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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

The Query Channel: Information-Theoretic Limits of Masking-Based Explanations

arXiv:2604.16689v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Masking-based post-hoc explanation methods, such as KernelSHAP and LIME, estimate local feature importance by querying a black-box model under randomized perturbations. This paper formulates this procedure as communication over a query channel, where the latent explanation acts as a message and each masked evaluation is a channel use. Within this framework, the complexity of the explanation is captured by the entropy of the hypothesis class, while the query interface supplies information at a rate determined by an identification capacity per query. We derive a strong converse showing that, if the explanation rate exceeds this capacity, the probability of exact recovery necessarily converges to one in error for any sequence of explainers and decoders. We also prove an achievability result establishing that a sparse maximum-likelihood decoder attains reliable recovery when the rate lies below capacity. A Monte Carlo estimator of mutual information yields a non-asymptotic query benchmark that we use to compare optimal decoding with Lasso- and OLS-based procedures that mirror LIME and KernelSHAP. Experiments reveal a range of query budgets where information theory permits reliable explanations but standard convex surrogates still fail. Finally, we interpret super-pixel resolution and tokenization for neural language models as a source-coding choice that sets the entropy of the explanation and show how Gaussian noise and nonlinear curvature degrade the query channel, induce waterfall and error-floor behavior, and render high-resolution explanations unattainable.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Hidden Degradation Costs in Energy-Cost-Only HEMS Optimisation: Study on Battery and PV Sensitivity

arXiv:2606.16051v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Residential battery energy storage systems (BESS) are increasingly deployed alongside photovoltaic (PV) generation to reduce household energy costs under volatile time-of-use (TOU) tariffs. Model predictive control (MPC) is a widely adopted optimisation strategy for home energy management systems (HEMS), typically formulated to minimise net energy cost, subject to physical and operational constraints. However, battery degradation is rarely embedded in the optimisation objective, meaning its cost is unquantified and aggressive; high-cycle-count strategies could incur significant losses once deployed to physical systems. This paper presents a receding-horizon mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) baseline for a UK residential HEMS, using demand data from the REFIT dataset. A 3 by 3 sensitivity study is conducted across three battery sizes and three PV array sizes, with post-hoc degradation cost estimated using the Naumann stress model and rainflow cycle counting. Results show that degradation remains constant for each battery size and can exceed energy cost savings by up to 1,060 %. These results demonstrate that energy-cost-only optimisation systematically underestimates the true system cost, motivating a degradation-aware control formulation.

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Coverage Guarantees for Pseudo-Calibrated Conformal Prediction under Distribution Shift

arXiv:2602.14913v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts. We analyze the use of pseudo-calibration as a tool to counter this performance loss under a bounded label-conditional covariate shift model. Using tools from domain adaptation, we derive a lower bound on target coverage in terms of the source-domain loss of the classifier and a Wasserstein measure of the shift. Using this result, we provide a method to design pseudo-calibrated sets that inflate the conformal threshold by a slack parameter to keep target coverage above a prescribed level. Finally, we propose a source-tuned pseudo-calibration algorithm that interpolates between hard pseudo-labels and randomized labels as a function of classifier uncertainty. Numerical experiments show that our bounds qualitatively track pseudo-calibration behavior and that the source-tuned scheme mitigates coverage degradation under distribution shift while maintaining nontrivial prediction set sizes.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

Efficiently Linking Real Scenes with Synthetic Data Generation for AI-based Cognitive Robotics and Computer Vision Applications

AI vision models are a driving factor for the potential use case scenarios of cognitive robotics within in the industry and household applications. A large array of methods from semantic environment analysis towards 6D and grasping pose estimation have been proposed based on the latest AI achievements. However, such advancements require further strong and efficient methods w.r.t. training data and AI-architectures, which are capable in synergy to tackle current challenges, precision limits, and scalability beyond domain gaps. In this paper, we discuss these current limits and trends in the related state-of-the-art which are challenging those. Further we discuss our current work in progress on bridging the domain gap between simulations and real world applications by linking those in the training data generation.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Configurable Clinical Information Extraction with Agentic RAG: What Works, What Breaks, and Why

arXiv:2606.19602v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Patient contexts span hundreds of heterogeneous documents and thousands of structured data points, yet the document-level metadata that AI systems need for retrieval and triage is absent or incomplete. Standard retrieval-augmented generation fails on this data, mishandling temporal reasoning, cross-document dependencies, and missing metadata. We deploy ACIE (Agentic Clinical Information Extraction) at University Medicine Essen: an on-premise agentic RAG pipeline that reasons over complete patient contexts and grounds every answer in source passages for clinician verification. We quantify the metadata gap, trace the architectural decisions it shaped, and evaluate extraction alongside an independent retrospective lymphoma registry study, in which nuclear-medicine physicians verify every extracted value against its cited sources. Across 7,326 judgments, clinicians accepted 96.5\% of extractions, with per-type acceptance ranging from 80\% to 99\%.

06.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Cavity-enhanced superconducting response in an underdoped cuprate

arXiv:2606.18084v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Superconductors carry electrical current without resistance when paired electrons condense into a coherent macroscopic quantum state. In underdoped cuprates, evidence suggests that pairing-related correlations and superconducting fluctuations can survive above the temperature at which global coherence is lost, pointing to phase fluctuations as a key limitation on superconductivity in this regime. Motivated by recent demonstrations of cavity-modified collective states in quantum materials, we investigate whether superconducting coherence can be stabilized by engineering the electromagnetic environment of the superconductor. We study an underdoped YBa$_2$Cu$_3$O$_{7-\delta}$ thin film in a tunable terahertz cavity formed with a semi-transparent gold mirror. From temperature-dependent terahertz transmission measurements, we find that the cavity enhances the superconducting response below the critical temperature, with an increase of the inferred superfluid weight. The effect becomes more pronounced at smaller cavity lengths and is accompanied by an upward shift of the superconducting onset temperature. Calculations based on a cavity-coupled model for phase-fluctuating superconductors capture these trends and support an interpretation in terms of cavity-enhanced phase stiffness. These results showcase the potential of cavity engineering for designing emergent functionalities in correlated systems.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Arbitrary control over multimode wave propagation for machine learning

arXiv:2402.17750v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Controlled multimode wave propagation can enable more space-efficient photonic processors than architectures based on discrete components connected by single-mode waveguides. Instead of defining discrete elements, one can sculpt the continuous substrate of a photonic processor to perform computations through multimode interference in two dimensions. Here we designed and demonstrated a device with a refractive index that can be rapidly reprogrammed across space, allowing arbitrary control of wave propagation. The device, a two-dimensional programmable waveguide, uses parallel electro-optic modulation of the refractive index of a slab waveguide with about $10^4$ programmable spatial degrees of freedom. We implemented neural network inference on benchmark tasks with up to $49$-dimensional vectors in a single pass, without digital pre-processing or post-processing. Theoretical and numerical analyses further indicated that two-dimensional programmable waveguides may offer not only a constant-factor reduction in device area but also a scaling benefit, with the area required growing as $N^{1.5}$ rather than $N^2$.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

QMaxCal: Path-Space Regularization for Open Quantum Control via Girsanov's Theorem

arXiv:2606.19947v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable quantum control in the presence of decoherence requires policies that combat the effect of environmental noise on the controlled dynamics. Open quantum systems under continuous monitoring generate classical measurement records whose drift depends on the noise experienced by the system; the records of two evolutions sharing the same decoherence channels differ only in this drift, so Girsanov's theorem yields a closed-form, differentiable estimator of the KL divergence between their trajectory distributions. We instantiate this estimator with two physically motivated reference measures, yielding two regularizers that both drive the system toward states where the effects of decoherence are minimal: the Wiener KL (KL_W), which is empirically more effective under certain conditions on the noise model, and the drift-variance regularizer (R_DV), which works for all noise models. Both are qualitatively distinct from existing penalties on control fluence or smoothness: they penalize the observable consequences of control on the decoherence channels rather than the control amplitude itself. The regularizers outperform unregularized gradient-based and reinforcement-learning baselines across a range of open quantum systems – including single- and multi-qubit benchmarks and a multi-qubit chain calibrated to a published snapshot of the IBM Kingston processor – along several axes of evaluation: final-state fidelity, robustness to mismatch in the assumed noise model (gains grow from +17 pp at training noise to +27 pp under 2.5x noise mismatch), and occupation of forbidden states. The regularizers reduce infidelity by up to 50%, with ~16% gains on the calibrated IBM Kingston chain.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

End-to-End Machine Learning for Depressive State Classification via EEG and fNIRS

arXiv:2606.11555v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The escalating demand for mental healthcare, driven by rising societal stress, highlights the limitations of traditional psychiatric diagnostics. Conventional methods - relying primarily on clinical interviews and patient self-reports - are inherently vulnerable to subjective bias and the varying empirical judgment of practitioners. To address the need for quantitative evaluation, biological signal-based detection, including electroencephalography (EEG) and functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS), has emerged as a promising objective alternative. Such technology is particularly vital for identifying latent depressive states that may be unrecognized by the subjects themselves. Furthermore, in aging populations, the high comorbidity between depression and dementia necessitates early differentiation to prevent mutual symptom exacerbation and maintain Quality of Life (QoL). This pilot study of eleven healthy students establishes a framework for biological signal-based depression detection, serving as a foundational step toward automated, objective diagnostic tools for clinical use.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

PhysDrift: Bridging the Embodiment Gap in Humanoid Co-Speech Motion Generation

arXiv:2606.19935v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Humanoid robots require co-speech motions that are not only expressive and speech-aligned, but also physically executable under embodiment constraints. Existing co-speech generation pipelines are predominantly human-centric: motions are first generated in human-body representations such as SMPL-X and subsequently retargeted to humanoid robots. In this work, we identify a fundamental embodiment gap in this paradigm, where the mismatch between human motion manifolds and humanoid embodiment constraints disrupts embodiment consistency during motion transfer and physical execution. Through extensive analysis, we show that although retargeting can preserve coarse motion semantics, it significantly compresses motion diversity and weakens prosody-motion synchronization, limiting expressive humanoid behaviors. To address this problem, we first propose IK-EER, a prosody-preserving humanoid motion curation framework that jointly optimizes kinematic feasibility and speech-motion temporal alignment during retargeting. Building upon the curated robot-native motion dataset, we further introduce PhysDrift, an embodiment-aware co-speech motion generation framework that directly predicts executable humanoid joint trajectories from speech without relying on intermediate human-body representations. Unlike conventional human-centric pipelines, PhysDrift maintains embodiment consistency throughout both training and inference while incorporating physical regularization to stabilize robot motion dynamics. Extensive experiments and real-world humanoid deployment demonstrate that embodiment-aware robot-native generation substantially improves speech-motion alignment, physical plausibility, motion smoothness, inference efficiency, and real-time interaction capability.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Architectural Wisdom: A Framework for Governing Optimization in AI Systems

arXiv:2606.16319v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern AI systems exhibit structural failures that capability scaling alone does not reliably fix: they optimize under-specified objectives with no architectural mechanism to question whether the objective should be optimized at all. Engagement maximization can amplify harmful pathways; tool-using agents can commit irreversible actions; preference-trained language models can become sycophantic. We argue that this failure is a wisdom problem, not an intelligence problem. We use "wisdom" in a deliberately architectural sense, not as a claim about virtue, consciousness, or moral omniscience. Intelligence accepts a goal and optimizes within it; wisdom interrogates whether the goal should be optimized at all. The two are separable architectural properties. We propose architectural wisdom as a corrigible objective-governance layer above the optimization substrate. The layer makes three structural commitments explicit and nondegenerate before any action: temporal horizon, relational boundary, and irreversibility. It is realized by four components (Structural Utility Transform, Moral Admissibility Interface, Arbitration and Escalation Controller, Value Revision Channel) that compute a six-coordinate wisdom tuple over horizon, relational coverage, irreversibility, admissibility, value revision, and auditability. We motivate the architecture by eight cases drawn from contemporary AI failures, secular wisdom traditions, and hard ethical situations, and defend the distinction against the intelligence-completeness thesis using goal-questioning over goal-taking, Bostrom's orthogonality, structural separation in our exemplar cases, and persistent failure modes despite capability scaling. The framework is the conceptual contract for a larger architecture whose formal specifications and empirical validation are developed in subsequent work.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

FreeBridge: Variational Schrödinger Bridges for Cellular Transition Dynamics

arXiv:2606.11286v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: High-content imaging assays quantify cellular responses to chemical and genetic perturbations, yet continuous trajectories of individual cells are unobservable because cells are chemically fixed at acquisition. Perturbation modeling therefore reduces to inferring stochastic transport between control and treated populations observed only as separate marginals. While recent generative models achieve strong end-point alignment, boundary consistency does not determine intermediate evolution: multiple stochastic processes may connect identical marginals while traversing regions unsupported by observed single-cell morphologies. We introduce FreeBridge, a Schrödinger Bridge formulation for single-cell transition modeling under endpoint-only supervision. FreeBridge defines atomic states as instance-segmented single-cell representations, establishing a fixed cellular manifold, and learns stochastic transport constrained within this geometry via empirical latent support regularization. Across BBBC021, RxRx1, and JUMP, FreeBridge maintains competitive or improved endpoint fidelity and mechanism-of-action retention under a unified evaluation protocol; on BBBC021, it further reduces intermediate support violations. These findings highlight the importance of geometric grounding for biologically interpretable perturbation dynamics. Project page: https://y-research-sbu.github.io/FreeBridge/.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Target-confidence Recourse Using tSeTlin machines: TRUST

arXiv:2606.18832v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Counterfactual explanations are widely used to provide algorithmic recourse in high-stakes decision-making systems. Most existing methods seek the smallest change to an input that flips a model's decision. However, decision-makers often rely not only on predicted labels but also on confidence thresholds and risk margins. Counterfactuals that barely cross a decision boundary can be fragile and unstable under noise or model variation. In this paper, we propose Target-confidence Recourse Using tSeTlin machines (TRUST), a framework in which users explicitly specify the desired prediction confidence for recourse. Rather than generating counterfactuals and evaluating confidence afterward, TRUST directly searches for minimal changes that satisfy a user-defined confidence target, enabling comparison of recourse options in terms of cost, confidence, and robustness. We instantiate TRUST using a Probabilistic Tsetlin Machine (PTM) combined with Bayesian optimization. The probabilistic clause-based structure of PTM links prediction confidence to the stability of decision rules. We show that counterfactuals satisfying the same rules can still differ substantially in reliability depending on how securely they satisfy those rules, revealing whether decisions are supported by robust or fragile clause activations. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that target-confidence counterfactuals produce more robust and interpretable recourse than conventional boundary-based approaches. Across multiple benchmarks, TRUST achieves perfect robustness while maintaining low recourse cost, including an L2 distance of 0.10 on the Haberman dataset at 0.92 confidence. By explicitly controlling confidence and exposing rule-level stability, TRUST provides actionable recourse for high-stakes decision support.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

SCR-Guided Difficulty-Aware Optimization for Infrared Small Target Detection

Infrared small target detection remains challenging due to severe background clutter, low contrast, and weak spatial responses where geometric overlap alone is insufficient to characterize detection quality. In this work, we propose REEM (Reweighted Explicit-visibility Enhanced Modulation), a lightweight SCR-guided difficulty-aware optimization framework that incorporates Signal-to-Clutter Ratio (SCR) as a physically meaningful visibility prior during training. Instead of modifying the network architecture or directly optimizing SCR, REEM computes a ground-truth local SCR from the input image and applies a differentiable modulation to the soft-IoU learning signal, emphasizing low-visibility targets while preserving stable optimization and identical inference behavior. REEM is integrated into a U-Net-based MSHNet without introducing additional parameters, architectural modifications, or inference-time overhead. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent improvements over the baseline, achieving higher IoU and detection probability (Pd) together with substantially reduced false alarms (FA), particularly under challenging low-visibility conditions. These results suggest that SCR-guided difficulty-aware optimization provides an effective and physically grounded complement to conventional overlap-based objectives for infrared small target detection. The code is available at https://github. com/yall-in-one/Reemm.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Exploding and vanishing gradients in deep neural networks: the effect of residual connections

arXiv:2606.17013v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The well known phenomenon of exploding and vanishing gradients in deep neural networks is analyzed using multiplicative ergodic theory. The effect of adding a residual connection is explained in this context. Specifically, a characterization of Liapunov exponents due to Furstenberg and Kifer is exploited in order to make a precise statement about the Liapunov spectrum and the effect of residual connections on it.

16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

MamBOA: State-Space Architecture for Video Recognition

Fine-grained action recognition demands temporal reasoning that general-purpose architectures address through different cost-accuracy tradeoffs: 3D dense operators couple computation to the input volume, while difference-based methods approximate motion through rigid, hand-crafted subtraction of uncontextualized features - each reflecting a deliberate design choice with corresponding limitations in expressiveness or flexibility. We present MamBOA, a backbone-agnostic temporal framework built upon a novel interleaved scan structure that recasts the selective state-space recurrence (S6) as a native motion synthesizer. By interleaving consecutive feature representations extracted from a pretrained backbone into a single alternating sequence, the proposed scan structurally drives the recurrence to encode both temporal observations of each position within a shared hidden state, separated by only a single decay step - rendering the inter-frame transition an intrinsic component of the state dynamics rather than an externally computed quantity. A cascade of dedicated alignment and decoding operations then distills this joint encoding into an explicit motion representation, which a dual-path pooling mechanism adaptively aggregates by balancing attention-driven selection with uniform temporal coverage. The framework interfaces seamlessly with CNN, Transformer, and Mamba backbone families, adding only ~2.1 GFLOPs per feature pair. On Diving48, MamBOA achieves 85.02% Top-1 accuracy with an image-pretrained backbone and 86.24% with a video-pretrained backbone processing the entire video in a single forward pass - demonstrating that structurally induced state-space dynamics constitute a principled and general foundation for motion modeling.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Dummy Backdoor as a Defense: Removing Unknown Backdoors via Shared Internal Mechanisms for Generative LLMs

Backdoor attacks pose a serious threat to the safety and reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs), as they cause models to behave normally on clean inputs while producing attacker-specified responses when hidden triggers are present. Removing such unknown backdoors is particularly challenging when the defender does not know the backdoor attack types or the internal mechanisms formed through backdoor training. In this work, we propose a simple but effective backdoor removal method based on shared internal mechanisms across different backdoors. First, we show that different backdoors with the same task (attack objective) induce similar trigger-activated changes in the internal activations. Motivated by this observation, our method intentionally embeds a backdoor with a known trigger (dummy backdoor) and then removes it through further fine-tuning on dummy-triggered inputs paired with clean responses. Since the dummy backdoor and the unknown backdoor can rely on shared internal mechanisms, removing the dummy backdoor also reduces the effect of the unknown backdoor. We evaluate our method on three backdoor attack types across multiple model families. Experimental results show that our method substantially reduces the attack success rate of the unknown backdoor while preserving model utility, outperforming representative existing defense methods in both backdoor removal effectiveness and utility preservation. These findings suggest that a defender-controllable backdoor can serve as a helpful proxy for mitigating unknown backdoors in generative LLMs.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Variational Learning for Insertion-based Generation

arXiv:2606.02133v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Non-monotonic sequence generation methods, such as masked diffusion models, provide a flexible alternative to left-to-right autoregressive modeling by allowing tokens to be generated in non-fixed and prescribed orders. Despite their practical advantages, most existing non-monotonic models are order-agnostic and rely on a fixed-length grid, limiting their ability to support variable-length generation and adaptive insertion order. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic framework for learning insertion order in variable-length insertion models. We formalize a bijective correspondence between insertion trajectories and permutations, which enables an exact reparameterization of the data likelihood as a sum over permutations. Building on this result, we propose the Insertion Process (IP), a stochastic generative model that jointly learns where to insert, what to insert, and when to terminate, trained via permutation-based variational inference. Unlike prior fixed-canvas approaches, IP natively supports variable-length generation and learns data-driven preferences over insertion orders. Experiments on goal-conditioned planning and molecular string generation demonstrate that learning insertion order improves both modeling quality and generalization in domains without a canonical left-to-right structure.

19.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Cost-Performance Evaluation of Large Language Models for Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis of HCAHPS Patient Comments: A Validation Study

Background: Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) free-text comments contain actionable feedback, but timely, scalable, and affordable sentiment analysis remains challenging for health systems that rely on third-party vendors. Objectives: To evaluate cost-performance tradeoffs between a cost-optimized and a flagship large language model (LLM) for aspect-based sentiment analysis of HCAHPS comments, using human inter-rater agreement as a reproducibility benchmark. Methods: We analyzed 512 free-text HCAHPS comments collected from two community hospitals in calendar year 2023. Six trained reviewers (medical students, recent medical graduates, and practicing internists) independently assigned positive, negative, or neutral labels to each comment-aspect pair; the majority label among three reviewers formed the consensus reference standard. Two OpenAI models - GPT-5-nano (cost-optimized) and GPT-5 (flagship) - were prompted in a zero-shot setting via the OpenAI API. We calculated pairwise Cohen's {kappa} to establish a human inter-rater baseline, then compared each model's labels to the consensus using Cohen's {kappa}, accuracy, weighted F1, and per-call cost and latency. Results: Mean human inter-rater agreement was {kappa} = 0.79 (substantial). Both LLMs exceeded this baseline (cost-optimized {kappa} = 0.85; flagship {kappa} = 0.85) with nearly identical accuracy (0.92) and weighted F1 (0.93 vs. 0.93). Performance was strong on positive (F1 ~ 0.97) and negative (F1 ~ 0.90) classes but poor on the underrepresented neutral class (F1

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Gaussian DP for Reporting Differential Privacy Guarantees in Machine Learning

arXiv:2503.10945v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Current practices for reporting differential privacy (DP) guarantees for machine learning (ML) algorithms such as DP-SGD provide an incomplete and potentially misleading picture. For instance, if only a single $(\varepsilon, \delta)$ is known about a mechanism, standard analyses show that there could exist highly accurate inference attacks against training data records, when, upon a more careful analysis, such accurate attacks do not exist for most practical mechanisms. In this position paper, we argue that using _non-asymptotic_ Gaussian Differential Privacy (GDP) as the primary means of communicating DP guarantees in ML avoids these potential downsides. Using two recent developments in the DP literature: (i) open-source numerical accountants capable of computing the privacy profile and $f$-DP curves of DP-SGD to arbitrary accuracy, and (ii) a decision-theoretic metric over DP representations, we show how to provide non-asymptotic bounds on GDP using numerical accountants, and show that GDP can capture the entire privacy profile of DP-SGD and related algorithms with virtually no error, as quantified by the metric. To support our claims, we investigate the privacy profiles of state-of-the-art DP large-scale image classification, and the TopDown algorithm for the U.S. Decennial Census, observing that GDP fits their profiles remarkably well in all cases. We conclude with a discussion on the strengths and weaknesses of this approach, and discuss which other privacy mechanisms could benefit from GDP.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Tabular Foundation Models for Clinical Survival Analysis via Survival-Aware Adaptation

arXiv:2606.12006v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting time-to-event outcomes such as mortality is a fundamental task in clinical decision-making, commonly addressed through survival analysis. While classical statistical and deep learning approaches have been widely studied, they typically require task-specific training and sufficient labeled data. Recent advances in tabular foundation models offer a new paradigm by learning general-purpose representations for structured data. However, their applicability to censored time-to-event prediction in clinical settings remains underexplored, as typical applications are restricted to discrete classification rather than survival analysis tasks. In this work, we propose a lightweight adaptation approach for applying tabular foundation models to clinical survival analysis by directly training a survival-aware head on top of the pretrained representations. We study representative architectures, including TabPFN, TabDPT, and TabICL, and adapt them using a multi-task logistic regression (MTLR) head to model right-censored time-to-event outcomes. We evaluate this approach on a diverse set of public survival benchmarks and two large-scale ICU cohorts, MIMIC-IV and eICU. Our results show that this transfer learning approach achieves competitive or superior performance compared to strong baselines. On MIMIC-IV, TabDPT-FT-MTLR reaches a C-index of 0.856, corresponding to a relative improvement of +1.4% over the best non-FM baseline (DeepSurv, 0.844) and +6.7% over the best zero-shot model (0.802). On eICU, TabICL-FT-MTLR achieves 0.797, yielding gains of +1.7% (DeepSurv, 0.784) and +6.4% (0.749), respectively. These findings highlight the importance of combining pretrained tabular representations with survival-aware objectives and suggest that tabular foundation models provide a practical and effective alternative for clinical survival prediction.

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-11

Two modes of aversive control in suicidality: joint computational modelling exposes regime-specific clinical signatures invisible to symptom-based stratification

Suicidal thoughts and behaviours (STBs) are heterogeneous in their proximal dynamics, planning, and stress-sensitivity, yet most subtyping efforts remain symptom-driven and rarely validated across independent datasets. Computational mixture modelling offers a principled alternative: by fitting explicit models of learning and action selection and partitioning individuals by their latent parameter profiles, it can identify mechanistically distinct control strategies invisible to cross-sectional symptom measurement. We applied this approach to aversive Go/NoGo performance, jointly clustering two independently collected STB-enriched samples (N = 50 and N = 184) using tasks with the same structure but different duration, reversal timing, and clinical instrumentation. Two recurrent behavioural regimes emerged: a fast/adaptive regime characterised by rapid policy updating and elevated feedback reactivity, and a slow/perseverative regime characterised by slow updating, high choice determinism, and a pronounced cost following contingency reversal. These regimes were stable across initialisations, recovered more parsimoniously in joint than independent solutions, and were largely orthogonal to symptom-based stratification. Critically, stratification by regime exposed clinical-computational coupling structures substantially attenuated in pooled analyses. Pooled, population-level associations were modest and anchored by a broad affective burden axis. Within the slow/perseverative regime, coupling reorganised around learning dynamics and internalizing burden (depression, hopelessness, and active suicidal ideation) with markedly larger effect sizes. Within the fast/adaptive regime, a dissociation between anxious-compulsive and antisocial-disinhibitory profiles emerged along the same computational axis, invisible at the population level. These findings support a view of suicidality heterogeneity in which clinically similar individuals differ in the control strategies they recruit under aversive uncertainty - variation that symptom measurement alone cannot capture.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Efficacy of Painhunting Therapy for Event-Related Depression: A Randomized Controlled Trial with Crossover Replication

Background. Depression affects an estimated 332 million people worldwide and is a leading cause of disability, with up to 80% of major depressive episodes preceded by an identifiable adverse life event [17,18]. First-line treatments target symptoms rather than the precipitating event and are resource-intensive: standard CBT averages roughly 12 sessions, and antidepressant discontinuation carries relapse rates near 35% at six months [8]. These limitations create a clear rationale for brief, structured interventions that address the cognitive and somatic sequelae of adverse life events directly. Painhunting therapy is one such intervention, in which each session targets a discrete adverse event through a structured incident-processing procedure. Methods. We conducted a two-arm, parallel-group, single-site randomised controlled trial comparing Painhunting therapy (Arm A, immediate; n=42) with a waitlist control (Arm B, delayed; n=42) in adults with PHQ-9 >= 9 and active psychological distress related to an adverse life event. After the primary endpoint at T2 (approximately two weeks post-randomisation), Arm B crossed over to active treatment, with T3 as the post-crossover endpoint at approximately four weeks. The primary outcome was PHQ-9 at T2 (between-arm contrast); secondary outcomes were ICG, GAD-7, WHO-DAS 2.0 (12-item), and the Global Impression of Change (GIC). Pre-specified analyses included intention-to-treat, per-protocol, and single-exclusion sensitivity populations. Results. Eighty-four participants were randomised (198 applications, 134 completed screening questionnaire, 119 passed psychometric screening). At T2, mean PHQ-9 was 2.32 (SD 2.59) in Arm A and 16.56 (SD 6.76) in Arm B, yielding an ITT between-arm Cohen d = 2.78 (95% CI 2.19-3.76, p < 0.001). Within-arm paired reductions during each arm's active-treatment window reproduced this magnitude (Arm A T0 to T2 change 14.71, Morris d = 2.80; Arm B T2 to T3 change 14.19, Morris d = 2.77, eligible n=26). Treatment gains were durable at the T4 follow-up (week 8). Aligning each arm to its own end-of-treatment timepoint, the off-treatment drift to week 8 was almost identical between arms: Arm A rose 0.78 points from T2 to T4 (2.19 to 2.97, n=37) and Arm B rose 1.59 points from T3 to T4 (4.74 to 6.33, n=27), the latter falling to 0.77 points once a single documented relapse case (R59) is excluded (4.81 to 5.58, n=26). This small off-treatment rebound then stabilised rather than continuing: Arm A was essentially unchanged from T3 to T4 (change +0.05), with concordant maintenance on ICG, GAD-7, and WHO-DAS. At T4, 68% of Arm A and 41% of Arm B remained in remission (PHQ-9 < 5). Secondary measures (ICG, GAD-7, WHO-DAS) moved in the same direction and to comparable magnitude at every timepoint. The waitlist window in Arm B showed essentially no change on any measure (PHQ-9 change 0.22, p = 0.81). Sensitivity analyses excluding six sub-threshold T2 cases, the single treated-in-error case (R82), the R59 relapse case, and one late T2 submitter left all conclusions unchanged. Conclusions. Painhunting therapy produced large and statistically robust reductions in depression, complicated grief, anxiety, and functional disability over a brief course of three to four sessions, with effect sizes substantially exceeding benchmarks reported for established first-line psychotherapies including CBT and EMDR. Critically, these gains persisted at the week-8 follow-up: depression scores in the immediate-treatment arm were essentially unchanged from four weeks to eight weeks post-randomisation, indicating that the benefit reflects durable change rather than a transient post-session dip. Treatment-window concordance between arms, durability of gains at one month off-treatment, and the flat waitlist trajectory together strengthen the evidence for genuine efficacy rather than spontaneous remission. Baseline covariates including therapeutic alliance, treatment expectancy, self-efficacy, age, and sex showed near-zero associations with outcome, reducing the plausibility of allegiance bias or expectancy effects as primary drivers. The differential retention between arms (88% vs 64% at T3) is attributable to the waitlist design and is discussed as a limitation. These findings support proceeding to a confirmatory active-comparator trial against manualized CBT. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07490691, prospectively registered.

24.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Where Will They Go? Modelling Multimodal Pedestrian Manoeuvres from Ego-centric Videos

Pedestrian trajectory prediction from an ego-centric camera is challenging since it depends on complex interactions with vehicles and scene context, as well as the intention of the pedestrian. By modelling correlation and intent from the historical and future trajectories of the pedestrian, it will usually result in a multimodal (i.e. multiple modes) distribution. Existing stochastic predictors often sample multiple futures from a single unimodal distribution, which can yield sub-optimal 'mixed-mode' trajectories that lie between distinct motion patterns and become implausible in real scenes. In this paper, we propose MMPM, a mode-aware framework that separately models future trajectory distributions into semantically meaningful modes based on the pedestrian's crossing behavior. MMPM consists of two modules: behavior-aware Pedestrian Interaction Module (PIM) that jointly captures pedestrian-vehicle and pedestrian-environment interactions by introducing gaze, head and hand gesture, and a CVAE-based Mode-aware Trajectory Predictor (MTP) module to model the future trajectory distributions on two modes, crossing and non-crossing the road, separately. A query-based decoder further enforces mode consistency during decoding. Experiments on PIE and JAAD datasets show that our method surpasses state-of-the-art baselines. Our proposed MTP is model-agnostic, which can be integrated into existing frameworks such as BiTrap-NP and SGNet-ED to further improve future trajectory prediction performance. We additionally introduce a data-driven validation protocol that matches predictions to spatio-temporally consistent ground-truth trajectories, demonstrating improved frame-wise displacement errors over previous work.

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Parameter-Efficient Adapter Tuning for Tabular-Image Multimodal Learning

Authors:

Tabular-image multimodal learning aims to improve predictive modeling by jointly using structured tabular attributes and visual data. Although pretrained encoders provide strong modality-specific representations, full fine-tuning can be computationally expensive, while keeping encoders frozen may limit task-specific adaptation. We propose the Tabular-Image Adapter (TI-Adapter), a modality-specific adapter-based fine-tuning framework for efficient multimodal adaptation. TI-Adapter freezes the pretrained tabular encoder and learns an adapter after the extracted tabular embedding, while adapting the image branch with embedding-level and bottleneck-level adapters instead of full fine-tuning. Experiments on 20 tabular-image datasets show that TI-Adapter achieves competitive or better predictive performance than full fine-tuning while using substantially fewer trainable parameters. Ablation studies further demonstrate the importance of adapter placement for balancing performance and practical efficiency.