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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

TelcoAgent: A Scalable 5G Multi-KPM Forecasting With 3GPP-Grounded Explainability

arXiv:2606.19821v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Key Performance Measurement (KPM) forecasting is essential for proactive network management of 5G and next-generation telecom networks. However, existing machine learning (ML) approaches face significant limitations in scalability and explainability, restricting their effectiveness in real-world deployments. We propose TelcoAgent, a foundation model-based framework that enables accurate, scalable, and explainable forecasting of multiple KPMs across diverse network cells without the need for site-specific training. Specifically, the framework comprises three key components: (i) an automated three-agent pipeline that constructs a 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) knowledge graph directly from specification documents, (ii) a scalable, time-series foundation model (TSFM)-based prediction pipeline to deliver accurate, zero-shot forecasting, and finally (iii) a reasoning and explanation pipeline that provides actionable, domain-grounded diagnostics. Evaluated using a 3-month, real-world, city-scale 5G KPM dataset from a U.S.-based network operator, TelcoAgent demonstrates high forecasting accuracy for all 7 considered KPMs per cell across 200 cells, while delivering explainable insights and actionable instructions to address network degradations.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Predictive variational inference: Learn the predictively optimal posterior distribution

arXiv:2410.14843v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Vanilla variational inference finds an optimal approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution, but even the exact Bayesian posterior is often not meaningful under model misspecification. We propose predictive variational inference (PVI): a general inference framework that seeks and samples from an optimal posterior density such that the resulting posterior predictive distribution is as close to the true data generating process as possible, while this closeness is measured by multiple scoring rules. By optimizing the objective, the predictive variational inference is generally not the same as, or even attempting to approximate, the Bayesian posterior, even asymptotically. Rather, we interpret it as implicit hierarchical expansion. Further, the learned posterior uncertainty detects heterogeneity of parameters among the population, enabling automatic model diagnosis. This framework applies to both likelihood-exact and likelihood-free models. We demonstrate its application in real data examples.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Semantic Editing with Coupled Stochastic Differential Equations

Editing the content of an image with a pretrained text-to-image model remains challenging. Existing methods often distort fine details or introduce unintended artifacts. We propose using coupled stochastic differential equations (coupled SDEs) to guide the sampling process of any pre-trained generative model that can be sampled by solving an SDE, including diffusion and rectified flow models. By driving both the source image and the edited image with the same correlated noise, our approach steers new samples toward the desired semantics while preserving visual similarity to the source. The method works out-of-the-box, without retraining or auxiliary networks, and achieves high prompt fidelity along with near-pixel-level consistency. These results position coupled SDEs as a simple yet powerful tool for controlled generative AI. Project page: https://z-jianxin.github.io/syncSDE-release/. Code: https://github.com/Z-Jianxin/syncSDE-release.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

CREST: Deployment-Realistic Hardware-in-the-Loop NAS for Embedded Sensing Systems

arXiv:2606.15004v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deploying neural networks on low-power microcontrollers (MCUs) requires selecting model architectures under tight memory, latency, and energy constraints. Existing workflows often simplify this process along one or more axes: static proxy costs such as FLOPs or parameters, treating one MCU as representative, and continuous-inference tests instead of deployed sensing schedules. These assumptions can mis-rank Pareto-front candidates, miss infeasible deployments, and obscure schedule-dependent energy. We present CREST (Cross-platform Runtime Evaluation and Search Tool), a deployment-realistic hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) neural architecture search (NAS) framework for MCU sensing systems. CREST keeps the optimizer, HIL measurement boundary, logging, and replay workflow fixed while exposing workload, model family, target backend, schedule, quantization, and scoring policy as configurable axes. This makes deployment effects experimentally separable within one reusable workflow. We evaluate CREST on inertial odometry and audio classification across three Arm Cortex-M targets. For inertial odometry, measured-energy HIL search reduces median per-inference energy by 41.7% versus FLOPs-based selection and 40.8% versus memory-traffic-based selection at similar error. FLOPs-based selection also chooses infeasible deployments on memory-constrained targets. On the STM32 N657 target, continuous-inference and duty-cycled searches produce different Pareto frontiers. For audio classification, the same application-level policy selects different DS-CNN architectures on different boards, and cross-board replay changes deployment cost substantially. Overall, CREST shows that deployment-realistic MCU NAS must jointly optimize model architecture, target platform, runtime schedule, and deployment policy rather than relying only on static proxy costs or continuous-inference measurements.

05.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

AI Coding Agents in Social Science: Methodologically Diverse, Empirically Consistent, Interpretively Vulnerable

The deployment of LLM-based agents in scientific analysis raises opposing concerns: that agents may reduce methodological diversity, or that they may amplify the analytic flexibility through which researchers reach motivated conclusions. We argue these worries target two empirically separable layers: a design layer of methodological choices, and a verdict layer in which a decision rule maps estimates to a substantive claim. We test both by running 20 independent executions of Claude Code and Codex on a prominent immigration and social-policy against a many-analysts human baseline. At the design layer, Codex matches human methodological diversity and Claude Code produces nearly three times as many specifications; both agents' effect estimates remain broadly aligned with the human consensus, and no agent model exactly matches any human model. A prompt-induced anti-immigration researcher prior reorganizes each agent's methodological decisions but, unlike for biased human analysts in the same data, does not shift aggregate estimates or final verdicts; nor do agents reroute along the methodological axes humans use to bias their estimates. At the verdict layer, an explicit confirmatory prompt flips Claude Code's verdicts from 10% to 90% support while leaving its coefficient distribution essentially unchanged, operating through rule omission rather than rule softening. AI agents can rival or exceed human methodological diversity at the design layer while remaining vulnerable at the verdict layer. In our setting, the locus of AI bias is not estimation but interpretation.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Block-wise Codeword Embedding for Reliable Multi-bit Text Watermarking

Recent multi-bit watermarking methods for large language models (LLMs) prioritize capacity over reliability, often conflating decoding with detection. Our analysis reveals that existing ECC-based extractors suffer from catastrophic false positive rates (FPR), and applying rejection thresholds merely collapses detection sensitivity (TPR) to random guessing. To resolve this structural limitation, we propose BREW (Block-wise Reliable Embedding for Watermarking), a framework shifting the paradigm to designated verification. BREW employs a two-stage mechanism: (i) blind message estimation via independent block voting, followed by (ii) window-shifting verification that rigorously validates the payload against local edits. Experiments demonstrate that BREW achieves a TPR of 0.965 with an FPR of 0.02 under 10% synonym substitution, demonstrating that the high-FPR issue is not an inherent trade-off of multi-bit watermarking, but a solvable structural flaw of prior decoding-centric designs. Our framework is model-agnostic and theoretically grounded, providing a scalable solution for reliable forensic deployment.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Planning under Distribution Shifts with Causal POMDPs

arXiv:2602.23545v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In the real world, planning is often challenged by distribution shifts. As such, a model of the environment obtained under one set of conditions may no longer remain valid as the distribution of states or the environment dynamics change, which in turn causes previously learned strategies to fail. In this work, we propose a theoretical framework for planning under partial observability using Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) formulated using causal knowledge. By representing shifts in the environment as interventions on this causal POMDP, the framework enables evaluating plans under hypothesized changes and actively identifying which components of the environment have been altered. We show how to maintain and update a belief over both the latent state and the underlying domain, and we prove that the value function remains piecewise linear and convex (PWLC) in this augmented belief space. Preservation of PWLC under distribution shifts has the advantage of maintaining the tractability of planning via $\alpha$-vector-based POMDP methods.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

EHRNote-ChatQA: A Benchmark for Evidence-Grounded Multi-Turn Clinical Question Answering over Longitudinal Discharge Summaries

Discharge summaries are crucial clinical documents containing the context of a patient's overall hospital stay, and are routinely reviewed by medical experts for patient readmission, ongoing care, and diagnostic decision-making. When reviewing them, medical experts often must iteratively synthesize information across multiple summaries while verifying the evidence supporting each answer. Although large language models (LLMs) are increasingly explored for clinical question answering, existing benchmarks do not sufficiently reflect this setting: they often evaluate exam-style medical knowledge or focus on single-turn question answering with limited evidence-grounding evaluation. We introduce EHRNote-ChatQA, the first benchmark for evidence-grounded multi-turn clinical question answering over patients' multiple discharge summaries. Built from de-identified MIMIC-IV discharge summaries, EHRNote-ChatQA contains 967 patient-level multi-turn samples spanning one to five notes and 16,072 medical-expert-verified QA pairs (8,036 content questions, each paired with an evidence-grounding question) across eight clinical categories. The benchmark is constructed through an expert-informed pipeline combining discharge-summary structuring schema, expert-curated multi-turn QA templates, and LLM-based generation, followed by review and revision of every single QA sample by 11 medical experts. Benchmarking 22 open- and closed-source LLMs reveals several challenges, including that LLMs struggle more with evidence grounding than content answering, multi-turn errors compound across turns, and single-turn clinical QA performance does not reliably transfer to this setting. These findings establish EHRNote-ChatQA as a rigorous and practical benchmark for evaluating clinical QA systems. The dataset will be made publicly available through PhysioNet credentialed access.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

CRUMB: Efficient Prior Fitted Network Inference via Distributionally Matched Context Batching

arXiv:2606.11473v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Prior-fitted networks (PFNs) are a promising class of tabular foundation models that perform in-context learning, whereby the entire labelled training set is supplied as context, and predictions for test queries are produced in a single forward pass. However, the quadratically scaling self-attention mechanism in many PFN architectures makes inference prohibitive for very large training datasets. We propose CRUMB (Clustered Retrieval Using Minimised-MMD Batching), a three-stage inference wrapper that (i) clusters the test queries, (ii) selects a small, distributionally matched training subset for each cluster by greedily minimising the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), and (iii) runs exact PFN inference on each reduced-context batch. CRUMB is architecture-agnostic and requires no retraining. On the 51-dataset TabArena benchmark, evaluated across three PFN architectures (TabPFNv2, TabICLv1, TabICLv2), we show that CRUMB outperforms similar state-of-the-art context selection strategies. We also show that CRUMB is resilient to covariate drift, as the MMD-minimisation step naturally helps align the training context distribution to match the current test batch distributions.

10.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Long-read sequencing enables high-accuracy mitochondrial heteroplasmy detection in Parkinson's disease

Background: Low-frequency heteroplasmic mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variants are associated with aging and neurological diseases, including Parkinson's disease (PD). Targeted deep mtDNA sequencing using PacBio HiFi long reads has the potential to resolve heteroplasmy across the full mitochondrial genome with high accuracy. Methods: To validate Vega PacBio sequencing for detecting mtDNA heteroplasmy, we analyzed four predefined mixtures of two mtDNA haplotypes. We generated a single long-range PCR amplicon covering the entire mitochondrial genome. These amplicons were mixed at predefined ratios (minor mixture haplotype component: 5%, 2%, 1%, and 0.1%). Variant calling was performed using Mutserve2, and accuracy was assessed by calculating the F1 score from comparisons between expected and detected variants. Full-length mtDNA PacBio sequencing was applied to investigate heteroplasmy across fibroblast passages derived from five LRRK2 p.Gly2019Ser variant carriers (n=3 affected with PD and n=2 unaffected carriers). Changes in mtDNA heteroplasmy level and variant load were assessed longitudinally using a linear mixed model. Results: The single-amplicon approach enabled full-length haplotype resolution without amplification bias associated with overlapping PCR strategies. The F1 score of the predefined mixtures was 1.0 for heteroplasmy levels between 5% and 1% and remained high (0.91) at 0.1%. We detected n=10/62 variants discordant with the Illumina reference at the 0.1% mixture, but sensitivity remained very high at 1.00 in that mixture. Detected minor variants closely matched expected heteroplasmy levels, with average variant levels of 0.057 (5%), 0.022 (2%), 0.011 (1%), and 0.001 (0.1%). Across twelve fibroblast passages, we observed fewer mtDNA heteroplasmic variants ({beta}=-3.2, p=0.026). Increased heteroplasmic variant load over time was also associated with older age ({beta}=1.50, p=0.001) and PD affection status ({beta}=5.0, p=1.0 x 10-4) in LRRK2 variant carriers. Notably, we observed distinct patterns of heteroplasmic variants that either increased or decreased in heteroplasmy level across passages. Conclusion: PacBio HiFi sequencing, combined with a single-amplicon strategy, enables accurate full-length mtDNA heteroplasmy detection and longitudinal analysis, providing a valuable tool for studying mitochondrial variation and dynamics in disease.

11.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Cost analysis of overseas versus domestic vaccination of US-bound refugees

Context: To ensure healthy resettlement and protect US health security, the Vaccination Program for US-bound Refugees (VPR) offers some recommended vaccines to refugees overseas before resettlement to the United States. The selected vaccines and number of doses vary by country of departure. VPR was found to be cost-saving in 2018 but had since expanded to more sites. Objective: Assess VPR's current costs and impact on post-arrival domestic vaccination needs and costs. Setting and Participants: A model-based analysis of the Federal government costs for VPR and post-arrival (US) vaccination of resettled refugees separated across five regions: Africa, Asia, the Middle East and North Africa/Republic of Turkiye and Middle East, Europe, and the Americas using fiscal year 2024 data. Design: We quantified and compared full vaccination costs for refugees under two scenarios: (1) 'No VPR' and (2) 'VPR'. Refugees would receive no vaccines overseas and be fully vaccinated after US arrival under 'No VPR'. Under 'VPR', refugees receive one or two doses of selected vaccines overseas before completing vaccination schedules after arrival. Main Outcomes: Costs were reported in 2023 US dollars for 'VPR' and 'No VPR' scenarios and further subdivided by grouping countries/sites depending on whether the International Organization for Migration (IOM) provides vaccination services for refugees (IOM sites) versus non-IOM providers (non-IOM sites). Results: 'VPR' resulted in average net cost savings of $147 per person or $14.7 million per 100,000-refugee cohort compared to providing all vaccines after US arrival ('No VPR'). 'VPR' was cost-saving across most regions, except for IOM sites in Europe, where a net cost of $44 per person was observed. Net cost savings per person were highest for IOM sites in Africa ($333). Conclusions: VPR remains a cost-saving strategy, while protecting US-bound refugees' health and US health security by preventing disease outbreaks during resettlement.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

AdaSTORM: Scaling LLM Reasoning on Dynamic Graphs via Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Multi-Agent Collaboration

arXiv:2606.16328v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable potential in dynamic graph reasoning, but suffer from a scaling bottleneck: current models can only handle graphs with tens of nodes, constrained by exponential reasoning overhead and finite context windows. While multi-agent systems (MAS) offer collective reasoning and topology-aware orchestration, capabilities naturally suited for graph-structured tasks, their application to dynamic graphs remains unexplored. This paper presents Scaling LLM Reasoning on Dynamic Graphs via Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Multi-Agent Collaboration (AdaSTORM), a framework that reformulates large-scale dynamic graph reasoning into two stages: (i) Adaptive Partitioning, partitioning large-scale dynamic graphs into subregions that match the model's reasoning capacity while minimizing inference cost; and (ii) Collaborative Reasoning, aligning graph partition topologies with a spatio-temporal decoupled multi-agent architecture. AdaSTORM is the first multi-agent framework tailored for dynamic graph reasoning. Extensive experiments show that AdaSTORM successfully breaks through the scaling bottleneck, scaling reasoning to thousand-node graphs with over 90% accuracy across several large-scale dynamic graph settings without external tools, significantly outperforms seven competitive baselines. Furthermore, it achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on existing benchmarks and generalizes robustly to real-world datasets. The source code is available at: https://github.com/irisorchid107/AdaSTORM/.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Delta-Based Target Reformulation for Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Using LSTM and Transformer Models

Authors:

arXiv:2606.17692v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate short-term electricity load forecasting is critical for the reliable and economic operation of modern power systems, under non-stationarity arising from weather variability, calendar effects, and evolving consumption patterns. While deep learning models such as LSTMs and Transformers show promising performance, most existing studies focus on direct absolute load prediction without explicitly addressing target non-stationarity. Motivated by classical time-series differencing techniques in ARIMA models, this paper investigates a delta-based target reformulation for short-term electricity load forecasting using deep learning. Instead of directly predicting absolute load values, the proposed formulation trains models to predict the change in load between consecutive time steps, with final forecasts reconstructed using the last observed load. This aims to stabilize the learning target and reduce forecasting difficulty. Using multi-year, hourly real-world electricity load data from India, augmented with meteorological variables from the NASA POWER project and calendar features, this study evaluates LSTM and Transformer models under both formulations, benchmarking them against LightGBM. Experiments are conducted for hour-ahead and day-ahead horizons, assessing performance via Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Results show that delta-based reformulation consistently improves forecasting accuracy for hour-ahead prediction across all evaluated models, yielding MAPE reductions of over 50% compared to absolute formulations. For day-ahead forecasting, delta targets specifically benefit deep sequence models (LSTM and Transformer), while LightGBM remains competitive under the absolute formulation. These findings indicate that while delta reformulation is a powerful inductive bias for neural networks, its efficacy is model- and horizon-dependent.

14.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Exploring the association of Obesity on Cold and Warm Autoimmune Hemolytic Anemia in San Joaquin Valley: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study

The relationship between obesity and specific autoimmune diseases haas been well-established, specifically due to obesity's role in promoting pro-inflammatory states. Although not much literature has been documented regarding obesity association with AIHA. As such, this study aims to assess any correlations in patients with elevated body mass index (BMI) and autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AIHA). Here we present a retrospective cross-sectional study conducted over a four-year period, across four medical centers during which a new electronic medical record was implemented. The study included 25 patients who had a previously documented history of AIHA from another facility, DAT positive with indicators of hemolysis, or DAT positive with monomer specific antisera. The patients BMI was recorded at the time of presentation to the hospital. However, for patients with a prior history of AIHA or those transferred from another facility, the BMI that was closest to the time period of when the patient was diagnosed with AIHA was used as an adjunct. Our results show that there is an association of patients with elevated BMI (>25) and AIHA; however, various other confounding variables should be taken into consideration, and further research should be done to establish a causal relationship.

15.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

Re-evaluating the Cross-Sectional Prevalence of Severe Age-Related Hearing Loss Using Extreme Value Statistics

Authors:

Standard demographic models of age-related hearing loss (presbycusis) predominantly utilize symmetric functions, such as log-normal distributions for age-binned thresholds and 4-parameter logistic curves for prevalence estimates. While these models capture early-to-moderate degradation effectively, they structurally struggle to characterize the heavy tails associated with severe clinical impairment. In this study, we present a statistical critique using a secondary analysis of the historical Medical Research Council (MRC) National Study of Hearing (1980-1986) dataset. By applying Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution theory, we demonstrate that as severity increases, the underlying statistical geometry of hearing loss shifts. The asymmetric, heavy-tailed GEV distribution provides a parsimonious description of severe impairment, requiring fewer parameters than standard symmetric models. However, we explicitly acknowledge that utilizing static population data to infer progression introduces an ecological fallacy. Furthermore, the dataset's historical nature embeds unquantified generational cohort effects. We conclude that while extreme value statistics offer a compelling mathematical framework for modeling the variance of severe presbycusis, true longitudinal datasets are required to isolate physiological degradation from historical cohort variance.

16.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Locally Gentle State Certification for High Dimensional Quantum Systems

arXiv:2602.04550v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Standard approaches to quantum statistical inference rely on measurements that induce a collapse of the wave function, effectively consuming the quantum state to extract information. In this work, we investigate the fundamental limits of locally-gentle quantum state certification, where the learning algorithm is constrained to perturb the state by at most $\alpha$ in trace norm, thereby allowing for the reuse of samples. We analyze the hypothesis testing problem of distinguishing whether an unknown state $\rho$ is equal to a reference $\rho_0$ or $\epsilon$-far from it. We derive the minimax sample complexity for this problem, quantifying the information-theoretic price of non-destructive measurements. Specifically, by constructing explicit measurement operators, we show that the constraint of $\alpha$-gentleness imposes a sample size penalty of $\frac{d}{\alpha^2}$, yielding a total sample complexity of $n = \Theta(\frac{d^3}{\epsilon^2 \alpha^2})$. Our results clarify the trade-off between information extraction and state disturbance, and highlight deep connections between physical measurement constraints and privacy mechanisms in quantum learning. Crucially, we find that the sample size penalty incurred by enforcing $\alpha$-gentleness scales linearly with the Hilbert-space dimension $d$ rather than the number of parameters $d^2-1$ typical for high-dimensional private estimation.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

An Evaluation of Data Leakage Risks in Tool-Using LLM Agents in Realistic Scenarios

arXiv:2606.17114v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: AI agents are increasingly being adopted in enterprise and personal settings with access to emails, databases, documents, and other tools where they can read, update, and disseminate sensitive information. Much of prior research on data leakage risks in agents has focused on adversarial data exfiltration through prompt injections and jailbreaks. However, sensitive information may also be exposed during non-adversarial use, creating leakage risks even when users issue benign requests. We report a joint evaluation by the Singapore AI Safety Institute and the Korea AI Safety Institute examining agent data leakage in 12 realistic, non-adversarial tasks spanning customer support, DevOps, web automation, and enterprise and personal productivity. The evaluation covers five risk types: lack of data awareness, audience awareness, policy compliance, data minimization, and access-boundary awareness. Both institutes tested a common set of scenarios mirroring real-world deployments using independent testing environments and task-specific LLM-judge rubrics. Across the three tested agents, none achieved fully correct and fully safe execution across all scenarios. Successful task completion often coincided with data-handling failures such as accessing unnecessary information or disclosing information to inappropriate recipients, indicating that capability and data-handling safety should be evaluated separately. Qualitative review also revealed claim-action mismatches, simulation-aware behavior, user-simulator role reversal, and interpretation gaps in automated judging. Overall, the results indicate that operational data leakage is a first-order agent-safety concern distinct from adversarial exfiltration and provide a methodology for future evaluations of agent data-handling safety.

18.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Spectral analysis of equilibration: information leakage in isolated quantum systems

arXiv:2606.12545v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We develop a unified dynamical-spectral framework for equilibration in isolated quantum systems based on a subspace coarse-graining approach. Central to our formulation is the Leakage Fidelity Function (LFF), defined as the probability that a unitarily evolving state escapes the support of its initial subspace. This quantity provides a direct, operational measure of information flow and memory loss without invoking ensemble assumptions or perturbative arguments. We derive universal bounds on temporal fluctuations of the LFF, in terms of the spectral gap structure and the square of the effective dimension, evincing that large spectral delocalization suppresses fluctuations and guarantees equilibration on average. By introducing spectral power distributions and associated entropic measures, we establish a quantitative link between phase mixing, gap participation, and dynamical stability. We further investigate the equilibration timescale by connecting the LFF to quantum speed limits, thereby revealing the average time required for equilibration. Our results provide a state-dependent, geometrically transparent perspective on how spectral complexity and subspace information leakage jointly govern irreversibility in closed quantum many-body systems.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Unsupervised Learning of Efficient Exploration: Pre-training Adaptive Policies via Self-Imposed Goals

arXiv:2601.19810v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Unsupervised pre-training can equip reinforcement learning agents with prior knowledge and accelerate learning in downstream tasks. A promising direction, grounded in human development, investigates agents that learn by setting and pursuing their own goals. The core challenge lies in how to effectively generate, select, and learn from such goals. Our focus is on broad distributions of downstream tasks where solving every task zero-shot is infeasible. Such settings naturally arise when the target tasks lie outside of the pre-training distribution or when their identities are unknown to the agent. In this work, we (i) optimize for efficient multi-episode exploration and adaptation within a meta-learning framework, and (ii) guide the training curriculum with evolving estimates of the agent's post-adaptation performance. We present ULEE, an unsupervised meta-learning method that combines an in-context learner with an adversarial goal-generation strategy that maintains training at the frontier of the agent's capabilities. On XLand-MiniGrid benchmarks, ULEE pre-training yields improved exploration and adaptation abilities that generalize to novel objectives, environment dynamics, and map structures. The resulting policy attains improved zero-shot and few-shot performance, and provides a strong initialization for longer fine-tuning processes. It outperforms learning from scratch, DIAYN pre-training, and alternative curricula. Code is available at: https://github.com/Octavio-Pappalardo/ulee-jax

21.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Time-dependent averages of a critical long-range stochastic heat equation

arXiv:2411.09058v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the time-dependent spatial averages of a critical stochastic partial differential equation, namely the stochastic heat equation in dimension $d\geq 3$ with noise white in time and colored in space with covariance kernel $\|\cdot\|^{-2}$. The solution to this SPDE is a singular measure and was constructed by Mueller and Tribe in [MT04]. We show that the time-dependent spatial averages of this SPDE over a ball of radius $R$ at time $t$ have different limits under different space-time scales. In particular, when $t\ll R^2$, the central limit theorem holds; when $t=R^2$, the spatial average is a non-Gaussian random variable; when $t\gg R^2$, the spatial average becomes extinct.

22.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

On the Singular Control of a Diffusion and its Running Infimum or Supremum

arXiv:2501.17577v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study a class of singular stochastic control problems for a one-dimensional diffusion $X$ in which the performance criterion to be optimised depends explicitly on the running infimum $I$ (or supremum $S$) of the controlled process. We introduce two novel integral operators that are consistent with the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation for the resulting two-dimensional singular control problems. The first operator involves integrals where the integrator is the control process of the two-dimensional process $(X,I)$ or $(X,S)$; the second operator concerns integrals where the integrator is the running infimum or supremum process itself. Using these definitions, we prove a general verification theorem for problems involving two-dimensional state-dependent running costs, costs of controlling the process, costs of increasing the running infimum (or supremum) and exit times. Finally, we apply our results to explicitly solve an optimal dividend problem in which the manager's time-preferences depend on the company's historical worst performance.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Evolving Programmatic Skill Networks

arXiv:2601.03509v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study continual skill acquisition in open-ended embodied environments where an agent must construct, refine, and reuse an expanding library of executable skills. We introduce the Programmatic Skill Network (PSN), a framework in which skills are executable symbolic programs forming a compositional network that evolves through experience. PSN defines three core mechanisms instantiated via large language models: (1)~\opreflect for structured fault localization over skill compositions, (2)~progressive optimization with maturity-aware update gating that stabilizes reliable skills while maintaining plasticity for uncertain ones, and (3)~canonical structural refactoring under rollback validation that maintains network compactness. We further show that PSN's learning dynamics exhibit structural parallels to neural network training. Experiments on MineDojo and Crafter demonstrate robust skill reuse, rapid adaptation, and strong generalization across open-ended task distributions.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

T2S: A Rehearsal-Based Approach for Extraction-Resistant Model Watermarking

arXiv:2606.11698v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Model watermarking safeguards AI model intellectual property by embedding distinctive knowledge that induces unique behavioral signatures. The primary technical challenge lies in ensuring watermark robustness against various post-processing attacks on the watermarked model. Model extraction attacks emerge as the most severe threat, where adversaries exploit prediction outputs to train surrogate models that illegally replicate the original model's functionality. In this work, we propose a rehearsal-based watermark embedding framework to enhance the robustness of model watermarks against model extraction attacks. By simulating the extraction process, our method leverages the loss of a simulated stolen model on a trigger set as a training signal to fine-tune the watermark knowledge within the target model. This fine-tuning step encourages the watermark to be embedded in a way that boosts transferability, thereby increasing its chances of persisting and remaining detectable in stolen models. Comprehensive experiments conducted under diverse settings demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves the robustness of model watermarks against both model extraction and subsequent watermark removal attacks.

25.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Hierarchical Random Measures without Tables

arXiv:2505.02653v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The hierarchical Dirichlet process is the cornerstone of Bayesian nonparametric multilevel models. Its generative model can be described through a set of latent variables, commonly referred to as tables within the popular restaurant franchise metaphor. The latent tables simplify the expression of the posterior and allow for the implementation of Gibbs sampling algorithms to approximately draw posterior samples. However, managing their assignments can become computationally expensive, especially as the size of the dataset and the number of levels increase. In this work, we identify a prior for the concentration parameter of the hierarchical Dirichlet process that (i) induces a quasi-conjugate posterior distribution, and (ii) removes the need for tables, leading to more interpretable expressions for the posterior, with both a scalable and an exact algorithm to sample from it. Remarkably, this construction extends beyond the Dirichlet process, leading to a new framework for defining normalized hierarchical random measures and a new class of algorithms to sample from their posteriors. The key analytical tool is the independence of multivariate increments, that is, their representation as completely random vectors.