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01.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Sharp One-Dimensional Sub-Gaussian Comparison in Convex Order

Authors:

arXiv:2604.26819v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We prove that any random variable $X$ whose moment generating function is point-wise upper bounded by that of $ G \sim \mathcal{N}(0,1) $ must be dominated by $ G/\mathbb{E}[|G|] $ in convex order, meaning $ \mathbb{E}[f(X)] \le \mathbb{E}[f(G/\mathbb{E}[|G|])] $ for all convex $f$. This is sharp as witnessed by $ X \sim \mathrm{Unif}(\{-1,1\}) $ and $ f(x) = |x| $.

02.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Impossibility of superluminal signalling rules out causal loops in conical spacetimes

arXiv:2606.20476v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In PRL 129, 110401 it was shown that it is theoretically possible to have operationally detectable causal loops without violating the principle of no superluminal signalling (NSS) in (1+1)-Minkowski spacetime. Whether or not such causal loops are also possible in $d > 1$ spatial dimensions, has remained a key open question. We resolve this question by showing that in a wide class of "conical" spacetimes, including Minkowski with d > 1, NSS does rule out all operationally detectable causal loops, in classical, quantum and post-quantum theories. This establishes that the relationship between the relativistic principles of NSS and no causal loops depends inherently on the geometry of spacetime.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

BrainAgent: A Large Language Model-Driven Multi-Agent Framework for Autonomous Brain Signal Understanding

arXiv:2606.25400v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) and brain signal understanding are pivotal for clinical health and next-generation interactions. Despite this significance, its widespread adoption in real-world scenarios remains restricted, primarily because current analytical paradigms lack sufficient agentic intelligence. First, existing methodologies impose prohibitive technical barriers, requiring extensive specialized expertise. Second, they remain inherently static and task-specific, failing to execute the complex, long-horizon workflows essential for real-world deployment. To accelerate the democratization of brain signal understanding, we draw inspiration from Large Language Models (LLMs) to introduce BrainAgent, an LLM-driven multi-agent framework designed to ground abstract natural language intent into rigorous, executable, and end-to-end processing pipelines. BrainAgent employs a hierarchical architecture where a central supervisor orchestrates specialized sub-agents for adaptive task decomposition and execution. Furthermore, we establish a comprehensive, systematic benchmark for evaluating agentic systems in brain signal analysis. Empirical results demonstrate that BrainAgent effectively automates complex workflows with superior reliability, marking a paradigm shift toward democratized brain signal understanding.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

EvalStop: Using World Feedback to Detect and Correct Reward Overoptimization in Multi-Tenant RLHF Platforms

arXiv:2606.04145v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cloud LLM fine-tuning platforms increasingly serve RLHF workloads, where a learned reward model is optimized as a proxy for human quality. As Gao et al. (2023) showed, this proxy diverges from world feedback (downstream eval metrics) under sustained optimization pressure, a phenomenon known as reward overoptimization. Existing platform schedulers ignore this divergence: non-clairvoyant schedulers optimize JCT without any quality signal, SLAQ-style quality-aware schedulers use training loss (a weaker proxy that drops monotonically through hacking), and classical per-job early stopping requires human monitoring and does not free shared GPUs. We propose EvalStop, a composable scheduling primitive that terminates jobs on k consecutive eval-score declines, releases GPUs, preserves the best checkpoint, and delegates to any base scheduler. We frame scheduler-level early stopping as a detection problem and evaluate it in a discrete-event simulator whose RLHF workload mixes reward-hacking and structurally healthy runs, with ground-truth labels hidden from schedulers. On RLHF-heavy workloads (80% RLHF, 64 GPUs), EvalStop achieves precision 98% / recall 99% / FPR 1.5% while improving JCT by 9% and cutting wasted compute by 22% over SRTF-Est (p

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Editorial Alignment: A Participatory Approach to Engaging Editorial Expertise in LLM-mediated Knowledge Dissemination

arXiv:2606.20258v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The emergence of LLM-driven information services is reshaping the conditions under which public knowledge institutions operate, threatening to absorb the editorial function these institutions exist to exercise. While LLMs offer powerful new affordances for knowledge dissemination, editorial authority is challenged by pretrained LLMs that arrive already aligned with the values and dissemination strategies of their commercial developers. This paper investigates editor participation in re-aligning LLM interfaces to editorial standards through design workshops, in a case study where we design and implement an LLM-enabled encyclopedia interface with a Nordic public knowledge institution. We introduce editorial alignment as a design practice within Participatory AI, framing AI alignment as a design process and positioning the editorial standard as a design artefact that translates editorial practice and values into alignment objectives for technical implementation. Last, we discuss how editorial alignment can create space for ongoing participation and give editors agency in LLM-mediated knowledge dissemination.

06.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Exploiting More Than Symmetry in Variational Quantum Machine Learning

arXiv:2606.20316v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The success of variational quantum learning models crucially depends on choosing parametrizations that reflect the structure of the problem at hand. Symmetries provide one of the clearest such structures: whenever transformations of the input leave the desired outcome unchanged, this invariance should be built into the model rather than discovered during training. However, imposing a symmetry does not by itself determine a useful ansatz. Even within the symmetry-preserving space, one must decide where the trainable degrees of freedom should be placed. In this work, we study this remaining design freedom in equivariant variational quantum circuits. Building on symmetry-based parameter sharing, we disentangle two architectural choices: how much symmetry should be enforced, and which symmetry-respecting interactions should be trainable. Using Tic-Tac-Toe as a fully enumerable and structurally transparent test case, we find that suitable subgroups preserve most of the generalization benefit. By contrast, the dominant gains arise from gates acting directly on decisive task motifs. Thus, symmetry defines the admissible design space, while effective ansatze require an additional task-informed choice of trainable interactions.

07.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Breaking The Pain-Stiffness Cycle- Supraclavicular Catheter Facilitated Rehabilitation Of Post-Surgical Elbow stiffness- A Retrospective Observational Study

ABSTRACT Background: Post-traumatic elbow stiffness is a recognised complication following orthopaedic trauma surgery, occurring in 10-15% of trauma patients sustaining injuries. Pain remains the primary barrier to physiotherapy compliance, with surgical arthrolysis carrying recurrence rates of up to 34%. The supraclavicular brachial plexus block, referred to as the 'spinal of the arm', provides anaesthesia and analgesia to the entire upper limb below the shoulder. A structured non-surgical approach combining continuous catheter analgesia with timed rehabilitation was identified as an unmet need in this patient group. Methods: A single-centre retrospective observational study was conducted on data of patients treated for post-surgical upper limb stiffness between January 2022 and April 2026. Of 30 patients identified, 28 with elbow involvement formed the primary analysis group following exclusion of 2 patients with isolated wrist stiffness and complex regional pain syndrome. Ultrasound- guided supraclavicular brachial plexus catheters were inserted using the Contiplex system. Patients received 0.5% Bupivacaine (10-15ml) for initial blockade, followed by daily top-up doses of 0.2% Ropivacaine(20ml) given 30 minutes prior to structured physiotherapy and CPM sessions for up to 5 days. The primary outcome was change in arc of elbow motion in degrees, measured by the attending orthopaedic consultant using standard goniometry. Results: Complete pre- and post- intervention data were available for all 28 patients. Mean pre-intervention arc of elbow motion was 39.1{degrees}(SD+/-23.2{degrees}), improving to 104.2{degrees}(SD+/- 30.0{degrees}) post-intervention. Mean improvement was 65.1{degrees}(SD+/- 30.6{degrees} ); 95% CI 53.8{degrees} to 76.4{degrees} ; range 10{degrees}-140{degrees} ; paired t-test t=-11.27, p

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

Entropy-Controlled Flow Matching

Modern vision generators transport a base distribution to data through time-indexed measures, implemented as deterministic flows (ODEs) or stochastic diffusions (SDEs). Despite strong empirical performance, standard flow-matching objectives do not directly control the information geometry of the trajectory, allowing low-entropy bottlenecks that can transiently deplete semantic modes. We propose Entropy-Controlled Flow Matching (ECFM): a constrained variational principle over continuity-equation paths enforcing a global entropy-rate budget d/dt H(mu_t) >= -lambda. ECFM is a convex optimization in Wasserstein space with a KKT/Pontryagin system, and admits a stochastic-control representation equivalent to a Schrodinger bridge with an explicit entropy multiplier. In the pure transport regime, ECFM recovers entropic OT geodesics and Gamma-converges to classical OT as lambda -> 0. We further obtain certificate-style mode-coverage and density-floor guarantees with Lipschitz stability, and construct near-optimal collapse counterexamples for unconstrained flow matching.

09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

Are LLMs Ready to Assist Physicians? PhysAssistBench for Interactive Doctor-Patient-EHR Assistance

The most plausible near-term role of medical LLMs is to assist rather than replace physicians, yet current evaluations often test isolated capabilities: clinical knowledge, EHR system interaction, or patient communication. Physician assistance instead requires coordinating these capabilities within the same interaction, where physicians issue underspecified requests, patients describe symptoms ambiguously, and EHR systems demand precise tool use. We introduce PhysAssistBench, a benchmark for interactive doctor-patient-EHR assistance. Built from real MIMIC-IV cases, PhysAssistBench uses a scalable pipeline to construct agentic patients: interactive, record-grounded agents that turn static EHR records into multi-turn clinical scenarios while preserving clinical factuality. PhysAssistBench provides a curated bilingual evaluation set of 1,296 manually reviewed and physician-validated turns. Experiments with leading LLMs show that current models remain unreliable in this setting, which exposes a key bottleneck for clinical LLMs: reliable assistance requires coordination across knowledge, communication, and systems, not isolated gains in any of them.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Revealing Training Data Exposure in Vision Language Large Models via Parameter Gradients

Vision-Language Large Models (VLLMs) trained on massive crawled corpora raise pressing copyright and data-provenance concerns. These concerns are particularly acute in healthcare, where patient medical images paired with clinical reports demand rigorous privacy safeguards. However, existing training data detection methods either fail in cross-modal scenarios or rely on superficial output signals with insufficient discriminative power. We introduce GradAudit, a gradient-based auditing framework that examines internal optimization dynamics rather than treating VLLMs as black boxes. Our approach builds on a key observation: model parameters converge to regions where gradients on training samples become stable and well-aligned, whereas gradients on non-training samples remain noisy and inconsistent. By analyzing these gradient signatures, GradAudit achieves strong separability and detects genuine image-text associations learned during training, not merely individual modality membership. Empirically, across both medical and general-domain datasets, GradAudit substantially outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both pretraining and fine-tuning VLLMs. In a case study employing copyrighted content, we show that existing training data detection methods not only underestimate the extent of unauthorized data usage, but that this underestimation becomes more pronounced as models become more recent and more advanced.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Analytic Torsion and Spectral Gap Capture Persistent-Laplacian Performance

arXiv:2606.16990v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While persistent Laplacians (PL) offer a richer geometric representation of data than persistent homology, utilizing their full eigenspectrum for learning tasks is often hampered by high dimensionality and the ``varying length'' problem across different filtration scales. We propose a compact spectral representation that distills the persistent Laplacian into three mathematically grounded invariants: Betti numbers, the spectral gap, and analytic torsion. Across benchmark datasets including MNIST, QM-3D, and SKEMPI WT, we demonstrate that this reduced feature space captures the essential predictive signal of the full spectrum, and in some cases outperforms it, while significantly reducing computational overhead and preventing the noise introduced by higher-frequency eigenvalues. Our results suggest that these invariants provide a principled, fixed-length interface between spectral geometry and topological learning.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

AP-GRPO: Anchor-Gated Phonetic Alignment with Policy Optimization for Pathological Speech Reconstruction

arXiv:2606.15540v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Pathological speech from patients with neurodegenerative and neuromotor disorders is often acoustically distorted and linguistically fragmented, making pathological speech reconstruction necessary to recover intended textual content from distorted and incomplete speech recordings. Crucially, such recordings are rarely uniformly degraded: some words or short phrases remain reliable and can serve as audible anchors for reconstructing the corrupted surrounding content. We introduce Anchor-gated Phonetic Group Relative Policy Optimization (AP-GRPO), a GRPO framework with phonetic reward that aligns speech language models (SLMs) through audible-anchor preservation and inter-anchor phonetic compatibility to the original speech signal. AP-GRPO consists of: (i) an anchor-gated reward that matches reliable audible anchors in clear regions; and (ii) an inter-anchor phonetic alignment reward that evaluates whether recovered contents are phonetically supported by the corresponding corrupted inter-anchor speech span. Across four disease conditions, AP-GRPO improves faithful speech reconstruction, and the learned anchor constraint automatically adapts to each condition and thus reveals interpretable disease-specific profiles: conditions with severe articulatory degradation require stronger anchor enforcement, whereas milder impairment or linguistically impaired conditions rely more on phonetic alignment for inter-anchor recovery.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Mamba-FSCIL: Dynamic Adaptation with Selective State Space Model for Few-Shot Class-Incremental Learning

Few-shot class-incremental learning (FSCIL) aims to incrementally learn novel classes from limited examples while preserving knowledge of previously learned classes. Existing methods face a critical dilemma: static architectures rely on a constant parameter space to learn from data that arrive sequentially, making them prone to overfitting to the current session, while dynamic architectures continually expand the parameter space, leading to increased complexity. In this study, we explore the potential of Selective State Space Models (SSMs) for FSCIL. Mamba leverages its input-dependent parameters to dynamically adjust its processing patterns and generate content-aware scan patterns without session-wise projector expansion. This enables it to configure distinct processing for base and novel classes, helping preserve existing knowledge while adapting to new ones. To leverage Mamba's potential for FSCIL, we design two key modules: First, we propose a dual selective SSM projector that generates input-conditioned state-space parameters from intermediate features for dynamic adaptation. The dual design structurally decouples base and novel-class processing, employing a frozen base branch to maintain stable base-class features and a dynamic incremental branch that adaptively learns distinctive feature shifts for novel classes. Second, we develop a class-sensitive selective scan mechanism to guide dynamic adaptation of the incremental branch. It reduces the disruption to base-class representations caused by training on novel data, and meanwhile, encourages the selective scan to perform in distinct patterns between base and novel classes. Extensive experiments on miniImageNet, CIFAR-100, and CUB-200 demonstrate that Mamba-FSCIL achieves state-of-the-art performance.

14.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Pathwise integration beyond Young via Faber–Schauder energy spaces

Authors:

arXiv:2606.13331v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We develop a pathwise integration theory based on Faber–Schauder energy spaces. The approach replaces the classical Hölder–Young and finite-variation Young conditions by dyadic summability conditions expressed in terms of Faber–Schauder coefficients. On the normalized interval $[0,1]$, these conditions define Banach spaces $\mathcal{E}^p$, which we call Faber–Schauder energy spaces. For $p,q>1$ satisfying $1/p+1/q\ge1$, we prove that every pair $f\in\mathcal{E}^p$ and $g\in\mathcal {E}^q$ admits a continuous pathwise integral $I_{f,g}$, constructed from dyadic left Riemann sums. We call $I_{f,g}$ the Faber–Schauder integral, and show that it depends boundedly and bilinearly on $(f,g)$ in the corresponding energy norms. The integral satisfies additivity, integration by parts, and a dyadic Young–Loève estimate. It is also the uniform limit of classical Riemann–Stieltjes integrals of finite Faber–Schauder approximations. The Faber–Schauder integral agrees with the classical Young integral whenever the latter is available, but also applies to deterministic and Gaussian examples for which neither the Hölder–Young condition nor the finite-variation Young condition can be verified. In this sense, it provides a Faber–Schauder coefficient-based extension of Young's framework.

15.
Science (Express) 2026-05-21

DNA polymerization activates RNA cleavage of a reverse transcriptase–like antiviral enzyme | Science

Authors: Unknown Author

Defense-associated reverse transcriptases (DRTs) transcribe noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs) for antiviral defense, but the mechanisms of ncRNA-independent DRTs remain unclear. In this work, we show that a single DRT4 mediates RNA-targeting antiphage defense by integrating DNA polymerase, exonuclease, and RNA endonuclease activities. First, through an equilibrium between its DNA polymerase and exonuclease activities, DRT4 senses phage infection, as elevated dNTP levels shift the equilibrium toward polymerase activity, thereby promoting protein-primed single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) synthesis. Second, ssDNA of sufficient length, phage DNA-binding proteins, and deoxyguanosine triphosphate collectively activate an unusual RNA endonuclease activity of DRT4, excising 3′–guanosine monophosphate from both phage and host RNA to terminate infection. These findings reveal a distinctive immune strategy combining nucleic acid synthesis and degradation, expanding the functional landscape of DRTs for new DNA- and RNA-processing technologies.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Demystifying Hidden-State Recurrence: Switchable Latent Reasoning with On-Policy Reinforcement Learning

Latent chain-of-thought compresses reasoning by replacing visible reasoning traces with continuous hidden-state recurrence, but existing formulations are difficult to optimize with standard on-policy reinforcement learning (RL) and hard to interpret causally. Our key insight is that a single pair of explicit boundary tokens can address both issues at once: discrete entry and exit anchors make the latent block compatible with standard on-policy RL, and the same anchors offer a natural foothold for mechanistic analysis. Motivated by this, we propose SWITCH, a switchable latent reasoning framework. The model emits to enter latent mode and to exit. Because the boundaries are ordinary discrete tokens, the GRPO policy ratio is well-defined at every decision point. The same anchors also expose the latent steps to direct probing and causal intervention. We train the model with a visible-to-latent curriculum and a Switch-GRPO objective that propagates gradients through recurrent latent computation. SWITCH consistently outperforms prior hidden-state-recurrence latent reasoning approaches at similar scale. Mechanistic analysis through the boundary tokens further reveals three findings: (i) is a sharply localised, learned switching policy rather than a stylistic artefact; (ii) the latent step it opens performs problem-specific, causally important computation rather than acting as an inert placeholder; and (iii) that computation is concentrated at a single hidden-state transition on entry. Together, these results show that hidden-state-recurrence latent reasoning is both RL-trainable and open to direct mechanistic analysis, including of how on-policy RL itself improves the model from the inside.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

What Does It Mean to Break a Distillation Defense?

arXiv:2606.25059v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Black-box LLMs (accessible only via API) are vulnerable to distillation attacks, in which an attacker queries the model and trains a student on its outputs. A recent line of work proposes output perturbation defenses that modify the teacher's output to reduce student performance while preserving utility for legitimate users. As a relatively new family of approaches, output perturbation defenses lack a shared threat model, making it difficult to compare them, reason about composing them with other attacks, or evaluate their robustness against realistic adversaries. This underspecification matters beyond technical evaluation: when defenses are deployed to protect intellectual property or justify regulatory compliance, an imprecise threat model can create a false sense of security. We propose a threat model framework that describes attackers along three dimensions: a query budget, a data budget, and an interface profile that captures how attackers interact with the API. Using antidistillation sampling as a case study, we show that whether the defense is considered effective depends on the assumed threat model. We argue that future work on distillation defenses, along with any governance or policy frameworks built around them, should explicitly specify and stress-test attacker capabilities along our three dimensions.

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Introducing corpora Hlava Cor and Hlava AD: Human Label Variation in Coreference and Discourse Relations

As previous research on annotator disagreement in discourse phenomena has shown, understanding text coherence varies considerably from one individual to another. To explore this phenomenon, we created two corpora with multiple annotations of Czech texts, accompanied by annotators' explanations of their choices. The first corpus consists of 1,024 contexts annotated in parallel by three annotators. It captures differences in the identification of coreference across various text types and grammatical-semantic categories, including pronouns, full noun phrases, and anaphoric adverbials. The second corpus comprises 512 contexts, annotated in parallel by five annotators, and focuses on identifying discourse relations in attributive and non-attributive constructions. Both corpora achieve a comparable inter-annotator agreement of approximately 60-65%. For coreference annotation, agreement tends to be lower in cases where automatic coreference resolution models disagree, suggesting that when the models disagree, the examples tend to be more difficult or ambiguous for human annotators to interpret. The annotators' comments, both for coreference and discourse relations, further reveal differences in interpretation, varying levels of confidence in text understanding, and individual reading strategies.

19.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

CuMA: Aligning LLMs with Sparse Cultural Values via Demographic-Aware Mixture of Adapters

As Large Language Models (LLMs) serve a global audience, alignment must transition from enforcing universal consensus to respecting cultural pluralism. We demonstrate that dense models, when forced to fit conflicting value distributions, suffer from Mean Collapse, converging to a generic average that fails to represent diverse groups. We attribute this to Cultural Sparsity, where gradient interference prevents dense parameters from spanning distinct cultural modes. To resolve this, we propose \textsc{CuMA} (Cultural Mixture of Adapters), a framework that frames alignment as a conditional capacity separation problem. By incorporating demographic-aware routing, \textsc{CuMA} internalizes a Latent Cultural Topology to explicitly disentangle conflicting gradients into specialized expert subspaces. Extensive evaluations on WorldValuesBench, Community Alignment, and PRISM demonstrate that \textsc{CuMA} achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming both dense baselines and semantic-only MoEs. Crucially, our analysis confirms that \textsc{CuMA} effectively mitigates mean collapse, preserving cultural diversity. Our code is available at https://github.com/Throll/CuMA.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

The Voice Behind the Words: Quantifying Intersectional Bias in SpeechLLMs

Speech Large Language Models (SpeechLLMs) process spoken input directly, retaining cues such as accent and perceived gender that were previously removed in cascaded pipelines. This introduces speaker identity dependent variation in responses. We present a large-scale intersectional evaluation of accent and gender bias in three SpeechLLMs using 2,880 controlled interactions across six English accents and two gender presentations, keeping linguistic content constant through voice cloning. Using pointwise LLM-judge ratings, pairwise comparisons, and Best-Worst Scaling with human validation, we detect recurring directional disparities. Eastern European-accented speech receives lower helpfulness scores, particularly for female-presenting voices. Responses remain polite but differ in helpfulness. While LLM judges capture the directional trend of these biases, human evaluators exhibit significantly higher sensitivity, showing stronger accent-level contrasts.

21.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-24

History estimation in random recursive trees: Pointwise approach via iterated Jordan centralities

arXiv:2606.24465v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the problem of estimating the arrival times of vertices in a uniform random recursive tree from its unlabeled structure. We adopt a pointwise perspective and analyze the distribution of the relative estimation error, and derive tail bounds that are uniform in both the vertex and the tree size. For the ranking induced by Jordan centrality, the probability that the estimate exceeds the true arrival time by a factor $S$ decays on the order of $1/S$, while the probability of underestimating the arrival time by a factor $1/S$ decays exponentially in $S$. We introduce a refined centrality measure whose overestimation tail decays on the order of $(\log S)/S^{2}$, at the cost of a heavier lower tail of order $1/S^{2}$. These results reveal a tradeoff between upper- and lower-tail performance in arrival-time estimation that is invisible to the previously studied risk functional. Nevertheless, the refined centrality measure attains the optimal order of the risk for all its parameter values.

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Modelling the decadal expansion of West Nile virus in Italy: the role of climatic, anthropogenic, and macroecological drivers

Abstract BACKGROUND West Nile virus (WNV) is a growing health burden in Italy. Anticipating human infection risk is hampered by the pathogen's complex ecology, highlighting the need for comprehensive early-warning tools. AIM We aimed to model municipal-level WNV risk in Italy and characterize its decadal expansion in Italy, providing a comprehensive ecological understanding of viral emergence. METHODS We applied a machine learning framework to annual human WNV case data from 2014 to 2024. The model integrated a suite of environmental, socio-economic, and macroecological predictors to generate risk projections. We evaluated the model's performance through multiple validation settings. We also performed an anticipation test for the 2025 epidemic season, using 2024 environmental data to assess the model's predictive accuracy against observed 2025 human cases. RESULTS Our model achieved robust performance (True Skill Statistic > 0.4) and captured WNV progressive expansion from 184 predicted positive municipalities in 2014 to 2,012 in 2024 (an 11-fold increase in 11 years). Seasonal minimum temperature was the primary risk driver, followed by monitoring year and population density, indicating active spatial spread. Environmental suitability consistently preceded clinical detection. Municipalities with cases in 2023-2024 exhibited significantly higher predicted suitability during 2018-2022 than those without cases (average risk 0.58 vs 0.20). Our model successfully identified emerging risk hotspots along the Adriatic coast and southern Italy before the official human spillover of 2025. CONCLUSION Embedding macroecological drivers into WNV risk modelling provides an improved understanding of drivers of rapid WNV expansion. Our model enables proactive risk mapping, surveillance efforts, and targeted public health measures.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Disentangling Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Physics-Informed Neural Networks. Application to Insulation Material Degradation Prognostics

arXiv:2601.03673v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) provide a framework for integrating physical laws with data. However, their application to Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) remains constrained by the limited uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities. Most existing PINN-based prognostics approaches are deterministic or account only for epistemic uncertainty, limiting their suitability for risk-aware decision-making. This work introduces a heteroscedastic Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Network (B-PINN) framework that jointly models epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, yielding full predictive posteriors for spatiotemporal insulation material ageing estimation. The approach integrates Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) with physics-based residual enforcement and prior distributions, enabling probabilistic inference within a physics-informed learning architecture. The framework is evaluated on transformer insulation ageing application, validated with a finite-element thermal model and field measurements from a solar power plant, and benchmarked against deterministic PINNs, dropout-based PINNs (d-PINNs), and alternative B-PINN variants. Results show that the proposed B-PINN provides improved predictive accuracy and better-calibrated uncertainty estimates than competing approaches. A systematic sensitivity study further analyzes the impact of boundary-condition, initial-condition, and residual sampling strategies on accuracy, calibration, and generalization, and the influence of measurement noise on aleatoric uncertainty. Overall, the findings highlight the capability of Bayesian physics-informed learning to support uncertainty-aware prognostics and informed decision-making in transformer asset management by tracking aleatoric and epistemic sources of uncertainty.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

When Do Data-Driven Systems Exhibit the Capability to Infer?

arXiv:2606.11769v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The European AI Act is the first comprehensive regulation of artificial intelligence (AI), setting out extensive obligations, particularly for so-called high-risk and general-purpose AI systems. A key distinguishing feature of AI systems under the AI Act is the capability to infer. Since the AI Act does not clearly define what inference is, there is a gray area for certain data-driven systems. A specific example is credit scoring systems, which are listed by Annex III of the AI Act. At the same time, however, these are often implemented using statistical models for which it is unclear whether they have the capability to infer and thus fall under the AI definition of the AI Act at all. Motivated by statistical learning theory, this work develops a framework for grading different levels of the capability to infer. Based on the AI Act and the Commission Guidelines on the definition of an artificial intelligence system, we analyze which levels constitute sufficient capability to infer within the meaning of the AI Act and where further regulatory clarity is needed. We illustrate the framework by creating two realistic credit scoring workflows and show whether and where inference occurs in them. Our analysis illustrates that not only individual models but the entire data processing workflow must be considered. It also shows that the involvement of human experts during development can have significant influence on the capability to infer. Code can be found at https://github.com/fraunhofer-iais/inference-framework-creditscorecards.

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Cross-Modal Robustness Transfer (CMRT): Training Robust Speech Translation Models Using Adversarial Text

End-to-End Speech Translation (E2E-ST) has seen significant advancements, yet current models are primarily benchmarked on curated, "clean" datasets. This overlooks critical real-world challenges, such as morphological robustness to inflectional variations common in non-native or dialectal speech. In this work, we adapt a text-based adversarial attack targeting inflectional morphology to the speech domain and demonstrate that state-of-the-art E2E-ST models are highly vulnerable it. While adversarial training effectively mitigates such risks in text-based tasks, generating high-quality adversarial speech data remains computationally expensive and technically challenging. To address this, we propose Cross-Modal Robustness Transfer (CMRT), a framework that transfers adversarial robustness from the text modality to the speech modality. Our method eliminates the requirement for adversarial speech data during training. Extensive experiments across four language pairs demonstrate that CMRT improves adversarial robustness by an average of more than 3 BLEU points, establishing a new baseline for robust E2E-ST without the overhead of generating adversarial speech.