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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

CAP: Towards PPG Universal Representation Learning with Patient-level Supervision

arXiv:2606.15284v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Photoplethysmography (PPG) plays a central role in wearable health monitoring and clinical decision support. Yet existing approaches to universal PPG representation learning largely focus on signal-level objectives and often overlook patient-level health context, which limits generalization to complex clinical tasks and heterogeneous cohorts. To address this gap, we construct a large-scale paired PPG-EHR multimodal dataset by distilling fragmented medical histories and clinical records into cohesive, patient-level electronic health records (EHR). Building on this resource, we propose Clinical Anchored Pretraining for PPG (CAP). During pretraining, CAP performs cross-modal contrastive alignment that anchors PPG representations to patient-level clinical semantics, guiding the encoder beyond waveform fitting toward modeling consistency in a patient's overall physiological state. During downstream adaptation, the pretrained PPG encoder provides clinically grounded representations that strengthen inductive bias and improve robustness and transferability. Experiments demonstrate that CAP consistently outperforms strong baselines on four diverse downstream tasks. CAP achieves a particularly large gain on respiratory rate prediction (up to +87.6% relative improvement over the state-of-the-art baseline) and delivers an average relative +26.7% across all tasks. We further enhance the interpretability of our approach through comprehensive analyses, including ablations and multiple complementary visualizations of the learned representations. The code for our experiments is available at: https://github.com/gody123gody/CAP .

02.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Symptom-based phenotype discovery in motor neuron disease using natural language processing of electronic health records

Background: Motor neuron disease (MND) is a fatal neurodegenerative condition with significant clinical heterogeneity that is incompletely captured by existing phenotype classifications based on onset site. Electronic health records (EHRs) contain detailed symptom documentation in clinical narratives that may enable data-driven discovery of clinically meaningful patient subgroups. Methods: We developed a natural language processing (NLP) pipeline using MedCAT to extract symptoms from clinical notes of 2,361 people with a confirmed diagnosis of MND at a tertiary neurology center. MND cohort confirmation used three complementary methods: clinic attendance records, text-based diagnosis detection, and NLP extraction with negation detection. Extracted symptoms were filtered to Unified Medical Language System semantic type T184 (Sign or Symptom) with removal of negated concepts. Patients were clustered using latent class analysis on binary symptom profiles. Survival differences were assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis, log-rank tests, and Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: From the first clinical notes, we identified four clusters of symptoms among 872 patients and 76 symptoms: Motor-Bulbar (n=373), Motor-Tremor (n=154), Sensory-Pain (n=222), and Motor-Respiratory (n=123). When extended to all clinical notes (n=2,065; 184 symptoms), these reorganized into three clusters: Autonomic-Respiratory (n=472), Nocturnal-Respiratory (n=338), and Classic Motor (n=1,255). Survival differences were significant across all clusters in both the first notes and all notes analyses (log-rank p < 0.001). Conclusions: NLP-based symptom extraction from EHRs identifies clinically meaningful MND subgroups that extend beyond traditional onset-site classifications. Autonomic-respiratory symptom burden is associated with poorer survival while a newly identified Sensory-Pain subtype with a better prognosis. These data-driven phenotypes may improve prognostication and inform targeted supportive care.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Before You Think: System 0, AI-Mediated Cognition and Cognitive Colonization

arXiv:2606.13658v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper examines three recent frameworks for understanding the cognitive and epistemic consequences of artificial intelligence: Tri-System Theory, Thinkframes, and System 0. It argues that while the first two capture important dimensions of AI's influence on individual reasoning and collective epistemic practices, System 0 occupies a theoretically distinctive position that neither can fully replicate. The paper introduces the concept of cognitive colonization, according to which AI systems can embed external interests within the architecture of the self in ways that are difficult for users to perceive. Because such systems are already widely deployed, understanding these invisible forms of influence is an urgent philosophical and practical task.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Adaptive inference and function vectors in deep transformers

arXiv:2606.16694v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Transformers are widely used as a general-purpose substrate for learning complex correlations between a large collection of coupled variables, but their internal mechanisms have remained mysterious. We introduce a theory of a deep transformer as a mean-field interacting system that implements distributed inference, subject to constraints on communication, locality and depth. We show that such a system can exploit internal state representations ('function vectors') to infer a latent context variable at increasingly finer scales over its layers. In an in-context regression task, the theory predicts a non-trivial relationship between non-Gaussian, hierarchical structure in the latent context variable, and transformer depth. Predictions are tested using constrained linear attention transformers and demonstrate adaptive inference in deep architectures. Feedforward blocks and depth enable transformers to implement a much richer class of in-context learning algorithms than previously described.

05.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Multi-entropy in heavy local quenches

arXiv:2606.12526v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the time evolution of tripartite entanglement in heavy local quenches in two-dimensional holographic conformal field theories. Our diagnostic is the genuine multi-entropy of adjacent intervals, computed from both bulk and boundary perspectives. A perturbative bulk analysis shows that the first-order small-mass perturbation around the vacuum geodesic network cancels identically at any time after the quench. In the fully back-reacted geometry, a vacuum-subtracted genuine multi-entropy arises from a mismatch between the winding selected by the trivalent geodesic network and the windings selected independently by the pairwise geodesics. In the sharp quench limit, the time dependence of genuine multi-entropy is kinematically fixed to logarithms of rational functions of time and is independent of the heavy operator dimension. The CFT calculation reproduces the same formula within the heavy-light vacuum block approximation, where the branch choice in the heavy-background uniformization map corresponds to the winding selection in the bulk. These results indicate that, in this setup, the genuine multi-entropy is controlled by global saddle selection, rather than by a local energy response or quasiparticle propagation.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

MetaPlate: Counterfactual-Guided RAG-LLM Tool for Personalized Food Recommendation and Hyperglycemia Prevention

arXiv:2606.10120v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Postprandial hyperglycemia is a key risk factor for metabolic disorders; however, existing dietary guidance is often static, impractical, and insufficiently personalized, providing recommendations that are difficult to follow or not impactful. While recent advances leverage continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and machine learning to predict glycemic responses, these approaches are largely predictive and lack actionable guidance. Moreover, recommendation systems are often misaligned with user goals and require extensive input. We present MetaPlate, a counterfactual explanation (CF) guided, context-aware decision-support framework that generates personalized meal recommendations to mitigate postprandial glucose excursions in healthy adults. MetaPlate integrates multimodal data, including CGM readings, wearable-derived physiological signals, and user-provided meal inputs from $25$ individuals to model pre-meal context. A machine learning model predicts glucose response, while a CF optimization module adjusts meal composition modifying macronutrient amounts to maintain glucose levels within a target range ($\leq 140$ mg/dL). An LLM-based retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) layer enhances interpretability by producing human-readable recommendations using constrained search of the USDA food database. We evaluate MetaPlate via a structured expert-in-the-loop assessment with registered dietitians (RDs), comparing performance before and after prompt refinement. Results show improvements in meal realism, portion suitability, and recommendation likelihood, with expert feedback indicating a shift from clinically implausible outputs to actionable, contextually appropriate recommendations. Our findings emphasize the importance of domain knowledge and structured constraints in LLM-driven systems and highlight the potential of MetaPlate as a real-time personalized dietary decision-support tool.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Getting Better at Working With You: Compiling User Corrections into Runtime Enforcement for Coding Agents

Interactive LLM agents are becoming part of daily work, but they do not reliably become easier to work with over time: a correction remembered in one session may still be violated in the next. We study this gap between preference access and preference compliance. In tasks derived from anonymized real-user friction cases, Mem0 memory still leaves 57.5% of applicable preference checks violated. We introduce Test-time Rule Acquisition and Compiled Enforcement (TRACE), a drop-in skill-layer pipeline for coding-agent runtimes that mines user corrections, rewrites them as atomic rules, and compiles them into runtime checks that must pass before an agent completes future tasks. Unlike runtime checks written ahead of time by developers, TRACE skills come from the user's own chat corrections. We evaluate TRACE with simulated user-in-the-loop experiments on ClawArena coding-agent tasks and MemoryArena-derived memory-intensive tasks. On ClawArena, TRACE reduces held-out preference violation from 100.0% to 37.6% on in-distribution tasks and from 100.0% to 2.0% on out-of-distribution tasks. On MemoryArena-derived tasks, TRACE reduces in-distribution violation from 100.0% to 60.5% while matching or exceeding the strongest memory baseline on task pass. These results suggest that compiling corrections into runtime enforcement can address a repeated-friction failure mode that memory alone does not reliably solve, reducing the need for users to restate the same correction across future sessions. Experiment code is available at https://github.com/YujunZhou/TRACE_exp, and the deployable skill is available at https://github.com/YujunZhou/tellonce.

09.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-23

VCBench: A Multi-Dimensional Benchmark for Single-Cell Foundation Models

Single-cell foundation models are increasingly positioned as virtual cells, yet their capabilities are assessed by fragmented, largely single-task benchmarks that obscure where these models improve on simple baselines. VCBench addresses this by synthesizing four independent virtual-cell frameworks into seven capability dimensions: perturbation response prediction, cross-species universality, gene regulatory network (GRN) inference, modality integration, temporal dynamics, multi-scale integration, and in silico experimentation. Each dimension is assessed for operational testability under current architectures and datasets: five admit direct or proxy evaluation, while multi-scale integration and in silico experimentation are structurally untestable as end-to-end tasks. We evaluate five foundation models (Geneformer, scGPT, UCE, TranscriptFormer, Arc State) against pre-registered linear and nearest-neighbor baselines across the five testable dimensions, and report three findings. First, the baselines match or exceed every foundation model on four of the five scored dimensions, replicating the reported competitiveness of linear baselines on perturbation prediction and extending it to cross-species transfer, GRN inference, and temporal ordering. Second, TranscriptFormer alone exceeds the strongest baseline on cross-modal RNA-to-protein prediction (53% Pearson improvement, with a documented contamination caveat) and is the only model to reach Level 2 in the pre-registered Virtual Cell (VC) Level rubric; the architectural choice behind this advantage simultaneously causes a spectral collapse that destroys its temporal-ordering performance, a tradeoff invisible to single-task benchmarks. Third, no foundation model publishes a complete cell-level training manifest, leaving data contamination undetectable to users. Alongside the benchmark, VCBench releases a Contamination Reporting Schema and contributes two further methodological tools: a common-label-set protocol that controls for class-count confounds in cross-species transfer, and a spread-error correlation probe for epistemic calibration.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Latent-Conditioned Parameterized Quantum Circuits as Universal Approximators for Distributions over Quantum States

arXiv:2605.28690v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Many applications in quantum simulation, quantum chemistry, and quantum machine learning require not a single quantum state but an ensemble of states characterizing the heterogeneity of a target system. Preparing such ensembles state-by-state is prohibitive in both variational and fault-tolerant settings, thereby motivating a generative modeling approach. We introduce latent-conditioned parameterized quantum circuits (LPQCs), a hybrid quantum-classical framework in which classical neural networks map a latent variable sampled from a prior distribution to the parameters of a parameterized quantum circuit. We prove that LPQCs are universal approximators for probability measures over density operators in the 1-Wasserstein distance, extending classical universal approximation theorems to the quantum-distribution setting. We additionally introduce a multimodal latent prior and a mixture-of-experts circuit architecture, and show empirically that the latent-conditioned parameterization alleviates the barren plateau problem during optimization, a behavior for which we provide rigorous partial guarantees. Numerical experiments validate the framework on a synthetic multi-cluster ensemble of mixed quantum states and on a QM9-derived ensemble of 3-D molecular structures. In these tasks, LPQC outperforms recent quantum generative baselines and matches the generation quality of a classical neural-network baseline, while requiring an output dimension that grows only linearly with the number of qubits rather than exponentially. By leveraging classical expressivity in the latent space, LPQCs offer a tractable route to quantum generative modeling.

11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Selective Capability Unlearning in End-to-End Spoken Language Understanding

Modern spoken language understanding (SLU) systems are increasingly deployed in real-world settings, where specific functionalities may need to be removed due to policy or safety constraints. In SLU, a functionality corresponds to an intent and its associated slot-generation behavior. However, in autoregressive models, suppressing a target intent does not eliminate the conditional mapping that generates slots conditioned on that intent. When the intent prefix is externally supplied, the model can reconstruct the original intent-slot structure. We identify this structural failure as capability persistence. We propose \underline{Binding \underline{S}ubspace (BSU)}, a representation-level framework that isolates and attenuates intent-conditioned directions underlying this mapping. Across SLU benchmarks, BSU substantially reduces forced-prefix recoverability while preserving retained performance.

12.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

ScoreGate: Adaptive Chunk Selection for Retrieval-Augmented Generation via Dual-Score Statistical Fusion

Fixed-cardinality retrieval injects a constant top-K chunks into the generator regardless of query complexity, causing over-retrieval for narrow queries and under-retrieval for compositional ones. We describe ScoreGate, a lightweight score-space decision mechanism that controls retrieval cardinality at inference time using two scores already produced by the standard pipeline: bi-encoder similarity s_i and cross-encoder reranker score r_i, with no additional model inference calls required. Its core insight is that cross-encoder affirmation can rescue semantically relevant chunks that bi-encoder retrieval ranks poorly due to vocabulary mismatch – a failure mode unaddressed by fixed-K or single-score thresholding. On MS MARCO (200 dev queries), ScoreGate achieves MRR@10 = 0.401 with 35% fewer retained chunks than Standard Top-K. On an internal benchmark (n=300, Fleiss' kappa=0.87), ScoreGate observed zero false positives (95% CI [96.4%, 100%]) at 97.77-99.34% recall, with 34.8% fewer tokens per query and only 31ms added latency. Results on both MS MARCO and real-world production traffic suggest that adaptive retrieval cardinality can improve retrieval efficiency without degrading retrieval quality.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Cross-Silo De-Anonymization Under Local Differential Privacy: Threat Model, Phase Transition, and Coordination Necessity

arXiv:2606.16763v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When a person's records appear in k independent data silos, each protected by (epsilon, delta)-differential privacy, standard composition yields a valid (k*epsilon, k*delta)-DP guarantee for the joint output. This worst-case bound, however, does not answer the concrete inference question: at what k can an adversary actually identify a target person? This paper develops the information-theoretic framework needed to answer that question. We introduce cross-silo person-level DP (XSP-DP), a Pufferfish-style privacy notion whose adjacency relation captures all records of a single person across all silos simultaneously, and verify that the standard basic composition bound carries over to this adjacency model. Within this framework we prove that de-anonymization undergoes a phase transition at k* = Theta(log n / epsilon^2) (population size n, per-silo RR parameter epsilon): a Fano lower bound shows any estimator fails for k > k*. An explicit XOR + randomized-response construction demonstrates information synergy: each silo's output is individually uninformative about the target, yet the joint mutual information is strictly positive. For non-coordinated binary randomized-response mechanisms, we prove that de-anonymization is inevitable once k exceeds the threshold, establishing that cross-silo coordination is necessary. These results provide a baseline threat model and Theta-level threshold for cross-silo inference attacks under local DP.

14.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Computational Decomposition of New Memory Failure in Alzheimer's Disease Through a Hippocampal Cortical Consolidation Bottleneck Model

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is clinically marked by difficulty retaining newly learned information, yet routine memory scores often conflate poor initial encoding with failure to stabilise information after encoding. This ambiguity limits the mechanistic interpretability of cognitive assessment during the transition from mild cognitive impairment to AD. Here we propose a Hippocampal Cortical Consolidation Bottleneck (HCCB) model to computationally separate these two components of new memory failure. The model represents newly presented information as a rapidly formed hippocampal trace and a slowly stabilised cortical trace, predicting a residual bottleneck when delayed recall falls below the level expected from immediate recall. We operationalised this prediction as Consolidation Bottleneck Index*(CBI*), a cognitively normal reference normalised residual index, and evaluated it using Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cognitive and MRI data, with independent dynamical support from OpenNeuro EEG. Simulations showed recent memory vulnerability when hippocampal vulnerability exceeded cortical vulnerability. In ADNI, CBI* increased from cognitively normal participants to mild cognitive impairment nonconverters, reached Alzheimer like levels in mild cognitive impairment converters, and was associated with hippocampal atrophy. CBI* added minimal discrimination beyond established clinical and structural predictors, supporting its role as a mechanistic phenotype rather than a replacement prognostic model. OpenNeuro EEG further showed increased neurodynamic rigidity in AD. Our findings provide a computational framework for quantifying failed stabilisation of newly encoded information in AD progression.

15.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Explosion and non-explosion in pure birth Crump–Mode–Jagers branching processes

arXiv:2601.06850v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In this short note, we provide an explicit sufficient condition for non-explosion of Crump–Mode–Jagers branching processes with pure birth reproduction. It shows that the standard sufficient condition for explosion, namely the convergence of the series of reciprocals of the birth rates, is – at least for rate sequences without excessive oscillations – remarkably close to being necessary. At the same time, it is not necessary in full generality: we construct a counterexample which also yields a general preferential attachment tree without fitness with an infinite path and no vertices of infinite degree, thereby answering an open question previously raised in the literature.

16.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Specialty Choice Attitudes Among Medical Interns: Evidence from Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences

Background: Choosing a medical specialty is a critical career decision that affects both physicians future professional lives and the composition of the healthcare workforce. Specialty preferences are shaped by multiple personal, educational, and socioeconomic factors, yet evidence from senior medical students in southern Iran remains limited. This study aimed to assess willingness to pursue specialty training among medical interns at Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences, identify their preferred specialties, and examine factors associated with their decisions. Methods: This descriptive-analytical cross-sectional study was conducted in 2023 among medical interns at Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences in Bandar Abbas, Iran. Using a convenience census approach, all eligible interns were invited to participate, and 83 students completed an online questionnaire. The instrument collected demographic, academic, and occupational data, as well as reasons for willingness or unwillingness to pursue specialty training and specialty preferences. Content and face validity were assessed by faculty members and students, and internal consistency reliability in the present study was acceptable (Cronbach alpha = 0.82). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression in SPSS version 27. Results: Of the 83 participants, 50 (60.2%) reported willingness to pursue specialty training, while 33 (39.8%) did not. Among students willing to continue, the most frequently cited reasons were achieving a better economic position, broader job opportunities, and higher social status. Among those unwilling to continue, the most common reasons were fatigue from prolonged studying, financial problems, and the desire to start working after graduation. Radiology was the most common first-choice specialty, followed by otorhinolaryngology, dermatology, and cardiology. In regression analyses, no demographic or academic variable remained independently associated with willingness to pursue specialty training in the final multivariable model. Conclusions: A majority of medical interns were interested in pursuing specialty training, with preferences concentrated in a limited number of specialties perceived as offering favorable financial prospects, prestige, and lifestyle. Economic concerns and educational fatigue were the dominant factors influencing willingness and unwillingness to continue specialty education. These findings highlight the need for structured career counseling, broader exposure to different specialties, and policy measures to address financial and structural barriers to residency training. Keywords: medical specialty choice; medical interns; residency training; medical education; Hormozgan university of medical sciences

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

ForensicsTok: Forensics-Guided Tokenized Modeling for Image Tampering Localization

Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) offer powerful reasoning for forensic tasks, yet existing approaches utilizing exogenous segmentation decoders often suffer from suboptimal localization. The reliance on stitched pipelines introduces information bottlenecks during backpropagation, which dilutes spatial signals and is limited by semantic priors of the segmentor. To address these limitations, we propose ForensicsTok, which reformulates image manipulation localization as an autoregressive sequence generation task. ForensicsTok directly generates spatially grounded token sequences, enabling precise mask prediction without intermediary supervision. Specifically, we introduce a Token Splatting Decoder (TSD) to map tokens to binary masks via codebook-aware code smoothing, which mitigates sharp gradients from deterministic detokenizers. Furthermore, to capture diverse tampering clues, we propose a Hierarchical Expert Fusion (HEF) module that injects multi-scale features from a forensic expert model. This unified architecture effectively compensates for the lack of forensic priors in standard MLLMs. Extensive experiments on six benchmarks show that ForensicsTok substantially improves over existing MLLM-based baselines and slightly improves over strong forensic expert baselines, while exhibiting stronger robustness to perturbations.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

FragFuse: Bypassing Access Control of Large Language Model Agents via Memory-Based Query Fragmentation and Fusion

arXiv:2606.15609v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly rely on long-term memory to support complex task execution, user personalization, and domain adaptation. Meanwhile, emerging access-control mechanisms for LLM agents are being explored to block policy-violating requests and prevent misuse. We reveal a novel attack surface arising from agent memory operations: prohibited content that would trigger access control can be fragmented across interactions, stored in long-term memory in benign-appearing form, and later reconstructed through memory retrieval without appearing explicitly in the final user query. We propose FragFuse, the first attack that enables unprivileged users to bypass agent access control by exploiting this temporal channel introduced by long-term memory. FragFuse operates in three stages: (1) identifying rejection-responsive fragments via black-box adaptive querying with fragment masking; (2) injecting these fragments into memory using marker carrier queries; and (3) retrieving and fusing the stored fragments through a follow-up attack query. Although FragFuse can be instantiated manually for individual agents, we further develop a surrogate-based optimization scheme that tunes fusion instructions and marker designs, enabling automated attack generation without violating the attacker's threat-model assumptions. We evaluate FragFuse across four representative agent settings and task domains, covering three state-of-the-art agent access-control mechanisms. FragFuse achieves an average bypass success rate of 86.3% and an average end-to-end harmful task success rate of 41.1% across all settings, with only 4.4% average task-success degradation compared with configurations without access control. We also show that alternative defenses, including state-of-the-art prompt-injection detectors and perplexity detectors, do not effectively address this attack.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

From Physics to Representation: Audio Learning with Synthetic Pre-training via Procedural Generation

arXiv:2606.14791v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Self-supervised learning advances audio representation for multimedia analysis. However, prevailing data-centric approaches rely on massive real-world corpora, increasing training costs, curation burdens, and privacy barriers. To address this, we present AudioPG, a procedural synthesis framework eliminating real audio recordings during pre-training. AudioPG trains a Transformer-based masked autoencoder on waveforms generated on-the-fly from basic acoustic primitives and composition rules. The encoder transfers effectively to real audio benchmarks, achieving 90.60% accuracy on ESC-50, 0.546 mAP on FSD50K, 88.17% on UrbanSound8K, and 97.03% on Speech Commands V2. Notably, pre-training completes in under 20 minutes on a single GPU. Latent space analysis reveals physical factors, including fundamental frequency and relative intensity, emerge in orthogonal subspaces, making representations linearly decodable. These results establish procedural synthesis as an efficient, interpretable pre-training signal when large-scale corpora are unavailable. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Freyliu0516/audioPG.

20.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

Probabilistic representation and classical solutions of wave equations with complex polynomial nonlinearities

arXiv:2606.18919v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We review the probabilistic representation of solutions of wave equations with polynomial nonlinearities in spatial dimensions d=1,2,3 using stochastic branching processes. Under regularity assumptions on the initial data, we derive conditions ensuring the integrability of the corresponding Monte Carlo estimator, and the existence and smoothness of mild and classical solutions. We also present numerical results and comparisons with grid-based algorithms for the solution of nonlinear wave equations.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Program Evaluation with Remotely Sensed Outcomes

arXiv:2411.10959v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study causal inference in experiments and quasi-experiments, where the economic outcome is imperfectly measured by a remotely sensed variable. The remotely sensed variable is low-cost, scalable, and predictive of the economic outcome in observational data; examples include satellite imagery and mobile phone activity. We model the remotely sensed variable as post-outcome: variation in the economic outcome causes variation in the remotely sensed variable. For example, changes in environmental quality cause changes in satellite imagery, not vice versa. Under this assumption, we propose a formula to nonparametrically identify the causal parameter by combining experimental and observational data. We develop a method for n^{-1/2} inference that is robust to misspecification and that does not restrict the algorithms used to process remotely sensed variables.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

PERRY: Policy Evaluation with Confidence Intervals using Auxiliary Data

arXiv:2507.20068v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Off-policy evaluation (OPE) methods estimate the value of a new reinforcement learning (RL) policy prior to deployment. Recent advances have shown that leveraging auxiliary datasets, such as those synthesized by generative models, can improve the accuracy of OPE methods. Unfortunately, such auxiliary datasets may also be biased, and existing methods for using data augmentation within OPE lack principled uncertainty quantification. In high stakes domains like healthcare, reliable uncertainty estimates are important for ensuring safe and informed deployment of RL policies. In this work, we propose two methods to construct valid confidence intervals for OPE with data augmentation. The first provides a confidence interval over $V^{\pi}(s)$, the policy value conditioned on an initial state $s$. To do so we introduce a new conformal prediction method suitable for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with continuous state spaces, extending prior work to higher-dimensional settings. Second, we consider the more common task of estimating the average policy performance over all initial states, $V^{\pi}$; we introduce a method that draws on ideas from doubly robust estimation and prediction powered inference. Across simulators spanning inventory management, robotics, healthcare, and a real healthcare dataset from MIMIC-IV, we find that our methods can effectively leverage auxiliary data and consistently produce confidence intervals that cover the ground truth policy values, unlike previously proposed methods. Our work enables a future in which OPE can provide rigorous uncertainty estimates for high-stakes domains.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Dynamic Symmetric Point Tracking: Tackling Non-ideal Reference in Analog In-memory Training

arXiv:2602.21321v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Analog in-memory computing (AIMC) performs computation directly within resistive crossbar arrays, offering an energy-efficient platform to scale large vision and language models. However, non-ideal analog device properties make the training on AIMC devices challenging. In particular, its update asymmetry can induce a systematic drift of weight updates towards a device-specific symmetric point (SP), which typically does not align with the optimum of the training objective. To mitigate this bias, most existing works assume the SP is known and pre-calibrate it to zero before training by setting the reference point as the SP. Nevertheless, calibrating AIMC devices requires costly pulse updates, and residual calibration error can directly degrade training performance. In this work, we present the first theoretical characterization of the pulse complexity of SP calibration and the resulting estimation error. We further propose a dynamic SP estimation method that tracks the SP during model training, and establishes its convergence guarantees. In addition, we develop an enhanced variant based on chopping and filtering techniques from digital signal processing. Numerical experiments demonstrate both the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

On the Residual Scaling of Looped Transformers: Stability and Transferability

arXiv:2606.18524v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Looped (weight-tied) Transformers apply a shared residual block $N$ times ($h \leftarrow h + \varepsilon\,f(h)$, same $f$ at each step), increasing effective depth without adding parameters. Prior depth-scaling analyses prescribe $\varepsilon = 1/\!\sqrt{L}$ for depth-$L$ residual networks. We show that this is insufficient for looped architectures: weight sharing makes residual updates correlated across iterations, requiring the stronger scaling $\varepsilon = 1/N$. For multi-layer blocks ($L$ unique layers looped $N$ times), we derive a factored parameterization $\varepsilon = \lambda/(N\!\sqrt{L})$ that separates the two sources of growth: $1/N$ controls the within-layer loop correlation, and $1/\!\sqrt{L}$ controls the across-layer variance. A key consequence is that the optimal learning rate depends only on the number of unique layers $L$, not on the loop count $N$, enabling direct hyperparameter transfer from small to large $N$ without retuning. Experiments on looped Transformers confirm that $1/N$ scaling improves trainability and yields better loss than $1/\!\sqrt{N}$ scaling across loop counts.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Full-Self Diagnostics (FSD): Physics-Grounded Visual Biomarker Inference from Smartphone Video via Inverse Problems and Operator Learning

arXiv:2606.19372v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present Full-Self Diagnostics (FSD), a unified mathematical framework for recovering latent physiological states from unconstrained 9-second facial videos captured by consumer smartphones. The approach integrates five mutually reinforcing components: (1) a physics-based forward model derived from the radiative transfer equation and chromophore absorption that maps camera observables to biomarker concentrations; (2) an information-theoretic observability theory proving that multi-channel visual signals (spectral, pulse, respiratory, micro-expression, and oculomotor) contain strictly increasing mutual information with physiological state; (3) a stable, Tikhonov-regularized inverse problem with domain-uniform identifiability guarantees; (4) an operator-learning formulation that enables generalization across devices, resolutions, and populations; and (5) a supervised learning procedure, interpretable as stochastic variational inference, that continuously refines the model from paired biosensor ground truth with performance improving proportionally to one over the square root of the number of paired observations. Empirical validation on 38812 real-world paired scans across 59 subjects demonstrates practical performance. Self-collected data from the lead author (glucose range 35-550 mg/dL) yields MARD of 29.86 percent with 97.57 percent of predictions in Clarke Error Grid Zones A+B and only 0.27 percent in the dangerous Zone E. A well-managed diabetic participant achieves MARD of 17 percent in the narrower 70-180 mg/dL band. These results confirm that consumer-grade facial video encodes sufficient structured information for clinically relevant, non-invasive biomarker inference under fully unconstrained conditions, with performance scaling predictably as more paired data becomes available.