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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

PO-PDDL: Learning Symbolic POMDPs from Visual Demonstrations for Robot Planning Under Uncertainty

Authors:
Wenjing Tang↗Xuanjin Jin↗Yuan Liu↗Renming Huang↗Cewu Lu↗Panpan Cai↗

arXiv:2606.15654v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Real-world robot task planning must operate under both stochastic action execution and partial observability, yet constructing Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) models for real robotics domains remains difficult and labor-intensive. We introduce PO-PDDL, a symbolic formulation of POMDPs that preserves the relational structure and LLM-friendly syntax of the Planning Domain Definition Language (PDDL), while explicitly modeling partial observability, stochasticity, and beliefs. Building on this formulation, we propose a demonstration-driven pipeline for learning PO-PDDL models. The proposed method reconstructs latent symbolic state trajectories from real-robot execution videos, identifies partial observability via inconsistencies between inferred states and visual observations, and learns stochastic transition and observation models accordingly. The resulting PO-PDDL domains are reusable across tasks and enable online belief-space planning under both perception and execution uncertainty. Experiments on real-world long-horizon manipulation tasks show that our method consistently outperforms existing PDDL and POMDP model-learning approaches, achieving robust task planning under uncertainty with significantly lower planning cost.

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02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Filtered Conformal Ellipsoids for Graph-Native Time Series

Authors:
Yannick Limmer↗

arXiv:2606.17014v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Joint prediction sets for multivariate time series should control a single event while adapting to cross-coordinate dependence. We study filtered conformal ellipsoids: a frozen state-space filter emits a one-step predictive mean and covariance, and split-conformal calibration is applied to the resulting Mahalanobis scores. The filter is used to choose the ellipsoid shape; conformal calibration chooses the scalar radius, so the construction benefits from a learned predictive covariance without relying on Gaussian tail probabilities for coverage. The main difficulty is that filtered scores are dependent and learned recurrent filters need not contract in their raw hidden state; we therefore analyse contraction in an observable predictive-law quotient that identifies hidden states producing the same future sequence of emitted Gaussian laws. Under a stable Bayes Gaussian-projection filter, covariance bounds, and a finite-horizon observability Fisher condition, small excess Gaussian negative log-likelihood implies contraction of the learned emitted laws. Combined with a threshold-autocovariance envelope this yields a Chebyshev-type approximate coverage bound for filtered split-conformal prediction under dependence; a sharper Bernstein-type bound requires an additional geometric-mixing concentration assumption. Under Gaussian oracle realisability we also obtain a near-oracle log-volume comparison within the class of conditionally valid Gaussian ellipsoid rules. We instantiate the framework with a GCN-GRU filter with diagonal-plus-low-rank covariance. On moderate-size graph-native traffic benchmarks (METRLA-$20$ and PEMSBAY-$50$), the learned filter gives sharper at-target ellipsoids than static-covariance and non-filter baselines; at full-graph scale and on non-graph-native datasets, factor and copula baselines can be stronger.

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03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

Flux-Guard: Facial Identity Protection using diffusion models

Authors:
Jie Wang↗Tao Wang↗Ru Zhang↗Jianyi Liu↗

The widespread deployment of face recognition (FR) systems exposes personal images shared on social media and public platforms to identity linkage and privacy risks. Existing adversarial privacy protection methods can degrade unauthorized FR performance but are not compatible with generative face editing. Artificial intelligence-driven face editing tools are gaining popularity, which has significantly increased user demand for personalized portrait generation and social sharing. However, current editing methods often preserve identity features, making the edited images still susceptible to tracking by malicious FR systems. Thus, this paper proposes Flux-Guard, a privacy-preserving face editing framework based on adversarial attacks, which integrates face editing and privacy protection within a unified generative process. Specifically, we design a flow trajectory control method to align semantic manipulations with the generative process and introduce latent-space adversarial optimization with an adaptive perceptual-loss-driven weighting strategy, dynamically adjusting adversarial strength to maximize attack effectiveness while preserving visual quality. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Flux-Guard supports face editing while significantly improving attack success rates against cross-domain face recognition models on the CelebA-HQ and LADN datasets. Furthermore, evaluation results for commercial APIs have confirmed its effectiveness in real-world applications. The code is released at https://github.com/JLMWang/Flux-Guard.

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04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

On Sequence-to-Sequence Models for Automated Log Parsing

Authors:
Adam Sorrenti↗Andriy Miranskyy↗

Context: Log parsing is a critical standard operating procedure in software systems, enabling monitoring, anomaly detection, and failure diagnosis. However, automated log parsing remains challenging due to heterogeneous log formats, distribution shifts between training and deployment data, and the brittleness of rule-based approaches. Objectives: This study aims to systematically evaluate how sequence modelling architecture, representation choice, sequence length, and training data availability influence automated log parsing performance and computational cost. Methods: We conduct a controlled empirical study comparing four sequence modelling architectures: Transformer, Mamba state-space, monodirectional LSTM, and bidirectional LSTM models. In total, 396 models are trained across multiple dataset configurations and evaluated using relative Levenshtein edit distance with statistical significance testing. Results: Transformer achieves the lowest mean relative edit distance (0.111), followed by Mamba (0.145), mono-LSTM (0.186), and bi-LSTM (0.265), where lower values are better. Mamba provides competitive accuracy with substantially lower computational cost. Character-level tokenization generally improves performance, sequence length has negligible practical impact on Transformer accuracy, and both Mamba and Transformer demonstrate stronger sample efficiency than recurrent models. Conclusion: Overall, Transformers reduce parsing error by 23.4%, while Mamba is a strong alternative under data or compute constraints. These results also clarify the roles of representation choice, sequence length, and sample efficiency, providing practical guidance for researchers and practitioners.

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06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Ensuring Trustworthy Online A/B Testing: Addressing Five Key Questions on CUPED

Authors:
Yu Zhang↗Bokui Wan↗Yongli Qin↗Jinyong Ma↗Yifan Guo↗

arXiv:2606.18750v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A/B testing has become the gold standard for data-driven decision-making in large-scale online experimentation, providing critical guidance for feature launch, pricing optimization, and user experience enhancement. To maximize statistical sensitivity, many technology companies routinely employ Controlled-experiment Using Pre-Experiment Data (CUPED), a technique that achieves substantial variance reduction while preserving the unbiasedness of estimating the average treatment effect. Despite its widespread adoption, several critical methodological and practical nuances of CUPED remain underexplored. This paper systematically addresses five frequently encountered yet overlooked questions regarding the application of CUPED. First, we provide a comparative analysis of various post-CUPED estimators to identify the optimal adjustment specification. Second, we evaluate the validity of regression-based adjustments and delineate robust variance estimation methods tailored for such frameworks. Finally, we extend our investigation to complex but common scenarios, including multi-arm experiments and two-stage sampling designs. Our findings reveal that in these settings, naive reliance on standard variance estimators can lead to severely misleading inferences. By offering rigorous theoretical insights and extensive experimental validation, this work deepens the conceptual understanding of CUPED. Notably, the recommended methodologies have been successfully deployed and integrated into ByteDance's experimentation platform.

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07.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Non-commutative Law of iterated logarithm

Authors:
Sourav Panja↗\'Eric Ricard↗Diptesh Saha↗

arXiv:2509.22037v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We prove optimal non-commutative analogues of the classical Law of Iterated Logarithm (LIL) for both martingales and sequences of independent (non-commutative) random variables. The classical martingale version was established by Stout [Sto70b] and the independent case by Hartman-Wintner [HW41]. Our approach relies on a key exponential inequality essentially due to Randrianantoanina [Ran24] that improves that from Junge and Zeng [JZ15]. It allows to derive an optimal non-commutative Stout-type LIL just as in [Zen15], from that martingale result we then deduce a non-commutative Hartman-Wintner type LIL for independent sequences of random variables.

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08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

Occ-VLM: Occupancy Grounded Vision Language Model for Indoor Scene Understanding

Authors:
Jianing Li↗Zhou Fang↗Yijiang Liu↗Li Du↗

Recently, vision-language models (VLMs) have made significant progress in 3D scene understanding, driving advances in applications such as embodied intelligence and robotic vision. However, existing approaches typically either rely directly on explicit 3D inputs (e.g., point clouds or RGB-D sequences), or introduce an additional 3D geometry encoder to derive 3D-aware visual tokens from 2D images. Such designs structurally decouple 3D geometric perception from the rich 2D semantics learned via vision-language pre-training, hindering the development of a unified 3D vision-language representation. In this work, we propose Occ-VLM, a novel framework for 3D scene understanding that operates purely on posed RGB images and employs a single 2D vision encoder. Specifically, Occ-VLM reconstructs 3D scene occupancy as an auxiliary geometric prior, which is utilized to spatially associate foreground 2D tokens with 3D space. These tokens are then decoded by a Large Language Model (LLM) for unified scene understanding. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Occ-VLM achieves both accurate geometric perception and robust vision-language reasoning: it attains state-of-the-art performance on multi-view occupancy prediction, while performing on par with 3D-input VLMs on 3D Visual Question Answering (VQA) and 3D dense captioning benchmarks.

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09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Binary Black Hole Parameter Estimation with Hybrid CNN-Transformer Neural Networks

Authors:
Panagiotis N. Sakellariou↗Spiros V. Georgakopoulos↗Sotiris Tasoulis↗Vassilis P. Plagianakos↗

arXiv:2606.13941v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The detection of gravitational waves has revolutionized our ability to explore fundamental aspects of the Universe. Traditionally, modeled gravitational-wave signals have been identified using template-based matched filtering, followed by coincidence analysis across multiple detectors in the signal-to-noise ratio time series. Recent advances in Machine Learning and Deep Learning have sparked growing interest in their application to both signal detection and parameter estimation. In this study, a hybrid Deep Learning strategy is proposed that leverages the effectiveness of Transformer encoders alongside well-established Convolutional Neural Network architectures in an attempt to estimate the intrinsic and extrinsic parameters of non-precessing binary black hole systems. The primary focus of this work is point estimation, producing single best-fit values for each parameter rather than full posterior distributions. This method is evaluated on both simulated signals embedded in Gaussian noise and real gravitational-wave events, and it demonstrates strong predictive performance and robustness across key astrophysical parameters.

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10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Lightweight Transformer Models for On-Device Fault Detection: A Benchmark Study on Resource-Constrained Deployment

Authors:
Disha Patel↗

arXiv:2606.24173v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: On-device fault detection enables real-time diagnostics without cloud dependency, but deploying machine learning models on resource-constrained hardware demands careful tradeoffs between accuracy, latency, and model size. We present a benchmark comparing traditional ML methods (Random Forest, XGBoost, SVM, Logistic Regression) against lightweight transformer architectures (DistilBERT, TinyBERT-6L, TinyBERT-4L, MobileBERT) for binary fault detection across three public datasets: NASA C-MAPSS turbofan degradation, SECOM semiconductor manufacturing, and UCI AI4I 2020 predictive maintenance. We evaluate classification performance (F1-score, AUC), model size, and CPU inference latency, and further assess INT8 dynamic quantization and a two-stage adaptive inference pipeline. Our results reveal that on well-separated sensor data (C-MAPSS), lightweight transformers match traditional ML at 87.8% F1 but at 100x the model size and 9000x the latency. TinyBERT-4L emerges as the most deployment-friendly transformer at 55 MB and 18 ms CPU latency. INT8 quantization reduces size by 25% while preserving 86.9% F1. Our adaptive pipeline, routing 97.9% of predictions through a quantized triage model and only 2.1% to a larger expert, achieves 87.6% F1 at 19.5 ms average latency. On severely imbalanced datasets (SECOM, UCI-PM), both traditional and transformer methods struggle significantly, highlighting fundamental limitations of current approaches for extreme class imbalance in fault detection. All code is publicly available.

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11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Variable Bound Tightening for Nash Equilibrium Computation in Multiplayer Imperfect-Information Games

Authors:
Sam Ganzfried↗

arXiv:2606.25997v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: There has been significant recent progress in algorithms for approximation of Nash equilibrium in large two-player zero-sum imperfect-information games and exact computation of Nash equilibrium in multiplayer strategic-form games. While counterfactual regret minimization and fictitious play are scalable to large games and have convergence guarantees in two-player zero-sum games, they do not guarantee convergence to Nash equilibrium in multiplayer games. Recently, an approach has been presented for exact computation of Nash equilibrium in multiplayer imperfect-information games that solves a quadratically constrained program based on a nonlinear complementarity problem formulation derived from the sequence-form game representation. This formulation was solved using Gurobi's nonconvex quadratic solver, which employs spatial branch-and-bound to iteratively refine variable bounds by solving convex relaxations of bilinear terms via McCormick envelopes. During presolve, Gurobi introduces auxiliary variables and, in some cases, binary variables, leading to an internal MIQCP reformulation. This approach was demonstrated to outperform prior algorithms from the Gambit software suite and quickly solve three-player Kuhn poker after removal of dominated actions; however, the algorithm was not able to solve the full version of the game within 24 hours. In this paper, we derive finite bounds on slack and multiplier variables in the nonlinear complementarity formulation. These bounds strengthen the convex relaxations used within spatial branch-and-bound and lead to substantial computational improvements. We demonstrate the impact of the proposed bounds on exact Nash equilibrium computation in three-player Kuhn poker.

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12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Code Correctness Signals in LLM Hidden States: Pre-Generation Probing and Repair Geometry

Authors:
Carlo Di Cicco↗

arXiv:2606.14530v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models encode rich information in their hidden states. This work asks whether code correctness is legible in the hidden states of Qwen3-4B-Instruct-2507, before it generates and as it repairs a failed attempt, studied on 444 LiveCodeBench tasks. It reports two findings connected by a single confound-control tool: residualization. First, the correctness of the model's first-attempt code is linearly decodable from the prompt-final hidden state, with a leakage-free held-out AUC of 0.931 +/- 0.008 across 50 outer splits. After the linear effect of prompt length is removed from each hidden state dimension, the probe still reaches 0.911 +/- 0.010, well above a prompt-length baseline of 0.754 +/- 0.014. Second, on 236 cleaned cases where the model attempts to repair a failed first attempt, the hidden state shift from the failing attempt to its repair carries a statistically detectable contrastive direction, significant on both a magnitude and a split-half test against label-shuffled nulls. This direction does not survive a conditional residualization against repair-context covariates that differ between successful and failed repairs, marking it as a correlate of repair success driven by the repair context rather than an isolated repair-comprehension feature. The probe layer is selected by nested cross-validation, and the same residualization approach that upholds the pre-generation correctness result overturns the repair-direction interpretation. The contribution is as much methodological as empirical: a diagnostic honest enough to report a negative result alongside a positive one.

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13.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

THE SILENT STRUGGLE: EXPLORING THE EFFECTS OF COMMUNICATION BREAKDOWNS IN HEALTHCARE DELIVERY IN THE NORTHERN REGION OF GHANA

Authors:
Salifu↗Abdulai↗Ibrahim↗

Abstract Effective health communication is central to patient-centred care and improved health outcomes, particularly in culturally diverse healthcare settings. In clinical and assistive practice, communication breakdowns may negatively affect diagnosis, treatment adherence, and preventive care. A qualitative phenomenological design was employed, utilizing Semi-Structured interviews with purposively sampled twenty patients and healthcare professionals from Tamale Teaching Hospital, Yendi Hospital, and Bimbilla Hospital. The researchers adopted Content Analysis as the tool of analysis for the data. The findings of this study revealed that language discrepancies Poor attitudes of healthcare providers hinderer patient openness and the quality treatment. Logistical issues, such as inadequate medicines and medical supplies, resulted in delayed treatment and additional financial burden on patients and their relatives. Cultural and social factors discourage patients from discussing certain health conditions with healthcare providers, leading to delayed treatment. These hurdles adversely impact on treatment and assistive practice, specifically in culturally diverse environment and preventive care. The study recommends training and capacity-building programs for healthcare providers in cultural competence, fostering effective and ethical health communication between patients and healthcare providers, and recruiting professional interpreters to bridge the linguistics gap between patients and providers. Abstract Effective health communication is central to patient-centered care and improved health outcomes, particularly in culturally diverse healthcare settings. In clinical and assistive practice, communication breakdowns may negatively affect diagnosis, treatment adherence, and preventive care. A qualitative phenomenological design was employed, utilizing semi-structured interviews with twenty purposively sampled patients and healthcare professionals from Tamale Teaching Hospital, Yendi Hospital, and Bimbilla Hospital. The researchers adopted content analysis as the tool of analysis for the data. The findings of this study revealed that language discrepancies Poor attitudes of healthcare providers hinder patient openness and quality treatment. Logistical issues, such as inadequate medicines and medical supplies, resulted in delayed treatment and additional financial burden on patients and their relatives. Cultural and social factors discourage patients from discussing certain health conditions with healthcare providers, leading to delayed treatment. These hurdles adversely impact treatment and assistive practice, specifically in culturally diverse environments and preventive care. The study recommends training and capacity-building programs for healthcare providers in cultural competence, fostering effective and ethical health communication between patients and healthcare providers, and recruiting professional interpreters to bridge the linguistics gap between patients and providers.

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14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Closing the Loop: PID Feedback Control for Interpretable Activation Steering in Symbolic Music Generation

Authors:
Ioannis Prokopiou↗Pantelis Vikatos↗Maximos Kaliakatsos-Papakostas↗Theodoros Giannakopoulos↗Themos Stafylakis↗

arXiv:2606.18790v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Transformer-based architectures have significantly advanced the generation of complex symbolic sequences, yet a significant gap remains in achieving fine-grained, interpretable control over discrete signal attributes. This paper investigates the mechanistic interpretability of the Multitrack Music Transformer (MMT) and proposes a framework for deterministic attribute modulation without retraining to bridge this gap via inference-time activation steering. Utilizing the Difference-in-Means (DiffMean) methodology, we isolate latent directions for signal attributes, specifically Pitch and Duration, within the residual stream. We validate the Linear Representation Hypothesis in this domain, achieving high correlation between steering magnitude and attribute shift. To address the inherent feature entanglement in multi-attribute steering, we introduce a Dual Steering framework utilizing Gram-Schmidt Orthogonalization. Experimental results demonstrate that this geometric decoupling reduces conceptual interference and signal degradation compared to naive vector addition, enabling independent deterministic control even against strong autoregressive conditioning.

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15.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Beyond the Unruh vacuum: multi-time correlations in black hole collapse and evaporation

Authors:
Konstantinos Xenos↗Charis Anastopoulos↗Andreas F. Terzis↗

arXiv:2606.13383v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The black hole information paradox originates from the thermal character of Hawking radiation, which appears to erase information about the collapsing matter. However, thermality constrains only observables defined at a single time and leaves the structure of temporal quantum correlations largely unexplored. Here we show that multi-time quantum-field correlations provide a concrete mechanism for the survival of pre-collapse information in black hole evaporation. Using a two-dimensional model of gravitational collapse and evaporation, we demonstrate that late-time multi-time correlations are not fully reproduced by the Unruh vacuum. In particular, they contain a contribution that depends explicitly on parameters characterizing the pre-collapse state, despite the thermal character of the asymptotic radiation. Our results identify measurable multi-time correlations as carriers of information in Hawking radiation and suggest that formulations of the black hole information paradox based solely on single-time observables are incomplete.

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16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Mirror Descent on Riemannian Manifolds

Authors:
Jiaxin Jiang↗Lei Shi↗Jiyuan Tan↗

arXiv:2603.17527v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Mirror Descent (MD) is a scalable first-order method widely used in large-scale optimization, with applications in image processing, policy optimization, and neural network training. This paper generalizes MD to optimization on Riemannian manifolds. In particular, we develop a Riemannian Mirror Descent (RMD) framework via reparameterization and further propose a stochastic variant of RMD. We also establish non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for both RMD and stochastic RMD. As an application to the Stiefel manifold, our RMD framework reduces to the Curvilinear Gradient Descent (CGD) method proposed in [26]. Moreover, when specializing the stochastic RMD framework to the Stiefel setting, we obtain a stochastic extension of CGD, which effectively addresses large-scale manifold optimization problems.

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17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Dense Supervision, Sparse Updates: On the Sparsity and Geometry of On-Policy Distillation

Authors:
Guo Yu↗Wenlin Liu↗Yulan Hu↗Hao-Xuan Ma↗Jun-Peng Jiang↗Han-Jia Ye↗

arXiv:2606.13657v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: On-policy distillation (\textsc{OPD}) has recently become a prominent post-training recipe as it combines two desirable ingredients: on-policy student trajectories and dense teacher supervision, yet how this hybrid changes a model's parameters remains unclear. Across several language and vision-language model pairs and use cases, our analysis yields two main findings. On sparsity, \textsc{OPD}-style updates are small and coordinate-sparse. They are distributed across layers and are usually FFN-heavy. This sparse structure is operationally useful: training only the discovered subnetwork recovers nearly the same performance as full \textsc{OPD}. However, the sparsity-inducing SGD optimizer underperforms AdamW in our optimizer ablation, likely because dense teacher supervision preserves heterogeneous coordinate-wise gradient scales where AdamW's adaptive scaling remains useful. On geometry, the updates are numerically full-rank but spectrally concentrated; they lie mostly away from the principal singular subspaces of the source weights and fall disproportionately on coordinates where the source weights are close to zero. These findings suggest that dense teacher supervision does not turn \textsc{OPD} into ordinary dense parameter rewriting; instead, \textsc{OPD} retains important geometric signatures of on-policy post-training.

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18.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Development and External Validation of a Machine Learning Model for 10-Year Ischemic Stroke Risk Prediction in Diverse Populations

Authors:
Khattab↗Wang↗Srinivasasainagendra↗Tiwari↗H. K↗Loos↗Limdi↗Irvin↗M. R↗

Importance: Machine-learning models for ischemic stroke risk prediction are rarely validated across ancestrally distinct cohorts, and the contributions of polygenic risk scores (PRS) and self-reported race in such models remain unclear. Objective: To develop and externally validate a 10-year ischemic stroke risk model and quantify the incremental contributions of laboratory trajectories, PRS, and self-reported race and ethnicity across populations. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study with model development in the All of Us (AoU) Research Program (n = 34,987; 1,920 incident strokes) and external validation in the BioMe Biobank at Mount Sinai (n = 10,693; 107 incident strokes). Adults aged 45 years or older with at least 1 year of pre-baseline electronic health record data were anchored to a January 2010 baseline with 10-year follow-up. Exposures: Three XGBoost model tiers added laboratory feature trajectories (M2) and 20 PRS (M3) to clinical baseline features (M1); evaluated under race-blind and race-aware specifications. Main Outcomes and Measures: First inpatient ischemic stroke within 10 years; discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]) and calibration (observed-to-expected [O/E] ratio). Results: In the AoU test partition (n = 6,998; 384 cases), M3 achieved an AUROC of 0.813 (95% CI, 0.788-0.837), outperforming the Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (AUROC difference, 0.164) and Pooled Cohort Equations (AUROC difference, 0.181; both P < 0.001). Discrimination transferred to BioMe (AUROC, 0.745), but predictions were systematically high (aggregate O/E ratio, 0.12 vs 1.00 in AoU), consistent with intercept-shift miscalibration; BioMe-fitted intercept recalibration restored calibration in African American and Hispanic participants but not European American participants. The PRS contribution was significant only among Hispanic participants in BioMe (AUROC difference, 0.042; P = 0.003), with no significant within-stratum gain in the other 5 cohort-by-race combinations. Adding self-reported race produced small gains when combined with PRS (BioMe AUROC difference, 0.022; P = 0.034; AoU AUROC difference, 0.006; P = 0.052) but not when added without PRS. Conclusions and Relevance: A machine-learning ensemble combining clinical, laboratory, and polygenic features outperformed traditional risk scores by 0.16 to 0.18 AUROC and retained discriminative validity in an ancestrally distinct external cohort but required site-specific recalibration of absolute risk. The marginal contribution of self-reported race overlapped with polygenic signal, supporting per-ancestry calibration over universal race-aware model deployment.

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19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

KFTD: Koopman-Fourier Time-Differentiable Network for Continuous Ocean Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Authors:
Qinghui Chen↗Zekai Zhang↗Hailong Liu↗Jinglin Zhang↗Cong Bai↗

arXiv:2606.17070v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate oceanic forecasting is critical for climate monitoring and disaster early warning. However, ocean spatiotemporal forecasting encounters the double challenges of modeling complex dynamical systems and ensuring computational efficiency. We present Koopman Fourier Time-Differentiable (KFTD) Network, a time continuous twostage paradigm that decouples interpolation from prediction to achieve efficient and scalable spatiotemporal modeling. We map complex nonlinear dynamics into the Koopman linear space and exploit Fourier analysis to enable continuous time interpolation at arbitrary sub-steps. A lightweight residual network consumes the high fidelity intermediate states to yield the final forecast. Unlike diffusion models, KFTD eliminates multi step noise sampling and directly evolves the system in continuous time, yielding a 4 computational speedup. We further introduce a DPP Loss that supports arbitrary PDE constraints in an endtoend manner, breaking the physical consistency bottleneck of pure data-driven approaches. Empirical results on four ocean datasets confirm that our continuous time framework reduces MSE by an average of 5.6% (up to 12.7% for SST) and improves efficiency over MCVD by 76.25%.

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20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

CrossPool: Efficient Multi-LLM Serving for Cold MoE Models through KV-Cache and Weight Disaggregation

Authors:
Zhuoren Ye↗Tianyu Wo↗Dinghao Xue↗Mingming Zhang↗Yuchen Teng↗Chunming Hu↗Renyu Yang↗

arXiv:2606.24506v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Emerging LLM services increasingly host many sparse MoE models, yet most models receive sparse requests and remain cold. This creates a GPU memory problem: model weights are stable and model-determined, while KV-cache is transient and demand-determined. Because cold models rarely reach peak KV-cache demand at the same time, reserving worst-case KV capacity per model wastes memory; a shared KV-cache pool can instead provision aggregate active demand. However, KV-cache sharing is not sufficient when weights and KV-cache remain in a monolithic GPU memory pool. Static weights compete with dynamic KV-cache, and KV-head-limited attention under cold, low-concurrency traffic exposes only a fraction of replicated KV capacity, leading to low GPU memory utilization and weak long-context support. We present CrossPool, a serving engine for cold MoE models that separates FFN weights and KV-cache into two GPU memory pools: a weights pool that consolidates FFN weights across cold models, and a KV-cache pool that dynamically serves active requests while keeping attention local to KV-cache. CrossPool combines a KV-cache planner and virtualizer, a layer-wise pipeline scheduler that hides hidden-state transfers, and persistent kernels with control lowering to reduce CPU-GPU control overhead. With efficient GPU memory pooling, CrossPool underpins bursty long-context requests and outperforms the state-of-the-art kvcached-based multi-LLM serving system, reducing P99 TBT by up to $10.4\times$.

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21.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Do Large Language Models Always Tell The Same Stories?

Authors:
Thennal DK↗Hans Ole Hatzel↗

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have enabled the generation of high-quality prose, yet the question of whether these models are capable of generating diverse outputs remains contested. In this work, we investigate the diversity of LLM-generated stories through the framework of narrative similarity. Using a contrastive framework and a dataset of human-written stories and prompts from r/WritingPrompts, we collect narrative similarity judgments across 10 representative LLMs, utilizing both human evaluations and three different automatic annotation methods. Our findings reveal a consistent trend: LLM-generated narratives are consistently more similar to each other than human-written stories are. We demonstrate that frontier models in particular converge on a ``mean'' generic narrative that approximates individual human stories but lacks the collective diversity of human authors. Finally, we show that common mitigation strategies, including negative prompting and temperature scaling, fail to meaningfully address this homogeneity.

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22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Elo-Disentangled Player-Style Embeddings for Human Chess via Rating-Conditioned Residual Move Model

Authors:
Jason Carlson↗

arXiv:2606.25176v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study representation learning for individual human chess style: a per-player embedding learned from a player's move history such that inner products measure stylistic similarity, while being approximately disentangled from playing strength (Elo). Our key design is a residual formulation: a rating-conditioned base move model (Maia-3 policy logits plus Stockfish-derived features, scored over Maia-2-proposed candidates) captures what a typical player of a given strength would play, and a frozen copy of it anchors a learned move encoder and a per-player vector z, so that z explains only deviations from rating-typical play. The base model improves move prediction over the strong Maia-3 policy by 27-37% relative NLL across the rating spectrum, with the largest gains at the top (2800+); Stockfish's marginal value grows monotonically with Elo (negligible at 900-1200, +0.085 nats at 2800+). On a shared Elo-stratified benchmark of 22,620 held-out decisions, top-1 move-matching rises monotonically from Maia-2 to Maia-3 to the Stockfish-augmented base (0.51 -> 0.57 -> 0.68): the base is +33% relative top-1 over Maia-2 and +19% over Maia-3 (30% lower NLL), with the engine-feature lift largest at high Elo. The player embedding adds little to raw move-matching on top of this base – its marginal top-1 gain falls within the 95% confidence interval – and its value is instead representational: z generalizes to held-out decisions without overfitting, re-identifies players from disjoint games above chance, and a linear probe recovers rating from z with only R^2 = 0.06 (no better nonlinearly), evidence it captures style on an Elo-orthogonal axis. We argue that a strong rating-conditioned base plus a compact, Elo-disentangled embedding – separating typical play from individual deviation – is an economical, interpretable model of individual style, an alternative to per-player preference fine-tuning.

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23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Focus When Necessary: Adaptive Routing and Collaborative Grounding for Training-Free Visual Grounding

Authors:
Yifan Wang↗Peiming Li↗Shiyu Li↗Zhiyuan Hu↗Xiaochen Yang↗Wenming Yang↗Yang Tang↗Zheng Wei↗

While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) excel in cross-modal reasoning, they often struggle to perceive fine-grained details in complex high-resolution images. Recent training-free methods address this through image scaling and localized cropping. However, applying these manipulations indiscriminately introduces computational redundancy for simple queries and can degrade accuracy by truncating essential global context or introducing irrelevant background noise. To this end, we propose LazyMCoT, a dynamic and training-free framework that adaptively allocates visual grounding efforts based on sample difficulty. The framework features an Adaptive Routing mechanism that evaluates predictive uncertainty using first-token statistics from a single forward pass. This efficiently bypasses confident cases while ensuring the recall of difficult samples via conformal calibration. For these challenging cases, a Collaborative Grounding module integrates the inherent cross-modal attention of the model with an external visual expert through a two-stage refinement process. This refinement process generates a precise localized display to recover small or occluded targets. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that LazyMCoT rivals training-based approaches by simultaneously improving reasoning accuracy and reducing average inference latency. Our code is availble at https://github.com/TencentBAC/LazyMCoT.

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24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Understanding Sample Efficiency in Predictive Coding

Authors:
Gaspard Oliviers↗Elene Lominadze↗Rafal Bogacz↗

arXiv:2605.11911v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Predictive Coding (PC) is an influential account of cortical learning. Much of recent work has focused on comparing PC to Backpropagation (BP) to find whether PC offers any advantages. Small scale experiments show that PC enables learning that is more sample efficient and effective in many contexts, though a thorough theoretical understanding of the phenomena remains elusive. To address this, we quantify the efficiency of learning in BP and PC through a metric called ``target alignment'', which measures how closely the change in the output of the network is aligned to the output prediction error. We then derive and empirically validate analytical expressions for target alignment in Deep Linear Networks. We show that learning in PC is more efficient than BP, which is especially pronounced in deep, narrow and pre-trained networks. We also derive exact conditions for guaranteed optimal target alignment in PC and validate our findings through experiments. We study full training trajectories of linear and non-linear models, and find the predicted benefits of PC persist in practice even when some assumptions are violated. Overall, this work provides a mechanistic understanding of the higher learning efficiency observed for PC over BP in previous works, and can guide how PC should be parametrised to learn most effectively.

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25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Towards Leveraging AutoML for Sustainable Deep Learning: A Multi-Objective HPO Approach on Deep Shift Neural Networks

Authors:
Leona Hennig↗Tanja Tornede↗Marius Lindauer↗

arXiv:2404.01965v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deep Learning (DL) has advanced various fields by extracting complex patterns from large datasets. However, the computational demands of DL models pose environmental and resource challenges. Deep shift neural networks (DSNNs) offer a solution by leveraging shift operations to reduce computational complexity at inference. Following the insights from standard DNNs, we are interested in leveraging the full potential of DSNNs by means of AutoML techniques. We study the impact of hyperparameter optimization (HPO) to maximize DSNN performance while minimizing resource consumption. Since this combines multi-objective (MO) optimization with accuracy and energy consumption as potentially complementary objectives, we propose to combine state-of-the-art multi-fidelity (MF) HPO with multi-objective optimization. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, resulting in models with over 80\% in accuracy and low computational cost. Overall, our method accelerates efficient model development while enabling sustainable AI applications.

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