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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Grad Detect: Gradient-Based Hallucination Detection in LLMs

arXiv:2606.24790v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, yet they remain prone to generating hallucinations. Detecting these hallucinations is critical for deploying LLMs reliably in high-stakes applications. We present Grad Detect, a gradient-based approach for predicting hallucinations by analyzing layer-wise gradient patterns from a single forward-backward pass during inference. Our method shows that the internal gradient structure of a model carries rich information about the correctness of its output. This information is not accessible through output-level signals alone. We evaluate Grad Detect on several Q&A benchmarks across both hallucination detection and model abstention prediction, where it consistently outperforms confidence-based and sampling-based baselines. Through comprehensive layer ablation studies across all eleven models from four architectural families, we find that the final five layers concentrate over 97% of the discriminative gradient signal, enabling efficient deployment with minimal performance loss. Grad Detect provides a unified framework for predicting multiple dimensions of LLM reliability, offering strong predictive performance alongside interpretable insights into where and how model failures originate.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Scribby: A Multi-Level LLM Framework for Semantic Video Analysis

As video content continues to expand across educational platforms, recorded lectures, and live-streamed entertainment, the need for efficient and structured analysis of long-form footage has increased [1]. Although many existing AI programs provide high-level video summaries based on AI-generated transcripts [2,3,4,5], these approaches are often limited to coarse overviews and lack detailed analysis of a video's structure, thematic progression, and semantic relationships, all of which are required for comprehensive video analysis. This paper proposes an LLM-based video summarization framework that balances macro-level comprehension with micro-level semantic analysis [6,12,13]. The first stage of the process indexes the video at a micro level by (1) analyzing the full transcript, (2) analyzing individual transcript sentences, and (3) grouping these sentences by semantic similarity using an LLM as a judge [6,13]. Contextual continuity is retained during sentence-level processing by incorporating both the global transcript analysis and adjacent sentence information into each evaluation prompt. This framework establishes a foundation for video analysis tools that visualize semantic chunking and semantic matching through relevance-based heatmaps. Limitations and future expansions of the framework are also discussed.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

RAMAC: Multimodal Risk-Aware Offline Reinforcement Learning and the Role of Behavior Regularization

arXiv:2510.02695v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In safety-critical domains where online data collection is infeasible, offline reinforcement learning (RL) is attractive only if policies achieve high returns without catastrophic lower-tail risk. Prior work on risk-averse offline RL achieves safety at the cost of either (i) value/model-based pessimism or (ii) restricted policy classes that limit expressiveness, whereas diffusion/flow-based expressive generative policies have largely been used in risk-neutral settings. We introduce Risk-Aware Multimodal Actor-Critic (RAMAC), a simple, modular, model-free framework that couples an expressive generative actor (e.g., diffusion/flow) with a distributional critic and optimizes a composite objective that combines Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) with behavioral cloning (BC), enabling risk-sensitive learning in complex multimodal scenarios. Since out-of-distribution (OOD) actions are a major driver of catastrophic failures in offline RL, we further provide an objective-level analysis showing that controlling behavior divergence via BC suppresses OOD actions and stabilizes CVaR. Instantiating RAMAC with a diffusion actor, we illustrate these insights on a 2-D risky bandit and evaluate on Stochastic-D4RL, observing consistent gains in $\mathrm{CVaR}_{0.1}$ while maintaining strong returns. The code and experimental results are available on the \href{https://kaifukazawa.github.io/ramac-project/} {project website}

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Biarchetype analysis for univariate functional data. An application to macroeconomic financial time series

arXiv:2606.15881v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce biarchetype analysis for the first time in the context of univariate functional data. This unsupervised methodology extends archetype analysis by simultaneously identifying archetypal structures across both the cases (countries, in our application) and the temporal argument. Both cases and time points are expressed as mixtures of biarchetypes, yielding a concise and highly interpretable representation of complex functional observations. Although biarchetype analysis is not intended as a clustering technique, it offers superior interpretability compared with biclustering approaches, as it is based on extreme, representative patterns rather than average centroids, thereby enhancing human comprehension. We apply the proposed method to 10-year government bond yields of European countries over the period 2001-2025. The results identify three distinct time regimes (the pre-crisis period, the euro-area sovereign debt crisis, and the post-crisis period), and reveal Germany, Greece, and Hungary as country archetypes.

05.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

Laws of Large Numbers for Non-Independent Random Variables on Hyperspaces with respect to the Hausdorff Metric

arXiv:2011.07199v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper investigates the limit behavior of the Minkowski sums for sequences of set-valued random variables. When the underlying space is finite dimensional, by using the support function, we establish the weak and strong laws of large numbers for non-independent random variables in the hyperspace with respect to the Hausdorff metric $d_H$.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Denoising Implicit Feedback for Cold-start Recommendation

arXiv:2606.19658v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Implicit feedback is widely used in recommender systems due to its accessibility and generality, yet it usually presents noisy samples (e.g., clickbait, position bias). Meanwhile, recommenders inevitably face the item cold-start problem due to the continuous influx of new items. We identify that cold items are more prone to noisy samples due to the aforementioned factors, and researchers often overlook the significance of denoising implicit feedback for cold items. Previous denoising studies usually identify noisy samples based on heuristic patterns, such as higher loss values, and mitigate noise through sample selection or re-weighting. However, these methods have limited adaptability and are ineffective in cold-start scenarios. To achieve denoising implicit feedback for cold-start recommendation, we propose a model-agnostic denoising method called DIF. First, user preferences for content remain stable, which allows us to infer pseudo-labels indicating whether a user is interested in a cold item through content-similar warm items. Furthermore, to improve pseudo-label accuracy, we model the confidence of pseudo-labels based on the content similarity between the cold item and warm items, and then aggregate multiple pseudo-labels for each sample. Finally, we explicitly estimate the uncertainty of the noisy sample label by considering its relative entropy and the cold-start status of the item, which adaptively guides the role of pseudo-labels to correct the noisy labels at the sample level. DIF's superiority is supported by both theoretical justification and extensive experiments on real-world datasets. The method has been deployed on a billion-user scale short video application Kuaishou and has significantly improved various commercial metrics within cold-start scenarios.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

The Illusion of Improvement: Reject Inference Strategies in Credit Scoring

arXiv:2606.18479v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reject inference methods are widely used to mitigate survival bias in credit scoring, yet their effectiveness remains poorly understood. We systematically evaluate several such methods and uncover a structural failure mode: in a natural retraining cycle, models whose accuracy improves while recall collapses create an illusion of improvement that leads practitioners to believe the system is getting better when, in fact, its rejection quality – the ability to correctly screen out defaulters – is deteriorating. We then propose a controlled exploration strategy that breaks the feedback loop without statistical assumptions: the lender deliberately approves a fraction of rejected applicants and observes their true outcomes. We show that accuracy and rejection quality give opposite recommendations on whether to explore: accuracy favors no exploration, while rejection quality improves with it, confirming that standard evaluation metrics are misleading under selection bias. Even minimal exploration rates (2–5\%) prove sufficient in our experiments to diagnose the severity of the feedback loop at near-zero cost. Our findings are consistent across two machine learning methods and three real-world datasets, and suggest that standard evaluation protocols are inadequate for assessing models trained under survival bias.

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

LooseControlVideo: Directorial Video Control using Spatial Blocking

Precise 3D spatial orchestration in text-to-video generation remains a significant challenge, particularly for multi-object scenes where semantic layout and temporal dynamics are often entangled. While existing depth-conditioned models achieve good structural fidelity, they necessitate dense, frame-accurate guidance that is labor-intensive to author for dynamic events involving deformable objects. We present LooseControlVideo, a framework that enables intuitive and expressive control by using sparse, oriented 3D boxes as a "blocking" proxy. This allows users to author high-level layout and trajectory while leveraging a video generative model to generate realistic occlusions, dynamics and interactions. We achieve this by fine-tuning a Wan 2.2 backbone on a video dataset annotated with DNOCS, a novel encoding for 3D size, orientation and depth-ordered occlusions. Furthermore, our method allows for localized refinement, such as adjusting a jump trajectory or adding an interaction, with minimal disruption to the global scene context. Extensive evaluations on the nuScenes, HO-3D, and BEHAVE benchmarks demonstrate that LooseControlVideo significantly outperforms existing 2D-box and flow-based baselines. Our findings indicate a 1.2x to 3x improvement in Trajectory Error; 2x improvement in Rigid Motion Consistency; and a 1.5x to 2x increase in Occlusion Accuracy over current state-of-the-art layout-conditioned models, demonstrating that oriented 3D primitives provide good geometric prior for complex, multi-agent video authoring.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Diffusion Flow Matching: Dimension-Improved KL Bounds and Wasserstein Guarantees

arXiv:2606.16610v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Diffusion Flow Matching (DFM) has recently emerged as a versatile framework for generative modeling, yet its theoretical convergence properties remain only partially understood. In this work, we provide refined and novel convergence guarantees for Brownian motion based DFMs, focusing on the discretization error. Our analysis is conducted under the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and the 2-Wasserstein distance. Under finite-moment conditions and a mild score integrability assumption, we derive KL convergence bounds with improved dimensional dependence compared to prior work, achieving, up to our knowledge, state-of-the-art scaling under minimal conditions. We further extend the analysis to the 2-Wasserstein distance: under an additional first-order score integrability assumption and a weak log-concavity condition, we obtain convergence guarantees with dimensional dependence consistent with the KL case.

10.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-05-29

Structural and dynamic basis of NOD2 tandem CARD association and NOD1/2–RIP2 signaling complexes

by Jitendra Maharana, Aritra Bej, Debasish Biswal, Debashis Panda, Arjun Sharma NOD1 and NOD2, founding members of the NOD-like receptor (NLR) family, play a crucial role in host defense against bacterial infections. Recognition of peptidoglycan-derived ligands triggers ATP-dependent oligomerization of the NACHT domain, exposing the CARD domains that recruit the adaptor protein RIP2 via CARD–CARD interactions to activate the NF-κB signaling cascade. Although NOD1/2-RIP2 interactions and RIP2CARD filament assembly are established, the precise interfaces that stabilize hetero–CARD filaments remain poorly defined. Here, we integrate in silico structural modeling with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to elucidate structurally compatible arrangements of NOD1–RIP2 and NOD2–RIP2 hetero–CARD filaments. Our results reveal that NOD1CARD subunits form a structurally compatible homomeric scaffold via canonical (type-I–III) interfaces, accommodating multiple tiers of RIP2CARD rings at both filament termini. Meanwhile, the NOD2 tandem CARDs adopt multiple discrete conformations, reflecting a more intricate structural mechanism. In stable filament conformations, tandem CARDs converge at the type-II interface, with RIP2CARD rings stacking onto CARDa (top-down) and CARDb (bottom-up) interfaces, highlighting the structural role of NOD2CARDb in RIP2-mediated CARD–CARD interaction. In silico mutagenesis, involving charge-reversal and alanine scanning of key interfacial residues, disrupts NOD1–RIP2 and NOD2–RIP2 interactions at both top-down and bottom-up interfaces, leading to rapid interface destabilization within 0.1–0.4 μs of simulation. Together, these results reveal conserved and receptor-specific mechanisms governing NOD1/2–RIP2 CARD–CARD interactions and provide deeper structural and dynamic insights into the complex structural mechanisms for NLR-mediated inflammatory signaling.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

A Deep Generative Model for Resting-State EEG Synthesis and Transferable Representation Learning

arXiv:2503.02636v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Resting-state EEG provides a non-invasive view of spontaneous brain activity, but extracting meaningful patterns is often limited by scarce high-quality data and reliance on manually engineered features. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) can synthesize neural signals and learn transferable representations directly from raw data, a dual capability that remains underexplored in EEG research. Here, we introduce REST-GAN, a GAN-based framework for resting-state EEG that combines adversarial training with an auxiliary self-supervised reconstruction objective to support signal synthesis and unsupervised feature extraction. Although trained only on raw time-domain signals, without explicit frequency-domain or sensor-topographic supervision, the generated time series reproduced key temporal, spectral, and connectivity properties of real EEG. In band-power feature space, generated samples showed high precision and recall across eyes-open and eyes-closed conditions (EO: 0.91/0.67; EC: 0.87/0.65), while group-average spectral coherence matrices showed low mean absolute differences from real data across frequency bands (~0.01-0.03). The representations learned by the model's critic transferred to independent resting-state demographic classification tasks, outperforming models trained directly on raw EEG and showing competitive performance relative to a recent EEG foundation model, while requiring substantially less training data and computational resources. These findings highlight a computationally efficient, architecture-driven strategy in which generative models serve not only as EEG signal generators, but also as unsupervised feature extractors. This approach may support more data-efficient EEG analysis while reducing reliance on manual feature engineering. The implementation code for REST-GAN is available at: https://github.com/Yeganehfrh/REST-GAN.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Regular Fourier Features for Nonstationary Gaussian Processes

arXiv:2602.23006v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Simulating a Gaussian process requires sampling from a high-dimensional Gaussian distribution, which scales cubically with the number of sample locations. Spectral methods address this challenge by exploiting the Fourier representation and treating the spectral density as a probability distribution suitable for Monte Carlo approximation. Although this probabilistic interpretation is valid for stationary processes, it is overly restrictive for the nonstationary case, where spectral densities are generally not probability measures. We propose regular Fourier features for harmonizable processes to avoid this limitation. Our method discretizes the spectral representation directly, preserving the correlation structure among spectral weights without requiring probability assumptions. Under a finite-spectral-support assumption, this yields an efficient low-rank approximation that is consistent and positive semi-definite by construction. When the spectral density is unknown, the framework extends naturally to kernel learning from data. We demonstrate the method on locally stationary and harmonizable mixture kernels, the latter with a complex-valued spectral density, and apply the kernel-learning extension to real and synthetic data.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

Pulling The REINS: Training-Free Safety Alignment of Video Diffusion Models via Representation Steering

Open-weight video diffusion models can generate photorealistic unsafe content, from violence to misinformation, yet existing defenses either require expensive safety fine-tuning that degrades general capability, or apply external filters that are trivially bypassed by adversarial prompts. We present REINS (REpresentation-space INference-time Safety steering), a training-free method that aligns video diffusion models at inference time by steering their internal representations toward safe generation. Our key finding is that safety-relevant structure is linearly encoded in the hidden-state activations of video diffusion transformers, and a single direction, discovered via Supervised PCA on binary safety labels, suffices to separate safe from unsafe generation trajectories. At inference, adding this direction to hidden states at an intermediate transformer layer redirects generation from harmful content to semantically related safe alternatives, with no weight updates, no concept enumeration, and negligible computational overhead. Through mechanistic analysis, we reveal that while safety information accumulates monotonically with transformer depth, steering effectiveness peaks at intermediate layers (~50% depth), exposing a fundamental tradeoff between information availability and downstream propagation capacity. We evaluate REINS across 9 video diffusion models, multiple parameter scales (1.3B-5B), and both text-to-video and image-to-video generation, to our knowledge, the broadest safety evaluation suite in the video generation literature.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

ATV-Net: Adaptive Triple-View Network with Dynamic Feature Fusion

Recent advances in semantic segmentation rely heavily on attention-based and transformer-style architectures that, while accurate, introduce considerable architectural complexity and computational cost. This paper asks whether a compact CNN-based segmentation head can remain competitive by adaptively selecting useful receptive-field evidence. We propose ATV-Net, an Adaptive Triple-View Network that attaches a lightweight head to a conventional backbone. The head organizes three complementary views – point-wise, neighborhood-level, and enlarged context – and fuses them through an Adaptive Decision Gate that generates image-dependent weights from global feature statistics. This allows the model to emphasize different receptive-field responses according to scene content, without dense attention or multi-scale aggregation. Experiments on Cityscapes and Pascal VOC 2012 show that ATV-Net achieves 80.31% mIoU on Cityscapes with ResNet-101 and 80.90% with ConvNeXt-Tiny, and 86.7% and 88.5% mIoU on Pascal VOC 2012, respectively, while requiring fewer GFLOPs than representative context-aggregation and attention-based heads. The results indicate that adaptive receptive-field selection remains a practical and effective design choice for CNN-based semantic segmentation.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

LEPO: Latent Reasoning Policy Optimization for Large Language Models

arXiv:2604.17892v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recently, latent reasoning has been introduced into large language models (LLMs) to leverage rich information within a continuous space. However, without stochastic sampling, these methods inevitably collapse to deterministic inference, failing to discover diverse reasoning paths. To bridge the gap, we inject controllable stochasticity into latent reasoning via Gumbel-Softmax, restoring LLMs' exploratory capacity and enhancing their compatibility with Reinforcement Learning (RL). Building on this, we propose \underline{L}atent R\underline{e}asoning \underline{P}olicy \underline{O}ptimization~(LEPO), a novel framework that applies RL directly to continuous latent representations. Specifically, in rollout stage, LEPO maintains stochasticity to enable diverse trajectory sampling, while in optimization stage, LEPO constructs a unified gradient estimation for both latent representations and discrete tokens. Extensive experiments show that LEPO significantly outperforms existing RL methods for discrete and latent reasoning.

16.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Sociodemographic and health correlates of reimbursement authorizations for cannabis for medical purposes in Canadian veterans: A cross-sectional study linking the Life After Services Studies 2019 and Health Administrative Databases

Background Evidence on factors associated with cannabis for medical purposes (CMP) authorizations among Veterans Affairs Canada (VAC) clients remains limited and inconsistent, particularly concerning mental health and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a leading indication for use. We investigated demographic, clinical and service characteristics associated with VAC authorizations for CMP reimbursement. Method We linked VAC administrative CMP program data with responses from the 2019 Life After Services Studies cross-sectional survey of Regular Force veterans released between 1998 and 2018. Multivariable logistic regressions examined associations between CMP reimbursement (yes/no) and demographic, clinical and well-being factors, with analyses stratified by PTSD status. Results Among 1,289 respondents (weighted n=33,131), 18.4% were authorized for CMP reimbursement. Younger age (

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Dual-Stance Evaluation of Sycophancy: The Structure of Agreement and the Limits of Intervention

Activation steering can shift LLM behaviour, but standard evaluations do not typically test whether a sycophancy-reduction direction also suppresses agreement with factually correct statements. We introduce dual-stance evaluation, which tests both stances of each topic, and apply it to centroid-difference steering on Llama-3-8B-Instruct. We find a dissociation: the model represents sycophantic and factual agreement in geometrically distinct subspaces, yet the steering direction projects equally onto both and cannot differentially target either. The direction accordingly reduces agreement with factually correct statements (e.g. that the Earth is round) as well as sycophantic ones. All other static properties of the two activation groups are matched, suggesting the behavioural dissociation arises from generation dynamics or from finer-grained structure that residual-stream analysis cannot resolve. The pattern illustrates a general gap: representations that are readable from activations may not be writable through them.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Local-GS: Accelerating 3D Gaussian Splatting via Tile-Local Warp Coherence

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has significantly advanced real-time novel view synthesis by representing scenes as dense collections of anisotropic 3D Gaussian primitives. However, the irregular spatial distribution of Gaussians often leads to poor GPU utilization, as warp divergence and redundant computation degrade rendering performance. To address this, we present Local-GS, a warp-coherent rendering paradigm that, organizes Gaussian primitives with respect to SIMT (Single Instruction, Multiple Threads) execution boundaries rather than scene geometry. Specifically, we propose three warp-coherent stages: a hoisting stage that precomputes shared parameters at tile level, a culling stage that discards warps with no contribution, and a blending stage that replaces per-pixel branching with a uniform instruction stream. Across extensive benchmarks on multiple datasets, Local-GS improves efficiency without compromising quality. As a plug-and-play optimization, it provides additional performance gains to all tested baselines, culminating in a $7.76\times$ speedup on Deep Blending scenes.

19.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-23

Measuring peptide-MHC generalization to unseen alleles across both HLA classes

Authors:

Reported peptide-MHC (pMHC) AUROCs of 0.85-0.95 overstate generalization to unseen alleles: because immunopeptidome data are dense on a few well-studied alleles and sparse on the rest, training and test sets come to share near-identical alleles, so the numbers partly reflect interpolation rather than extrapolation to new MHC grooves. This is a property of the data, not of any one method. We assembled an open, harmonized corpus of 5.8 million experimental measurements across both HLA classes and use it to control the leakage explicitly: alleles held out at the sequence and cluster level, peptide-disjoint splits, and provenance-matched negatives. On strictly novel alleles, generalization is in the high 0.7s rather than the 0.9s a conventional split returns. Against this benchmark we trained a predictor that spans both classes in one model and factors presentation into a peptide-only ligand-likeness term and an allele-specific term; it exceeds eight published predictors by per-allele {Delta}AUROC = +0.22 to +0.37 (p < 10-9), most on the least-studied genes. Corpus, benchmark, and model are released.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Metacognitive Myopia in Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit potentially harmful biases that reinforce culturally embedded stereotypes, influence moral judgments, or amplify positive evaluations of majority groups. We propose metacognitive myopia as a cognitive-ecological framework accounting for a conglomerate of established and emerging LLM biases. Our theoretical framework posits that biased samples in the information environment cause five symptoms of metacognitive myopia in LLMs: integration of invalid embeddings, susceptibility to redundant information, neglect of base rates in conditional computation, decision rules based on frequency, and inappropriate higher-order statistical inference for nested data structures. Moreover, it posits that the two main components of metacognition, monitoring and control, could account for these five symptoms. Accordingly, we further outline how monitoring and control could be approximated technically, for instance, through hidden parallel reasoning histories that allow interactive LLMs to evaluate risks of myopic inference before generating overt responses. Our theoretical framework provides a novel perspective on flawed human-machine interactions and agentic AI and raises significant ethical concerns regarding the implementation of LLMs in organizational structures and high-stakes decisions.

21.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Optimal Calibration of Quantum Network Links

arXiv:2606.18167v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The reliable distribution of entanglement is essential for the effective operation of quantum networks. Due to fundamental differences between quantum and classical communication systems, it is necessary to develop specialised algorithms and protocols that also account for quantum-specific constraints. In this work, we focus on the issue of recalibration. As suggested by recent experimental studies, the process of local entanglement generation in a quantum link degrades over time due to environmental changes that have to be estimated and compensated via a calibration operation, during which the link is not available. Therefore, in such a quantum network, every link alternates between an activation period, during which it operates normally, and a calibration period, during which it cannot participate in the end-to-end entanglement distribution, thereby creating a trade-off between link quality (the fidelity of generated pairs, which decays during activation) and availability (the fraction of time the link is usable, which calibration reduces). We develop analytically a protocol for optimally assigning activation periods to each link in linear quantum repeater chains, subject to any general end-to-end fidelity requirements and local initial fidelity thresholds. Building on this foundation, we extend to general quantum networks, where multiple paths may cross at common links, proposing a heuristic approach evaluated in simulations and compared with a benchmark, numerical approach, and theoretical bounds.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

IPO Finance Agent: Evaluation of LLM Financial Analysts beyond Finance Agent v2, with Automated Rubric Generation – the Case of the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO

arXiv:2606.23032v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Finance Agent v2 (by Vals AI) has emerged as the reference benchmark for evaluating both Anthropic Claude and OpenAI ChatGPT frontier language models on financial tasks. However, it narrowly deals with periodic reporting from publicly traded companies (SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings), and its agentic harness relies on naive, unenriched chunk retrieval. Neither the task design nor the retrieval approach addresses the distinct challenges of IPO due diligence. SEC S-1 filings combine historical financial statements, governance structures, pro forma and common-control accounting treatments, capital-formation narratives, and underwriting-sensitive risk disclosures within substantially longer documents than typical periodic filings. That is why we introduce IPO Finance Agent, which extends the Finance Agent v2 framework along two directions: task domain and retrieval architecture. During our experiments, the original Finance Agent v2 harness basically failed to deliver any output related to the SpaceX S-1 filing, due to document length. We therefore had to improve the agentic harness with contextual retrieval, a more realistic and industry-standard approach for long documents. We also built a dataset of 1,000 IPO-diligence questions, and publicly release 70 questions on the SpaceX (SPCX) S-1 filing to support reproducibility, while the remainder are held private to guard against benchmark contamination. In addition, we introduce an evaluator-optimizer pipeline to automatically generate evaluation rubrics for the benchmark: candidate facts are extracted from model answers, consolidated into draft criteria, then automatically audited for omissions, hallucinations, mistiered items, and redundancy, with LLM feedback driving iterative repair, targeted enrichment, and deduplication. Human experts only review final rubrics before deployment. Results show that the best-performing evaluated model, Alibaba Qwen 3.7 Max, reaches 79.4% accuracy at 0.30 USD per query, and the most cost-efficient model on the resulting Pareto frontier, Xiaomi MiMo-2.5 Pro, reaches slightly lower accuracy (76.8%) at 0.05 USD per query. Both exceed the current Finance Agent v2 leaderboard ceiling-Google Gemini 3.5 Flash at 57.9% for 2.51 USD per querywhile undercutting even FABv2's cheapest entry (MiniMax M3: 48.3% at 0.32 USD) on cost-efficiency. Code and data are released on GitHub: https://github.com/benstaf/ipoagent

23.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Quantum statistical enhancement of collective behaviour in a bosonic active Ising model

arXiv:2606.18091v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Collective behaviour such as flocking (the collective motion of a spontaneously formed group along a common direction) or aster formation (the binding of opposing flocks, inhibiting each others motion) are intriguing emergent phenomena in active systems with local alignment rules. Until recently, their occurrence was mainly studied for classical systems, a prime example being the active Ising model (AIM), which translates the main ingredients of flocking and aster formation (i.e., alignment and self-propulsion) to a lattice framework. Here we introduce and study a one-dimensional (1D) quantum lattice variant of the AIM, based on ideal bosons with a spin degree of freedom. We find that both the collective behaviours of the 1D classical model, flocking and aster formation, are markedly enhanced by the bosonic quantum statistics. This contrasts with a recent quantum generalization of the AIM based onto hard-core bosons [Khasseh et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 135, 248302 (2025)], where flocking, but neither its quantum-statistical stabilization nor aster states were observed as a consequence of interactions. Moreover, we investigate the competition of this quantum statistical stabilization of collective phases with their suppression by the quantum fluctuations induced by a transverse external magnetic field.

24.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Free Energy Heuristics: Fast-And-Frugal Cognition as Active Inference Under Uncertain Precision

Authors:

Chain-of-thought (CoT) improves large language models' performance in math and symbolic reasoning. But on planning, contested ethics, and tasks where the model cannot check itself, more reasoning makes things worse. Both effects are documented; what has been missing is a principled account of which property decides the outcome. We argue it is meta-uncertainty: how unsure the model is about the reliability of its own evidence. When that uncertainty is high, extra reasoning stops adding signal and starts manufacturing false confidence. We prove that the policy minimizing expected free energy under uncertain precision stops integrating cues after a finite number of high-validity ones when the precision prior is heavy-tailed (Theorem 2.6.1), and under a Descending Dominance condition, is sample-wise identical to take-the-best (Theorem 2.7.4). Fast-and-frugal heuristics and active inference are, then, two descriptions of the same computation. The prediction is that on high-meta-uncertainty items, longer CoT should degrade accuracy. We score the regime per item (simulate-and-recover rho > 0.96), build FEH-79, a benchmark of Knightian frames with matched controls, and run a pre-registered study across seven models (five open-weight 3B-32B, two frontier), five CoT lengths, and 7,875 responses. The gate, fixed before any data, required a negative interaction with posterior probability above 0.95 and an accuracy drop of more than 6 points. It held. The high-regime drop is 17.3 points (95% CI [7.7, 25.5]); matched items with definite answers show no cost. The effect is regime-dependent: decisive in capable mid-to-large models, directional in the two frontier systems, absent-to-reversed in the weakest. The framework answers when CoT helps and unifies the Bayesian and fast-and-frugal traditions: less-is-more effects are evidence about the meta-uncertainty regime, not against Bayesian cognition.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data

arXiv:2606.15950v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction gives prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage when the data are exchangeable. Many time-indexed datasets are not exchangeable. They have seasons, recurring regimes, changing frequencies, or other forms of structured dependence. This paper studies a simple way to use that structure. We propose spectral adaptive conformal prediction, a method that forms weighted conformal quantiles using local spectral similarity and then updates the target miscoverage level online. The spectral weights choose calibration residuals that look relevant to the current test point. The adaptive update corrects the long-run miss rate when uncertainty changes over time. We give an approximate coverage result for the fixed spectral weighted quantile and a deterministic long-run calibration result for the adaptive update. Simulations with recurring regimes and slowly changing frequencies, together with three U.S. real-data examples, show that the hybrid method can improve on fixed spectral weighting, while also showing that spectral weighting must be monitored through effective sample size diagnostics.