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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

SPDA-SAM: A Self-prompted Depth-Aware Segment Anything Model for Instance Segmentation

Recently, Segment Anything Model (SAM) has demonstrated strong generalizability in various instance segmentation tasks. However, its performance is severely dependent on the quality of manual prompts. In addition, the RGB images that instance segmentation methods normally use inherently lack depth information. As a result, the ability of these methods to perceive spatial structures and delineate object boundaries is hindered. To address these challenges, we propose a Self-prompted Depth-Aware SAM (SPDA-SAM) for instance segmentation. Specifically, we design a Semantic-Spatial Self-prompt Module (SSSPM) which extracts the semantic and spatial prompts from the image encoder and the mask decoder of SAM, respectively. Furthermore, we introduce a Coarse-to-Fine RGB-D Fusion Module (C2FFM), in which the features extracted from a monocular RGB image and the depth map estimated from it are fused. In particular, the structural information in the depth map is used to provide coarse-grained guidance to feature fusion, while local variations in depth are encoded in order to fuse fine-grained feature representations. To our knowledge, SAM has not been explored in such self-prompted and depth-aware manners. Experimental results demonstrate that our SPDA-SAM outperforms its state-of-the-art counterparts across twelve different data sets. These promising results should be due to the guidance of the self-prompts and the compensation for the spatial information loss by the coarse-to-fine RGB-D fusion operation.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

AVIS: Adaptive Test-Time Scaling for Vision-Language Models

Modern Vision-Language Models (VLMs) benefit from chain-of-thought prompting and test-time scaling, but these gains often come with prohibitive inference cost due to large visual contexts and long decoding chains. We view this cost through two coupled axes: Visual Context Scaling (VCS), which controls how much visual evidence is passed to the language model, and Visual Reasoning Scaling (VRS), which controls how much inference-time reasoning search is performed. Existing methods typically optimize one axis at a time, leaving the joint allocation of compute across these axes underexplored. We introduce Adaptive Visual Inference Scaling (AVIS), a lightweight policy that adapts both VCS and VRS per query. AVIS realizes VCS through Key Diversity Visual (KDV) pruning, a training-free $O(N)$ key-based rule for removing redundant visual tokens before prefilling, and realizes VRS through adaptive self-consistency, using a learned difficulty predictor to select the number of reasoning rollouts. AVIS is deployment-friendly and compatible with shared-prefill inference, where all rollouts reuse a single prefilling pass and KV cache. Across diverse image and video reasoning benchmarks, AVIS improves the accuracy–compute trade-off relative to VCS-only and VRS-only baselines, and remains effective on top of RL post-trained VLMs while keeping compute and latency low.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Mask Proposal Voting Based on Geodesic Framework for Robust Image Segmentation

Despite great advances, finding accurate segmentation remains a challenging task, especially in scenarios with cluttered backgrounds, complex intensity variations and topology appearance. Minimal path models have exhibited their strong ability in addressing image segmentation tasks. However, the performance of minimal paths-based segmentation approaches is heavily influenced by model initialization, hence limiting their application scope in practice. In this work, we propose a novel mask proposal voting framework that overcomes the major drawback of classical approaches, allowing robust segmentation even in complicated scenarios. Firstly, we introduce an efficient method for constructing adaptive domain cuts as a constraint for initializing the region-based min-cut evolution, by which diverse and reliable mask proposal candidates can be generated, substantially increasing the possibility of accurately covering the objective region by these proposals. Secondly, we propose a new mask voting scheme to build a voting score map encoding the final segmentation information. In contrast to classical path voting methods, our model allows incorporating priors to assign different importance to each individual mask. As a consequence, the proposed segmentation model is capable of accurately delineating object boundaries under complex scenarios, and is insensitive to initialization. Experiments demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art minimal path-based approaches in both accuracy and robustness.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Holding the FP8 Quality Ceiling at 8-Bit Weights and Activations: INT8 and GGUF Post-Training Quantization of Ideogram 4.0 for Consumer GPUs

arXiv:2606.12280v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Post-training quantization lets large text-to-image diffusion transformers run on consumer GPUs, yet the hardware-specific trade-offs are seldom measured directly. We quantize Ideogram 4.0 - a 9.3B flow-matching diffusion transformer (DiT), shipped as two separate-weight copies of a single-stream 34-layer backbone for classifier-free guidance and conditioned by a Qwen3-VL-8B encoder - for Ampere RTX 3090 GPUs, which lack FP8 tensor cores. Our INT8 W8A8 recipe (per-channel weights, per-token dynamic activations, SmoothQuant, and mixed-precision protection of a small high-fragility layer set) holds the FP8 quality ceiling: on a 200-prompt benchmark the paired same-seed bootstrap CI for INT8-FP8 includes zero on both Pick and CLIP, while INT8 improves on NF4 by $+1.9$ CLIP (95% CI $[+1.21,+2.64]$, excluding zero). A per-category OCR analysis, to our knowledge unreported for this model class, confirms text legibility is preserved, and an ablation isolates protection of the FFN down-projections as the dominant quality lever. Our GGUF Q4_K quantization beats NF4 at equal on-disk size and is the Pareto winner on the quality-memory frontier, with paired confidence intervals excluding zero (Q8_0 is quality neutral). Finally, we characterize where 8-bit quantization helps and where it does not: INT8's weights match FP8's footprint rather than shrink it, so a speed gain on Ampere awaits a fused INT8 kernel.

06.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-18

Metrics for Evaluating Biological AI Model Predictive Accuracy at the Data-Substrate Level

Authors:

Reports in the biological literature disagree on whether a given model can predict a biological outcome from a given data sample — one study finding a model capable, another, on the same kind of data, finding it is not. This is particularly a challenge in relation to LLMs–where the models are large and opaque, with weights and training data inaccessible.textbf{ }Such disagreements cannot be settled by directly inspecting the model. To address this challenge, we considertextbf{ }an alternative approach: assessing whether the data sample is adequate to support the prediction asserted. For a given dataset, its substrate — the underlying structure of the data — determines what any model can recover, independent of architecture or capacity. At the same time, predicting the present state of a biological process and predicting the direction of its future change are different tasks; the second is supportable among AI models only where the data encode direction as determinable from the state — a property we call encoding — and is unsupportable where the same observed state precedes change in opposite directions — a property we call non-identifiability, in the informational rather than the statistical sense. We introduce two generic metrics, Predictive Blindness Risk (PBR) and Prediction Indeterminacy Measure (PIM), that evaluate a data substrate for predictive accuracy directly — without access to model weights, architecture, or training data — and locate the regions of a data substrate where a predictive claim can be supported and where it cannot. Using human biological subjects, we employ the Yale Brain Metastases Longitudinal Data (1,430 human subjects; 11,892 MRI studies; four sequences) and show that direction of change was non-identifiable across regions encompassing the majority of transitions; a nonlinear AI model gained essentially nothing over majority-direction prediction there while recovering direction near-perfectly where the state encoded it; and model accuracy tracked data-substrate resolvability continuously (Spearman {rho} = -0.95 to -1.00). The metrics adjudicate, before any model is trusted and from the data alone, where claims of predictive accuracy — of state, or of the law of change — can be supported.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Anytime-Valid Confirmation of Label-Shift Corrections

Authors:

arXiv:2606.14028v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In small-batch scientific deployments, labeled target outcomes may be too scarce for reliable shift estimation even when unlabeled target inputs are available. We address the complementary setting where the practitioner has a pre-specified label-shift correction from domain knowledge and asks whether incoming labeled outcomes support it. We show that the per-observation likelihood ratio between a label-shift-corrected predictive and the source predictive is a conditional e-value, so its running product is a nonnegative martingale and Ville's inequality yields an anytime-valid confirmation rule. The log martingale equals the cumulative negative log-predictive density (NLPD) gap between the source and the corrected predictive, converting routine model monitoring into a formal sequential test. Rejection means the incoming data support the posited correction relative to the source predictive, but it is not a precise estimate of the degree of shift. Closed forms are available for GP sources with Gaussian label-shift ratios. GP regression simulations validate Type I control, finite-sample power, miscalibration sensitivity, and the small-batch advantage of a reliable prior over label-based re-estimation.

08.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-25

Closed Quantum Boltzmann Bridges: Coherent Revivals, Hidden Microstates, and the Emergence of Classical Two-Time Entropy Conditioning

arXiv:2606.25260v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The classical Boltzmann Bridge describes entropy histories conditioned on both an initial low-entropy macrostate and a later macrostate. Unlike the usual past-only formulation of the thermodynamic arrow, this two-time conditioning can produce entropy profiles that rise above the final entropy and then decrease toward the imposed endpoint. In this work, we formulate closed quantum analogues of the Boltzmann Bridge using macro-subspace projectors, unitary time evolution, and Boltzmann entropy defined by the dimension of coarse-grained macroscopic sectors. We first study a minimal coherent chamber-qubit model, in which each particle has only a two-state chamber degree of freedom. Although this model is the most direct quantization of the classical two-box system, its bridge entropy profile is dominated by coherent oscillations and revivals rather than classical relaxation. We then introduce a hidden-microstate bridge, in which each chamber sector contains unresolved internal degrees of freedom while the full dynamics remain unitary. Numerical experiments show that increasing the internal Hilbert-space dimension suppresses sample-dependent revival behavior and produces bridge entropy profiles whose sign structure and coarse-grained shape increasingly agree with the classical Boltzmann Bridge. We further use a Random Forest classifier to explore the parameter regime separating revival-dominated quantum behavior from classical-like coarse-grained bridge behavior. These results suggest that classical two-time-conditioned entropy behavior is not recovered by quantizing the chamber variable alone, but can emerge statistically from closed quantum.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-25

Anomalous topological superradiant phases

arXiv:2606.25635v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present a novel set of light-matter topology realized by implementing a finite-component quantum Rabi array with a photonic analog of the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger (SSH) configuration. We demonstrate how complex light-matter couplings with species-dependent phases lead to the closure of superradiance-induced band gap in a manner that differs from that in the SSH model. We uncover an topological superradiant phase transition from a normal phase to a topological superradiant electromagnet phase, which is characterized both by a local order parameter and a global topological invariant. Novel superradiance-enhanced edge states emerge with significantly amplified excitations superior to those in topological normal phase. Strikingly, tuning light-atom coupling induces novel topological superradiant electric and magnetic phases, exhibiting chiral edge-mode excitation at opposite boundaries. Our proposed setup offers a tunable platform for topological quantum optics, advancing applications in topological superradiant lasers.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

OR-Action: Multi-Role Video Understanding with Fine-Grained Actions

Fine-grained understanding of operating room (OR) activity could enable workflow-aware assistance, yet remains difficult due to clutter, occlusions, and limited sensing. The prevailing approach to model this environment is scene graphs as an interpretable representation of OR interactions. Converting their frame-wise relational predictions into temporally extended, fine-grained actions however, is challenging without explicit temporal modeling. To enable a principled temporal evaluation of current OR understanding methods, we introduce the first action-centric benchmark built on a publicly available ego-exocentric OR dataset by defining a fine-grained, multi-role action taxonomy and generating dense action segments via distillation from ground-truth scene graph state changes. Experiments on this benchmark show that current scene graph prediction methods struggle to model temporal structure, even when adding explicit modeling through Graph Neural Networks. We therefore introduce a vision-only temporal model that outperforms graph-based methods significantly when using all available egocentric video as input. Building on this model we also introduce a novel multi- to single-view feature alignment strategy that improves single-view performance on multi-role action recognition, mitigating the need for extensive egocentric video capture. Benchmark and code will be released upon acceptance.

11.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-15

Daily briefing: Iron-Age human bones were made into tools before interment

Authors:

Newly uncovered bones hint at how Iron Age Britons treated their dead. Plus, AI models have failed to beat human mathematicians at research-level problems and the everyday items that make great scientific tools. Newly uncovered bones hint at how Iron Age Britons treated their dead. Plus, AI models have failed to beat human mathematicians at research-level problems and the everyday items that make great scientific tools.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Simulation of Language Evolution under Regulated Social Media Platforms: A Synergistic Approach of Large Language Models and Genetic Algorithms

arXiv:2502.19193v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Social media platforms frequently impose restrictive policies to moderate user content, prompting the emergence of creative evasion language strategies. This paper presents a multi-agent framework based on Large Language Models (LLMs) to simulate the iterative evolution of language strategies under regulatory constraints. In this framework, participant agents, as social media users, continuously evolve their language expression, while supervisory agents emulate platform-level regulation by assessing policy violations. To achieve a more faithful simulation, we employ a dual design of language strategies (constraint and expression) to differentiate conflicting goals and utilize an LLM-driven GA (Genetic Algorithm) for the selection, mutation, and crossover of language strategies. The framework is evaluated using two distinct scenarios: an abstract password game and a realistic simulated illegal pet trade scenario. Experimental results demonstrate that as the number of dialogue rounds increases, both the number of uninterrupted dialogue turns and the accuracy of information transmission improve significantly. Furthermore, a user study with 40 participants validates the real-world relevance of the generated dialogues and strategies. Moreover, ablation studies validate the importance of the GA, emphasizing its contribution to long-term adaptability and improved overall results.

13.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

A note on the $\mathcal{W}_2$-convergence rate of the empirical measure of an ergodic $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued diffusion

arXiv:2502.07704v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In this note, we consider a Stochastic Differential Equation under a strong confluence and Lipschitz continuity assumption of the coefficients. For the unique stationary solution, we study the rate of convergence of its empirical measure toward the invariant probability measure. We provide rate for the Wasserstein distance in the mean quadratic and almost sure sense.

15.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Bound State Solutions of the Relativistic Finite-difference Equation for the Ring-shaped Quesne Oscillator Potential

arXiv:2606.12082v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We solve exactly the relativistic finite-difference equation for the quantum three-dimensional ring-shaped Quesne oscillator potential. Our investigation is based on a finite-difference version of relativistic quantum mechanics. So-called relativistic configurational r-space is a key concept here. We show that the radial wavefunctions and angular wavefunctions are expressed through the continuous dual Hahn polynomials and Jacobi polynomials, respectively. A discrete energy spectrum has been found. The radial wave functions and energy spectrum have the correct nonrelativistic limit. We also build a dynamical symmetry group SU (1, 1) for the radial part of the equation of motion, which allows us to find the energy spectrum purely algebraically.

16.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-25

Imprecise Transition Matrices for Markov Cohort Models: Lower and Upper Expectations with a Practical Health Economic Application

arXiv:2606.25716v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In applied health research, Markov cohort models are built on a precisely specified transition probability matrix. However, in many applications, the available evidence – transition counts, structural constraints, and treatment-effect data – identifies a set of admissible matrices rather than one uniquely justified matrix. This paper formulates an imprecise-probability extension in which inference yields lower and upper expectations over an evidence-compatible set of precise Markov cohort models. The contribution differs from existing imprecise Markov-chain work by focusing on finite-horizon cohort trajectories, additive accumulated outcomes, and transition matrices constructed from empirical transition counts. Under non-empty compact separately specified outgoing-row sets, the lower and upper accumulated outcomes are computed exactly by Bellman-style lower and upper transition operators. We prove the envelope theorem, reduction to the classical model, coherence properties of the lower transition operator, and algebraic conditions under which a single selected matrix yields a non-robust decision. We then show how multinomial transition counts induce admissible matrix sets through the Imprecise Dirichlet Model. A real-world cost-effectiveness example of patent foramen ovale closure after cryptogenic stroke illustrates the practical consequence: the empirical transition matrix slightly favors closure, whereas the imprecise analysis yields an incremental net monetary benefit interval crossing zero. The method provides both a rigorous lower-expectation formulation and a practical diagnostic for decisions that depend on transition probabilities not fully resolved by the evidence.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Pre-AF 13: An Interpretable Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score Mined from Discharge Reports

Background. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia and a major determinant of prognosis. Established AF risk scores rely on factors (older age, hypertension) nearly ubiquitous among patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD), offering limited stratification in this high-risk group. Most target long-term (5-10 year) rather than medium-term prediction. We developed interpretable ML models predicting AF risk over a 24-month and entire follow-up horizon in CVD patients using routinely collected hospital data. Methods. Single-center retrospective study of electronic health records from the National Research Cardiology Center (Russia) for patients aged >=18 with CVD but without pre-existing AF, hospitalized more than once between January 2012 and May 2019. A custom NLP pipeline transformed unstructured discharge reports into 73 structured features, combining a rule-based parser with transformer-based NER. Using LightAutoML we built a full model (73 features), a simple model (reduced subset), and a linear model for a bedside risk score. Performance was assessed by ROC AUC, compared with CHARGE-AF, C2HEST, MHS, and HAVOC, and interpreted via SHAP. Results. Of 80,576 records from 45,000 patients, 17,562 met inclusion criteria; 1,438 (8.19%) developed AF. The full model reached ROC AUC 0.735 (24-month) and 0.696 (entire follow-up); the simple model was nearly identical (0.725, 0.696). All non-linear models outperformed the four clinical risk scores (ROC AUC 0.53-0.64). The simple model uses 13 features and is named Pre-AF 13. SHAP identified age and left atrial volume as dominant predictors. A linear risk score (Pre-AF 9) stratified observed 24-month AF incidence from ~7% to 36%. Conclusion. Interpretable ML models built from routinely collected EHR data identify high-AF-risk CVD patients, outperforming established clinical risk scores.

18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Margin in Abstract Spaces

arXiv:2603.07221v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Margin-based learning, exemplified by linear and kernel methods, is one of the few classical settings where generalization guarantees are independent of the number of parameters. This makes it a central case study in modern highly over-parameterized learning. We ask what minimal mathematical structure underlies this phenomenon. We begin with a simple margin-based problem in arbitrary metric spaces: concepts are defined by a center point and classify points according to whether their distance lies below $r$ or above $R$. We show that whenever $R>3r$, this class is learnable in any metric space. Thus, sufficiently large margins make learnability rely only on the triangle inequality, without any linear or analytic structure being necessary. Our first main result extends this phenomenon to concepts defined by bounded linear combinations of distance functions, and reveals a sharp threshold: there exists a universal constant such that whenever the margin is larger than this constant, the class is learnable in every metric space, while below it there exist metric spaces where it is not learnable at all. We then ask whether margin-based learnability can always be explained via an embedding into a linear space – that is, reduced to linear classification in some Banach space through a kernel-type construction. We answer this negatively by demonstrating a margin learnable class that cannot be embedded into any Banach space in which linear classification with margins is learnable.

19.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

AI translation of literary texts is "fine", but readers still prefer human translations

AI translation of literary works is increasingly common. While the content may be rendered adequately, we do not know enough about how readers experience it in terms of immersiveness and literary effect, aspects poorly captured by automatic machine translation metrics or human evaluation targeting fluency and adequacy. We ask 15 avid readers to compare recently published human translations (HT) to machine translations (MT) generated with an agentic large language model (LLM)-based pipeline, for 15 recent novels in French, Polish, and Japanese and translated into English. Readers evaluated approximately 8K-word excerpts in two conditions: immersive reading of the whole excerpt (30 comparisons) and close reading of 386 aligned HT-MT chunk pairs (772 comparisons), with two readers per book and in alternating order of presentation. Overall, readers find MT "fine", but prefer HT (slightly at excerpt-level 19/30, more clearly at chunk-level 522/772) for its ease, clarity, and immersive nature. Readers' highlights show that MT's quality varies more within one book than HT's does. Crucially, readers cannot reliably tell the two apart (17/30 guess correctly) and tend to prefer the version they believe to be human. Automatic metrics, including LLM-as-a-judge approaches, fail to recover reader preferences and favor MT. We release LAIT (Literary AI Translation), a reader-centered evaluation dataset with 1K reader comments, 2K judgments and preference ratings, and 7.2K span-level annotations, along with our evaluation protocol and supporting interface.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Any2Any: Efficient Cross-Embodiment Transfer for Humanoid Whole-Body Tracking

arXiv:2605.23733v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Whole-body tracking (WBT) models have become a key foundation for humanoid robots, enabling them to imitate diverse motions with high fidelity. Training such models from scratch requires large-scale data and computation, making rapid deployment on new humanoid platforms costly. This raises a natural question: Can pretrained WBT models transfer across embodiments with minimal adaptation? To answer this question, we propose Any2Any, a paradigm that efficiently transfers an existing WBT specialist to a new humanoid embodiment with only a small amount of data and compute. Any2Any first performs kinematic alignment between source and target humanoids, aligning their input and output spaces so that the pretrained source policy can be meaningfully reused on the target embodiment.Any2Any then performs dynamics adaptation by applying lightweight parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) components to selected dynamics-sensitive modules, preserving useful behavioral priors while enabling targeted adaptation to the target robot. Extensive experiments on multiple humanoid platforms and pretrained backbones show that Any2Any substantially accelerates convergence and reduces training cost compared with training from scratch, while achieving competitive or superior tracking performance. Notably, using only 1% of the compute and data required for full training, Any2Any successfully transfers Sonic models pre-trained on Unitree G1 to LimX Oli and LimX Luna. These results suggest that pretrained WBT specialists can be efficiently reused across embodiments, providing a scalable path toward deploying humanoid whole-body control on new robots.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Learning universal approximations for partial differential equations with Physics-Informed Broad Learning System

arXiv:2606.19754v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Partial differential equations (PDEs) play a central role in modeling complex physical, biological, and engineering systems. While traditional numerical solvers are robust, they often incur prohibitive computational costs due to mesh dependencies, whereas recent Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) offer a mesh-free alternative but frequently suffer from slow convergence and optimization instability. To bridge this gap, this article proposes the Physics-Informed Broad Learning System (PIBLS), a novel backpropagation-free framework that reformulates PDE solving as a direct least-squares optimization. We improved an algorithm within this framework to handle nonlinear PDEs efficiently and provide a rigorous mathematical proof establishing the universal approximation property of PIBLS for these equations. Experiments on linear and nonlinear PDEs demonstrate that PIBLS is one to three orders of magnitude faster than conventional PINNs while achieving significantly higher solution accuracy. This framework provides a computationally efficient paradigm for scientific machine learning, offering a practical, high-speed alternative for real-time simulation and design optimization tasks.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Memory Makes the Difference: Evaluating How Different Memory Roles Shape Conversational Agents

Prior research on memory mechanism in RAG-based conversational system has emphasized how memory is stored and retrieved. However, far less is known about how memories with different functional roles influence response quality. Specifically, how they shape an agent's responses under varying conversational contexts and whether they lead to substantively different response behaviors. Existing evaluations in conversational system are also largely reference-based, insufficiently capturing the nuances in responses that may address users' preferences differently. In this work, we probe the impact of different memory types in shaping agents' responses. We present a fine-grained taxonomy of conversational memory, classify retrieved memories into different role types, and design a user-centric evaluation framework that simulates user perspectives. Through comparative experiments on long-term datasets and frontier LLMs, our analysis reveal many differentiated effects of memories: e.g., clarifying memory improves responses' factual accuracy and constraint awareness, making them more correct and personalized; irrelevant memory reduces topic relevance and degrades constraint awareness. Despite the power of frontier LLMs, these findings shed light on how different memory types can be leveraged to produce more personalized responses and inspire further research in this direction.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

NetCause: Counterfactual Learning for Root Cause Analysis in Large-Scale Networks

arXiv:2606.13543v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Can a learned model capture how faults propagate through a large-scale network and use this knowledge to causally attribute customer impact to its underlying root cause? Existing root cause analysis techniques often rely on static rules, correlation heuristics, or topology-local reasoning, which struggle to generalize in dynamic environments where faults propagate across complex physical and logical dependencies. We present NetCause, a self-supervised learning-based framework that models network incidents as graph-temporal processes and uses counterfactual simulation to rank candidate root causes. This approach produces an interpretable ranking of root cause hypotheses and integrates naturally with operator-defined mitigation and remediation actions. We train the model on over 1,500 incidents collected over six months from a leading cloud provider's production network and evaluate it on 31 expert-labeled incidents. NetCause consistently improves root cause ranking quality in the regime most relevant to operational decision-making, achieving a 16.1% accuracy improvement over a rule-based heuristic baseline. While training is computationally intensive, inference is lightweight, requiring only seconds of GPU runtime per incident (well below typical telemetry collection latencies).

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Variational Graph Neural Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Inverse Problems

arXiv:2603.29515v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The increasingly wide use of deep machine learning techniques in computational mechanics has significantly accelerated simulations of problems that were considered unapproachable just a few years ago. However, in critical applications such as Digital Twins for engineering or medicine, fast responses are not enough; reliable results must also be provided. In certain cases, traditional deterministic methods may not be optimal as they do not provide a measure of confidence in their predictions or results, especially in inverse problems where the solution may not be unique or the initial data may not be entirely reliable due to the presence of noise, for instance. Classic deep neural networks also lack a clear measure to quantify the uncertainty of their predictions. In this work, we present a variational graph neural network (VGNN) architecture that integrates variational layers into its architecture to model the probability distribution of weights. Unlike computationally expensive full Bayesian networks, our approach strategically introduces variational layers exclusively in the decoder, allowing us to estimate cognitive uncertainty and statistical uncertainty at a relatively lower cost. In this work, we validate the proposed methodology in two cases of solid mechanics: the identification of the value of the elastic modulus with nonlinear distribution in a 2D elastic problem and the location and quantification of the loads applied to a 3D hyperelastic beam, in both cases using only the displacement field of each test as input data. The results show that the model not only recovers the physical parameters with high precision, but also provides confidence intervals consistent with the physics of the problem, as well as being able to locate the position of the applied load and estimate its value, giving a confidence interval for that experiment.