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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Quantile Transfer for Reliable Operating Point Selection in Visual Place Recognition

Visual Place Recognition (VPR) is a key component for localisation in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-denied environments, but its performance critically depends on selecting an image matching threshold (operating point) that balances precision and recall. Thresholds are typically hand-tuned offline for a specific environment and fixed during deployment, leading to degraded performance under environmental change. We propose a method that automatically selects the operating point of a VPR system to maximise recall at 100% precision. The method uses a small calibration traversal with known correspondences and transfers thresholds to deployment via quantile normalisation of similarity score distributions. This quantile transfer ensures that thresholds remain stable across calibration sizes and query subsets. Experiments with seven state-of-the-art VPR techniques across five benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed approach consistently outperforms existing baselines, enabling the underlying VPR technique to operate at 100% precision in approximately twice as many deployment scenarios (median improvement), while retrieving up to 29% more correct matches at that precision. The method eliminates manual tuning by adapting to new environments and generalising across operating conditions. Our code is available at https://github.com/DhyeyR-007/Quantile-Transfer-for-Reliable-VPR.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Estimating carbon pools in the European Shelf sea environment: replacing reanalysis by model-informed machine learning?

Authors:

arXiv:2508.10178v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Shelf seas are important for the economy and the carbon cycle, but shelf sea observations for carbon pools are often sparse, or highly uncertain. An alternative can be provided by carbon reanalyses (whether assimilating proxy variables, such as chlorophyll-$a$, or directly carbon), but these are often expensive to run. We propose to use a computationally cheap ensemble of neural networks (i.e. deep ensemble) to learn the relationship between the directly observable (atmospheric, riverine and ocean) variables and marine carbon pools from a coupled physics-biogeochemistry model. The deep ensemble was trained on a North-West European Shelf (NWES) physical-biogeochemistry model free run simulation. After training, the deep ensemble was run using inputs from the NWES reanalysis instead of the free run, demonstrating that it can efficiently predict several NWES carbon pools (e.g., detritus, zooplankton, heterotrophic bacteria) in much better agreement with the reanalysis than the free run, while also providing uncertainty information. We further show that the deep ensemble performs similarly well when it is driven directly by the observations assimilated into the reanalysis, with the limitation that carbon pools can then be predicted only at the observed locations and times. We focus on explainability of the results and demonstrate potential use of the deep ensembles for future climate what-if scenarios. We suggest that model-informed machine learning presents a viable alternative to expensive reanalyses and could complement observations, wherever they are missing and/or highly uncertain.

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Low-Burden Data Augmentation for Dysarthric ASR via Zero-Shot Voice Cloning

arXiv:2606.19823v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Automatic speech recognition remains unreliable for dysarthric speech due to data scarcity and high inter-speaker variability. While synthetic data can address these gaps, traditional methods often require extensive speaker-specific data, reintroducing the collection bottleneck. We investigate zero-shot voice cloning as a low-burden augmentation strategy, using Higgs Audio V2 to clone speakers in the TORGO dataset. We fine-tune (FT) Whisper-medium on cloned, real, and hybrid data and evaluate on held-out real speech. Compared to the zero-shot (31.62%), Clone FT achieved a competitive 26.00% WER, nearly matching the 24.44% and 25.12% seen with Real and Hybrid FT, respectively. Notably, Clone and Hybrid FT outperform Real FT for moderate-severe speakers. Clone FT achieves the best results (11.45% relative) in cross-corpus evaluation on the SAP-1102. These results suggest that zero-shot cloning provides scalable training data that circumvents the costly data collection bottleneck.

04.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Who funds stroke trials in Europe? A survey of funding sources for randomised controlled stroke trials by the European Stroke Organisation Trials Alliance (ESOTA) network

Abstract Aims and scope Evidence from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) has transformed stroke care. There are no systematically collected data on the amount of public funding, critical to delivering trials, going into stroke RCTs. To understand the extent of stroke RCT funding by national and EU funding bodies across Europe, the European Stroke Organisation Trials Alliance (ESOTA) conducted a survey of its member nations. Methods This is an observational study of research funding in Europe. The ESOTA steering group sent an electronic survey to the leads of the 16 participating national networks from 14 countries. Structured survey questions included who the funding bodies were in each country, the number of RCT applications put forward for public national or EU funding, the number of successful and failed applications, and the amount of funding granted between 01/01/2022 and 31/12/2023. Results Responses were received from 13 of 14 participating countries. There was significant variation in the number of grant applications submitted by individual countries, ranging from 0-17 during the 24-month survey period. The median number of funded studies per country was 1 (IQR 3, range 0-9) representing a median success rate of 47.1 % (IQR 21.1-59.4%), with no RCTs granted joint European funding. Conclusions Our survey highlights significant inequities in stroke trial funding across Europe. Given the encouraging rate of successful applications overall, it is important for all member networks to submit proposals. This is particularly pertinent for multicentre trials, given the evolution of evidence base in stroke towards large trials, across diverse populations.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Causal Clothes-Invariant Feature Learning for Cloth-Changing Person Re-ID

In cloth-changing person re-identification (CCReID), it is critical to learn clothes-invariant feature, which can provide discriminative ID features that remain robust against clothing changes. However, a spurious correlation currently limits existing ReID methods from effectively extracting these clothing-invariant features. This spurious correlation arises from clothing ownership: clothing is rarely shared across different identities, so models tend to memorize clothing cues for identity recognition, and this strategy generalizes poorly to unseen clothing. In this paper, we propose Causal Clothes-Invariant Learning (CCIL), which explicitly shifts CC-ReID from likelihood learning P (Y|X) to causal intervention learning P (Y|do(X)) to block the clothing shortcut. CCIL realizes this intervention through three modules: a Confounder Dictionary, an Intervention Module, and Disentangle Regularization. The causality-based modeling makes the entire model naturally clothes-invariant, effectively preventing the capture of spurious correlations in feature learning. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of CCIL. On PRCC and DeepChange datasets, CCIL achieves Rank-1 accuracies of 66.4% and 59.2%, outperforming state-of-the-art methods by 1.4 and 4.1 percentage points, respectively.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

FACTR 2: Learning External Force Sensing for Commodity Robot Arms Improves Policy Learning

arXiv:2606.12406v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Contact-rich manipulation requires force sensitivity, but many robot arms lack dedicated force sensors due to their high cost. We present Neural External Torque Estimation (NEXT), a data-driven method that estimates external joint torques without needing any dedicated force sensors. NEXT trains in 1 minute from only 10 minutes of free-motion data, yet achieves estimates comparable to dedicated joint-torque sensors. NEXT enables force-feedback teleoperation on low-cost arms and improves policy learning through Force-Informed Re-Sampling Training (FIRST), which up-samples pre-contact and contact segments during behavior cloning. Across five long-horizon tasks, FIRST outperforms prior force-aware policies by over 17% in task progress. Together, NEXT and FIRST bring force-aware teleoperation and policy learning to off-the-shelf robots without additional sensing hardware. Video results and code are available at https://jasonjzliu.com/factr2

07.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Operational Tube-Sector Theory of Quantum State Distinguishability Under Generalized Symmetries

Authors:

arXiv:2606.19678v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A variational principle for quantum-state distinguishability is established in many-body systems with generalized symmetries, including noninvertible cases described by fusion categories. Standard fidelity and symmetry-resolved diagnostics emerge as coarse-grained limits of a more refined operational structure. When symmetry actions terminate at entanglement cuts, distinguishability is governed by boundary tube algebras within a symmetry-constrained measurement resource theory. The physically admissible instruments are characterized by complete positivity, entanglement-cut locality, boundary-module covariance, and sequential stability. The resulting optimal measurement structure is uniquely fixed by the center of the boundary tube algebra, $\mathcal{A}_{\mathrm{phys}} = Z\!\left(\mathrm{Tube}_{\mathcal{C}}(\mathcal{M}_A)\right)$, whose primitive idempotents define tube-sector probabilities that refine fidelity-based and symmetry-resolved descriptions. The associated tube positive-operator-valued measures (POVM) are extremal and yield optimal one-shot hypothesis-testing distinguishability under symmetry constraints. The construction is universal across fusion categories and independent of microscopic realization.

08.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-19

OmniPath Metabo: chemical structures, interactions and mechanisms to study the metabolome

Mechanistic and functional analysis of omics data largely relies on the incorporation of prior knowledge; however, connecting metabolomics data and knowledge is a major methodological challenge. This is largely driven by the diverse prior knowledge being fragmented across many databases requiring the merging of different database records across chemical structures, identifiers, and varying levels of structural specificity. Hence, this limits mechanistic interpretation and functional characterisation of the metabolome. Here, we present OmniPath Metabo, a comprehensive, harmonized, metabolome-centric database covering metabolites, lipids, food-derived compounds, and small molecule drugs, along with their associated receptors, transporters, enzymes, reactions, allosteric regulators, and disease associations. OmniPath Metabo harmonizes attributes using controlled vocabularies and ontologies, structures and built-in cheminformatics to map identifiers and track ambiguity. OmniPath Metabo is built directly from 40+ original resources and is freely accessible via an interactive web app and API at metabo.omnipathdb.org. OmniPath Metabo enables dynamic, context-specific construction of subnetworks to serve dedicated purposes, such as cell-cell communication or integrated multi-omics metabolite-driven regulation, connecting reactions, allosteric regulation, metabolite-receptor and metabolite-transporter interactions. Combining it with the over 170 other resources in OmniPath, it can be used for integrated networks of signaling, gene regulation, and metabolism. We showcase the application of OmniPath Metabo by analysing publicly available metabolomics data of lung cancer cell lines and metabolic footprints to mutational patterns. In summary, OmniPath Metabo transforms fragmented resources into a harmonised prior knowledge framework for a mechanistic and functional analysis of the metabolome.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Sample-Efficient Hypergradient Estimation for Decentralized Bi-Level Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2603.14867v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Many strategic decision-making problems, such as environment design for warehouse robots, can be naturally formulated as bi-level reinforcement learning (RL), where a leader agent optimizes its objective while a follower solves a Markov decision process (MDP) conditioned on the leader's decisions. In many situations, a fundamental challenge arises when the leader cannot intervene in the follower's optimization process; it can only observe the optimization outcome. We address this decentralized setting by deriving the hypergradient of the leader's objective, i.e., the gradient of the leader's strategy that accounts for changes in the follower's optimal policy. Unlike prior hypergradient-based methods that require extensive data for repeated state visits or rely on gradient estimators whose complexity can increase substantially with the high-dimensional leader's decision space, we leverage the Boltzmann covariance trick to derive an alternative hypergradient formulation. This enables efficient hypergradient estimation solely from interaction samples, even when the leader's decision space is high-dimensional. Additionally, to our knowledge, this is the first method that enables hypergradient-based optimization for 2-player Markov games in decentralized settings. Experiments highlight the impact of hypergradient updates and demonstrate our method's effectiveness in both discrete and continuous state tasks.

10.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

TokenPilot: Cache-Efficient Context Management for LLM Agents

As LLM agents are deployed in long-horizon sessions, context accumulation drives up inference costs. Existing approaches utilize text pruning or dynamic memory eviction to minimize token footprints; however, their unconstrained sequence mutations alter layouts, introducing prefix mismatches and cache invalidation. This reveals a critical trade-off between text sparsity and prompt cache continuity. To address this, we present TokenPilot, a dual-granularity context management framework. Globally, Ingestion-Aware Compaction acts as a framework harness to stabilize prompt prefixes and eliminate open-world environmental noise at the ingestion gate. Locally, Lifecycle-Aware Eviction monitors the ongoing residual utility of context segments, enforcing a conservative batch-turn schedule to offload content segments only when task relevance expires. Experiments on PinchBench and Claw-Eval under both isolated and continuous modes demonstrate that TokenPilot reduces costs by 61% and 56% in isolated mode, and 61% and 87% in continuous mode, while maintaining competitive performance compared to prior systems. TokenPilot has been integrated into LightMem2 at https://github.com/zjunlp/LightMem2.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Externalizing Research Synthesis and Validation in AI Scientists through a Research Harness

arXiv:2606.18874v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI systems can increasingly automate scientific workflows, but the reasoning that links prior evidence, generated ideas, experiments and final claims often remains implicit inside model inference. Here we introduce Xcientist, a research harness that externalizes research synthesis and experimental validation into inspectable, contract-governed processes. Xcientist organizes literature evidence, idea states, implementation plans, ablation records and repair traces as persistent research artifacts, so that generated mechanisms can be grounded, executed, tested and revised without losing their evidential basis. We identify claim drift as a failure mode of automated research, where runnable artifacts no longer support the mechanism originally claimed. Across training-free memory systems, graph-structured traffic forecasting and multi-scale physics-informed neural networks, Xcientist preserves traceable trajectories from problem formulation to mechanism design, validation and bounded revision. These results suggest that AI scientists should be evaluated not only by their final artifacts, but by whether their synthesis and validation processes remain attributable, inspectable and scientifically accountable.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Models

arXiv:2606.19868v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Although large language models (LLMs) have shown strong capabilities across a wide range of tasks, their outputs often remain unreliable and may contain hallucinations, making uncertainty estimation (UE) essential for building trustworthy LLMs. In practice, many mainstream LLMs are only accessible through restricted APIs, where internal signals such as logits and hidden states are unavailable, making black-box UE especially important. However, existing work on black-box UE for LLMs remains fragmented in methodology and lacks a unified empirical comparison. To address this gap, we present a systematic review of black-box UE methods and organize them into five categories: verbalization-based, sampling-based, explanation-based, multi-agent, and hybrid methods. We further build a unified evaluation framework and benchmark 24 representative methods across 4 models and 4 dataset settings. Our results show that no single method consistently dominates across all settings. Nevertheless, methods that reason over and compare candidates in the answer space are generally effective, and hybrid methods that combine multiple uncertainty signals perform well under most conditions. By releasing the benchmark data and a unified evaluation framework, we aim to facilitate reproducible comparisons and support future research, while our empirical findings provide practical guidance for developing future black-box UE methods for LLMs.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

SciHorizon-GENE: Benchmarking LLM for Life Sciences Inference from Gene Knowledge to Functional Understanding

Large language models (LLMs) have shown growing promise in biomedical research, particularly for knowledge-driven interpretation tasks. However, their ability to reliably reason from gene-level knowledge to functional understanding, a core requirement for knowledge-enhanced cell atlas interpretation, remains largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce SciHorizon-GENE, a large-scale gene-centric benchmark constructed from authoritative biological databases. The benchmark integrates curated knowledge for over 190K human genes and comprises more than 540K questions covering diverse gene-to-function reasoning scenarios relevant to cell type annotation, functional interpretation, and mechanism-oriented analysis. Motivated by behavioral patterns observed in preliminary examinations, SciHorizon-GENE evaluates LLMs along four biologically critical perspectives: research attention sensitivity, hallucination tendency, answer completeness, and literature influence, explicitly targeting failure modes that limit the safe adoption of LLMs in biological interpretation pipelines. We systematically evaluate a wide range of state-of-the-art general-purpose and biomedical LLMs, revealing substantial heterogeneity in gene-level reasoning capabilities and persistent challenges in generating faithful, complete, and literature-grounded functional interpretations. Our benchmark establishes a systematic foundation for analyzing LLM behavior at the gene scale and offers insights for model selection and development, with direct relevance to knowledge-enhanced biological interpretation.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

AutoSpec: Safety Rule Evolution for LLM Agents via Inductive Logic Programming

arXiv:2606.24245v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly automate complex tasks by integrating language models with external tools and environments. However, their autonomy poses significant safety risks: agents may execute destructive commands, leak sensitive data, or violate domain constraints. Existing safety approaches face a fundamental tradeoff: hand-crafted rules are interpretable but brittle, with overly conservative rules blocking safe operations (high false positives) while permissive rules miss unsafe behaviors (high false negatives). Neural classifiers lack the interpretability required for safety-critical deployments. We present AutoSpec, a framework that automatically evolves deployed expert-designed safety rules from user safe/unsafe annotations through counterexample-guided inductive synthesis (CEGIS) guided by inductive logic programming (ILP). Starting from the expert rules and a stream of annotated traces, AutoSpec iteratively evaluates rules, mines false-positive and false-negative counterexamples, uses ILP to learn which predicates discriminate them, generates candidate rule edits, and verifies candidates to select the best revision. The key insight is that ILP efficiently identifies predicates that appear frequently in false negatives but rarely in false positives (or vice versa), dramatically pruning the exponential search space of rule edits. This continues until convergence, producing interpretable rules that balance precision and recall. We evaluate AutoSpec on 291 execution traces spanning code execution and embodied agent domains. AutoSpec raises rule F1 to 0.98 and 0.93 across the two domains, achieving up to 94% false positive reduction while maintaining high recall, and converges within 4-5 iterations. The ILP-guided approach achieves up to 4.8x higher F1 than heuristic CEGIS. The learned rules are human-readable, auditable, and generalize to unseen scenarios.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Geometry-Aware Dataset Condensation for Diffusion Model Training

Dataset condensation aims to construct compact datasets from real data via synthesis or selection. However, existing approaches are ill-suited for diffusion model training: synthetic data generation often yields low-fidelity samples unsuitable for authentic modeling, while real subset selection typically fails to preserve the distributional geometry required by diffusion likelihood objectives. To address this, we propose to reformulate real subset selection as a geometry-aware distribution alignment problem. By incorporating one-sided partial optimal transport, our method selectively aligns a compact subset with the full data distribution while allowing unmatched mass in low-density regions, ensuring the preserved geometric structure necessary for effective diffusion model training. To further ensure distributional fidelity, we complement geometric alignment with lightweight feature-statistics and semantic consistency regularization. An efficient two-stage discrete optimization strategy is proposed to achieve this alignment objective. Extensive experiments across diffusion variants, subset sizes, image resolutions, and training rounds show that our method achieves superior fidelity and distributional coverage in diffusion model training. Codes are available at https://github.com/2018cx/GADC.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Beyond Classification: A Cough Regression Benchmark for Respiratory Acoustic Foundation Models

arXiv:2606.15436v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Respiratory acoustic foundation models (FMs) excel at cough classification, yet their ability to predict continuous health quantities from cough audio remains largely unexplored, despite the clinical value of passive age, BMI, and disease probability estimation in settings where physical measurements are unavailable. We introduce the multi-model, multi-target cough regression benchmark evaluating five FMs (OPERA-CT, OPERA-CE, OPERA-GT, HeAR, M2D+Resp) across six targets on three datasets under subject-disjoint protocols, comparing linear, MLP-small, and full MLP regression heads. MLP-small beats the mean-predictor baseline on all tasks and linear probing in 23 of 30 model x task cases, with full MLP overfitting on small clinical data but recovering on larger sets, revealing a dataset size x head-capacity trade-off. HeAR leads within-dataset age regression on Coswara (9.12 yr MAE); its CIDRZ result is excluded from headline claims owing to possible HeAR-CIDRZ pretraining overlap. OPERA-GT is favored over OPERA-CT on age in all three datasets, with the CIDRZ margin within seed variance, extending a generative-pretraining advantage from breath to cough. HeAR and M2D+Resp reach near-full performance at N = 50 samples while OPERA models require N = 400. Cross-dataset transfer is strongly asymmetric as large diverse data generalises to small clinical populations (CoughVID to CIDRZ: -0.17 yr) but not vice versa (CIDRZ to Coswara: +2.43 yr, +26.6%).

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

PolyAlign: Conditional Human-Distribution Alignment

Post-training methods such as supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and preference optimization typically align language models toward a single global assistant behavior. While effective for improving average helpfulness, this can suppress the natural variation of human responses across languages, tasks, and dialogue settings. We study this problem as conditional human-distribution alignment: models should match the human response distribution appropriate to the current interaction context, rather than a universal response style. We introduce PolyAlign, a distribution-aware alignment framework that organizes bilingual interaction data into bucket-specific human reference distributions defined by language, interaction track, response family, and length. PolyAlign combines Bucket-Aware SFT, which balances optimization across heterogeneous buckets, with Human-Distribution Preference Optimization (HDPO), which regularizes preference learning using critic-estimated distance to bucket-specific human support. Across a bilingual evaluation suite covering English and Chinese single- and multi-turn settings, PolyAlign improves conditional naturalness and distributional faithfulness while preserving competitive task utility. The results suggest that post-training should move beyond global alignment objectives toward interaction-aware alignment with human response distributions.

18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Federated Foundation Language Model Post-Training Should Focus on Open-Source Models

arXiv:2505.23593v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Post-training of foundation language models has emerged as a promising research domain in federated learning (FL) with the goal to enable privacy-preserving model improvements and adaptations to user's downstream tasks. Recent advances in this area adopt centralized post-training approaches that build upon black-box foundation language models where there is no access to model weights and architecture details. Although the use of black-box models has been successful in centralized post-training, their blind replication in FL raises several concerns. Our opinion is that using black-box models in FL contradicts the core principles of federation such as data privacy and autonomy. In this paper, we critically analyze the usage of black-box models in federated post-training, and provide a detailed account of various aspects of openness and their implications for FL.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Identifying Structural Biases from Causal Mechanism Shifts

arXiv:2606.18834v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal discovery methods commonly assume that all data is independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) and that there are no unmeasured variables affecting the system. In practice, these assumptions are often violated, leading to inaccurate inference. In this paper, we study how to identify hidden confounding and selection biases from causal mechanism shifts. In particular, we show that structural biases lead to dependent mechanism shifts. That is, by considering for which variables the mechanisms change given data from different environments, we can tell which variables are unbiased, which are subject to hidden confounding, and which are undergoing selection bias. We formalize this into an empirically testable criterion based on mutual information, and show under which conditions it identifies structural biases. To tell which nodes are subject to what kind of bias, we introduce the StruBI algorithm. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that StruBI works well in practice, accurately recovering affected variable sets and types of biases, outperforming the state-of-the-art by a wide margin.

20.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

GCH1 p.Ser80Asn Confers Risk for Parkinson's Disease in East Asian Populations

Introduction: GCH1 has been implicated in Parkinson's disease (PD), but its risks variants and associations are not well defined. Objectives: To investigate the clinical relevance and PD risk associated with the GCH1 p.Ser80Asn variant. Methods: We first identified a segregating GCH1 p.Ser80Asn variant in a Malaysian Chinese PD family via whole genome sequencing (WGS). We assessed its risk association using multi-ancestry WGS data from the Global Parkinson's Genetics Program (GP2) (n=22,372PD vs n=8,826Controls) and meta-analysis of East Asian (EAS) cohorts (n=4,712PD vs 38,733Controls). Clinico-demographic details of affected variant carriers were collated. Results: The GCH1 p.Ser80Asn variant was enriched in GP2 EAS PD populations (n=9/2,757; 0.33%) but not detected in other ancestries. Meta-analysis revealed increased PD risk in EAS populations (odds ratio:5.1; 95%CI:2.3-10.7; p=2.89x10-5). Affected carriers (mean age at onset:56.3+-12.5 years) had additional occurrence of dystonia, while dementia was rare. Conclusions: The GCH1 p.Ser80Asn variant is a rare, EAS-enriched risk variant for PD.

21.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

From Affect Prediction to Affect Forecasting: Evidence for Distinct Information Sources in Longitudinal Text

Modeling dimensional affect in longitudinal text requires distinguishing current affect estimation from future affective change forecasting. Existing approaches often treat each text as an independent observation and apply similar assumptions to both tasks, without testing whether they rely on different information sources. This paper investigates that distinction using longitudinal self-reported ecological essays and feeling-word entries. We propose the Trait–State Affective Prediction (TSAP) framework and its temporal extension E-TSAP for per-text valence and arousal prediction, evaluated on a held-out prediction test set of 1,737 entries from 91 users. We further propose the Affective Change Forecaster Hybrid (ACF-Hybrid) for next-step affective change forecasting, evaluated on a held-out forecasting test set of 46 users. For prediction, E-TSAP achieves composite Pearson correlations of 0.670 for valence and 0.449 for arousal. For forecasting, textual representations perform worse than compact numeric trajectory baselines: the text-inclusive model achieves only r=0.316 for valence and r=0.284 for arousal, whereas a simple prior-state baseline reaches r=0.615 and r=0.670, respectively. ACF-Hybrid, using dimension-specific numeric trajectory features, achieves r=0.659 for valence and $r=0.658$ for arousal. These results show that textual semantics support current affect prediction, whereas future affective change is better captured through prior numeric trajectory dynamics.

22.
PLOS Medicine 2026-06-23

Parental body mass index and offspring childhood body size and eating behaviour: A structural equation modelling analysis in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study

Authors:

by Tom A. Bond, Tom A. McAdams, Nicole M. Warrington, Laurie J. Hannigan, Espen Moen Eilertsen, Ziada Ayorech, Fartein A. Torvik, George Davey Smith, Deborah A. Lawlor, Eivind Ystrom, Alexandra Havdahl, David M. Evans Background The intergenerational transmission of obesity-related traits could propagate an accelerating cycle of obesity, if parental adiposity causally influences offspring adiposity. The extent to which intergenerational obesity associations are due to such causal effects, as opposed to genetic confounding (inheritance), is unclear. We aimed to establish whether associations between parental peri-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and offspring birth weight (BW), BMI until 8 years of age, and 8-year-old eating behaviour are due to genetic confounding. Methods and findings Data were from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study, a prospective population-based birth cohort born between 1999 and 2009 at 50 out of 52 hospital maternity units in Norway. We compared the strength of the associations of maternal pre-pregnancy BMI versus paternal BMI during pregnancy, with offspring outcomes including birth weight and BMI assessed between age 6 months and 8 years of age, and appetite-related eating behaviour traits assessed at age 8 years via the Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (CEBQ), adjusting for potential confounders including parity, parental/grandparental language group and parental age, smoking, education and income). We then used an extended children of twins structural equation model (SEM) to quantify the extent to which associations were due to genetic confounding. Up to 85,866 children (51.3% male) were included in linear regression models, whereas SEM models included up to 50,999 children. Maternal BMI was more strongly associated than paternal BMI with offspring BW, but the maternal-paternal difference decreased for offspring BMI after birth. Greater parental BMI was associated with obesity-related offspring eating behaviours. SEM results indicated that genetic confounding did not explain the association between parental BMI and offspring BW, but explained the majority of the association with offspring BMI from 6 months onwards. For 8-year BMI, genetic confounding explained 79% (95% CI [62, 95]; p = 1.9 × 10−12) of the covariance with maternal BMI and 94% (95% CI [72, 113]; p = 2.7 × 10−14) of the covariance with paternal BMI. Limitations of this study include selective recruitment and attrition, potential bias due to parental assortative mating, and that findings may not generalise beyond high-income country settings with high obesity prevalence. Conclusions We found strong evidence that parent–child BMI associations may primarily be due to genetic confounding. When considered alongside prior evidence, this finding may argue against a strong causal effect of maternal or paternal adiposity on childhood adiposity via intrauterine or periconceptional mechanisms.

23.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Initial-state-dependent dephasing effect in non-Hermitian Su-Schrieffer-Heeger models

arXiv:2606.24185v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Understanding the dynamical evolution of non-Hermitian systems under extra external dissipation is essential. Dephasing, a major realistic dissipation, is conventionally considered detrimental to information processing. However, its impact on non-Hermitian systems remains largely unexplored. Here, we focus on finite-sized non-Hermitian Su-Schrieffer-Heeger (SSH) lattice models with alternating gain and loss in real space and examine the dynamical evolution of the trace distance under pure dephasing. By tuning system parameters, this model supports phases with either parity-time or anti-parity-time symmetries, enabling us to explore the interplay between dephasing and different non-Hermitian symmetries. While the trace distance exhibits distinct dynamical behaviors across the different phases in the absence of dephasing, its response to dephasing is largely symmetry-independent but instead initial-state dependent. By varying initial states, we observe that increasing the dephasing strength can either merely accelerate the decay of the trace distance or stabilize it. Interestingly, we reveal two kinds of dephasing-induced stabilization that differ in the strong dephasing limit: a partial stabilization, where the trace distance approaches a finite value smaller than its initial value in the long-time limit, and a complete stabilization, where the trace distance remains at its initial value throughout the entire evolution. By analyzing the equation of motion, we attribute the initial-state dependent dephasing effect to the alternating gain and loss in the system and confirm its absence in Hermitian counterparts. Furthermore, in the anti-parity-time symmetry unbroken phase, we identify a continuous suppression-upon increasing the dephasing strength-of the otherwise exponential decay of the trace distance seen in the absence of dephasing.

24.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

CFCamo: A Counterfactual Detect-or-Abstain Framework for Camouflaged Object Detection

Vision-language reinforcement learning has recently shown strong target-present localization for camouflaged object detection (COD). Yet localization is only one side of the decision: when the agent faces an ordinary image with no camouflaged target, will it still claim that a camouflaged object exists? Standard COD training and evaluation data are positive-only, so agents optimized under this setting can acquire an over-detect bias, a task-specific form of object hallucination that standard COD evaluation leaves unmeasured. To quantify this target-absent behavior, we construct Counterfactual COD (CF-COD), a paired benchmark that removes the camouflaged target from each held-out COD evaluation image while preserving a plausible background. CF-COD evaluates whether a model detects the target on the original image and abstains on the target-absent counterfactual, summarized by Pair Accuracy (PA). We further introduce CFCamo, a paired counterfactual framework for COD with abstention. For training, CFCamo optimizes a Qwen3-VL-4B-Instruct agent with Counterfactual Sequence Policy Optimization (CSPO), which samples paired original-counterfactual rollouts and uses a Counterfactual Paired Reward (CPR) to couple original-image detection with counterfactual abstention. On CAMO-test, CFCamo improves S_alpha by +3.7 pp over the prior RL-based COD baseline; across CF-COD, it reaches 80.0-90.8% PA. Ablations show that removing counterfactual coupling reduces PA to 1.4-5.2% despite strong target-present COD scores, showing that target-present evaluation alone does not characterize detect-or-abstain behavior. Overall, these results indicate that CFCamo improves COD agents by coupling target-present detection with target-absent abstention, rather than merely strengthening target-present localization. Code and data are available at https://github.com/suhang2000/CFCamo.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Quantile of Means: A Bonus-Free Ensemble Method for Minimax Optimal Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.20107v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Optimal Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms typically rely on carefully constructed count-based uncertainty estimates to drive exploration. Although theoretically sound, such estimates are hard to compute in practical settings and therefore offer limited insight for designing exploration heuristics. Meanwhile, ensembling has emerged as a practical approach, but remains without theoretical justification. Building on a recent ensemble-based method for Multi-Armed Bandits, we propose a quantile-based ensemble method for finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Our simple count-free approach achieves optimal variance-dependent regret bounds, providing theoretical grounding for ensemble-based exploration in RL.