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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

How to Score Experts for One-Shot MoE Expert Pruning: A Unified Formulation and Selection Principle

arXiv:2606.15716v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models reduce per-token computation through sparse expert activation, yet deployment still requires storing the full expert pool, making one-shot expert pruning a practical approach for reducing memory usage. Although effective, existing criteria are largely heuristic, and no single criterion is universally optimal. Thus, establishing a principle for selecting pruning criteria suited to different deployment objectives remains an important yet largely underexplored problem in one-shot expert pruning. To this end, we introduce a unified formulation for one-shot MoE expert pruning organized around three factors: routing frequency, gate weighting, and activation strength. The formulation yields a criteria selection principle: task-agnostic pruning should favor routed-token-averaged, gate-free activation-based criteria, whereas task-specific pruning can benefit from retaining routing-frequency and gate-weight information. Beyond this principle, the formulation also provides a systematic view of existing heuristic criteria and gives rise to two new task-agnostic criteria, Mean Activation Norm (MAN) and Mean Squared Activation Norm (MSAN). Across four representative MoE models and 16 diverse benchmarks, MAN and MSAN are consistently strong in the task-agnostic setting, obtain the top-two average ranks, and improve average performance by up to 8.8 points over the strongest baseline.

02.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Epileptogenicity alters intrahippocampal ripple propagation

Objective: Tracing the propagation of high-frequency oscillations (HFOs) aids in localizing epileptogenic regions and improving surgical outcomes. We examined how hippocampal epileptogenicity influences the propagation properties of the HFOs it generates. Methods: We analyzed non-REM sleep stereo-EEG from 49 patients (68 hemispheres) with verified hippocampal contacts. Hippocampi were stratified by excitability: 28 seizure onset zone (SOZ), 22 more-irritative non-SOZ (>6 interictal epileptiform discharges [IED]/min), and 18 less-irritative non-SOZ (

03.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

A note on the $\mathcal{W}_2$-convergence rate of the empirical measure of an ergodic $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued diffusion

arXiv:2502.07704v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In this note, we consider a Stochastic Differential Equation under a strong confluence and Lipschitz continuity assumption of the coefficients. For the unique stationary solution, we study the rate of convergence of its empirical measure toward the invariant probability measure. We provide rate for the Wasserstein distance in the mean quadratic and almost sure sense.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

A2D2: Fine-Tuning Any-Length Discrete Diffusion for Adaptive Decoding

arXiv:2606.13565v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Discrete diffusion models offer a simple and stable likelihood-based framework for sequence generation, recently extended to any-length settings via token insertion. Principled reward-guided fine-tuning for any-length discrete diffusion, however, remains largely unexplored. We introduce Fine-Tuning Any-Length Discrete Diffusion for Adaptive Decoding (A2D2), a unified framework for reward-guided fine-tuning of any-length discrete diffusion models via joint optimization of the insertion and unmasking policies together with a quality-based inference schedule. We derive the Radon-Nikodym derivative for the joint insertion-unmasking path measures, enabling theoretically guaranteed convergence to the intractable reward-tilted sequence distribution without requiring target samples. Building on this, we establish unmasking and insertion quality as tractable approaches for minimizing decoding error and introduce the Adaptive Joint Decoding (AJD) loss, which provably yields the optimal path measure that generates the reward-tilted distribution. Empirically, A2D2 improves reward optimization while enhancing generation flexibility and accuracy over prior fixed-length fine-tuning and inference-time guidance methods.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Doeblin Curves

arXiv:2606.19859v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent research on Doeblin coefficients has shed light on their usefulness as a multi-way generalization of the Dobrushin contraction coefficient for TV distance, in a separate vein from their classic role in the theory of Markov chain ergodicity. However, strong conditions, such as being bounded away from 0, are typically necessary for Doeblin coefficients to establish the existence of information contraction. Building on recently formulated concepts of nonlinear information contraction, we aim to propose a finer-grained Doeblin-based characterization of multi-way contraction behavior which yields non-vacuous contraction guarantees even for channels whose Doeblin coefficient is 0. To this end, we introduce the notion of a Doeblin curve – a nonlinear function which quantifies the contraction behavior of a Markov kernel on collections of input distributions at specific levels of divergence and power. Through the course of our analysis, we develop a new variational characterization of Doeblin coefficients, present several properties of Doeblin curves, define several versions of power-constrained Doeblin curves, and derive upper and lower bounds using our aforementioned variational characterization. We then utilize these results in diverse areas, including generalization bounds for noisy iterative optimization, error bounds for reliable computation with noisy circuits, and differential privacy guarantees for online iterative algorithms. In particular, we extend results in these areas to broader domains or group settings, leveraging Doeblin curves to reveal finer-grained contraction phenomena than Doeblin coefficients.

06.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Towards Quantum Limited Spatial Resolution of NV-Diamond Magnetometry

arXiv:2508.13438v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Optically addressable ensembles of solid-state defects, such as nitrogen vacancy (NV) centers, are a leading modality for imaging-based magnetometry, thermometry and strain sensing. However, monitoring the fluorescence of individual defects within a sub-diffraction ensemble remains an outstanding challenge that currently limits access to atomic-scale features and dynamics. For compact clusters of NVs, we formulate imaging-based atomic sensing as a low-dimensional multiparameter estimation task in which one seeks to localize each defect and quantify the field strength in its immediate vicinity. In this work, we employ optical spatial mode demultiplexing (SPADE) to enhance localization and brightness estimation accuracy at sub-diffraction scales. Specifically, we develop a two-stage sensing protocol that augments direct imaging by projecting the incoming optical field onto point spread function (PSF)-adapted, i.e., PAD spatial modes and Yuen-Kennedy-Lax (YKL) spatial modes enabling efficient extraction of emitter positions and brightnesses. The YKL-SPADE measurement employed for brightness estimation is shown to be quantum-optimal in the case of two emitters and establishes a new connection between quantum detection and estimation theories. We numerically evaluate the statistical performance of our protocol for sub-diffraction optically detected magnetic resonance (ODMR) and Rabi sensing experiments. Compared to conventional focal plane intensity measurements, our protocol improves emitter localization accuracy by 6$\times$ and brightness estimation accuracy by 2$\times$ for tightly confined ensembles, residing well below the diffraction limit.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Separable Neural Architectures as Physical World Models: from Mathematical Theory to Applications

arXiv:2606.14934v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This work introduces the Separable Neural Architecture (SNA), a function representational class combining neural approximation with tensor decomposition. The SNA decouples localized coordinate functions (atoms) from global interactions governed by a sparse, low-rank interaction object. This architecture possesses a compact and smooth inductive bias well-suited for solving partial differential equations (PDEs). When viewed as a Galerkin trial space under the variational SNA (VSNA) framework, the formulation satisfies classical variational guarantees under Lax-Milgram: well-posedness, quasi-optimality, convergence, and stability. In high-dimensional spatiotemporal–parametric PDEs, the VSNA mitigates the curse of dimensionality by scaling algebraically rather than exponentially. Exploiting an entirely factorized, tensor-native alternating least squares (ALS) optimization framework reduces this cost to linear in dimension. The VSNA is validated across elliptic, hyperbolic, and parabolic systems, demonstrating close alignment with predicted algebraic and spectral scaling rates. We showcase the SNA as a "solve once, query anywhere" physical world model via two engineering case studies: a 7D parametric manufacturing simulation and an experimental thermal-to-property inversion pipeline for Inconel 718. The VSNA executes a 1,000,000-query Monte Carlo sweep in 102s on a standard laptop CPU, yielding a 150,000x speedup over a full-grid finite element baseline hosted on an NVIDIA A100 GPU. It further enables real-time generative inverse-mode reconstructions under 100ms. These results demonstrate that the SNA serves as a compact mathematical substrate for continuous parameter manifolds to enable real-time inversion, optimization loops, and rapid uncertainty propagation.

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Toward the Whole Picture: Accumulative Fingerprint Mapping and Reconstruction for Small-Area Mobile Sensors

Small-area fingerprint sensing on mobile devices creates a fundamental mismatch between acquisition and recognition: each touch captures only a tiny, pose-varying local patch, while reliable biometric matching ultimately requires a stable and sufficiently complete fingerprint representation. Existing pipelines largely cope with this mismatch by treating repeated touches as independent partial templates, which leads to repeated registration, repeated matching, and no guarantee of adequate global coverage. In this paper, we advocate a different formulation, namely accumulative fingerprint mapping and reconstruction for small-area mobile sensing. Rather than matching every partial patch separately, the proposed perspective converts a sequence of local observations into a unified fingerprint state that is progressively refined as new touches arrive and can be matched only once after consolidation. As a concrete baseline, we present a classical pipeline that performs patch-wise structural feature extraction, feature-level registration and fusion, fingerprint map construction, and phase-based ridge reconstruction. More importantly, we position this baseline within a broader mobile fingerprint framework that integrates structured token learning, two-stage pose reasoning, and diffusion-based generative reconstruction. This viewpoint reframes mobile fingerprint recognition from multi-capture multi-match processing to accumulative map building, state refinement, and one-shot matching, offering a principled route toward efficient, pose-robust, and deployment-friendly biometrics for small-area mobile platforms. The baseline implementation has been publicly released at https://github.com/XiongjunGuan/FpReconstruction.

09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

TAB-PO: Preference Optimization with a Token-Level Adaptive Barrier for Token-Critical Structured Generation

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) is an effective and widely adopted approach for offline alignment but is poorly matched to ontology-driven structured prediction, where preferred and rejected JSON objects often differ in only a few schema-defining tokens. In this low-edit-distance regime, sequence-level DPO spreads gradient mass across non-critical serialization tokens (gradient dilution) and can reduce likelihood on rare, under-confident preferred schema tokens (token erosion). To address these limitations, we first develop a confusion-aware preference-construction strategy that augments expert-curated ambiguity patterns with empirical structured-error modes estimated from validation-set SFT predictions, synthesizing minimally perturbed, schema-valid negatives that focus preference learning on realistic ontology-level decision errors. We then introduce Token-Adaptive Barrier Preference Optimization (TAB-PO), a post-SFT objective for token-critical structured generation. TAB-PO adds a confidence-gated token-level barrier that applies supervised anchoring to under-confident schema tokens. On the public SciERC scientific information extraction task, evaluated with Llama/Qwen models from 1.5B to 70B, TAB-PO improves ontology-critical semantic-label and relational-linking metrics over SFT by 11.59% on average, wins 100% of comparisons against the strongest token-level and sequence-level DPO variants on these metrics, and surpasses leading frontier models by 14.71%, while delivering strong gains in textual grounding.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

CogGuard: Cognitive and Operational Profiling for Proactive Warning in Edge Intelligent Services

arXiv:2606.15199v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Proactive warning is an important capability for edge intelligent services, where the system predicts whether a subject will successfully complete an incoming task under strict latency and privacy constraints. Such prediction depends on both long-term static attributes and short-term dynamic states derived from historical interaction logs. Recent Large Language Models (LLMs) offer strong long-context reasoning for constructing structured profiles from these logs, but existing solutions face two challenges for edge deployment: (1) profiling methods are typically domain-specific and lack a reusable abstraction across service scenarios, and (2) fine-tuning alignment models on heterogeneous edge clusters incurs high synchronization overhead due to the variance in input sequence lengths. To address these challenges, we propose CogGuard, a proactive-warning framework for edge intelligent services. CogGuard decouples offline LLM-based profile construction from online Small Language Model (SLM)-based score prediction through a shared static-dynamic profile-to-score pipeline, and instantiates it in two representative scenarios: educational performance warning and operational task outcome warning. For efficient profile construction, we design scenario-specific profiling methods with prefix-aligned KV-cache reuse to reduce repeated encoding overhead. For edge-side model alignment, we propose a length-aware distributed fine-tuning strategy with contrastive regularization to mitigate workload imbalance on heterogeneous clusters. Experiments on education and operation datasets show that CogGuard reduces profile construction time by up to 48% and distributed fine-tuning time by 19%, while achieving MAEs of 13.4 and 5.9, respectively, on 100-point-scale warning tasks. In the largest educational setting, CogGuard reduces prediction error by 15.4% compared with the strongest baseline.

11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

A Survey on Agentic Security: Applications, Threats and Defenses

LLM-based agents are now used throughout cybersecurity. While these agents facilitate powerful and autonomous security applications, their autonomy opens up new attack surfaces, and the security community is actively building defenses to secure them. Yet the literature on this subject has grown quickly and unevenly. Existing surveys treat applications, threats, and defenses in isolation, leaving no unified account of how an agent's capabilities, vulnerabilities, and countermeasures interconnect. In this work we present the first holistic survey of the agentic security landscape, structuring the field around the fundamental pillars of Applications, Threats and Defenses. We provide a comprehensive taxonomy of over 260 papers, explaining how agents are used in downstream cybersecurity applications, inherent threats to agentic systems, and countermeasures designed to protect them. In addition, we provide detailed pillar-specific and cross-cutting analyses that show the security-lifecycle coverage of agentic applications, comparison between red-teaming and blue-teaming agents, and the adversarial use of red-teaming applications. On the threat side, we analyze the entry points and agent-loop stages that attacks target, their specificity to the agentic setting, and the threat models they assume. On the defense side, we analyze the prevailing defense strategies, their cost and security trade-offs, and where in the agent lifecycle they are deployed. We further map which defenses cover which attack classes and chart trends in agent architecture, backbone model usage, data modality coverage, and the growth of attack and defense research over time. Taken together, these findings indicate that agentic systems are structurally fragile by default and that securing them will require defenses that span the full agent lifecycle rather than single-layer fixes.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Adversarial dynamical systems characterize when data-driven learning succeeds or fails

arXiv:2407.06312v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Many systems resist analytical modeling, making data-driven inference of dynamics important. Yet data-driven methods can fail to converge or generalize, leaving open a central question: When can system behavior be learned reliably from data, and when is such learning impossible? We answer this question using adversarial dynamical systems to identify the boundary between accessible and inaccessible regimes. In Koopman operator learning, a leading framework for representing nonlinear dynamics through linear spectral objects, we design optimal data-driven spectral algorithms with convergence and certification guarantees under conditions arising broadly in physical systems. This yields a convergence theory for Koopman-operator approximations and resolves a longstanding open problem in Koopman spectral analysis. Conversely, by constructing adversarial systems, we prove matching impossibility results: without these conditions, no single-sequence limiting procedure can guarantee learning, regardless of data quality. These results sharply characterize when data-driven spectral learning can succeed and when it must fail. We validate the framework on oscillators, chaotic fluid flows and Arctic sea ice concentration forecasting. In the latter, we uncover hidden modes of Arctic sea ice decline, deliver long-range forecasts with geographic error bounds, and outperform state-of-the-art dynamical and deep learning models at substantially lower computational cost, enabling real-time deployment on standard CPUs.

13.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-08

GPR15-guided CD8<sup>+</sup> T regulatory cells control intestinal inflammation

Authors:

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) causes chronic suffering from gastrointestinal inflammation and dysfunction that can progress to colon cancer1,2. The disease prevalence is increasing and there is an urgent need to better understand its pathogenic mechanisms to improve treatment. We show that GPR15, a G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) expressed in immune cells and previously described as an entry co-factor for human and simian immunodeficiency viruses3, is a marker and homing receptor for a subset of intramucosal GPR15-guided regulatory CD8+ T lymphocytes (CD8+ TIGR). Deleterious GPR15 gene variants in humans cause defective homing of CD8+ TIGR and are associated with severe early-onset IBD. Moreover, CD8+ TIGR cells are reduced in the intestinal mucosa of sporadic IBD patients. In mice, GPR15 deficiency impairs colonic homing of CD8+ TIGR cells, leading to accumulation of inflammatory macrophages and increased susceptibility to colitis. CD8+ TIGR cells potently kill macrophages activated by intestinal damage or disease using Fas ligand (FasL) and TNF-related weak inducer of apoptosis (TWEAK). The identification of CD8+ TIGR cells yields new insights into organ-specific immune regulation and potential therapeutics for IBD.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

SAM-Deep-EIoU: Selective Mask Propagation for Multi-Object Tracking

Multi-object tracking has a heavy-tailed difficulty distribution: most frames are easy for a lightweight base tracker, while a small fraction are intrinsically hard. Video object segmentation (VOS) models can often preserve identity through the hard frames where the base tracker fails, but they are much more expensive in compute and memory. We propose selective mask propagation, a tracking algorithm that dispatches from a base tracker to a VOS model only on windows where an assignment-uncertainty signal fires. The base tracker's output is modified only when the VOS model makes a confident prediction that contradicts the base tracker's identity assignment; weak or inconclusive predictions preserve the base output. The method is training-free, treats both the base tracker and the VOS model as black boxes, and can benefit from replacing the VOS component with a more capable model. On DanceTrack, selective mask propagation improves three different base trackers. On SportsMOT, where identity preservation is central to sports analytics, SAM3-Deep-EIoU with global track association achieves state-of-the-art performance on the benchmark with 86.8 HOTA.

15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Escaping the Self-Confirmation Trap: An Execute-Distill-Verify Paradigm for Agentic Experience Learning

Experience-driven self-evolution is critical for large language model (LLM) agents to improve through open-world interaction. However, existing experience learning methods mostly rely on single-agent loops, where the same agent executes tasks, summarizes outcomes, and determines memory content. This setup makes agents vulnerable to the Self-Confirmation Trap: wrong-but-self-consistent trajectories are misidentified as successful experience, leading to cumulative errors during retrieval and reuse. To address this issue, we propose EDV, an Execute-Distill-Verify framework for reliable experience learning. In the Execute stage, multiple heterogeneous agents explore the same task space in parallel to generate diverse candidate trajectories. In the Distill stage, a dedicated third-party agent comparatively analyzes these trajectories to produce candidate experiences, reducing executor-centric summarization bias. In the Verify stage, the execution group validates candidates via a consensus mechanism, and only approved experiences are written into shared or private memory. By decoupling the three stages, EDV transforms experience learning from isolated self-reflection into collaborative construction, filtering erroneous and noisy content before memory insertion. We evaluate EDV on three challenging long-horizon benchmarks: tau2-bench, Mind2Web and MMTB. Results show EDV consistently outperforms strong baselines, validating that reliable experience construction is essential for robust agent self-evolution. Our code is available at https://github.com/shidingz/EDV.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

FlowRAG: Synergizing Explicit Reasoning via Frequency-Aware Multi-Granularity Graph Flow

arXiv:2606.17856v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Graph-based retrieval-augmented generation (GraphRAG) is effective for knowledge-intensive and multi-hop query tasks; however, many existing methods primarily seed entity-based graphs and rely on implicit semantic relevance propagation. This often (i) under-retrieves when user queries are abstract and semantically sparse at the entity level, and (ii) suffers from brittle multi-hop reasoning, where noisy activations can derail entity-to-entity transitions and corrupt the inferred relation chain, yielding unreliable conclusions. To this end, we propose \texttt{FlowRAG}, a semantic-aware retrieval framework that improves both semantic recall and explicit reasoning. Specifically, \texttt{FlowRAG} constructs a quad-level heterogeneous graph over passages, summaries, sentences, and entities, where summary nodes serve as a coarse semantic hub. At retrieval time, a dual-granularity activation module combines summary–query alignment with sentence-level matching to activate relevant entities under paraphrase and abstraction robustly. We then introduce a frequency-aware weighted flow module that routes relevance through entity–passage links weighted by within-passage term frequency, pruning noisy connections and extracting high-confidence reasoning paths as an explicit logic skeleton for generation. Extensive experiments show that \texttt{FlowRAG} obtains state-of-the-art performance on complex reasoning benchmarks.

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

PhysVLA: Towards Physically-Grounded VLA for Embodied Robotic Manipulation

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models excel at mapping visual inputs and natural language instructions directly to robotic control policies. However, because they are trained primarily to fit behavioural demonstration data, they do not explicitly enforce fundamental physical principles such as rigid-body dynamics or contact constraints. This exposes a critical physics gap: standard temporal smoothing applied on top of single-step or chunked VLAs trades trajectory quality for added failures that short-term memory cannot resolve. To bridge this gap, we introduce PhysVLA (Physics-VLA), a plug-and-play, inference-time framework designed to wrap any frozen VLA backbone without retraining, fine-tuning, or weight access, with less than 1 ms of overhead per control step. PhysVLA intercepts the predicted control action, captures only the simulator or system state, and applies a dual-layered correction: (i) a phase-aware finite-state machine that structures discrete task segments (approach, grasp, transport, and place), and (ii) a selective Euler-Lagrange gate that activates only when a dynamics oracle detects kinodynamic inconsistency. Evaluated across OpenVLA, OpenVLA-OFT, Force-VLA, and Generalist-VLA on LIBERO-Spatial with a 7-DoF Franka Panda, the framework delivers absolute success rate increases of up to 17% and stability increases of up to 19% with no per-task regressions, improves trajectory efficiency by up to 15% across all four backbones, and shows up to a 10x improvement in trajectory jerk robustness on a Robosuite Lift cross-simulator sweep. We further validate the framework on a real Agilex Piper arm with a pick-and-place task, confirming that PhysVLA transfers to physical hardware without retraining, with success-rate improvements of up to 50%, establishing physical awareness as a composable, backbone-agnostic runtime module.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Precomputing Multi-Agent Path Replanning Using Temporal Flexibility

arXiv:2601.04884v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Executing a multi-agent plan can be challenging when an agent is delayed, because this typically creates conflicts with other agents. So, we need to quickly find a new safe plan. Replanning only the delayed agent often does not yield an efficient plan, and sometimes cannot even yield a feasible one. On the other hand, replanning other agents may lead to a cascade of changes and delays, and it is computationally expensive. We show how to efficiently replan a single delayed agent by tracking and using the temporal flexibility of other agents while avoiding cascading delays. This flexibility is the maximum delay that the agent can take without changing the order with agents other than the initially delayed agent, or further delaying other agents. Our algorithm, FlexSIPP, precomputes all possible plans for the delayed agent and returns the changes to the other agents within the given scenario. We demonstrate our method in a real-world case study of replanning trains in the densely-used Dutch railway network and in the MovingAI MAPF benchmark set. Our experiments show that FlexSIPP provides effective solutions relevant to real-world adjustments, and within a reasonable timeframe.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Recovering Stranded Discrimination in Knowledge Tracing: Per-Item Bias Correction via Empirical-Bayes Shrinkage

arXiv:2606.14123v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deployed knowledge-tracing models are typically frozen after training, yet systematic per-item logit bias arises, from limited per-item expressivity in backbone architectures and from post-deployment shifts in item properties, degrading prediction quality. Global post-hoc calibrators such as Platt scaling, temperature scaling, and isotonic regression improve probability estimates but leave discriminative ability, as measured by AUC, unchanged. This AUC invariance is a structural consequence of monotone score-only transforms; recovering the stranded discrimination requires conditioning on item identity. We propose SLC (State-space Logit Correction), which converts binary observations to Gaussian pseudo-observations via Laplace/IRLS, applies empirical-Bayes shrinkage through a Kalman smoother, and fits an offset-Platt link. The state-space formulation also yields a detectability bound that characterizes the Bernoulli information floor, explaining why temporal tracking provides no benefit at current data densities. Across four datasets, five backbones, and three seeds, SLC improves AUC on all four datasets and NLL on three, with the advantage concentrating on sparse items. Cross-domain controls suggest that the same phenomenon can arise beyond education when the deployed backbone leaves entity-level bias.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Temporal Validation Changes the Apparent Public-Health Utility of Under-Five Mortality Prediction in Bangladesh: A Four-Round DHS Machine-Learning Study

arXiv:2602.03957v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Background: Under-five mortality in Bangladesh remains uneven despite national progress. DHS-based prediction models may guide targeted follow-up, but only if validation reflects future use. We examined how validation design changes apparent prediction performance. Methods: Four BDHS rounds (2011-2022; 33,962 children; 1,290 deaths) were analysed with a 26-feature pipeline and three model classes under four validation regimes, including cross-survey temporal validation (train 2011+2014, calibrate 2017, test 2022). A 32-unit ELU multilayer perceptron was selected via genetic-algorithm neural architecture search. AUROC used 2,000 bootstrap resamples; screening utility used sensitivity, PPV, and number needed to screen (NNS) at fixed capacity. Results: Validation regime altered public-health interpretation more than model class. NAS MLP AUROC ranged from 0.669 (2022-only random) to 0.775 (pooled random), with temporal AUROC 0.730. At the top-10% temporal threshold, NAS identified 152/355 deaths in 2022 (sensitivity 42.8%, PPV 13.2%, NNS 7.6). NNS across designs ranged from 5.6 to 11.0. Conclusions: Validation-regime choice changed screening workload and apparent policy value more than architecture. Temporal validation supports defensible estimates of follow-up and referral demand; DHS child-mortality studies should report sensitivity, PPV, and NNS before programmatic use.

21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

Reload-Mamba: Hierarchical Anti-Dilution State-Space Modeling for Multi-Class Semantic Segmentation

Mamba-based state space models offer linear-time long-range modeling for high-resolution dense prediction, but sequential state-space propagation can attenuate boundary-sensitive and detail-sensitive responses that are critical in multi-class semantic segmentation. We propose Reload-Mamba, a semantic segmentation framework that addresses this propagation-induced response dilution through three segmentation-specific designs: (i) a boundary-supervised local detail prior that is explicitly trained with ground-truth boundary masks to identify regions requiring response restoration; (ii) a class-uncertainty-aware Reload Gate that incorporates per-pixel class entropy from a pre-reload auxiliary head as an additional gating signal, a formulation that is informative only under multi-class dense prediction; and (iii) a hierarchical multi-level Reload mechanism that applies anti-dilution refinement at three decoder levels and fuses the restored representations top-down. Built upon a ConvNeXt-Tiny encoder with a multi-scale decoder and four-directional Mamba scanning with pixel-wise directional attention, Reload-Mamba achieves 47.9% single-scale (48.9% multi-scale) mIoU on ADE20K and 83.2% single-scale mIoU on Cityscapes. With ResNet-101 + COCO pre-training under the standard DeepLab-style protocol, Reload-Mamba reaches 87.8% mIoU on PASCAL VOC 2012 val. Controlled ablations show that each of the three segmentation-specific designs contributes beyond a direct port of the prior anti-dilution architecture proposed for binarization, cumulatively improving over the direct-port baseline by +2.2 mIoU on ADE20K.

22.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-11

Combinatorial docking and molecular generation to navigate over 100-billion molecules for prospective ligand discovery

Commercially available make-on-demand libraries now exceed 100 billion compounds, requiring over 50 years to screen on 2,000 CPU cores using conventional docking. We present two complementary approaches to address this challenge. CombiDOCK, a combinatorial docking framework, enables exhaustive screening at the 100-billion scale within 40 days. MINT-Dock, a generative framework, accelerates navigation of this space by integrating CombiDOCK with Monte Carlo Tree Search. Benchmarked on 46 diverse targets, CombiDOCK matched full-molecule docking accuracy, and MINT-Dock achieved a 4,800-fold enrichment over random selection. Compared with prior billion-scale brute-force campaigns against {sigma}2, VMAT2, and VAChT, prospective CombiDOCK screens of the 100-billion-molecule library yielded higher hit rates and more potent ligands, while MINT-Dock achieved comparable outcomes across single- and multi-target objectives with >20-fold computational cost reductions. Docking-predicted poses of the best VAChT-binding compounds were confirmed by cryo-EM structures. These methods provide exhaustive and generative paths for navigating the trillion-molecule frontier of drug discovery.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

WorldReasoner: Evaluating Whether Language Model Agents Forecast Events with Valid Reasoning

Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information. Yet evaluating whether agents genuinely forecast requires more than final-answer accuracy: a model may be correct by recalling memorized training facts, citing fabricated evidence, or producing an unsupported causal story. We present WorldReasoner, an evaluation framework for temporally valid event forecasting. Each task gives an agent a resolved forecasting question, a simulated forecast date, and access only to evidence available before that date; after resolution, the framework scores the submitted probability, cited evidence, and optional causal event graph. WorldReasoner reports three complementary axes: outcome quality against resolved answers, evidence quality over cited sources, and reasoning quality against post-resolution hindsight graphs. The benchmark is built by an agentic construction pipeline that generates forecasting questions, collects time-stamped evidence, and builds hindsight reference graphs at scale, yielding 345 resolved tasks derived from 14,141 articles with graphs covering 8,087 extracted events. Across six controlled agent settings, temporally valid retrieval is the strongest driver of outcome accuracy; causal graph construction improves key-event recovery; and correct graph-enabled forecasts are more strongly grounded in key events and relevant sources, yet agents still struggle to convert grounded evidence into calibrated probabilities.

24.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Large Fluctuations in Open Quantum Systems

arXiv:2606.11822v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study statistics of atypical measurement outcomes in the steady states of driven open quantum systems. In equilibrium, the probability distribution over the phase space, as encoded in, e.g., the Wigner function, is analytic in the phase-space coordinates. We show that this property is generically lost in driven dissipative systems: their {\it large-deviation function} develops lines and surfaces across which its derivatives are discontinuous. As an illustrative example, we consider a parametrically driven Kerr oscillator coupled linearly and/or nonlinearly to a dissipative bath. Rare fluctuations in the amplitude and phase of the induced oscillations are governed by semiclassical instanton trajectories of the corresponding Keldysh-Lindblad action. We demonstrate that a given fluctuation can be realized through multiple distinct instanton trajectories. The competition between these trajectories leads to abrupt switching of the dominant instanton and, consequently, to non-analytic features in the large-deviation function.

25.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Decay of correlations and zeros for the hard-core model

arXiv:2603.17858v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In a recent paper the last author proved that absence of complex zeros of the partition function of the hard-core model near a parameter $\lambda>0$ implies a form of correlation decay called strong spacial mixing. In this paper we investigate the reverse implication. We introduce a strengthening of strong spatial mixing that we call very strong spatial mixing (VSSM). Our main result is that if VSSM holds at a parameter $\lambda>0$ for a family of graphs, this implies that the partition function has no zeros near that parameter for each graph in the family. We also demonstrate that a closely related variant of very strong spatial mixing does not imply zero-freeness. As a consequence of our main result, we moreover obtain that VSSM implies spectral independence. Our proof relies on transforming the problem to the analysis of an induced non-autonomous dynamical system given by Möbius transformations.