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01.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Unifying Quantum Smoothing Theories with Extended Retrodiction

arXiv:2510.08447v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Estimating the state of an open quantum system monitored over time requires incorporating information from past measurements (filtering) and, for improved accuracy, also from future measurements (smoothing). While classical smoothing is well understood within a Bayesian framework, its quantum generalization has been challenging, leading to distinct and seemingly incompatible approaches. In this work, we demonstrate that quantum state smoothing hinges on a uniquely quantum feature: the fundamental dependence of retrodiction on prior correlations. We introduce auxiliary systems into the prior belief to capture correlations formed during preparation and evolution and develop a comprehensive framework for quantum state smoothing based on extended Bayesian retrodiction. This framework identifies all previous approaches as different choices of the extended prior, and naturally extends it to other choices that have not been considered before. We also give an information-theoretic characterization of the choices of prior, in terms of the average entropy of the smoothed states. Our results establish quantum state smoothing as a fundamentally retrodictive process just like classical smoothing, with proper quantum features clearly identified.

02.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

SuperThoughts: Reasoning Tokens in Superposition

Long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning improves LLM problem-solving but is computationally expensive due to sequential token generation. While recent works explore reasoning in continuous latent spaces to bypass discrete token generation, they often struggle with training stability and fail to scale to complex, long-horizon tasks due to lack of supervision signal. We propose SuperThoughts, which compresses pairs of consecutive CoT tokens into single latent representations and decodes two tokens per step via a lightweight Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) module. This preserves discrete token supervision at training time while doubling throughput at inference time. We finetune Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct, Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct, Qwen2.5-Math-14B-Instruct, and evaluate on MATH500, AMC, OlympiadBench, and GPQA-Diamond. With a confidence-based adaptive mechanism that falls back to standard decoding when uncertain, SuperThoughts achieves $\sim$20–30\% CoT length reduction while maintaining accuracy with minimal degradation (1-2 points accuracy drop on most tasks).

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Neural-Parameterized Cellular Automata for Wildfire Spread

arXiv:2606.11676v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Traditional wildfire models rely on rigid, low-dimensional parameters and static fuel maps, frequently underpredicting fire spread. To address this weakness, we introduce a hybrid deep-learning parameterized Probabilistic Cellular Automata (CA) framework implemented in JAX. Our approach employs a Multi-Scale Convolutional Neural Network to dynamically generate spatially varying parameters that govern fire-spread probability, wind alignment, and slope influence. This hybrid design captures complex, nonlinear environmental interactions while preserving the physical interpretability of the underlying three-state CA. The JAX implementation enables hardware acceleration and gradient-based parameter calibration. Evaluated on six large-scale wildfires in the western United States, the model maintains IoU > 0.6 over 72-hour forecast horizons after a 10-day data assimilation window during which the model is fitted incrementally to observed perimeters; the resulting forecast is a conditional projection of fire growth under the suppression regime already ncoded in those observations.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Kairos: A Native World Model Stack for Physical AI

World models are transitioning from passive visual generators to foundational, operational infrastructure for Physical AI: they must natively acquire world knowledge from heterogeneous experience, maintain persistent states over long horizons, and execute efficiently within real deployment constraints. We introduce Kairos, a native world model stack designed around these requirements. (1) Kairos learns the world by pioneering a Native Pre-training Paradigm governed by a Cross-Embodiment Data Curriculum, which organizes open-world videos, human behavioral data, and robot interactions into a progressive developmental pathway. (2) Kairos maintains the world by unified world understanding, generation, and prediction within a Native Unified Architecture equipped with Hybrid Linear Temporal Attention, where sliding-window attention captures local dynamics, dilated sliding windows capture mid-range dependencies, and gated linear attention maintains persistent global memory. We establish formal theoretical bounds demonstrating that this temporal factorization strictly limits error accumulation, mathematically guaranteeing state propagation across extended horizons. (3) Kairos runs the world by incorporating a Deployment-Aware System Co-Design to support low-latency rollout generation on server and consumer-grade hardware for real-world observation-action-feedback loops. Experiments on embodied world-model, long-horizon, and action-policy benchmarks show that Kairos achieves top level performance while offering a strong efficiency-capability trade-off. Together, these results position Kairos as a cohesive operational foundation for future self-evolving physical intelligence.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Data-driven Lake Water Quality Forecasting for Time Series with Missing Data using Machine Learning

arXiv:2601.15503v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Volunteer-led lake monitoring yields irregular, seasonal time series with many gaps arising from ice cover, weather-related access constraints, and occasional human errors, complicating forecasting and early warning of harmful algal blooms. We study Secchi Disk Depth (SDD) forecasting on a 30-lake, data-rich subset drawn from three decades of in-situ records collected across Maine lakes. Missingness is handled via Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), and we evaluate performance with a normalized Mean Absolute Error (nMAE) metric for cross-lake comparability. Among six candidates, ridge regression provides the best mean test performance. Using ridge regression, we then quantify the minimal sample size, showing that under a backward, recent-history protocol, the model reaches within 5% of full-history accuracy with approximately 176 training samples per lake on average. We also identify a minimal feature set, where a compact four-feature subset matches the thirteen-feature baseline within the same 5% tolerance. Bringing these results together, we introduce a joint feasibility function that identifies the minimal training history and fewest predictors sufficient to achieve the target of staying within 5% of the complete-history, full-feature baseline. In our study, meeting the 5% accuracy target required about 64 recent samples and just one predictor per lake, highlighting the practicality of targeted monitoring. Hence, our joint feasibility strategy unifies recent-history length and feature choice under a fixed accuracy target, yielding a simple, efficient rule for setting sampling effort and measurement priorities for lake researchers.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Privacy-Preserving Text Sanitization for Distributed Agents Collaboration via Disentangled Representations

When distributed agents exchange text across organizational boundaries, privacy leakage arises not only from explicit identifiers but also from distributional signatures such as formatting conventions, vocabulary choices, and syntactic patterns. We propose DiSan(Disentangled Sanitization), a privacy-preserving sanitization framework and a built-in component of Intern-Shannon for multi-agent collaboration. DiSan uses a two-stream encoder to factorize text into a source-invariant role subspace that preserves task semantics and a source-identifying style subspace that remains local. Federated proto-type alignment and adversarial regularization enable joint training without centralizing raw text. Experiments show that identifier-level masking is insufficient: masking 19.2% of tokens reduces TF-IDF stylometric attribution by only 18.6%. By contrast, DiSan reduces answer-level PII exposure by 20 times while maintaining 83% answer faithfulness on a distributed multi-agent RAG benchmark, and lowers Enron stylometric attribution by 73.2% under TF-IDF and 70.6% under a neural probe.

07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Implicit Reasoning for Large Language Model-based Generative Recommendation

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly adopted as backbones for Generative Recommendation (GR), promising access to pretrained world knowledge. Yet reliably invoking this knowledge for GR remains poorly understood. A key obstacle is that LLM-based GR typically represents items with Semantic IDs (SIDs), disrupting LLMs' natural-language reasoning interface because these tokens are unseen by the LLM during pretraining. Existing approaches address this with expensive multi-stage pipelines that ground SIDs and elicit explicit rationales, but offer limited insight into when and why each stage is necessary. In this work, we systematically decompose explicit reasoning training pipelines for LLM-based GR, revealing three key limitations: weakened world-knowledge verbalization, misalignment between SID and natural-language token embedding spaces, and sensitivity to rationale quality, all of which hurt explicit reasoning performance. To circumvent these issues, we propose PauseRec, a lightweight implicit reasoning paradigm tailored for GR. PauseRec is exceptionally practical, avoiding costly reasoning trace acquisition and reasoning alignment training, leading to a multitude of benefits: (1) it outperforms standard explicit CoT methods by up to 6.22%, (2) it reduces training cost by up to 65% GPU hours, and (3) it speeds up inference by up to 71.3%. These results position PauseRec as a lightweight alternative to explicit rationale generation, enabling more effective and efficient LLM-based GR.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

When Do We Need LLMs? A Diagnostic for Language-Driven Bandits

arXiv:2604.05859v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study Contextual Multi-Armed Bandits (CMABs) for non-episodic decision-making problems where the context includes both textual and numerical information (e.g., recommendation systems, dynamic portfolio adjustments, offer selection; all frequent problems in finance). While Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to these settings, utilizing LLMs for reasoning at every decision step is computationally expensive, and uncertainty estimates are difficult to obtain. To address this, we introduce LLMP-UCB, a bandit algorithm that derives uncertainty estimates from LLMs via repeated inference. However, our experiments demonstrate that lightweight numerical bandits operating on text embeddings (dense or Matryoshka) match or exceed the accuracy of LLM-based solutions at a fraction of their cost. We further show that embedding dimensionality is a practical lever on the exploration-exploitation balance, enabling cost-performance tradeoffs without prompt complexity. Finally, to guide practitioners, we propose a geometric diagnostic based on the arms' embeddings to decide when to use LLM-driven reasoning versus a lightweight numerical bandit. Our results provide a principled deployment framework for cost-effective, uncertainty-aware decision systems with broad applicability across AI use cases.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Grounded Inference: Principles for Deterministically Encapsulated Generative Models

Authors:

arXiv:2606.19753v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The incorporation of generative models into traditional computational systems presents both enormous opportunity and tremendous peril. Although many early adopters have realized these perils at great expense, the field still requires foundational frameworks to de-risk incorporation of AI into traditional systems. This manuscript establishes this foundation through the definition of four specific primitives of AI blended architecture, designed to enable deterministic encapsulation of probabilistic models. It further establishes two overarching anti-patterns broadly represented across industry to serve as warnings for engineers in this field. This framework was designed to enable successful integration of AI into traditional systems while providing a foundation upon which generative model providers could build the next generation of generative model interfaces.

10.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Dengue and chikungunya virus transmission in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo

Dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) are understudied in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and across Africa despite evidence of transmission. We measured DENV and CHIKV IgG seroprevalences in Kinshasa Province, DRC, by antigen-capture ELISA, using dried blood spots from 2021. Force of infection (FOI) was estimated from age-stratified seroprevalences using Bayesian catalytic modeling. Among 1,250 participants, DENV IgG seroprevalence was 38.1% (95% CI: 34.5%-41.8%), increasing with age, and highest within peri-urban Kimpoko sites (54.9%). CHIKV IgG seroprevalence was 24.2% (95% CI: 21.1%-27.6%), increasing with age and comparable between peri-urban Kimpoko and rural Bu, with few seropositives in the city-center. DENV-CHIKV IgG co-occurrence was detected in 12.8% of participants. Time-varying FOI models provided best fit to age-stratified seroprevalences, with spatial variation detected. Sustained DENV and CHIKV circulation across Kinshasa highlights an under-appreciated transmission risk and underscores the need for strengthened arboviral surveillance in the DRC and surrounding region.

11.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-11

DivQuant: Estimation of Species Richness and Entropy from Small Samples

Estimating diversity properties of discrete distributions from a small observed sample is a fundamental problem in algorithmic statistics that has applications in many fields, in particular bioinformatics, but also in ecology or linguistics. The two most common diversity measures are the number of distinct elements in a multiset, also referred to as species richness in ecology or alpha diversity in microbial analysis, and the Shannon entropy, also referred to as evenness. Estimating these properties from a small sample is particularly challenging for distributions with many rare elements. Thus, many estimators have been proposed in the past that, in practice, work well for different types of distributions. We present DivQuant, an optimization-based, extrapolating richness and entropy estimator with three contributions. First, we formulate the upsampling problem as a convex quadratic program with a Neyman {chi}2 objective. Unlike the linear program of its predecessor RichnEst, DivQuant admits confidence intervals via {chi}2 test inversion that are empirically well-calibrated. Second, we replace RichnEst's fixed-threshold fingerprint truncation with the rare/abundant fingerprint split of Valiant and Valiant, which strongly reduces problem size and preserves enough degrees of freedom for the confidence-interval program to remain valid and feasible. Third, we plug the optimal population fingerprint returned by the program into Shannon's entropy formula to obtain an entropy estimate. DivQuant attains close-to-nominal 95% confidence intervals in essentially all tested regimes, including six simulated distribution families, Tara Oceans microbiome data, and 10X Genomics scRNA-seq data, while competing state-of-the-art methods (RichnEst, iNext, PreSeq) miss the true richness in up to 80% of instances, well above the nominal 5%. In addition, DivQuant outperforms classical asymptotic entropy estimators (Miller-Madow, CAE) and the extrapolating iNext estimator. Running times remain competitive, with DivQuant typically completing in seconds. DivQuant is available as a command-line tool at https://gitlab.com/rahmannlab/divquant.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Softmax as Linear Attention in the Large-Prompt Regime: a Measure-based Perspective

arXiv:2512.11784v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Softmax attention is a central component of transformer architectures, yet its nonlinear structure poses significant challenges for theoretical analysis. We develop a unified, measure-based framework for studying single-layer softmax attention under both finite and infinite prompts. For i.i.d. Gaussian inputs, we lean on the fact that the softmax operator converges in the infinite-prompt limit to a linear operator acting on the underlying input-token measure. Building on this insight, we establish non-asymptotic concentration bounds for the output and gradient of softmax attention, quantifying how rapidly the finite-prompt model approaches its infinite-prompt counterpart, and prove that this concentration remains stable along the entire training trajectory in general in-context learning settings with sub-Gaussian tokens. In the case of in-context linear regression, we use the tractable infinite-prompt dynamics to analyze training at finite prompt length. Our results allow optimization analyses developed for linear attention to transfer directly to softmax attention when prompts are sufficiently long, showing that large-prompt softmax attention inherits the analytical structure of its linear counterpart. This, in turn, provides a principled and broadly applicable toolkit for studying the training dynamics and statistical behavior of softmax attention layers in large prompt regimes.

13.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Artificial Intelligence-informed mobile behavioural interventions to support adolescents mental health in schools: protocol for a randomised controlled trial using the MindCraft app

Background: Children and young people (CYP) are particularly affected by mental health problems. Mobile apps provide a scalable and accessible approach to adolescent mental health support, and schools are well-positioned to address multiple risk factors and deliver large-scale interventions. By combining active (self-reported) and passive (sensor-derived) data, mobile apps can model mental states and deliver context-aware support. Artificial Intelligence (AI) enables adaptive, context-aware recommendations tailored to each user. However, there is limited research on AI-based mental health interventions in community CYP. MindCraft is a mobile app designed to monitor adolescents mental health using active and passive data and provide AI-informed recommendations ("nudges"). This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of personalised AI nudges delivered through MindCraft on improving mental health outcomes among adolescents in schools in the United Kingdom. Methods: The study is a three-arm RCT using a prospective cohort of secondary school students aged 14-19. Following informed consent, participants complete a baseline online assessment at school and download MindCraft. The primary outcome is the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire global and subscale scores. Secondary outcomes include the Eating Disorders Diagnostic Scale, the Sleep Condition Indicator Questionnaire, the Self-Injurious Thoughts and Behaviours Interview, the Self-Efficacy Questionnaire for Children and the World Health Organisation-Five Well-Being Index. Participants are randomised to: (1) an AI-informed intervention group receiving personalised nudges, (2) an active control receiving non-personalised nudges, or (3) a control group with self-monitoring only. Participants use the app for four weeks, with follow-up at one month. Repeated-measures analyses will assess changes across time points. Discussion: We hypothesise that AI nudges will have a greater positive effect on mental health outcomes at one month than general nudges and self-monitoring. Our findings will provide key evidence on the effectiveness of personalised mobile AI recommendations for adolescents mental health and inform school-based mental health prevention and early intervention. This study will contribute evidence on the ethical, acceptable, and scalable integration of AI-enabled digital mental health tools within public health and educational systems, with implications for the design of future digital public health interventions and policies supporting their safe integration in schools.

14.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Probing PbTe-Pb nanowire devices with radio-frequency reflectometry

arXiv:2606.04544v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We report the implementation of radio-frequency (rf) reflectometry on selective-area-grown PbTe-Pb nanowire devices on a CdTe substrate. These nanowires are predicted to host Majorana zero modes. We demonstrate the compatibility of the rf technique, including both resistive and capacitive sensing, with these nanowires. The effect of dielectric loss from the CdTe substrate is quantitatively characterized. Furthermore, the feasibility of rf reflectometry is verified under finite magnetic fields where zero-energy modes can emerge. Our results establish the fast control of PbTe quantum devices, paving the way for their applications in topological quantum computation.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Evaluation of AutoML Frameworks for IDS under Imbalanced Data Conditions of the NSL-KDD Dataset

arXiv:2606.12611v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This work investigates the impact of severe class imbalance on the performance of automated machine learning (AutoML) frameworks for multiclass network intrusion detection using the NSL-KDD dataset. Unlike previous studies that simplify the problem through binary classification or minority-class removal, we preserve the original five-class distribution, including highly underrepresented attacks such as R2L and U2R, enabling a realistic evaluation of imbalance-sensitive learning behavior. Nine open-source AutoML frameworks were analyzed under a unified and reproducible experimental protocol, considering differences in architectural design, ensemble strategies, validation procedures, hyperparameter optimization, and imbalance-handling mechanisms. The results demonstrate that frameworks incorporating ensemble learning and imbalance-aware optimization achieve better minority-class discrimination. PyCaret obtained the best overall performance, reaching 66\% macro-F1, followed by AutoGluon with 55\%, whereas frameworks lacking native balancing support exhibited significant degradation in minority-class detection capability. The analysis further shows that accuracy-oriented optimization alone is insufficient for highly imbalanced IDS scenarios, since high-weighted metrics may coexist with poor generalization on rare attack categories. As a contribution, this work establishes a standardized benchmark for AutoML-based intrusion detection under severe multiclass imbalance, highlighting current architectural limitations and the need for native integration of imbalance-aware optimization, resampling, and stratified evaluation strategies into automated learning pipelines. The source code is publicly available.

16.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

The circulating blood proteome of childhood acute leukemia

The circulating blood proteome provides a systemic readout of disease biology and holds promise for advancing diagnostics and disease monitoring in pediatric leukemia. Here, we profiled 3072 proteins in diagnostic serum from 54 children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), 21 with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), and 12 healthy controls using the Olink Proximity Extension Assay. We observed profound alterations in circulating protein levels in leukemia patients compared with controls and identified immunophenotype-specific proteins, including SIGLEC15 in B-cell precursor ALL (BCP-ALL), NOTCH1 in T-ALL, and CEBPA in AML, all which remained high even in patients with low (

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Would you still call this Dax? Novel Visual References in VLMs and Humans

Vision-language models (VLMs), like human learners, are frequently exposed to new visual concepts, but how they map novel visual references to language after exposure remains largely underexplored, particularly when those references contradict prior knowledge from pre-training. To study this, we present the Novel Visual References Dataset (NVRD): 19,176 images spanning 90 visual concepts across different levels of visual novelty, each with up to 20 increasingly perturbed versions of the original object to probe generalization. Unlike prior work on visual augmentations of familiar concepts, NVRD comprises entirely novel, open-ended stimuli constructed from scratch, mirroring how humans encounter genuinely new concepts. We evaluate 3 open- and 2 closed-source models alongside 2,400 human judgments for direct human-model comparison, and find that (i) models struggle to acquire novel concepts in-context when they contradict prior knowledge, and (ii) while models and humans show correlated sensitivity to visual perturbations, models significantly overgeneralize, extending learned labels to stimuli that humans reject. We contribute NVRD as a corpus and benchmark for research on visual concept learning in both humans and machines.

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

LLM-based Visual Code Completion for Aerospace Geometric Design

Recent advances in both Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs) have seen a step change in their ability to perform visual code completion, but the aerospace industry, which prioritizes safety and explainabilty over rapid LLM adoption, currently has no publicly announced LLM-based geometric design copilot systems in commercial use by aerospace Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). This paper presents a LLM-based visual programming copilot application for aerospace engineering design tasks, using a visual programming variant of the ReAct methodology and GPT 5.4. In addition to the copilot, we describe Wingbuilder, a new Grasshopper plugin library with custom components for aerospace-specific geometry abstraction, and an associated Aerospace Visual Programming Dataset (AVPD) with 18 aerospace expert designed tasks at different levels of difficulty alongside ground truth solutions. We evaluate our copilot application with a user trial involving two experienced aerospace engineers from a large aircraft manufacturing company. We find our copilot visual programming ReAct methodology was successful in generating suggestions that participants found helpful, but slow ReAct inference times limit its usefulness to more complex time-consuming tasks where waiting for good copilot solution suggestion was worthwhile. Participants reported they liked the tool and would be willing to use it in the future.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Diffusion-based Cumulative Adversarial Purification for Vision Language Models

Vision Language Models (VLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in multimodal understanding, yet their susceptibility to adversarial perturbations poses a significant threat to their reliability in real-world applications. Despite often being imperceptible to humans, these perturbations can drastically alter model outputs, leading to erroneous interpretations and decisions. This paper introduces DiffCAP, a novel diffusion-based purification strategy that can effectively neutralize adversarial corruptions in VLMs. We theoretically establish a provable recovery region in the forward diffusion process and meanwhile quantify the convergence rate of semantic variation with respect to VLMs. These findings manifest that adversarial effects monotonically fade as diffusion unfolds. Guided by this principle, DiffCAP leverages noise injection with a similarity threshold of VLM embeddings as an adaptive criterion, before reverse diffusion restores a clean and reliable representation for VLM inference. Through extensive experiments across six datasets with three VLMs under varying attack strengths in three task scenarios, we show that DiffCAP outperforms existing defense techniques by a substantial margin. Notably, DiffCAP significantly reduces both hyperparameter tuning complexity and the required diffusion time, thereby accelerating the denoising process. Equipped with theorems and empirical support, DiffCAP provides a robust and practical solution for securely deploying VLMs in adversarial environments. The source code is available at https://github.com/JasonFu1998/DiffCAP.

20.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

Future Dynamic 3D Reconstruction: A 3D World Model with Disentangled Ego-Motion

Forecasting the evolution of dynamic environments is crucial for autonomous agents. While generative world models have recently achieved high photorealism in 2D video synthesis by mixing ego-motion and environmental dynamics within the image plane, they exhibit physical inconsistencies, such as morphing or vanishing objects, especially over long time horizons. In this paper, we propose FR3D, a world model that predicts a persistent 3D latent representation for future dynamic 3D reconstruction. Unlike prior works that treat the world as a sequence of image-based features, FR3D explicitly decouples the 3D evolution of the scene from the agent's trajectory, treating the inferred ego-motion as a latent proxy for action. This disentanglement resolves the ambiguities between self-motion and world-motion, ensuring geometric consistency into the future. Furthermore, we introduce a teacher-student distillation strategy that leverages the spatial "common sense" of off-the-shelf foundation models, leading to robust zero-shot generalization. Extensive experiments demonstrate FR3D's strong performance for future dynamic 3D reconstruction from monocular observations across multiple datasets, even 2 seconds into the future. Project page: https://fr3d-wm.github.io.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

When Agent Automation Becomes Profitable: Quantifying and Insuring Autonomous AI Risk through Trace-Economic Underwriting

arXiv:2606.16465v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI agents can now take irreversible actions in operational systems, but agent-caused losses are still not clearly assigned, priced, or transferred. Providers often disclaim consequential damages, users are left with uncompensated losses, and default human review limits the efficiency gains of automation. We ask when autonomous AI deployment can become economically acceptable despite failure risk. Our answer is to quantify risk at the customer-task-trace episode level and transfer it through insurance. Automation is acceptable when its expected benefit exceeds the premium, control cost, and remaining risk. This requires a defined role with bounded permissions and comparable traces. We introduce trace-economic underwriting, which maps tool-use traces to customer exposure and claimable loss, then uses this representation for pricing, control, and risk transfer. It uses deterministic economic labels rather than an LLM judge. In our trace-to-loss testbed, trace-economic pricing reduces pricing MAE from $17.7K to $569 and removes regressive cross-subsidy. A 300-trace expert audit accepts 295 labels unchanged. On 1,000 real SWE-smith traces, trace-conditioned controls reduce CVaR95 by 72%. Theorem~1 gives a finite-sample scope condition. We release code, labels, and audit sheets.

22.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

LLMs Can Better Capture Human Judgments–With the Right Prompts

Are large language models (LLMs) bad at capturing human judgment? Two commonly stated limitations are that LLMs fail to capture full distributions of responses, and that their judgments are unstable across wording variations. We demonstrate simple prompting strategies that mitigate these limitations. Across two datasets–a U.S.-representative set of 144 moral scenarios and 38 moral beliefs from the International Social Survey Programme's Family and Changing Gender Roles module covering 32 countries–we show how simple elicitation techniques help improve AI-human alignment. First, prompting models to report standard deviations and response proportions recovers the full range of human responses better than common strategies. Second, ensuring scenarios are clear to human participants–as reflected in human confusion ratings–boosts model alignment, and LLMs can track human confusion ratings. At the same time, we find that LLMs' estimates of their own error are poorly calibrated, though they can predict human variability relatively well. These results suggest that asking better questions to LLMs can yield better answers.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

HilDA: Hierarchical Distillation with Diffusion for Advancing Self-Supervised LiDAR Pre-trainin

arXiv:2606.20189v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Leveraging Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) for camera-to-LiDAR knowledge distillation offers a promising solution to the scarcity of annotated data needed to represent the immense geometric and kinematic diversity of real-world autonomous driving (AD). However, current approaches typically treat VFMs as black-box teachers, relying exclusively on frame-wise feature similarity. Consequently, they do not fully exploit the teacher's layer-wise semantic structure and global context, as well as the rich spatiotemporal information inherent in LiDAR sequences. We propose HilDA, a self-supervised pretraining framework for LiDAR backbones that better captures the semantic what and geometric where needed for driving tasks. HilDA combines hierarchical distillation comprising multi-layer distillation for progressive semantic alignment and global context distillation for scene-level semantics, with a temporal occupancy diffusion objective promoting spatiotemporal consistency. Models pre-trained with HilDA achieve state-of-the-art results on cross-modal distillation benchmarks and outperform models trained via prior distillation approaches on 3D object detection, scene flow, and semantic occupancy prediction. Code available at: https://maxiuw.github.io/hilda.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Evaluating deep learning models for fault diagnosis of a rotating machinery with epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty

arXiv:2412.18980v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Uncertainty-aware deep learning (DL) models recently gained attention in fault diagnosis as a way to promote the reliable detection of faults when out-of-distribution (OOD) data arise from unseen faults (epistemic uncertainty) or the presence of noise (aleatoric uncertainty). In this paper, we present the first comprehensive comparative study of state-of-the-art uncertainty-aware DL architectures for fault diagnosis in rotating machinery, where different scenarios affected by epistemic uncertainty and different types of aleatoric uncertainty are investigated. The selected architectures include sampling by dropout, Bayesian neural networks, and deep ensembles. Moreover, to distinguish between in-distribution and OOD data in the different scenarios two uncertainty thresholds, one of which is introduced in this paper, are alternatively applied. Our empirical findings offer guidance to practitioners and researchers who have to deploy real-world uncertainty-aware fault diagnosis systems. In particular, they reveal that, in the presence of epistemic uncertainty, all DL models are capable of effectively detecting, on average, a substantial portion of OOD data across all the scenarios. However, deep ensemble models show superior performance, independently of the uncertainty threshold used for discrimination. In the presence of aleatoric uncertainty, the noise level plays an important role. Specifically, low noise levels hinder the models' ability to effectively detect OOD data. Even in this case, however, deep ensemble models exhibit a milder degradation in performance, dominating the others. These achievements, combined with their shorter inference time, make deep ensemble architectures the preferred choice.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

ScaleToT: Generalizing Structured LLM Reasoning for Billion-Scale Low-Activity User Modeling

arXiv:2606.24605v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate user modeling often depends on rich interaction histories, which are unavailable for billions of low-activity users. Large Language Models (LLMs) can infer latent user states from static profiles, but this reasoning becomes unreliable when profiles are sparse, and applying an LLM to billions of users is prohibitively expensive. We present ScaleToT, which learns structured reasoning from a small LLM-processed subset and extends it to the broader low-activity user population. To improve reasoning reliability, ScaleToT constructs typed user-state chains with a bounded entropy-guided Tree-of-Thought (ToT) refinement procedure. To make this structured reasoning usable from sparse profiles, the teacher-curated chains are used to train a student model on static profiles through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and Outcome-Driven Segment-Aware Implicit Reward Policy Optimization (OSIPO). ScaleToT then transfers the student's reasoning representations to a lightweight profile encoder, providing shared reasoning signals for the remaining users without LLM inference. We evaluate ScaleToT on lifetime value (LTV) prediction in a billion-scale advertising deployment. A randomized online A/B test increased LT30 by 6.738\%, while offline reasoning covered only 7.32\% of the potential population, greatly reducing compute cost compared with full-population reasoning.