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01.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

A Low-Regularity Semigroup Sewing Lemma via Quotient Structures

arXiv:2606.16164v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We develop a low-regularity Sewing theory for the semigroup coboundary $\hat\delta=\delta-a$ associated with a strongly continuous semigroup $S$. Unlike the ordinary low-regularity Sewing problem, the semigroup setting has an intrinsic algebraic non-uniqueness below the threshold $1$, in the sense that solutions are canonical only modulo semigroup cocycles. Accordingly, the natural target is a quotient space rather than an increment space. We identify this quotient structure and construct the corresponding semigroup Sewing map. The construction uses a frozen terminal-time transform, which rewrites semigroup defects, for each terminal time, as ordinary low-regularity Sewing problems on a frozen simplex. This reduction, however, does not by itself produce a genuine semigroup increment; the main additional step is to prove that the frozen solution classes are compatible as the terminal time varies and hence assemble into a canonical quotient class for $\hat\delta$. This yields canonical classes for $0

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

MMLongEmbed: Benchmarking Multimodal Embedding Models in Long-Context Scenarios

Recent advancements have significantly expanded the theoretical context windows of Multimodal Embedding Models (MEMs). However, larger context windows do not necessarily translate into effective comprehension and representation of long-context multimodal inputs, which remains a critical bottleneck for real-world deployment. To address the lack of systematic evaluation in this setting, we introduce MMLongEmbed, the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating MEMs in long-context scenarios. MMLongEmbed comprises four retrieval tasks spanning multiple context-length ranges, covering text, document, and video modalities. Through extensive evaluation of state-of-the-art models, we find that current architectures rely heavily on superficial feature matching and struggle to capture deep semantic and structural dependencies. We further observe that performance degradation varies systematically with context length and key information placement. Moreover, models exhibit substantially different robustness to redundant contextual information across modalities. For reproducibility, the benchmark and code are publicly available.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Artificial Intelligence in Ship Finance: Applications, Opportunities, and a Case Study in AI-Augmented Loan Origination

arXiv:2606.11238v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Ship finance is a data-intensive and document-heavy segment of asset-based lending, requiring the integration of financial, technical, contractual, and regulatory information from heterogeneous and largely unstructured sources. Increasing environmental regulation and ESG reporting requirements are adding further complexity to underwriting and loan-origination processes. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), particularly large language models (LLMs), create new opportunities for processing and analysing such information. This paper reviews potential applications of AI in ship finance, with a particular focus on LLM-based systems for document comprehension, information extraction, and workflow automation. We present ShipFinance.ai, a modular agentic architecture to support loan application workflows in ship finance. The proposed system combines an LLM-based extraction module, financial analysis components, external maritime data services, and a controlled document-generation module with a chatbot interface to support the preparation of standardized financing applications. The paper discusses the key challenges for using such models in production. We argue that AI-assisted systems can support maritime finance professionals in managing increasingly complex information and reporting requirements.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Hierarchical Probabilistic Conformal Prediction for Distributed Energy Resources Adoption

arXiv:2411.12193v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The rapid growth of distributed energy resources (DERs) presents both opportunities and operational challenges for electric grid management. Accurately predicting DER adoption is critical for proactive infrastructure planning, but the inherent uncertainty and spatial disparity of DER growth complicate traditional forecasting approaches. Moreover, the hierarchical structure of distribution grids demands that predictions satisfy statistical guarantees at both the circuit and substation levels, a non-trivial requirement for reliable decision-making. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertainty quantification framework for DER adoption predictions that ensures validity across hierarchical grid structures. Leveraging a multivariate Hawkes process to model DER adoption dynamics and a tailored split conformal prediction algorithm, we introduce a new nonconformity score that preserves statistical guarantees under aggregation while maintaining prediction efficiency. We establish theoretical validity under mild conditions and demonstrate through empirical evaluation on customer-level solar panel installation data from Indianapolis, Indiana that our method consistently outperforms existing baselines in both predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration.

05.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Perceptions of aging well among older adults with heart failure: insights from a qualitative study

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a prevalent and often debilitating cardiovascular condition among older adults, frequently accompanied by multimorbidity, functional limitations, and the need to age in place. Traditional models of successful aging emphasize disease absence and preserved function, yet most individuals with HF live with ongoing symptoms and chronic health challenges. How older adults with HF define aging well, particularly across different socioeconomic contexts, remains underexplored. Objectives: To explore how older adults with HF conceptualize aging well and to identify perceived facilitators and barriers across more and less resourced New York City neighborhoods. Methods: We conducted semi-structured interviews with 20 adults diagnosed with HF residing in Manhattan and Brooklyn neighborhoods classified by 2019 United States Census data. Interviews were guided by Rowe and Kahn's model. Transcripts were analyzed using an inductive-deductive thematic approach and interpreted in alignment with the Healthy People 2030 framework. Results: Participants had a mean age of 69 years; 50% identified as Black and 50% were women. Despite functional limitations, 65% reported aging well. Five themes emerged: maintaining physical function, maintaining cognitive function, sustaining social relationships, avoiding pain, and promoting overall well-being. Avoiding pain and promoting well-being extended beyond traditional models. Neighborhood context shaped priorities, with financial stability emphasized in more affluent areas and social cohesion prioritized in less affluent communities. Conclusions: Older adults with HF frequently perceive themselves as aging well despite chronic illness, reframing successful aging beyond disease avoidance. These findings support a patient-centered, place-informed model of aging well with implications for healthcare delivery and policy.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

If LLMs Have Human-Like Attributes, Then So Does Age of Empires II

Much research has been carried out on large language models (LLMs) and LLM-powered agentic workflows. However, many works within the field state emergence of, ascribe to, or assume, generalised anthropomorphic attributes to them (e.g., morality or understanding of natural language). Our goal is not to argue in favour or against the existence of these attributes, but to point out that these conclusions could be incorrect. For this we build and train a simple neural network on the videogame Age of Empires II, and note that any entity in a sufficiently-powerful substrate, such as LEGO or the Greater Boston Area, could also present such attributes. Hence, the purported anthropomorphic attributes of LLMs are empirically non-unique: although some properties (e.g., responses to prompts) could remain invariant, others, such as the interpretation of their perceived behaviour, might change with the substrate. Thus, any empirically-grounded discussion on these attributes requires explicit measurement criteria; otherwise the interpretation is left to the representation. We then show that assuming that these attributes exist or not in a system, independent of the substrate and in a generalised way, leads to either circular or uninformative conclusions. This is regardless of the experimenter's viewpoint on the subject, or whether the outcome shows existence or non-existence. Finally we propose a 'null' assumption, where one assumes LLM non-uniqueness instead of assuming anthropomorphic attributes to set up an experiment, along with examples of it. We also discuss potential objections to our work, briefly survey the field, and prove that Age of Empires II is functionally- and Turing-complete.

07.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-11

Daily briefing: Deep-sea whale graveyard is a treasure trove of fossils

Authors:

Researchers have uncovered more than 400 fossilized whale bones in an ocean-floor chasm. Plus, the working lives of scientists, in pictures, and how AI could slow the pace of research publication for the better. Researchers have uncovered more than 400 fossilized whale bones in an ocean-floor chasm. Plus, the working lives of scientists, in pictures, and how AI could slow the pace of research publication for the better.

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Objective Quality Assessment of Point Clouds Using Multi-scale Implicit Structural Similarity

The unstructured and irregular nature of points poses a significant challenge for accurate point cloud quality assessment (PCQA), particularly in establishing accurate perceptual feature correspondence. To tackle this, we propose the Multi-scale Implicit Structural Similarity Measurement (MS-ISSM). Unlike traditional point-to-point matching, MS-ISSM utilizes radial basis function (RBF) to represent local features continuously, transforming distortion measurement into a comparison of implicit function coefficients. This approach effectively circumvents matching errors inherent in irregular data. Additionally, we propose a ResGrouped-MLP quality assessment network, which robustly maps multi-scale feature differences to perceptual scores. The network architecture departs from traditional flat multi-layer perceptron (MLP) by adopting a grouped encoding strategy integrated with residual blocks and channel-wise attention mechanisms. This hierarchical design allows the model to preserve the distinct physical semantics of luma, chroma, and geometry while adaptively focusing on the most salient distortion features across High, Medium, and Low scales. Experimental results on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that MS-ISSM outperforms state-of-the-art metrics in both reliability and generalization. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ZhangChen2022/MS-ISSM.

09.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-24

The mutational landscape of STING-induced immunity

Authors:

Stimulator of interferon genes (STING) is an evolutionary conserved immune signalling protein with key roles in host defence, cancer, senescence and inflammation1–3. Downstream of STING, type I interferon, inflammatory cytokine signalling and non-canonical autophagy are governed by a multilayered mechanism integrating ligand-induced structural transitions, protein–protein interactions and coordinated intracellular trafficking4–13. Despite its central role in immunity and relevance as therapeutic target14, the sequence elements that govern STING (in)activation in cells remain incompletely understood. Here we developed a massively parallel assay to systematically chart the sequence-function landscape of STING. Profiling thousands of single amino-acid variants, we identified structural and functional determinants that shape the immunostimulatory capacity of STING and its ability to translate ligand recognition into distinct signalling outputs. Cryogenic-electron microscopy structures of select STING hyperactive variants revealed new regulatory principles dictating conformational transition from inactive to signalling-competent states of STING. Mutational effects are widespread across the functional landscape and can sensitize STING towards the natural ligand 2′3′-cGAMP15–18 or decouple interferon induction from non-canonical autophagy, demonstrating a diversity of possible responses that can be accessed through single point substitutions. Finally, our data showed the clinical and evolutionary relevance of naturally occurring STING protein variants. Collectively, these findings define molecular principles that tune STING activity and chart the landscape of its functional potential across immune contexts. A massively parallel assay systematically charts the sequence-function landscape of the STING signalling protein, and the findings define molecular principles that tune STING activity and show its functional potential across immune contexts.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Adaptive Nucleus Truncation for Long-Form Reasoning

arXiv:2606.13982v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sampling plays an important role in long-form language-model reasoning. Over thousands of decoding steps, small changes in the candidate token set can compound into different reasoning trajectories, stability profiles, and final answers. Existing truncation methods such as top-$p$, min-$p$, and fixed top-$n\sigma$ sampling improve over unrestricted sampling, but they rely on fixed thresholds that cannot adapt to changes in entropy, task difficulty, training stage, or generation budget. We introduce Adaptive Nucleus Truncation Sampling (ANTS), which extends top-\(n\sigma\) sampling from a fixed decoding rule into an adaptive rollout-control mechanism for long-form generation. ANTS selects standardized neighborhoods around the maximum logit before temperature scaling, adapts the truncation width using an entropy-conditioned controller, and retains a no-truncation fallback arm to stabilize training when truncation becomes unsafe. On a 33B-total / 4B-active sparse Mixture-of-Experts reasoning model, ANTS improves average performance over percentage-based benchmarks by +1.9, +3.8, and +5.2 points at 8K, 16K, and 32K generation budgets, respectively. The strongest gains appear on instruction following and mathematical reasoning, with IFBench improving by more than 10 points at 32K and AIME 2025 improving by 7 points. Code generation reveals an important budget interaction. On Codeforces, ANTS trails the baseline at 8K, but reverses this gap and substantially improves ELO at 16K and 32K. These results suggest that sampler design should be treated not just as a decoding hyperparameter, but as part of how we stabilize and scale long-budget reasoning.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Limits of spectral learning under noise

arXiv:2606.13067v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Learning functional relationships from noisy data is a central problem in scientific inference. Spectral methods approximate unknown functions by expanding them in a basis and estimating the corresponding coefficients from data, but the stability of these coefficients under noise remains poorly understood. Here we study supervised regression with additive label noise using sparse spectral representations across multiple bases and dimensions. We show that noise induces a predictable drift in the learned coefficient vector whose magnitude depends on the effective number of active spectral modes. After whitening the empirical feature geometry, we derive a closed-form expression for the overlap between noisy and noiseless coefficient vectors, revealing a universal degradation curve governed by a single intrinsic noise scale. Numerical experiments across Fourier, Legendre, Bessel, and Haar bases confirm the theoretical prediction. The results demonstrate that spectral learning exhibits a fundamental noise threshold beyond which coefficient estimates become unstable, placing intrinsic limits on recovering functional structure from noisy data.

12.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Qwen-RobotWorld Technical Report: Unifying Embodied World Modeling through Language-Conditioned Video Generation

We introduce Qwen-RobotWorld, a language-conditioned video world model for embodied intelligence. With natural language as a unified action interface, it predicts physically grounded future visual trajectories from current observations across robotic manipulation, autonomous driving, indoor navigation, and human-to-robot transfer. This unified formulation provides three promising application directions: synthetic data generation for policy training augmentation, scalable virtual environments for policy evaluation, and language-guided planning signals for downstream robot control. This is achieved through a three-part design: a) Double-Stream MMDiT with MLLM Action Encoding, where a 60-layer double-stream diffusion transformer couples frozen Qwen2.5-VL semantics with video-VAE latents through layer-wise joint attention; b) Embodied World Knowledge (EWK), an 8.6M video-text corpus (200M+ frames) with action-language mapping over 20+ embodiments and 500+ action categories; and c) General+Expert Progressive Curriculum, a two-stage training strategy that first learns general visual priors and then injects embodied specialization under a shared language interface. Extensive results show strong competitiveness: ranks 1st overall on EWMBench and DreamGen Bench, outperforms all open-source models on WorldModelBench and PBench. Additional zero-shot analyses on RoboTwin-IF benchmark further support robust generalization and multi-view consistency.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Unsupervised Causal Abstractions Discovery

arXiv:2606.19594v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal abstractions formalize when a high-level structural causal model (SCM) captures the interventional behavior of a lower-level SCM. Existing applications of this notion largely follow a hypothesis-testing paradigm: an expert proposes a candidate high-level model and then evaluates if the low-level system implements it. We study the complementary problem of learning a high-level model directly from low-level measurements. Our contributions leverage hypotheses from low-rank causal discovery, and can be summarized as follows: (1) we show that observations generated by a low-rank graph induce latents that form a causal abstraction, (2) we provide identifiability results about these latents, and (3) we propose a practical objective to learn this high-level SCM.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

An Empirical Investigation of Pre-Trained Deep Learning Model Reuse in the Scientific Process

arXiv:2603.13584v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deep learning has achieved recognition for its impact within natural sciences, yet the prohibitive financial and technical cost of training models from scratch inhibit adoption. Following software engineering community guidance, natural scientists are reusing pre-trained deep learning models (PTMs) to amortize these costs. While prior works recommend PTM reuse patterns, we present the first empirical study of PTM reuse patterns in the natural sciences, quantifying the utilization and impact of PTM reuse within the scientific process across 17,718 peer reviewed, open access papers. Our results show that "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology" has outpaced other natural scientific fields in PTM reuse, "adaptation" reuse is the most prevalent PTM reuse pattern identified across all natural science fields, and the "testing" stage of the scientific process has been most impacted by PTM integration.

15.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-18

ScriptManager: a platform for scalable and reproducible high-resolution analysis of genomics datasets

Background: The growing diversity of genomic and epigenomic assays has driven a parallel expansion in data formats, analysis workflows, and figure-generation tools. However, tools for analyzing data and assembling publication-quality figures are often specialized to a specific assay, dramatically limiting their interoperability and reproducibility. Results: We present the v1.0 release of ScriptManager, a Java-based framework for modular and reproducible analysis and visualization workflows of genomics and epigenomics data. Unlike existing tools specialized for individual assay types, ScriptManager provides a unified and extensible framework for cross-assay visualization and workflow reproducibility. The v1.0 release adds novel analytical modules, GUI session logging, automated unit and integration testing, tutorials, and expanded documentation. It also integrates with the broader reproducibility ecosystem through Singularity containers, Anaconda packaging, and Galaxy XML wrappers. We demonstrate ScriptManager's TagPileup scaling from local single-core execution to a 10,305-job analysis distributed across the Open Science Grid (OSG), with the full workload completing in

16.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Markov property and path regularity for the solutions to SPDEs driven by cylindrical-martingale valued measures

arXiv:2606.12381v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper we prove the Markov property for the solution to stochastic partial differential equations driven by a cylindrical orthogonal martingale-valued measure. We assume our coefficients are time-dependent and satisfy some growth and Lipschitz conditions. We also prove that for time-independent coefficients and under mild assumptions on the cylindrical orthogonal martingale-valued measure, the solutions to our stochastic partial differential equations are Feller. Finally, in the case that the $C_{0}$-semigroup is quasi-contraction, we show that the solution to our stochastic partial differential equation possesses a càdlàg version.

17.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Mach's principle in atomic transitions

arXiv:2606.11608v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We investigate the atomic transition probabilities in atom-mirror set-ups that are in circular motion. In one scenario, the atom is in circular motion inside a static cylindrical mirror. In the other scenario, the cylindrical mirror rotates around its central axis while the atom remains static. We report structural similarity in the atomic transition probabilities between these two cases – these probabilities are equivalent upon interchanging the field frequencies between the two scenarios. We interpret such an observation as a semi-classical phenomenon analogous to the classical Mach's principle.

18.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-18

Metrics for Evaluating Biological AI Model Predictive Accuracy at the Data-Substrate Level

Authors:

Reports in the biological literature disagree on whether a given model can predict a biological outcome from a given data sample — one study finding a model capable, another, on the same kind of data, finding it is not. This is particularly a challenge in relation to LLMs–where the models are large and opaque, with weights and training data inaccessible.textbf{ }Such disagreements cannot be settled by directly inspecting the model. To address this challenge, we considertextbf{ }an alternative approach: assessing whether the data sample is adequate to support the prediction asserted. For a given dataset, its substrate — the underlying structure of the data — determines what any model can recover, independent of architecture or capacity. At the same time, predicting the present state of a biological process and predicting the direction of its future change are different tasks; the second is supportable among AI models only where the data encode direction as determinable from the state — a property we call encoding — and is unsupportable where the same observed state precedes change in opposite directions — a property we call non-identifiability, in the informational rather than the statistical sense. We introduce two generic metrics, Predictive Blindness Risk (PBR) and Prediction Indeterminacy Measure (PIM), that evaluate a data substrate for predictive accuracy directly — without access to model weights, architecture, or training data — and locate the regions of a data substrate where a predictive claim can be supported and where it cannot. Using human biological subjects, we employ the Yale Brain Metastases Longitudinal Data (1,430 human subjects; 11,892 MRI studies; four sequences) and show that direction of change was non-identifiable across regions encompassing the majority of transitions; a nonlinear AI model gained essentially nothing over majority-direction prediction there while recovering direction near-perfectly where the state encoded it; and model accuracy tracked data-substrate resolvability continuously (Spearman {rho} = -0.95 to -1.00). The metrics adjudicate, before any model is trusted and from the data alone, where claims of predictive accuracy — of state, or of the law of change — can be supported.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

An XAI View on Explainable ASP: Methods, Systems, and Perspectives

arXiv:2601.14764v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Answer Set Programming (ASP) is a popular declarative reasoning and problem solving approach in symbolic AI. Its rule-based formalism makes it inherently attractive for explainable and interpretive reasoning, which is gaining importance with the surge of Explainable AI (XAI). A number of explanation approaches and tools for ASP have been developed, which often tackle specific explanatory settings and may not cover all scenarios that ASP users encounter. In this survey, we provide, guided by an XAI perspective, an overview of types of ASP explanations in connection with user questions for explanation, and describe their coverage by current theory and tools. Furthermore, we pinpoint gaps in existing ASP explanations approaches and identify research directions for future work.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

DuoBench: A Reproducible Benchmark for Bimanual Manipulation in Simulation and the Real World

arXiv:2606.11901v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bimanual robot systems substantially expand manipulation capabilities, but coordinating two arms introduces additional control complexity and failure modes that are not well captured by existing benchmarks. We introduce DuoBench, an extensible benchmarking framework for bimanual manipulation policies on the FR3 Duo platform. DuoBench comprises eleven tasks spanning four coordination categories, implemented in simulation and partially reproduced in the real world through reproducible task recipes with 3D-printable assets. In addition, we propose a stage-based evaluation scheme that supports fine-grained semantic failure analysis beyond binary success and provide human-teleoperated datasets for all benchmark tasks. We benchmark several dual-arm imitation-learning and vision-language-action policies in simulation and on real hardware. Our results show that current policies remain challenged by bimanual manipulation, particularly in early interaction stages, parallel arm execution, and transfer between simulation and real-world settings. DuoBench provides a reproducible testbed for diagnosing these failure modes and studying future methods for dual-arm policy learning. Code, datasets, and videos are available at https://duobench.github.io/

21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

FreqKD: Frequency-Decoupled Cross-Modal Knowledge Distillation for Infrared Object Detection

Transfer learning from large-scale RGB foundation models to infrared (IR) imagery through knowledge distillation (KD) remains challenging due to fundamental differences in image formation physics. We investigate the spectral structure of the RGB–IR modality gap and observe that feature divergence is not uniform across spatial frequencies: low-frequency components (shape, layout) show greater cross-modal alignment than high-frequency components (texture, fine edges), which reflect modality-specific characteristics. Based on this analysis, we propose FreqKD, a frequency-decoupled distillation framework that applies asymmetric supervision adapted to each band's cross-modal consistency. The method employs strict mean squared error (MSE) on the low-frequency band to preserve shared structural information and a relaxed log-MSE loss (weighted at 0.1) on the high-frequency band to provide edge guidance while tolerating texture differences. Spectral divergence analysis on 500 paired samples shows that high-frequency divergence exceeds low-frequency divergence by a factor of 2.4x on average across all analysed transformer layers. On KAIST multispectral pedestrian detection, FreqKD achieves 64.1 mAP50, improving 2.4 points over the DINOv2 baseline. The learned representation transfers across datasets (FLIR ADAS, +2.1 mAP50), tasks (MFNet segmentation, +1.85 mean intersection-over-union), and architectures (ResNet-50, +1.0 mAP50). Code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/freq_decoupled_kd-5E5A

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Evidence-guided AI regularization for suicidal ideation prediction in pediatric bipolar disorder

Background: Suicide prediction models in psychiatry often rely on purely data-driven feature selection, which can produce unstable and clinically opaque predictor sets in modest-sized samples. We developed Evidence-Based AI LASSO (EBAL), an evidence-guided regularization framework that incorporates curated clinical evidence into feature-specific penalty factors for interpretable prediction. Methods: Baseline data from 136 youth with confirmed bipolar spectrum disorder in the Greater Houston Area Bipolar Registry were analyzed using 20 candidate clinical predictors. Forty higher-level evidence documents on suicidality and related predictor domains were curated through a structured evidence synthesis workflow and indexed as an auditable evidence corpus. An open-weight large language model assigned feature-specific penalty factors using a prespecified scoring rubric, and these penalties were used to fit a weighted LASSO model. EBAL was compared with a standard evidence-agnostic LASSO using nested leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: For suicidal ideation, EBAL achieved an AUROC of 0.768, balanced accuracy of 0.757, sensitivity of 0.758, and specificity of 0.757. The standard LASSO achieved an AUROC of 0.760 and balanced accuracy of 0.715. EBAL improved balanced accuracy (+0.042, p=0.010) and Matthews correlation coefficient (+0.079, p=0.010), while retaining fewer stable predictors than standard LASSO (11/20 vs 18/20). The strongest positive predictors were current depressed mood, duration of mood disorder illness, and comorbid generalized anxiety disorder. For suicidal behavior, both models performed near chance and retained all candidate predictors. Limitations: The study was cross-sectional, single-site, and modest in sample size, with no external validation cohort. Conclusions: EBAL produced a sparser and more clinically coherent model for suicidal ideation in pediatric bipolar disorder, but did not improve prediction of suicidal behavior. These findings support evidence-guided regularization as a transparent strategy for aligning psychiatric prediction models with prior clinical knowledge while preserving interpretability.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

(Human) Attention Is (Still) All You Need: Human oversight makes AI-assisted social science reliable

arXiv:2606.12848v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for tasks once reserved for trained researchers, including hypothesis generation, specification choice, and drafting conclusions. We argue that the reliability of AI-assisted research depends not only on model capability, but also on how cognitive labour is structured between humans and machines. We study this problem through Human-in-the-Loop Economic Research (HLER), a decision architecture based on pre-commitment, decision sequencing, accountability, and attention allocation. In a pre-specified 2*4 factorial experiment with 280 complete research runs across four datasets, an unconstrained multi-agent baseline produced critical failures in 72% of runs. Using the same underlying model, the same agent decomposition, and identical prompts for the shared reasoning agents, HLER reduced the failure rate to 16% by imposing three architectural commitments: LLMs reason but do not execute data work, data and estimation are handled deterministically, and three human decision gates bind the workflow. Fisher's exact test rejects equality of failure rates at p

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Reward Modeling for Multi-Agent Orchestration

Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) built on Large Language Models (LLMs) require effective orchestration to coordinate specialized agents, yet training such orchestrators is hindered by limited supervision and high computational cost. We propose Orchestration Reward Modeling (OrchRM), a self-supervised framework for evaluating orchestration quality without human annotations. OrchRM leverages intermediate artifacts from multi-agent executions to construct win-lose pairs for Bradley-Terry reward model training. Unlike existing MAS test-time scaling and orchestrator training frameworks that rely on costly sub-agent rollouts, OrchRM operates directly at the orchestration level, enabling efficient and high-performing reward-guided orchestrator training and MAS test-time scaling. OrchRM improves training efficiency by up to 10x in token usage while improving MAS test-time scaling performance by up to 8% in accuracy. These gains consistently transfer across multiple domains, including mathematical reasoning, web-based question answering, and multi-hop reasoning, demonstrating orchestration-level reward modeling as a scalable direction for robust multi-agent orchestration. Code will be available at https://github.com/Wang-ML-Lab/OrchRM.