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01.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Excursion Fluctuations and Spectral Universality in Gaussian Fields

arXiv:2606.15630v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the large-scale spatial fluctuations of excursion volumes for a class of smooth stationary Gaussian fields. In the case of Berry's random wave model in dimension $d \geq 2$, we show that the spatial fluctuations for fixed $u>0$ converge to the fractional Gaussian field $(-\Delta)^{-1/4}W$ in the space of tempered distributions $\mathcal S'(\mathbb{R}^d)$, where $W$ is the $d$-dimensional Gaussian white noise. This explains the long-range correlations in the apparent filament structure of the Random Plane Wave model. For a class of smooth planar Gaussian fields whose spectral density has a power-law singularity at the origin, we prove convergence to fractional Gaussian fields with an index determined by the singularity exponent. More generally, the results illustrate that, for stationary random measures, large-scale spatial fluctuations are determined by the behaviour of the spectral measure density exponent near zero.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

AP-GRPO: Anchor-Gated Phonetic Alignment with Policy Optimization for Pathological Speech Reconstruction

arXiv:2606.15540v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Pathological speech from patients with neurodegenerative and neuromotor disorders is often acoustically distorted and linguistically fragmented, making pathological speech reconstruction necessary to recover intended textual content from distorted and incomplete speech recordings. Crucially, such recordings are rarely uniformly degraded: some words or short phrases remain reliable and can serve as audible anchors for reconstructing the corrupted surrounding content. We introduce Anchor-gated Phonetic Group Relative Policy Optimization (AP-GRPO), a GRPO framework with phonetic reward that aligns speech language models (SLMs) through audible-anchor preservation and inter-anchor phonetic compatibility to the original speech signal. AP-GRPO consists of: (i) an anchor-gated reward that matches reliable audible anchors in clear regions; and (ii) an inter-anchor phonetic alignment reward that evaluates whether recovered contents are phonetically supported by the corresponding corrupted inter-anchor speech span. Across four disease conditions, AP-GRPO improves faithful speech reconstruction, and the learned anchor constraint automatically adapts to each condition and thus reveals interpretable disease-specific profiles: conditions with severe articulatory degradation require stronger anchor enforcement, whereas milder impairment or linguistically impaired conditions rely more on phonetic alignment for inter-anchor recovery.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Seeing Before Reasoning: Decoupling Perception and Reasoning for Shortcut-Resilient Multimodal On-Policy Self-Distillation

On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) trains a model on its own rollouts and uses a frozen copy to provide dense token-level targets conditioned on a reference target. This works well for LLM reasoning, but a direct extension to multimodal large language models (MLLMs) can create a shortcut: the privileged target may guide tokens mainly based on the text reference target rather than the image. We propose ViGOS, a visually grounded OPSD framework for MLLM post-training. The student first writes a visual description and then reasons toward the final answer. For valid rollouts, an image-only perception teacher supervises the description, while a privileged reasoning teacher supervises the reasoning and final answer on the same student prefix. A reference teacher is used only for invalid rollouts to recover the output format. Across general vision-language, expert reasoning, visual math, spatial grounding, and visual-language-prior benchmarks, ViGOS keeps the main benefits of OPSD and improves image-grounded behavior in shortcut-prone settings.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

QC-SMOTE: Quality-Controlled SMOTE for Imbalanced Classification

arXiv:2606.24625v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Class imbalance poses a significant challenge in classification, where existing methods such as SMOTE often generate low-quality synthetic samples in regions with noise or class overlap. We propose QC-SMOTE, a quality-controlled oversampling framework that estimates minority sample reliability using a composite neighbourhood trustworthiness score combining local density, safe-level, and isolation from the majority class. Synthetic candidates are generated using an IPQ-guided best-of-K strategy that evaluates midpoint purity and, when required, majority clearance, with allocation guided by sample reliability and boundary informativeness. Generation behaviour adapts across overlap–imbalance regimes, adjusting interpolation range and selection criteria to match local data geometry. Low-quality synthetic samples are replaced with original minority duplicates when neighbourhood purity falls below an adaptive threshold, providing graceful degradation by reverting to duplication in severely noisy regions. Experiments on 30 imbalanced datasets using repeated stratified cross-validation show that QC-SMOTE achieves the strongest average AUC-ROC and Macro F1 among the compared oversampling methods, with particularly clear gains under moderate and severe imbalance. These results demonstrate the importance of quality-aware, geometry-adaptive synthetic sampling for robust imbalanced classification.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

SWE-Future: Forecast-Conditioned Data Synthesis for Future-Oriented Software Engineering Agents

arXiv:2606.18733v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Realistic coding-agent benchmarks often replay public GitHub issues and pull requests, making them vulnerable to overlap with model pretraining, fine-tuning, synthetic-data generation, or benchmark-driven model selection. Fully synthetic tasks avoid direct historical replay, but can drift away from real repository needs. We propose SWE-Future, a forecast-conditioned data synthesis method for future-oriented coding tasks. Given a forecast snapshot at time $T_0$, the method uses only pre-$T_0$ repository evidence to forecast future feature implementation/enhancement, bugfix, and refactor task families. We first validate this forecasting step retrospectively: after forecasts are fixed, later pull requests are used only to measure whether the predicted task families match future repository work. In an 80-repository study, the forecaster achieves 58.1\% future-work relevance under the main semantic matching metric. We then use validated forecast families as conditioning signals to synthesize a 200-task coding-agent dataset across 61 repositories from a task-generation snapshot, rather than replaying the later pull requests used for validation. SWE-Future shows that repository-evolution forecasts can guide realistic, future-oriented coding-task synthesis while reducing direct dependence on historical pull-request replay.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

CREDENCE: Claim Reduction for Decomposition & Enhanced Credibility – Semantic Metrics and Convergence Analysis

Decomposing compound sentences into atomic, verifiable claims is a prerequisite for reliable automated fact-checking. Prior work has relied on token-overlap (Jaccard) metrics that systematically underestimate decomposition quality for paraphrastic claims, and has lacked formal termination analysis for the repair loop. We present Credence, a revised claim decomposition and evaluation framework addressing both shortcomings. Our contributions are: (1) Semantic-F1: we use BGE-large cosine similarity fidelity metric that resolves Jaccard's penalisation and improves downstream fact-checking accuracy; (2) Convergence theorems: we formally characterise four properties of the repair pipeline, establishing that rule-based repair is monotone and finitely terminating under an oracle parser assumption; LLM-based self-repair is provably non-monotone and requires an early-exit guard; (3) Three evaluation benchmarks spanning social-media, encyclopaedic, and news domains for cross-domain generalisation measurement; (4) Multi-model benchmarking across four decomposer models (3.8B-12B) and a closed API model. Experiments on SocialClaimSplit, WikiSplitBench, and ClaimDecompBench show that Semantic-F1 outperforms Jaccard-F1 by +15-32pp. EPR ranges from 0.94 to 1.00 on SocialClaimSplit and WikiSplitBench, while ClaimDecompBench includes lower base EPR cases (down to 0.824) due to harder news-domain constructions, and rule-repair reduces the Atomicity Violation Rate (AVR) by 47-100% relative to the base model without degrading fidelity.

07.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Logical error estimation from syndrome data of surface-code experiments

arXiv:2606.11496v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decoders for quantum error correction (QEC) experiments rely on detector error models (DEMs), which encode, for each error, its probability and the detectors and logical observables it flips. Here we show that estimating DEM event probabilities from experimental syndromes is feasible, avoids independent device benchmarking, and produces useful decoder priors for estimating and reducing decoded logical error probabilities. We evaluate our methods using open-source data from surface-code memory experiments performed on Google's Willow chip, and we carry out analogous surface-code experiments on IBM's \texttt{ibm\_miami} processor. Despite the different physical error scales of the Google and IBM devices, in both cases our estimated DEMs improve logical error probabilities relative to baseline device-informed DEMs, typically at the $5\%-10\%$ level and with larger gains in some IBM cases, without additional calibration circuits, decoder fine-tuning, or supervised fitting to logical outcomes.

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

UtVAA: Ultra-tiny Vision Transformer with Affix Attention for Mobile Image Classification

Vision Transformers (ViTs) have demonstrated strong representation capability in image classification. However, their quadratic self-attention complexity and large parameter counts limit deployment on resource-constrained mobile and edge devices. This paper introduces UtVAA, an ultra-tiny Vision Transformer architecture designed for efficient visual recognition under strict computational budgets. It incorporates a novel Affix Attention block that combines depthwise-pointwise local feature extraction, linear self-attention, coordinate attention for spatial dependency modelling, and a lightweight ternary fusion strategy to integrate local and global representations. In addition, Dilated Bottleneck blocks expand the receptive field using dilated depthwise separable convolutions while maintaining low FLOPs and stable optimisation through residual connections. UtVAA is implemented in scalable Tiny, Medium, and Large variants, with the smallest model containing 204.67K parameters and 53.95M FLOPs. Experimental results on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, PlantVillage-Tomato and SLIF-Tomato datasets show that UtVAA achieves competitive accuracy within a sub-million-parameter regime. Overall, the results demonstrate that transformer-based vision models can be redesigned into ultra-tiny architectures without significant loss in discriminative performance, making UtVAA suitable for mobile and edge deployment. Code is available at https://github.com/romiyal/UtVAA

09.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Distributional Loss for Robust Classification

This paper proposes a novel loss concept for supervised classification tasks. Rather than enforcing a direct mapping from each input sample to a single assigned label, we define an optimization objective over all classifier outputs as a bimodal Gaussian distribution. This softer target formulation implicitly captures class ambiguity, mitigates overfitting, and encourages the learning of more robust decision boundaries, all without requiring additional label information. Experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in robustness, with particularly pronounced gains in low-data regimes, while requiring only minimal modifications to standard training pipelines.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Reasoning as Pattern Matching: Shared Mechanisms in Human and LLM Everyday Reasoning

arXiv:2606.13607v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: When large language models (LLMs) fail to generalize or make haphazard errors in reasoning, it is often taken as evidence that LLMs are not truly reasoning, but rather performing a kind of pattern matching. The implication is that people's behavior does not exhibit the same types of failures because human reasoning uses principled and abstract world models. We evaluate human participants and 25 LLMs on their ability to engage in common-sense reasoning about a variety of everyday situations and observe similar patterns of errors in both people and models. We then identify the set of attention heads driving LLM responses and find that these heads implement a form of pattern-matching. These attention heads allow us to predict seemingly inexplicable reasoning errors in people caused by ostensibly irrelevant prompt details. Taken together, our results suggest that everyday causal reasoning in people and LLMs is more consistent with a form of pattern-matching than with abstract world models.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Understanding Key Features of Time Series Foundation Models from Epidemic Forecasting

arXiv:2606.19560v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Seasonal influenza infects millions of people and causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States each year, making accurate short-term forecasting a core public-health need. Reliable forecasts of epidemic time series can inform vaccination timing, hospital staffing, and resource allocation, yet the comparative behavior of modern forecasting architectures on infectious-disease surveillance data remains insufficiently characterized. We address this gap through a systematic evaluation of regional influenza forecasting using influenza-like illness surveillance and influenza-associated hospitalization time series under both temporal and spatial generalization settings for 1-4-week-ahead prediction. We compare classical neural network architectures, numerical transformer-based models, pretrained time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasting approaches. Across tasks, we demonstrate that a mixture-of-experts model that fuses multiple pretrained forecasters achieves the strongest overall performance, indicating that heterogeneous pretrained representations provide complementary predictive information. Our results further show that numerical transformer-based models produce reliable forecasts, while pretraining provides the largest gains at longer horizons, particularly when the pretraining domain is mechanistically aligned with influenza dynamics. In contrast, LLM-based time series methods underperform relative to numerical forecasters in this setting. Finally, we examine hospitalization information as both an auxiliary covariate and a pretraining source. Hospitalization signals provide complementary improvements in selected settings and clarify when additional surveillance streams enhance the robustness of multi-horizon forecasting. These findings provide actionable guidance on model selection, pretraining strategy, and auxiliary-signal use for influenza preparedness.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

A Geometric Profile of Semantic Information in Text: Frame-Conditional Uniqueness and a Trade-Off Triangle for Scalar Summaries

How much meaning does a text carry? Shannon's theory measures uncertainty over symbols and is intentionally indifferent to meaning, while pairwise metrics such as BERTScore compare two texts rather than characterizing one. We develop a geometric framework that measures semantic content from the structure of a text's sentence embeddings. The framework has three parts. First, within a fixed embedding and baseline, six natural axioms uniquely determine a scalar measure up to scale, a frame-conditional uniqueness theorem. The resulting scalar is empirically too coarse, motivating a richer representation. Second, we propose a three-coordinate semantic profile capturing novelty (displacement from generic discourse), breadth (diversity of distinct ideas), and integration (connectedness among them), together with a discrete minimal unit (the semantic quantum) whose resolution is fixed by a clustering threshold $\tau$. Third, we prove a no-go theorem: no scalar summary of the profile can simultaneously satisfy analytic stability under paraphrase and concatenation, ordinal robustness across text scales, and cross-representation comparability. We exhibit two practical scalars, $S_{\mathrm{minmax}}$ and $S_{\mathrm{rank}}$, each occupying a distinct corner of this trade-off triangle. Validation across 23 synthetic categories, 5 Project Gutenberg novels, and 3 embedding models confirms the trade-off. The recommended rank-normalized configuration passes 25 of 28 ordinal checks as point estimates (21 of 28 after Benjamini-Hochberg correction), outperforming seven baselines including unigram entropy and a BERTScore-based novelty signal. A separate variational result connects the breadth coordinate to the log-determinant of a determinantal point process (Spearman $\rho = 0.985$ over 507 Gutenberg chapters), giving an optimization-theoretic foundation for breadth.

14.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Twisted (co)homology of non-orientable Weyl semimetals

arXiv:2511.22303v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The quasi-particle excitations in Weyl semimetals, known as Weyl fermions, are usually forced to emerge in charge-conjugate pairs by the Nielsen–Ninomiya theorem. When the Brillouin zone is non-orientable, this constraint is replaced by a $\mathbb{Z}_2$ charge cancellation, as a result of the chirality becoming ill-defined on such manifolds; this results in configurations with seemingly non-zero total chirality. Here, we set out to explain this behaviour from a purely topological perspective, and provide a classification of non-orientable Weyl semimetal topology in terms of exact sequences of twisted (co)homology groups. This leads to several discoveries of direct physical importance: in particular, we recover the $\mathbb{Z}_2$ charge cancellation in a coordinate-independent way, allowing meaningful limits to be set on its physical interpretation. A detailed discussion is provided on a specific Klein bottle-like topology induced by a momentum-space glide symmetry, including a full review of the insulating and semimetallic invariants of the system and a classification of the surface states on the non-orientable boundary. Beyond this, we provide a complete survey of all possible non-orientable Brillouin zones and their associated invariants, and extend our formalism into the realm of non-Hermitian topological physics and inversion-symmetric Weyl semimetals. Our work exemplifies the vast potential of fundamental mathematical descriptions to not only aid the corresponding physical intuition, but also predict novel and hitherto overlooked phenomena of great relevance throughout the physics research forefront.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Surprise-Guided MergeSort: Budget-Efficient Human-in-the-Loop Ranking via Adaptive Comparison Scheduling

arXiv:2606.15623v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Pairwise comparison is the gold standard for subjective ranking tasks; however, exhaustive annotation requires a massive number of human comparisons ($O(n^2)$). While sorting-based methods have reduced this burden to $O(n\log n)$, they still require expensive human judgment for every single comparison. To further improve annotation efficiency, we propose leveraging a Vision-Language Model (VLM) not as an annotator replacement, but as a question prioritizer to identify which comparisons genuinely require human judgment. The proposed Surprise-Guided MergeSort (SGS) framework achieves this through three integrated components: (1) a bottom-up MergeSort scheduler that structures comparisons and exploits transitivity, (2) a composite Surprise Scorer – combining position-bias-cancelled VLM confidence, Elo gap, and vote entropy – to quantify comparison ambiguity, and (3) an adaptive budget allocator that routes high-surprise pairs to humans while automating low-surprise pairs via transitivity inference. Validation was conducted on six diverse benchmarks spanning text similarity (STS-B, BIOSSES, SICKR-STS) and image quality assessment (KonIQ-10k, TID2013, LIVE Challenge). SGS effectively identified and skipped up to 535 non-informative comparisons per session. Consequently, it achieved Kendall's $\tau{\times}100$ improvements of $+6$ to $+12$ over Active Elo under the same total budget. These results demonstrate that combining VLM-guided surprise metrics with algorithmic sorting provides a generally consistent accuracy-efficiency trade-off across diverse domains.

16.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

The Quantum Split-Step Fourier Algorithm for Nonlinear Optical Waveguides

arXiv:2606.24643v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce the Quantum Split-Step Fourier (QSSF) algorithm for nonlinear optical waveguides, a numerical framework that combines split-step propagation of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation with a commutator-preserving Bogoliubov evolution of Gaussian quantum fluctuations. The method propagates the classical mean field together with the Bogoliubov matrices $U$ and $V$, from which reduced second moments, covariance matrices, symplectic eigenvalues, and entropic measures are constructed for arbitrary spectral windows. Applied to soliton-driven resonant radiation, QSSF shows that the selected radiation band acquires a steadily increasing von Neumann entropy and a corresponding loss of purity, quantifying its entanglement with the rest of the spectrum in the lossless Gaussian setting. The analysis also reveals a surprisingly pronounced low-dimensional structure: although the radiation occupies many Fourier bins, its reduced Gaussian state is dominated by only a few Williamson modes. QSSF therefore provides a practical information-theoretic diagnostic for quantum correlations in nonlinear frequency conversion, supercontinuum generation, and multimode squeezed-light formation in ultrafast waveguide platforms.

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Where, What, Why, and Importance: Structured Defect Grounding for Text-to-Image Feedback

Despite generating increasingly photorealistic images, text-to-image (T2I) models still exhibit localized, subtle, and structurally complex failures. Diagnosing these failures requires instance-level feedback that answers where a defect occurs, what type it is, why it is defective, and its importance to overall image quality. While recent dense-feedback methods move beyond scalar supervision, their heatmap-centric representations still formulate diagnosis as pixel-field regression, making it difficult to localize variable-cardinality defects and bind semantic reasons to individual failures. To address this representation bottleneck, we propose Structured Defect Grounding (SDG), which casts T2I diagnosis as structured set prediction by modeling each defect as a (location, type, reason, importance) tuple. To make this formulation trainable and measurable, we introduce SDG-30K, a 30K-image dataset with box-grounded annotations across four modern T2I generators, together with a dedicated evaluation protocol, SDG-Eval. Building on this structured representation, we further present a diagnosis-to-alignment framework in which a Vision-Language Model (VLM) serves as the SDG detector, and BoxFlow-GRPO converts predicted defect sets into box-derived, importance-weighted spatial rewards for diffusion model alignment. Extensive experiments show that our SDG detector outperforms leading proprietary VLMs on structured defect grounding, while SDG-guided rewards consistently improve T2I alignment and support localized image refinement. These results establish SDG as a unified, instance-level interface for diagnosing, evaluating, and enhancing modern generative models.

18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Fed-FBD: Federated Functional Block Diversification for Isolation, Privacy, and Surgical Unlearning

arXiv:2606.12679v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative model training without sharing raw patient data, but standard approaches such as FedAvg treat each client as a black box and provide no mechanism for isolating an adversarial contributor, auditing per-client influence, or honoring a departed participant's right to be forgotten. We present Fed-FBD (Federated Functional Block Diversification), a modular federated architecture that decomposes a ResNet backbone into six functional blocks (the stem, four residual groups, and the classification head) and maintains a warehouse of N color variants, each assembled from independently tracked and contributor-stamped blocks. Fed-FBD provides three capabilities absent in FedAvg: (i) architecturally guaranteed block-level isolation, so that an adversarial or mislabelled client cannot contaminate the clean colous; (ii) privacy-by-design, where membership inference advantage is already indistinguishable from chance before any privacy mechanism is applied; and (iii) surgical machine unlearning of a departed participant's contribution at sub-second cost and without retraining. Experiments on six MedMNIST-2D datasets, PathMNIST at 224x224, and CIFAR-10 show that Fed-FBD trades a modest 0.3%-3.1% IID accuracy gap on the adequately sized datasets for these guarantees, remains within 0.8%-4.0% of FedAvg at Dirichlet alpha=1.0 on three of four datasets, and confines all six adversarial attacks we study to the poisoned client's own blocks with at most +/-0.01 AUC drift on the clean colors.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Bootstrapped Monitoring: Leveraging Transparent Reasoning to Oversee Stronger AI Agents

arXiv:2606.11998v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Trusted monitoring is a cornerstone of AI control. However, as frontier models grow more capable, the increasing capabilities gap between trusted and untrusted models may render trusted models unreliable monitors. We introduce bootstrapped monitoring, a protocol that addresses this by inserting a stronger, intermediate untrusted model with transparent chain-of-thought reasoning into the oversight chain. The untrusted monitor ($U_m$) evaluates the agent's actions, while a weaker trusted model ($T$) oversees $U_m$'s reasoning to detect collusion. We evaluate bootstrapped monitoring on multi-turn software engineering tasks (BashArena) across multiple agents and monitors. Bootstrapped monitoring substantially improves catch rates over trusted-only monitoring, even when the untrusted monitor actively colludes with the agent, provided we have access to its raw chain-of-thought. Our results suggest that bootstrapped monitoring can extend the useful lifetime of trusted models in control as AI capabilities advance.

20.
PLOS Medicine 2026-06-04

Beyond associations: Navigating the safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in early pregnancy

by Andrew S. C. Yuen, Kenneth K. C. Man Pain and fever in pregnancy require treatment, but fetal safety concerns complicate analgesic choice. A recent PLOS Medicine study presents new evidence on the safety of first-trimester NSAID use and congenital malformation risk, but interpreting findings across studies is challenging. In this Perspective, Kenneth Man and Andrew Yuen highlight a recent PLOS Medicine study that presents new evidence on the safety of first-trimester NSAID use and congenital malformation risk, but discuss why interpreting findings across studies is challenging.

21.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-24

A global map of seagrass ecosystems

Combining satellite imagery and machine learning has created the first comprehensive map of seagrass meadows, in a boost for the conservation of these crucial ecosystems. Combining satellite imagery and machine learning has created the first comprehensive map of seagrass meadows, in a boost for the conservation of these crucial ecosystems.

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Sex-specific multimorbidity clusters and all-cause mortality in relatively healthy older adults: findings from the ASPREE cohort

Background: Multimorbidity is common in older adults, but sex differences in chronic condition clustering remain unclear. This study explored multimorbidity clusters and their associations with all-cause mortality among community-dwelling adults aged 70 years and over. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of data from 16,095 Australian ASPREE participants aged at least 70 years without prior dementia or cardiovascular disease. Fifteen baseline chronic conditions were grouped using latent class analysis (LCA). Observed-to-expected (O/E) ratios characterised conditions over-represented within clusters, and Cox proportional hazards models assessed associations with all-cause mortality. Results: Among 16,095 participants (mean age 74 years), 88.3% had multimorbidity at baseline; 4,217 deaths occurred over a median follow-up of 10.85 years. Five clusters were identified overall: hypertension and dyslipidemia (52.1%), gout and metabolic (14.4%), depressive symptoms, osteoporosis and frailty (10.0%), anaemia and kidney disease (10.2%), and hypotension, thyroid disorder and past cancer (13.3%). Sex-stratified analyses revealed three clusters in males and four in females. The frailty, depressive symptoms and osteoporosis cluster was associated with higher mortality in both sexes (aHR 1.56 [95% CI 1.40-1.73] in males; 1.68 [1.49-1.89] in females). Higher mortality was also observed for the metabolic, gout and kidney disease cluster in males (aHR 1.63 [1.47-1.81]) and the gout, anaemia and kidney disease cluster in females (aHR 1.96 [1.74-2.21]). Conclusions: Distinct multimorbidity clusters differed by sex and were associated with increased all-cause mortality. These findings may support risk stratification, targeted screening, and more person-centred management of older adults with multimorbidity.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

NarrativeWorldBench: A Frontier-Saturated Benchmark and a Latent World Model for Long-Horizon Co-Creative Audio Drama

Long-form serialized audio drama, with arcs that run for 200 to 800 episodes, is a major creative medium and a setting where frontier large language models (LLMs) fail. We benchmark 21 models, spanning classical, fine-tuned, open-frontier, closed-frontier, and reasoning tiers, on a uniform set of structural narrative metrics. All closed-frontier systems saturate at a plot-beat F1 in the band [0.78, 0.81] and collapse by about -0.20 F1 at horizon h=200. We introduce NarrativeWorldBench, an open benchmark of nine narrative-structure metrics evaluated across horizons h in {10, 20, 50, 100, 200}, with cross-lingual evaluation across four Indic languages (Hindi, Tamil, Telugu, Marathi). We introduce N-VSSM, a Narrative Variational State-Space Model that maintains a structured 256-dimensional latent world state over more than 200 episodes via a Mamba-2 backbone with an event-conditioned posterior and an 8B decoder. N-VSSM holds plot-beat F1 >= 0.84 across all horizons at 4x lower compute than the closed-frontier band. A learned Cultural Transfer Function lifts cross-language fidelity by +0.20 to +0.23 Likert points. In a within-subjects writer study (n = 12 professional authors, 240 trials), N-VSSM is preferred over Claude Opus 4.5 on long-arc consistency 71% of the time and rated +1.3 Likert points higher on controllability.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Renewable Lasso without Batch-Number Constraints: A Gradient-Enhanced Approach

arXiv:2606.11738v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study online estimation for high-dimensional generalized linear models with streaming data. First, for the non-distributed setting, we propose a gradient-enhanced surrogate loss that approximates the cumulative loss using only historical summaries, which modifies and improves upon the existing renewable estimation approach for the same model in the high-dimensional setting, and removes the batch-number constraint in previous studies. We then extend the method to distributed streaming data under the master-client architecture, where batches are partitioned across sites and only summaries (gradient vectors) are exchanged. Instead of directing applying the popular method of Jordan et al. (2019) to the surrogate quadratic loss, our adjusted approach does not require the clients to compute the full surrogate loss. We derive non-asymptotic error bounds under the high-dimensional scaling, without the stringent constraint on the number of batches in the previous studies. Simulation results under linear and logistic models, together with a real-data application, show improved accuracy over existing renewable estimators.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Critically Engaged Pragmatism: Scientific Norm and Social, Pragmatist Epistemology for AI Science Evaluation Tools

Authors:

arXiv:2601.09753v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: AI science evaluation tools aim to assess research credibility. As with traditional metrics such as impact factors, their edicts can be decontextualised and repurposed in problematic ways. To address this, I propose Critically-Engaged Pragmatism as a scientific norm enjoining scientific communities to scrutinise the purposes and purpose-specific reliability of AI science evaluation tools. To foster Critically Engaged Pragmatism, creators of AI science evaluation tools should transparently and fully report design, training, and benchmarking details to facilitate assessments of purpose-specific reliability, liability to different types of error, and bias. What count as best practices for the transparent reporting of AI science evaluation tools should be updated as new forms of error, bias, and gamesmanship are discovered. Under this framework, AI science evaluation tools are not objective arbiters of scientific credibility. Rather, they are the object of critical discursive practices that ultimately ground the credibility of scientific communities.