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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

GeoDisaster: Benchmarking Orchestrated Agents for Operational Disaster Geo-Intelligence

Remote-sensing vision-language models (RS-VLMs) have advanced Earth-observation analysis toward visual interpretation and instruction-following, yet fall short of operational geo-intelligence, which demands tool-grounded spatial reasoning and structured, evidence-backed decisions. We introduce GeoDisaster, an operational geospatial disaster reasoning benchmark with 2,921 verified instances across 43 question types and five task families: deforestation monitoring, multi-hazard analysis, building-damage assessment, flood-safe routing, and Sentinel-1 SAR flood monitoring. Instances integrate heterogeneous EO/GIS evidence-optical and SAR imagery, raster masks, vector geometries, road networks, and exposure layers-spanning hazard detection, damage assessment, exposure estimation, and diagnostic report generation. Ground-truth answers are grounded in executable geospatial workflows and deterministic consistency checks, removing the need for language-model annotation. We further propose an orchestrated multi-agent framework with 18 disaster-oriented tools, where role-specialized agents coordinate through explicit execution contracts, aligned via Role-Contract Expectation Alignment (RCEA): failure-aware supervised fine-tuning combined with contract-grounded reinforcement learning over dense step-level signals. Experiments show that GeoDisaster challenges existing RS-VLMs and agentic systems, while RCEA improves tool use, evidence grounding, state consistency, and decision generation.

02.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Poisson approximation by coupling

arXiv:2605.01894v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: It is well known that a binomial $(n,p)$ can be approximated by a Poisson distribution with parameter $np$. The typical approach in undergraduate probability texts is to show a convergence result for the distribution of the binomial as $n$ goes to infinity and $np$ converges to some $\lambda$. In this note we use instead the coupling technique to show a much more general result. Moreover, we only use elementary results from probability.

03.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Quantum learning with a single-atom sensor

arXiv:2606.15071v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The ability to gather information and to act upon it is at the core of every learning agent. But what is the impact of quantum mechanics on an agent's ability to sense external inputs and to translate them into actions? Here we address the question for a prototype task of learning agency at the quantum scale: rotating a single spin based on information gathered by a single atom. We determine the ultimate performance limit for this task, revealing a fundamental tradeoff between entanglement at the sensing stage and coherence at the action stage: if the single-atom sensor is not entangled with the quantum system serving as the agent's internal memory, then the best learning strategy requires a coherent transfer of quantum information from the sensor to the system that controls the agent's actions. In contrast, if the sensor is initially entangled with the agent's memory, then the transfer of quantum information is no longer necessary. Our results indicate that the quantum properties of the sensor radically affect the optimal way to convert external stimuli into actions, revealing a link between quantum sensing and the behavior of quantum agents.

04.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

An energy-based uncertainty principle and low-energy state preparation

Authors:

arXiv:2603.15495v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Preparing low-energy states of many-body Hamiltonians is a central challenge in quantum computing, quantum complexity, and condensed matter physics. Existing approaches often get trapped in suboptimal states such as high-energy eigenstates or, more generally, low-variance states that resist further energy reduction. In this work, we explore a different perspective: instead of optimizing with respect to a single Hamiltonian, we leverage the fact that many systems admit families of Hamiltonians that share similar low-energy subspaces but differ at higher energies. We show that this redundancy can be turned into an algorithmic resource by establishing an energy-based uncertainty principle, which implies that these Hamiltonians cannot simultaneously admit low-variance states at higher energies. This suggests a simple strategy of alternating energy-lowering steps across such Hamiltonians, which we investigate numerically on several models. We also introduce a sparse variant where the uncertainty principle yields quadratically larger variance at higher energies, leading to more pronounced energy change. Overall, this work suggests a range of open questions at the interface of random matrix theory, local Hamiltonians and low-energy state preparation, aimed at understanding when such approaches are practical and how they can be analyzed rigorously.

05.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Development and Initial Validation of the Quality of life Evaluation in NF2-related Schwannomatosis Trials (QUEST) Assessment

Individuals with NF2-related schwannomatosis (NF2-SWN) experience a complex constellation of physical, emotional, and social symptoms that substantially impact quality of life (QoL). Although disease-specific patient-reported outcome measures are increasingly important for evaluating treatment benefit in clinical trials, existing NF2-SWN QoL measures have limitations in content coverage and sensitivity to change. This study describes the development and initial validation a new disease-specific QoL assessment – the Quality of Life Evaluation in NF2-related Schwannomatosis Trials (QUEST). Using a three-phase, mixed-methods approach, items were generated through concept elicitation interviews with individuals with NF2-SWN and clinicians, prioritized via patient survey data, and refined through iterative cognitive debriefing procedures. The resulting 21-item QUEST assesses the extent to which NF2-SWN has negatively impacted a persons daily life over the past seven days. Initial psychometric evaluation was conducted in an international sample of 174 individuals with NF2-SWN aged 15 years and older (117 women (67%), 158 White individuals (89%)). Exploratory factor analysis supported a four-factor structure, and the total score demonstrated excellent internal consistency and strong test-retest reliability. Evidence of construct validity was demonstrated through hypothesized associations with disease-specific, generic, and domain-specific QoL measures, as well as known-groups validity based on self-reported disease severity and number of prior surgeries. Incremental validity analyses indicated that QUEST explained unique variance beyond existing measures. Together, findings support the QUEST as a reliable and valid disease-specific QoL measure with strong content validity and feasibility for use as a clinical trial endpoint in NF2-SWN.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Classification of Astronomical Spectra Using PCA-Compressed Flux and Inverse-Variance Features

arXiv:2606.13978v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper evaluates a signal-processing and supervised-learning pipeline for classifying SDSS DR17 astronomical spectra into stars, galaxies, and quasars. Each spectrum is represented by its measured flux and inverse-variance information, combining spectral shape with a wavelength-dependent reliability profile. After resampling onto a common logarithmic wavelength grid, the flux and inverse-variance vectors are standardized and separately compressed using principal component analysis. The resulting components are concatenated and used to train several classifiers. The best performance was obtained with the LightGBM gradient-boosting classifier, reaching $94.6\%$ accuracy and $92.1\%$ balanced accuracy on the test set.

07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Toward Generalist Autonomous Research via Hypothesis-Tree Refinement

Scientific progress depends on a repeated loop of exploration, experimentation, and abstraction. Researchers test candidate directions, interpret the evidence, and carry the resulting lessons into later attempts. We study how an AI agent can run this loop autonomously over long horizons. We introduce Arbor, a general framework for autonomous research that combines a long-lived coordinator, short-lived executors, and Hypothesis Tree Refinement (HTR), a persistent tree that links hypotheses, artifacts, evidence, and distilled insights across time. The coordinator manages global research strategy over the tree, while executors implement and test individual hypotheses in isolated worktrees. As results return, Arbor updates the tree, propagates reusable lessons, refines the search frontier, and admits verified improvements. This design turns autonomous research from a sequence of local attempts into a cumulative process in which strategy, execution, and evidence are carried across time. We evaluate Arbor under Autonomous Optimization (AO), an operational setting where an agent improves an initial research artifact through iterative experimentation without step-level human supervision. Across six real research tasks in model training, harness engineering, and data synthesis, Arbor achieves the best held-out result on all six tasks, attaining more than 2.5x the average relative held-out gain of Codex and Claude Code under the same task interface and resource budget. On MLE-Bench Lite, Arbor reaches 86.36% Any Medal with GPT-5.5, the strongest result in our comparison.

08.
Science (Express) 2026-06-04

Long-range extended chains arising from polymerization-driven spontaneous assembly | Science

Authors: Unknown Author

A central challenge for conjugated polymers is to achieve long-range order while remaining solution-processable, which is essential for matching the electrical performance of their counterparts of crystalline inorganic semiconductors. Here we show that n-doped poly(benzodifurandione) (n-PBDF) can undergo polymerization-driven spontaneous assembly (PSA), in which chain growth, chemical doping, and structural ordering are intrinsically coupled, yielding long-range chain extension over hundreds of nanometers. We reveal that the spontaneously formed n-PBDF nanoribbons arise from a self-initiated, convergent growth mechanism driven by cooperative monomer–polymer interactions and stabilized by proton-coupled duplex chains and the polymer’s intrinsic polyelectrolyte character. With long-range extended chains in the nanoribbons, the aligned n-PBDF thin films demonstrate metallic-level conductivity (>10 4 Siemens per centimeter).

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Repeated Shared Access Enables Grokking, but Edit Propagation Depends on an Addressable Memory

Authors:

arXiv:2606.20737v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study factual edit propagation in a controlled synthetic knowledge-graph QA setting using a 2x2 grid that crosses loop recurrence with shared-memory access: a dense transformer (Dense), a looped transformer (Loop), a dense backbone with shared memory (Dense+Mem), and a looped backbone with shared memory (loop-memory coupling, LMC). The two factors dissociate. For learning, both routes to repeated shared access – looped recomputation and repeated memory rereading – cross the out-of-distribution (OOD) grokking barrier that Dense fails, so repeated shared access is the behavioral regularity, not a specific architecture. For editing, the substrates split along a different axis: applying a single localized factual edit (conditioned on direct success) and measuring 2-hop propagation on a shared pre-edit-correct set, the edit propagates strongly in both memory-bearing cells (LMC 0.78-0.92, Dense+Mem 0.71-0.96) and only weakly in the memory-free ones (Loop 0.04-0.30, Dense 0.00-0.03). The split is along the memory axis, not the loop axis: every memory-bearing seed exceeds every memory-free seed, with no detectable difference between the two memory cells. Crucially Dense+Mem has no recurrence, so the propagating ingredient is an addressable site that an edit can write to and later computation rereads, not loop recomputation; Loop is at best a partial intermediate. The affordance survives coarsening the store (N=128 to N=13): propagation attenuates but the memory/no-memory split persists, so fine granularity buys precision rather than the affordance itself. These results dissociate learning competence from editing affordance – repeated shared access suffices to grok, but edit propagation depends on whether the substrate exposes an addressable memory that the forward computation can write to and later reread, an affordance that loop recurrence provides only partially.

10.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Effects of Josephson Junction Non-idealities on Adiabatic Quantum Flux Parametron Circuits

arXiv:2606.17338v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adiabatic quantum flux parametron (AQFP) gate is a promising approach to scale up the cryogenic microwave electronics for superconducting qubit multiplexed control. However, the performance of these circuits depends on the quality of the Josephson junctions which are ideally superconductor-insulator-superconductor (SIS) type following the ideal sinusoidal relation between current and quantum phase. We demonstrate how the non-sinusoidal current-phase relation in Superconductor-Normal metal-Superconductor (SNS) and weak link (WL) junctions affects the speed, delay, and margin of the AQFP gates. The JJ models are defined in the Keysight ADS simulator using symbolically defined device (SDD) method.

11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

Distill Once, Adapt Life-Long: Exploring Dataset Distillation for Continual Test-Time Adaptation

Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) aims to maintain model performance under evolving target domains by adapting online without labeled data. However, practical deployments often cannot retain the source dataset due to privacy or licensing constraints, and purely source-free CTTA methods tend to become unstable under long-term distribution shift, suffering from compounding self-training errors and catastrophic forgetting. We introduce DO-ALL (Distill Once, Adapt Life-Long), a plug-and-play framework that revisits source information in a compact and privacy-conscious form via Dataset Distillation (DD). Before deployment, DO-ALL performs DD to produce a small set of synthetic distilled anchors that summarize the source distribution. During adaptation, each target sample is matched with its most semantically aligned anchor, which provides a stable reference for various CTTA via source replay, representation alignment, and manifold-smoothing regularization. DO-ALL can be seamlessly integrated into existing CTTA algorithms, consistently improving long-term robustness across CIFAR100-C, ImageNet-C, and the CCC benchmark. This demonstrates the potential of leveraging DD to enable stable and continuous adaptation without retaining raw source data. The code is available at https://github.com/blue-531/DOALL.

12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

On estimating Schatten norm and power distances between quantum states

arXiv:2505.00457v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the computational complexity of estimating the quantum Schatten $\alpha$-norm distance $T_\alpha(\rho_0,\rho_1)$, given $poly(n)$-size state-preparation circuits of $n$-qubit quantum states $\rho_0$ and $\rho_1$. This quantity serves as a lower bound on the trace distance and, for $\alpha > 1$, is interchangeable with its powered version $\Lambda_\alpha(\rho_0,\rho_1)$. For any constant $\alpha > 1$, we develop an efficient rank-independent quantum estimator for $T_\alpha(\rho_0,\rho_1)$ with time complexity $poly(n)$, achieving an exponential speedup over the prior best results of $\exp(n)$ due to Wang, Guan, Liu, Zhang, and Ying (TIT 2024). When $01$, QSD$_{\alpha}$ is $\sf BQP$-complete. 2. For any $1 \leq \alpha(n) \leq 1+negl(n)$, QSD$_\alpha$ is $\sf QSZK$-complete, implying that no efficient quantum estimator for $T_\alpha(\rho_0,\rho_1)$ exists unless ${\sf BQP}={\sf QSZK}$. This $\sf QSZK$-hardness result also extends to the promise problem defined by $\Lambda_\alpha(\rho_0,\rho_1)$ for constant $0

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

KATANA: A Fast, Low-Power Mapping of Kalman Filters onto Edge NPUs for Real-Time Tracking

arXiv:2606.14992v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: State estimation is the closed-loop core of every real-time tracking system, from radar surveillance and counter-UAV defense to autonomous driving and robotics. These deployments run on edge platforms, where defense systems mount on vehicles and drones, and civilian pipelines live on cars and handheld devices. Here, every additional watt of compute erodes mission duration or operational range. Two hard constraints follow: each new measurement must be fused before the next control cycle, and the total compute must fit within a strict battery and thermal power envelope. The Linear and Extended Kalman Filters (LKF, EKF) are dominant estimators on these systems, but today they execute almost exclusively on CPUs, which serialize multi-object tracking (MOT) updates, or on custom FPGA/ASIC accelerators that lengthen design cycles. Contemporary AI-PC SoCs, like the Intel Core Ultra Series 1 and 2, integrate a low-power, data-parallel Neural Processing Unit (NPU). We therefore ask whether the Kalman filter can be mapped onto this existing matrix engine to meet real-time and low-power budgets simultaneously, avoiding a dedicated accelerator and keeping the CPU and GPU free for primary workloads. We present KATANA, an NPU-aware optimization framework delivering the first end-to-end mapping of the LKF and EKF onto a commercial NPU, alongside a cross-platform characterization on shipping AI-PC silicon. KATANA applies three algebraic graph rewrites: subtract-to-add reformulation via a precomputed negative-projection matrix H_neg, static-shape tensor fusion, and block-diagonal batched parallelization, ensuring 100% of operations execute on the DPU matrix engine. On the Series 2, the optimized batched EKF reaches 223.35 FPS at 13.43 W active power, and the LKF reaches 408.73 FPS at 14.05 W, delivering up to a 97.9% reduction in dynamic energy versus the CPU implementation.

14.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-12

Stage-dependent role of NEK7 in the inactive-to-active conformational transition of NLRP3 monomer

Authors:

by Jin Peng, Wenjian Li, Hao Wang, Xiaohui Chen, Manjie Zhang, Bin Sun The NLRP3 inflammasome is a multiprotein complex that primes cytokine production in the innate immune system. The inflammasome activation involves the cage-to-disk transition of NLRP3 oligomers, facilitated by the co-factor NEK7 protein. While NEK7’s role in promoting cage disassembly has been reported, its involvement in the large conformational changes of the NLRP3 monomer during activation remains elusive. Here, by using multi-scale simulations, we uncovered a stage-dependent role of NEK7 in the inactive-to-active transition. In the early stage, NEK7 reshapes the dynamics of the highly unstable inactive NLRP3 monomer to resemble active state, priming the conformational transition. In the middle stage, NEK7 impedes progression by populating an intermediate state farther from the active conformation than the NEK7-free counterpart, and structures in this state exhibit reduced allosteric potential toward activation. In the late stage, NEK7 has negligible impact, as the active conformation remains inherently isolated by a high energy barrier regardless of NEK7 presence. This highlights the critical role of oligomeric assembly in enabling monomeric NLRP3 to complete its conformational transition, in agreement with experiment observations. Our work suggests a multilayered activation mechanism where oligomer-level assembly and monomeric conformational changes are coupled, providing new mechanistic insights into this physiologically essential macromolecular process.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

LLM-as-an-Investigator: Evidence-First Reasoning for Robust Interactive Problem Diagnosis

arXiv:2606.13220v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as interactive assistants for technical problem solving. However, when users provide incomplete descriptions or plausible but unverified explanations, LLMs may prematurely align with these assumptions and propose solutions before collecting sufficient evidence. We refer to this behavior as user-driven sycophancy: the tendency of an LLM to reinforce a user-provided hypothesis instead of testing alternative explanations. This paper introduces LLM-as-an-Investigator, an evidence-first agentic AI methodology for robust problem diagnosis. The approach is implemented through a Solution Investigator Agent, which estimates the ambiguity of an initial problem description, generates candidate hypotheses, asks targeted clarification questions, and updates hypothesis probabilities after each answer. Rather than producing an immediate response, the agent continues the investigation until the evidence makes one candidate explanation stronger than the alternatives. To evaluate the approach, we build a benchmark from solved technical forum threads in mechanical, electrical, and hydraulic domains. We use a three-agent evaluation pipeline in which a Problem-Solution Extractor Agent converts solved threads into structured cases, a Ground-Truth Evaluator Agent simulates the user while hiding the known solution, and the tested assistant attempts to recover the solution through dialogue. The experiments compare standard assistants, reasoning-oriented LLMs, and the proposed investigator-based model across LLM backbones. In addition to diagnostic accuracy, we analyze how standard assistants follow misleading user hypotheses in diagnostic cases. The results show that the proposed approach identifies the problem more accurately than direct prompting and reasoning-only baselines, while its evidence-first protocol helps reduce user-induced conversational bias.

16.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Cortisol Stress Response is Associated with Iron Status in Pregnancy

Background: Iron deficiency (ID) affects up to 40% of pregnant women in the third trimester, even in highly resourced and iron-supplemented populations, with adverse consequences for maternal health and long-term offspring development. Psychological stress may compromise iron status through hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis dysregulation and inflammation, but no study has directly examined cortisol in relation to iron status across human pregnancy. Objective: This longitudinal study examined associations between HPA function and maternal iron status across pregnancy and tested whether IL-6 and CRP mediated the relationship between cortisol and ferritin across gestation. Methods: One hundred sixty-eight pregnant Black women with Medicaid insurance completed up to four laboratory assessments across pregnancy. Salivary cortisol was measured before and in response to the Trier Social Stress Test, yielding basal and reactive cortisol indices. Serum ferritin, IL-6, and CRP were collected at each visit. Trimester-specific regression models examined cortisol reactivity in relation to ferritin; linear mixed-effects models with moderated mediation tested whether basal cortisol predicted ferritin via inflammation. Results: Higher cortisol reactivity was associated with lower ferritin specifically in the third trimester (std. {beta} = -0.197, p = .004). Higher basal cortisol predicted a steeper IL-6 rise across gestation (p = .002), and IL-6 was positively associated with ferritin (b = 0.236, p = .006), consistent with inflammatory iron sequestration. The indirect effect of basal cortisol on ferritin via IL-6 was statistically significant, and higher basal cortisol was negatively associated with cortisol reactivity in the third trimester. No pathway was observed through CRP. Conclusion: Greater cortisol reactivity predicted lower third-trimester ferritin, a pattern that suggests cumulative iron depletion, atypically sustained HPA reactivity in late pregnancy, or both. To our knowledge, this is the first prospective study linking cortisol reactivity to iron status across human pregnancy, identifying maternal stress physiology as a novel target for understanding and addressing gestational iron deficiency.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Sentence-Level Contextual Entrainment in Large Language Models

Contextual entrainment, which is a newly discovered phenomenon in large language models (LLMs), refers to the tendency of a model to assign higher probabilities to tokens that appear in its context. In this work, we extend this phenomenon from the token level to the sentence level by examining the per-token mean log-probability of a sentence instead of the probabilities of individual tokens. We investigate sentence-level contextual entrainment across 26 LLMs from seven families and two datasets, which cover both subjective and objective tasks. We find that sentence-level contextual entrainment exists. This means that the sentences in the prompt (even if they are counterfactual statements) can significantly increase their probability during model inference time. As the model size increases, contextual entrainment gradually decreases. We also find that contextual entrainment is controlled by 2% to 4% of the attention heads. Turning off these attention heads can effectively mitigate contextual entrainment without hurting the model's performance.

18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

The Chandra-Gaia Catalog of Counterparts: Resolving ambiguous Gaia matches to X-ray sources in the Chandra Source Catalog using Machine Learning

arXiv:2606.19329v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present a framework to cross-match sources from the Chandra Source Catalog (CSC v2.1) with optical sources from Gaia Data Release 3. Unlike purely spatial approaches, we use source properties such as magnitudes, colors, and distances to identify true counterparts, detect chance coincidences, and resolve ambiguities when multiple plausible candidates exist. We define a training set of high-confidence matches using NWAY, a Bayesian cross-matching framework that accounts for positional errors and source densities. We train a gradient-boosted classifier (LightGBM) on a variety of features from both catalogs. Of the ~$254$k unique X-ray sources, we find counterparts for ~$113$k sources, of which plausible multiple counterparts are found for ~$7$k. We find no counterparts for ~$20$k sources for which separation-based cross-matching does find a match, and attribute half of these to chance coincidences. We validate the pipeline on the Chandra Orion Ultradeep Project (COUP), where the machine-learning matches reproduce 95% of NWAY cross-matches without using any positional information. We release a catalog of the ~$113$k Chandra-Gaia counterparts, together with ~$7$k alternative matches and ~$20$k ambiguous NWAY associations, supporting future population studies of sources detectable by both Chandra and Gaia. We discuss limitations and provide a generalization of the framework that is applicable in other cross-matching scenarios.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Online Dynamic Batching with Formal Guarantees for LLM Training

arXiv:2606.19989v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern LLM training breaks a core assumption behind offline batch samplers: the true training cost of a sample is only observable after preprocessing, augmentation, templating, tokenization, and multimodal visual-token expansion. Unless one pays for a preprocessing- and augmentation-dependent length cache, batch construction is therefore blind to the quantity that determines padding, memory use, and GPU saturation. We introduce Online Dynamic Batching (ODB), a DataLoader-side drop-in system that moves batch formation to this point of accurate observability while preserving DDP step alignment. We formalize this synchronization requirement as the Distributed Group Alignment Problem and prove deadlock-free bounded termination with default join-mode identity coverage and opt-in non-join sample-quota closure. ODB requires no model, optimizer, or attention-kernel changes and is released as online-dynamic-batching with lightweight trainer adapters. Across public 2B/8B Qwen3-VL runs on UltraChat/LLaVA/ShareGPT4o, ODB improves literal emitted-sample throughput vs. fixed-batch Standard by 1.58-2.51x on single-node Full FT/LoRA and 1.71-3.78x on two-node Full FT, with Standard-comparable quality; production MM-Mix reaches 4.43x. Against GMT/BMT offline token-budget oracles, ODB is within 15% on UltraChat/LLaVA and faster on high-CV ShareGPT4o: 2.24-2.39x single-node Full FT/LoRA and 3.06-3.69x two-node Full FT. Together, ODB occupies the online/drop-in regime for high-heterogeneity LLM fine-tuning: large throughput gains at Standard-comparable quality, formal DGAP guarantees, and no length-cache precompute or kernel rewrites.

20.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-16

Infectious Disease Forecasting via Physics-Informed Machine Learning

Infectious disease transmission evolves as a dynamic process shaped by biological mechanisms, population behavior, and intervention policies, yet public health responses are often driven by lagging indicators. Accurate short- and long-term disease forecasting is essential for the timely deployment of intervention strategies, healthcare capacity planning, and uncertainty-aware, risk-informed decision-making. To address this challenge, three broad classes of forecasting models have traditionally been used: statistical, machine learning, and mechanistic approaches. However, each of these modeling paradigms faces fundamental limitations. In particular, traditional statistical models often lack the flexibility needed to capture complex disease dynamics, machine learning approaches require large, high-quality data streams, and mechanistic models are notoriously difficult to calibrate. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel physics-informed machine learning (PIML) framework for forecasting infectious disease dynamics. Our approach simultaneously forecasts new case and hospitalization counts, along with other key epidemiological quantities such as the time-varying reproduction number. This is achieved through the design of a machine learning model and estimation strategy regularized by a system of differential equations that encode disease dynamics of the SIHR model, thereby bridging the gap between purely data-driven and mechanistic models. We demonstrate the proposed methodology through in-depth numerical studies and an application to COVID-19 data collected in the state of South Carolina.

21.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Quantum Measurement and Continuous Markov Processes

Authors:

arXiv:2606.15958v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: These are the lecture notes for a course on diffusive quantum measuring instruments. They were prepared and delivered at the Perimeter Institute on Mondays and Thursdays, from 2:30 to 4:00 PM, beginning October 27th, 2025 and ending December 11th, 2025. These lectures were recorded and can be found at https://pirsa.org/c25038.

22.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

CORE-BREW: LLR-Based Soft Decoding for Robust Multi-Bit LLM Watermarking

Reliable provenance for LLM outputs requires multi-bit watermarks that remain robust under editing while maintaining strict false-positive control. Existing ECC-based LLM watermarks rely largely on hard-decision decoding, discarding token-level reliability information. We propose CORE-BREW, a Constant-hit-Rate Embedding extension of block-wise BREW for robust multi-bit watermarking. CORE-BREW calibrates the watermark channel by targeting a fixed hit rate p-star, yielding closed-form per-token log-likelihood ratios (LLRs) for principled soft-decision decoding. It supports two detection modes: Strict-Safe, which preserves the bounded-distance designated-codeword acceptance region, and FPR-Calibrated, which uses likelihood-based scoring and lightweight list decoding to characterize the FPR-TPR trade-off. Experiments on open-source LLMs under token-level edits and paraphrasing demonstrate improved low-FPR discrimination and robustness over prior multi-bit watermarking baselines while maintaining comparable semantic quality.

23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

Dual Distribution Estimation for Zero-shot Noisy Test-Time Adaptation with VLMs

While test-time adaptation (TTA) empowers vision-language models to adapt without costly retraining, it remains highly vulnerable to out-of-distribution (OOD) outliers prevalent in real-world applications. This discrepancy motivates Noisy TTA (NTTA), an online task to filter noisy OOD samples on the fly while maximizing in-distribution (ID) classification accuracy. Existing zero-shot NTTA approaches typically rely on test-time discriminative training, leading to overconfident misclassifications and significantly degraded inference efficiency. To address these limitations, we propose a novel framework named Dual Distribution Estimation (DDE), shifting the zero-shot NTTA paradigm from instance-level learning to training-free Gaussian distribution modeling. DDE incorporates two novel modules: Positive Feature Distribution Estimation (PFDE) and Negative Label Distribution Estimation (NLDE). PFDE explicitly models class-wise inclusion and exclusion Gaussian distributions to formulate a calibrated contrastive score, robustly enhancing ID accuracy. In parallel, NLDE improves OOD identification by explicitly modeling the negative label distribution to mine highly discriminative labels, effectively mitigating spurious correlations. Extensive experiments show that on the large-scale ImageNet benchmark, DDE achieves an improvement of 3.70\% in harmonic mean accuracy and reduces the FPR95 for OOD detection by 6.20\%, while ensuring highly scalable and efficient online inference. Furthermore, DDE is zero-shot and training-free, demonstrating remarkable robustness in data-scarce scenarios. Codes are available at https://github.com/ZhuWenjie98/DDE.

24.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Robust Pretty Good Measurement via Hybrid Classical-Quantum Pseudoinverse Approximation and Circuit-Level Realization

arXiv:2606.13150v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pretty Good Measurement (PGM) is a near-optimal strategy for quantum state discrimination, but its practical realization becomes unstable when the ensemble operator is singular or ill-conditioned. We introduce a numerically robust PGM formulation based on the Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse, replacing the standard inverse square root with a threshold-regularized variant that remains well-defined across different spectral regimes. We develop a hybrid classical-quantum framework that combines pseudoinverse-based spectral preprocessing with quantum circuit realizations using block-encoding and spectral-transformation techniques. The framework incorporates support awareness, yielding physically meaningful measurement operators even in rank-deficient cases, and employs oblivious amplitude amplification to improve circuit-level success probabilities. Extensive numerical and circuit-level simulations show close agreement between theoretical predictions and quantum circuit outputs. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets, including ill-conditioned and degenerate scenarios, demonstrate stable discrimination performance where standard PGM becomes numerically unstable. The results establish a practical hybrid classical-quantum framework for robust quantum state discrimination and extend previous circuit-based implementations of the PGM testing stage toward pseudoinverse-aware measurement design.

25.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Readout-Induced Leakage in Superconducting Circuits with Nonlinear Couplings

arXiv:2606.16055v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In superconducting circuits, drive-induced unwanted transitions limit the readout power, thereby constraining readout speed and fidelity. When such transitions excite the qubit into leakage states, they produce correlated errors that are particularly harmful for quantum error correction. Native nonlinear qubit-readout resonator coupling is a promising alternative to conventional linear hybridization because it provides intrinsic Purcell protection and stricter selection rules for multiphoton processes. In realistic devices, however, we show that such a coupling alone neither eliminates nor necessarily suppresses drive-induced transitions. Instead, if not appropriately engineered, these couplings often worsen the situation by introducing additional parasitic processes. Moreover, the rates of these unwanted transitions remain sensitive to the choice of readout frequency, regardless of the coupling mechanism. We demonstrate that readout-induced leakage can thus vary by orders of magnitude even when readout frequencies differ by less than ~7%. Our results establish that the benefits of native nonlinear couplings are realized only through informed device design, including the spectral placement of relevant auxiliary modes and elimination of parasitic ones.