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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

The Complexity of Min-Max Optimization for Quadratic Polynomials

Authors:
Martino Bernasconi↗Matteo Castiglioni↗Andrea Celli↗Alexandros Hollender↗

arXiv:2606.17000v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We prove that computing approximate stationary points of min-max optimization over the hypercube is PPAD-hard for quadratic polynomials. This holds even when the polynomials are multilinear, each variable appears in at most three monomials, and the approximation factor is inverse polynomial. As a direct consequence, we obtain the first PPAD-hardness results for two-team zero-sum polymatrix games.

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02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

CARE: Competence-Aware Reward Shaping for Adaptive Reasoning Length in Video-MLLMs

Authors:
Chengwen Liu↗Hao Peng↗Jisheng Dang↗Hong Peng↗Bin Hu↗Tat-Seng Chua↗

In multimodal video reasoning, reinforcement learning-based methods typically rely on simplistic and inflexible reasoning-length control strategies that fail to adapt to the model's evolving competence. This mismatch may suppress necessary exploration at early stages, while encouraging redundant reasoning and inefficient decoding once the model becomes more competent. In this paper, we propose CARE, a competence-aware reward shaping framework for adaptive reasoning length optimization in multimodal reasoning. Specifically, CARE maintains a smoothed competence estimate via an exponential moving average of pass rates, and uses it to route training into progressive stages that shift the reward preference from exploration-oriented long-form reasoning to efficiency-oriented concise reasoning. To avoid conflating verbosity with intrinsic task complexity, CARE further normalizes reasoning effort with batch-level statistics, and introduces a posterior amplifier to strengthen reward signals for unexpectedly strong performance on historically difficult samples. The proposed mechanism is seamlessly integrated into the GRPO training pipeline and incurs no additional inference-time overhead. Extensive experiments on multiple video reasoning and general video understanding benchmarks demonstrate that CARE consistently improves reasoning accuracy, stabilizes reinforcement learning, and significantly enhances token efficiency. Moreover, CARE exhibits a characteristic inverted-U trajectory of reasoning length during training, and yields shorter yet more informative reasoning traces at convergence, indicating effective adaptive allocation of reasoning budget. We provide the source code for our proposed CARE framework and experiments at https://github.com/1Pansy/Video-CARE.

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03.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-22

Stereoretentive decarbonylative C(sp<sup>3</sup>)-C(sp<sup>3</sup>) cross-coupling

Authors:
Zhidao Huang↗

While C(sp3)–C(sp3) bond-forming cross-coupling methods have become more common, stereocontrolled bond-formation remains a challenge,1 despite its importance for drug discovery, where there is a emerging demand for molecules with increased sp3 character.2-4 Enantiospecific cross-coupling approaches would complement advances in enantioselective coupling,5-8 but have been limited to specialized substrates with lower availability5,9 because stereospecific oxidative addition of more abundant chiral alkyl electrophiles is unknown.10 Inspired by the classic, stereoretentive Curtius rearrangement,11 herein we disclose a catalytic strategy that proceeds by an analogous stereoretentive decarbonylation step to form a versatile chiral alkylnickel intermediate from easily-available chiral amino-acid and α-hydroxy-acid derivatives. The chiral alkylnickel intermediates decompose and/or racemize on the order of minutes, but are sufficiently stable to enable stereoretentive cross-electrophile coupling12 with alkyl radicals (derived from alkyl iodides) at relatively low temperature (22-40 °C). This mechanistic strategy provides a straightforward approach to stereocontrolled C(sp3)–C(sp3) bond formation, including diastereomers that are inaccessible by stereoselective radical mechanisms. The “metallo-Curtius” strategy described in this study lays a mechanistic foundation for the development many new stereospecific cross-coupling reactions.

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04.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-25

Klein–Gordon Dynamics from Intrinsic Phase Periodicity

Authors:
Emiliano Puddu↗

arXiv:2606.25929v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This work develops a phase-based formulation of relativistic wave dynamics, demonstrating that the Klein–Gordon equation emerges naturally from the foundational assumption of intrinsic phase periodicity in material fields. Mapping the phase directly onto the classical action, we postulate that localized excitations possess an invariant rest-frame oscillation governed by a proper frequency $\omega_0$. This physical condition establishes an operational mass-frequency relation, $m = \hbar \omega_0 / c^2$, without requiring rest energy as an independent, axiomatic input. We show that the Klein–Gordon equation arises as the minimal local, linear, Lorentz-invariant field equation compatible with this internal phase structure. Within this framework, mass acts as an intrinsic frequency scale governing wave propagation, and relativistic kinematics is fully recovered as a structural consequence of phase coherence. This approach provides a unified wave-mechanical interpretation where particle dynamics maps onto the group velocity of dispersive wave packets, offering an intuitive account of free propagation, dispersion, and tunneling across potential barriers.

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05.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-17

Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise

Authors:
Felicity S. McCormack↗

Despite large uncertainties associated with future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, ice-sheet models show that the rate of sea-level rise from Antarctic ice loss in 2025 is strongly predictive of the rate for the next several decades, regardless of emission pathway or model complexity. This finding is robust across all models that were considered in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report global mean sea-level projections, including the low-likelihood, high-impact scenarios of sea-level rise. Given this strong near-term decadal predictability, ice-sheet models that can accurately reproduce present-day ice-mass loss provide a reliable basis for near-term sea-level planning and adaptation through to mid-century. The predictability breaks down by the end of the twenty-first century as feedbacks, such as those related to marine ice-sheet retreat, begin to emerge, leading to accelerating ice loss. Drawing on these results, we identify key feedback mechanisms that can account for the transition between near-term decadal predictability and the longer-term, feedback-driven evolution, and suggest priorities for ice-sheet model development aimed at resolving long-term sea-level rise uncertainty. Although Antarctic ice loss projections diverge widely by 2100, this Perspective shows that present-day rates robustly predict mid-century sea level rise, providing a firm basis for near-term planning, while highlighting priorities for model development aimed at resolving longer-term sea level rise uncertainty.

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06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

HSQ-VLM: A Novel Spatially-Constrained Quadrant Segmentation VLM Model for Explainability in Diabetic Retinopathy

Authors:
Shivum Telang↗

Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) is an aggressive retinal disease and a leading cause of global blindness, yet its clinical management is currently hindered by the black-box nature of diagnostic AI. While deep learning models achieve high classification accuracy, there is a critical lack of explainability methods capable of detailing the exact anatomical landmarks and lesion distributions that lead to a clinical decision for DR. Therefore, we propose HSQ-VLM, a novel quadrant segmentation pipeline on fundus images that utilizes a Landmark-Anchored Cartesian Cross-Attention mechanism to unify visual feature extraction with structured clinical reasoning. Unlike traditional methods that rely on arbitrary image partitioning, our pipeline implements 4-quadrant Topological Latent Partitioning (TLP) to dynamically align retinal features with a fovea-centered coordinate system. This allows the Vision-Language Model to generate natural language reports that quantify pathology with anatomical precision. On a dataset of 3,500 high-resolution fundus images, this innovative methodology achieved a lesion detection sensitivity of 99.6% for hemorrhages and 96.4% for microaneurysms, while demonstrating a significant reduction in boundary-ambiguity errors compared to standard segmentation baselines.

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07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Incumbent Advantage: Brand Bias and Cognitive Manipulation Dynamics in LLM Recommendation Systems

Authors:
Xi Chu↗Yupeng Hou↗

Large language models (LLMs) are becoming a major way for consumers to find products, but we do not yet understand how brands compete in this new channel. We study brand dynamics in LLM recommendations using skincare products – a category where consumers cannot easily judge quality before buying and must rely on brand reputation – across three commercial LLMs (GPT-4o-mini, Claude Sonnet, Gemini 3 Flash), with a robustness check on search goods. In three experiments, we find: (1) a Conditional Monopoly where well-known brands get recommended 100% of the time (IAI = 10.0) when all products have the same specifications, but this dominance disappears with less than a +0.1-star rating advantage for a competitor; (2) authority-style marketing language, including fabricated clinical-evidence claims, breaks this monopoly at a Bias Surplus Value equal to +0.17 rating points, with each model responding differently; and (3) a social dilemma in multi-brand GEO competition: when all brands adopt the same optimization strategy, individual payoff falls from +0.802 to +0.007 in our payoff proxy, and non-participating brands receive zero recommendations in our tests. Our results suggest that generative engine optimization (GEO) should be studied not only as a security risk, but also as an emerging marketing practice that shapes market competition.

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08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Adapt Only When It Pays: Budgeted Decision-Loss Priority for Delayed Online Time-Series Adaptation

Authors:
Xibai Wang↗

arXiv:2606.25068v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Online time-series forecasters receive labels only after horizon-dependent delays, while every adaptation step spends limited compute. We study when an online learner should update, not how to adapt at every opportunity, and introduce ADOWIP: a residual-adapter framework with sealed delay queues, exact budget accounting, and auditable update telemetry. Its main scheduler is an observed decision-loss priority gate that updates only after feedback is revealed, when downstream loss, optionally penalized by prediction MSE, exceeds a calibrated empirical quantile and budget remains. We prove hard-budget feasibility, projected-OGD regret for a convex linear accepted-update subproblem, and stability plus conditional finite-sample gate-selection statements. On public ETT capacity-planning tasks, a frozen calibration/evaluation split selects a gate that lowers held-out decision loss against always, fixed-period, and drift-triggered exact-update baselines under matched compute. Secondary threshold/load-index ETT suites are mixed: 33 of 41 selected contrasts clear the stricter cross-artifact Holm family, and the 8 nonpassing rows are explicitly excluded from primary claims. The same protocol improves an external UCI Bike capacity proxy with 20/0 held-out wins, and a fixed gate passes three full-year Capital Bikeshare station-rebalancing contrasts. Probe-based and finance experiments remain negative, delimiting the current scope of decision-prioritized adaptation.

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09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Connect the Dots: Training LLMs for Long-Lifecycle Agents with Cross-Domain Generalization Via Reinforcement Learning

Authors:
Yanxi Chen↗Weijie Shi↗Yuexiang Xie↗Boyi Hu↗Yaliang Li↗Bolin Ding↗Jingren Zhou↗

This work presents a general framework for training large language models (LLMs) to "Connect the Dots" (CoD), a meta-capability required by long-lifecycle agents: as an LLM-based AI agent gets deployed in an environment, it solves a long sequence of tasks while continuously exploring the environment, learning from its own experiences, and iteratively self-updating its context about the environment, thereby achieving progressively better performance on future tasks conditioned on the updated context. Major components of the CoD framework include: (1) algorithm design and infrastructure for end-to-end reinforcement learning (RL) with long rollout sequences interleaving solve-task and update-context episodes; (2) tasks and environments for incentivizing and eliciting the targeted meta-capability in LLMs during training, as well as for faithfully measuring progress during evaluation. We present proof-of-concept implementations of the CoD framework, including a GRPO-style RL algorithm with fine-grained credit assignment, as well as tasks and environments tailored to the targeted meta-capability (rather than domain-specific LLM capabilities or standard task-by-task RL). Empirical results validate the efficacy of end-to-end RL training in the CoD setting, and demonstrate the potential for out-of-distribution generalization – within the training domains, across different domains, and from CoD to Ralph-loop settings – of the elicited meta-capability. Our investigation of CoD connects several lines of prior works, and opens up new opportunities for advancing LLMs and AI agents. To facilitate further research and applications, we release our implementations at \url{https://github.com/agentscope-ai/Trinity-RFT/tree/research/cod/examples/research_cod}.

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10.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Tying the Loop – Tied Expert Layers in Mixture-of-Experts Language Models

Authors:
Martin Jaggi↗

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures efficiently scale Large Language Models (LLMs) by activating only a small fraction of their experts per token, yet the full parameter count - dominated by the expert parameters - must be held in training and inference memory. To address this, we introduce Expert Tying, an architectural modification that shares expert parameters across consecutive transformer layers while preserving independent, layer-wise routing and attention. We evaluate this approach across common, state-of-the-art architectures, including OLMoE, Qwen3, and DeepSeek-style MoEs. Our pretraining experiments demonstrate that tying experts can reduce memory footprint by almost 2x at virtually no degradation in perplexity or downstream quality. By exploiting the parameter redundancy inherent in MoE pathways, our method provides a highly favorable compute-to-memory trade-off, advancing efficient training and scaling of next-generation LLMs.

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11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

HybridCodeAuthorship: A Benchmark Dataset for Line-Level Code Authorship Detection

Authors:
Luke Patterson↗Li Wang↗Adam Faulkner↗

arXiv:2606.12620v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Thanks to the rapid adoption of AI code assistants powered by large language models (LLMs), industry codebases are, increasingly, a hybrid of AI- and human-authored code. For risk management and productivity analysis purposes, it is crucial to enable fine-grained location detection of AI-generated code. To develop algorithms for this task, quality benchmarks are needed to assess performance. However, existing benchmarks tend to comprise academic, LeetCode-style problems and presume a code snippet is either completely human-authored or completely AI-authored, which is not reflective of the diverse intents and styles of industry codebases utilizing AI code assistants. To fill these gaps, we introduce HybridCodeAuthorship, a novel benchmark of Python code files with interleaved human- and AI-authored lines of code to simulate authentic utilization of AI code assistants. In this paper, we first present our dataset construction pipeline, which leverages CodeSearchNet, a massive collection of links to open sourced repositories on GitHub. We then benchmark the performance of two state-of-the-art AI-generated code detection algorithms at both the line- and chunk-level. Experimental results demonstrate that HybridCodeAuthorship is a challenging benchmark with a top-scoring algorithm, AIGCode Detector, obtaining a highest F1 score of 0.48 and 0.56 on chunk-level and line-level code detection tasks, respectively.

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12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Decision-Driven Geosteering Under Uncertainty: A Unified Framework for Sequential Decision Optimization

Authors:
Hibat Errahmen Djecta↗Sergey Alyaev↗Kristian Fossum↗Reidar B. Bratvold↗Ressi Bonti Muhammad↗Apoorv Srivastava↗

arXiv:2606.17331v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Geosteering requires navigating a well trajectory through an unknown geological configuration, while sequentially updating decisions based on indirect measurements acquired during drilling. This work presents an uncertainty-aware geosteering framework that tightly integrates particle filtering for probabilistic subsurface interpretation with value-based reinforcement learning for sequential decision-making. Geological uncertainty ahead of the drill bit is represented explicitly through a particle filter (PF), enabling belief-informed control rather than deterministic trajectory correction. The framework couples PF belief updates with belief-informed decision policies and evaluates three decision-making options that operate under identical uncertainty representations: an interpretable Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) scheme, a Deep Q-learning baseline, and a Dual Deep Reinforcement Learning (Dual DRL) architecture trained with a target Q-network scheme for stability, using a dueling (value/advantage) decomposition for Q-value parameterization. Beyond final placement performance, we assess policy behavior using stability-oriented metrics that quantify steering smoothness over time, providing additional operational insight into how decision policies respond as uncertainty evolves. The framework is integrated with an API for validation within an industrial geosteering simulator under realistic measurement noise and drilling constraints. Using identical geological realizations, operational limits, and reward definitions across methods, the experiments provide a controlled and high-fidelity evaluation of how alternative decision policies behave throughout the drilling process, rather than evaluating performance solely from the final well trajectory.

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13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Mitigating Disparate Impact of Differentially Private Learning through Bounded Adaptive Clipping

Authors:
Linzh Zhao↗Aki Rehn↗Mikko A. Heikkil\"a↗Razane Tajeddine↗Antti Honkela↗

arXiv:2506.01396v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Differential privacy (DP) has become an essential framework for privacy-preserving machine learning. Existing DP learning methods, however, often have disparate impacts on model predictions, e.g., for minority groups. Gradient clipping, which is often used in DP learning, can suppress larger gradients from challenging samples. We show that this problem is amplified by adaptive clipping, which will often shrink the clipping bound to tiny values to match a well-fitting majority, while significantly reducing the accuracy for others. We propose bounded adaptive clipping, which introduces a tunable lower bound to prevent excessive gradient suppression. Our method improves worst-class accuracy by over 10 percentage points on Skewed and Fashion MNIST compared to unbounded adaptive clipping, 7 points compared to Automatic clipping, and 5 points compared to constant clipping. The code is available at https://github.com/TrustworthyMLHelsinki/adaptive-clipping-fairness.

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14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

VibeThinker-3B: Exploring the Frontier of Verifiable Reasoning in Small Language Models

Authors:
Sen Xu↗Shixi Liu↗Wei Wang↗Jixin Min↗Yingwei Dai↗Zhibin Yin↗Yirong Chen↗Xin Zhou↗Junlin Zhang↗

This technical report introduces VibeThinker-3B, a compact dense model with 3B parameters developed to investigate how far verifiable reasoning can be pushed within a strictly small-model regime. Building upon the Spectrum-to-Signal post-training paradigm, we systematically enhance the model through an optimized pipeline that includes curriculum-based supervised fine-tuning, multi-domain reinforcement learning, and offline self-distillation. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that VibeThinker-3B achieves frontier-level performance on highly demanding verifiable tasks. Specifically, it attains a score of 94.3 on AIME26 (improving to 97.1 with claim-level test-time scaling), an 80.2 Pass@1 on LiveCodeBench v6, and exhibits strong out-of-distribution generalization with a 96.1\% acceptance rate on recent unseen LeetCode contests. This effectively places it in the performance band of first-tier reasoning systems, matching or exceeding flagship models that are orders of magnitude larger, such as DeepSeek V3.2, GLM-5, and Gemini 3 Pro. Furthermore, a score of 93.4 on IFEval confirms that this extreme reasoning enhancement does not compromise strict instruction controllability. Extending our previous 1.5B work, these findings motivate the Parametric Compression-Coverage Hypothesis, which views verifiable reasoning as compressible into compact reasoning cores, while open-domain knowledge and general-purpose competence require broad parameter coverage over facts, concepts, and long-tail scenarios. This perspective suggests that compact models are not merely deployment-efficient substitutes, but a complementary path toward frontier-level performance in parameter-dense capability regimes.

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15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Epistemic Bias Injection: Manipulating LLM Opinion via Selective Context Retrieval

Authors:
Hao Wu↗Prateek Saxena↗

arXiv:2512.00804v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: When answering user queries, LLMs often retrieve knowledge from external sources stored in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) databases. These are often populated from unvetted sources, e.g. the open web, and can contain maliciously crafted data. This paper studies attacks that can manipulate the context retrieved by LLMs from such RAG databases. Prior work on such context manipulation primarily injects false or toxic content, which can often be detected by fact-checking or linguistic analysis. A more subtle threat, which we call epistemic bias injection (EBI), is where adversaries inject factually correct yet epistemically biased passages that systematically favor one side of an open-ended issue. Although linguistically coherent and truthful, such adversarial passages effectively crowd out alternative viewpoints during retrieval from the RAG and push LLM outputs towards an attack-desired stance. As a core contribution, we propose a novel characterization of the problem: We give a geometric metric that quantifies stance polarity and epistemic bias. This metric can be computed directly on embeddings of text passages. Leveraging it, we construct EBI attacks and develop a lightweight prototype defense called BiasDef for them. We evaluate them both on a comprehensive benchmark constructed from public question answering datasets. Our results show that: (1) the proposed attack induces significant stance polarity shifts, effectively evading existing retrieval-based sanitization defenses, and (2) BiasDef substantially reduces adversarial retrieval and epistemic bias in LLM's answers. Overall, this demonstrates the new threat as well as the ease of employing epistemic bias metrics for filtering in RAG-enabled LLMs.

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16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Deep Learning-Based Lunar Crater Terrain Relative Navigation

Authors:
Batu Candan↗Simone Servadio↗

arXiv:2606.14776v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate position estimation is crucial for the successful implementation of future lunar landings using autonomous vehicles, especially in dangerous environments with sparse terrain features. In this paper, we propose a terrain relative navigation (TRN) algorithm combining our deep-learning crater detector, which was designed specifically for the NASA Crater Detection Challenge problem, and an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). Our detector analyzes crater features from the monocular images acquired from orbit, and their matches with craters from a global database are identified via a Hungarian assignment approach followed by the consensus-based outliers removal method. The estimated measurements are then used to refine an EKF, where spacecraft pose estimation in the Lunar-Centered Lunar-Fixed (LCLF) frame of reference, augmented with altitude aiding information, constrains radial drift. The simulation results indicate that even if the spacecraft is off from its actual location up to 5 km, TRN could recover from this situation, achieving navigation error reduction to a few hundred meters. It should be noted that in order to maintain crater feature correspondences, it is important to match the image resolution and the scales within the scene to the detector training set distribution.

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17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints

Authors:
Daniel Fraiman↗Ricardo Fraiman↗

arXiv:2605.03289v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Detecting observations from a minority class under severe class imbalance is a central challenge in applications such as fraud detection, medical screening, and industrial quality control. In these settings, each positive prediction triggers a costly follow-up action, an MRI scan, a transaction audit, whose execution is subject to real operational constraints. This paper proposes a formal classification framework under capacity constraints: given a user-defined bound limit $b$ on the proportion of observations that can be labeled as belonging to the minority class, the goal is to find the classifier that maximizes sensitivity on that class. We characterize the optimal classifier under this constraint and establish its equivalence with the classical Bayes classifier under a reweighting of the prior probabilities. We also introduce a capacity-adjusted performance metric $M$ that accounts for the effective detection rate when the capacity constraint is binding. The framework is implemented on top of standard learning methods, k-NN, SVM, random forests, and neural networks, and statistical consistency is established for each. We further show that these methods reduce to post-hoc thresholding when no hyperparameters are oriented toward the capacity-constrained objective, and introduce a capacity-aware support vector machine that exploits the constraint during training and achieves the strongest empirical performance. Experiments on the Taiwanese credit card default dataset confirm that capacity-constrained classifiers substantially outperform both classical approaches and SMOTE under high imbalance regimes. The framework extends naturally to multiclass settings and online environments.

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18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Is It You or Your Environment? A Bayesian Inference Framework for Genomically-Anchored Personalized Physiological Interpretation

Authors:
Aruna Dey↗Suraj Biswas↗

arXiv:2606.13556v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Personalized health AI systems face a fundamental cold-start problem: machine learning models for physiological interpretation require weeks of individual behavioral data before they can distinguish constitutional variation from environmentally driven deviation. We propose a solution grounded in causal inference and Bayesian prior design. An individual's genomic profile serves as an exogenous genetic anchor – a domain-informed, personalized prior that is fixed at conception, immune to reverse causation, and available before a single behavioral observation is collected. The anchor initializes a Bayesian belief state over an individual's physiological set point G-hat = mu + sum(beta_i * g_i), where beta_i are GWAS-derived effect sizes and g_i are risk-allele counts. Each incoming physiological measurement P produces a non-constitutional deviation delta = P - G-hat that separates the signal attributable to environment and state from the constitutionally fixed baseline. As behavioral data accrue, the prior decays according to G-hat_t = w(t)*G-hat_genomic + [1-w(t)]*P-bar_t, transitioning from genome-dominated to empirical-baseline-dominated inference. The same observed HRV of 55 ms generates a suppression hypothesis for a person whose prior predicts 80 ms, and an enhancement hypothesis for a person whose prior predicts 30 ms – a reversal impossible without a personalized anchor. We develop this architecture across six physiological domains, grading genomic priors by evidence strength, distinguishing robustly replicated anchors (FTO, FADS1/2, FKBP5) from contested candidate genes (SLC6A4, MAOA, DRD2). We address the inference boundary between association, Mendelian randomization, and individual token causation, and define four constraints for deployment: evidence-graded priors, dynamic decay, ancestry-matched effect sizes, and attribution rather than deterministic output.

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19.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-25

Higher moments of intrinsic volumes of random beta-prime polytopes

Authors:
Ferenc Fodor↗Bal\'azs Gr\"unfelder↗P\'eter Kevei↗

arXiv:2603.22224v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We consider beta-prime polytopes, i.e., the convex hulls of iid random points chosen according to beta-prime distributions in $\mathbb{R}^d$. After suitable scaling, beta-prime polytopes converge in distribution to the convex hulls of Poisson point processes with power-law intensity functions. We prove moment convergence for the volume and all intrinsic volumes. Beta-prime polytopes are the push-forwards of spherical random polytopes on the upper open half-sphere of the unit sphere $S^d\subset \mathbb{R}^{d+1}$. We prove convergence of moments of the spherical volume difference of the half-sphere and the spherical random polytopes.

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20.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

On McDiarmid's Inequality under Dependence via Approximate Tensorization of Entropy

Authors:
Valentin Roth↗

arXiv:2606.12720v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We argue that dependent versions of McDiarmid's inequality are a useful but underutilized tool in mathematical statistics, learning theory and theoretical computer science. To make this point, we first highlight that approximate tensorization of entropy (ATE) implies McDiarmid's via the Entropy Method. Second, we derive McDiarmid's inequality for non-isotropic Gaussian random vectors $X \sim \mathcal N(\mu, \Sigma)$ through ATE with a constant of the order of the condition number of $\Sigma$. We both independently obtain this ATE through a simple application of stochastic localization and also discuss how a more general ATE for the Gibbs sampler due to Ascolani et al., 2026 generalizes McDiarmid's-like concentration to strongly log-concave and log-smooth probability measures. We then apply the resulting concentration inequalities to resolve a question on the concentration of $\operatorname{sign}(X)$ posed by Simone Bombari, investigate Erdős-Rényi graphs under dependence and prove a Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz-type inequality for observations from a joint measure fulfilling ATE and continuous marginal CDFs. For the class of strongly log-concave and log-smooth measures, this result improves upon a prior Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz-type inequality for non-i.i.d. observations due to Bobkov and Götze, 2010, by establishing the expected $1/\sqrt{n}$-rate of convergence under weak dependence instead of $n^{-1/3}$.

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21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Filtered Conformal Ellipsoids for Graph-Native Time Series

Authors:
Yannick Limmer↗

arXiv:2606.17014v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Joint prediction sets for multivariate time series should control a single event while adapting to cross-coordinate dependence. We study filtered conformal ellipsoids: a frozen state-space filter emits a one-step predictive mean and covariance, and split-conformal calibration is applied to the resulting Mahalanobis scores. The filter is used to choose the ellipsoid shape; conformal calibration chooses the scalar radius, so the construction benefits from a learned predictive covariance without relying on Gaussian tail probabilities for coverage. The main difficulty is that filtered scores are dependent and learned recurrent filters need not contract in their raw hidden state; we therefore analyse contraction in an observable predictive-law quotient that identifies hidden states producing the same future sequence of emitted Gaussian laws. Under a stable Bayes Gaussian-projection filter, covariance bounds, and a finite-horizon observability Fisher condition, small excess Gaussian negative log-likelihood implies contraction of the learned emitted laws. Combined with a threshold-autocovariance envelope this yields a Chebyshev-type approximate coverage bound for filtered split-conformal prediction under dependence; a sharper Bernstein-type bound requires an additional geometric-mixing concentration assumption. Under Gaussian oracle realisability we also obtain a near-oracle log-volume comparison within the class of conditionally valid Gaussian ellipsoid rules. We instantiate the framework with a GCN-GRU filter with diagonal-plus-low-rank covariance. On moderate-size graph-native traffic benchmarks (METRLA-$20$ and PEMSBAY-$50$), the learned filter gives sharper at-target ellipsoids than static-covariance and non-filter baselines; at full-graph scale and on non-graph-native datasets, factor and copula baselines can be stronger.

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22.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

TriViewBench: Controlled Complexity Scaling for Multi-View Structural Reasoning in MLLMs

Authors:
Yu-Yang Chen↗Lan-Zhe Guo↗

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate strong performance on standard visual question answering benchmarks, yet their scalability under controlled structural complexity remains poorly understood. We introduce TriViewBench, a controlled three-view visual reasoning benchmark constructed from synthetic 3D scenes with explicitly parameterized object count and occlusion. The benchmark contains 1,923 scenes and over 14K Question-Answer (QA) pairs organized into four complexity levels and three reasoning categories: Local Decision, Object Counting, and Global Recovery. We evaluate 18 open- and closed-source MLLMs under a unified prompting protocol. All 18 models exhibit an identical capability hierarchy without exception (Local Decision > Object Counting > Global Recovery), and performance degrades monotonically with complexity: Local Decision tasks decline modestly (12.11% relative drop), while Object Counting degrades substantially (59.14%) and Global Recovery collapses severely (80.02%). Error analysis on Object Counting reveals two mechanistically independent failure modes: single-view tasks are dominated by undercounting due to occlusion blindness, whereas the multi-view task reverses to overcounting due to cross-view identity confusion. Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting yields near-zero overall benefit ($\Delta = -0.16\%$) and its effect on Global Recovery is strongly capability-gated, suggesting that the bottleneck lies in cross-view spatial representation rather than reasoning strategy. These findings reveal fundamental scalability limitations in current MLLMs and position TriViewBench as a controlled diagnostic framework for analyzing structural reasoning failures.

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23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

Ranking-optimized survival models can underperform fixed-horizon clinical prediction: a SUPPORT2 reanalysis of machine learning, attending-physician judgment, and the original SUPPORT model at 60- and 180-day mortality

Authors:
Truong↗Q. H↗Hoang↗D. C↗Luu↗D. T↗

Machine-learning survival models are increasingly proposed for intensive-care mortality prediction and are almost always selected and reported using the concordance index, a ranking metric averaged over follow-up. Yet most bedside decisions hinge on a probability at a specific time, such as 60- or 180-day mortality. We asked whether ranking-optimized models remain competitive at fixed clinical horizons against two reference points clinicians actually rely on: unaided attending-physician judgment and the original 1995 SUPPORT logistic model. Reanalyzing the SUPPORT2 cohort (9,105 critically ill adults from five United States centers, 1989-1994) under a stratified 70/15/15 split, we compared a gradient-boosted survival model, the physician's recorded prognosis, and the 1995 model at 60 and 180 days, alongside several alternative learners. The survival model achieved competitive ranking concordance (0.705) yet underperformed both comparators at fixed horizons: at 60 days its area under the ROC curve was 0.750, against 0.808 for physicians on the matched sample and 0.827 for the 1995 model, a gap that held across eight independent data splits and remained statistically reliable after multiplicity correction. The shortfall was not miscalibration, since post-hoc recalibration left discrimination unchanged, nor limited capacity, since neural networks, a deep ranking model, and two timepoint-aware discrete-time models also failed to close it; replacing the ranking objective with timepoint-matched binary training recovered roughly half the gap, pointing to an objective-horizon mismatch. Discrimination was equitable across sex, race, and age, but leave-one-disease-out validation exposed severe failure for disease groups absent from training, and the physician advantage was conditional on a physician electing to provide an estimate. We recommend reporting timepoint-specific discrimination alongside concordance, timepoint-matched training when fixed-horizon predictions drive care, leave-one-subgroup validation, and distribution-free prediction intervals to support selective deployment.

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24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

A Decision-Theoretic View of Test-Time Training: When, How Far, and Which Directions to Adapt

Authors:
Tomoya Wakayama↗

arXiv:2606.15569v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Test-time training (TTT) adapts a pretrained model to each prompt via parameter updates, improving accuracy under pretraining-to-test distribution shifts. Yet, its performance often suffers from instability and sensitivity to hyperparameters such as update steps and subspace. We explain this behavior through a decision-theoretic lens, treating TTT as implicit Bayesian inference in the kernel regime. Under a Gaussian process benchmark, we show that TTT reduces prediction error when updates are spectrally matched to the prompt's signal-to-noise ratio and aligned with query-relevant eigen-directions. This perspective underpins the following results: (1) we show when fixed update steps and subspaces fail under distribution shifts, motivating adaptive strategies; (2) we prove that selecting update steps via prompt evidence admits a PAC-Bayes guarantee against overfitting; and (3) we characterize the Bayes-optimal update subspace under a linear-Gaussian correction model, yielding a scoring rule for selecting Transformer blocks and heads. Our theory helps explain the empirical instability of TTT, taking a step toward principled guidance for when, how far, and which directions to adapt.

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25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Self-Recognition Finetuning can Prevent and Reverse Emergent Misalignment

Authors:
Arush Tagade↗Shaoheng Zhou↗Jiaxin Wen↗Shi Feng↗

Emergent misalignment (EM) has been linked to the activation of misaligned persona vectors and evil character traits, suggesting that EM operates through disruption of the model's aligned character rather than direct learning of harmful content. Motivated by this connection, we study self-generated text recognition (SGTR) finetuning as a character-targeted intervention that is distinct from existing in-training defenses. We conduct two-stage finetuning experiments across three models (GPT-4.1, Qwen2.5-32B-Instruct, Seed-OSS-36B-Instruct) and multiple EM datasets to compare SGTR finetuning against benign finetuning baselines (correct domain-specific data, general knowledge, and word counting) to find it an effective defense in both reversal and prevention settings. We find that all interventions produce comparable EM reversal, but only when restoring capabilities that EM had degraded. For prevention, only SGTR finetuning consistently reduces misalignment without exacerbating any individual metric, suggesting that character fortification specifically drives prevention. We provide further evidence for EM's relation to the LLM's default character by showing that EM finetuning induces diversity into the LLM's identity self-reports, artificially corrupting self-recognition exacerbates misalignment caused by EM finetuning, and that removing the model's identity-bearing system prompt substantially reduces the effect of EM finetuning. Together, these findings reframe EM not as the adoption of a coherent misaligned persona but as the destabilization of aligned character.

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