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01.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Room-Specialized Mixture-of-Experts for In-Home ADL Recognition with Ambient Sensors

Monitoring activities of daily living (ADLs) in the home is a promising approach for tracking dementia progression in older adults. While ambient sensor-based ADL systems are well-studied, most existing ADL recognition systems rely on globally trained models that ignore the spatial organization of in-home activities. In real deployments, where training data are sparse and highly home-specific, global transformer models may fail to capture room-dependent behavioral structure. We propose a deterministic Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture for in-home ADL recognition, in which each expert is a compact transformer specialized to one room of the home (bedroom, kitchen, bathroom, living area). Input segments are routed using a deterministic gating strategy based on room-level motion activity and time-of-day priors for sleep-related behaviors. Unlike learned routing networks, the proposed gate encodes domain knowledge about where ADLs are likely to occur, reducing model complexity under limited per-home training data. By decomposing ADL recognition into room-specific activity spaces, the proposed architecture reduces competition between dominant and low-frequency activities under highly imbalanced residential data. We evaluated the system on data collected via low-cost ambient sensors (motion, light, temperature, humidity) and Raspberry Pi edge devices across five homes, with ground-truth ADL labels provided by participants and caregivers. Across the five homes, the proposed MoE consistently outperformed global transformer, 1D CNN, and Random Forest baselines, achieving macro-F1 scores ranging from 0.60 to 0.88, highlighting the importance of home-specific modeling in real-world deployments. These findings suggest that room-aware expert specialization may provide a practical and interpretable strategy for low-data ADL recognition in real-world residential environments.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

T2S: A Rehearsal-Based Approach for Extraction-Resistant Model Watermarking

arXiv:2606.11698v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Model watermarking safeguards AI model intellectual property by embedding distinctive knowledge that induces unique behavioral signatures. The primary technical challenge lies in ensuring watermark robustness against various post-processing attacks on the watermarked model. Model extraction attacks emerge as the most severe threat, where adversaries exploit prediction outputs to train surrogate models that illegally replicate the original model's functionality. In this work, we propose a rehearsal-based watermark embedding framework to enhance the robustness of model watermarks against model extraction attacks. By simulating the extraction process, our method leverages the loss of a simulated stolen model on a trigger set as a training signal to fine-tune the watermark knowledge within the target model. This fine-tuning step encourages the watermark to be embedded in a way that boosts transferability, thereby increasing its chances of persisting and remaining detectable in stolen models. Comprehensive experiments conducted under diverse settings demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves the robustness of model watermarks against both model extraction and subsequent watermark removal attacks.

03.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Matrix Discrepancy for Representations of Finite Groups

arXiv:2606.12181v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Given a finite group $G$, we prove that there exist signs $\varepsilon\in\{\pm1\}^G$ such that $$\left\| \sum_{g\in G} \varepsilon_g\rho(g) \right\|\leq C\, \sqrt{|G|},$$ where $\rho$ is the left regular representation of $G$, and $C$ is a universal constant. This special case of the Matrix Spencer conjecture was posed in [BKMZ24], where it was established for simple groups.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Order Is Not Control

AI alignment, interpretability, steering, and neural perturbation studies identify order-inducing objects. We argue that order is not control. Control requires a receiver-gated response law: a denominator-indexed operator mapping material state, action/drive, bath, and receiver state to response displacement, sinks, effort, and basin projection. We identify it across biological, LLM, adapter, and stochastic-operator panels. The laws are local: an intervention can be admitted, saturated, sign-changing, leaky, or overdriven depending on medium, bath, receiver state, action port, and comparator. Control is assigned when finite effort moves a target or outcome-readout class under the same denominator while damage, null/evasive, invalid format, overdrive, and unnecessary effort stay bounded. Mouse ALM, C. elegans, and zebrafish panels provide physical response-operator evidence while excluding coordinate identity and controller conclusions. LLM panels show generated-output response laws: across four material conditions, response vectors are predictable at 72.8-73.7% component-sign accuracy, rising to 84.3-84.8% on nonzero components; held-out observers predict system-effect and target/oracle families at 93.6% and 91.7% accuracy. Constitution-conditioned adapters reshape susceptibility as prepared media, and stochastic-operator panels separate measured opportunity from deployable action policies. This gives a driven-dissipative response-system account at the mesoscopic control level: drives act through prepared media, baths, and receivers, producing admitted movement, impedance, sinks, or overdrive. The evidence supports local admitted control and measurable stochastic response operators, while leaving deployable pre-generation control, hidden/logit causal sufficiency, biological-to-LLM coordinate identity, and literal thermodynamic quantities outside scope.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Why SWAVE May Not Be All You Need:A Concept-Evolution Retrospective on Complex-Valued Recurrent Language Models

arXiv:2606.18324v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: SWave is a complex-valued recurrent language model (169.26M parameters, D=384, L=16, T=2048) trained on FineWeb-Edu using 2xH100 NVL. It was designed around three founding premises: that representing language as complex waves rather than real-valued numbers enables richer information encoding; that a Cayley-parameterised unitary transition provides a mathematical guarantee against state decay or explosion; and that a hidden state which rotates rather than shrinks preserves signal integrity over arbitrarily long contexts. The core of SWave evolved substantially across three development phases. The Resonance Head was found to structurally admit imaginary-channel collapse as a global loss minimum (a failure mode we term cos-domination collapse) and was superseded by an untied head with independent real and imaginary embedding tables from the Phase-Associative Memory (PAM) architecture. This resolved the degenerate minimum and enabled stable 200,000-step training (best-step PPL 22.0 at step 89,861). ComplexNorm and the Wave Propagation Scan proved load-bearing throughout all three phases and were retained to the final architecture. ProtectGatedScan was reframed as a structural prior rather than a learned behaviour. The four multi-scale retention concepts showed no measurable improvement under controlled evaluation and were found non-load-bearing. The ComplexGatedUnit was superseded by a real-valued squared-ReLU channel mixer with fewer parameters. The auxiliary training objectives showed no benefit once structural constraints were resolved. The investigation yields a formal characterisation of cos-domination collapse, a parallel scan with a log-space backward pass for numerical stability, six transferable engineering principles for complex-valued recurrent training, and a plan-to-code traceability methodology for catching structural divergences that conventional test suites miss.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Towards an Agent-First Web: Redesigning the Web for AI Agents

arXiv:2606.19116v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The World Wide Web was built on an assumption held for three decades: the primary consumer of web content is a human being. This permeates every layer; its access model presumes human visitors, its economics rest on human attention, and its content targets human perception. The rapid emergence of AI agents as intermediaries between humans and web content invalidates this assumption. Yet the web resists agents through blanket blocking, CAPTCHA-based exclusion, and economic models that treat agent access as extraction rather than legitimate interaction. This paper proposes a principled redesign across three layers. At the access layer, agents acting for humans should inherit equivalent access rights, governed by rate limiting and agent identification metadata in HTTP requests, analogous to browser headers, alongside a dual-layer architecture serving human-readable and agent-optimized content from the same domain. At the economic layer, we propose an intent-based tier framework grounded in the agent-as-human-proxy principle: an agent's economic obligation mirrors that of the human it represents. A token-based subscription model meters content in tokens rather than pageviews, alongside a commissioned content economy anchoring AI content production in human intentionality. At the content layer, we identify epistemic recursion, the self-referential loop in which AI-generated content is consumed by agents to produce further content, progressively detaching web knowledge from human ground truth. We propose the Agent Text Markup Language (ATML), a four-level human supervision tier model, and a cryptographic provenance chain to counter this threat. Together these constitute ten design principles for an agent-first internet, one in which agents are first-class citizens whose integration requires renegotiating the web's foundational social contract across access, economics, and content.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Contextual Invertible World Models: A Neuro-Symbolic Agentic Framework for Colorectal Cancer Drug Response

arXiv:2603.02274v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Precision oncology is currently limited by the small-N, large-P paradox, where high-dimensional genomic data is abundant but pharmacological response samples are sparse. While deep learning achieves predictive accuracy, it frequently fails to provide the mechanistic clarity required for clinical adoption. We present the Contextual Invertible World Model (CIWM), a Neuro-Symbolic Agentic Framework that bridges this gap by integrating a quantitative machine learning emulator with a Large Language Model reasoning layer. Utilising a stringently curated, high-fidelity data engineering pipeline on the Sanger GDSC dataset (\( N=83 \)), we isolate true biological signals from in vitro artifacts to establish a rigorous baseline predictive correlation for complex transcriptomics (\( r=0.268 \)). Through Inverse Reasoning, we perform in silico CRISPR perturbations across the colorectal landscape. The framework autonomously overturns classical mechanistic assumptions, identifying a hierarchical dominance of mutant KRAS over the APC/Wnt-axis in driving 5-fluorouracil resistance (\( \Delta=-0.0469 \)) via a "KRAS Shield" mapped to MAPK/PI3K networks. Furthermore, the agentic layer identified a "PIK3CA Paradox", revealing that repairing PIK3CA inadvertently increases chemoresistance (\( \Delta=+0.0085 \)) by triggering a compensatory feedback loop that hyperactivates the dominant MAPK survival pathway.

08.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Magnetic control of an exciton-polariton condensate in a van der Waals magnet

arXiv:2506.06010v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Quasiparticle condensates are among the most spectacular solid-state manifestations of quantum physics. Coupling macroscopic real-space wavefunctions to additional degrees of freedom, such as the electron spin, would add valuable control knobs for quantum applications. While creating spin-carrying superconducting condensates has attracted enormous attention, man-made condensates of light-matter hybrids known as exciton-polaritons have lacked an analogous spin-based perspective. Here we open a new door by demonstrating magnetically tunable exciton-polariton condensation in the van der Waals magnet CrSBr. Under photoexcitation, CrSBr microwires embedded in an optical cavity show the hallmarks of polariton condensation: a dramatic increase of the emission intensity from an excited laterally confined polariton state by multiple orders of magnitude, spectral narrowing of the emission line, and a continuous shift of the peak energy. Interferometry evidences an increase in spatial and temporal coherence. Owing to the strong coupling between the spin order and excitonic correlation, the energy of the condensate can be tuned by up to 10.5 meV by an external magnetic field of only 2 Tesla. Our results establish CrSBr microcavities as a powerful platform for exploring magnetic control of polariton condensates and mark a significant step toward spin-controlled coherent quantum light sources.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Automated ultrasound doppler angle estimation using deep learning

arXiv:2508.04243v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Angle estimation is an important step in the Doppler ultrasound clinical workflow to measure blood velocity. It is widely recognized that incorrect angle estimation is a leading cause of error in Doppler-based blood velocity measurements. In this paper, we propose a deep learning-based approach for automated Doppler angle estimation. The approach was developed using 2100 human carotid ultrasound images including image augmentation. Five pre-trained models were used to extract images features, and these features were passed to a custom shallow network for Doppler angle estimation. Independently, measurements were obtained by a human observer reviewing the images for comparison. The mean absolute error (MAE) between the automated and manual angle estimates ranged from 3.9{\deg} to 9.4{\deg} for the models evaluated. Furthermore, the MAE for the best performing model was less than the acceptable clinical Doppler angle error threshold thus avoiding misclassification of normal velocity values as a stenosis. The results demonstrate potential for applying a deep-learning based technique for automated ultrasound Doppler angle estimation. Such a technique could potentially be implemented within the imaging software on commercial ultrasound scanners.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

HumP-KD: A Hybrid Uncertainty-Aware Multi-Stage Progressive Knowledge Distillation Framework for Efficient Fire Classification

Real-time fire classification systems require models that are simultaneously accurate, computationally efficient, and deployable on resource-constrained hardware. This work proposes HumP-KD, a Hybrid Uncertainty-aware Multi-stage Progressive Knowledge Distillation framework for efficient fire classification. Two datasets, FlameVision and Dataset-II, containing 8,600 and 31,309 images, are used. Various CNN and transformer baselines are applied under standard preprocessing, online augmentation, Gaussian noise and motion blur robustness conditions. The proposed HumP-KD model distills knowledge from two frozen heterogeneous transformer teachers, Swin-Tiny and ViT-Base, along with their Meta-MLP ensemble, into a lightweight MobileViT-S student via three tightly integrated components. Hierarchical Progressive Knowledge Distillation employs a Hierarchical Feature Builder. It generates a fused spatial attention mask to guide distillation toward discriminative regions selectively. Multi-Stage Knowledge Distillation progressively activates three distillation stages across training. On Dataset-II, HumP-KD achieves a mean F1 score of $0.9876 \pm 0.0063$ across 10 independent trials, significantly outperforming the MobileViT-S baseline trained without distillation ($0.9537 \pm 0.0351$), with statistical significance confirmed by both independent t-test ($p = 0.0195$) and Wilcoxon signed-rank test ($W = 1$, $p = 0.0039$). The proposed method also demonstrates strong generalization across datasets and robustness under degraded visual conditions. The student model retains only 4.94M parameters and 19.01Mb model size, representing a $5.7\times$ parameter reduction over Swin-Tiny and a $17.5\times$ reduction over ViT-Base, while achieving 37.72 CPU FPS, making it suitable for real-time deployment.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Symplectic Transversality and Endpoint Green Estimates for Finite-Horizon Pontryagin Systems

arXiv:2606.17762v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study horizon-uniform local branches of finite-horizon discrete-time Pontryagin boundary value systems after smooth control elimination. The central input is a two-point endpoint inverse for the linearization. We verify this inverse from scaled stable–unstable boundary transversality, prove the associated endpoint-corrected Green estimate, and combine it with weighted contractions to obtain existence, uniqueness, Lipschitz dependence, and first-order expansions with constants independent of the horizon. The framework covers smooth nonlinear endpoint maps, including the original Pontryagin rows that fix the initial state and couple the terminal costate to the terminal state. Symplectic and Riccati criteria verify the inverse hypothesis at the level of the matrix data; in particular, every stabilizable linear-quadratic system with invertible dynamics and definite weights is covered, including noncommuting coupled data. A numerical section illustrates the certificates and the horizon-uniform first-order expansion.

12.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-09

Don’t compete, collaborate: why collective funding applications are the future

Authors:

Scientists with disparate expertise writing grants together can identify knowledge gaps and drive progress — but systems must change to incentivize them. Scientists with disparate expertise writing grants together can identify knowledge gaps and drive progress — but systems must change to incentivize them.

13.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Hormonal Contraceptives Drive Genital Lipid Metabolism Reprogramming and Susceptibility to HIV Infection

Heterosexual genital HIV transmission is a major driver of new infections, particularly in women, making them disproportionately vulnerable to HIV acquisition. Previous studies have associated injectable hormonal contraceptives (HC) with increasing susceptibility to HIV. Yet, the underlying molecular mechanism remains incompletely understood. Given the structural and signaling role of lipids in the female genital tract, cervicovaginal lipidomic profiling has the potential to reveal the mechanistic interplay among HC, lipidome, and HIV susceptibility in the female genital tract. We conducted untargeted cervicovaginal lipidomics study in a cohort of high-risk, HIV-negative, Kenyan sex workers who were using injectable depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA), oral contraceptive pill (OCP), or no hormonal contraception (NH). Genital lipids were quantitatively analyzed using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) and bioinformatics platforms. A total of 1045 lipid species were identified in the cervicovaginal lavage samples. Injectable DMPA significantly downregulated major structural and signaling membrane lipids, including phospholipids, ceramides, sphingomyelins, and glycosphingolipids (p

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

X-Tokenizer: A Multimodal Action Tokenizer for Vision-Language-Action Pretraining

Modern Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models must bridge pretrained vision-language reasoning and precise continuous robot control. Existing action tokenizers discretize actions primarily for reconstruction, producing codes that preserve motion geometry but provide only weak semantic supervision to the backbone. We therefore formulate action tokenization not as mere compression, but as semantic interface learning between multimodal reasoning and executable control. To this end, we introduce X-Tokenizer, a lightweight encoder-Semantic Residual Quantization (SRQ)-decoder architecture that provides a shared action interface across diverse robotic arm embodiments. Its key component, SRQ, imposes an asymmetric structure on residual vector quantization: the first level is trained with Masked Action Modeling (MAM) to form a discrete action language that captures coarse motion intent, while deeper levels remain reconstruction-oriented residuals that preserve fine-grained details. To further align action tokens with multimodal semantics, X-Tokenizer is pretrained with contrastive alignment to the representation space of a pretrained foundation model and with next-frame vision-language feature prediction. Pretrained on 2.4M trajectories (2.0B action frames), a single frozen X-Tokenizer plugs into a mixed discrete-continuous VLA as a representation-shaping supervision signal. X-Tokenizer achieves top real-world aggregate and strong RoboTwin 2.0 simulation results. Outperforming FAST in multimodal grounding (+13.5%) and long-horizon tasks (+8.25), it shows that action tokenizers serve as semantic interfaces for VLA pretraining beyond mere action compression.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Hierarchical GRU with Input-Conditioned Slot Queries for Ball Action Anticipation

We present a hierarchical model for ball action anticipation in football broadcast video. Given a 30-second observation window, the system predicts actions occurring in the subsequent 5-second window across 10 classes. A shared local Transformer encodes clip-level features within each 5-second sub-window; a GRU then aggregates temporal context across all sub-windows; finally, a Transformer decoder with K input-conditioned event slots decodes the anticipation target via three decoupled heads (objectness, class, temporal offset). We introduce frequency-reweighted Hungarian matching that systematically favours rare action classes, and Gaussian soft targets for temporal bin supervision. On the SoccerNet Ball Action Anticipation benchmark, our method achieves 17.91% mAP on the test server.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

A Stationarity-and-Coupling Criterion for Training-Free Time-Lagged Spectral Embeddings of Multivariate Time Series

arXiv:2606.13823v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study training-free fixed-length descriptors for multivariate time series and ask not merely whether such a descriptor performs well, but when it can be expected to work at all. Our object of study is $D(\tau)$, built from a time-lagged correlation matrix truncated at the Marchenko-Pastur edge so that only signal-bearing eigenvalues survive and classified by cosine similarity to class centroids with zero learned parameters. The central contribution is not the descriptor but a falsifiable applicability criterion for it. Working from a stationary Gaussian VAR(1) model, we argue that $D(\tau)$ separates two classes when the signals are approximately stationary and the class information lives in their cross-channel temporal coupling rather than in marginal per-channel power. We derive, semi-formally, three consequences: a distinguishability condition, why the static ($\tau=0$) covariance collapses to chance, and why a stationary but power-discriminated paradigm defeats the descriptor. The criterion is operational: a two-part pre-flight test – an augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity check and a power-baseline saturation check – predicts applicability before any training. We validate both halves on a mixed assortment. On four paradigms that satisfy the criterion (Sleep-EDF, BCI-IV-2a, MIT-BIH, ESC-50) the descriptor is competitive with strong baselines at a fraction of their cost, reaching $88.5\pm4.5\%$ under 20-subject leave-one-subject-out on Sleep-EDF on a single CPU thread. On three that violate it – non-stationary ERPs, and financial-volatility and wearable-stress regimes that are power-discriminated – it fails exactly as the pre-flight predicts, and these negatives are the more informative half. We are explicit that $D(\tau)$ is not the most accurate representation; its value is a compact, training-free embedding whose domain of validity is known in advance.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

SEAGAN: domain-Specific and Edge-Aware Graph Attention Network for Dynamic Plant Processes

arXiv:2606.19623v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Graph neural networks (GNNs) provide a flexible framework for learning from scientific data linked through physical, biological, or functional relationships. One promising domain is plant physiology, where measured responses often arise from multiple interacting processes whose exact separation remains difficult even with manual intervention. In plant physiology, a key example is the A-Ci curve, which relates net CO2 assimilation rate (Anet) to leaf intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) and is used to estimate photosynthetic parameters in leaf and crop-canopy models. However, reliable estimation requires identifying the active biochemical limitation state at each curve point, which remains a major source of uncertainty. Here, we formulate limitation-state identification along A-Ci curves as a graph-based node classification problem, with curve points as nodes. Domain-specific graph representations are created using distance-based k-nearest-neighbor (kNN) and auxiliary-signal-guided (ASG) connectivity, with edge attributes encoding pairwise relations. The framework was evaluated against conventional learning baselines, graph-based architectures, and an automated fitting-based benchmark. Results on a large synthetic dataset with known ground-truth limitation states show that graph-based models improve classification, particularly near biochemical transition regions. The best-performing configuration, SEAGAN (domain-Specific and Edge-Aware Graph Attention Network for Dynamic Plant Processes), integrates process-aware node features, edge attributes, kNN connectivity, and graph attention with weighted cross-entropy loss, achieving an F1-score of 0.857 and an accuracy of 0.882. The results show that representing A-Ci curves as graphs improves biochemical limitation-state analysis, with edge-aware attention over local kNN neighborhoods providing the most effective strategy.

18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Machine Learning and the Random Walk Puzzle: Forecasting the CAD/USD Exchange Rate with Expanding Window Evaluation and SHAP Interpretability

arXiv:2606.15058v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study examines whether machine learning (ML) models can outperform the naive random walk benchmark in forecasting the monthly USD/CAD exchange rate. Using daily data from the Bank of Canada spanning January 2017 to May 2026, resampled into 113 monthly observations, five ML models are evaluated: linear regression, random forest, gradient boosting, XGBoost, and AdaBoost. These models are benchmarked against the naive random walk model and exponential smoothing with Holt-Winters seasonality (ETS). All models are evaluated using an expanding-window framework to maintain strict out-of-sample integrity, and forecast-accuracy differences are assessed using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. Structural break detection identifies four significant breakpoints in the series, corresponding to the escalation of the US-China trade war in 2018, the COVID-19 economic recovery in 2020, the peak of the Bank of Canada rate-hiking cycle in 2022, and the start of the Bank of Canada rate-cutting cycle in 2024. SHAP, or Shapley Additive Explanations, analysis is applied to interpret the drivers of the best-performing ML model. The results show that the naive random walk model remains a formidable benchmark. Linear regression is the only model that statistically outperforms the naive random walk model, with a DM statistic of 3.0585 and a p value of 0.0071, whereas the ML ensemble models show only marginal differences. Random Forest with an expanding-window framework achieves the lowest MAPE of 1.17 percent among all models except the random walk. SHAP analysis confirms that short-term lags, particularly lag1 and lag2, and recent rolling means dominate predictions, consistent with the near-random-walk behavior of exchange rates.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Beyond the Linear Separability Ceiling: Aligning Representations in VLMs

A challenge in advancing Visual-Language Models (VLMs) is determining whether their failures on abstract reasoning tasks, such as Bongard problems, stem from flawed perception or faulty top-down reasoning. To disentangle these factors, we introduce a diagnostic framework centered on the Linear Separability Ceiling (LSC), the performance achievable by a linear classifier on a VLM's raw visual embeddings. Applying this framework to state-of-the-art VLMs, we uncover a pervasive ''alignment gap'', where most models fail to generatively outperform the linear separability of their representations. We find that the few models surpassing this ceiling do so via two mechanisms: by further refining visual representations into a more linearly separable format or by executing non-linear decision logic. We demonstrate that this bottleneck is not a fundamental limitation but a solvable visual alignment issue. Our method augments standard next-token prediction with a contrastive objective to restructure the visual manifold into a more one-dimensionally linear geometry, improving image-to-image comparison and enabling models to significantly surpass the LSC on abstract compositional reasoning tasks.

20.
PLOS Medicine 2026-06-12

Comparison of count-based and clustering definitions of multimorbidity and their association with prevalence of multimorbidity, health profiles, and mortality: A cohort study of UK Biobank participants

by Gabriella C. Silva, Aurore Fayosse, Louis Jacob, Séverine Sabia, Archana Singh-Manoux, Benjamin Landré Background Multimorbidity, the presence of several chronic conditions, is linked to higher mortality and healthcare use and thus poses a major challenge for aging populations. While most studies rely on simple counts of conditions, clustering approaches have been proposed to describe patterns of co-occurring diseases. We aimed to evaluate the extent to which these methodological choices influence prevalence and association with health profiles and mortality. Methods and findings Using UK Biobank baseline data (n = 474,397), collected between 2006 and 2010, we compared six count-based definitions of multimorbidity based on different condition lists (extended, most prevalent, or body systems) and thresholds (≥2 versus ≥3 conditions). We also applied a clustering analysis to characterize subtypes of multimorbidity among participants with at least two chronic conditions. We compared prevalence and associations with concurrent health outcomes (polypharmacy, self-rated health, frailty, falls, surgery, chronic pain), blood-based measures (C-reactive protein, Cystatin-C, HDL, LDL Cholesterol, IGF-1), and 3- and 10-year mortality risks. Analyses were undertaken separately in men and women using multivariable regression models adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and body mass index. Multimorbidity prevalence ranged from 1.0% (cluster-based) to 35.3% (count-based). Count-based definitions using lists with more conditions yielded higher prevalence. Higher thresholds identified more severe health profiles on all measured health outcomes, blood-based measures, but not higher mortality risks. Associations with blood-based measures were more pronounced using clustering, with the highest differences from the standard definition distributed across clusters. Odds ratios for 3-year mortality ranged from 1.44 [1.26; 1.64] to 4.60 [3.73; 5.62] for men and 1.35 [1.07; 1.69] to 3.83 [2.78; 5.14] for women. For 10-year mortality, they ranged from 1.42 [1.34; 1.50] to 3.86 [3.46; 4.30] in men and 1.29 [1.21; 1.39] to 3.33 [2.93; 3.77] for women, with clustering identifying groups with low prevalence and high mortality risks. Findings should be interpreted in light of the selected nature of the UK Biobank cohort and the cross-sectional assessment of several health indicators. Conclusion Operational definitions of multimorbidity substantially influence prevalence estimates, while associations with mortality appear more robust across count-based approaches. Clustering analyses provide complementary insights into heterogeneity within multimorbid populations. Future translational studies are warranted to determine how multimorbidity definitions can be optimized to ultimately improve clinical management and health outcomes in practice.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

What Do Safety-Aligned LLMs Learn From Mixed Compliance Demonstrations?

arXiv:2606.20508v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prior work has shown that in-context demonstrations can jailbreak language models, but it remains unclear how models interpret different types of compliance demonstrations. We study this by mixing benign compliance demonstrations (non-harmful request, helpful response) with harmful compliance demonstrations (harmful request, helpful response) and testing three hypotheses about how demonstration composition drives harmful compliance. Across four models, we find that benign and harmful demonstrations are not interchangeable: benign demonstrations can either reduce or increase harmful compliance depending on the model. We further show that preference optimization is the critical training stage that prevents benign demonstrations from increasing harmful compliance, that demonstration ordering exhibits strong recency bias, and that models differ in how refusal interacts with in-context learning: some adopt demonstrated formatting even when refusing, while others override all in-context signals upon refusal. Taken together, this work moves beyond showing that demonstration-based jailbreaking works to characterizing how it works: what models extract from compliance demonstrations depends on demonstration content, ordering, and training methodology.

22.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

URDF Synthesis from RGB-D Sequences via Differentiable Joint Inference and Energy-Consistent Verification

Authors:

Reconstructing simulation-ready digital twins of articulated objects from sensor observations remains constrained by two persistent gaps: (i) part-level geometric reconstruction is decoupled from kinematic-parameter estimation, and (ii) the recovered models often violate basic dynamic invariants such as energy conservation, leading to drift when the URDF is replayed in physics simulators. We present KinemaForge, a constraint-driven pipeline that jointly infers part-level shape, joint topology, and joint parameters from short RGB-D sequences and validates the result against an energy-consistent verifier built on differentiable rigid-body dynamics. The pipeline introduces three components: a kinematic constraint graph that encodes joint-part incidences as soft edges; a differentiable screw-axis solver that backpropagates from rendered observations through Featherstone's articulated-body algorithm to joint parameters; and an energy residual loss that penalises non-physical free responses of the reconstructed model. Across five PartNet-Mobility categories and an internal RGB-D benchmark, KinemaForge reduces the average joint-axis error from 4.52 degrees to 2.83 degrees (-37.4%) over the strongest geometric baseline (PARIS) and from 5.30 degrees to 2.83 degrees (-46.6%) over the interaction-based Ditto baseline, lowers long-horizon simulation drift by 64% (vs. PARIS) over 50 s rollouts, and yields URDFs whose closed-loop manipulation success rate improves by 14.6 percentage points over Ditto in our preliminary evaluation. Code and reconstruction data will be released upon acceptance.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Forecasting Is Not Attribution: Localizing Decoder Bypass in Graph-Based Neural Marketing Mix Models

arXiv:2606.12687v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Marketing mix models are used to forecast business outcomes and to attribute those outcomes to marketing channels, but these goals are not equivalent. We study a failure mode in graph-based neural MMM called attribution bypass: a high-capacity decoder can obtain low forecasting error through target autoregression, dense communication, co-movement, context, or latent memory while failing to route counterfactual sensitivity through the graph used as the attribution object. We introduce DICE-MMM as a bounded diagnostic and training framework. We do not claim that observational neural MMM identifies causal effects. Instead, DICE separates three questions often conflated in graph-based MMM: graph recovery, forecasting accuracy, and whether the trained decoder's perturbation-induced influence is graph aligned. Stage 1 trains a graph encoder with a restricted graph-mediated decoder. Stage 2 freezes the selected encoder and trains a graph-safe latent decoder whose cross-node communication must pass through the supplied graph. Decoder use is evaluated with CIG, AR-CIG, and graph-swap tests. Across controlled R/d/T swaps and an external multi-graph rawlog stress test, DICE improves stable graph recovery over CausalMMM. The experiments show that forecasting accuracy is not an attribution certificate: in a sparse-target benchmark, no-graph and full-graph decoders achieve MSE@7 around 0.004 while AR-CIG nAUPRC remains near or below zero, whereas an oracle graph reaches 0.807 +/- 0.129 at comparable MSE. Frozen graph-swap localizes the bottleneck: the same DICE-hard-trained decoder moves from nAUPRC -0.044 +/- 0.006 under learned graph inputs to 0.894 +/- 0.027 with the oracle graph. The contribution is a stress test and failure-localization framework showing that low MSE can hide attribution bypass and that the unresolved bottleneck is graph-support selection, not forecasting or decoder capacity.

24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Time-dependent averages of a critical long-range stochastic heat equation

arXiv:2411.09058v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the time-dependent spatial averages of a critical stochastic partial differential equation, namely the stochastic heat equation in dimension $d\geq 3$ with noise white in time and colored in space with covariance kernel $\|\cdot\|^{-2}$. The solution to this SPDE is a singular measure and was constructed by Mueller and Tribe in [MT04]. We show that the time-dependent spatial averages of this SPDE over a ball of radius $R$ at time $t$ have different limits under different space-time scales. In particular, when $t\ll R^2$, the central limit theorem holds; when $t=R^2$, the spatial average is a non-Gaussian random variable; when $t\gg R^2$, the spatial average becomes extinct.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Descriptor: Certus Caliber Classification Gunshot Dataset (C3GD)

arXiv:2606.18135v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this work, we introduce the Certus Caliber Classification Gunshot Dataset (C3GD), a publicly accessible data set developed for the analysis of firearm muzzle blast sounds. The dataset aims to provide a wide variety of firearms, calibers, cartridges, microphones, and microphone locations with metadata detailed beyond what is currently otherwise available. It comprises more than 8000 field-collected data points from 28 firearms across 16 calibers. Because data collection in the field is costly, much of the existing research has been done using gunshot audio collected from the internet, which increases the risk of low-quality data and label noise. This dataset is primarily focused on caliber classification, but can also be used for gunshot detection, audio separation, and audio signal processing, providing a diversified and real-world reference. The dataset aims to provide enough diversity to be able to generalize to more real-world applications while also providing enough metadata for detailed academic analysis.