). Most changes are zero-boundary crossings of the quantized estimator rather than polarity reversals, and the perturbation is consistent with mean-zero, so averaged quantities are largely safe; but selection is not: a critical-token set chosen by thresholding $|\hat{A}_t|$ under re-feed overlaps the exact-resume selection at Jaccard 0.34-0.90, versus a 0.63-0.96 replica ceiling. A causal confirmation closes the loop: under vLLM's batch-invariant kernels all three passes are identical on every measured channel, with both disagreement rates exactly zero. Replica passes themselves disagree on 9-23% of eligible estimates: single-sample credit measurements at decision tokens are unreliable under any replay. Settings were fixed in advance; exact-pass cache hits in the second campaign are instrumented (100% hit rate, 3,434 pivots); total compute was under 10 USD. We recommend that counterfactual credit studies resume decoder state or use batch-invariant kernels, and report a replica floor.