Academic Intelligence · Curated Daily

Explore the Frontier of Global Academia

AcademicHub aggregates real-time literature from top journals and preprint platforms. Build your personal research radar and let large language models compile cross-disciplinary analysis briefings automatically.

01.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-19

A Cycle Walk for Sampling Measures on Spanning Forests for Redistricting

arXiv:2509.08629v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce the Cycle Walk, a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method for sampling distributions on balanced graph partitions, motivated by applications in political redistricting. The method operates on spanning forests and combines two types of updates: local "cycle" moves within districts and global moves that exchange population between adjacent districts while preserving balance constraints. This construction enables efficient Metropolis–Hastings correction while allowing proposals at multiple spatial scales. We show that the Cycle Walk naturally interpolates between existing approaches based on local updates and a class of global update methods derived from recombination (RECOM). Through a range of numerical experiments on synthetic graphs and real-world precinct data, we demonstrate that the Cycle Walk exhibits improved empirical convergence diagnostics for distributions that place weaker weight on spanning-tree counts, a regime that is challenging for existing methods. In particular, the algorithm remains effective when incorporating alternative compactness measures that more closely reflect policy-relevant criteria. These results suggest that the Cycle Walk provides a flexible and computationally efficient framework for sampling from a broader class of redistricting distributions than previously accessible with MCMC techniques.

02.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Structural variant discovery and diagnostic impact in rare diseases from short-read and long-read sequencing

Rare diseases collectively affect 1 in 10 individuals, yet current genetic testing fails to identify a causal variant for most cases. At present, cytogenetic methods and/or sequencing approaches such as exome (ES) or short-read genome sequencing (srGS) represent the state-of-the-art for comprehensive clinical discovery of sequence and structural variants (SVs), including copy number variants, balanced SVs, complex SVs, and tandem repeats (TRs). Recently, long-read genome sequencing (lrGS), coupled with multiomics data, has presented great promise to resolve variation in genomic regions recalcitrant to characterization by srGS such as highly repetitive simple repeat sequences and segmental duplications. However, there are few guidelines to enable clinical interpretation of genetic variation in these highly repetitive genomic regions, and the enthusiasm of the field in adopting lrGS has made it difficult to assess the true added diagnostic yield of this technology due to widely variable and inconsistently applied analytic pipelines and variable degrees of pre-screening by ES or srGS. Here, we investigated the contribution of SVs to rare diseases using srGS as a front-line strategy when paired with highly sensitive SV discovery and evaluate the added diagnostic yield of incorporating lrGS for a subset of cases. Our srGS analysis encompassed 1,462 families (3,450 individuals) recruited through the Broad Institute Center for Mendelian Genetics and the Genomics Research to Elucidate the Genetics of Rare Diseases (GREGoR) programs. Diagnostic SVs were identified in 5.4% of cases (79/1,462), of which 80% were uniquely detectable by srGS compared to standard cytogenetic techniques. For 96 families (including 10 families with a heterozygous variant observed in a known recessive gene of clinical relevance), we performed lrGS with methylation profiling, as well as long-read transcriptomic analyses in a subset of 20 trios. Analyses with lrGS yielded over 25,000 SVs per genome, 63% of which were not captured by srGS, along with an additional ~200 rare SNV/indels per genome not previously captured and 12 differentially methylated regions per genome. Among these, we identified only one diagnostic variant not interpreted by srGS, an apparently mosaic de novo SNV in CASK that was absent in the srGS callset due to allelic imbalance. No new diagnoses were supported by long-read transcriptomics or episignatures. In this well characterized rare disease cohort, the added diagnostic yield was thus 1.04% (1/96 families). Following a systematic literature review of prior lrGS studies, we find that most reported diagnoses were detectable by srGS and that our added diagnostic yield is consistent with those prior studies. These studies emphasize the significant impact of comprehensive SV discovery in rare disease cases and further demonstrate the power for increased discovery of novel genomic variation and episignatures from lrGS. Nonetheless, they also serve to temper expectations of dramatic diagnostic advances in rare disease patients until there is more extensive annotation of the functional and clinical impact of all coding and noncoding variation uniquely accessible to lrGS with extensive reference databases spanning highly repetitive genomic sequencing that could be enabled by this transformative technology.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

ViPER: Vision-based Packing-Aware Encoder for Robust Malware Detection

Visualization-based malware detection maps raw binary bytes to grayscale images and applies learned visual classifiers, providing an evasion-resistant and disassembly-free alternative to conventional analysis pipelines. However, executable packing remains a critical failure mode: packed binaries produce high-entropy images that obscure the structural patterns these models rely on. Because packing is also prevalent in benign software (e.g., for compression or copy protection), packing state alone is not a reliable indicator of maliciousness, and existing approaches do not address this challenge within a unified supervised framework. We present ViPER, a Vision-based Packing-Aware Encoder for Robust malware detection. ViPER builds on a LoRA-adapted ViT-B/14 backbone with a dual-head architecture that jointly learns malware classification and packing detection. A packing-aware gating mechanism conditions malware predictions on the inferred packing state, enabling distinct decision boundaries for packed and unpacked inputs. To address packing label skew during training, we employ frequency-weighted losses with stratified sampling over joint class-packing strata. Evaluated on 200,000 Windows PE byteplot images, ViPER achieves a balanced accuracy of 0.8521, ROC-AUC of 0.9260, and AUPR of 0.9279, outperforming representative state-of-the-art baselines across all primary metrics, while attaining a packing detection AUC of 0.9949.

04.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Ultrastrongly coupled open systems and fine grained time

arXiv:2606.16634v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the dynamics of a d-level quantum system coupled to a bosonic reservoir when the coupling constant is large. It is known that in the limit of infinite coupling strength, the system undergoes an instantaneous nonselective measurement, resulting in the immediate decoherence in the measurement basis, followed by a unitary Zeno dynamics. Here we resolve this dynamical process by introducing a fine grained scaling regime of short times proportional to the inverse coupling. We provide a rigorous derivation of the open system dynamics in this regime of ultrastrong coupling and demonstrate how decoherence unfolds continuously in the new time scale. We show that Markovian dynamics which are not given by semigroups arise naturally, in contrast to what happens in the weak coupling theory.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

TMR-GGNN: Credit Card Fraud Detection based on Time-Aware Multi-Relational Guided Graph Neural Network

arXiv:2606.18444v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In recent years, credit card fraud detection has faced significant challenges due to highly imbalanced data, evolving fraud patterns, and complex relational structures among transaction entities. To address these issues, this research proposes a novel framework called Timeaware Multi Relational Guided Graph Neural Network (TMR GGNN). Particularly, the proposed TMR GGNN extends the encoder decoder Graph Neural Network GNN architecture by modeling heterogeneous interactions across customers, merchants, devices, and IPs over temporal windows. Subsequently, the proposed TMR GGNN approach constructs a dynamic, multi relational graph and incorporates a time aware relational attention mechanism within the encoder to adaptively weigh the transaction relevance based on temporal proximity and semantic context. Consequently, the decoder employs a contrastive learning module to distinguish between real and synthesized transaction patterns, while improving the models generalization of rare fraud cases. Additionally, to effectively manage severe class imbalances and emphasize discriminative learning, a composite loss function combining Information Noise Contrastive Estimation (InfoNCE) based contrastive loss with Focal Loss is introduced. This integration assists in improving fraud identification while mitigating false negatives.

06.
Nature Medicine 2026-06-12

The Hong Kong Genome Project is a flagship initiative for precision medicine in Chinese populations

Authors: Unknown Author

The Hong Kong Genome Project established a genome sequencing database that provides improved diagnoses for patients and more efficient, population-tailored carrier status screening. Actionable pharmacogenomic variants were identified in almost all participants, informing drug prescriptions. This work establishes a genomic resource and a transferable model for equitable precision medicine in underrepresented populations worldwide.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Why Pool When You Can Flow? Active Learning with GFlowNets

arXiv:2509.00704v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The scalability of pool-based active learning is limited by the computational cost of evaluating large unlabeled datasets, a challenge that is particularly acute in virtual screening for drug discovery. While active learning strategies such as Bayesian Active Learning by Disagreement (BALD) prioritize informative samples, it remains computationally intensive when scaled to libraries containing billions samples. In this work, we introduce BALD-GFlowNet, a generative active learning framework that circumvents this issue. Our method leverages Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) to directly sample objects in proportion to the BALD reward. By replacing traditional pool-based acquisition with generative sampling, BALD-GFlowNet achieves scalability that is independent of the size of the unlabeled pool. In our virtual screening experiment, we show that BALD-GFlowNet achieves a performance comparable to that of standard BALD baseline while generating more structurally diverse molecules, offering a promising direction for efficient and scalable molecular discovery.

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

REDI-Match: Rotation-Equivariant Distillation for Efficient and Robust Dense Matching

Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) have significantly advanced dense feature matching, yet severe in-plane rotation remains a critical challenge. Existing solutions face a fundamental dilemma: data-driven methods require inefficient parameter scaling to implicitly learn rotations, whereas strictly equivariant networks lack the semantic capacity of modern VFMs. Consequently, current frameworks typically freeze VFMs and shift the entire burden of rotation generalization to the downstream decoder. To break this architectural bottleneck, we propose REDI-Match, an efficient framework driven by a novel Rotation-Equivariant Distillation (REDI) paradigm. Instead of relying on rotation data augmentation to establish rotational correspondences, REDI distills the non-equivariant semantic representations of a VFM into a lightweight, strictly rotation-equivariant encoder, leveraging an equivariant geometric architecture to constrain robust high-dimensional semantics. To fully exploit these features, we equip the decoder with an entropy-driven spatial alignment module. By evaluating discrete rotation hypotheses, this mechanism explicitly locks onto the canonical coordinate system, eliminating global ambiguity before continuous refinement. Extensive experiments demonstrate that REDI-Match establishes a new state-of-the-art (SOTA) across multiple benchmarks. Notably, it achieves a 13.89% absolute pose accuracy improvement on the highly challenging SatAst dataset while operating 1.9x faster than the current SOTA (RoMa v2), enabling real-time inference (~41 FPS) on a single RTX 4090 GPU. Code: https://github.com/YinjiGe/REDI-Match.

09.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Probabilities

arXiv:2601.18853v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Probabilities is the English translation of the book Probabilités Tome 1 and Tome 2. The mathematic content is authored by Prof. Jean-Yves Ouvrard. The English version has been done by his eldest son Dr. Xavier Ouvrard. This probability theory book covers not only an introduction to this field, but also advanced concepts based on measure theory. The first part introduces the fundamentals of probability theory across 7 chapters, targeting bachelor level, including event algebras, random variables, independence, conditional probabilities, moments of discrete and continuous random variables, generating functions, and limit theorems. The second part contains 10 chapters and corresponds to master level. Following a brief introduction to measure theory, this part develops more advanced topics: probability measures and their complements, distributions and moments of random variables, modes of convergence, laws of large numbers, conditional expectation, Fourier transforms and characteristic functions, Gaussian random variables, convergence of measures, convergence in distribution, discrete-time stochastic processes, martingales, and Markov chains. The reader's work is greatly facilitated by the inclusion, in every chapter, of numerous exercises, all accompanied by detailed solutions that often provide substantial extensions to the theoretical material.

10.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Geometric Algebra Quantum Gate Decomposition

arXiv:2606.12480v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantum gates are usually described through matrix and tensor-product formalisms that often obscure their geometric structure. In this work, we formulate the Pauli and Clifford groups within the complex Geometric Algebra (GA) framework. We show that the Pauli group is naturally identified with the group of blades up to a global phase, thereby providing a geometric interpretation of Pauli operators and their commutation relations in terms of oriented subspaces. We further prove that Clifford operators are generated by products of {\pi}/4-Pauli rotors and introduce a greedy Pauli rotor decomposition algorithm whose empirical behavior suggests unexpectedly compact decompositions for Clifford operators. Finally, we show that Clifford+T universality admits a natural geometric interpretation through {\pi}/8-rotors within this framework.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

APCyc: Property-Informed Design of Cyclic Peptides via Automated Cyclization

arXiv:2606.12991v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Cyclic peptides represent a promising class of therapeutic compounds in modern drug discovery, often offering improved stability and binding affinity. However, the de novo design of cyclic peptides remains challenging because methods must identify pocket-adaptive cyclization patterns and linkage sites while simultaneously controlling drug-relevant properties. This challenge is particularly pronounced for recent generative models trained predominantly on linear peptide data, which may fail to capture cyclization-specific constraints. To address the limitation, we introduce APCyc, a target-aware de novo cyclic peptide generation framework that explicitly models cyclization and jointly optimizes multiple essential physicochemical properties. By using an expanded residue vocabulary and explicitly encoding cyclization-site and linkage-type information, APCyc learns cyclization-aware representations and leverages Bayesian posterior guidance to steer sampling toward cyclic peptides satisfying multiple property objectives. Experimental results demonstrate that our model learns target-dependent cyclization preferences, and enables effective and controllable multi-property optimization for cyclic peptide design. The source code of this paper is available at https://github.com/HKUSTGZ-ML4Health-Lab/APCyc.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Bounded Difference Concentration for Infinitely Exchangeable Sequences with Applications to AI Benchmark Uncertainty

arXiv:2606.17426v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We consider the concentration properties of functions of infinitely exchangeable random variables. By conditioning on the de Finetti directing measure, we show that the deviation of any function with bounded-difference constants $c_1, \dots, c_n$ decomposes into a conditional sampling fluctuation and a latent mixture fluctuation. When this latent mixture is $\sigma_{\mathrm{mix}}^2$-subgaussian, we establish a concentration inequality with an effective variance proxy of $\frac{1}{4}\sum_i c_i^2 + \sigma_{\mathrm{mix}}^2$. Crucially, we demonstrate that for zero-sum linear contrasts, such as the difference between a subsample mean and a full population mean, the latent mixture term cancels exactly. This cancellation yields a tight, mixture-free Hoeffding-type bound that provides a direct de Finetti mechanism for the infinite-extendibility limit of recent finite-exchangeable concentration results. We apply this framework to quantify uncertainty in composite AI benchmarks, such as MMLU, where question items naturally exhibit exchangeable dependence across domains. Our results provide both a domain-stratified hierarchical model for bounding the uncertainty of accuracy scores, and a distribution-free, cost-saving statistical guarantee for accurately estimating full benchmark scores from random subsets.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

X-Tokenizer: A Multimodal Action Tokenizer for Vision-Language-Action Pretraining

Modern Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models must bridge pretrained vision-language reasoning and precise continuous robot control. Existing action tokenizers discretize actions primarily for reconstruction, producing codes that preserve motion geometry but provide only weak semantic supervision to the backbone. We therefore formulate action tokenization not as mere compression, but as semantic interface learning between multimodal reasoning and executable control. To this end, we introduce X-Tokenizer, a lightweight encoder-Semantic Residual Quantization (SRQ)-decoder architecture that provides a shared action interface across diverse robotic arm embodiments. Its key component, SRQ, imposes an asymmetric structure on residual vector quantization: the first level is trained with Masked Action Modeling (MAM) to form a discrete action language that captures coarse motion intent, while deeper levels remain reconstruction-oriented residuals that preserve fine-grained details. To further align action tokens with multimodal semantics, X-Tokenizer is pretrained with contrastive alignment to the representation space of a pretrained foundation model and with next-frame vision-language feature prediction. Pretrained on 2.4M trajectories (2.0B action frames), a single frozen X-Tokenizer plugs into a mixed discrete-continuous VLA as a representation-shaping supervision signal. X-Tokenizer achieves top real-world aggregate and strong RoboTwin 2.0 simulation results. Outperforming FAST in multimodal grounding (+13.5%) and long-horizon tasks (+8.25), it shows that action tokenizers serve as semantic interfaces for VLA pretraining beyond mere action compression.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Speaker Verification with Speech-Aware LLMs: Evaluation and Augmentation

arXiv:2603.10827v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Speech-aware large language models (LLMs) can accept speech inputs, yet their training objectives largely emphasize linguistic content or specific fields such as emotions or the speaker's gender, leaving it unclear whether they encode speaker identity. First, we propose a model-agnostic scoring protocol that produces continuous verification scores for both API-only and open-weight models, using confidence scores or log-likelihood ratios from the Yes/No token probabilities. Using this protocol, we benchmark recent speech-aware LLMs and observe weak speaker discrimination (EERs above 20% on VoxCeleb1). Second, we introduce a lightweight augmentation that equips an LLM with ASV capability by injecting frozen ECAPA-TDNN speaker embeddings through a learned projection and training only LoRA adapters. On TinyLLaMA-1.1B, the resulting ECAPA-LLM achieves 1.03% EER on VoxCeleb1-E, approaching a dedicated speaker verification system while preserving a natural-language interface.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

SorryDB: Can AI Provers Complete Real-World Lean Theorems?

arXiv:2603.02668v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present SorryDB, a dynamically-updating benchmark of open Lean tasks drawn from 78 real world formalization projects on GitHub. Unlike existing static benchmarks, often composed of competition problems, hillclimbing the SorryDB benchmark will yield tools that are aligned to the community needs, more usable by mathematicians, and more capable of understanding complex dependencies. Moreover, by providing a continuously updated stream of tasks, SorryDB mitigates test-set contamination and offers a robust metric for an agent's ability to contribute to novel formal mathematics projects. We evaluate a collection of approaches, including generalist large language models, agentic approaches, and specialized symbolic provers, over a selected snapshot of 1000 tasks from SorryDB. We show that current approaches are complementary: even though an agentic approach based on Gemini Flash is the most performant, it is not strictly better than other off-the-shelf large-language models, specialized provers, or even a curated list of Lean tactics.

16.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-24

A new cancer progression model: From synthetic tumors to real data and back

by Daniela Volpatto, Sandro Gepiro Contaldo, Simone Pernice, Marco Beccuti, Francesca Cordero, Roberta Sirovich Intratumor heterogeneity (ITH) arises from the combined effects of genetic alterations, clonal interactions, and environmental constraints, and plays a central role in therapeutic resistance and disease progression. While ITH has been extensively documented in empirical tumor data, the scientific debate regarding the biological mechanisms underlying this heterogeneity remains complex, highlighting the need for cancer evolution models that are sufficiently flexible and sophisticated to reproduce the observed behaviors and to give insights on the unobserved ones. Here, we present a stochastic modelling framework for tumor evolution that integrates genotypic inheritance with phenotype driven functional traits and resource mediated competition. Mutational events are associated with functional capabilities such as altered proliferation, increased mutation rates, limit evasion potential or enhanced control over shared resources, allowing multiple genotypes to converge on similar phenotypes. The model explicitly tracks subclonal lineages while incorporating environmental constraints that modulate growth and competition. The framework is defined through a mathematically rigorous construction and is accompanied by an efficient simulation algorithm. To facilitate exploration and reproducibility, we provide an open-source graphical user interface that allows users to configure model parameters, run simulations, and inspect clonal genealogies and population dynamics without requiring direct interaction with the underlying code. Using this model, we illustrate how ecological feedbacks can shape clonal dynamics over time, supporting an interpretation in which early tumor growth is dominated by stochastic expansion, while later evolution increasingly reflects selection for traits that alleviate environmental constraints. Rather than constituting a new evolutionary paradigm, this behaviour demonstrates how well-documented biological patterns can emerge naturally from a unified stochastic and ecological description. Overall, our approach offers a flexible and extensible platform for investigating how chance, functional traits, and environmental interactions jointly govern tumor heterogeneity.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Conflict-Aware Retriever Editing for Knowledge Injection Attacks on LLM-Based RAG Systems

arXiv:2606.18310v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Injecting malicious knowledge into retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems can manipulate retrieved evidence and mislead downstream generation, posing a serious security threat for AI applications. Existing RAG injection attacks mainly rely on manipulating external knowledge bases, such as crafting malicious corpus. However, the synthetic text crafted by such data-centric methods could be detectable, leading to the failure of attacks. Beyond corpus manipulation, open-source retrievers are increasingly exposing RAG systems to model-centric attacks. In this paper, we propose conflict-aware retriever editing, i.e., CAREATTACK, a model-centric retriever attack framework for malicious knowledge injection in RAG. Specifically, CAREATTACK consists two stages of conflict-aware retriever editing and attack-preserving anchor repair. Conflict-aware retriever editing adapts efficient closed-form parameter editing to the dense retrieval model, promoting malicious knowledge above benign competing passages and resolving potential parameter conflicts through graph-based conflict detection and parameter editing projection. Then, attack-preserving anchor repair performs lightweight calibration on the edited retriever to further eliminate the impact on non-target prompts while preserving the attack effectiveness for target prompts. We instantiate CAREATTACK on Qwen3-Embedding-0.6B and BGE-M3, and conduct evaluation on three benchmark datasets. Experimental results demonstrate our method substantially promote malicious passages into the retrieved knowledge of RAG systems and can perform attacks for batches of target prompts and passages, given the access of retrieval model parameters. Since most RAG systems are built upon open-source retrieval models, this work reveals a practical attack surface in RAG systems. Codes are public accessible at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CareAttack-3F1C.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Learning Visually Interpretable Oscillator Networks for Soft Continuum Robots from Video

Learning soft continuum robot (SCR) dynamics from video offers flexibility but existing methods lack interpretability or rely on prior assumptions. Model-based approaches require prior knowledge and manual design. We bridge this gap by introducing: (1) The Attention Broadcast Decoder (ABCD), a plug-and-play module for autoencoder-based latent dynamics learning that generates pixel-accurate attention maps localizing each latent dimension's contribution while filtering static backgrounds, enabling visual interpretability via spatially grounded latents and on-image overlays. (2) Visual Oscillator Networks (VONs), a 2D latent oscillator network coupled to ABCD attention maps for on-image visualization of learned masses, coupling stiffness, and forces, thereby enabling mechanical interpretability. We validate our approach on single- and double-segment SCRs, demonstrating that ABCD-based models significantly improve multi-step prediction accuracy with 5.8x error reduction for Koopman operators and 3.5x for oscillator networks on a two-segment robot. VONs autonomously discover a chain structure of oscillators. This fully data-driven approach yields compact, mechanically interpretable models with potential relevance for future control applications.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Metriplectic Conditional Flow Matching for Dissipative Dynamics

arXiv:2509.19526v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Metriplectic conditional flow matching (MCFM) learns dissipative dynamics without violating first principles. Neural surrogates often inject energy and destabilize long-horizon rollouts; MCFM instead builds the conservative-dissipative split into both the vector field and a structure preserving sampler. MCFM trains via conditional flow matching on short transitions, avoiding long rollout adjoints. In inference, a Strang-prox scheme alternates a symplectic update with a proximal metric step, ensuring discrete energy decay; an optional projection enforces strict decay when a trusted energy is available. We provide continuous and discrete time guarantees linking this parameterization and sampler to conservation, monotonic dissipation, and stable rollouts. On a controlled mechanical benchmark, MCFM yields phase portraits closer to ground truth and markedly fewer energy-increase and positive energy rate events than an equally expressive unconstrained neural flow, while matching terminal distributional fit.

20.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Scalar Quantum Fields: Theory Space and its Geometry

arXiv:2606.12580v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Scalar fields provide perhaps the simplest playground in which to develop our understanding of quantum field theory. In this lecture, we consider what it means to write down a scalar quantum field theory and how we can give geometrical interpretations to the space of such theories: the theory space.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Valid Inference with Synthetic Data via Task Exchangeability

arXiv:2606.13629v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: There is a proliferation of work arguing for the use of synthetic data in scientific research. For example, social scientists are arguing for the use of LLM-generated "silicon samples" in pilot studies; AI evaluations increasingly rely on "LLM-as-a-judge" outputs; and proteomics research is accelerated by generative models that produce synthetic protein structures. These developments raise an intriguing possibility: synthetic data may help researchers ask more questions, run more studies, and accelerate discovery. But they also raise a fundamental concern: synthetic data can be biased, noisy, and misspecified. In this work, we propose statistical principles for using synthetic data in scientific research with provable validity guarantees. The key insight is a new technical condition that we call task exchangeability. Informally, this is a requirement that the researcher can identify historical tasks, for which real data is available, such that their current task of interest is exchangeable with the historical tasks in an appropriate mathematical sense. We develop methods for valid inference under task exchangeability, together with extensions that provide guarantees even beyond exchangeability. We demonstrate the framework on public opinion surveys with silicon samples and AI evaluation with autoraters.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Bulk-Calibrated Credal Ambiguity Sets: Fast, Tractable Decision Making under Out-of-Sample Contamination

arXiv:2601.21324v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Distributionally robust optimisation (DRO) minimises the worst-case expected loss over an ambiguity set that can capture distributional shifts in out-of-sample environments. While Huber (linear-vacuous) contamination is a classical minimal-assumption model for an $\varepsilon$-fraction of arbitrary perturbations, including it in an ambiguity set can make the worst-case risk infinite and the DRO objective vacuous unless one imposes strong boundedness or support assumptions. We address these challenges by introducing bulk-calibrated credal ambiguity sets: we learn a high-mass bulk set from data while considering contamination inside the bulk and bounding the remaining tail contribution separately. This leads to a closed-form, finite $\mathrm{mean}+\sup$ robust objective and tractable linear or second-order cone programs for common losses and bulk geometries. Through this framework, we highlight and exploit the equivalence between the imprecise probability (IP) notion of upper expectation and the worst-case risk, demonstrating how IP credal sets translate into DRO objectives with interpretable tolerance levels. Experiments on heavy-tailed inventory control, geographically shifted house-price regression, and demographically shifted text classification show competitive robustness-accuracy trade-offs and efficient optimisation times, using Bayesian, frequentist, or empirical reference distributions.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Existence Precedes Value: Joint Modeling of Observational Existence and Evolving States in Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606.13571v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Real-world time series are often highly incomplete and irregular due to sensor dormancy, transmission delays, and event-driven sampling, making reliable forecasting fundamentally challenging. Existing methods have evolved from impute-then-forecast pipelines to continuous-time models such as Neural ODEs and continuous-time graph networks. While these approaches improve the modeling of historical irregularity, they still rely on an implicit oracle assumption at inference time: the timestamps of future valid observations are presumed to be known in advance. This assumption limits practical relevance, since in many real systems the more fundamental question is not only what the future value will be, but also whether a valid observation will occur at all. In this paper, we propose Timeflies, a unified framework that reformulates forecasting as a joint problem of future observability inference and value estimation. To explicitly model the interaction between observation dynamics and state evolution, Timeflies adopts an observation stream and a value stream, coupled through three dedicated modules for reliability-aware embedding, observation-guided dependency modeling, and joint prediction. We further construct Shadow, a benchmark that combines natural missingness from public datasets with real-world industrial data, and introduce the Observation-Value Joint Entropy (OVJE) metric to comprehensively evaluate this coupled predictability. Extensive experiments show that Timeflies consistently outperforms existing methods, highlighting the importance of explicitly modeling future observability in time series forecasting with missing values. Code and dataset are available in https://github.com/ant-intl/Timeflies.

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

Homogeneity Bias in Open-Weight LLMs Is Robust to Decoding Hyperparameters

Large language models (LLMs) reproduce homogeneity bias – the tendency to portray marginalized groups as more internally similar than dominant groups – but whether this bias is stable or an artifact of inference settings has only been studied in single proprietary models. We map homogeneity bias across a 5x5 temperature-by-top-p grid in seven open-weight instruction-tuned LLMs (7-20B parameters). Hispanic and Asian Americans are portrayed as more homogeneous than White Americans in at least 18 of 20 hyperparameter configurations across six of seven models, including at extreme sampling settings. African American and gender bias show model-specific variation in direction. A conservative cell-level re-analysis confirms Hispanic and Asian homogeneity as robust, while weaker African American and gender signals largely do not survive, establishing group-specific robustness. We also apply the same grid to a names-based paradigm in which group identity is signaled via racially distinctive surnames rather than explicit labels. The names paradigm corroborates Hispanic and Asian homogeneity bias, but Black-coded surnames elicit robustly less homogeneous outputs than White-coded names in every model tested – a reversal absent from the label paradigm – showing that how group identity is operationalized shapes which biases surface and in which direction.